Great question. This is a VERY inexact science. At the same time, I want to illustrate that it's entirely reasonable to think that FCF can grow much faster than revenue. The company is investing HEAVILY in R&D to meet the opportunity. So far, that's absolutely been the right move. And they've been investing HEAVILY in sales, and with traction outside of US police departments, that's been the right move. I think it's reasonable to assume the company can have even better FCF margins in 10 years than when they were *just* a hardware company. The FCF margin in 2013 (pre-Axon): 22.2%. Therefore, 25% doesn't feel like a stretch
Similar company is CLBT, I bought in the 4s and 5s, it's been doing well for me. I could see a potential merger down the road between these two market leaders
Cloudflair expensive 😵💫😊. Hope you’r right . Don’t own it ,maby one day. I think the moat is wide for the market they have taken, but the market will probably not stand by and watch while they take the whole world (competition will come)
There is something missing from your analysis. The PE is over 100. What makes you assume they will keep growing for ever? How much of the percentage of police force that uses it currently? What is the TAM?
Did you watch to the end? Or read the response to @thewat870? This company is NOT optimized for profits or free cash flow. Its margins on FCF could likely triple between now and 2034. The reverse DCF at the end showed a 20% top line growth rate is what's required
I knew it. I’ve been wanting to buy it before the earnings report, but was hesitant. This is so good to hear. Thank you.
You should NEVER buy before earnings. It is a gamble, do it if you like to put your money at risk. Are you a gambler or an investor?
There's LOTS of times where you should buy before earnings.
What is the basis for assuming they can have a FCF margin of 25%?
Great question. This is a VERY inexact science. At the same time, I want to illustrate that it's entirely reasonable to think that FCF can grow much faster than revenue. The company is investing HEAVILY in R&D to meet the opportunity. So far, that's absolutely been the right move. And they've been investing HEAVILY in sales, and with traction outside of US police departments, that's been the right move. I think it's reasonable to assume the company can have even better FCF margins in 10 years than when they were *just* a hardware company. The FCF margin in 2013 (pre-Axon): 22.2%. Therefore, 25% doesn't feel like a stretch
I thought it was expensive so I went in with a starter position and it just kept going up! Now I wish I had just bought it all outright
Similar company is CLBT, I bought in the 4s and 5s, it's been doing well for me. I could see a potential merger down the road between these two market leaders
Agreed
Axon's acquisition of Fusus is huge
13 bagger. Gotta love that level of compounding.
Woat=wide moat
Amazing execution. 5 consecutive years of growth exceeding 25 percent in this environment. And outlook similarly high.
Which one is it then?
Great energy Brian
Probably should mention the SBC to free cash cashflow ratio - in this case it doesn't have a very good FCF Yield
Thanks Brian
Great trick with this FCF margin. It show US how subjective company valuation is:)
Highest conviction should be whatever I sold. Like TSLA, CMG, NFLX, and of course AXON.
THANK YOU!!!
up 2.3% on earnings!!!!!!
Long only is a hell of a drug, let me just 0 CapEx and keep that at a 20% growth-rate. Looks like thesis creep to me.
📈 $AXON 🎥👮♂️
Cloudflair expensive 😵💫😊. Hope you’r right . Don’t own it ,maby one day. I think the moat is wide for the market they have taken, but the market will probably not stand by and watch while they take the whole world (competition will come)
AXON is too expensive.
Everything good is expensive 😃
@@AlexA-ww1sp- I will wait for black Friday, I have patience.
There is something missing from your analysis. The PE is over 100. What makes you assume they will keep growing for ever? How much of the percentage of police force that uses it currently? What is the TAM?
Did you watch to the end? Or read the response to @thewat870? This company is NOT optimized for profits or free cash flow. Its margins on FCF could likely triple between now and 2034. The reverse DCF at the end showed a 20% top line growth rate is what's required
P/E 138.92 - are you serious?? Google's P/E is 24.13
Agreed, it's way overpriced.
Respect but is nah unless you don't care where their money comes from
Peter Lynch would recommend it.
It's the high PEG-ratio he would be turned of by.
Their money comes from making police officers more honest.
🎥👮♂️
Hello Brian! Great video!
Do you have an Instagram?
Would love to follow you on daily basis!!!