You keep saying theres a record supply of condos in the pipeline...steve these were presold years ago, they will be absorbed so freaking fast it will make your head spin. Were at a 10 year low in terms of inventory Where are all these condos your talking about? I see a few boutique luxury DT here and there nothing that would relieve prices for the average joe. I do see some product along the cambie corridor and certainly in brentwood/gilmore and out towards lougheed...im not sure where your seeing this flood of inventory that you seem to think will cool off prices, i just dont see it
Steve Saretsky thanks for clarification. When im talking vancouver im talking about the downtown core and surrounding areas, i mean i do some work in new west, thats about as far as i will go. Maybe thats why i was confused. Im all for this new supply and hopefully it will help the situation. Im not sure it will be enough though.
Some units being built downtown but no way is adding more units than the growing demand. Who the heck wants to live in a condo way out in Langley? If people go that far get a detached house! As far as I am concerned the old saying location location location still holds true. I'd rather a much smaller older place in a better/closer area. While there is a cost to this they seem to hold their value better. While everything had a price correction some of those units way out there fell off a cliff while closer to the core hardly noticed.
I come from Mumbia where I was a civil engineer making about CAD $15,000/year. 500 square feet apartment cost between CAD $200,000 to $400,000 depending on location. 13 to 26 times my yearly salary. Also my wage was very good and average person only makes CAD $7,000/year there. I find Vancouver much more affordable as I make about CAD $54,000/year here and you can buy apartments 350-500,000 if you go a little east like Surrey. 6.5 - 9 times my salary. Even 700,000 downtown Vancouver condo is still cheaper based on this ratio. Whereas in Mumbia only very rich business men or Government officials can afford to buy in the downtown core. I think this is why a lot of people from India are coming here and buying. Because its very affordable compared to lots of places in the world. Also much more safer and cleaner.
A word "debate" is the one that compelled me to comment on this post. First of all thank you Steve for making this post, well done. Hopefully it will help people to make their OWN decision based on the information presented and not start bashing the messenger as I often see in social media nowadays.
Living in Victoria here .. originally hoping to buy a SFH.. adjust expectations to townhouse, then to condo, then to just renting .. then to hunting for jobs else where
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Yep... once I’m done my masters I’m planning on moving to eastern Ontario. Can get a decent house for 220,000. That’s a fricken down payment here! One of my goals in life is to be mortgage free by 35 so that sure as hell won’t happen in BC.
@@Victoriaxx08 As long as you can leverage your education and get big city or similar salary but live in the far cheaper place this is an excellent thing to do. But there is normally a reason why a house is 220k not over a million and that is the market has decided right or wrongly that the money is made in the city and thus the demand for houses from more people who can afford more. With the rise of flexible work options this may decrease, hopefully does but who knows!
The alternative to Vancouver is the Fraser valley, places like hope and chilliwack. You can still commute to Vancouver for work but prices are much more affordable
I lived in Chilliwack two years ago. After commuting for 1 month, I decided to move to somewhere closer to the city. Just too much commuting, insane to do that everyday!
The laws in New York City are so complex as well. Nothing compares to New York City real estate, but that is because it is the most densely populated city as well
What drives real estate prices in Canada is immigration (speaking as an immigrant myself). And they all go to Toronto and Vancouver. Most new immigrants don’t want to live around Canadians, but their own people. And they are all in Toronto and Vancouver. So this 250k people every year will be going to 2 places only, and will buy there. That’s an enormous amount of people for two cities that together have barely 3 million people. Add in the foreign investors and the recipe for unaffordable housing is there. There will be no respite in real estate prices as long as the immigration intake is of 250~300k per year all concentrated in two small mid sized cities.
Construction costs are very high in Vancouver. I’ve been involved with projects with a good standard of finishing for under 200$ per sq ft. So it must be just the bureaucracy is adding the other $100 a sq ft more than in Calgary
Hey Steve, you touched a little there on the new Vancouver building code, and how that will impact construction cost. Being in construction and also in real estate this is something that has had me thinking for a while. The government has nation-wide plan to implement a 5 stage building envelope requirement to combat energy efficiency that will be rolled out between now and 2032 (2032 being stage 5 meaning net zero homes). I imagine this is going to boost new construction costs massively, due to the extra amount of materials/ time/ and builders simply adapting. A win in the long run, but a punch in the balls to developers looking for a return and initial purchase for consumers. Anyways thought I might comment about this because I'm not sure if you have heard about it. Also maybe you could touch on it in your future vids. Love your stuff by the way. Yeww
Thanks for addressing this common adage that compares Vancouver to central global hubs, such as NY. These folks tend to ignore the fact that NY, London, HK have enormous values attached to their property because they are the focal points of massive economies, financial services, etc. Vancouver's property doesn't have that behind it... it seems to have risen to this level only because of its property itself. It had fallen into vogue with international moneyed elites as a place with a permissive environment to deposit their money, and the attendant speculation that followed. Really the only people who try to push the illusion that we're on par with these other alpha+ cities are those trying to justify astronomical prices because they benefit from them. With regards to what limit we reach when we're going to start seeing people move, and when we turn that corner to population loss... I couldn't speak to the data, but I know this is a dominant topic of conversation among younger people who depend on local income. I think we're starting to see it now... anecdotally. The conversations usually include talk of BC interior, or smaller communities on the island. Some discuss the East Coast. Part of the uncertainty is, several communities in these places have already started rising dramatically in cost. That being said, I'm not sure if this will matter much - those displaced I think could be replaced by temporary workers, and others with less of an intrinsic commitment to the well-being of the region. Given that this is one of only three major population centers in the country - this is of strategic importance.
Beau Tanner I disagree. Vancouver offers many small tech company’s launching and booming. Let alone amazon and Microsoft is coming and building in Vancouver downtown in the next few years. Vancouver has always been a world class city for living and now it’s only going to get a bigger boom. Vancouver itself knows this and is building a whole new transit system from VCC Clark to the West Side.
I do agree with you there. I still don’t know what is Vancouver’s main job market yet somehow the prices are astronomical. The only thing Vancouver is famous for is its natural surroundings of mountains and ocean. The city itself has a boring reputation for things like nightlife and restaurants. Toronto is known for it’s financing sector as well as manufacturing industries so we can point to those areas for wages. I look at Vancouver like Monaco, it’s a tourist destination for the wealthy not a place where the wealthy make their money.
@@jasonn2284 Vancouver's 'small tech companies', or being a 'world class city for living' doesn't put it on par with New York, London, or Hong Kong. We're not even close. There are many ways to measure this but the GaWC classification seems to be as good as any. We're roughly on par with Atlanta, Georgia. Calgary is a rung below is. I'm actually curious if we even made that rating for anything other than our outsize real estate industry. www.lboro.ac.uk/gawc/world2018t.html
My wife has a job that doesn't really exist outside Metro Vancouver, and possibly Toronto... we're gonna see how it goes in terms of her job; moving back to Japan is always an option; I've also considered the US, but I'm not sure how easy it'd be to get an ESL teaching job at a college there. We find that we can manage in the Lower Mainland for the time being, but that's it - manage. The "Canadian Dream" of home ownership (particularly a SFD) and probably kids is outta the question, because of costs; and sadly I don't see the trajectory changing course...
Canadian government is drunk off of tax revenue. They tax, tax, tax and in some cases tax on top of taxes (LTT - ONTARIO) with not much to show for it. Canadians are just too nice to complain about it. Costs are going up everywhere. Insurance, utilities, cars, gas etc. Salaries remain stagnant. This is why we see plenty of homegrown talent leave to the US to make double and we're begging Asia for talent since they can be taken advantage of by companies and paid less. Transit infrastructure is horrific even in a city like Toronto so it forces people to have to move closer to the downtown core. Imagine if it took 30mins to get from Kitchener to Toronto? With transit comes construction of communities.
I was born and raised in Toronto. I'm out of this place once I get a remote job. I love my family, but unless you are wealthy, you can't responsibly live in this city anymore (or anywhere in a 2 hour radius),
LOL, what a ridiculous post. If you can't afford a home within 2 hours of the city maybe it's time to look in the mirror. Hamilton has homes starting from 200K+
@@newbranday I do, you keep saying the same thing. You claimed again that there's nothing affordable within 2 hours of the city and that is completely bogus. I hope you get that remote job.
I saw another report that showed more people were leaving Toronto then coming. Boomers are leaving, cashing in their housing profits and buying two places. One in a smaller town and one down south. I live in a small Town of 5200 people on the St Lawrence river that is exploding with senior developments.
@@saretsky it's all about the input data. Everyone always refers to Toronto but in fact Toronto is not that big. What area is your report encompassing? I remember when driving east "Toronto" ended at Scarborough, now you can drive for another hour and still be in "Toronto". Southern Ontario's golden horseshoe is still growing rapidly, it always has.
People voluntarily move to Vancouver to work min wage job and share a studio with 4 other unrelated people. Meanwhile you have entry level labor job in places like port hardy that starts at $45k+/yr and anyone with a pulse can get an interview, and you can buy a 3 bedroom place for $100k. Natural scenery and weather there is nearly identical to any other west-coast city. So no, there's no bubble, keep hoping. Modern day people would rather struggle in large group than strive alone. It's part of human evolution, for most of human history, being in the larger group means you get to pillage the smaller group and survive, and vice versa.
Steve, we leave when we cannot resist the next better options... every demographic and family structure will have their own reasons to stay or leave. In my case my ability to save money and build wealth has been mostly taken from my generation of native born canadian without family equity. My job options are limited in 3rd tear low cost areas due to low skill labour pressures, technological displacement, and stagnant real economy. At this point in the real estate cycle 2nd tier cities just mean larger commutes and little savings in time or money due to "green" policy restrictions and zoning restrictions pushing up prices beyond real economy fundamentals for that area... However, from what I am seeing is a perfect storm brewing... the worst of right economics (wealth inequality and retier capital inflow) followed by the worst of left economics (excessive taxation regulation and a growing unhealthy degenerating dependant class) is laying the groundwork for a very ugly crime ridden emerald city and many of it's decaying outer suburbs... My personal opinion is recently Vancouver has had dramatically increasing levels of petty crime, organized crime, tent encampments, public drug use and defication, litter strewn tent squatters, drug fueled indigence, mentally unstable drifters, and a generally decaying social attitude toward others... Combine this loss of community, with a radical shift down in the personal economies average local families, and add in housing costs that strip off wealth from all but those with equity and investments and you have an environment that will breed anger, resentment, and radical political change...
You forgot Peel 🤷🏾♂️. Mississauga is a major city and Peel has more jobs than pretty much anywhere. Markham has a lot of jobs as well. As does Waterloo. Plenty of options in Ontario. Ottawa isn’t a bad option either. People have been leaving Toronto to moves to surrounding cities for a long time (or Alberta a while back). It’s just that people are moving into Toronto even faster. Can’t blame them. It’s a great city.
those are cities in the GTA though, he's considering that as one city/region which is fair. I agree with you about Ottawa and Waterloo being decent options
TheProcrastinator6 doesn’t really make sense to put a douzen cities with a population larger than B.C. or Alberta and economy to match as a city and then company it to towns the size of a city block. It renders the entire comparison useless. The region operates more as a province since they have different taxes, mayors, economies etc.
Been in Calgary for over a year, your dollar goes a lot farther in alberta than it does in B.C. you can enjoy a similar quality of life for half the income you would need in the lower mainland.
@@saretsky Have you spoken at all about insurance companies hiking prices on condo owners yet? I'm curious to see if this turns into a new trend across Canada, becoming widespread.
Ottawa is booming. New releases/pre-construction towns and singles are selling out. Pre-owned are all selling over asking..very limited supply. Towns selling around $400K, singles around $600K. I’ve met about 3 families who’ve moved from TO to Ottawa. Pretty good job growth in Ottawa too
I think a lot of people are ignorant of the options out there. You would be surprised how little people have travelled outside of their city. For the majority of people those other cities offer everything they need. Most people like to point to the options of entertainment the big cities have yet don’t partake in them. Most people who leave the expensiveness of the big cities for smaller cities find themselves better off with less travel, stress and more money in their pockets.
@@sharinglungs3226 true but the better towns are seeing prices go to the moon like kamloops for example. Anywhere half decent is going to be expensive. And even the not so half decent spots are still going up.
your hitting the nail on the head. i have an employee that’s always asking for a raise and i’m always saying no and they don’t go any where. we can almost pay less in vancouver because who want to move to any where else in canada. it sucks but it’s the reality high cost of living and we don’t have to pay much for there wage as they want to live here.
Home owners can leverage their income but renters cannot take out mortgages to pay rent. Mortgage servicing costs will drive rent prices beyond what workers without leverage can pay. Canadians can leverage themselves well past 10:1 income/house price threshold but renters will need access to debt in order to pay the associated rents. This is already happening. The NDP was promising "rental subsidies" which just boils down to a debt-servicing-subsidy for leveraged people with basement suites and rental properties. If housing prices are growing faster than wages consistently this train only goes so far no matter how much Candy the Candyman hands out. You're asking great questions. Appreciate your work.
All central banks easing and attempting to stimulate lending (next step in the US will likely be regulatory loosening on commercial bank reserves) to keep the financial asset "wealth effect" Ponzi going despite major global economic headwinds across the board. Basically every CB except for Sweden (and apparently Japan wanting to return to above zero ... good luck) is looking at ZIRP/NIRP and genuinely considering it. In Canada as you touch on so often we have had and continue having massive foreign inflows of capital into the bubble real state markets further pushing square footage costs up. Government rental and first-time stimulus is likely helping some ... but to me that doesn't scream "affordability." On top of that you cite the massive amounts of immigration which I too believe is a means of keeping markets propped up. People say aging demographics, they're one in the same. Toronto has been in another euphoric phase, my Aunt who's 30 years in the business is saying $1500+ per sq ft on new and upcoming development is the norm. Liquidity isn't slowing down and outflows out of China and Europe due to uncertainty have to go somewhere. What I find interesting is that suburban townhouse/condo development as well as larger scale houses closer to $800k-1M still aren't moving. My town, a very well established, beautiful, and safe suburb about an hour outside of Toronto (more like 1 1/2 - 2 with 403/QEW gridlock) still isn't seeing units move. New townhouse phases aren't selling nearly as fast, valuations on existing builds have leveled off, and again those larger homes are simply lingering in the market with very little interest. 3 alone on my street priced $850k+ not going anywhere and have been listed for 8 months now. Another just took it off of the market citing no interest. That MAY bode well for newer buyers to see substantial discounts going forward. Like in markets when the last buyer buys and the supply outpaces demand prices drop. That's as simple as price dynamics get ... and demand at least here is very much slowing. Poloz keeping cuts in his back pocket for the cooling cycle and likely to preserve commercial banking/insurance lending spreads. As always thanks for sharing and thank you for offering your report free of charge, that's extremely generous of you :).
Thank you Steve. A white swan to consider: home insurance. The cost of home insurance has been jumping in condos. With disasters like Australia that will affect the global interlocked reinsurance market, and insurers dropping out of risky markets, the cost of insuring your home might be the one big factor that prevents you from buying in the Lower Mainland. At some point the Fraser River will flood, and we get earthquakes regularly. Outside your bailiwick, but maybe you can comment or pass on info you've heard, from experts in insurance that you might know. By the way, really bad weather coming next week.
This is one of the my favorite videos' you've done. Its intresting to note as well that New York and California are both democratic run states and both have huge #'s of people leaving. Their also battling a host of social issues. It would intresting to know what Thomas Sowell would say about this. And no, I do not have political leanings one way or the other. Its amazimg you mentioned the level of bureaucracy involved in this industry and if govt would just get the hell out of the way how sweet that would be.
Already seeing people fleeing the city in my company, the only people they can get to work In the city are the low seniority people that they just hired because everybody just left, overcrowded, overpriced, overhyped. When you make 150k and you still live in a rat hole something is seriously warped.
It might be feasible to come up with a kind of economic 'push-pull' model to predict probabilities of population moving in or out. Might be an interesting research topic. Has anyone done this before?
The one thing that bugs me the most is when they erect a new building they don’t build them high enough. It’s tough enough to get a building made but the nimbys and the city restrict how high and more importantly how many units they can add. We have a supply issue yet they keep limiting the supply when a new building is made all the time. I’m also a little skeptical if we’ll ever have a true over supply issue. I would think developers would stagger their projects more to avoid this. The only way I can see supply increasing is either speculators exit the market like they did during gfc and/or people exit the city in masses similar to gfc.
Tell me about ridiculous building codes. Vancouver city hall fined us 10k because the carport which was built 30 years ago by the previous owner is now 2 meters too tall for the current building code. We had to chop off the gable roof. The carport was not blocking anything or hurting anyone. Stupid.
I can only speak for myself here, I work in a very niche industry as a 3D artist. My options within Canada that actually have the employment opportunties for myself are mainly in Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver. There is places I can work in random places like London Ontario, or Edmonton which would be more affordable However I would have to bank on that single company to keep me happy and employed until I retire because there is no industry hub. To be honest I would love to live someplace that is quieter with alot of nature, Northern Ontario, Many Areas of the east cost, Parts of Alberta and BC that basically offer nice scenery and nature that have much more appeal for me and all of these places are significantly cheaper than where I live now in Toronto. Basically if there was good jobs for me, I would leave Toronto, I don't hate living here, But If i was to have more take home pay and the ability to afford a better home and hold less mortgage debt I would leave. So for me personally it all comes down to Jobs. If technology advances to where the job market becomes more global/freelance based or with remote postitions, perhaps this will shake things up a bit and people will scatter around. Another tidbit of information that I would like to throw in there is that I have caught wind many years ago on the whole Agenda 21/2030 which to continue to push the population into urban city centers and out of rural towns. when I have kept this whole thing in the back of my mind I think this is not a coincidence when I compare this agenda to various situations I been witnessing in my own life where job growth is decreasing in the smaller cities in Canada, and all growing in the larger cities such as Toronto and Montreal. For that reason I do believe the cost of living surge in Canada's Cities have not happened in much of an organic fashion and is part of a bigger plan that is all happening in sequence across the planet with hyper inflation, low to negative interest rates, and severe money printing across the planet to keep everything propped up from popping the bubbles they create in all types of markets including housing.
Happy New Year Steve. I noticed that you have recently collaborated with formafist. I wonder if you have considered doing a live stream with Owen Biggie Bigland? I would like to see that click bait.
Let’s call this for what it is. The populous has been sold on the idea that the BEST way to accrue wealth is the purchase of a home and generating equity. My generation X was sold on that by the boomers and their generation sold it again to the millennials. Everyone has been sold this notion that the best way to accrue wealth is homeownership and for the most part the boomers have been the number one recipient of this. With the aging population central banks are scared silly that this generation will be wiped out in a housing downturn which inevitably they will be. So for the moment they drive down interest rates just to keep things static. This can not run forever. Generational discontentment occurring and the Y and Z generation will ultimately vote for change and frankly the boomer generation will die and have less voting power. The re distribution of wealth will occur like it or not but we really have to ask ourselves is that 3000sf house in the burbs really what we want. I believe that there will be a dynamic shift over the next ten years so to demographics and preferences in the housing industry. What was will not be. Time to get in front of the curve and when the generation x any y start to inherit these bohemeth homes they will be discarded like yesterday’s avocado and toast. Just my take.
Christoph could be 20 you are right. First baby boomer is now turning 74 so may take longer with miracle of modern science and enhanced life spans. A lot of smokers in that generation though.
Go Live Why does every know it all believe everyone that is a housing Bear rents? Is there no logic in thinking that a bull market in real estate over the past 10 years will eventually come to an end? Is this just crazy? And for the record I don’t rent!! And again I don’t live with my parents. And no not in the basement. For everybody else keep praying and hoping the central banks and Chinese buyers keep showing up. Pretty weak if you ask me.
Hi Steve! Thanks for the video! Are a larger percentage of housing starts attributed to apartment building rentals? I’ve noticed in the last few years developers have been renting entire buildings instead of bringing them to market, However the rents for these units tend to be quite high for less space. My question is, if governments favour building rental buildings, what happens to real estate prices, if anything? I would guess that any supply brings down both rents and real estate prices, but i thought perhaps less real estate coming to market because developers choose to build rental buildings might make the price of real estate go up. I have bought condos when my personal financing allows but I’m wondering if I should be more strategic with the timing of my next purchase. Your thoughts would be much appreciated. Sincerely, AL
I really appreciate your videos so please keep them up. One suggestion, that is rather arbitrary but I think you should tweak your closing line. "I hope this video helped, otherwise see you next week" is what you say but you should really drop the "otherwise" and just say I'll see you next week. Adding otherwise sounds like you're doubting your content and then if the video didnt help why would someone come back next week. Just seems like a less then compelling and confident way to end your videos which absolutely do help. Regardless keep up the great work!
What is the threshold for people to leave the Vancouver market you ask? Answer in my view.When they can no longer service any more debt to enable them to exist on that untenable day to day basis that they have become addicted to.Moreover,Any likely accelerated conflict in the Middle East will drive oil prices so high that the world economy would be cut off at the knees.The last point not withstanding.Walk into any mall during the last two weeks of Jan and it will appear like a ghost town while the debt junkies walk around like zombies after the implications of latest credit card statement sinks in.
I think you nailed it with the lack of opportunity/desirability of other locations in Canada. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I have a friend you has a drainage problem in his house. Had 3 contractors around to give a price for his drain tiles to be replaced and the general consensus was $30-40k with about 1/3 of that being cost for local government compliance. Needless to say, NO ONE got the job. And the rental suite that was going to be built won’t go ahead. You would think, with Government policy makers being the intellectual super powers they are *cough*, they would understand they ARE the cause of this current problem. No, it’s not laundered foreign money, or any of the other convieniant causes they always blame. On the whole, it’s THEM.
Very good or re govt & codes. U r just touching the surface there on the level of incompetence, corruption (planners/industry/govt benefit-nobody else), harm.
In Toronto there is no hypothetical point when people start leaving. Simply because there are other points that will shoot much earlier than people willing to leave. One of them is inflation, another one is wage growth. It is much easier to explain to employers that you can't survive on their wage rather than force large number of Torontonians to leave. It is much easier to inflate all prices(including wages) rather than ask landlords to go deeper into negative cashflow. Add here that average newcomer has ~20k per person and he doesn't care how much it costs to live in Toronto. His primary goal is to adapt in Canada, get his first job, become a Canadian...And Toronto is 30% of entire Canada's job market, such newcomer is in the right place and it doesnt matter if condo costs 2300/mo or 2600/mo. In fact, I predict $3000/mo for 1bedroom before you even have a chance to vote on next federal elections. And no, no population decrease.
Not the least important thing is pentup demand from the millenials who live in mom's basement. Some people try to move into GTA suburbs to make it more affordable (in most cases its not because GoTrain costs a lot). But for every person that even tries to save some bucks, we have several aging millenials who are sick to leave in mom's basement. These guys will make some significant pressure on available listings in Toronto in next several years.
You need to get out more and meet new immigrants. I’ve met quite a few, some of whom are making it work from the sale of their homes back home. With that said they all complain about the prices here. They all have in the back of their head they might leave. Toronto has a breaking point and I don’t think it’s far off from where we are. Employers aren’t suppressing wages because the employees aren’t asking for raises. Employees are leaving jobs for higher wages their current employers can’t afford to give. I know a few people who left Toronto and won’t come back because they can’t afford it. We’re already losing high paying jobs. The compression will come it just has a delay of a year. You also underestimate the young, they’re more inclined to move to affordable places than stay where they grew up. You can see it in how outside cities have had their population expand and their real estate market increase.
@@sharinglungs3226 Bro, stop BSing me. I recently was renting out a room. Three coop students from Windsor had paid coop internship in Toronto and they were asking to live TOGETHER in a single tiny room. WTF? Even for a single person affording this room on minimum wage is easy, taking only 50% of her after tax income...Its not an affordability issue, it is greed and a culture to eat avocado toasts and wear beats headsets in TTC subway. And there is no such thing as "Employer can't afford to pay more". If all prices around you are growing, as employer you have all the rights in the world to adjust your product pricing too upwards. Moreover, if you don't do that and struggle to survive, it only can mean that you are an idiot, not a businessman. There is so many excuses people make just to keep respecting value of Canadian dollars. While the truth is, CAD is a waste, a garbage with deteriorationg value every single day. Deal with it, you can't change it by whining.
I heard about the NYC excodus too. I understand ex NYers are flooding to tax haven States like Florida(0% tax) where most are heading. I assume it’s the high income earners. The presidential candidates are all seemed to be on the tax the wealthy campaign. However I’m interested to see the demographics. Specially, if the wealthy class who’s gotten away with moderate tax for their entire career are finally fed up with tax increases. And these wealthy types are baby boomers ready for retirement. Note this is largest retirement group in history. So could explain that after 200 years, NYC is seeing a less than 1% population decrease. The income will continue to flow into their bank account no matter where they’re located so why not a tax haven state where it’s sunny 24/7. Canadians do not have the option of moving to an ultra low income tax province. So even if my theory is way off I don’t think there’s much of a concern for Vancouver and Toronto. NYC has been a magnet for attracting the world to live and work for over 125 years. I cannot say that about our Canada’s two largest city. It’s only been since 1986 Expo and Whistler we were put on the world map. Eventually, some kinda population correction will happen as far as consistent immigration. Though less than 1% of the population is hardly a mass exodus. And we don’t have as many ultra rich execs with their unlimited stock buybacks as NYers. Demographic here consist of 9-5 workers and immigrants living off their family’s wealth. And even the wealth immigrates have stopped buying $10 million detached.
Steve Saretsky Correct on the provincial portion but the federal remains the same. I believe the US is 100% done on the State. So every percentage less is one percent saved in taxes. Correct me if I’m wrong.
NY too expensive making Toronto area the place to be. ''Toronto is going to be the mini NY''. (I said that at recess when I was in middle school in the mid 90s. Not even sure why the topic came up then) With all that is going on globally, Canada is always looked at as the safe haven. There is no reason to leave once u get here for many immigrants. Just unfortunate they let anyone in now with no credentials and Toronto has become the wild-west with gangs. The gta is always going to be expensive. And if you leave Toronto for larger commute time. You price yourself out from moving back into Toronto. Just the way she goes..when the 416 goes up. Ppl move out to the 905. From there it's retirement and peaceful living. To summarize 2020 spring market is going to be fairly hot. 2021 even hotter putting the GTA back into peak prices of 2017. And those that sold will look back and say why did I do that. Or why didn't I buy then referring to 2018. I'm already saying why didn't I sell my place and buy that home I saw in 2018. Just like in 08-2012. Ppl panicked and sold. And now have rented since. Many sold after the peak price in 2017 thinking it'd going to crash. But are still renting and will continue to in hopes of it crashing. But are just pricing themselves out once they figure all the money wasted to rent could of gone into their home.
If I wasn't making good money in Vancouver I would leave. I bet sane people in LA, NYC, San Fran, etc. are doing the same. I grew up in northern BC so i'm very willing to go back to a smaller city in BC or even a small town.
GearsDemon I’ve lived all over the country, in small towns and large metropolitan areas across Canada: BC, ON, NWT, QC, NB and AB. In my opinion, there’s no where else like Vancouver, thus, I am not too surprised that many view it as an exceptional place, ergo, everyone is shaped by their experiences and view the world under a unique lens. On a side note, I remember how amazing it was to grow up in Kelowna and how I would never want to live there now, amazing how things change too. ( I still visit though😜).
You keep saying theres a record supply of condos in the pipeline...steve these were presold years ago, they will be absorbed so freaking fast it will make your head spin. Were at a 10 year low in terms of inventory
Where are all these condos your talking about? I see a few boutique luxury DT here and there nothing that would relieve prices for the average joe.
I do see some product along the cambie corridor and certainly in brentwood/gilmore and out towards lougheed...im not sure where your seeing this flood of inventory that you seem to think will cool off prices, i just dont see it
Steve Saretsky thanks for clarification. When im talking vancouver im talking about the downtown core and surrounding areas, i mean i do some work in new west, thats about as far as i will go. Maybe thats why i was confused.
Im all for this new supply and hopefully it will help the situation. Im not sure it will be enough though.
2,000 rentals in the 416 alone right now: ruclips.net/video/l9M7z3gW7G8/видео.html
Some units being built downtown but no way is adding more units than the growing demand. Who the heck wants to live in a condo way out in Langley? If people go that far get a detached house! As far as I am concerned the old saying location location location still holds true. I'd rather a much smaller older place in a better/closer area. While there is a cost to this they seem to hold their value better. While everything had a price correction some of those units way out there fell off a cliff while closer to the core hardly noticed.
I come from Mumbia where I was a civil engineer making about CAD $15,000/year. 500 square feet apartment cost between CAD $200,000 to $400,000 depending on location. 13 to 26 times my yearly salary. Also my wage was very good and average person only makes CAD $7,000/year there.
I find Vancouver much more affordable as I make about CAD $54,000/year here and you can buy apartments 350-500,000 if you go a little east like Surrey. 6.5 - 9 times my salary. Even 700,000 downtown Vancouver condo is still cheaper based on this ratio. Whereas in Mumbia only very rich business men or Government officials can afford to buy in the downtown core.
I think this is why a lot of people from India are coming here and buying. Because its very affordable compared to lots of places in the world. Also much more safer and cleaner.
A word "debate" is the one that compelled me to comment on this post. First of all thank you Steve for making this post, well done. Hopefully it will help people to make their OWN decision based on the information presented and not start bashing the messenger as I often see in social media nowadays.
Always a pleasure watching your video’s.
Thank you Steve!
Living in Victoria here .. originally hoping to buy a SFH.. adjust expectations to townhouse, then to condo, then to just renting .. then to hunting for jobs else where
You need to adjust your expectations to a cardboard box.
Bc C No credit, no problem, I can set you up. In a nice, deluxe, custom waxed-cardboard technology, fridge box. Imagine the possibilities, make it your dream west coast home.
Self employed? This is your lucky day. Get one of the last, retirement packages. Before they are all gone. For only, a small, extra payment plan, you can get directions, to all the best railway tunnels, and other fabulous locations.
Be the envy of your friends. Say, “I’m not on holiday, I live here”
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Yep... once I’m done my masters I’m planning on moving to eastern Ontario. Can get a decent house for 220,000. That’s a fricken down payment here! One of my goals in life is to be mortgage free by 35 so that sure as hell won’t happen in BC.
@@Victoriaxx08 As long as you can leverage your education and get big city or similar salary but live in the far cheaper place this is an excellent thing to do. But there is normally a reason why a house is 220k not over a million and that is the market has decided right or wrongly that the money is made in the city and thus the demand for houses from more people who can afford more. With the rise of flexible work options this may decrease, hopefully does but who knows!
The alternative to Vancouver is the Fraser valley, places like hope and chilliwack. You can still commute to Vancouver for work but prices are much more affordable
I lived in Chilliwack two years ago. After commuting for 1 month, I decided to move to somewhere closer to the city. Just too much commuting, insane to do that everyday!
It’s an option for those who can’t afford to live in Vancouver, better than being priced out forever
The laws in New York City are so complex as well. Nothing compares to New York City real estate, but that is because it is the most densely populated city as well
What drives real estate prices in Canada is immigration (speaking as an immigrant myself). And they all go to Toronto and Vancouver. Most new immigrants don’t want to live around Canadians, but their own people. And they are all in Toronto and Vancouver. So this 250k people every year will be going to 2 places only, and will buy there. That’s an enormous amount of people for two cities that together have barely 3 million people. Add in the foreign investors and the recipe for unaffordable housing is there. There will be no respite in real estate prices as long as the immigration intake is of 250~300k per year all concentrated in two small mid sized cities.
Construction costs are very high in Vancouver. I’ve been involved with projects with a good standard of finishing for under 200$ per sq ft. So it must be just the bureaucracy is adding the other $100 a sq ft more than in Calgary
Hey Steve, you touched a little there on the new Vancouver building code, and how that will impact construction cost. Being in construction and also in real estate this is something that has had me thinking for a while.
The government has nation-wide plan to implement a 5 stage building envelope requirement to combat energy efficiency that will be rolled out between now and 2032 (2032 being stage 5 meaning net zero homes). I imagine this is going to boost new construction costs massively, due to the extra amount of materials/ time/ and builders simply adapting. A win in the long run, but a punch in the balls to developers looking for a return and initial purchase for consumers. Anyways thought I might comment about this because I'm not sure if you have heard about it. Also maybe you could touch on it in your future vids. Love your stuff by the way. Yeww
Also I noticed the building value portion on the bcassessment jumped pretty significantly this year in my area (southern Okanagan)
Thanks for addressing this common adage that compares Vancouver to central global hubs, such as NY.
These folks tend to ignore the fact that NY, London, HK have enormous values attached to their property because they are the focal points of massive economies, financial services, etc.
Vancouver's property doesn't have that behind it... it seems to have risen to this level only because of its property itself. It had fallen into vogue with international moneyed elites as a place with a permissive environment to deposit their money, and the attendant speculation that followed.
Really the only people who try to push the illusion that we're on par with these other alpha+ cities are those trying to justify astronomical prices because they benefit from them.
With regards to what limit we reach when we're going to start seeing people move, and when we turn that corner to population loss... I couldn't speak to the data, but I know this is a dominant topic of conversation among younger people who depend on local income. I think we're starting to see it now... anecdotally. The conversations usually include talk of BC interior, or smaller communities on the island. Some discuss the East Coast.
Part of the uncertainty is, several communities in these places have already started rising dramatically in cost.
That being said, I'm not sure if this will matter much - those displaced I think could be replaced by temporary workers, and others with less of an intrinsic commitment to the well-being of the region. Given that this is one of only three major population centers in the country - this is of strategic importance.
Beau Tanner I disagree. Vancouver offers many small tech company’s launching and booming. Let alone amazon and Microsoft is coming and building in Vancouver downtown in the next few years. Vancouver has always been a world class city for living and now it’s only going to get a bigger boom. Vancouver itself knows this and is building a whole new transit system from VCC Clark to the West Side.
I do agree with you there. I still don’t know what is Vancouver’s main job market yet somehow the prices are astronomical. The only thing Vancouver is famous for is its natural surroundings of mountains and ocean. The city itself has a boring reputation for things like nightlife and restaurants. Toronto is known for it’s financing sector as well as manufacturing industries so we can point to those areas for wages. I look at Vancouver like Monaco, it’s a tourist destination for the wealthy not a place where the wealthy make their money.
@@jasonn2284 Vancouver's 'small tech companies', or being a 'world class city for living' doesn't put it on par with New York, London, or Hong Kong. We're not even close.
There are many ways to measure this but the GaWC classification seems to be as good as any. We're roughly on par with Atlanta, Georgia. Calgary is a rung below is. I'm actually curious if we even made that rating for anything other than our outsize real estate industry.
www.lboro.ac.uk/gawc/world2018t.html
Your camera focusing on that picture on the wall
My wife has a job that doesn't really exist outside Metro Vancouver, and possibly Toronto... we're gonna see how it goes in terms of her job; moving back to Japan is always an option; I've also considered the US, but I'm not sure how easy it'd be to get an ESL teaching job at a college there. We find that we can manage in the Lower Mainland for the time being, but that's it - manage. The "Canadian Dream" of home ownership (particularly a SFD) and probably kids is outta the question, because of costs; and sadly I don't see the trajectory changing course...
Canadian government is drunk off of tax revenue. They tax, tax, tax and in some cases tax on top of taxes (LTT - ONTARIO) with not much to show for it. Canadians are just too nice to complain about it. Costs are going up everywhere. Insurance, utilities, cars, gas etc. Salaries remain stagnant. This is why we see plenty of homegrown talent leave to the US to make double and we're begging Asia for talent since they can be taken advantage of by companies and paid less. Transit infrastructure is horrific even in a city like Toronto so it forces people to have to move closer to the downtown core. Imagine if it took 30mins to get from Kitchener to Toronto? With transit comes construction of communities.
I was born and raised in Toronto. I'm out of this place once I get a remote job. I love my family, but unless you are wealthy, you can't responsibly live in this city anymore (or anywhere in a 2 hour radius),
LOL, what a ridiculous post. If you can't afford a home within 2 hours of the city maybe it's time to look in the mirror. Hamilton has homes starting from 200K+
@@JaBlanche I think you are missing the point.
@@newbranday I do, you keep saying the same thing. You claimed again that there's nothing affordable within 2 hours of the city and that is completely bogus. I hope you get that remote job.
I saw another report that showed more people were leaving Toronto then coming. Boomers are leaving, cashing in their housing profits and buying two places. One in a smaller town and one down south. I live in a small Town of 5200 people on the St Lawrence river that is exploding with senior developments.
@@saretsky it's all about the input data. Everyone always refers to Toronto but in fact Toronto is not that big. What area is your report encompassing? I remember when driving east "Toronto" ended at Scarborough, now you can drive for another hour and still be in "Toronto". Southern Ontario's golden horseshoe is still growing rapidly, it always has.
Generally, the last in usually doesn't see the edge of the cliff.
People voluntarily move to Vancouver to work min wage job and share a studio with 4 other unrelated people. Meanwhile you have entry level labor job in places like port hardy that starts at $45k+/yr and anyone with a pulse can get an interview, and you can buy a 3 bedroom place for $100k. Natural scenery and weather there is nearly identical to any other west-coast city. So no, there's no bubble, keep hoping. Modern day people would rather struggle in large group than strive alone. It's part of human evolution, for most of human history, being in the larger group means you get to pillage the smaller group and survive, and vice versa.
Steve, we leave when we cannot resist the next better options... every demographic and family structure will have their own reasons to stay or leave. In my case my ability to save money and build wealth has been mostly taken from my generation of native born canadian without family equity. My job options are limited in 3rd tear low cost areas due to low skill labour pressures, technological displacement, and stagnant real economy. At this point in the real estate cycle 2nd tier cities just mean larger commutes and little savings in time or money due to "green" policy restrictions and zoning restrictions pushing up prices beyond real economy fundamentals for that area... However, from what I am seeing is a perfect storm brewing... the worst of right economics (wealth inequality and retier capital inflow) followed by the worst of left economics (excessive taxation regulation and a growing unhealthy degenerating dependant class) is laying the groundwork for a very ugly crime ridden emerald city and many of it's decaying outer suburbs... My personal opinion is recently Vancouver has had dramatically increasing levels of petty crime, organized crime, tent encampments, public drug use and defication, litter strewn tent squatters, drug fueled indigence, mentally unstable drifters, and a generally decaying social attitude toward others... Combine this loss of community, with a radical shift down in the personal economies average local families, and add in housing costs that strip off wealth from all but those with equity and investments and you have an environment that will breed anger, resentment, and radical political change...
Excellent points. Welcome to Gotham city
You forgot Peel 🤷🏾♂️. Mississauga is a major city and Peel has more jobs than pretty much anywhere. Markham has a lot of jobs as well. As does Waterloo.
Plenty of options in Ontario. Ottawa isn’t a bad option either. People have been leaving Toronto to moves to surrounding cities for a long time (or Alberta a while back).
It’s just that people are moving into Toronto even faster. Can’t blame them. It’s a great city.
those are cities in the GTA though, he's considering that as one city/region which is fair. I agree with you about Ottawa and Waterloo being decent options
TheProcrastinator6 doesn’t really make sense to put a douzen cities with a population larger than B.C. or Alberta and economy to match as a city and then company it to towns the size of a city block. It renders the entire comparison useless. The region operates more as a province since they have different taxes, mayors, economies etc.
Been in Calgary for over a year, your dollar goes a lot farther in alberta than it does in B.C. you can enjoy a similar quality of life for half the income you would need in the lower mainland.
I've been daydreaming about alternatives in Canada for a couple years now, half wishing I was American just for that 1 reason.
@@saretsky Have you spoken at all about insurance companies hiking prices on condo owners yet? I'm curious to see if this turns into a new trend across Canada, becoming widespread.
Ottawa is booming. New releases/pre-construction towns and singles are selling out. Pre-owned are all selling over asking..very limited supply. Towns selling around $400K, singles around $600K. I’ve met about 3 families who’ve moved from TO to Ottawa. Pretty good job growth in Ottawa too
I agree Steve. There is no alternative in Canada. They would need to pay people to move to those cities.
I think a lot of people are ignorant of the options out there. You would be surprised how little people have travelled outside of their city. For the majority of people those other cities offer everything they need. Most people like to point to the options of entertainment the big cities have yet don’t partake in them. Most people who leave the expensiveness of the big cities for smaller cities find themselves better off with less travel, stress and more money in their pockets.
@@sharinglungs3226 true but the better towns are seeing prices go to the moon like kamloops for example. Anywhere half decent is going to be expensive. And even the not so half decent spots are still going up.
your hitting the nail on the head. i have an employee that’s always asking for a raise and i’m always saying no and they don’t go any where. we can almost pay less in vancouver because who want to move to any where else in canada. it sucks but it’s the reality high cost of living and we don’t have to pay much for there wage as they want to live here.
Home owners can leverage their income but renters cannot take out mortgages to pay rent. Mortgage servicing costs will drive rent prices beyond what workers without leverage can pay. Canadians can leverage themselves well past 10:1 income/house price threshold but renters will need access to debt in order to pay the associated rents.
This is already happening. The NDP was promising "rental subsidies" which just boils down to a debt-servicing-subsidy for leveraged people with basement suites and rental properties.
If housing prices are growing faster than wages consistently this train only goes so far no matter how much Candy the Candyman hands out.
You're asking great questions. Appreciate your work.
I'm not planning to leave. Just rent for life.
Homeownership is overrated
Ya! Have fun paying property taxes and funding things for the rest of us, suckers!!
Ottawa. Other sites in southern Ontario
All central banks easing and attempting to stimulate lending (next step in the US will likely be regulatory loosening on commercial bank reserves) to keep the financial asset "wealth effect" Ponzi going despite major global economic headwinds across the board. Basically every CB except for Sweden (and apparently Japan wanting to return to above zero ... good luck) is looking at ZIRP/NIRP and genuinely considering it.
In Canada as you touch on so often we have had and continue having massive foreign inflows of capital into the bubble real state markets further pushing square footage costs up. Government rental and first-time stimulus is likely helping some ... but to me that doesn't scream "affordability." On top of that you cite the massive amounts of immigration which I too believe is a means of keeping markets propped up. People say aging demographics, they're one in the same. Toronto has been in another euphoric phase, my Aunt who's 30 years in the business is saying $1500+ per sq ft on new and upcoming development is the norm. Liquidity isn't slowing down and outflows out of China and Europe due to uncertainty have to go somewhere.
What I find interesting is that suburban townhouse/condo development as well as larger scale houses closer to $800k-1M still aren't moving. My town, a very well established, beautiful, and safe suburb about an hour outside of Toronto (more like 1 1/2 - 2 with 403/QEW gridlock) still isn't seeing units move. New townhouse phases aren't selling nearly as fast, valuations on existing builds have leveled off, and again those larger homes are simply lingering in the market with very little interest. 3 alone on my street priced $850k+ not going anywhere and have been listed for 8 months now. Another just took it off of the market citing no interest. That MAY bode well for newer buyers to see substantial discounts going forward. Like in markets when the last buyer buys and the supply outpaces demand prices drop. That's as simple as price dynamics get ... and demand at least here is very much slowing. Poloz keeping cuts in his back pocket for the cooling cycle and likely to preserve commercial banking/insurance lending spreads.
As always thanks for sharing and thank you for offering your report free of charge, that's extremely generous of you :).
Thank you Steve. A white swan to consider: home insurance. The cost of home insurance has been jumping in condos. With disasters like Australia that will affect the global interlocked reinsurance market, and insurers dropping out of risky markets, the cost of insuring your home might be the one big factor that prevents you from buying in the Lower Mainland. At some point the Fraser River will flood, and we get earthquakes regularly. Outside your bailiwick, but maybe you can comment or pass on info you've heard, from experts in insurance that you might know. By the way, really bad weather coming next week.
This is one of the my favorite videos' you've done. Its intresting to note as well that New York and California are both democratic run states and both have huge #'s of people leaving. Their also battling a host of social issues. It would intresting to know what Thomas Sowell would say about this. And no, I do not have political leanings one way or the other. Its amazimg you mentioned the level of bureaucracy involved in this industry and if govt would just get the hell out of the way how sweet that would be.
Here's an IDEA People are RETIRING they have $! They don't need to be in a (BIG CITY). They can Retire, and Outflow. Vancouver Island=FLOW $$$$$$.
Already seeing people fleeing the city in my company, the only people they can get to work In the city are the low seniority people that they just hired because everybody just left, overcrowded, overpriced, overhyped. When you make 150k and you still live in a rat hole something is seriously warped.
It might be feasible to come up with a kind of economic 'push-pull' model to predict probabilities of population moving in or out. Might be an interesting research topic. Has anyone done this before?
The one thing that bugs me the most is when they erect a new building they don’t build them high enough. It’s tough enough to get a building made but the nimbys and the city restrict how high and more importantly how many units they can add. We have a supply issue yet they keep limiting the supply when a new building is made all the time. I’m also a little skeptical if we’ll ever have a true over supply issue. I would think developers would stagger their projects more to avoid this. The only way I can see supply increasing is either speculators exit the market like they did during gfc and/or people exit the city in masses similar to gfc.
Tell me about ridiculous building codes. Vancouver city hall fined us 10k because the carport which was built 30 years ago by the previous owner is now 2 meters too tall for the current building code. We had to chop off the gable roof. The carport was not blocking anything or hurting anyone. Stupid.
East Montreal is not too bad for an english only speaker. I live there, I barely know any french. It's the income tax that is downright scary
Very interesting stuff
I can only speak for myself here, I work in a very niche industry as a 3D artist. My options within Canada that actually have the employment opportunties for myself are mainly in Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver. There is places I can work in random places like London Ontario, or Edmonton which would be more affordable However I would have to bank on that single company to keep me happy and employed until I retire because there is no industry hub.
To be honest I would love to live someplace that is quieter with alot of nature, Northern Ontario, Many Areas of the east cost, Parts of Alberta and BC that basically offer nice scenery and nature that have much more appeal for me and all of these places are significantly cheaper than where I live now in Toronto.
Basically if there was good jobs for me, I would leave Toronto, I don't hate living here, But If i was to have more take home pay and the ability to afford a better home and hold less mortgage debt I would leave. So for me personally it all comes down to Jobs. If technology advances to where the job market becomes more global/freelance based or with remote postitions, perhaps this will shake things up a bit and people will scatter around.
Another tidbit of information that I would like to throw in there is that I have caught wind many years ago on the whole Agenda 21/2030 which to continue to push the population into urban city centers and out of rural towns. when I have kept this whole thing in the back of my mind I think this is not a coincidence when I compare this agenda to various situations I been witnessing in my own life where job growth is decreasing in the smaller cities in Canada, and all growing in the larger cities such as Toronto and Montreal. For that reason I do believe the cost of living surge in Canada's Cities have not happened in much of an organic fashion and is part of a bigger plan that is all happening in sequence across the planet with hyper inflation, low to negative interest rates, and severe money printing across the planet to keep everything propped up from popping the bubbles they create in all types of markets including housing.
People will start to leave when they learn basic mathematics. Many have already done so, which is why the HWY's are ridiculous!
Happy New Year Steve. I noticed that you have recently collaborated with formafist. I wonder if you have considered doing a live stream with Owen Biggie Bigland? I would like to see that click bait.
Let’s call this for what it is. The populous has been sold on the idea that the BEST way to accrue wealth is the purchase of a home and generating equity. My generation X was sold on that by the boomers and their generation sold it again to the millennials. Everyone has been sold this notion that the best way to accrue wealth is homeownership and for the most part the boomers have been the number one recipient of this.
With the aging population central banks are scared silly that this generation will be wiped out in a housing downturn which inevitably they will be. So for the moment they drive down interest rates just to keep things static. This can not run forever.
Generational discontentment occurring and the Y and Z generation will ultimately vote for change and frankly the boomer generation will die and have less voting power. The re distribution of wealth will occur like it or not but we really have to ask ourselves is that 3000sf house in the burbs really what we want. I believe that there will be a dynamic shift over the next ten years so to demographics and preferences in the housing industry. What was will not be. Time to get in front of the curve and when the generation x any y start to inherit these bohemeth homes they will be discarded like yesterday’s avocado and toast.
Just my take.
20 years from now will be much more noticeable then 10. But I agree.
Christoph could be 20 you are right. First baby boomer is now turning 74 so may take longer with miracle of modern science and enhanced life spans. A lot of smokers in that generation though.
Go Live Why does every know it all believe everyone that is a housing Bear rents? Is there no logic in thinking that a bull market in real estate over the past 10 years will eventually come to an end? Is this just crazy? And for the record I don’t rent!! And again I don’t live with my parents. And no not in the basement.
For everybody else keep praying and hoping the central banks and Chinese buyers keep showing up. Pretty weak if you ask me.
There are over 2,000 rentals vacancies in Toronto right now: ruclips.net/video/l9M7z3gW7G8/видео.html
📈📈📈📈📈📈📈📈2020 Vancouver
Yup. That peak and subsequent downturn in your little photo is accurate. Prices are trending down.
Hi Steve! Thanks for the video!
Are a larger percentage of housing starts attributed to apartment building rentals?
I’ve noticed in the last few years developers have been renting entire buildings instead of bringing them to market,
However the rents for these units tend to be quite high for less space.
My question is, if governments favour building rental buildings, what happens to real estate prices, if anything?
I would guess that any supply brings down both rents and real estate prices, but i thought perhaps less real estate coming to market because developers choose to build rental buildings might make the price of real estate go up.
I have bought condos when my personal financing allows but I’m wondering if I should be more strategic with the timing of my next purchase.
Your thoughts would be much appreciated.
Sincerely, AL
I really appreciate your videos so please keep them up. One suggestion, that is rather arbitrary but I think you should tweak your closing line. "I hope this video helped, otherwise see you next week" is what you say but you should really drop the "otherwise" and just say I'll see you next week. Adding otherwise sounds like you're doubting your content and then if the video didnt help why would someone come back next week. Just seems like a less then compelling and confident way to end your videos which absolutely do help. Regardless keep up the great work!
What is the threshold for people to leave the Vancouver market you ask? Answer in my view.When they can no longer service any more debt to enable them to exist on that untenable day to day basis that they have become addicted to.Moreover,Any likely accelerated conflict in the Middle East will drive oil prices so high that the world economy would be cut off at the knees.The last point not withstanding.Walk into any mall during the last two weeks of Jan and it will appear like a ghost town while the debt junkies walk around like zombies after the implications of latest credit card statement sinks in.
I think you nailed it with the lack of opportunity/desirability of other locations in Canada. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
I have a friend you has a drainage problem in his house. Had 3 contractors around to give a price for his drain tiles to be replaced and the general consensus was $30-40k with about 1/3 of that being cost for local government compliance.
Needless to say, NO ONE got the job. And the rental suite that was going to be built won’t go ahead.
You would think, with Government policy makers being the intellectual super powers they are *cough*, they would understand they ARE the cause of this current problem.
No, it’s not laundered foreign money, or any of the other convieniant causes they always blame. On the whole, it’s THEM.
Very good or re govt & codes. U r just touching the surface there on the level of incompetence, corruption (planners/industry/govt benefit-nobody else), harm.
In Toronto there is no hypothetical point when people start leaving. Simply because there are other points that will shoot much earlier than people willing to leave. One of them is inflation, another one is wage growth.
It is much easier to explain to employers that you can't survive on their wage rather than force large number of Torontonians to leave.
It is much easier to inflate all prices(including wages) rather than ask landlords to go deeper into negative cashflow.
Add here that average newcomer has ~20k per person and he doesn't care how much it costs to live in Toronto. His primary goal is to adapt in Canada, get his first job, become a Canadian...And Toronto is 30% of entire Canada's job market, such newcomer is in the right place and it doesnt matter if condo costs 2300/mo or 2600/mo.
In fact, I predict $3000/mo for 1bedroom before you even have a chance to vote on next federal elections. And no, no population decrease.
Not the least important thing is pentup demand from the millenials who live in mom's basement.
Some people try to move into GTA suburbs to make it more affordable (in most cases its not because GoTrain costs a lot).
But for every person that even tries to save some bucks, we have several aging millenials who are sick to leave in mom's basement. These guys will make some significant pressure on available listings in Toronto in next several years.
You need to get out more and meet new immigrants. I’ve met quite a few, some of whom are making it work from the sale of their homes back home. With that said they all complain about the prices here. They all have in the back of their head they might leave. Toronto has a breaking point and I don’t think it’s far off from where we are. Employers aren’t suppressing wages because the employees aren’t asking for raises. Employees are leaving jobs for higher wages their current employers can’t afford to give. I know a few people who left Toronto and won’t come back because they can’t afford it. We’re already losing high paying jobs. The compression will come it just has a delay of a year. You also underestimate the young, they’re more inclined to move to affordable places than stay where they grew up. You can see it in how outside cities have had their population expand and their real estate market increase.
@@sharinglungs3226 Bro, stop BSing me. I recently was renting out a room. Three coop students from Windsor had paid coop internship in Toronto and they were asking to live TOGETHER in a single tiny room. WTF? Even for a single person affording this room on minimum wage is easy, taking only 50% of her after tax income...Its not an affordability issue, it is greed and a culture to eat avocado toasts and wear beats headsets in TTC subway.
And there is no such thing as "Employer can't afford to pay more". If all prices around you are growing, as employer you have all the rights in the world to adjust your product pricing too upwards. Moreover, if you don't do that and struggle to survive, it only can mean that you are an idiot, not a businessman.
There is so many excuses people make just to keep respecting value of Canadian dollars. While the truth is, CAD is a waste, a garbage with deteriorationg value every single day. Deal with it, you can't change it by whining.
I heard about the NYC excodus too. I understand ex NYers are flooding to tax haven States like Florida(0% tax) where most are heading. I assume it’s the high income earners. The presidential candidates are all seemed to be on the tax the wealthy campaign. However I’m interested to see the demographics. Specially, if the wealthy class who’s gotten away with moderate tax for their entire career are finally fed up with tax increases. And these wealthy types are baby boomers ready for retirement. Note this is largest retirement group in history. So could explain that after 200 years, NYC is seeing a less than 1% population decrease. The income will continue to flow into their bank account no matter where they’re located so why not a tax haven state where it’s sunny 24/7. Canadians do not have the option of moving to an ultra low income tax province.
So even if my theory is way off I don’t think there’s much of a concern for Vancouver and Toronto. NYC has been a magnet for attracting the world to live and work for over 125 years. I cannot say that about our Canada’s two largest city. It’s only been since 1986 Expo and Whistler we were put on the world map. Eventually, some kinda population correction will happen as far as consistent immigration. Though less than 1% of the population is hardly a mass exodus. And we don’t have as many ultra rich execs with their unlimited stock buybacks as NYers. Demographic here consist of 9-5 workers and immigrants living off their family’s wealth. And even the wealth immigrates have stopped buying $10 million detached.
Steve Saretsky Correct on the provincial portion but the federal remains the same. I believe the US is 100% done on the State. So every percentage less is one percent saved in taxes. Correct me if I’m wrong.
And the US federal deduction for state taxes is capped at$10k.
NY too expensive making Toronto area the place to be.
''Toronto is going to be the mini NY''. (I said that at recess when I was in middle school in the mid 90s. Not even sure why the topic came up then)
With all that is going on globally, Canada is always looked at as the safe haven. There is no reason to leave once u get here for many immigrants. Just unfortunate they let anyone in now with no credentials and Toronto has become the wild-west with gangs.
The gta is always going to be expensive. And if you leave Toronto for larger commute time. You price yourself out from moving back into Toronto. Just the way she goes..when the 416 goes up. Ppl move out to the 905. From there it's retirement and peaceful living.
To summarize 2020 spring market is going to be fairly hot. 2021 even hotter putting the GTA back into peak prices of 2017. And those that sold will look back and say why did I do that. Or why didn't I buy then referring to 2018. I'm already saying why didn't I sell my place and buy that home I saw in 2018.
Just like in 08-2012. Ppl panicked and sold. And now have rented since. Many sold after the peak price in 2017 thinking it'd going to crash. But are still renting and will continue to in hopes of it crashing. But are just pricing themselves out once they figure all the money wasted to rent could of gone into their home.
If I wasn't making good money in Vancouver I would leave. I bet sane people in LA, NYC, San Fran, etc. are doing the same. I grew up in northern BC so i'm very willing to go back to a smaller city in BC or even a small town.
GearsDemon I’ve lived all over the country, in small towns and large metropolitan areas across Canada: BC, ON, NWT, QC, NB and AB. In my opinion, there’s no where else like Vancouver, thus, I am not too surprised that many view it as an exceptional place, ergo, everyone is shaped by their experiences and view the world under a unique lens. On a side note, I remember how amazing it was to grow up in Kelowna and how I would never want to live there now, amazing how things change too. ( I still visit though😜).