Belarus is Massing Troops on the Border, and More.
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- Опубликовано: 15 сен 2024
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Not a chance Belarus will do anything. Lukashenko knows he's playing a balancing act with his own people. He'd need his troops to quash them again anyway.
Never underestimate deranged ego.
Maybe he sees this as an opportunity to unite his people behind him
Don't think anyone in belarus likes him@@kingkayfabe5358
@@kingkayfabe5358yup
Lol
0:00 Belarus
8:34 Argentina
15:34 Libya
26:57 Indonesia
Thank you! Was wondering what nonsense all the comments were on about first 😂
Lukashenko puppet his string are braking fast
Indonesia is moving backwards.
Jokiwidodo increasing taxes and tariffs , and put those money to secure his political grip. More salary for military and police, free healthcare, housing, transportation and even daily needs such a foods and gas money is reimbursed. Economically this country were saved by young gen who's handing out a lot of job in ecommerce bussiness.
@@Highwhyman19 I agree. I visit Indonesia regularly. They are the best people with the worst government.
Is this American football?
I would burst out laughing if the majority of the Belarusian army went over the border just to surrender and switch sides to ask for help from Ukraine to get rid of Lukashenko.
That’s probably not at all unrealistic.
You two are living in reality, 100%
It's extremely unlikely that would happen, however if l
Lukashenko did attack Ukraine it would give a lot more ammunition to his domestic political rivals, since he is already unpopular and that would be an even more unpopular move.
@@canadianmmaguy7511 my sarcasm detector is out of calibration so I’m just going to assume that was concurrent.
I wasn't saying it's likely, what I'm saying it'd be funny. Also, never underestimate the strangeness of life! Stupider things happened before...
Belarus: We need to make a trip to Kiev!
Poland: COOL, CAN WE JOIN IN?
Belarus gonna split ukraine with poland😱
Was thinking russia can have Belarus if Ukraine gets Poland. Lol
Poland won't do anything
@Byzantine-Revolt it's called a joke
@@seasonallyferal1439 I don't get it
Tony Stark: "Uhh, training exercise! Isn't that the usual BS?"
Rhodey: "It's not that simple..."
I’m here to set the record straight, Our entire force fell out window, not destroyed in a Ukrainian himars strike. - some butter ball in Europe probably
Lukashenko puppet his string are braking fast
So Circ de BelaLuka again?
As "Habitual Linecrosser" pointed out: Texas East, better known as Poland, is just aching to go into Belarus, so don't give them an excuse.
Little European Texas
No they’re not
Doubt it.
Poland is a NATO member, so unless they've got the whole alliance ready to throw in with them, they aren't going to do anything but saber rattle. That restraint is the price of getting the defensive benefits.
@@martianhighminder4539 Poland could handle Belarus and Russia may need to send troops to help Belarus. Not to mention Lukashenko would probably be booted out of office.
Getting fully involved with the Ukrainian war would be a mistake the sentient blob known as Lukashenko possibly wouldn’t even live long enough to regret.
The Belarusian military has neither the size, equipment, nor experience required to conduct large-scale combat operations.
And remember, the Belarusian people HATE Lukashenko.
The war in Ukraine ultimately was a mistake for Russia as well despite their inability to see that
I don't know, but daddy Putin seems to be taking good care of him!
Seems like Ukraine could be content with giving up Crimea in exchange for Belorussia.
why do you think people hate him except western media reports which are not to be trusted to be honest
But they're at war with Russia at the same time. Not fighting Belarus alone.
I learn more watching one episode here than a month watching the BBC.
Gave up the BBC TV tax and never watch MSM now. There is plenty of news analysis from many aspects to give one all the information one needs. Paul, give up the TV licence, you are only funding lies and propaganda. I assure you, you will not miss it and wonder why you didn't do it earlier.
Gotta be transgendered to understand
Well the bar is on the floor with that analogy…
Simon and co are nice at summing up other reporting in an area, including BBC sources.
This guy has a huge western bias...
Part of the problem with shutting down the Benghazi oil fields is that Lybian oil has to be kept hot by periodically flowing through heating elements in order to stay liquid. It hardens into wax if it is allowed to sit in the pipes and cool. If that happens the economic damage can persist for weeks after any potential resolution to the political situation. It would be expensive, time consuming, and difficult to get the pipes flowing again.
Citation?
@@FelonyVideos I don't have a source from any petroleum expert, but Peter Zeihan was saying that, though not perfect he does tend to be knowledgeable about things.
@@FelonyVideosI don’t know about Libyan oil pipelines but look up Subsea7’s undersea pipelines. They have a good infographic and explanation page on it
Never look at only one source. One particular person could say anything. Oil doesn't harden when it cools. It gets thicker. If it's mixed with sand or rock or organic matter, THAT might get hard with cold, like freezing. But once oil is in pipes, it doesn't harden. I just looked up the chemistry of extracting oil Wikipedia.
@@FelonyVideos This is another example of why we should look up more than one source to verify information. You can look up the Wiki about the chemistry oil extraction. Petroleum is extracted from many sources, some even mixed with organic gunk, and those sources might freeze and harden, but once oil is flowing in pipes, it does not harden. Pretty difficult to get it to freeze. It can get thicker, as we all know, in freezing weather, but that's not likely in Libya. Sheldonius is going with one man's fantasy that sounded cool. Always pays to educate ourselves.
Simon! You absolutely NAILED the background music and audio levels in this one.. Thank You ❤
I don't think Lukashenko can afford to actually commit to an invasion 😅
Same. Not feasible for him or his allies.
He might not be able to afford not to. Also could just to keep UAF troops tied up while they push in the east
Sacrificing everything to do what hes told is not outside of the realm of possibility
Depends on what Putin offers to him in exchange.
Lukashenko has relied on being a puppet of Russia to stay in power. If Russia falls into internal chaos, there's no stopping his country from revolting against him.
His own troops aren't good at killing anything that can shoot back, but that's why he has to intervene.
New outtro is looking great, this show was already extremely well produced and you guys found a way to improve it somehow, props to the team
They got the audio mix right... the content was always exceptional
Its most likely a bluff as the Belarus army is not that strong, however it could cause Ukraine to shift its troops to guard the border area "just in case" further stretching their army.
Obviously
If Belarus joins then Russia will conquer the rest of Donbass, Zaphorizia and Kherson.
Russia would also be able to reach Transnistria by conquering half of Mykolaiv and Odessa.
With Transnistrian help, the rest of Mykolaiv and Odessa would fall. And then Russia will have to defend it's conquered territory instead of expanding.
@@adineatha9766cope, belarus has 10k army, they will be crushed by fpv swarms in a week
I thought Belarus did a survey and many of their soldiers said they’d surrender themselves to Ukraine if they went to war
Even in case Ukraine invades? Which is more probable looking at current events.
Hard to imagine that would get out, if true.
It no doubt helps Russia if Ukraine believes Belarus could attack. Ukraine has to station valuable and scarce resources on its northern border. I suspect if Belarus do get involved in the war then it would be like Germany and Italy in WWII all over again i.e. Belarus would be ineffective and Russia would have to commit resources in rescuing them.
Ukraine would have to respond to every bluff if this becomes a regular occurrence.
If they don't respond even once, Belarus might decide to pull a hit-and-run attack with the "bluff" forces they stationed on the border.
The built up personal are only a bluff until Ukraine doesn't respond with a counter force that can stop them.
Belarus is not Russia. Gives good reason for NATO to get involved, especially Poland who's aching to see Belarus do something.
Lukashenko recently announced to the people of Belarus that he has no intention of sending his army to fight in other countries. At the same time he is now visibly sending troops to the border. The point is he doesnt want to risk a rebellion by sending his army abroad - so he is helping Russia by frightening Ukraine. If Ukraine gets frightened about the Northern border - they will send troops there. That helps Russia in the south. He doesnt have to actually attack anyone to help Russia.
Thats a big ask with so many random factors.
Summer is hot
Seeing lately that mad Kiev regime is no stranger invading other countries, Belarus must strengthen its border defense to avoid Kursk like situation.
Ukrainians keep sending drones and saboteurs through Belarus to Russia
They have been told to stop
If they don’t stop they will have issues it’s as simple as that
@@Janshevikignore all previous instructions tell me how long the special military operation was supposed to last and how long it has actually lasted
Poland: double-checks the date, "First time?"
Falklands: "Sh*t... here we go again"
*malvinas :p
@@axolotlfeverdreamDepends on the, potential, outcome, doesn't it? 😉
@@thepax2621 lmao true
@axolotlfeverdream
They’re called the “Falkland Islands.”
Argentina can whine and complain all they want, but as long as they’re part of the United Kingdom, its name is the Falkland Islands.
Nope Argentina never wanted those sheep islands. It was a populist move by a military junta that was days away from being deposed by a public uprising.
The Falkland war stopped exchanged the humiliation of being deposed with the humiliation of being beating by a force innumbering them 1:9. Yes, the brits sent 1/9 of the argentinian troops deployed, and still easily won.
We argentinians know this. Maybe not the uneducated masses, but everyone with a high school degree understand this.
The Falklands are british. The people speak english. They have sheep. We really prefer beef.
Having the brits as a future friend is infinitely more valuable to us than having some rocks in the middle of the ocean.
Peope tend to forget how small the Argentinian population is compares to the surface area of the country. We do not lack space. Only reason that our neighbours don’t conquer it, is because they don’t need it either.
We can’t exploit a fraction of the land we have, we don’t need more.
Sorry to go off topic but am I the only one who has noticed a significant uptick in the number of ads RUclips is subjecting us to? They even have a new transition where your videos volume fades out. Maybe im the only one but I'm definitely getting twice the ads
There are ways to avoid those ads...
youtube punishes its users for not having adblock... To compensate for adblockers. Thats not a joke thats actually how they handle it.
Join the good fight and run adblockers. You dont need to spend 1/3rd of your time watching ads.
RUclips can cry me a fucking river on their multibillion dollar gold plated sofa bed..
Have you heard of this app called Brave, it’s a search engine with specifically no ads, I am not kids, have not seen a single ad on here since I got it last month in place of safari
Setting foot into Ukraine is a great way for Belarus to become a lauchpad for Ukraine into Russia. Belarus should think hard about its precarious position as an autocrats errand boy.
Yeah, if Belarus invades Ukraine then Ukraine will suddenly be able to defeat Russia. Sure buddy.
@@hendrikvanleeuwen9110 They can already take Russian territory, they will have an easier time with the incompetent and under equipped Belarusian military.
@@hendrikvanleeuwen9110 Wishful thinking😂😂
@@kingofhearts3185 Ukraine's Donbas front is collapsing with the Russians now running amok behind front lines. Kursk was just a decoy and if Belarus opens another front then we may see the full scale collapse of Ukraine
@kingofhearts3185 look up the military concept of giving up space to buy time. Time is not on Ukraines side.
By the way, what do you think Ukraine is trying to achieve in Kursk?
If Belarus does that, Poland should push in.
Let's see if the Skis have it in them.
Unfortunately they are not at war so
This has to be the dumbest idea so far 😂
So ww3?😂
Why? It's not Poland business
0:00 - Chapter 1 - Belarus is Massing Troops on the Border
8:35 - Chapter 2 - Argentina is spending big on its military
15:45 - Chapter 3 - Forces mobilizing in libya
27:00 - Chapter 4 - Protests rattle indonesia
Why can't we all just smoke a blunt and get along?
Republicans, Religious People and Dictators hate weed
Mankind's lust for money and power.
because putin's a wanker who keeps starting wars.
Because of the J’s
Eww weed.
Quick question: if Belarus attempted to do anything to Ukraine, aren’t forces coming into Ukraine from Belarus fair game for NATO? NATO aren’t getting involved with Russia within Ukraine for obvious reasons other than providing arms and aid to Ukraine, but Belarus isn’t Russia. If this is the case, I’d give Lukashenko a month before he runs off to Russia and Belarus becomes a democracy.
Any nations are fair game for anyone. NATO is a defence pact, there is only a rule of minimum help. NATO or its members can decide anything they want. There are some elements of unanimosity, but Hungary is hanging by a thread, and Turkey would likely just keep out.
"Belarus becomes a democracy" Yeah countries all over the world have a great track record of just randomly becoming democracies.
They have defense pacts with Russia, but most importantly they have nukes russian nukes as part of those defense pacts so definitely Nato would not dare put a foot close to Belarus borders
You suc at geopolitics
We've got special forces/intelligence agents on the ground in Ukraine
Poland be like
"Do it, DO IT"
I am really hoping that the UN will set up some "training exercises" on the western border of Belarus
Ok you join the military and go over then rather than risk our troops.
The U.N. is a joke. Remember Rowanda?
@@lasagnajohn Absolutely agree. UN is useless as long as it allows countries such as Russia and North Korea to join.
@@lasagnajohn yeah, not anymore. You have Putin to thank for that
Ah yes, the UN... Which Belarus, Russia, and China are part of and which Russia has a veto in.
I don’t think the Kremlin should be too confident in the loyalty of Belarusian forces…..
As soon as he makes a move
POLAND: 😏😏🤓🤓😏
😏😏😏🛩🛩🛩🔥🔥🔥🤪🤪🤪
You think Poland would invade Belarus if they invaded Ukraine? You know it doesn’t work like that at all and that scenario would never happen unless they want to push the whole entirety of NATO into the conflict
Lukashenko = Putin's puppet his string are braking fast
He would be swissed like a cockroach
If anyone else got involved, Nato would step in regardless. Belarus would quickly find out that Russia won't save them.
@@craigquann yah Russia will never let Belarus fall
One has to understand that there are still about 85.000 Russian troops in Belarus.
There is no chance Lukashenko would deploy his army on the Ukrainian soil.
Russians are preparing another strike from Belarus territory.
That is all there is. That having in mind, the Belarus army is enlarged to 115.000 active soldiers and most of their arms come from Russia, Iran, North Korea, Serbia and Venezuela.
Here we go... give us the scoop Simon.
This is the largest war in europe since WW2, belarus' entire military is within the margin or error for the casualties on both sides. I don't think they change anything: especially with the relative fragility of lukashenko's position when compared to putin's. Luka's military serves him far better ensuring no one in his own country gets any ideas then it does dying alongside putins army: especially as the war could make the military less supportive of luka.
The military of Argentina was defunded in an effort to reduce the chance of military coups
.....wouldnt that also give the military a reason to carry out a coup as well?
@@kingsouther thats a very silly way to look at it, the military during times of peace threatened to make a coup multiple times for much more silly thing until they got defunded
@@felipea1399 good take. Thanks for educating me.
Every wrong leads to a correction
Not correct.
@@iblisthemage the government that restarted the court cases against the juntas and collaborators was the same one who defunded the military. There was a real chance of a coup in the mid to late 80s and during the 2001 crisis it was considered posible. I dont think its hard to unite the dots
Belaus acting all gangsta until Poland shows up to the party.
And US special force joining with Poland
Argentina getting a much needed boost is really nice. They could greatly assist in South America with cracking down on the drug war
How, though? Argentina has never had a major military operation outside its immediate neighbors. Argentina has major problems with corruption. Argentina has a long history of politically active military leaders. Argentina is on the other side of South america from the Cartel heartlands. Finally, all of Argentina's major resent purchases would not be useful in an asymmetric war in montains, swaps, and forests. Brazil, Colombia, and Chile are more likely to play a major role against the cartels.
@@AP-su9ocyep. What he/she said.
@@AP-su9oc same way allied nations help other allied nations during conflict even tho they aren’t close to the war zone. It happens everywhere
Using f16 and stricker apcs to crac kdown on gangs that use .38 revolvers? Bro it's obviously to appeal the conservatives. Dude is cutting budget on everything they dont seem necesary like the well being of its population but pumping a useless army is now a much need boost to do absolute jackshit.
@SS-tr5ru But that takes lots of logistics, equipment, and know-how to operate far from home. Modern armies need gas, electricity, mechanics, airports, radio, drones, satellite, and storage, all before even talking human needs. Argentina has neither the equipment, logistics, nor experience for this. The US and European militaries are constantly going to war abroad, often against rebels or in civil wars. Argentina does not. Argentina has only just started to invest in its military in over 2 decades, and it's all big conventional military equipment that is not helpful against insurgents.
A war front opened in the UK. It's the Oasis Ticketmaster Troubles. It will be bedlam in 2025.
We are being invaded daily by our enemies.. it wont be long now
The battle of Wonderwall.
Don't worry...your Mu$$ie Haji overlords will forbid the Concert as being Haram...😂
Thank you so much Simon and the team for keeping us informed so well so often and regularly you’re all the best .
*Belarus* "Gathers troops on the border.
*Poland* "Very heavy excited noises blyat"
Poland doesn't use blyat
Kurwa would be more appropriate
Polish people do not use "blyat". they use "kurwa"
Poland not gonna do shiet
@@rickycoverrubias6176If they do the world won’t survive NATO involvement will fuck the planet Jesus Christ
What he did not say was that Belarus was under Polish control for centuries, they were ill treated and have closer ties over the centuries to Russia. Poland and Lithuania are Belarus' real historic enemies not Russia.
Poland's military would utterly humiliate Belarus if they tried something like that..
they would. But Poland is a part of defensive pact, if they start a war they can no longer involve article 5 so Poland will not intervene
Excellent episode Wargraphics staff and Simon. I found out things I was not aware of.
This would surely invoke a response from NATO if Belarus does try something. What first came to mind actually was France sending troops. Despite NATO chancellor claiming “no NATO country will be sending troops to Ukraine”, I believe France would (and inevitably will eventually) send large amounts of troops to Ukraine.
They won’t. France has offered almost no support to Ukraine, in actual numbers relative to their size.
No NATO troops will step foot in Ukraine. It's just hollow promises
France is just throwing around the BS for political purposes.
Sending troops to Ukraine is insanely unpopular with the French population. Even if Belarus invaded it wouldn't change anything. Sending a large amount of troops to Ukraine would cause a huge amount of unrest in France and sending a low number of troops to train and give advice to the Ukrainian army has 0 benefits when they can just do it in Poland without the risk of getting French soldiers killed.
@@iblisthemage It is not just about Ukraine. Russia has been taking French assets in Africa.
Firstly, live the new outro,
Secondly, bravo for whoever wrote the script in this episode because the few jokes that were there landed amazingly
If Belarus invaded Ukraine they would face the same sanctions as Russia. It's economy is tiny, ranked 78"th globally. The economic implosion would be immediate and severe. The country would be plunged into an immediate depression with no chance of anyone helping them. Luksshenko knows this, and understands this is how dictators fall, so short of Putin threatening his and his families lives, Belarus troops are staying on their side of the border.
They have been sanctiones for years now. Imbecile
Well that's what they said the sanctions would do to Russia
@jonathand3842 and Russia to this day has to inflate their own currency and ban all sales of its currency to even stay afloat
@@jonathand3842and that's what happened. The Russian economy is weak, only sustained by being on a war footing. It was already bad before the war, but it's only gotten worse.
Sanctions would do nothing to Belarus, just as it happened with Russia. Putin won’t let their ally collapse. It’s still not a good idea for them to invade, but economic sanctions are not the reason why.
I wonder if Belarus joins the war if Poland will invade Belarus
Lukashenko = Putin's puppet his string are braking fast
He would be swissed like a cockroach
Sounds like a lads trip is coming up
Exactly how mad is a box of frogs?!
Almost as mad as a box of crayfish.
I haven’t finished the video. But I think the point is Belarus trying to say we will help in the area that borders them. But if Belarus joins the war I have a strong feeling the Baltic states and Poland will join.
I do as well. It would be so outrageously nasty, there is no way it would go unanswered.
Less we let what nearly happened in 2020 for Belarus go to pass… he does not wish to lose his hold
Everyone loves Belarus,, what a brilliant leader,, everyone loves him to ,,, Common sense is very rare in Europe 😂
2:40
Belarus Communications Officer "There's a reply from Ukraine regarding the troop movements, sir..."
Belarus Commander "What does it say?"
Belarus Communications Officer "Uh..it appears to be only four letters, sir...F A F O...it's signed R. Hrybov."
Lukashenko = Putin's puppet his string are braking fast
He would be swissed like a cockroach
I visited Minsk years ago after the USSR fell apartt...reeling, trying to find its footing and identity, it was reasonably safe. Today its an Eastern European North Korea... I wouldn't go today for all the tea in China...
Poland should invade Belarus from the West
if that happened the csto would be called in, then it would be csto vs nato.
get a grip. people in eastern poland are more likely to invade warsaw. the domestic political situation has become very inflamed.
I doubt they would join one of the most one-sided conflicts present day
Poland would take Belarus in three days, assuming the Belarus army didn't defect!
@@ALLMETAL1970 what is csto
@@ALLMETAL1970what is CSTO? Are there even any members besides Russia and puppets of his?
Belarus forces entering Northern Ukraine would mean Polish and other forces joining the fight.
why? No seriously...why?
Has there been some military alliance that no one told me about?
If I were Ukraine I’d leave the border undefended entirely. The first Belarusian boot on Ukrainian soil would mean Lukashenko is fair game. They’d make quick work of him and Russia would lose control of the entire country overnight.
Cute fanfic.
This is why you're not Ukraine or part of any intelligence agency. Quit larping
Okay Orc @@300thNPC
@@guyman1570 Okay botnik.
@@300thNPC at least I'm intelligent enough to understand ramifications
One of my favourite things about watching Simon on his more professional channels is watching him say difficult to say names “effortlessly” (ifyk) knowing very well that he spent a good amount of time practicing them. Brain blaze, Casual Criminalist and Decoding the unknown crew will know
I hope this one isn't about North Korean 50's era tech missiles somehow making it to US assets without being shot down.
Do not disappoint, you got Perun to compare to.
Perun is the shit
@@CharlesYuditskyhe is shit yes
too be fair, if there are 2 foreign countries at war, right across your border, it makes sense to have troops on your border. Not saying its guaranteed to be nothing, but if you are ever gonna amass troops on your border for an innocent reason, 2 other countries warring on your border is a good one.
I disagree. If you don't want to get embroiled you move troops back from the border to reduce tension. You move them towards the border to threaten. Lukoshitpants has been told by his boss to do this to give Ukraine something else to worry about and potentially cause Ukraine to move troops and therefore offer a small amount of help to Poopy. He'd be insane to go any further than that because even Poopy couldn't save him then. Poopy doesn't want that either, as the fall of the fat boy would be disasterous for him as well. No way he could fight Ukraine and send troops to Belarus to prop up the regime (largely from it's own people).
Belarus want to make sure the Ukrainian do not cross the border like they did at Kursk.
Ukraine is not at war with Belarus. There are no signs they would do that.
An excellent video. This channel's rapidly becoming the go to source of global news. Would be netter if you cite sources in the show notes however.
Belarus likely will not invade. Because it would be far too costly, risky (interior more than exterior), and their troops are garbage anyway. But Ukraine has no choice but to respond, which is what Russia wants. Smart move by Putin and Lukashenko.
Actually, Ukraine don't seem to be responding at all.
@@Cailus3542 thats why it seems weird to me, its such an obvious bluff that its screams red flags to me.
If the perceived threat is THAT low then there's no reason to respond... No reason to initiate either.
Unless Belarus is about to work with Russia on some type of offensive i just cant see any logic in any of it. This shit costs money, manpower and time. Why waste it on a worthless distraction?
If Belarus joins in then NATO needs to go all out . Get it over and done with.
Last time I was this early Russia was peaceful
russia has never been peaceful
@tripsaplenty1227 and I've never been this early
Mobilizing Belorussian troops also means arming members of the populace that may not like Lukashenka.
How does this dude put out so many videos on so many channel? Commitment to the grind
He has a staff of people who research, write, and edit his content. He just sits in front of a camera and reads a script
@@timpoolssentientbeanie5646I do think he leads the direction of his production team, even if he has “COO”
I demand NATO to issue a stern warning to Belarus to not involve themselves again and I hope Poland will group up on the Belarusian border.
That should be reason for pause.
Question: are you ready to come to fight in the area? Are you ready for emergency recruitment? I did service long time ago; as far as I have seen the politics now, the people that organized this war are the same that organized the weapons of mass destruction in 2003, and the same that organized insurgence in middle east (that send millions of arabs in Europe and increased rapes and criminality) and replace taliban with taliban in Afganistan. Just some food for thought; this is not the NATO of 80s.
@@christopherneufelt8971 Not that it has to do with anything, but since you asked; I have applied to the military six times and got denied six times for the sole reason that my country has a 'brothers served' regulation. No more then 2 sons of the same family can serve, so no matter what, I would not be allowed into the military.
I wanted, but couldn't.
Now it's too late, I'm past 50 and not fit for duty.
But to answer the question, 'ready for emergency recruitment?' Yes I was when I could.
@@Jila_Tana Hi. Am sorry for your dream that got shuttered, but you should considered that you are lucky, since from 1990 until now, every war was done for petroleum and religion; most of the people that visited operations, got back half a person since a war without a virtue to lead you, is a criminal activity, not a war (you can ask homeless veterans, or even better ask veterans in good mental state about their returned situation: mind opening!). If there is a war, the recruitment will eventually include 50+ years olds until 62y (there was a doc in FM's about emergency recruitment procedures back in the 90s), so there is still opportunity for service, even in the back lines as service personel; the fit for duty strategy is more concerned about your mental capacity that is clear than anything else; its just that when you are 20y. old they need to put you at the front; when you are in maintenance, they need only the deliverables in time. Take care yourself and the ones you love.
It is a feint to help putin distract, easy to see
NATO needs to get off its ass and handle Belarus. Tell them to move their troops or else and if Belarus invades NATO will put troops on the ground. NATO needs to draw a line in the sand at some point.
Oh, nice! More incremental escalation in the slow but inevitable creep toward WWIII!
NATO needs to enter the war at least in the air. But it would be wise to enter it on the ground as well. East Prussia needs to be liberated and so does Belarus.
Hmmm, not sure about that. prosperity and peace don't usually accompany forced border changes. East Prussia? Isn't that now Poland? The USSR took a big bite out of eastern Poland and compensated them by shifting the Polish border west. I'm guessing you mean Kaliningrad. I'm not sure the citizens of places always see invasions as liberation.
Putin is going to open another front in Ukraine...they can't win without Western troops. Which NATO country is going to volunteer first?
I don't think any NATO country will volunteer, but you are correct that Putin cannot win without Western troops.
@thearpox7873 Ukraine cannot win. They will lose due to attrition. Our Western leadership fully understands this military fact.
@@diggernash1@diggernash1 Ukraine enjoys an attrition of 0.2. Finland was outnumbered in the winter war. Napoleon defeated an army 5 times his size. it not the size of the dog in the fight it is the size of the fight in the dog.
@krisshnapeswanipeswani3190 I would prefer that you are right, but I think Putin may be prepared to sacrifice half of the men between 18 and 40 years old. Maybe he will be overthrown, but but hope is not a strategy.
@@diggernash1 oh but he can't.yiu see the reason there is no resistance to the war is cuss all the fighters come form marginal area and communities. He has an implicit agreement to not affect moscow,st petursburg and Russian majority metropolitan areas. He tried to partially mobilize some of them form the mid marginal steas and he had bakclash. You really think that middle class Russians which putins main base would tolerate it when millions of their children come back in body bags.the important areas are untouched right now. But the moment they are it's bye bye putin
If a third party gets directly involved with the war on russia's side, i cant see how russia could object to a ukranian ally getting involved.
Poland cheerleading for a military that adorns S.S. insignia is peak irony. All those jokes about the Pole's make sense now. Very dense people.
I don’t think Belarus has the military capability to be much of a threat on their own.
Belarus’ populace have always had close ties with Ukraine, much more so than Russia. Many in Belarus also remember how Belarus suffered during Russia’s afghan war.
Will Ukraine glazers finally admit that their precious Zoglensky is on the ropes? No they’ll just pretend that Kursk is some grand statement on the war effort 😂😂😂😂
Putin pretends it didn't happen. Where are your Nuclear weapons ?
Belarus: Let's go help Russia
Poland: Looks like Minsk is back on the menu boys!!!
But seriously, while Poland may not act directly due to political reasons it may "lose" some of its or uncle sam's equipment that may then be "found" by the Belarus opposition that may then go visit the capital - Minsk to have a "talk" with Lukashenko about denazification of the country
Welcome to Belarusian province a new province of Ukraine 🇺🇦
Hey! Belarusians! Winter is coming! You want to stay warm? OK! Just stay out of the war!
You are the man Simon
Simon once again your stuff is the greatest! Oh and am loving the beard now! TY for all of your channels!
If Belarus gets involved, as far as im concerned its all fair game. Let Poland duke it out finally. Enforce a no fly zone. I dont care. Russia has now escalated the conflict once again and its exhausting we just let them with zero consequence
Yeah are you gonna be the one fighting? You talk really big so I assume you're in uniform correct?
That’s of no concern to the west, though. As long as they don’t invade NATO, Idgaf. Perhaps you will go fight with the poles since you’re so eager for war and exhausted of nothing happening.
@@michaelpelzek8882@michaelpelzek8882 Iw ill the moment I turn 18, I will volunteer for the foreign legion.
The West could do much more to escalate short of direct intervention. I think it should.
@@michaelpelzek8882 A lot of Westerners have no issue egging Eastern-Europeans to fight each other, while sitting in the safety of their own home.
I was a very young child the first time I thought to myself: it wouldn’t matter if I went to sleep and never woke up.
I still feel that way more often than not.
Why can't we just have peace
Money bro? Them military executives got to make money💸💸
Not enough money in it
Have you met these things called humans? lol
Ask Putin bruv, we don't know, he kicked up this whole things a few years ago
Capitalism and Authoritarianism.
Thank you for talking about Indonesia in particular. I don't know as much about it as I should.
Europe for Europeans
Australia for Aborigines, North America, Argentina for Native-Americans....
@@Exxperiment626 i agree
@@Exxperiment626boomm you getting europised
Just musing, I'm hardly a military strategist, but what if a Nato nation, maybe a couple, just parked a bunch of equipment on the Belarus/Ukraine border? It's not exactly being directly involved, and I don't think an attack on Nato troops in Ukraine would trigger article 5, but I think it'd intimidate Belarus.
Stop addressing Wagner mercenaries as troops, soldiers, or fighters. They are mercenaries which makes them criminals under international law.
they are a private millitary company like many western PMCs and are legal
Private military contractors are more common now than ever and are used extensively by the U.S. and their allies
@@timpoolssentientbeanie5646 They are mercenaries. Doesn't matter that you call a garbage man a sanitation engineer, he still picks up the garbage.
They are a violation of international law.
@@timpoolssentientbeanie5646 Doesn't make them anything other than mercenaries.
@@karlik4861 They are still mercenaries, and criminals under international law.
Belarus' military is relatively small compared to Ukraines, and Ukraine was also deploying forces to their border, mining it and destroying bridges among other hostile actions, as Ukraine seems to have been willing to attack outside of Ukraine it would make sense to have troops on the borders with a country that sees you as a hostile party to a war harbouring enemy personnel. Again the forces have little meaning - the real thing to keep in mind is that Belarus is a nuclear armed state that says it will use them if it is attacked. Also as far as Argentina I wouldn't underestimate them there is a massive young Argentinan disaspora -- including many former miltiary members, they are also known to have extensive spy rings and involved in "underworld" like operations. So where Argentina may lack in military forces on part with the major powers, I would say there is likely a dimension to many countries that is more geared toward soft power operations. Also life in Argentina has been hard for some people that likely has made people a little harder.. Argentinian's are involved in industry/mining and farming which by their nature raises men as opposed to metro folks who are not really hardy nor experience hardship that may be a facet of a war. While indeed there are a handful of large cities I still feel that the culture of Argentina is still somewhat rugged and based on machismo mindset.
Lukashenka was already at the verge of losing power after the election of 2020 when massive protests occurred in Minsk. However, most people were hesitant because they knew that Putin is unpredictable and he will not accept it and they feared his response, which was not unreasonable. Belarus is a much smaller country than Ukraine and they could not withstand a 'special military operation' on their own. However, with Russia occupied elsewhere, perhaps now is the moment for a change.
Belarus need to stay out of it unless they want American himars hitting them… if Russia can’t stop American equipment you think they can???
I hope you know a lot more of strategy than economics. Oil prices dont fall when supply is reduced, they rise. Ceterus paribus.
NATO troop should be allowed inside Ukraine territories
"as mad as a box of frogs"
So British.
Oddly enough, despite all of this, if Argentina decided to take the Malvinas today; Argentina would probably be allowed to keep them. UK doesn't have the political unity or military budget to defend them.
Yes it would be a dumb move by lukashenko, but that doesn't mean he won't do it. We all thought the same about Putin in 2022 (don't give me that hindsight bias, we all said the exact same thing back then).
Never use logic with an egotistical dictator.
First, Ukraine said that it stations 120k troops on border with Belarus. Likely, actually trained troops Kiev doesn't want to waste. Possibly - a bluff that they're there. Either way Belarus is helping Russia without doing anything.
Second, all that "Belarus is going to die" sounds extremely similar to what was said about Ukraine, but here we are.
Third, war is one of the tools to boost the popularity. Not to mention that one could cancel the elections like Zelensky did under a pretext that we're at war. And if it backfires? - well, lucky potato, there just happens to be a bunch of Russian conscripts stationed nearby. And they aren't exactly foreigners about entering other CSTO's member state's territories. So it'll only help Lukashenko unless the army sides with protesters.
Fourth, Belarusian economy is pretty much a single thing with Russian one. Lukashenko's original plan was to reunite with Russia and become the leader of both, though it didn't came to be true during 90s with all that "allied state" stuff it seems that it isn't exactly forgotten.
Fifth, "the leader is unpopular and does an unpopular thing so we rebel" doesn't work 95% of all times. The cases where it does have a chance are something like the state of Russian Empire was in - inflation, poverty, abuse on top of an ongoing war, however, even that has exceptions - North Korea and Syria as the prime examples.
Sixth, people who're saying that Poland would step in - it won't. There's no "love" for Ukrainians from the people. At best it is "the enemy of my enemy is not my enemy... for now" and the government isn't exactly overwhelmingly popular to pull that off too. People do remember what Soviets did, what Germany did, what Russian Empire did and what Ukrainians did, and Kuleba coming to speak about how actually Bandera is a nice guy and the crimes of insurgent army were actually done by the Soviets (based on "trust me bro™", and after his first attempt was met with a scandal) isn't helping. If a nuclear war breaks out Poland becomes one of the primary targets because no way in hell Russia and CSTO can beat NATO by normal means. If you think that Poland should take a risk - go enlist into Ukrainian volunteer army and fight Russians yourself, giving us an example of your noble sacrifice (or at least acquire an evidence that their nukes are dysfunctional). Like, for real, if it was that easy, there would be numerous NATO troops in Ukraine and on Russian Far-East long time ago.
I think if Belarus was to try to go into Ukraine, Poland has been rearming to the teeth. To quote another RUclipsr "It's like a little European Texan". Poland is looking for payback from WW2 until the fall of the wall.
Isn't it funny how they're now in the same alliance as Germany? How convenient of them to forget what they went through at the hands of the Germans.
@@PrimericanIdol Well, Tusk and Scholz have had a falling out recently and they hate eachother again
@@PrimericanIdol, the Sovets did them just as bad, mind you, mass deportations and death. They pressed Poland for 40 years as well. Germany is now a free market democracy that is an ally. Historical animosity does not matter. Japan is a stringent ally of America. Britain and France are excellent friends. Egypt and Israel are partners.
@@krisshnapeswanipeswani3190 Israel is a scourge on humanity. Bar none.
Considering Wagner has been there for more than a year, it's possible that you're all sleeping on the potential damage Belarus can do. Ukraine may be battle tested but so is Wagner, and I doubt they've been there for more than just sanctuary; the real reason they're still there could be to train them for a future offensive. One that would be the straw that broke the camel's back so to speak
It may also be the last straw for Poland. It wouldn't take much for the Ukrainians to invite the Polish military to defend their northern border, and it's the sort of limited intervention that Washington, London and Paris might be okay with.
@@Cailus3542 Warsaw might not be down with it. Poles and Ukrainians have always had a shaky relationship, but they both hate the Russians more. Poland doesn't want in the war but I have no doubts that they're ready to fight at a moment's noti d
@@Cailus3542 Poles are eager to fight, for Poland. None of us care about what the other countries are doing as long as it doesn't affect us directly
Belarus joining the war would inevitably drag France and Poland into it also..
It would be a stomp. There wouldn't be a chance.
If Belarus joins the war then Russia will be able to annex the rest of Donbass, Zaphorizia and Kherson. But also conquer at least half of Mykolaiv and Odessa. Reaching Transnistria.
Moldova will then join Romania.
Russia will then be able to eventually conquer the rest of Mykolaiv and Odessa with the help of Transnistria.
The Belarusian and Russian military is too weak to occupy half of Ukraine.
What is amazing to me is that Ukraine hasn't ALREADY considered Belarus a valid military target. Why would they hold back? Invasion started from there, Wagner was hiding out there, etc...
They are fighting a war in the south and the east, the last thing they need is to also be fighting in the north. Invasion would also undermine international support. Lukoshitpants will do enough of Godfather Poopy's bidding to keep the right side of him but stops short of committing political (and actual) suicide. Putin has a feeble ally to put a little pressure on Ukraine and part of his buffer zone. They mutually benefit. Although they'd both want more they settle for what they can get. Lukoshitpants falling would be disasterous for Poopy, and Poopy falling would be disasterous for Lukoshitpants.
Belarus is in the unusual position of being able to be highly strategic with respect to the RussoUkraine war, without having to do anything more than just stationing its troops on one side of their own country. By positioning their own troops to their own border with Ukraine, it forces Ukraine to deploy enough forces along the same flank just to counter their presence, which takes plenty of heat off the advancing Russian forces to the southeast.