The 2024 Recession: 100% Likelihood of USA Recession
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- Опубликовано: 8 июн 2024
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In today's video, we're diving deep into a recent Deutsche Bank study that says a recession is coming to the USA 100%, based on four recession indicators.
Predicting a recession is no walk in the park, given the many variables at play-think geopolitics, like the Ukraine conflict or global pandemics.
But according to Deutsche Bank, they're sounding the alarm bells, claiming the likelihood of a U.S. recession is at a whopping 100%.
They're warning of an imminent boom-and-bust cycle that we can't avoid.
To back up their claims, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reed, the head of global economics and thematic research, analyzed 34 recessions dating back to 1854.
They've pinpointed four key macroeconomic triggers that have historically caused recessions.
Now, let's dig into these triggers, and you'll see the hit ratios as we go.
First up, we have rapidly rising interest rates. Over the past 18 months, we've witnessed a significant hike in interest rates, going from near-zero levels in March 2022 to a staggering 5.5% by September 2023. Historically, when short-term interest rates have risen by 2.5% over 24 months, there's been a recession within three years-about 69% of the time. The chart resembles an elevator ride, and this steep climb is concerning.
Next on the list is rising inflation, which currently stands at 3.7% year-over-year as of August 2023, up from 3.2% the previous month. Deutsche Bank finds that a 3% inflation rise over two years triggers a recession in roughly 77% of cases.
The third indicator is the infamous inverted yield curve. It's when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates for loans of the same risk profile. This anomaly has a strong correlation with recessions, with 74% of cases signaling a downturn. We've been in an inverted yield curve since mid-2022, as seen in the Fred chart, and it's something to keep a close eye on.
Last but not least, soaring oil prices have jumped around 30% since June, reaching over $94 a barrel. However, this indicator is less likely to predict a recession in the U.S., with a 45.9% correlation when oil prices spike 25% over a year.
Now, let's not forget the geopolitical factors at play, such as the Israel-Hamas situation and tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which can add unpredictability to the mix.
In conclusion, while these recession indicators are flashing red, it's essential to approach this information with a level head.
Low unemployment is currently propping things up, but any changes there could trigger a recession. We're in uncertain territory, and it's crucial to stay informed and make well-informed decisions tailored to your unique circumstances.
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The cause of this recession is most likely external. The United States is losing influence as a government reserve currency for the first time in decades. Less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past, and there are no more economies to utilize to control inflation. They all provide evidence in favor of the theory that a new multilateral global order is being created.
This recession is most likely the result of an external factor. For the first time in decades, the United States is losing its clout as a federal reserve currency. They don't have any more economies to use to control inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past. They all lend support to the idea that a new multilateral world order is in the works.
Professionals are currently crushing it because they have both the necessary approach to profit in this market as well as access to insider market knowledge that is not made public. With the assistance of an investment advisor, I was able to diversify my $401k portfolio across multiple markets, earning over $180k in net profit from high dividend yielding stocks, ETFs, and bonds in just a few short months.
Since the outbreak of 2020, which significantly affected the market, I've been consulting an investment coach before making any investment decisions because their entire philosophy is built around employing a high-profit orientated plan while simultaneously trading long and short, as well as decreasing risk exposure as a hedge against inevitable downtrends. When coupled with their access to odd data and analysis, underperformance is virtually impossible.
Impressive can you share more info?
There are many financial coaches who excel in their profession, but for the time being, I employ "Stacie Lynn Winson because I adore her methods. You can make research and find out more.
Thanks, I searched for her name on the internet and her name popup right away. I composed an email and arranged a phone conversation. I'm optimistic that she will reply, and my goal is to conclude 2023 on a financially successful note.
The only thing you can do is make sure you're ready and plan accordingly because recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle. I began my career during a recession (2009). Aerial acrobatics on cruise ships was my first job out of college. I've developed my own business, am a vice president at a large corporation, own three rental homes, invest in stocks and businesses, and have seen a growth in my net worth of two million dollars over the past four years.
Let's face it, increasing stock and index fund purchases during downturns and bear markets is unnerving. Which makes it very difficult for most people, like me, to do. It's challenging to incur the risk of investing the one million dollars that I have in an S&S.
You are quite correct; they can have a significant impact on a person's portfolio. My first financial advisor for trusts was Camille Alicia Garcia. Her work ethic is acceptable according to the US Investment Act of 1940, and she is verifiable. Her open-book approach lets me completely own and control my portfolio while maintaining very low costs in comparison to the returns on my investment.
*@shirleygarland4766* I've wanted to start investing for a few months, but haven't had the courage to do so because the market has been down for the majority of this year. Please provide additional information about her offerings and how I may feel confident in her skills.
She covers a wide range of subjects, including insurance, retirement planning, investing, and coming up with methods to reduce investment risk volatility. You may look up her full name on the internet. She is popular. Therefore, locating her official website shouldn't be too difficult.
Thanks, I just Googled her and was quite impressed with her credentials; I got in touch with her because I need all the help I can get. I just set up a phone call.
Building steady income is quite difficult for newbies...
John Desmond Heppolette has been a significant step in my financial life journey, providing valuable knowledge actionable advice and motivational content. His supportive community has boosted my confidence,
I just discovered his exceptional resume when I searched his name online, I consider it a blessing that I discovered this comment area
I hear what you are saying, and agree with the indicators, but I feel like I’ve been hearing this for the past 18 months.
That’s because you’ve been listening to the wrong people. All year the sources I trust have been saying late 2023 to late 2024 for over a year.
I think we been in a recession this whole year, but then the government chanced the definition.
Just means it's going to be deeper and longer.
In my video from February about the inverted yield curve, I talk about how long it usually takes to go into a recession after the yield curve inverts.
@@search4wisdom lol, k
This is financial advice and I never give financial advice: DONT LEAVE DURING THE BEAR. If you don’t want to invest…learn. If you don’t want to learn…build. If you don’t want to build observe. DO SOMETHING…other than leave. There is so much opportunity here. Take advantage!
Just because there are opportunities in the market doesn’t mean you should go in blindly. To understand the potential factors that contribute to your financial growth, I'll advise you to seek the help of a professional.
Thank you, just searched her up and left her a message.
Recessions are part of the economic cycle, all you can do is make sure you're prepared and plan accordingly. I graduated into a recession (2009). My 1st job after college was aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today I'm a VP at a global company, own 3 rental properties, invest in stocks and biz, built my own business, and have my net worth increase by $500k in the last 4 years.
You need a Financial Advisor my friend so you don't get ripped off in the market. They provide personalized advice to individuals based on their risk appetite, placing them among the best of the best. There are bad ones, but some with good track records can be very good.
@@TomD226 Can you leave in details about your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one.
@lowcostfresh2266 Actually, I'm not sure if I'm allowed to mention this, but I'd recommend looking up Laurel Dell Sroufe because she was a big deal in 2020. She manages my portfolio and serves as both my coach and my manager.
@@TomD226 Thank you for this tip , I must say, Laurel appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her online page, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
The 1% of rich Americans think of how to invest their money to increase their wealth during the recession. While the 99% of struggling hard-luck Americans think of how to survive without food and daily necessities in the recession and the coming hyperinflation
I only save money for emergencies, like having an emergency fund. I'm aware that it loses value over time and doesn't make me anything, but it's there as a financial insurance, to cover my ass if ever I get into some trouble from life.
money is a liability, not an asset. You have to exchange it for assets that represent real VALUE. Real estate - properties for rent. Stocks (dividends). Bonds (interest), funds, REITs (interest), intellectual property, The aid of an institutional or basic financial advisor's cannot be over expressed, have been in touch with 'Martha Cornell Kerns, over the years before taking any financial decisions and it's been working perfect for me because i don't have to send her my money to manage but taking her advise. Her honest approach gives me complete ownership and control of my positions, and her rates are incredibly affordable
You are absolutely right ,firstly I believe money in the bank is not money because it is bond to inflation and losses values overtime
You have to be well disciplined to achieve success and save before you spend
Lastly success does not happen overnight it takes time,dedication and self discipline
@@Edgardo477 great info if i don't have to send her my money. I feel like this next bullrun will be the millennials last hope for financial freedom. because this next bullrun will literally determine if I work until I'm 70 or not. I hope I can build a big enough portfolio for it to matter.
@@AnielaGorska just invest a bit each month. You're right, the best time to buy in the market is when there's fear. A huge part of my growth has also come during this bear market. This year alone, I have scaled from 112k to over 354k speaking with her before picking my stocks.
Ah man, the recession of 1854. I remember it like it was yesterday. Could only afford salted horse meat and oppossum mince pies, and had five patches in my one pair of pantaloons. Had to sell three of my nine children to the West Virginia coal mines to keep our one-room shack under the railroad tracks. Bad year for top hats, too. Hopefully we don't ever have to go through those times again.
😂
That was a funny read
My almost $600,000 stock portfolio continues to lose value, and I have no idea how to protect it from the market's volatility. With the recession about to hit. i don't really know how to save my porfolio from dwindling
Recession is looming, and the Fed is talking about interest rate hikes which is really spooking investors. Geopolitical tensions are playing a role too, The ongoing Middle East conflicts are making everyone nervous. you should consult with an FA to help you with your portfolio
Speaking with a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January, , and in just a few months, I was able to earn over $950K in net profit from high dividend yielding stocks. you should try it if your portfolio keeps declining
Pls who is this coach that guides you? I’m in dire need of one, my stock portfolio is declining rapidly
*Sharon Louise Count* is my advisor; she is regarded as an expert in the field and has a wealth of information regarding portfolio diversification. You ought to look her up.
I looked up her full name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her; hopefully, she gets back to me.
Oh, a new recession? I still have my 2008 survival kit!
The fin-Market have underperformed the U.S. economy as fear of inflation hammers the prices of stock;s and bonds. My portfoliio of $250k is down to $192k any recommendation;s to scale up my return;s during this crash will be highly appreciated.
Buying a stock is easy, but buying the right stock without a time-tested strategy is incredibly hard. hence I will suggest you get yourself a financial-Advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist
Having an lnvestment advser is the best way to go about the market right now, especially for near-retirees, I've been in touch with a coach for a year now mostly because I lack the depth knowledge and mental fortitude to deal with these recurring market conditions, I nettd over $320K in profits so far, Its clear there's more to the market that we avg joes don't know that Investment advisors know.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
My advisor is .LEILA SIMOES PINTO. You can easily look her up, she has years of financial market experience.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
I made this video in August of 2019. A few months later, we had a recession. Trust the WhiteBoard. ruclips.net/video/jvymyRS0Vug/видео.htmlsi=Pv12jZ4JixyGQIw7
Awesome content as always Marko! Thanks for taking the time to put these videos together
Glad you like them!
Thanks Marko for sharing information that is so easy to understand and straight to the point! Keep it coming👍
This channel is very informative. Solid information every time.
I appreciate that!
Marko, appreciate the insights as always!
One thing I noticed was missed between this video and the recent housing/mortgages one is that you used to have a segment/section going over “what does this mean for you/what you can do to prepare.”
We understand what the indicators are saying thanks to your explanations but for those of us on the younger side it be good to hammer home what can we do to prepare.
Along with once unemployment does goes up, what are the domino effects we could expect?
Having been too young to understand the impacts of 08/09 I have no clue what the day to day looks like when a recession hits.
A few things I can recall from prior videos to prepare is DCA, having 3 to 6 month emergency fund, avoid debt, maybe some cash on hand to buy stocks if things get too low and keeping your skills sharp just in case of a layoff. Not much else I can think of.
Appreciate the content as always, if others want to chime in please do so!
Thanks for the great videos!
Glad you like them!
Thank you!
You're welcome!
People dont realize how significant and fast these rate hikes were/are made and the effects of them take time to play out
But I thought it was supposed to be in 2023?!?! Have I not gotten wrecked enough?!?! 😂
I literally lol'ed at this comment haha
This is just pregame. Get ready 😂
You tired already?! This is simply the warm-up!!😂😂
Bank bailout earlier this year otherwise yes it would have happened
We are closer to a top than a bottom. Prepare. I have been cash heavy since 2023. Always invest but when markets are hitting high I prepare
Marko I love the content man and love how you say "Baaank" instead of bank too haha. Keep up the good content brotha!
Whoever came up with that promo code for university deserves a raise 😂😂. Love the video Marko!! 😊
😅🤝
Your channel is absolutely underrated.
I absolutely agree. Please share it.
I got value out of this!
great assessment as usual
thank you Marko
god bless you!!!!!!!!!!!
What's the high level hedge strategy?
For the next decade?! Holy sh**
Thanks Marko. Great information. I'm in Europe but as you know what happens in the US has a ripple effect here .. fresh haircut too btw.
What does this mean regarding the house market?
Dude 2 bangers this week?
Hail 🌧️ yeah
2 bangers 2 days in a row!
Hey super cool sick haircut big bro!!!
😎👈
U looking sharp dude.
Keep up the fine content markooooo!!!
😸👍
thank you sir!
@@WhiteBoardFinance no problemo sir marko!!, just stating the facts like you know!!!
😸👍👈
Nicely done Marco. I have been reading recession for such a long time. Crying wolf.
100%. Trying to just save and prepare. Want to scoop up some property when it all hits the fan.
Don’t worry all the big rental/investment firms will be in line of front of you to do just that
Are you saving in a high yield account?
@@Pickle312 Yeah, that's the battle.
We have been in a recession
They excluded energy shelter grocery and car from the cpi
We are well over 10
And we been had negative gdp in two qt
Love the vids as always! Hey you used to give really good advice about buying cars. Any chance you do a new video about it in this market? Everyone says low inventory and charging crazy markups above msrp and to me it smells fishy. Ive never paid above MSRP in my life and now they want 5-10K above which is crazy to me.
Hey Marko!
Is it wise to invest in faang stocks long term?
Just keep DCA every month and all will work out.
This.
Just be careful not to over-expose yourself. The chance of losing one's job is inversely correlated with the stock market. People get wiped out because they buy on the way down and are then forced to sell at the bottom when they lose their jobs and have to cover their expenses.
You gotta bring back the pink shirt, man. Pink's your best color
real men wear pink
LoL at the coupon code! 🤣
haha it's hard out here!
Everyone knows not to time the market, but with these markers, I'm always wondering if I should stop DCA'ing into S&P and just wait for the crash to resume it. Then again, if I did that earlier this year, I would've missed the 13.63% increase YTD. Then again, that increase will likely be washed away whenever this recession hits. Reduce the DCA amount and raise it when the recession hits? I suppose that's the most reasonable approach...
Great to know that a lot of people are expecting this to happen... But what should the average American do to prepare for a recession? Should saving or investing or debt payment strategies change?
Bidenonics is destroying America.
The 1% of rich people think of how to invest their money to increase their wealth during the recession. While 99% of struggling hard-luck people think of how to survive without food and daily necessities in the recession and the coming hyperinflation.
@@RichardGalanisIt is always good to have a financial plan. I work with LUCY ROSE CARTER,a professional planner and a fixed-income strategist in NY. the fixed-income portion of your portfolio won't simply serve as a buffer to the volatility of the equity portion of your portfolio but will provide legitimate income.
My portfolio is made up of dividend etf’s, dividend stocks, growth stocks and individual stocks, it allows a bit more freedom in specific areas with help of an advisor LUCY ROSE CARTER who I’ve been in touch with over the years before buying any stocks and it’s been working perfectly for me.
You need to tell the fact that recessions are common in an economy.. Market volatility is just like waves in ocean.. Ups and downs are its characteristics..
We are in recession because all trends are progressing into recession or are already there.
I love how you say Deutsche bank
Everyone loves to talk about "buying the dip." Just be careful not to over-expose yourself. The chance of losing one's job is inversely correlated with the stock market. People get wiped out because they buy on the way down and are then forced to sell at the bottom when they lose their jobs and have to cover their expenses.
What do you think if unemployment rises, can people with 2.5%-3% mortgages locked in who can’t pay them rent out of their homes? Maybe not if the area is getting crushed economically?
What does it say that CNBC is predicting no recession and you're preciting a near certainty of one and I believe you more than them.
Non-emotional, data driven analysis. Recession could happen. What investments do you recommend to mitigate?
Companies are still hiring for IT positions
“The likelihood of a recession is 100%” Without specifying a time period this statement is meaningless. Of course there will be another recession. When? In 6 months? Next year? 10 years from now? It’s like a doctor telling you that he’s 100% certain that your life will end. It kind of matters when that will happen.
Agreed they didn’t give a timeframe from what I researched
I would assume it’s within the next 5 years.
Number 3 wins!
According to The Simpson there will be war next year.
For the algorithm
My man!
Lmao at the thumbnail for this one.
I like it!
@@WhiteBoardFinance as do I!
I always thought it was Douche Bank! - Maybe both?
Buy gold or some other recourse that keeps it's value.
Marco, you need to get the comment spammers removed. The same ones are on cnbc videos. Someone makes vague comments about market uncertainty and mentions a portfolio .Then 300 likes and 20 comments pointing to a named dubious advisor. Is there any way to prevent those bots from filling the comment section?
This guys always makes a recession video every year hoping there is one 😄🤣 But he fails every time.
This guy likes to say "Deutsche Bank", and he says it like a native German
Holy crap, there’s a shit ton of bots in the comments and bots liking the bot comments
Hard part is back
2 videos back to back and gaping mouth!? 🎉
Define recession please.
I spent the last 25 years in tech and all of our major layoffs preceded broader layoffs. Tech tends to lead other industries so I have every reason to believe there will be broader layoffs in 2024.
Agreed
You just love saying 'Deutsche Bank' don't you!
hey Marko! how could someone who is say 53 years old benefit from your whiteboard finance membership?
We have members of all ages. I would ask you the question would you benefit from a physical personal trainer / accountability group at the age of 53?
Tbh you can get all the info free online
I thought I was doing well, but inflation is effecting me. I've been maxing my retirement accounts since 2016, and I hope the economy doesn't prevent me from continuing to do so. It is starting to be more difficult to do so as I have noticed my living expenses budget creeping upwards due to inflation. If there is any more I'll have to back off investing to increase my cash flow to living expenses.
Would love to know what they think is gonna happen in Canada? LOL Doomed......
All noise if you believe in the long term.
Appreciate your channel
However, that is an extremely ignorant statement:
Nothing in life is 100% probable outside of living/dying
It’s a statement made by Deutsche Bank
We have the biggest housing bubble in american history, great time to buy!!!!!!!!!!!!!😂
videos
For the poorer people of the USA and even Canada, it has been a recession for a while now. Only out of touch people like this predicting a future one. RUclips is more and more filled with these rich out of touch content creators.
Bidenonics is destroying America.
69% chance of a recession because of rapidly rising interest rates? Not nice
You say "this is not a fear mongering channel" but I see tones of videos about housing market collapse, death of the US dollar, banking crisis etc... If this was not fear mongering than your video would include productive strategies for preparing against the disaster scenarios not just highlight the disaster.
Watch the videos and then comment.
I’m a Mortgage Loan Originator up here in Ohio… anyone got a dollar? I’m hungry.
It like they knew COVID was coming
100 percent is alot lol 😢
CRASH landing!
If they manage it right, the economy can have a soft landing and a recession so mild that it’ll be barely felt.
What is happening now ceo know they took loans and bought bunds and stock and now have to pay it back
And they have now realized they can’t sooo more over when they lower the rate it takes about 11 months to catch up and that out us in nov 24 just in time for the presidential race 😂
Recession recession sounds like russia russia…all for click baits while the market is at all time highs and acc to youtubers it should be destroyed. Btw I love your advice and channel just been hearing that word for too long. ❤
I disagree. All the NBER/FRED indicators do not show any real chance of an incoming recession.
😂
It all depends on unemployment IMO
😂😂😂 this guy have been praying for an recession for the last 2 yrs since democrats took over. This guy started out good on finance and turned into a political .Thank God they still got a few people out there who just stick to finance
There was nothing political about this video or 99.9% of my videos.
Are you losing weight?
Here you go again; please stay in your lane.
I am the lane. ruclips.net/video/jvymyRS0Vug/видео.htmlsi=9qGelN81ZEA2nH-P
How many times have you said ther would be a recession over the lat 2 years... I mean it happens at least every 10 years, so you will get it right eventually.. haha If you could predict it you would be a billionaire, and trust me you wouldn't be making youtube videos if you were a billionaire.
It's estimated that Americans will need more than $1 million to retire comfortably, but I found most of us aren't bullish about meeting that goal. I've been sitting on over $750K equity from a home sale and I want to invest on the stock market, how do I achieve this?
I've never heard any of Miss Leah's clients complain of loss. I think she's just too perfect
I met Miss Leah for the first time at a conference in Ontario, I invested $35k I made about $220k in one month.
Having monitoring my portfolio performance, Leah Thompson has made me a jaw dropping $120k from just the past two quarters alone. I have learned why these experienced traders make huge returns from the seemingly unknown market
I'm definitely going for a long term trade this
season….
We have been in a recession. Where the f have you been?
Dwarfs in charge.