@@demun6065 i think he gets someone to edit if you do a quick wind reduction effect in e.g. audition, it can completely remove some sections of audio which If not QC'd then seems like its a call dropping out.
@@mistasomen I always get the impression that Peter is kind of a spontaneous guy and suddenly feels like talking about this and that with a nice background as a plus.
THIS is the sort of in depth analysis of a country's decision making that I always craved when I was in the military. Every country has its own unique logic, and it usually takes years of study to figure out even some simple pieces that are different from your own country.
@@inveenhuizen As someone who follows Turkey, they're one of the few nations where their domestic policy generally doesn't play a huge role in their foreign policy. For example when they were locking Sweden out of Nato, even all the opposition parties were on board. These types of strategic decisions generally don't shift with changes in governments or political winds in Turkey. It's an odd thing but there are plenty of reasons for it.
Sweden’s NATO membership is not yet certain. Turkey wants to see the changes made before giving its approval. One of the requirements is to replace the US-style freedom of speech with writing influenced by Sharia law. Normally, constitutional changes take 8-10 years.
@@arisnotheles Erdoğans power-base is resting on 2 far more Islamic parties. They have raised objections. Let’s se how this plays out and how much Sharia we needs imbed in the constitution. The question is in the long run… should we be influenced by Russians or by Islam.
Turkey isn't east nor west nor mid east. They are true "middle". They are the bubble in a level. They play everything against the middle , and do what's best to keep that balance, and not lean too east nor west, and they always seem to get what's best for them and stay out of trouble, and at least keep the peace in their region....because war is all around them. It's quite a balancing act. Just wish they were less authoritarian , and got along with the darn Kurds. While Iraq was a total mess, the Kurds in northern Iraq had everything running smooth in their little part, and they were good allies....and we turned on them, which was really - rotten.
I subscribed. I have watched a few, but this guy can Talk Moon & Mars, rocks & hike as if A person must Fly and pretend he is Hiker Emeritus at Standford. Certainly he can convince you he has, Iron meteorites oxidative status, etc., I just want for once, for this Genius Einstein, Galileo, Newton, of our time, to make any F! Sense on Politics. Not even Geopolitics! He is no Euclid, not Copernicus, either.
cheers from Turkey... The other reason that Peter did not mention for the "policy change" is that Erdogan goverment is desperate to find financial sources, as the country is in a big deficit with inflation rate soaring and Erdogan is taking his chances. it is all about money, nothing else nowadays.
I look for update every morning. Appreciate your concise and straightforward assessment. It is refreshing and empowering. Reporting from outside is a nice touch!
Other RUclipsrs with perfect sound "Really sorry about the bad sound, I've switched to the different mic this week" Peter Zeihan on a mountain "There is a growing demographic trend of RUclips audiences seeking meaningful analysis of geopolitical issues. Due to the constrained supply of good information on RUclips, there is a power inbalance which allows me to rape your ears with this terrible sound quality and there is nowhere else you can go."
Unbelievable! You said more in an 8 minute clear and concise video clip about the complex issue that is always Turkey, than the hours of reports from various news outlets, both online and offline, have since February 2022. Well done!
@@samorpeterenpretene9184 It's not the best script but it isn't a bad script either. The OP is right, more information was packed into this script than you'd get by watching the mainstream media talk about this issue in 10 years.
And it's not just Turkey that's reevaluated its geopolitical goals. To get to this point, the US, Canada, and EU will have broadly reassessed their geopolitical goals if they're willing to make amends with Turkey to the degree that F-16's are back on the table. To that end, Armenia's gotta be kicking themselves both for soliciting protection from the Russians and for not trying to sue for peace vis a vis the US and EU back when the US and EU may have been inclined to yank Armenia away from Russia and at the same time counter Turkish regional aims. It's too late for that now, that ship has sailed; the US, Canada, and EU have broadly decided that anyone siding with Russia at this point, two years and change into their war of genocide in Ukraine, for whatever reason, is persona non grata.
Armenia lost decades without trying to build peace with Azerbaijan and as a result Turkey. Both the Turks of Azerbaijan and Turkey are from the Oguz branch of the Turkish family. They have more in common then say to the Turkic people of Turkmenistan etc. If Armenia had solved its border problem with Azerbaijan then there would have been no need for a war in Karabakh 2 years ago. As long as Armenia cannot come to a peace deal with Azerbaijan the likelihood of a new war is very high.
@@tunatangor8835 Turkmenistan is also from the Oguz branch ^^ I personally wished they would all get along. The region has a common culture. If they worked together, they could become very successful. But everyone is an enemy of someone else and that hurts the economy, research, simply everything. I wished they would form something like a united nations of anatolia.
Armenia could never be "yanked" away from Russia. Remember what happened to Georgia in 2008, when they hoped to be "yanked" away? The US and EU pretend to care, but we all know they cannot have power in that area. Unfortunately, Armenia is stuck with Russia whether it wants to be or not. Maybe that could change in the future, but Armenia is stuck in the CSTO, and the CSTO does not provide any help. Look at what is going on in Lachin. Fake protestors stopping aid to Artsakh, and where is the CSTO.
"Hey everyone, Peter Zeihan here, coming to you from the crags of the Mt. Doom before I head to Iowa next week. Right now, I'd like to talk about Erdogan."
I am amazed at the info, and amused by the situation (one day young man you will talk to the world all alone from a mountain top..... ) I think you have an amazing life. Thanks for the info, hello from Texas
I'm amazed how he can talk so fluently and cogently without any notes or prompts. I looked at his glasses for reflections of notes and only he is reflected. Impressive!
The other factor is Turkey's economy is struggling. So all of sudden they could be before world financial banks to structure and extend their foreign loans plus domestically people aren't very happy with the present Turkish Administration.
I’ve climbed a number of 14ers in Colorado. I never had the strength to do much other take a few pictures let alone give a geopolitical lecture at the summit. You are the man Peter. You
There's a bigger balancing act here, the decline of the Soviet was a massive opening for Turkey, particularly Balkans, Caucasus and Central Asia, they don't want a resurgent Russia locking those down again, meanwhile in multiple conflicts they've been on the opposite side to Russia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Syria and Libya, throw in Russia being an extistential threat for most of the last 300 years, the Turks don't particularly want Russia to win in Ukraine. At the same time, the Turks don't want their regional rival Iran to get nukes but the Turkish State own Halk Bank was caught red handed sanctions busting in Iran. There's a sense of a willingness to play both sides, make some money and build bilateral relations, without undermining too much the effect of the sanctions that the rest of the world take care of the final result. Perhaps now there's.a sense of aligning their policy with their desired outcome aligns with the improving relations with Western allies, with economic benefits and maybe even some lucrative contracts for their large military-industrial complex supplying Ukraine on the US/European cheque book. Oh and I'm guessing it's no fun living down wind from the Zaporizha power plant,
Engaging, informative, concise and free (w ads). This is an example of the threat the internet poses to expensive liberal arts higher education as it is currently practiced today.
Год назад
Another interesting geostrategist is Stephen Kotkin. ruclips.net/video/M5z5HUS4tmM/видео.html
Peter- HUGE fan, but shocked that you didn’t mention Turkey economic crisis and meltdown of Lira to 26.5. Clearly they’re cozying up to rich countries and abandoning the poor for mamon as well.
Don't love the motive, but we'll take the help for containing Russia and getting that grain where it needs to go. I will never forgive Putin for starting this war.
@Pazitor, what exactly will turning to the EU do for them and their economy? They were well turned to the EU for more than 2 decades in a period where their economy was even worse than it is now. It won't help or make the situation worse.
I was in Armenia a month ago and saw very clearly the way things are unfolding there -- it is as Peter mentioned. Some travellers told me in the countryside they are even getting big guns ready dug into mounds. Armenia is also trying to befriend Iran but Iran has no reason to assist them, so with so many things stacked against the Armenians they might even just sign off the disputed region rather than lose a totally unwinnable battle and Armenian lives.
@@TheHaroGroupreal world Azerbaijan has oik and gas and the sorld wants to jeep them happy. Similar to Saudi getting away with stuff ither countries eould be slspped for. Most radical uslamic terrorism vones from countries where saudi had invested billions in preaching radical uslam. Yemen is straightforward punishing a country for not rolling over and begging.
@Campfireverthing. Iran has every reason you can possibly think of to assist Armenia. The problem isn't how willing they are, the problem is what can they actually do? As far as signing off, there is nothing for them to sign on or off of. That territory legally speaking is internationally recognized territory, the only way for Armenia to hold it is to physically occupy it. Which they no longer can. Who would have thought that invading your neighbor's internationally recognized territory and ethnically cleansing 800,000 civilians in the 1990s might lead to something bad in the future right?
Alright bud, this proves it - I'm hooked. I apparently will listen carefully, with little agitation, to a broken audio of your geopolitical cogitations. The backgrounds help. Thanks for your insights.
Excellent clarification on what I knew to be a regional power, but not very much about it's place in the world. What about the long standing inflation they've been having to deal with?
The problem Turkey has always had is that it's influential, not powerful. It's biggest weaknesses is in fuel and food. As a net importer it's at the mercy of the world and as it goes to shit with fuel prices soaring and food shipments becoming sporadic their treasury takes hard hits which their economy can't replace fast enough. This war after the pandemic has just killed them. It's tanked their economy so bad it's going to take a miracle or some very serious bribes from the powerful countries to recover. This is a lot of what's going on in the region is about. What Peter didn't mention but implied is that Turkey is waiting for the US and Europe to cross its palms to get their political wants met.
@@alexandermckay8594 The fact they consume more than they produce and like you said their lack of hydrocarbon resources are their weakness. I wouldn't put food on that list. They actually export more food than the import. They're food secure, if they shut down all food exports they produce more than enough calories to feed their population.
@@williamdavis9562 Yes and no. Not all calories are equal. While Turkey does export food they also import a lot, mainly wheat. Their climate is not ideal for wheat so they focus on stuff that does grow well and they can sell for a higher margin. Ukraine has put a crank into that as that's where they get most of their grain. Iffy supply means higher prices and wouldn't you know it, Turkey, per capita, is one of the largest consumers of bread. It's a major staple of their diet so rising prices are very bad.
@@alexandermckay8594 You'd have to look into the details of that. The wheat they import is not for domestic consumption. One of Turkey's industries is refining wheat into finished products like Spagetti for export. If all the wheat exports to Turkey stopped, it would have no effect on local food consumption. It would however destroy their wheat refining companies. Yes Turkey consumes a lot of bread but all of the wheat used for domestic consumption of bread is from domestic wheat. This specific topic is something I was curious about not too long ago and did a deep dive to see if Turkey was food insecure or not. Their biggest issue would be meat, animal husbandry in that nation isn't efficient at all and already high meat prices would skyrocket if they weren't able to import cows. Other than paying higher prices for meat, that nation is not food insecure. They grow more than enough to feed their population. They are nowhere near as food secure as America, Australia, Russia or Canada. But if world war broke out and all international shipping stopped they wouldn't starve to death like many nations.
I usually just listen through the day and not watch. So I was a bit confused when I didn’t catch every word and went to my screen thinking it might be an internal BT issue. To my surprise I saw an awe inspiring vista along with script. Thanks Peter for not only educating us but taking us along on your journeys. And now I have to watch.
This might seem off topic, but I read "Mongol Storm" recently which is a history of the near east including what became Turkey around 1200 CE. It was a really good book and talked constantly about the ever shifting political situations between all the factions in the region. Sounds exactly like what Zeihan is talking about in this video.
@@SignalCorps1 It was changed long ago by almost everyone. Changing it back doesn't represent the status quo. That's proven, along with proof that you know I'm right, by your need to explain it.
Turkey is gonna gain a lot once Russia loses most of its power, Turkey will be in league with azabaijan to take the whole of Nagorno-Karabakh ,then they will have access to azabaijan energy. Which will fuel the Turkish economy, get rid of dependence on oil from the Middle East and then Turkey will be on other big superpower.
Will gain but will not be superpower Superpower needs economic might and global influence. Turkey running economy into ground and little positive influence
@Constellation35. Superpower is a very heavy term my friend. Turkey's geography is nowhere near suited for them to be a "super power" To be a super power you need the ability to project power into every corner of the planet. The Turks can't, nor do they have any intention of doing so. They are well on their way to becoming an extremely powerful regional power though.
Turkey also shipped state of the art self propelled artillery to Ukraine just before the NATO meeting, these are the South Korean designed howitzers built in Turkey under license, so South Korea had to sign off on Turkey shipping them to Ukraine, that signals a change both from Turkey and South Korea.
The subtitles are a huge plus. Thank you for taking the time to write those down, the auto generated subtitles aren't great for geopolitical discussion.
which would likely indicate an offensive posture as they are already a NATO member and have guarantees against being attacked themselves... food for thought.
@Ryan-Fkrepublicnz Not really. Turks don't view NATO as a security guarantor from outside threats but rather as a guarantee that other NATO countries won't attack Türkiye. Also, in 1974, when Turkish Cypriots were facing a massacre, our NATO "allies" didn't let us use the weapons bought from them. Hence the defence industry.
@@letsRegulateSociopaths They themselves don't believe in those guarantees against being attacked themselves. Their domestic defense spending has more to do with them not trusting Nato nations to supply them with arms than it does with them planning an offensive with Nato. They've dealt with enough defense embargos to make them nervous about their defense needs.
I much enjoy your insight on international relations! Also your ever-changing beautiful background. But please get a dead cat to cover your mic when its windy. Looking forward to the next video. Take care!
One of the more accurate statements in my opinion. Canadians might have a hard time selling to the Turks again as they now make drone cameras locally and the Canadian firm that use to make it is out of business, never mind trust issues 😅
I don't know about that but I believe he is a former Eagle Scout that actually worked at Philmont Scout Ranch in the New Mexico Rockies as a young adult. It's my own Eagle Scout grandson favorite place as he has been twice. He is different as he would rather be in the outdoors instead of playing video games. He just started 1 of the small US Military Academys. No liberals arts degree for this guy.
Turkey is a very powerful country. I expect their "adjustments" will have huge repercussions in the region. Things are not looking so well for Russia. The Ukraine conflict keeps changing geopolitics for them.
@@PradedaCech Most of the power they project is military power, not economic. Their currency losing value didn't stop their military industrial complex one bit.
What's your take on the Truks or NaTO providing convoy escorts for the grain ships? Grain stocks are high right now but as shortages grow I could see it. Black Sea fleet can be wiped in one exchage.
hmm. nato ship escorts grain ship, and the russians intercept the convoy. the russians say “prepare to be boarded.” the nato ship says “russian warship, snake island yourself” they fire their weapons. we fire ours. the world ends 30 minutes later. and then six months later, the Posideon Status-6 robot torpedo surfaces in the ruins of san francisco harbour and blows up just so it can feel useful.
@ Russia has destroyed grain dockers and slios in Odessa last night crippling Ukraine grain export capabilities. There is nothing to mess about with navies you mentioned. A fine grain from lovely Oklahoma will be sold you at the new elevated price, making Uncle Sam farmers extremely happy. Isn't it what the US wanted - be the main supplier of natural gas and food for all its lapdog countries, sorry, allies. Rejoice, you have no choice.
@ZeihanonGeopolitics noise/wind cancelling does a pretty good job, but when wind is intense, it starts cutting out like there's a bad connection. Physical mic sock may help if not already in use.
The big question is, now that Russia withdrawn from the grain deal, how would Turkey (which made a lot of money thanks to this deal) are going to react. Are we going to finally see the starts of Istanbul closed to Russian ships?
How did Turkey make a lot of money? The grain ships were always going through the Turkish straits. But since the war, there are a lot less ships. Money didn't play a role here. I hate this passive-aggressive attitude towards Turkey.
@devalapar7878 What do you mean? As long as the deal continued, the good kept on passing through Turkey, and Turkey made money of it. If the deal stops, the shipments stops, and this means less money for Turkey.
@sktt1488 Turkey makes 4.48$ for every metric ton that passes through the staits. It makes a huge amount of money and is one of the major sources of income to Turkey. It is true that because of the convension, they can't close the staits (unless in an official war), nor can they make one-sided decisions without agreement from the other parties, but they are allowed to stop all ships from both sides of a war from moving through the staits. As Russia now basically just said that no Ukranian vehicle will be abke to leave, this means that Turkey can and should block both sides of the conflict.
In October, Turkey increased the cost of transit through the Black Sea Straits by 5 times. The increase in passage prices was explained by the increase in inflation globally and the decrease in the cost of gold. According to local media, Turkey’s annual income from the passage through the straits will increase from $40 million to $200 million.
Why is it that Azerbaijan is regarded as the villian when it is taking back its territory from the Armenian occupation but it's okay for the israelis to occupy Palestine, while the israelis are the aggressors? Hypocrisy and double standards.
Correct! It is because Armenians were genocided. Now, they can do whatever they want and nobody will say anything. For example Armenia supported Serbia during the genocide. That's so ironic.
@@devalapar7878 2 million died during ww2 and they call it genocide but when millions of africans, asians, indians and natives of what is now america where actually systematically murdered; the europeans are silent. More hypocrisy and lies. Today they are supporting the Palestinian genocide while crying wolf about other people doing the same.
Smart man - getting up to the snowfields in THIS heat, wonder what the ambient temperature is up there with all the sunlight reflection? Sorry never been to those locales myself so I've no frame of reference personally.
Generally speaking the mountain areas are about 20 degrees °F cooler than say Denver is. This week Denver is around 95°F so Peter was around 75°F. Snowfields don't affect the temp too much, unless you decide to have a snowball fight.
Please don't end up as a Missing 411 story. Stay safe on those hikes and please carry an emergency locator beacon (and bear spray and/or a pew pew). We can't lose you Peter. I don't always agree with you, but you are entertaining.
I hadn't considered Turkey adjusting to the flip in military power between Ukraine and Russia. Russia is disarming to the point that they'll struggle to maintain interior security and protect their borders. Ukraine will see a huge buildup.
It's good to see him finally getting to the top of this mountain he's been climbing the past 4 months.
He unlocked closed captioning
LOL at both of you. Gold.
@@PassportAdam Hopefully he'll unlock undistorted audio next...
Lmao
It is not a hard mountain to climb. Actually, you can walk up it.
Pretty sweet that this travel channel comes with such cool bonus content
😂
"International Fugitive"
Winning
The captions are a nice touch. I love your quick and remote content; it's only a little bit annoying when the audio is choppy. CC makes up for it.
Does anyone else find it odd that the audio seems to drop off, a lot?
I get that wind is involved, but to that degree?
Packing a windscreen or a little mic with a windscreen would be worth it. The audio by itself is not listenable to these ears…
Or just wait with recording your video for 5 min u til you're less wind exposed?
@@demun6065 i think he gets someone to edit if you do a quick wind reduction effect in e.g. audition, it can completely remove some sections of audio which If not QC'd then seems like its a call dropping out.
@@mistasomen I always get the impression that Peter is kind of a spontaneous guy and suddenly feels like talking about this and that with a nice background as a plus.
THIS is the sort of in depth analysis of a country's decision making that I always craved when I was in the military. Every country has its own unique logic, and it usually takes years of study to figure out even some simple pieces that are different from your own country.
You might like Peter Zeihan’s book Disunited Nations. I read that one and it was good. He has a more recent one too
You might like Alexander Mercouris’ page
How are able to type and coddle this guys cock and balls at the same time? It's genuinely impressive.
Zeihan totally skipped on the local, domestic politics though. Again. As a true Yank. Erdogan has recently cemented his position as leader again...
@@inveenhuizen As someone who follows Turkey, they're one of the few nations where their domestic policy generally doesn't play a huge role in their foreign policy.
For example when they were locking Sweden out of Nato, even all the opposition parties were on board. These types of strategic decisions generally don't shift with changes in governments or political winds in Turkey. It's an odd thing but there are plenty of reasons for it.
Geopolitcs in this part of the World are extremely complicated, thanks for the sidewalk chalk explanation that is detailed and concise.
Sweden’s NATO membership is not yet certain. Turkey wants to see the changes made before giving its approval. One of the requirements is to replace the US-style freedom of speech with writing influenced by Sharia law. Normally, constitutional changes take 8-10 years.
@@arisnotheles Erdoğans power-base is resting on 2 far more Islamic parties. They have raised objections. Let’s se how this plays out and how much Sharia we needs imbed in the constitution. The question is in the long run… should we be influenced by Russians or by Islam.
NATO IS A JOKE
Turkey isn't east nor west nor mid east. They are true "middle". They are the bubble in a level. They play everything against the middle , and do what's best to keep that balance, and not lean too east nor west, and they always seem to get what's best for them and stay out of trouble, and at least keep the peace in their region....because war is all around them. It's quite a balancing act. Just wish they were less authoritarian , and got along with the darn Kurds. While Iraq was a total mess, the Kurds in northern Iraq had everything running smooth in their little part, and they were good allies....and we turned on them, which was really - rotten.
I subscribed. I have watched a few, but this guy can Talk Moon & Mars, rocks & hike as if A person must Fly and pretend he is Hiker
Emeritus at Standford. Certainly he can convince you he has, Iron meteorites oxidative status, etc., I just want for once, for this Genius
Einstein, Galileo, Newton, of our time, to make any F! Sense on Politics. Not even Geopolitics! He is no Euclid, not Copernicus, either.
cheers from Turkey... The other reason that Peter did not mention for the "policy change" is that Erdogan goverment is desperate to find financial sources, as the country is in a big deficit with inflation rate soaring and Erdogan is taking his chances. it is all about money, nothing else nowadays.
agreed
And the massive deadly attack by the Earthquake.
Is probably a more local factor.
It's also about Religion. God has special people that he loves more than others, you know.
@@Leftatalbuquerquegood one 😂
I wish I was Peter's travel agent. I could retire 20 years early 😀
Travel agents are the most AI vulnerable jobs there are
Holy shit can you imagine? On an amazing trail hearing some of the best takes on the current geopolitical landscape!
@@george2113didn't get it
Or his official sunglasses provider....
Peter lives in Colorado. The trail he is on is a short drive from his home. However the trail is 5 h25min round trip.
Gotta get Peter a microphone windscreen.
Stick a sock on it
I look for update every morning. Appreciate your concise and straightforward assessment. It is refreshing and empowering. Reporting from outside is a nice touch!
Except the wing on this broadcast was difficult to listen to. Normally never an issue.
Wind!!
I really like your video content but I think the wind is affecting your audio quite a bit
Really needs a windscreen, or at least turn on the low cut filter on the camera.
……and not the first time - this great content is regularly affected by the wind on these Colorado walks
Finally someone said it the last half dozen videos have been borderline unwatchable
@@Justin-gv3lpok, i agree that it should be fixed, but "borderline unwatchable" is a bit much.
@@StatueofGuyThinking Yes, but sometimes I want to listen while working on my computer haha
Two of my favorite things on this channel. Outdoor adventuring and world regional current events.
Other RUclipsrs with perfect sound "Really sorry about the bad sound, I've switched to the different mic this week"
Peter Zeihan on a mountain "There is a growing demographic trend of RUclips audiences seeking meaningful analysis of geopolitical issues. Due to the constrained supply of good information on RUclips, there is a power inbalance which allows me to rape your ears with this terrible sound quality and there is nowhere else you can go."
so fucking based its beyond words
Lol
Just want to say thank you for these clips. I enjoy watching these in the morning as I make my coffee. Great primer for getting the mind awake.
Thank goodness for subtitles
Unbelievable! You said more in an 8 minute clear and concise video clip about the complex issue that is always Turkey, than the hours of reports from various news outlets, both online and offline, have since February 2022. Well done!
He reads a script
@@samorpeterenpretene9184 It's not the best script but it isn't a bad script either.
The OP is right, more information was packed into this script than you'd get by watching the mainstream media talk about this issue in 10 years.
You think he writes the script ??? Come on dude you can’t be this naive. Look up the Duran with Alex and Alexander
Just found you and am enjoying your content! Fabulous way to break down complicated issues.
And it's not just Turkey that's reevaluated its geopolitical goals. To get to this point, the US, Canada, and EU will have broadly reassessed their geopolitical goals if they're willing to make amends with Turkey to the degree that F-16's are back on the table. To that end, Armenia's gotta be kicking themselves both for soliciting protection from the Russians and for not trying to sue for peace vis a vis the US and EU back when the US and EU may have been inclined to yank Armenia away from Russia and at the same time counter Turkish regional aims. It's too late for that now, that ship has sailed; the US, Canada, and EU have broadly decided that anyone siding with Russia at this point, two years and change into their war of genocide in Ukraine, for whatever reason, is persona non grata.
Armenia lost decades without trying to build peace with Azerbaijan and as a result Turkey. Both the Turks of Azerbaijan and Turkey are from the Oguz branch of the Turkish family. They have more in common then say to the Turkic people of Turkmenistan etc. If Armenia had solved its border problem with Azerbaijan then there would have been no need for a war in Karabakh 2 years ago. As long as Armenia cannot come to a peace deal with Azerbaijan the likelihood of a new war is very high.
@@tunatangor8835 Turkmenistan is also from the Oguz branch ^^
I personally wished they would all get along. The region has a common culture. If they worked together, they could become very successful. But everyone is an enemy of someone else and that hurts the economy, research, simply everything.
I wished they would form something like a united nations of anatolia.
Azerbaijan sells the hydrocarbons to EU that they are no longer buying from russia. good luck to armenia getting anything from EU
@@devalapar7878 Turkmenistan is part of the eastern Oguz branch that is correct.
Armenia could never be "yanked" away from Russia. Remember what happened to Georgia in 2008, when they hoped to be "yanked" away? The US and EU pretend to care, but we all know they cannot have power in that area. Unfortunately, Armenia is stuck with Russia whether it wants to be or not. Maybe that could change in the future, but Armenia is stuck in the CSTO, and the CSTO does not provide any help. Look at what is going on in Lachin. Fake protestors stopping aid to Artsakh, and where is the CSTO.
I really like the contextual news and information! Thanks
Thank you for subtitles
Interesting explanation about Turkey. Thank you.
Clear and concise, stuff you’ll never see on biased newscasts. Thank you!
It'd be a lot clearer if the audio wasn't shit...
Peter trying to catch his breath while talking geopolitics on a damn mountain top is such a chad move lol
"Hey everyone, Peter Zeihan here, coming to you from the crags of the Mt. Doom before I head to Iowa next week. Right now, I'd like to talk about Erdogan."
I do like the subtitles!
I am amazed at the info, and amused by the situation (one day young man you will talk to the world all alone from a mountain top..... ) I think you have an amazing life. Thanks for the info, hello from Texas
I'm amazed how he can talk so fluently and cogently without any notes or prompts. I looked at his glasses for reflections of notes and only he is reflected. Impressive!
Well, he does go all over to do talks about the same thing. Probably had a bit of practice.
Or he reads a script
Loved the subtitles!! Thank you, Peter!
The other factor is Turkey's economy is struggling. So all of sudden they could be before world financial banks to structure and extend their foreign loans plus domestically people aren't very happy with the present Turkish Administration.
the administration gets the islamists support, which the West have pumped into Middle East through... what was that... "moderate" islam.
Par her şey değildir.Öyle olsaydı ERDOĞAN yeniden seçilmezdi.
Thank you for the subtitles 🙏
Audio is completely messed up
Not really, some of the audio is difficult, not all of it ...
We hope you found a way to cope.
@@wrAIth-AI why is it raining likes?!
I’ve climbed a number of 14ers in Colorado. I never had the strength to do much other take a few pictures let alone give a geopolitical lecture at the summit. You are the man Peter. You
This guy puts the Geo in geopolitics
Great location, fantastic audio!
Please do something about your audio quality. You are one of a handful of analysts that creates content that I clearly want to hear every word.
I'm glad that we're getting somewhere
Nations don't have 'friends', nations have interest. Thank you for another insightful video. I look forward to them every day.
Nice sound quality
There's a bigger balancing act here, the decline of the Soviet was a massive opening for Turkey, particularly Balkans, Caucasus and Central Asia, they don't want a resurgent Russia locking those down again, meanwhile in multiple conflicts they've been on the opposite side to Russia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Syria and Libya, throw in Russia being an extistential threat for most of the last 300 years, the Turks don't particularly want Russia to win in Ukraine. At the same time, the Turks don't want their regional rival Iran to get nukes but the Turkish State own Halk Bank was caught red handed sanctions busting in Iran. There's a sense of a willingness to play both sides, make some money and build bilateral relations, without undermining too much the effect of the sanctions that the rest of the world take care of the final result. Perhaps now there's.a sense of aligning their policy with their desired outcome aligns with the improving relations with Western allies, with economic benefits and maybe even some lucrative contracts for their large military-industrial complex supplying Ukraine on the US/European cheque book. Oh and I'm guessing it's no fun living down wind from the Zaporizha power plant,
Thanks for the subtitles, really helps given the choppy audio due to the wind
Phenomenal analysis as usual
I love the quality and focused conciseness, in the way you package your messages. Thank you for sharing.
Peter is the man... that is all
What an amazing view! Thank you.
I'll take these quality vistas even for the hurricane audio they come with.
Damn, concise and on the spot!
Engaging, informative, concise and free (w ads). This is an example of the threat the internet poses to expensive liberal arts higher education as it is currently practiced today.
Another interesting geostrategist is Stephen Kotkin. ruclips.net/video/M5z5HUS4tmM/видео.html
Very good analysis
Peter- HUGE fan, but shocked that you didn’t mention Turkey economic crisis and meltdown of Lira to 26.5. Clearly they’re cozying up to rich countries and abandoning the poor for mamon as well.
Don't love the motive, but we'll take the help for containing Russia and getting that grain where it needs to go.
I will never forgive Putin for starting this war.
@E4439Qv5 LOL not sure he cares 😅
@@briandupre1494 He doesn't. And that's the problem.
Very good summary of the situation from the turkish perspective.
Can someone buy this man a proper mic
Mic's fine, he needs a windscreen.
Last few episodes it started, before it was way better, even in windy places. It's the mic, hope he gets a new one soon
Totally agree.
Congratulations on getting over 500k subs! What an accomplishment 👏
As others have said, "It's the economy, ". Turkey must turn now to the EU to save it from itself. Again.
Turn-key economics
@Pazitor, what exactly will turning to the EU do for them and their economy?
They were well turned to the EU for more than 2 decades in a period where their economy was even worse than it is now. It won't help or make the situation worse.
Keep going!
Very rational. Fair enough. Might not always like it. But understandable from the Turkish position.
A very rational analysis that validates what I see as well. Respect from Türkiye.
I was in Armenia a month ago and saw very clearly the way things are unfolding there -- it is as Peter mentioned. Some travellers told me in the countryside they are even getting big guns ready dug into mounds. Armenia is also trying to befriend Iran but Iran has no reason to assist them, so with so many things stacked against the Armenians they might even just sign off the disputed region rather than lose a totally unwinnable battle and Armenian lives.
Yes. Armenia is in deep trouble. The genocidal campaigns of the late 1800s and into 1915 are dangerously close to being repeated.
@@TheHaroGroupreal world
Azerbaijan has oik and gas and the sorld wants to jeep them happy.
Similar to Saudi getting away with stuff ither countries eould be slspped for.
Most radical uslamic terrorism vones from countries where saudi had invested billions in preaching radical uslam.
Yemen is straightforward punishing a country for not rolling over and begging.
@Campfireverthing.
Iran has every reason you can possibly think of to assist Armenia. The problem isn't how willing they are, the problem is what can they actually do?
As far as signing off, there is nothing for them to sign on or off of. That territory legally speaking is internationally recognized territory, the only way for Armenia to hold it is to physically occupy it. Which they no longer can.
Who would have thought that invading your neighbor's internationally recognized territory and ethnically cleansing 800,000 civilians in the 1990s might lead to something bad in the future right?
Alright bud, this proves it - I'm hooked. I apparently will listen carefully, with little agitation, to a broken audio of your geopolitical cogitations.
The backgrounds help.
Thanks for your insights.
A review on Hungary policies and stances please :)
Hey Peter, could you try to fix the audio on your videos? It’s been pretty bad recently.
Excellent clarification on what I knew to be a regional power, but not very much about it's place in the world. What about the long standing inflation they've been having to deal with?
The problem Turkey has always had is that it's influential, not powerful. It's biggest weaknesses is in fuel and food. As a net importer it's at the mercy of the world and as it goes to shit with fuel prices soaring and food shipments becoming sporadic their treasury takes hard hits which their economy can't replace fast enough. This war after the pandemic has just killed them. It's tanked their economy so bad it's going to take a miracle or some very serious bribes from the powerful countries to recover. This is a lot of what's going on in the region is about. What Peter didn't mention but implied is that Turkey is waiting for the US and Europe to cross its palms to get their political wants met.
A new organization of Atlantic democratic states to replace NATO is overdue!
@@alexandermckay8594 The fact they consume more than they produce and like you said their lack of hydrocarbon resources are their weakness.
I wouldn't put food on that list. They actually export more food than the import. They're food secure, if they shut down all food exports they produce more than enough calories to feed their population.
@@williamdavis9562 Yes and no. Not all calories are equal. While Turkey does export food they also import a lot, mainly wheat. Their climate is not ideal for wheat so they focus on stuff that does grow well and they can sell for a higher margin. Ukraine has put a crank into that as that's where they get most of their grain. Iffy supply means higher prices and wouldn't you know it, Turkey, per capita, is one of the largest consumers of bread. It's a major staple of their diet so rising prices are very bad.
@@alexandermckay8594 You'd have to look into the details of that.
The wheat they import is not for domestic consumption. One of Turkey's industries is refining wheat into finished products like Spagetti for export.
If all the wheat exports to Turkey stopped, it would have no effect on local food consumption. It would however destroy their wheat refining companies.
Yes Turkey consumes a lot of bread but all of the wheat used for domestic consumption of bread is from domestic wheat.
This specific topic is something I was curious about not too long ago and did a deep dive to see if Turkey was food insecure or not.
Their biggest issue would be meat, animal husbandry in that nation isn't efficient at all and already high meat prices would skyrocket if they weren't able to import cows.
Other than paying higher prices for meat, that nation is not food insecure. They grow more than enough to feed their population.
They are nowhere near as food secure as America, Australia, Russia or Canada. But if world war broke out and all international shipping stopped they wouldn't starve to death like many nations.
I usually just listen through the day and not watch. So I was a bit confused when I didn’t catch every word and went to my screen thinking it might be an internal BT issue. To my surprise I saw an awe inspiring vista along with script. Thanks Peter for not only educating us but taking us along on your journeys. And now I have to watch.
Leave it to Peter to talk about major subjects on top of a windy mountain.
Thank you ❤
This might seem off topic, but I read "Mongol Storm" recently which is a history of the near east including what became Turkey around 1200 CE. It was a really good book and talked constantly about the ever shifting political situations between all the factions in the region. Sounds exactly like what Zeihan is talking about in this video.
AD as in Anno Domini, not CE. That is how time has been defined for millennia. No need to change it.
@@SignalCorps1 It was changed long ago by almost everyone. Changing it back doesn't represent the status quo. That's proven, along with proof that you know I'm right, by your need to explain it.
Thanks Peter!
Turkey is gonna gain a lot once Russia loses most of its power, Turkey will be in league with azabaijan to take the whole of Nagorno-Karabakh ,then they will have access to azabaijan energy. Which will fuel the Turkish economy, get rid of dependence on oil from the Middle East and then Turkey will be on other big superpower.
Will gain but will not be superpower
Superpower needs economic might and global influence.
Turkey running economy into ground and little positive influence
@Constellation35.
Superpower is a very heavy term my friend. Turkey's geography is nowhere near suited for them to be a "super power"
To be a super power you need the ability to project power into every corner of the planet. The Turks can't, nor do they have any intention of doing so.
They are well on their way to becoming an extremely powerful regional power though.
Turkey also shipped state of the art self propelled artillery to Ukraine just before the NATO meeting, these are the South Korean designed howitzers built in Turkey under license, so South Korea had to sign off on Turkey shipping them to Ukraine, that signals a change both from Turkey and South Korea.
Pretty sure Peter just wanders the earth and suddenly decides to film.
The subtitles are a huge plus. Thank you for taking the time to write those down, the auto generated subtitles aren't great for geopolitical discussion.
Also to keep in mind , Turkey has financed a massive domestic defence effort
which would likely indicate an offensive posture as they are already a NATO member and have guarantees against being attacked themselves... food for thought.
@Ryan-Fkrepublicnz Not really. Turks don't view NATO as a security guarantor from outside threats but rather as a guarantee that other NATO countries won't attack Türkiye. Also, in 1974, when Turkish Cypriots were facing a massacre, our NATO "allies" didn't let us use the weapons bought from them. Hence the defence industry.
@@letsRegulateSociopaths They themselves don't believe in those guarantees against being attacked themselves.
Their domestic defense spending has more to do with them not trusting Nato nations to supply them with arms than it does with them planning an offensive with Nato.
They've dealt with enough defense embargos to make them nervous about their defense needs.
That was certainly informative. Thanks for the report.
By next year, “Coming to you aboard the International Space Station.”
I much enjoy your insight on international relations! Also your ever-changing beautiful background. But please get a dead cat to cover your mic when its windy. Looking forward to the next video. Take care!
One of the more accurate statements in my opinion. Canadians might have a hard time selling to the Turks again as they now make drone cameras locally and the Canadian firm that use to make it is out of business, never mind trust issues 😅
Aselsan şirketimiz üretime başlayalı çok oldu.Kameralarımızı kendimiz yapıyoruz zaten:=)
Always interesting and informative. Did you play risk as a kid? 😊
I don't know about that but I believe he is a former Eagle Scout that actually worked at Philmont Scout Ranch in the New Mexico Rockies as a young adult.
It's my own Eagle Scout grandson favorite place as he has been twice. He is different as he would rather be in the outdoors instead of playing video games. He just started 1 of the small US Military Academys. No liberals arts degree for this guy.
@gerryconstant4914 I appreciate your response. It's actually nice to get a friendly post. You made my day.
Cheers.
May I sponsor you a wind muffler attachment thingie? 😂
Good analysis
Turkey is a very powerful country. I expect their "adjustments" will have huge repercussions in the region. Things are not looking so well for Russia. The Ukraine conflict keeps changing geopolitics for them.
With a currency that lost 90% of its value in the last 10-15 years? Meh..
@@PradedaCech Most of the power they project is military power, not economic.
Their currency losing value didn't stop their military industrial complex one bit.
Nice hike. Looks like you filmed it on the outcropping right before you make the right turn up to the final pitch.
Fix your mic dude. Unwatchable.
I do like your "work environment" beautiful vistas and info too.
What's your take on the Truks or NaTO providing convoy escorts for the grain ships? Grain stocks are high right now but as shortages grow I could see it. Black Sea fleet can be wiped in one exchage.
hmm. nato ship escorts grain ship, and the russians intercept the convoy. the russians say “prepare to be boarded.” the nato ship says “russian warship, snake island yourself”
they fire their weapons.
we fire ours.
the world ends 30 minutes later.
and then six months later, the Posideon Status-6 robot torpedo surfaces in the ruins of san francisco harbour and blows up just so it can feel useful.
That's has nuclear consequences that neither you nor I will survive
@@КАБы_да_КАБы Turkey has no nukes.
Better navies from the destination of the grain vessels (Egypt, Turkey, China, Bangladesh, Algeria, Saudi Arabia...) Too many for Russia to mess with.
@ Russia has destroyed grain dockers and slios in Odessa last night crippling Ukraine grain export capabilities. There is nothing to mess about with navies you mentioned. A fine grain from lovely Oklahoma will be sold you at the new elevated price, making Uncle Sam farmers extremely happy. Isn't it what the US wanted - be the main supplier of natural gas and food for all its lapdog countries, sorry, allies. Rejoice, you have no choice.
@ZeihanonGeopolitics noise/wind cancelling does a pretty good job, but when wind is intense, it starts cutting out like there's a bad connection. Physical mic sock may help if not already in use.
The big question is, now that Russia withdrawn from the grain deal, how would Turkey (which made a lot of money thanks to this deal) are going to react. Are we going to finally see the starts of Istanbul closed to Russian ships?
How did Turkey make a lot of money? The grain ships were always going through the Turkish straits. But since the war, there are a lot less ships. Money didn't play a role here.
I hate this passive-aggressive attitude towards Turkey.
@devalapar7878
What do you mean? As long as the deal continued, the good kept on passing through Turkey, and Turkey made money of it. If the deal stops, the shipments stops, and this means less money for Turkey.
@@shanytopper2422 unlike sues Canal boshporus doesn't really bring money because of montreux convention.
@sktt1488 Turkey makes 4.48$ for every metric ton that passes through the staits. It makes a huge amount of money and is one of the major sources of income to Turkey. It is true that because of the convension, they can't close the staits (unless in an official war), nor can they make one-sided decisions without agreement from the other parties, but they are allowed to stop all ships from both sides of a war from moving through the staits. As Russia now basically just said that no Ukranian vehicle will be abke to leave, this means that Turkey can and should block both sides of the conflict.
In October, Turkey increased the cost of transit through the Black Sea Straits by 5 times.
The increase in passage prices was explained by the increase in inflation globally and the decrease in the cost of gold. According to local media, Turkey’s annual income from the passage through the straits will increase from $40 million to $200 million.
Congratulations on 500k
Another great analysis Peter!
Interesting points, thanks for sharing.
Looks like Grain’s back on the menu boys!!!
Nah, seemingly not after the new Crimea bridge attack.
@@chrise842 I'm starving! We ain't had nothing but maggoty grain for three stinking days!
@@swaggitypigfig8413 what?
Just found this channel good talk and awesome scenery
Why is it that Azerbaijan is regarded as the villian when it is taking back its territory from the Armenian occupation but it's okay for the israelis to occupy Palestine, while the israelis are the aggressors? Hypocrisy and double standards.
Correct! It is because Armenians were genocided. Now, they can do whatever they want and nobody will say anything.
For example Armenia supported Serbia during the genocide. That's so ironic.
@@devalapar7878 2 million died during ww2 and they call it genocide but when millions of africans, asians, indians and natives of what is now america where actually systematically murdered; the europeans are silent. More hypocrisy and lies. Today they are supporting the Palestinian genocide while crying wolf about other people doing the same.
Consider covering the microphone portion of your phone with a cloth or sock in breezy locations ✌️
Either these videos are shot out of order or Peter has a secret twin. Peter's next book: "The geopolitical significance of the world's hiking trails."
Global Politrecs and Hiking Prices, by Peter Zeihan typing from a mountaintop somewhere
Very informative.
The audio was MISERABLE!
Smart man - getting up to the snowfields in THIS heat, wonder what the ambient temperature is up there with all the sunlight reflection? Sorry never been to those locales myself so I've no frame of reference personally.
Generally speaking the mountain areas are about 20 degrees °F cooler than say Denver is.
This week Denver is around 95°F so Peter was around 75°F.
Snowfields don't affect the temp too much, unless you decide to have a snowball fight.
It's always nice to see Putin fans getting an egg on their face.
Thank you for all your very intelligent analysis. Pls feature your future analysis of the Philippines
Please don't end up as a Missing 411 story. Stay safe on those hikes and please carry an emergency locator beacon (and bear spray and/or a pew pew). We can't lose you Peter. I don't always agree with you, but you are entertaining.
It's the two legged predator that's the problem
@@george2113Bigfoot?
@@kevinkarsnia109 if you are concerned, why not
Excellent analysis.
I hadn't considered Turkey adjusting to the flip in military power between Ukraine and Russia. Russia is disarming to the point that they'll struggle to maintain interior security and protect their borders. Ukraine will see a huge buildup.