5 Scenarios for Russia After Putin’s Next Term
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- Опубликовано: 30 сен 2024
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Casey Michel piece in Politico: '5 Scenarios for Russia After Putin’s Next Term'
www.politico.c...
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Thank you.
The referendum in Southern Jutland about a new border between Germany and Denmark in 1920 could perhaps serve as a counter argument to your argument about such a process being illegitimate if it does not happen in two steps via independence.
Thanks so much for pointing out Anders!
Same thing goes for Silesia after WW1 - it was decided in referendum where it should belong. Probably many such historical examples, but most of them were after the borders were changed to establish "details", after the fact was clear that borders needs to be changed. So it wasn't question of if, but how.
@@adaslesniak True, that is an important nuance.
Vlad: "We will talk for probably 20 minutes..."
Me: *looks at progress bar and starts smiling*
"No, dear Vlad, we won't."
I have never got it even close to right!
@@VladVexlerChat You've kept it consistently from going beyond the golden ratio (think, the next number of the fibonnaci sequence, from your estimate)
Going back and editing durations to match videos is clever, but plenty of youtubers get tired of doing that every single time.
One-takes are more authentic than frenetic acceleration spirals
@@VladVexlerChat just put any random number out there before every video,
at some point youre bound to get it right!
stochastics is on your side! ;)
Glad to see you up and talking.
Beautiful community reporting in
Great!
Reporting for duty
Reporting for beauty!
@@karabenomar 😅
Still here. Glad to see you up and looking better. Here's for some healing tea!
Thank you so much!
I do not understand how a discussion of the past and future of Crimea can be undertaken without a SINGLE MENTION of the indigenous people of Crimea, the Tatars. These are a people who suffered genocide and deportation on a terrifying scale under both the Tsars and Stalin. With the independence of Ukraine, many returned to their homeland, only to face consistent prejudice and some repressive measures by the local Russian-speaking authorities, and then re-incorporation into Russia with Putin's invasion. Today, the majority of surviving Tatars in Crimea and probably of the larger number in Tatarstan are sympathetic to the struggle of Ukraine and see themselves as cultural brothers of Ukrainians, though speaking a different language. They look forward to a free Ukraine in which their distinctive ethnicity can find some freedom at last. This is not a universal view among Tatars, but it is a substantial and valid one. Crimea has always been a melting-pot of nations, but the Tatars were the leading ethnicity of the peninsula from the 12th to the early 20th century, and only ceased to be so because most of them were murdered, starved to death, or deported. I say this merely from following the history. I have no special connection to the Tatars, and no reason to favour or disfavour them. It just annoys me that they are left out of this discussion.
Do you know why the Crimean Tatars were deported?
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u Stalin deported and murdered tens of millions of people of various ethnicities. He did so because he was a monster who killed anyone on a whim. There is never any justification for genocide --- only evil. Putin is an admirer and follower of Stalin. He too murders on a whim, and the only "reason" is the same evil.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u Accusations of Nazi collaboration, something Stalin was quite willing to throw around at any group he wanted an excuse to deport.
@@moritamikamikara3879 So there was no collaboration? If Stalin disliked the Crimean Tatars so much, why didn't he deport them before the war?
What i find really disconcerting is how easily some Russians, who claim to be sympathetic to Ukraine, use the term "New Territories" when referring to occupied Ukrainian land. It's as if they have limited understanding of the concept of borders.
I also noticed that expression “new territories” being casually used by seemingly open minded Russians in interviews. One reason why I don’t put much hope in “the people”.
We can't say 'occupied'. 7 years of prison for such claim (because of course our army not conquering, it's freeing, yeah come quotes around). Better swallow and not pronounce your thoughts at all. If we have to refer to it than how else we could?
At least they're not using the term "Disputed Territories" like some other chauvinistic ultranationalists.
@@Nowherenear-w1d Good point...we often do not realize how strict the rules are within Russia. We are used to doing and saying pretty much whatever we want. I totally understand why so many Russians are apolitical, if I lived in Russia I would probably just keep quiet too. We can't fairly judge Russians' inaction since your system is so different than ours.
I even read online that it is illegal to send money through the mail within Russia. Here in the USA we do that all the time...parents and grandparents always send money in birthday/Christmas cards.
I know Vlad would shoot this down as not being political, but I am beyond caring about what happens to the Russian people. I don't see any realistic possibility of the West being able to influence events in Russia. We would be far better off concentrating on the mammoth task of counteracting Russian misinformation in the West and properly arming Ukraine - and ourselves.
Vlad, when his health is good, looks 15 years younger than his actual age. When its bad he reminds me of my favourite verse from the Velved Undergrounds song "venus in furs": "I am tired, iam weary i could sleep for a 1000 years, a 1000 dreams that would awake me, diffrent colours made of tears."
Yikes man, great to see you back. Hope your situation improves. 🍀
💛
Slowly, with help from your content, I am beginning to see and analyze things more easily.
Particularly - responsibilities towards my country (how I affect politics), and observing the tendency in myself to accept things on a whim.
On a different topic , I see how important communication skills are. You are very eloquent. I now feel how a complex idea can be conveyed in the most efficient way.
I tend to avoid your videos for about 25 days of the month, because my mental diet is like fast food - and i am "moving" slow, so i need time to prepare for a proper meal.
Anyway , great chat!
Glad to see you in good health, Vlad! Well as best as can be I suppose. I'm going to listen and clean the kitchen. Thanks! :)
Thanks! That picture of you being bedridden, looking frail, gave me an idea of the effort and spirit it must take to keep working, especially here.
Oh Vlad, we have to quit meeting like this! We cannot both be ill or well at the same time, throws the whole Universe off kilter! I see you, and hope you feel better soon. 💚
Good to have you back dear Vlad...that last post had me scared. : ) Many prayers for better health days. 🌻🌻🌻
you're looking a whole lot better...sorry to hear that's not entirely the case 🤗
Mate, it's great to see you. Really. I'll settle down to watch this over the weekend. Best wishes Vlad.
Thanks for calling out Casey for his repeated misrepresentation of Navalny
Glad to see you again!
Glad to see you again. 😊
Whatever happens in the future, one thing is for sure: the Russian population won't change much (unless a massive violent disaster happens within Russia), therefore Russia will always be in hands of "difficult" leaders. Personally I would prefer if Russia gets divided in different countries, so that way they can keep barking but being harmless (as it happened with the muslim world after the world war). I know that philosophers would prefer to keep endless ruminations about Russian politics, instead of something so practical, but that's how the world goes.
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Casey Michel piece in Politico: '5 Scenarios for Russia After Putin’s Next Term'
www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/03/16/5-scenarios-putin-next-term-russia-00142466
Support Vlad's work on Patreon!
www.patreon.com/vladvexler
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www.paypal.com/paypalme/vladvexler?country.x=GB&locale.x=en_GB
Hello Vlad! I think you might be wrong about how a part of one state can't transfer directly into another state. I've heard the border areas between Denmark and Germany were transfered to Germany after a popular vote. And that it has also worked out very well. (I didn't get why you thought there had to be a transitional stage of independence?)
The archipellago situated in the Baltic sea in between Sweden and Finland almost transfered to Sweden, because in 1918 some 96,2% (!) of the inhabitants signed a petition to reunite / transfer to Sweden, since the all speak Swedish and are culturally closer to Sweden. (We're talking two Nordic countries, so it's very much a matter of nuance! 😄) However eventually (the precursor to) the UN decided that since Finland has both Swedish and Finnish as official languages, and Finland also gave a sugarcoated offer of very high degree of autonomy, with their own parliment and taxation etc, it decided it should remain part of Finland. (It is also demilitarised, but that has to do with the shared intrest of Sweden and Finland to keep Russia away fron the islands. (Actually also Britain was keen to keep the Russians away, to the degree that it even invaded the island during the Krimean war.)
Anyway, I'm quite confident that if a direct transfer from Finland to Sweden had taken place, it would have worked out perfectly fine. Maybee this is a halfway supporting and countering your view?
Both solutions were carried out using processes outlined by the Swedish Peace and Arbitration Society peace movement. (There is a possible personal connection to Alfred Nobel and and the peace prize. But certainly an ideological connection is there.)
Thank you for presenting food for thought! 🤗And I completely agree with all your reasoning about the dishonest insinuating writing on Navalny, and also risking to depolitizicising opposition in Russia.
Small comment, but I love the clarity of saying that despite the kind of discourse that the author of the article provides being ubiquitous, it is still unacceptable nonetheless. Really cogent
Looking much much better. Great to see. A bit like Major Tom in the last.
6am here on Melbourne. Good to see you.
Yes, we are here, Vlad :)
Take good care of yourself!
Lots of love, Vlad.
🤡🤣
Welcome back Vlad!
Thank you!
Lovely to see you Vlad
Thank you, Vlad, and all the best for recovering to a better state of health.
🇺🇦 Перемоги і миру всім українцям! 🇺🇦
Thank you for the education, Vlad.
'I probably won't make much sense' - have you seen the world? You'll do for me.
Vlad, pardon a personal question: how many languages do you speak / write / read? I believe I have read that English is not your mother tongue, but you express yourself with a fluid eloquence that I greatly admire. If only our American leaders could know, analyze, and express themselves within 2 two orders of magnitude of your platinum standard!
As Joseph Campbell taught, the point of the myth (not an untruth!) of the Sword In The Stone is that, for the true hero, the heroic act is easy, that is to say, natural. Thoughtful expression of truth is your heroic act.
God Bless You. You are one of my heroes.
His mother tongue is Russian. He was born in Soviet Union.
I wish our leaders were as intelligent as Vlad, and also as kind and caring as Vlad. The beautiful community is actually smarter and kinder than many of our American politicians. I do feel Biden as a person is a good guy with a kind heart. Not sure about all his policies. Trump is more of a big city shyster. 🤣 He is selling Bibles for like $60 😯 I get ads for teddy bears and all kinds of knick knacks Trump is selling to make money. 😆 It is kind of embarrassing our potential new president reminds me of the home shopping network.
@26:35 do you happen to remember the Quebec referendum of 1995? The vote only failed by around 1% and I remember spin doctors on the news postulating how they would make a case to become the 51st US state. I doubt the Clinton administration would have given them the time of day if the referendum had somehow passed, but I'm less sure how a total wildcard like Trump might approach such a scenario if given the chance...
Good to see you back in action again! 👍
Yes, Political Science can be rigorous, but should never be confused for Mathematics 😹
Probably not. But I had to think a bit about the nature of mathematics and it's ontological grounds.😅
Good to see you up and about. Take care. Much ❤
i don't think Russia will be democratic or even free, I think the country was never free, ever it doesn't want that unfortunately...
And thank goodness. Because in your newspeek being "democratic and free" means being a slave and a colony of the West.
khelloooo!!!!
Khhhhhhhhi!!
"Knock knock knock....Is the beautiful community there?" Vlad... Sincerely, THANK YOU for being a genuine breath of fresh air. Though it's sad that just being a genuine, thoughtful human being is seemingly such a rare thing (at least) on the internet. With the loss of Tom Scott, there's very few channels to find such thoughtful content. That said, with creators like you, I have faith there's still hope for the future of the platform... and maybe society in general lol.
It hadn't occurred to me that you lived in the UK. I just looked. I'm sorry you have to manage this condition to live your life. I hope you can get to play that piano for relaxation and healing as much as possible.
I really enjoy your chats. I hope you feel better soon.
While speaking about Putin, commentators, probably, could start reframing from the terminology “Putin’s next TERM”.
His presence is unlimited, without a term, so the linguists need to coin a word encompassing “gone only if dead and it is made known and has been proven to be a fact”.
I loved ❤ your journalistic rant! There is however no substitute for THINKING through for themselves what they (people - we & others) read, see, watch and listen to.
Very good materiał, thank you. How vigiliant we have to be for survivre
I agree that he should have defended Navalny as much as possible before bashing him instead of just bashing him as much as possible.
But Navalny saying that Ukraine holding Crimea is an insult to Russia really was a huge problem. And saying that taking it back by force was illegal is not a fix to that.
Navalny portrayed it as an injustice, and when you do that you are always creating momentum for a reversal.
>Where is the parliament (of the Russian opposition)?
There is nobody to elect such a parliament - anti-war Russians in Russia think the opposition has lost touch with Russia, anti-war Russians outside Russia would rather get into their new countries' politics. Nobody has any legitimacy to form a parliament (unlike, say, the Belarussian opposition which has an elected president leading it). Besides, the last serious attempt to make one was in 2012, where some form of "election" did happen, but it was a complete flop and soured everyone about the whole idea. So it does seem that Russian opposition is, unfortunately, a non-factor in present or near future Russian politics.
Something I wonder is the following - in the case that we take a Russian pivot to China in the medium to long term as given - what kind of internal effects will this have on the power structures within Russia?Specifically - will it be possible to maintain the securocrat-oligarch class structure that’s formed the power structure/bargain of the state? Will they be happy in terms of their reduced potential to spend their money etc - and/or will they be as relevant?
Vlad, you are looking pale and thinner. Having the same, I do know how difficult it is to sit upright, to engage in the world. Your RUclips channels alone are more than many could manage. I admire your dedication and resolve. Please take care and, as always, wanting the very best for you. Diane
Vlad, how is saying that Crimea should be part of Russia and that annexation should not be undone, but not supporting how annexation was done is not equals to supporting annexation? Navalny literally supports the results of Putin’s endeavor.
Good to see you in better health. Please take care.
It depends how you preserve Navalny’s words: ruclips.net/video/v31rYSucz_Q/видео.htmlsi=hgMIA9yFuPC-rEFf
As he did not make a clear anti annexation statement and did not say “Crimea is a part of Ukraine”.
We can assume that if he was on putins place, he would probably do the same, but in a different way, as he sees a problem in a way it was done but not in the thing itself
Very clear explanation.
The way I understand it is that the main article being discussed is technically in line with some of what Navalny has written, but is almost entirely opposite in implication and spirit of what Navalny tried to communicate.
It reminds me of translating classical texts in high school, where the “literal” translation and the “spiritual” translation sometimes yielded opposite meanings in the respective translations.
So glad to see you back and feeling well enough that a "twenty minute talk" turned into over thirty minutes! Wonderful to see and hear you Vlad.
Get better fast please!
Or to put it differently, the social sciences and the exact or natural sciences each require a different set of mental tools in order to process the types of information proper to them. One of the major purposes of education, apart from providing a knowledge base and mental tools in and of themselves, is to teach which mental tools are applicable to which kinds of information.
So pleased to see you. Greetings from Africa❤️🇿🇦 please continue to get better.
Hope your health improves, great video
Wishing you healthy. You inspire me to be thoughtful
Hi Vlad! Beautiful community here! Take care of your health please. Even when you are delicate, you make 94% more sense than most of the commentariat. Anyone can make up silly percentage odds about scenarios as click bait but global politics is too contingent, especially in today's very connected world. Americans tend to like to generalise and to want to jump to the ending, look for a flawless hero in a white stetson to ride in and save the town (Navalny), and do not accept unpredictability or chaos in phenomena. Yeah, I know I just generalised too but I wrote 'tend'. Social science is a misnomer in my view. Hari Seldon is a fictional figure. I don't give democracy in Russia even a 1% chance. It has no deep roots and no history to draw on. Nobody will try to impose democracy. Maybe after a cathartic upheaval, democracy would emerge organically. Mafia family wars, nationalism or slow and chaotic disintegration are all more likely after Putin departs the stage. Putin's regime is stable in the near term but not the long term. It is brittle with no safe mode of succession. Worrying about Russian stability is like worrying about the tide approaching a sand castle on the beach. No point playing King Canute. Russia is riding a horse along the beach to its destiny as the last empire. The tragedy has to play itself out to the end.
This is one of my favourite channels.
Glad to see you, Vlad!❤
Thank you, Vlad. You're back and making carefully prioritised, beautifully expressed discussion points for us.
Good to have you back vlad
Always a pleasure to learn from you, Vlad. Stay strong, best regards. Carry On, Sir.
Get well. Your health is everything. Sending love to you
Happy to see you upright and sharing your knowledge with us all❤
Выздоравливайте, Влад! Кстати, читали ли вы книгу Карен Давиши "Клептократия Путина"?
Putin stole all examples😂😂 😂
My immediate takeaway:
The presumed super-fast transition to someone /more/ mythical than Putin deserves more scrutiny.
Is that really a 15% chance?
The growth of a post-Putin Moscow-flavored democracy...
Who is telling you that's only 5%?
What democracy? USA democracy? When you got to choose between the Biden and Trump election after the election.
Thanks to Putin Moscow is now inhabited by 30-40% Muslim migrants, that number is growing every year.
Indigenous Russia population is in deep demographic collapse.
Do you really think Islamic migrants are interested in Western liberal democracy? 😸
It is good to see you again but please get some rest. Your health is very important. I am so sorry you have been ill.💖
Thank you Vlad…I really enjoyed the session with you.
Glad you are doing better Vlad ❤
27:26 without re-checking, im pretty certain it was done exactly like that, the referendum was for independence, not for joining RF,
both for Crimea and for DNR/LNR;
Only later came the "decision" by the "legitimate authority" of the "small independent country" to join RF - but who says that a country needs a second referendum to join another one? If its constitution doesnt say that?
Fun fact, there shouldve been a referendum in Russia as well to accept Crimea, with enough time to debate it, and that didnt happen neither, violating Russian constitution xD
Yes, the 2014 referendums of the LPR and DPR were for independence, although extremely poorly conducted, but that’s all they could do in wartime. In 2022 there were referendums on joining. Although Vexler said that there must also be a desire to let these countries go, and this already conflicts with the fight against the separation of 95% of the world’s states, I think.
And according to his interpretation, I think it will be extremely difficult to find cases.
Дорогой Влад. Приятно видеть, что ты хорошо выглядишь.
Creemia 1993- 2014 was still a very popular destination for Russians, not only touristic but also scientific and entrepreneurship
nobody had a problem of it being Ukraine although for the majority it was still "one country"
I love you so much Vlad, may your health improve 💛🌻
I did appreciate your "torture over" comments. They would have been even better if they'd included a comment on the modern versus ancient usage of the word "science" because this is the source of much if not all of the confusion surrounding the fundamental nature of "political science". As Aristotle pointed out, the nature of any particular type of inquiry (academic discipline in modern parlance) depends on the nature of its subject matter-and those natures are NOT the same.
Political Science Departments really do need to replace the word "Science" with something else. They won't of course because they enjoy the free ride of boosted (and unwarranted) prestige they get from being associated with "science" in the modern understanding of that word.
I myself received a "Master of Science" degree solely because - get this - the Department would receive more money if their program had the word "Science" in it (true story, Department & University unnamed (to avoid embarrassment))...though it wasn't a "Department of Political Science".
The prestige of Roger Bacon science as it exists today is harmful to other ways of knowing 😢.
Thanks!
very much enjoyed the media analysis
Margarita Thatcher was against German unification, Eastern block liberation and USSR breakup
Great to see you back. ❤❤❤
What a nice opening :). Seeing you give us such insightful feedback is always enjoyable, especially considering your health issues. Furthermore, even if you don't make sense (BS imo), you are prolly the greatest on this topic. THANK YOU !!
Glad to see you up and around Vlad. Thanks for this
I totally agree with you on your comments at the end about the Russian opposition. Wish you good health!
Interesting analysis. The word "stigma" comes to mind but it's difficult to place it. Like a wrong but normal reaction when there is a lack of understanding. Is stigmas beneficial for journalism or is it the other way around?
Great to have you back, Amigo.
The beautiful community IS here 🥰
Good to see you Vlad
Algorithm
Somebody told me Putin's mother lived to be 97 !
Let's hope he hasn't inherited her genetic longevity !!
Can we even dream about a new regime and peace ?
We cannot lose hope that is for sure !
Russian history is all about seemingly entrenched regimes collapsing suddenly -sadly not yet giving way to a stable society with freedoms we would see as essential !
They know their history their issue their necessary debates - we will mess things up if we interfere !
Politicisation is the key as you say !
Sending you love and strength Vlad. My health is similar to yours (different condition) and I completely understand 🧡
But Vlad, broccoli IS toxic. It tastes like sadness.
Fun fact, broccoli sprouts supplements have had a not causation, but some correlation of improved outcomes in kids with Autism.
Hi Vlad! So nice to see you ❤
Very insightful
More radical could mean more self-destructive power, like in China "the gang of four".
😊 welkomen!!
I hope you are recovering.
Yeay!!! Looking good Bro!
So glad to see you back!
Please take care! Vlad.
Navalny not only have said questionable words about Crimea, he also have bad words about Georgia and some other xenophobic stuff. He DO was disgusting far right dude, just he shifted little bit towards centre while building his political career.
Welcome back Vlad. Your " ubiquitous but unacceptable, nonetheless." is my new personal 'quote for the day". I share your criticism of journalism without context or caveats(along with the general degradation of journalistic standards) Thanks for the thoughtful discourse.🌞🌻
good to see you dude x much love and thanks for the vid
Much love!
Good to see you Vlad!🎉😊❤
Hello, its good to see you Vlad. I Hope your health continues to improve 🙏 ❤
Lovely to see you back in action action Vlad! Insightful as always.