Nice summary -love when you say forecasts tend to be always wrong! So true , we can only try our best based on what we know and our risk tolerance which is personal.
Would be interested to know if you are still going all-in on VHVG given the great rotation. It’s difficult to build a low-fee portfolio with a small-cap/value/quality/global tilt. VHVG seems to be a relatively low-fee way to get some global exposure but is it still too large-cap and US-dominated, given the concerning 10-year projections you cited here?
Oh, good, I stopped buying total US market several years ago and have been buying only ex-US and value since then. Maybe ten years from now conditions will be good to buy large cap growth, but not now.
“Narratives are fickle. Whereas fundamentals are very reliable, in the sense that markets snap back to fundamentals when some kind of shock comes along”.... Well said.
Thank you for your insight. A post on US value and small caps funds available to UK investors and/or considerations when picking them would be very informative. A couple have been suggested in the comments.
Hi @georgepolitis3384 I've got an EOS camera that does 4K and I occasionally use it when I make videos for companies. But due to the atrocious broadband in Holmer Green (no FTTP!!!) this takes hours to upload for our video editor then download to re-upload to RUclips. So blame UK infrastructure for my reluctance to use 4K. Thanks, Ramin.
Well, that's only true for the last decade or so, when interest rates were ultra low and growth stocks rallied as a consequence. Will the trend continue now as interest rates are back to normal or are we going to revert back to the previous trend of some factors like size and value outperforming? I guess well see.
Thanks, interesting, I have been thinking sp500 was way overpriced ever since I started investing 4 years ago. But still it keeps on going up in general, all though it deffo has stuttered and seems to be hitting a wall ATM.
Excellent video Ramin, thanks - particularly good as you express a fairly strong opinion (ref tech and small caps) and explain your rationale. Pretty compelling, many thanks.
If you are invested in a broad based index then there is no need to concern yourself with any sort of stock analysis. If you have a low risk appetite go for the FTSE global all cap. If like me you like to live on the edge stay with VUSA or its equivalent. Simple! Get a hobby, pay your taxes……and have a good life.
Thanks a lot for such an analysis. Could someone please help me understand the graph that compares mega cap-8 capitalization vs revenue vs earnings (10:04 minute)? As I know, earnings = revenue - expenses so by having just 11% of revenue, mega cap-8 managed to get 20% of earnings which means that their expenses are significantly lower than other companies' expenses, did I get it correctly?
Another great vid ramin. I will talk to my adviser about adding a value small caps fund as a tilt. As a retired independant CFP financial adviser, i believe your rational is sound. Iimportantly you also covered your strategy risks well. Higher returns = more risk. Kiwi
Hi @selwynparker5793 thanks for that and I'm glad you found the rationale sound. I'm sure you did your own research too - I never intend for people to copy what I do. Thanks, Ramin.
Even though markets going sideways,but they are still up big,the broader market,let’s say S&P is up 20% year to date,.so where the gains is going to come from here,meaning markets will go sideways from here till the end of the year.
Hi @pathologicaldoubt the Mag 7 are overvalued - I don't think that's controversial. But they may stay overvalued for a long time! Usually you don't know you're in a bubble until it pops. Thanks, Ramin.
Why can't most companies no matter a small , mid, large cap eventually benefit from AI? If the market is normalizing to a Federal funds rate of around 3% like we had prior to the GFC, isn't a reasonable hypothesis that being invested in a total market index fund (US & International) the best play In the long run? Why complicate your portfolio more? Simplicity can be the savior of ego driven human behavior that frames bad decisions. I really appreciate your content and perspective on markets Ramin!
Hi Ramin, Great video as usual sir. Given that we’ve just had a prolonged bout of quite high inflation and the understanding is that stock values match inflation plus or minus a little, does that mean that the markets have this amount already baked in, or will they continue to increase in value to match the new post COVID compounded inflation levels?
The sideways movement is either distribution or re-accumulation. I'm leaning towards re-accumulation. There will always be corrections though. Buy the dips, hold long term. If there is an AI bubble, sell your house and buy the dip! ;)
What do we think of iShares MSCI World Mid-Cap Equal Weight ETF (IWSZ) as an 'all in one' contrarian bet against tech-growth (i.e., tilted to value and small caps)? The bulk of my pension is, of course, in a world market-cap weighted equity ETF only because I don't want to make big bets on myself :D
Brilliant analysis, yet again. I do have a world/GlobalETF, which shouldn’t take too much of a hit, but I have been pondering on the benefits of including a small cap etf as a hedge.
The idea of investing a significant sum of money may be both thrilling and intimidating. There is potential for considerable wealth increase with the correct strategy. How can one take advantage of compound interest and potentially grow your retirement savings to about $1M over time?
Ps. Do you know if there is an eft that is something like Random 500 stocks from the broader index? Grab, 500 [profitable] companies randomly selected from eg all US equities..
Hi @user-fv1576 I've done videos about my UK Small Cap Value Quality Momentum portfolio - a couple in fact! This was more about the US as you say as that's a much larger market. Thanks, Ramin.
Put 3.5% of my portfolio into SPDR US financials ETF last week on the assumption the bull market will continue with some credit expansion and earnings growth for US banks
@@jimbojimbo6873 I used AJ Bell and already have about 35% in what they define as cyclicals mostly insurance Etfs this dials it up to 40% so a little overweight in that area
I doubt Labour will mess with ISAs and SIPPs much. Maybe they'll take away the higher rate tax relief for SIPPs, but its unlikely they'll change much more. So you're still better of maxing out those before putting any money in what's basically renewing lottery tickets. And even when you maxed out you ISA and SIPP, it's still better to invest in some gilts, you'd get better return on some of those than the advertised return for premium bonds. Ramin and Michael just made a podcast about this over at Many Happy Returns.
Nice summary -love when you say forecasts tend to be always wrong! So true , we can only try our best based on what we know and our risk tolerance which is personal.
Loved the arm demonstrations of up and down. Nailed it for me personally.
Hi @chrisbarlow5968 we spare no expense when it comes to animation. Thanks, Ramin.
Would be interested to know if you are still going all-in on VHVG given the great rotation. It’s difficult to build a low-fee portfolio with a small-cap/value/quality/global tilt. VHVG seems to be a relatively low-fee way to get some global exposure but is it still too large-cap and US-dominated, given the concerning 10-year projections you cited here?
Oh, good, I stopped buying total US market several years ago and have been buying only ex-US and value since then. Maybe ten years from now conditions will be good to buy large cap growth, but not now.
“Narratives are fickle. Whereas fundamentals are very reliable, in the sense that markets snap back to fundamentals when some kind of shock comes along”.... Well said.
Hi @plastelina_ytb thanks! Ramin
Yes go long XLF, XLRE, XLU (Fabers trend following model) Strong up trends here. Broader markets, go long GLD too.
Thank you for your insight. A post on US value and small caps funds available to UK investors and/or considerations when picking them would be very informative. A couple have been suggested in the comments.
Great information, guess il keep buying global index 60% US
Breakfast with Ramin ...every Saturday here in BC Canada !~
I'm pretty sure P Diddy can get you excited about Johnson & Johnson. 😂
Hi @macrolosses I'm afraid I had to google that (I'm old!) but Michael from Many Happy Returns told me about his back story too. Thanks, Ramin.
Part of it is just a seasonal defensive rotation.
what ETFs would be interesting to UK investors wanting to tilt towards US value stocks?
IUVF for large cap US value and USSC for small cap US value
Hi Ramin, great video! Perhaps a bit off topic, but can you make 2k or even 4k video recordings? The video could look better in a 4k monitor.
Hi @georgepolitis3384 I've got an EOS camera that does 4K and I occasionally use it when I make videos for companies. But due to the atrocious broadband in Holmer Green (no FTTP!!!) this takes hours to upload for our video editor then download to re-upload to RUclips. So blame UK infrastructure for my reluctance to use 4K. Thanks, Ramin.
Speaking of rotation, in 10 month gold went from 1800 USD/Oz to 2600 USD/Oz ...
My pension fund mightly loved it.
In times like these I'm glad to have my small-cap value tilt.
In all other times, not so much 😅
Well, that's only true for the last decade or so, when interest rates were ultra low and growth stocks rallied as a consequence. Will the trend continue now as interest rates are back to normal or are we going to revert back to the previous trend of some factors like size and value outperforming? I guess well see.
@@Ratgibbon I'm still tilting to small and value, so 🤞
@antonisdee Got you, so am I, so 🤞 indeed.
Thanks, interesting, I have been thinking sp500 was way overpriced ever since I started investing 4 years ago.
But still it keeps on going up in general, all though it deffo has stuttered and seems to be hitting a wall ATM.
Excellent video Ramin, thanks - particularly good as you express a fairly strong opinion (ref tech and small caps) and explain your rationale. Pretty compelling, many thanks.
please you enjoyed it @mikelloyd3265
Brilliant, thoughtful and original content as always, thanks Ramin.
Much appreciated @MrHotrod79
If you are invested in a broad based index then there is no need to concern yourself with any sort of stock analysis. If you have a low risk appetite go for the FTSE global all cap. If like me you like to live on the edge stay with VUSA or its equivalent. Simple!
Get a hobby, pay your taxes……and have a good life.
Hi @loutol2952 I do that with 90% of my money but I play around with my fun portfolio with the remaining 10%. Thanks, Ramin.
I just go Global to make life easy
I go global but currently I have a tilt towards global value
Thanks a lot for such an analysis. Could someone please help me understand the graph that compares mega cap-8 capitalization vs revenue vs earnings (10:04 minute)? As I know, earnings = revenue - expenses so by having just 11% of revenue, mega cap-8 managed to get 20% of earnings which means that their expenses are significantly lower than other companies' expenses, did I get it correctly?
Another great vid ramin.
I will talk to my adviser about adding a value small caps fund as a tilt.
As a retired independant CFP financial adviser, i believe your rational is sound. Iimportantly you also covered your strategy risks well.
Higher returns = more risk.
Kiwi
Hi @selwynparker5793 thanks for that and I'm glad you found the rationale sound. I'm sure you did your own research too - I never intend for people to copy what I do. Thanks, Ramin.
Good data driven analysis. Thanks.
Coincidentally, all US stocks I have are either min vol or max value etfs.
Thanks for sharing @thetjt
I think forward active strategies may work better in the us and internationaly regarding current valuation
Even though markets going sideways,but they are still up big,the broader market,let’s say S&P is up 20% year to date,.so where the gains is going to come from here,meaning markets will go sideways from here till the end of the year.
Ramin essentially described the mag 7 as a bubble
Hi @pathologicaldoubt the Mag 7 are overvalued - I don't think that's controversial. But they may stay overvalued for a long time! Usually you don't know you're in a bubble until it pops. Thanks, Ramin.
Mag 7 aren’t going anywhere and daily business depends on tech companies
Why can't most companies no matter a small , mid, large cap eventually benefit from AI? If the market is normalizing to a Federal funds rate of around 3% like we had prior to the GFC, isn't a reasonable hypothesis that being invested in a total market index fund (US & International) the best play In the long run? Why complicate your portfolio more? Simplicity can be the savior of ego driven human behavior that frames bad decisions. I really appreciate your content and perspective on markets Ramin!
What's your portfolio name on T212 Ramin? Would be interesting to see your pie.
RaminNakisa
Ramin also replicated (and improved) Vanguard's life strategy funds as Trading 212 pies at some point, trying to find them again.
Yes @@NightElff88. I remember them.
Doesn't exist @@ricw4275
Cool vid, thanks mate
Glad you enjoyed it @Scott-ll9rb
Hi Ramin, Great video as usual sir. Given that we’ve just had a prolonged bout of quite high inflation and the understanding is that stock values match inflation plus or minus a little, does that mean that the markets have this amount already baked in, or will they continue to increase in value to match the new post COVID compounded inflation levels?
The sideways movement is either distribution or re-accumulation. I'm leaning towards re-accumulation. There will always be corrections though. Buy the dips, hold long term. If there is an AI bubble, sell your house and buy the dip! ;)
Mag7 stocks are the new Bitcoin. People invest to hedge dollar devaluation so valuations have taken a backseat.
What do we think of iShares MSCI World Mid-Cap Equal Weight ETF (IWSZ) as an 'all in one' contrarian bet against tech-growth (i.e., tilted to value and small caps)? The bulk of my pension is, of course, in a world market-cap weighted equity ETF only because I don't want to make big bets on myself :D
UK barred from IVW right?
market situation is definitely scary right now.. thinkin about selling everything before the crash comes..
Brilliant analysis, yet again. I do have a world/GlobalETF, which shouldn’t take too much of a hit, but I have been pondering on the benefits of including a small cap etf as a hedge.
Not sure if small caps hedge US recession... good when coming off a recession not so much into it. I hedge with bonds.
The idea of investing a significant sum of money may be both thrilling and intimidating. There is potential for considerable wealth increase with the correct strategy. How can one take advantage of compound interest and potentially grow your retirement savings to about $1M over time?
Are you buying into the “this time is different” mantra? How can we conclude already that we are likely to get a soft landing?
6.2 % annual return pretty good?
Against real inflation ( not the cooked numbers) aren’t you a whole lot poorer?
Great analysis. Thanks.
Very welcome @JohnDoe-wu4tt
Ps. Do you know if there is an eft that is something like Random 500 stocks from the broader index?
Grab, 500 [profitable] companies randomly selected from eg all US equities..
Thank you.
You're welcome @grahamlucas1648
Been eyeing US small cap value for some time. Might dip my toe in the water now I've sold my doggiest dog fund at a 4 figure loss.
What about small cap uk. Ah, half a sentence at the end 😂
99.9% talk about US stocks
Hi @user-fv1576 I've done videos about my UK Small Cap Value Quality Momentum portfolio - a couple in fact! This was more about the US as you say as that's a much larger market. Thanks, Ramin.
Put 3.5% of my portfolio into SPDR US financials ETF last week on the assumption the bull market will continue with some credit expansion and earnings growth for US banks
Why only 3.5%
@@jimbojimbo6873 I used AJ Bell and already have about 35% in what they define as cyclicals mostly insurance Etfs this dials it up to 40% so a little overweight in that area
There's no question tech seems like it can do no wrong. Smart money will tire of the excess valuations and look elsewhere. It's inevitable.
With a Labour government looking to hike taxes might be better off gambling with premium bond prizes than trading 212.
I doubt Labour will mess with ISAs and SIPPs much. Maybe they'll take away the higher rate tax relief for SIPPs, but its unlikely they'll change much more. So you're still better of maxing out those before putting any money in what's basically renewing lottery tickets. And even when you maxed out you ISA and SIPP, it's still better to invest in some gilts, you'd get better return on some of those than the advertised return for premium bonds. Ramin and Michael just made a podcast about this over at Many Happy Returns.
QQQ is basically at all time highs. The narrative of the video is just complete bollocks
Thank You.
You're welcome @DPTrainor1