Hi Tristan, great explanation and videos. Thank you so much. Can you please also do an advanced version of this including new drug Vs standard, and including different perspectives of costs. Thank you.
Many thanks for the video! Just one quick question. Looking forward to your reply. So, in this video, time-varying refers to mortality rate? If we also allow for morbidy rate to change over time, the cell C3 will be variable then, right?
Yes, absolutely if the morbidity rate (the rate at which people transition from being healthy to being diseased) changes over time (e.g., as people get older) then C3 would be varying with time.
Thanks! If you can find it at a good price I would recommend "Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation" by Briggs, Sculpher and Claxton. www.herc.ox.ac.uk/downloads/decision-modelling-for-health-economic-evaluation
You can have time-varying payoffs and/or time-varying transitions. Just because you have one doesn't mean you need the other. The key thing is to ask "Is it reasonable to assume this thing (payoff, transition probability) is constant regardless of time since the model start (e.g., age) and time since entering this health state?" and if the answer is no then you need to make it time-varying.
by using road density ,road geometry and traffic composition parameters at one junction how to make transition matrix by using field data can u explain sir by taking one example regarding these sir in excel
Thank you for the wonderful video Sir. I tried to replicate it but with 5 stages instead of 3 stages like you did, the problem is i cannot maintain the same total state membership in every cycle (in cycle 1 i got 675 but in cycle 3 i got only 659. do you have any tips on how to overcome this?
Hi! It's essential that for every state, the transition probabilities from that state (including the probability of remaining in the state) sum to exactly 1. If you do this then you shouldn't get anybody "leaking out" of your model. When you have some time varying transition probabilities you need to take extra care over this. It's not a terrible idea to calculate every transition probability that changes in each cycle. In the example video, we could also have a column which calculates 1-qx-0.03, the probability of remaining in the healthy state.
Hi Tristan, I am experiencing the same issue. I've added another state (4 states in total but I still have a big number leak for the dead stage, and the remaining states decrease into tiny numbers. Checked that everything sums to 1. I think it's something to do with my calculation, but I did follow every step of the video. @@TMSnowsill
Hi i am watching this video after 2 years. Is it possible to do for life insurance product pricing? Also may I ask are you an academic or professional (if so what)? Thank you!
Hi Tristan, great explanation and videos. Thank you so much. Can you please also do an advanced version of this including new drug Vs standard, and including different perspectives of costs. Thank you.
Many thanks for the video! Just one quick question. Looking forward to your reply. So, in this video, time-varying refers to mortality rate? If we also allow for morbidy rate to change over time, the cell C3 will be variable then, right?
Yes, absolutely if the morbidity rate (the rate at which people transition from being healthy to being diseased) changes over time (e.g., as people get older) then C3 would be varying with time.
@@TMSnowsill Thank you a lot!
Love your videos. Keep them up! Are you able to recommend any books on markov modeling for health economic models
Thanks! If you can find it at a good price I would recommend "Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation" by Briggs, Sculpher and Claxton. www.herc.ox.ac.uk/downloads/decision-modelling-for-health-economic-evaluation
Will we always have time-varying pay offs if we have time-varying transitions? ie are they always related with same values or not necessarily
You can have time-varying payoffs and/or time-varying transitions. Just because you have one doesn't mean you need the other. The key thing is to ask "Is it reasonable to assume this thing (payoff, transition probability) is constant regardless of time since the model start (e.g., age) and time since entering this health state?" and if the answer is no then you need to make it time-varying.
Hi! thank you for your videos. I'm begginer so what is qx mening? And could you rise your videos voice pls?
by using road density ,road geometry and traffic composition parameters at one junction how to make transition matrix by using field data can u explain sir by taking one example regarding these sir in excel
Thank you for the wonderful video Sir. I tried to replicate it but with 5 stages instead of 3 stages like you did, the problem is i cannot maintain the same total state membership in every cycle (in cycle 1 i got 675 but in cycle 3 i got only 659. do you have any tips on how to overcome this?
Hi! It's essential that for every state, the transition probabilities from that state (including the probability of remaining in the state) sum to exactly 1. If you do this then you shouldn't get anybody "leaking out" of your model. When you have some time varying transition probabilities you need to take extra care over this. It's not a terrible idea to calculate every transition probability that changes in each cycle. In the example video, we could also have a column which calculates 1-qx-0.03, the probability of remaining in the healthy state.
Hi Tristan, I am experiencing the same issue. I've added another state (4 states in total but I still have a big number leak for the dead stage, and the remaining states decrease into tiny numbers. Checked that everything sums to 1. I think it's something to do with my calculation, but I did follow every step of the video. @@TMSnowsill
Hi i am watching this video after 2 years. Is it possible to do for life insurance product pricing?
Also may I ask are you an academic or professional (if so what)?
Thank you!