Why the next six years could be Putin's last term in power | Mark Galeotti
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- Опубликовано: 7 май 2024
- "We might see the elite beginning to think, well, basically, either we break with Putin now or we risk finding ourselves hanging from a lamppost in a week or a month or a year's time."
Putin's glum demeanour at his inauguration likely reflects the 'brittle' state of his regime, Prof. Mark Galeotti tells Frontline on #timesradio
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The Tsarist imperial system still rules Russia. The Tsars never really went away. They were just rebranded.
"The Tsars never really went away." True. In addition, many Russians still have a serf mentality.
@@jmcw9632Wut? I thought modern Royals are just figure heads with limited powers.
@@bradleymilton1720Not this time. Imagine a man who is actually a K.I.N.G. and was made a soveriegn/royalty. Something The U.K. refuse to do asking, "Why should we"?
@@bradleymilton1720Not in Russia.
Many indeed move back to the UK as the royal families of Europe are all intermarried. Why we must get rid of our own imperial authoritarian remnants and the UK must become a republic! All royal property returned to the people these thugs stole over generations.
Wow, one of the few rare westerners that is really aware of what is happening in Russia
🤣
I hope this is sarcasm
😂
@@kayatoya Go on then, what's happening in Russia?
@@MicheldeGeofroy Come on Mr laugh-until-cry; what's happening in Russia then?
Hoping it will be much shorter than that
Thank you for this marvellous interview Mark Galeotti is always on point with his insightful expertise on this war.
Are you in possession of more than two neurones?
Putin should withdraw his troops from Ukraine and end this pointless war.
Sure. And give Crimea to Ukraine so Ukraine give Crimea and Sebastopol to NATO for a big NATO naval military base. Sure.
@@marioceva7163Crimea is Ukraine. Nobody is giving Crimea to NATO.
@@marioceva7163 ukraine should be free to do what it wants. They are sick of ruzzism.
Putin should turn his troops on that British island of Cameron the twit ,
🤫
Did you say the same to Bush and Blair when they invaded Iraq and killed a million civilians?
"In many ways Putin [incompetence] has been Ukraine's secret weapon in this war."
Brilliant analysis.
don't ever try any analysis on real life things, ask a friend😂😂
Ukraine is loosing..,
Sure - he could have started nuclear drills on day-1 and mobilized then, or crushed Ukraine in 2015...
Russia regards Ukraine in NATO as existential
Ukraine will be lucky to still hold Odessa in 6 years...my guess is not...
one could say the same about you - blithering fool
I'd be amazed if he's alive in six years. That's the height of optimism.
His name is not JFK. How do you feel about Castro or Xi?
you's be amazed if you find a toothbrush in the morning
Zonker, What do you mean?
Joe Biden won't make it.
He's lasted longer than any Western leaders
This monster won’t complete this term he just awarded himself. He has an unhappy ending waiting for him
Stop crying on social media
@@AbdikaniAli-bw6ud Que?
Gaddafi's fate for poo tin!
Putin is the man. Go find a safe place and cry
He isn't a monster, he is a brutal autocratic despot, Stalin was a monster.
It's nice to see that the Western thought & analytics develop and will soon reach the Ukrainian level of 2015 with their infallible 'Crimea will beg to take it back in a year', 'the bridge is impossible to build', and last but not least: 'Putin will die in two weeks'. Stay on it!
As always: top interview!
Putin is 70 something so he’s already exceeded his Russian male life expectancy.
And he's been dying with terminal illness for a few years now (western media has said)
Just wonderful to be Russian. Especially for young Russian males. Putin's mobik bait for the zero line.
I wonder what the odds are for a 'Weekend at Bernie's' situation?
I married a lady from the former soviet uzbekistan. Men die in their 40s there.
We have very few relatives who made it past 40.
From australia
@@hermeticxhaote4723 If that's the case problem solved. Or is it? Are you certain that next Russian President will be pro-western and pro-american?
Love hearing Mark discuss these topics,
He’s so intelligent and well articulated.
😂
Are you being sarcastic
I blame the yoga...
@aaron4387 what is the highest form of wit? I had never heard that about sarcasm. That said, I agree with you re- Mark G.
@@nicolasolton
My apologies
It’s been posted to the wrong person somehow
I think Putin looked really tired. He is over the whole Ukraine war, he has had enough.
Unlike China taking over the WHOLE Tibet - with our support - Russia doesn't want Ukraine at all. Just the Russian easternmost sliver. For obvious reason.
Yeah he looked tired Ong maybe he should of slept in a motel 6
It does not seem that way based on recent Kremlin reshuffle, hope I am wrong?
@@nicolasolton May be reshuffle here. There it's election.
This man can do a lot of damage in six years
And that's why the west should negotiate with him instead of just antogonizing him and risking further escalation
@@trqsteryou can’t negotiate with this guy, agreements must be respected to be worthwhile
@@trqsterwhy negotiate with the west ? It's Ukraine that Russia has invaded
@@trqster That is basically giving hm free reign to do that damage. If Putin is not stopped in Ukraine it will be Estonia next.
@@TheFrewah Maybe you should take a listen to us professor John Mersheimer or Professor Jeffrey Sachs sometime - thank me later :)
Very informative, lively exchange, thank you!
Yeah I like to know some one before I put it in
@@RonValdes I can't figure out what you're saying here or how it connects with my simple statement of appreciation. Care to elaborate?
He will go the way of all dictators.
Die in his bed?
He isn’t a dictator but ok
@@Skabanis what makes you think he isn't a dictator?
I could listen to Mark all day!
Go on then
get a life
You need therapy for your bot comment.
Of course you can you clown😂 You can't think for yourself so you let others do it for you😃
Jerking it to him?
I am not compelled by the argument that taking Putin out is a bad idea because someone worse could come along. People said that about Stalin too and it wasn't true.
The Tsars actually had a succession plan. It didn’t always work as planned, but there was a plan.
Even the Soviet system had a group of bureaucrats who were in a position to choose a successor. But if Putin dies or falls the succession becomes a complete free-for-all.
It’s even possible that Russia will break up into different cities and regions, each controlled by a different warlord. And none of them will be able to control the buffer states that border Russia.
You are forgetting the vid of Kadyrov lifting polystyrene rocks😂
🤣 I’d forgotten !
Times radio...during interviews could you please put official subtitles? RUclips close captions missed some of what Mark was explaining. Other videos need to have official subtitles.
6 years? I was betting on 6 months…
People have been saying that for 6 years now
That's how you lost.
@@1stsampan ….the year is early…and I like my odds….’
@@windfall35 what odds?
@@windfall35 Enjoy your odds while they last.
4:00 "hand all that power to a successor and rely on his successor's loyalty and gratitude" la de la
Please explain how Putin is going to instal another dictator in the first place?
There are rumours that Shoigu is going to be arrested soon, that is, if he hasn't already been arrested.
Does this show tensions between various elements of the Siloviki?
He will never be arrested. He’s Putin’s friend
Zelenaky has already arrested several high ranking Ukranians.
Let´s hope not, the incompetence of Shoigu is a gift that just keeps on giving.
He was absent yesterday so he may be toast
That rumor is old
Times Radio churning our great interviews all day every day, thankyou
Times Radio churning out comedy
@@loppadus Tine Radio is Propaganda!
Not Ukraine, but Deep State News!
@@loppadusExcellent reply
I think you must have meant 'churning out bilge'.
@@greenetolstoyabsolutely bilge
He's 70+ years old. The headline's not the boldest statement ever made
Why do I have to turn the volume all the way up when watching Times Radio? I do not have to do this for any other channel I watch....
The idea that Putin is not going to be in jail or swinging from a lamppost within the next six years is repugnant.
Whoooooooo Putin The Boogeyman
😯
The only thing that is repentant is that it might take as long as six years.
..but he may well be burgled by the back door for a ponce dance
It was never going to happen.
The intelligence experts just told their masters what they wanted to hear - not the facts.
Putin will survive another election 2030. All miltary industries will make massive profit. Not many russians alive not ucrainians either. But he dont care!
"Assad must go!"
He is ten years younger than Biden
He is not 10 years younger than Brandon. He is not Putin. Putin has different eyes and lips. A different face. The one that is now on the scene is much more evil..
Yes, but the average life expectancy for males in Russia is around 64 and in the US around 76 years. Both leaders are well beyond this, but on the other hand have access to the country's best healthcare.
@@nks2840doesn't matter when your Bidens age you need to be at home with your kids not running stuff. Though Biden will probably keel over within the next 6 years versus Putin based in their ages.
I hope I'm wrong but I don't think the Russian social and political culture could produce anything like the Solidarity movement in Poland. There's no will for something like that now.
@ 3:40 for more than a decade, Putin hasn't been able to step down for fear of retribution. Duh!
LOL.... why the next 6 years could be A 71 year olds last term in power.
Fascinating discussion.
A Trade Union did it in Poland but there are no such institutions in russia, and no opportunity to set up any such body that could attract popular support without their leaders being arrested and jailed for ficticious offences.
It may be a battle of oligarches for advantage as the economy fails and they are called on to pay out for Putin's ambitions more than they gain by their illegitimate ownership of former state assets. They may even combine, and deploy their combined militias to challenge Putin's private militia - the russian army has no appetite for defending the Kremlin (witness Prigozhyn's march on Moscow which met no real challenge).
Putin is losing control. His end is coming.
Yes, I doubt kgb would be popular
Some good points here. It is worth to give thought to the fact that a union can be formal and informal. Not only that, it took one video of Putins lavish estate via a drone on RUclips to really propel country wide protests. With the idea that an informal union fueled by a slowing economy, and reinforced by Western outlets of a failing Russia, it is possible for a grassroots movement to maybe not overthrow, but force the hand of those who own such corporations. As Mark mentioned in the video, the Russian elite consists of opportunistic oligarchic kleptocrats (oof) so it wouldn't be wrong to give space for the possibility that a regime change could from the bottom up. Mark alluded to the idea, but didn't have time to elaborate and I suspect he would mostly subscribe to the idea.
I hope you are right
Mark Galieotti has a very informative and very listenable podcast called In Moscow's Shadows, which I highly recommend.
Can he debate SPECIFICS? For example, German speaking military invaded Serbia (closest ally of Russia) three times since Austro/Hungarian Empire. Not once did Serbia invaded Germany, the country that is in NATO today - after starting WW I and WW II. Who is really the aggressor here? BTW Russia responded by diplomatic protest, not by military which would be WW III they saved us from..
Thanks
Did he mention Beijing Shadow? The Communists you know.
I like the Sun Newspaper and its readers
They are zombies🤓
"A very ornate coffin."
I would prefer a window.
👍. In a time and place of our choosing.
A great podcast. Mark is a very smart analyst with a cracking sense of humour.
I hope he dont last that long.
Doesn't look like Putin has retirement plans other than the plan the Grim Reaper has for him. Putin isn't leaving Ukraine. He has no ability to admit he's an epic bungler. He has no reverse gear. So he'll drive Russia off a cliff.
More likely neither Biden or Trump will outlive him...
@@trqster Excellent quesswork, doctor.
@@jim2376 Well a 71 year old is more likely to outlive either a 77 or 81 year old. It's not rocket science doc!
@@trqster You're right. It's not "rock" science. That would be geology, doctor. You don't know the state of their health so drop the guesswork.
Ride the tiger...reminds me of Ronnie James Dio lyrics.
Holy Diver comes to mind
Putin's not riding a tiger. He's riding a turd that just won't flush.
I think it's a reference to the Traditionalist School of philosophy that is so popular in Russia. More specifically Julius Evola's book Ride the Tiger: A Survival Manual for the Aristocrats of the Soul (1961).
@@slavkovalsky1671
RIP RJD
"You've been down too long in the midnight sea
Oh what's becomin' of me
Ride the tiger
You can see his stripes but you know he's clean
Oh don't you see what I mean
Gotta get away, holy diver, yeah"
"Putin is stuck"
"Putin is losing"
"Putin is gone mad"
"PUTIN HAS CANCER"
ETC
What's happened to the Chechen brigade that once fought in Ukraine? I haven't read anything about them since Bakhmut.
They only existed on tik-tok
They never really fought. They are barrier troops used to shoot Russian troops if they retreat.
Why would anyone listen to a channel that has proved itself wrong almost 100% of the time?
BRILLIANT 😂
The only way Putin is leaving office is when he keels over or gives up power. My money is on the former.
Mark rules!
Western media needs to immediately begin talking about Putin's successor - even if it's someone besides Medvedev who Putin has chosen to succeed him in the past. A serious propaganda campaign would put a lot of pressure on Putin and the oligarchs who would prefer someone besides Medvedev, and may actually expedite his removal. It would be interesting to watch an internal struggle begin for succession while Putin is purposefully weakened.
once western media anoint someone as successor, their a dead man walking. And of course, a women is out of the question
You really think Russia cares less about western propaganda..??
The sanctions have worked - in a sense, there are now little if any bonds between the west and Russia.
The NGOs that the west would once have used as a front are long gone (as they are in many countries,.)
Our CIA puppet died in a FSB jail...
I like the way you think. Let’s do it ! Start now.
yep
The thing about a proactive person is that they are never stuck.
Nice. Tx Mr Galeoti
Descendant of Italian P.O.W. continuationalist...
There were too many investigations into his crimes, so he opted for all this mess to cover them up. This is the real reason behind his behaviour.
Exactly! Crimes and corruption.
Any SPECIFICS?
@@1stsampantoo lazy to do research?
The Hague has a fine mattress ready for him!! What is he waiting for??
The position of any potential successor would actually parallels Putin's current situation. Necessarily, the successor would view Putin as a potential rival - probably the strongest potential rival - that would need action taken on the file. Any successor would definitely want to prevent any "return from Elba." Putin knows this, and this is why he's "stuck riding the tiger".
No time like the present.
Why is it such a bad things for Russia to disintegrate..
The conversations are so much better then the click bate titles do suspect.
The year is 2030, Putin just won his 6th term with landslide... Times: This will be his last term, he'll end up in a coffin 😆
🤓🤓🤓🤓
Lol
6 years?!?! Isn’t he in his 70’s please tell me he’s not gonna be around that long.
I like to think about as playing golf and I definitely found ball washers
What could be done to rust his bomb buttons? To get to him and faster if needed ? Other would need to be way closer to Russia or there, inside, just about to lay hands on him and those in charge no?
What a sentence! You are an Einstein!
Surely we can sit by and leave him in power for 6 years…..I’d like to see the Russians deal with him.
A very ornate coffin
🤔 Hmmm 🤔
Unmarked grave, more likely.
A gallon of petrol more like.
Please, please, please, not another six years of Mark.
Why do dictators live so long?!?!
Pride comes before the fall
I have one simple question for our political leaders of the West:, "How do you expect the Ukrainian Armed Forces to fight like NATO while we refuse to give /sell/loan them the platforms they need in order to fight in our style? Why are we expecting NATO air superiority from a country without any of the necessary equipment?"
Last year's counteroffensive was pushed by Pentagon's arm chair generals. It was based on combined arms doctrine, despite the fact that Ukraine had no airpower, a critical element. It's frightening that we could have such dopes stop our military, and that our political leaders don't have the guts to remove them and bring in wartime leaders. Pencil pushers and bureaucrats who haven't seen active duty in 25 years. Lincoln had the same problem in the Civil War, then he fixed it.
EVERYONE HATES THE CLIP IN THE BEGINING.
Y'all predicted it damn.
Thank you for a possible outcome.
There is humor in everything, and maybe no one else finds this funny, but here we have President Putin 'elected' for a 5th term and the title of this videocast is 'Why the next six years could be Putin's last term in power | Mark Galeotti'!
Yes, little Putler is an IMMORTAL 🤡
Yes - the only thing he needs to worry about is old age and disease..!
Solid economy (if we could be so lucky..), High popularity (not that he needs to worry too much about elections..),
winning a major (in their view existential) war vs the West..
The BRICS now fed up about US policies after their brutality has been revealed in Gaza...
(lets see if Biden can even really face down Israel...lol)
This is pure cope
Galeotti is solid
The fact that Russia has done so little with the period of time that Ukraine was under supplied says a great deal about Russian capability.
eventually the chicken is gonna come home to roost
Who is going to replace him? Anyone making the move is going to fall out of a window
Mark u should be worried about Economic or Social unrest in England not in Russia …
Everyone’s got an opinion.
а какое дело британцам до путина у них своих проблем нет? россияне сами разберутся что им надо.
Taking out the bridge will deal a massive blow to Putins domestic image. Loosing access, even temporarily (6 months even), will not be a good look.
I think a lot of the "that bridge is meaningless" talk is coming from Kremlin propaganda; they want that bridge in tact! Even with that alternate rail running, taking out the bridge means they NEED that railway to supply Crimea, meaning it would have significant supplies aboard those trains. Drop the bridge, then target the rail relentlessly and force them to start flying supplies in. Cargo planes are slow/make big targets for a FPV pilots (no idea if they have any ground-air offensive missile systems, which would be the best way to harass their air supply)
@mfallen2023 I could be wrong (obviously), but I have a feeling that this is going to take a turn soon. With exactly that scenario , losing Crimea (also not being able to resupply via black sea), will tip the domestic tide against Putin.
By no means will that be the end of it. These new "boundaries" will be contested for decades imo.
Make bridges go boom again ✨️
@@williamwillaimsyou are wrong….
@@danp2965 .... don't be shy silly billy. Why>
How?
Its no longer used for military at all - so its actually a war-crime, but who's counting those anymore right..? lol
It will just push them to attack harder than ever..
I cant believe you dreamers...
Thanks for the hint about 3rd chechen war. I hope Cia is watching this video. An opportunity indeed.
One has to suspect Russian intelligence involvement in instigating the initial Hamas attack on Israeli citizens back in October 23. It diverted most of Western attention away from Ukraine and help pave the way for the 6 month holdup in US Congress for the $61 billion military aid package. If true, it was a very clever ploy.
I imagine you’re suggesting a similar ploy in return. Not a bad move. Give Pootin something else to think about. 🤔
China is at the back of muslims and it will not allow to someone disturb Russia, because China needs Russia as proxy against the NATO.
you can be sure the GRU is,,,oh, there you are
Tintin got a job at Times Radio?
I agree. I'm more fearful of who follows him...
What about Putin nuclear black mail, could we take it serious?
Dues Putin take international laws serious?
Of course not, a dog that barks will never bite, right?
He allways does that
Just Like Kim jong Un every year
But it is true that he have (if they all works) more nuke that usa France and uk combined
And that don’t know how crazy him and it generals are
call his bluff. It would be the sign of absolute weakness
@@alhambrabiker1476 no
If its illegal than the rest of the world is just as guilty for not doing anything
I abhor Putin, and I agree with you.
This should be the strategic goal of NATO...
27:45 Yes more competent but also someone more realistic. I asusme we're talking field marshal Erich von Manstein when we're talking more competent leaders. But Manstein really only had one goal, preventing the USSR from taking over Europe. He may well have been willing to make concessions in the west to improve his chances in the east.
Six more years!
There's no way solidarity could start any time soon in Russia.
What "solidarity"??? They just had democratic election. And looks like NATO made Putin more popular than ever before.
But he has a lot of doppelgangers and can rotate them forever in the throne...
Yes he’s like a puppets with the same hand up his @**e😂
Times radio seem to be fascinated with the Ukraine war.
Fascinating interview - Mark communicates exceptionally well.
15:00 Not to mention a huge swathe of Al Qaeda and ISIS figthers where Chechen, sure alot of them ended up dead but the one who are still alive have been fighting constantly since the last chechen war. If they return to Chechnya they bring with them vast experience of fighting exactly the kind of war they would be figting agaisnt Russia. Checnya could easily be to Russia what Afghanistan ended up being to the soviet union.
Western leaders need to grow a spine and send special forces skilled, experienced pilots, a adults to work their tanks and artillery. The way their prosecuting WW3 now, their liable to lose.
Putin's not riding a tiger. He's riding a turd that just won't flush.
Ukraine still have excellent chances of winning so long as we make sure they have the stuff they need.
@@DaDungeand your nonsense is part of it😂😂
You are so misinformed.
@@DaDungewith what troops
6 years seems like a long time. Hopefully he'll be gone way before then
Putin will do a lot of of damage in a short time.
Pootin as a scapegoat ..... ?
..... how about scapepootin ?
Or a scapecuntin
Ras pootin 😂
Pootin empire cannot even win a tactical war with a smaller country like Ukraine how much more a EU country? He tried to show his manhood threatening to use nuclear weapon, but basically he use his nukes as crying game.
He attack Ukraine indiscriminately while he cries if Ukraine fight back?🎉
Obvious he has 71 years.
Kremlin's health care is unbelievable 😎
FUN FACT: Two boys are born today, one in Bangladesh, one in Russia. At birth, which boy statistically has the longer life expectancy? 🤣🤣🤣 And with Russia being at war, the gap is probably getting larger. Way to go, Russia!
72 vs 69 and declining in russia. Better be born in Bangladesh