Hey everyone! Alfonso Peccatiello makes his debut on the show. Please join me in the comments section and let me know what you think. Also, let me know who you'd like to see on the show this spring. We're building out a great guest lineup. Thanks for your support. 💙Julia
Michael Pento Brian Hirschmann Bill Fleckenstein Jim Chanos John Paulson Stan Druckenmiller Jeff Gundlach Steve Hanke John Greenwood Nick Gerli Doug Casey David Lin Richard Heart Gregory Mannarino
And Alf has been early for years and thus has been wrong according to his own definition. He, as well as most people I follow have failed to see the big increase in government spending and consumer spending, saving almost none of their disposable income. But, this will lead to a deeper recession even though the lag has been longer than most people have thought.
You should start each and every show reviewing these guys previous predictions and if they got any of then wrong, ask for an explanation. Only then can they earn another 45 mins of my time
No, that's not what causes inflation, and the recession signals continue to accumulate. I remember people like you with the same complaint in early 2008, "Where's the recession? The economy is still strong!" and it had already started.
Hi Alf and Julia, I live in Western Australia 🇦🇺 where many people work in the Pilbara (flying in and out to work) digging up iron ore to sell to China. This mining kept the Australian economy ticking along during covid. The iron ore price has recently decreased to $117 (US/T). However, it is believed that China has a backlog of apartments still being built. There is possibly another year or two of demand for iron ore still in the pipeline…. FMG and Rio Tinto are still busy as ever on the ground…. As long as iron ore stays above $90 (US/T) they should be still profitable. Australia didn’t increase the interest rate as high as the US or New Zealand and they are anticipating a rate cut soon. On top of that, due to our crazy immigration policy there has been a huge increase of people coming to live in Australia and there is a shortage of housing. These big swings of central bank and government policy over the past few years have created world wide uncertainty.
Disagree about China's apartment situation - there is a 'completion cliff' coming due in the next few months, where all these underwater property developers will slowly finish their properties, often with government support. Once that supply is done, no more apartments being built. I think iron ore demand is going to absolutely plummet, and Aus is really gonna suffer. Not to mention iron ore mines are opening up elsewhere round the world, eg Simandou due to come online soon. I reckon Australia's economy is about to get absolutely farked.
To be honest I have been waiting to see the fallout from Evergrande and Country Garden in Western Australia for over 2 years - at the moment it is business as usual. But we will see what unfolds when iron ore prices drop.
Alf just for your reference you are correct most residential mortgage rates in Australia float however in New Zealand the lag affect us far more prevalent as most mortgages residential, business and commercial fix for between 1 to 5 years. Most common is the 1 to 3 year bracket where the refinancing off averaging historical lows ie 3 % are rolling onto high 6 and 7% on leveraged bubble high ratio to income debt coupled with a cost of living crisis many are in shock as they re fix with asset prices dropping. As a aside under our last far left government and now under the Australian government as so much paper equity perceived wealth has been generated from residential property both countries have opened the floodgates on immigration both to try to keep asset prices elevated and also to inflate GDP to hold off a technical recession. However most of us who have boots here in the ground in NZ believe we are in a entrenched rolling recession hitting different industries and households at different times. I am with your thesis this super bubble cannot remain inflated here in NZ the incomes do not sustain this we still gave a foreign buyers ban and on the fiscal side we are planning on defecit spending at least until 28. We actually need higher interest rates to clear ourselves of the over leveraged and restore some normality into our base structure. We have plenty of housing coming online simply as we have a ageing population with many owning multiple properties and tens of thousands of empty homes bought prior (pre 2017 -18) to the overseas buyers ban simply to park some money. Much like some areas of the US ie Florida and California holding costs of these homes being property rates, insurances and maintenance are soaring and as asset prices diminish many are beginning to try to get out ie Auckland now has the most residential inventory in the market since 2011 🤣😂 This will be a slow demise for many over leveraged IMO. Thank you both really enjoy Alf.
@@TheJuliaLaRocheShow Unfortunately I know that the views are higher when the content skews more negative. Keep up the great work and it is nice to see the growth of your channel.
That's not how an investor thinks. An investor thinks, "Is it better to get 4.5% with high risk late in the cycle, or 3.5% with low risk in treasuries or a money market fund?"
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content have followed Alf for a long time great RUclips provider Cheers Frank ❤
![Yailin La Mas Viral, @kreizyk.official - Dale 2 (Remix) [Video Oficial]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/JaYHBzgqz94/mqdefault.jpg)
Hey everyone! Alfonso Peccatiello makes his debut on the show. Please join me in the comments section and let me know what you think. Also, let me know who you'd like to see on the show this spring. We're building out a great guest lineup. Thanks for your support. 💙Julia
Michael Pento
Brian Hirschmann
Bill Fleckenstein
Jim Chanos
John Paulson
Stan Druckenmiller
Jeff Gundlach
Steve Hanke
John Greenwood
Nick Gerli
Doug Casey
David Lin
Richard Heart
Gregory Mannarino
Brian Hirschmann is on next thursday :) @@issenvan1050
@@TheJuliaLaRocheShow 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
Frank Giustra. @@TheJuliaLaRocheShow
Bill Fleckenstein will be on next week :) Thanks again for the recommendation!
And Alf has been early for years and thus has been wrong according to his own definition. He, as well as most people I follow have failed to see the big increase in government spending and consumer spending, saving almost none of their disposable income. But, this will lead to a deeper recession even though the lag has been longer than most people have thought.
You should start each and every show reviewing these guys previous predictions and if they got any of then wrong, ask for an explanation. Only then can they earn another 45 mins of my time
Dude been saying this for 18 months
Exactly😂🤡
For years.
Great Interview Thanks Julia.
Thank you, Brandon!
This guy has been screaming deflation and recession for over a year. Neither have occurred. Inflation has been very stubborn due to FED going soft.
No, that's not what causes inflation, and the recession signals continue to accumulate. I remember people like you with the same complaint in early 2008, "Where's the recession? The economy is still strong!" and it had already started.
Good to see those metrics are pointing in the right direction! Keep at it Julia, you'll achieve your dream!
Sorry commodities and emerging markets also crash in any major recession
Two of my favorite RUclipsrs!
Good stuff ! Will be interesting to see who will be right after this tightening cycle is done
Hi Alf and Julia,
I live in Western Australia 🇦🇺 where many people work in the Pilbara (flying in and out to work) digging up iron ore to sell to China. This mining kept the Australian economy ticking along during covid. The iron ore price has recently decreased to $117 (US/T). However, it is believed that China has a backlog of apartments still being built. There is possibly another year or two of demand for iron ore still in the pipeline…. FMG and Rio Tinto are still busy as ever on the ground…. As long as iron ore stays above $90 (US/T) they should be still profitable. Australia didn’t increase the interest rate as high as the US or New Zealand and they are anticipating a rate cut soon. On top of that, due to our crazy immigration policy there has been a huge increase of people coming to live in Australia and there is a shortage of housing. These big swings of central bank and government policy over the past few years have created world wide uncertainty.
Disagree about China's apartment situation - there is a 'completion cliff' coming due in the next few months, where all these underwater property developers will slowly finish their properties, often with government support. Once that supply is done, no more apartments being built. I think iron ore demand is going to absolutely plummet, and Aus is really gonna suffer. Not to mention iron ore mines are opening up elsewhere round the world, eg Simandou due to come online soon.
I reckon Australia's economy is about to get absolutely farked.
To be honest I have been waiting to see the fallout from Evergrande and Country Garden in Western Australia for over 2 years - at the moment it is business as usual. But we will see what unfolds when iron ore prices drop.
Great job Alf! It is a pleasure to listen to your opinions.
Alfonso for president 🎉
Alf just for your reference you are correct most residential mortgage rates in Australia float however in New Zealand the lag affect us far more prevalent as most mortgages residential, business and commercial fix for between 1 to 5 years. Most common is the 1 to 3 year bracket where the refinancing off averaging historical lows ie 3 % are rolling onto high 6 and 7% on leveraged bubble high ratio to income debt coupled with a cost of living crisis many are in shock as they re fix with asset prices dropping.
As a aside under our last far left government and now under the Australian government as so much paper equity perceived wealth has been generated from residential property both countries have opened the floodgates on immigration both to try to keep asset prices elevated and also to inflate GDP to hold off a technical recession. However most of us who have boots here in the ground in NZ believe we are in a entrenched rolling recession hitting different industries and households at different times. I am with your thesis this super bubble cannot remain inflated here in NZ the incomes do not sustain this we still gave a foreign buyers ban and on the fiscal side we are planning on defecit spending at least until 28.
We actually need higher interest rates to clear ourselves of the over leveraged and restore some normality into our base structure. We have plenty of housing coming online simply as we have a ageing population with many owning multiple properties and tens of thousands of empty homes bought prior (pre 2017 -18) to the overseas buyers ban simply to park some money. Much like some areas of the US ie Florida and California holding costs of these homes being property rates, insurances and maintenance are soaring and as asset prices diminish many are beginning to try to get out ie Auckland now has the most residential inventory in the market since 2011 🤣😂 This will be a slow demise for many over leveraged IMO.
Thank you both really enjoy Alf.
economies to me seem to be inversely related to change in rugby performance . Italys rugby in on the rise so beware a black swan event in Italy 😊
Wrong again😂
He’s been wrong for the last 2.5 years. At some point he’ll be right.
Talking about US debt crisis is foolishness.
US debt crisis is INEVITABLE. Eventually, bond investors will get nervous and move their money elsewhere.
You always give wonderful interviews, I hope your channel doesn't turn into another one of these doomer channels.
Keep up the great work.
Thank you, Ryan! I'll try to mix up the guests and their POVs.
@@TheJuliaLaRocheShow Unfortunately I know that the views are higher when the content skews more negative. Keep up the great work and it is nice to see the growth of your channel.
My second best-performing video was with Tom Lee! And that was positive. Will definitely aim for a mix of market/economic views.@@Ryan_Tinney
The moderator is pretty but my question is that is she a vampire
Maybe.
One of the most persuasive, and yet most clueless commentators on RUclips. Never seen him make a correct call in 2 + years of watching him
This guy published Zerohedge’s chart as his own. He is a disgrace. He is not good at what he is doing anyway.
Great stuff, thanks again!
Missed the entire UPSIDE....
4.5% BETTER than ZERO...
That's not how an investor thinks. An investor thinks, "Is it better to get 4.5% with high risk late in the cycle, or 3.5% with low risk in treasuries or a money market fund?"
Julia is the best host, hands down. Very elegant and warm hearted.
Aw. Thank you so much. ☺️💙
Great interview. Thanks a lot. Alf has always something to offer.
I think Japan is also one of the countries that are very interconnected economically with China.
Alf is excellent
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content have followed Alf for a long time great RUclips provider Cheers Frank ❤
great interview
Love his accent.