The Dark Forest is one of the scariest concepts in sci fi to me. The idea there are all these civilizations out there, but they’re all terrified to reveal themselves and hide as best they can.
this is the smartest move tbh...we know the universe has been around much longer than our civilisation has developed. there's no way we can win if we're invaded
@@endor8witch Probably the smartest move, but also futile. Aggressive civilizations with the technology would periodically survey star systems and eventually find us anyway.
@@WitoldPilecki551 That is assuming they have access to the resources needed to conduct interstellar survey plus the universe is huge. The best they can hope for is stumble upon a civilization. rather than pinpoint their location. Earth was dumb enough to sent voyagers and transmit radio wave and detonate nuclear bomb in space and if anyone was watching at our general direction, we are fucked.
Why are y'all under the impression that aliens haven't contacted us or never visited. Don't be so closed minded. There's tons of proof that they've already been here. My questions is, why keep it a secret.
This is what i imagine when i think about life out there in the universe, and why we haven't found anything yet. In my opinion we should let go of the idea of openly screaming out our location to the universe, we have no idea what lurks in the dark, and whenever i hear someone say they want to "meet" the aliens all i can think of is how foolish and dangerous such an idea is. We have to keep quiet and put our house in order, lest we attract the attention of our own doom.
On a darkly positive note, I find it strangely heartwarming to ponder the notion of the Bezos, Branson and Musk types who seem to want to destroy Earth and escape from it, actually managing to escape, only to find themselves immediately entered into a deadly situation with a superior intelligence (which is easily done in Musks case!) that no amount of cunning Marketing strategies can help them deal with! Take note Bezos, that is a 24hour delivery I _will_ buy!
@@saccorhytus how do you come to this conclusion? It only would make sense if all started at exactly the same time. But as far as we know alien species could have a several million or even billion years head start. And then our fast evolution would mean nothing on a galactic scale. The whole timeline of (intelligent) Mankind is a single drop of water in an ocean compared to the age of the universe. We are nothing. Alien species could have nuclear energy when we still draw animals into a wall with a stone. That humans are the peak of all species is such a ridiculous thought.
@@ayrtonellul there are clearly still moral species though. It's hard to become so technologically advanced and organized without some form of morality.
@@Junksaint There’s a difference between individual morality and group morality though. Easiest example is how an individual person acts vs how a state acts. A civilization can still be moral and still wipe out another civilization if it ensures the survival of itself.
I loved these books, and can only think that Stephen Hawking was ahead of his time (as per usual I guess), when he warned us all against advertising our presence to outer space. _Dark Forest Theory simply makes too much sense to deny._
... Oh boiii. If you somebody confuses two different concepts; Hawking pointed out the native americans as an example, the dark Forest Theory speaks about "Some Aliens just randomly nuke everything because why not." - Because behind all those fancy words in the Books, its basically the reasoning of things which most likely wouldn't ever be able to achieve the technologies described in the Books. In the Books itself the whole stuff has a "not so great ending" for everybody involved. The issue with ET finding earth right now wouldn't be that they "simply annihilate Earth in one shot" because "theoretically, if they would stagnate in their technological development - which would doom especially 'One Planet Societies' anyways directly - that some Monkies from Earth could become maybe dangerous to them in 1000 years." - It's that they, if they would have the technology to actually reach us which would make them basically equal to Demi Gods to us, they could easily exploit us and we would be dumb founded like the Natives back in then who believed that the Gods send "us" to punish them, sold us their stuff for some bottle of booze, thought that the clothes we gave them were a kind gesture and only realized when they were already in reservations that the new system heavily disfavours them. What makes actually sense is the reality that a Species which could travel faster than light - which they would need to even interact with other Solar Systems - would be so far ahead of our Species & Society, that we would automatically take the place of Pets for them. And that gap would take centuries if not thousand of years to get somewhat narrower and that only if the other guys are already at a point which will cause their self destruction; stalemate of socially and technological developments. Hawking simply pointed out that we would be like Apes for a Species which could physically reach us. The dark forest Theory originates in a Book at a point in a story in which Species don't really have FTL and every species suddenly starts total wars which end in the destruction of whole dimensions because "Why not.".
Read these books couple years back and the books have left a big impression... Wouldn't be a few days go past without thinking of the concepts in them and that's the mark of great sci fi... Once again another great video from you
Only problem is it seems (based on the two 'tv shows' that the alien's are stupid enough to reveal themselves by attacking. If you fear death from more advanced civilizations, YOU HIDE you do not act against lesser civilizations unless you are 100% certain your methods cannot draw attention or lead others back to you.
Even if aliens receive this information, they cannot determine the position of Earth because there are tens of millions of stars in this direction, and you cannot worry about the safety of Earth because of this
Of course, there's nothing good in contacting them..even Hawking said so.. Fermi paradox ask why no aliens contact us? Because their planets were obliterated and they flee across universe...maybe those ufos in our sky were the remains of their race..
Great video. Your review completely takes me back to what I loved about this series. Great emphasis on Fermi Paradox...this book, I beleive will impact how many think about the universe. Our place in it, and our desires for a first contact.
I must admit I really noticed the difference between this volume and the two translated by Ken Liu. This volume read more as a thriller, perhaps more space opera, whereas the other two had greater gravitas and, for me, satisfaction. Just my taste and each to their own. Still, a terrific trilogy, all books very worth reading.
The Fermi paradox is resolved in three ways. 1. We are , astoundingly the first species on track to becoming a spacefaring species. Not likely. 2. The dark Forrest proposal. And we, humanity are eventually screwed. 3. An immensely powerful class 5 or greater being or species is protecting us from all the other predators for some reason. That third option sounds pretty good to Me. Now imagine that a single species achieves class 5 and can manage to survive the collapse of the universe ( the big bounce) . Then for quite some time that species or likely that single being is entirely and utterly alone outside of matter and time. That being would eventually desire fellowship from a like intelligence in all the crushing nothingness. What would such a powerful intelligence do? Create a copy of itself ? But that has a risk associated with it. What if you created a rival? So, you could create a copy through the same process that developed you and carefully guide that species both physically and psychologically to be your ethical and spiritual match while being always well behind your own status of power. And, in order to do this you would have to protect your foster child species from predators. Now, if we are being protected by such a Cosmic intelligence we are truly blessed indeed. And, we are.
God as a lonely alien? I mean it’s possible. The only way the concept of gods would make sense to me. But then why were most cultures polytheistic? Were there multiple lonely aliens in this creation project, with some either dying or being killed by the now surviving alien? Might explain why most polytheistic cultures presented their deities as being in constant conflict with each other.
If the odds of a planet being life supporting was 1:100 and the universe had 100 planets would we be wondering where everyone was? If it is 1:1000 in a universe of 1000? The simple fact is that the evidence says there is no paradox at all, that life really is incredibly rare and inevitably it had to appear somewhere and it would be unique in a universe of finite worlds.
I mean for me it was a 5/5 book, absolutely shattered the first one on every level. I'm curious to know how you would compare the two so far or are you waiting to read the third to compare?
I like to think that if the Dark Forest Theory is wrong then aliens will read about it and immediately think that humans are seriously f-ed up for coming up with it as an explanation.
@@charlesajones77 or they know we are born for warfare and can only ever be cohesive with an existential threat. The logical conclusion being to leave well alone to our own self imposed demise.
It's somewhat ironic that if the Trisolarans had just left Luo Ji alone, he probably would never have been a threat. He certainly would never have been a Wallfacer.
I think chain of suspicion and dark forest theory make sense, but I don't see how that can be a solution to Fermi's paradox. If the universe is full of civilizations, you can't expect all of them to realize the danger of revealing their own existence, and even if they do, you can't expect all members from those civilizations to be perfectly rational and logical. As a result, the universe should still be full of radio waves sent from alien governments that are too naive (like us), curious scientists, antisocial psychopaths who want the destruction of their own civilization, or just simply by accident. Even if the chance of each of these events are rare, but when you multiply it by a huge base number, given the size of the universe and number of stars in the galaxy, it's still a huge number.
Yes, but the amount of radio waves would be small if these naive civilizations are eliminated shortly after. We're just sending signals for a blink of the eye..
Regular radio signals decay very quickly and universe is large. Human civilisation nor alien civilisation of similar technology to us can't make any meaningful signal that can reach even our nearest star.
There was a book in the 1970s called Habitable Planets For Man, which solved the Drake Equation for what we now know were drastically optimistic assumptions, and it came up with at least 1000 light years between civilizations. Also, our radio waves become indistinguishable from noise within 30 light years. The Golden Disks that NASA sent out will not reach anywhere for millions of years, or more time than simians have been around. Translation: We are safe from our own emissions and the disks will be picked up by ourselves more likely than anyone else.
"You can't expect..." But you don't need to expect those things for dark forest to work. Dark forest relies on just enough suspicion among the universe. And the result is the survival of those who hide themselves. If there's intelligent life that didn't believe in dark forest they would be wiped out If there is an irrational being among the intelligent species that broadcasted to the universe, that species would also be wiped out. You make the assumption that intelligent extraterrestrial life is similar to humans, in that we are irrational, ruled by emotions, we have psychopaths and wars and a lot of internal conflict amongst our own species but that assumption is very biased.
Good, clear, logical exposition of perhaps the most frightening idea science fiction has ever come up with. Universal paranoia. Hoping this is a human projection, but I've not come across a convincing counterarguement, so far... not losing any sleep over it however. Enjoyed the books.
@@heloisx1015 It goes back at least to the 1960's with a variation known as the Berserker Hypothesis, but other versions have been talked about since. It was typically known as the Vicious Jungle Theory.
Man, these books sound really good. I have them on my list now. Thanks for the videos about them. It reminds me of a book (maybe series) that I have been trying to re-find for a few years now. Sort of a Dark Forest theory except a few hunters partner up and say find us to ask to join the gang. Silly me, I can not remember author or title, only the revealed plot. I say revealed plot, because if I remember correctly the back cover synopsis did not call out the underlying actual plot. And the plot very simplified is this: A highly advanced civilization contacts earth and says, We are thousands of light years away from you, and our technology makes yours laughable. In a thousand years we are going to be in your area and will enslave you. The only way to avoid this, is for you guys to prove your worthiness by coming to visit us at these coordinates, and ask to join our group of civilizations, BEFORE we get to your area. I can't remember if its two books or a single book with a Part 1 and Part 2. But essentially, Part 1 is our protagonist(s) trying to convince a reluctant present day earth to stop the quibbling amongst countries and instead, pool resources to research, develop and build a spacecraft capable of reaching the contactors before they get here. Easier said than done, to convince the earth to make sacrifices now, for an event that only affects 100s of generations in the future. Part 2 is the trip and confrontation with the aliens. I am hoping you or your viewers might recognize this plot and help me re-find the novel(s) that tells this story. I have asked about it on the Reddit with no luck there, so desperately trying here.
After the "Grand Central Arena" Series by Ryk E. Spoor got me back into Sci-Fi, Liu Cixin's Remembrance series really ignited my passion for it. As a Sociologist and hobby astrophysics dweller, diving deeper into cosmic sociology and its' impact on human society was perfect for me. I routinely zoned out to contemplate and appreciate this series. Implications for the individual scale right up to the identity of a civilisation as a whole (you could almost call it pre-Culture-esque).
I agree, confuses me too, compared to the dark forest theory , far better to be alone , if we progress , we can go into space , expand , without any fear of annihilation.
This puts Revelation Space in perspective. The difficulty in communication is a good point. In ancient Mediterranean history there were cases of Royal autocrats starting wars because their feelings were hurt by a single sentence in a missive from the neighbouring kingdom's ruler. The two societies were not in conflict but through miscommunication the worst happened.
There is a way out of the escalating trail of suspicion. The "do on to others" model of interstellar relations. There was a game theory contest that pitted opposing AI's against each other in a competition of Nuke or not Nuke where the AI had to choose to preemptive strike with nukes or not to against its opponent. If it launched its nukes and its opponent did not, than it won. If both AI's launched their Nukes neither won; and if neither launched, both won. Each AI was given 1 point for winning, and 0 points for losing and they each played against each other in a round robin. The AI that won had only 3 instructions: 1, do not Nuke in round 1. 2, in all subsequent rounds, do what was done to you in the prior round. 3, repeat step 2 until turned off.
The only problem I have with this is this. A species advanced enough to travel between stars to wage war on others... is advanced enough to make their own free floating habitats, if they need to expand. They are advanced enough to pick up whatever resources they need from whatever is orbiting around any star. All they needed was a single star system so the orbits are stable. There's no need to go to another star system to a specific planet that suits them.
That has nothing to do with if a species has enough resources. Chain of suspicion, if the species detects another species while being perfectly content with their own civilization, they still need to suspect that the newly discovered species might come over to conquer them, so they need to attack.
Knowing you're an Alastair Reynolds fan, I expected you to mention Revelation Space as an earlier attempt to solve Fermi's Paradox (2000 for RS, 2008 -- in China -- for TTBP). Liu's solution is much more theoretically complex, to be sure. And Reynolds sort of loses track of what the Inhibitors want as the books go on. Still, I give Reynolds props for offering an earlier, serious stab at the Paradox. How about a follow-up video comparing different solutions in SF? The Expanse offers another, I think. And I'm sure there are others you know about.
It’s not unclear what the inhibitors wanted. They were not allowing civs to develop to the point of interstellar travel to limit catastrophe when andromeda collides with the Milky Way. Or did you miss that bit 😂
The Dark Forest theory goes back at least as far as David Brin's 1983 discussion of the Fermi Paradox (Wikipedia), though I would have thought it was older still. It's appeared in various SF throughout the years, and considered a derivation of the analogous theory named after Fred Saberhagen's Berserker series (1963-2005) in which Von Neumann probes seek out and destroy intelligent life (Wikipedia). Babylon 5 based an episode on this, in which an armed probe arrives and promises great knowledge if they can answer a complex question, and destruction if they get it wrong. The crew eventually twig that it is the correct answer that will doom them.
I just believe life is everywhere or at least more common than we may suspect. However sapience and sentience is not, and of those that exist, actual human intelligence or better is extremely rare, and seeing how we are doing exiting the solar system, finding them will be exceedingly difficult, let alone communicating with them, not to mention meeting face to face. Imagine there are 3 to 5 civilisations per galaxy at any one time. How will we find them? In other galaxies even?
The amount of matter that is within our light year distance possibility has shrunken ever since the beginning of the universe as certain systems move too far away to possibly be reached
I find it very intriguing how the aliens in The 3 body problem don't understand the concept of lying and once they do they realise they can no longer trust humanity. It's a concept completely alien to them but something we rarely think about, it's just natural and just through a completely innocent interaction it changes everything. It shows just how delicate communication would be with other civilisations, even if we could speak to them in a common language there are concepts that we might not be able to translate even with words and visa versa.
@@BeczaBot dude thanks for that your comment made me think of aliens again and brought me back hear. I won’t sleep tonight probably. Please no more comments.
It would help to be clear on terms I think. It doesn't seem like we can call this a theory if it's not testable. It's sort of educated speculation. I'm really trying to sort this out I mean if we're being scientific I wanna know if you really mean to call this theory and on what basis tell me or tell me what I'm missing or both
A 200 year journey poses a serious problem in that as the generations come and go the original purpose for the mission becomes lost and the offspring are no longer motivated to fulfill the goals of their ancestors.
that's why you gotta put the crew into cryosleep, so it's the same people with the same goals. They're on ships with extremely limited resources, so you can't progress scientifically on the ship there.
Have you read or heard of the Killing Star? I enjoyed it, got to the point much quicker than Three Body series. Quite enjoyed it, like a series of short stories based on earths annihilation and the aftermath. Clones of Jesus and Buddha work out what to do next
I feel like overall most civilizations would conduct business before they kill for resources and its seen over our history too most times civilizations met there wasn't war and war broke out later on in an effort to get resources
I thought about this and came up with an exception when a civilization becomes so advanced and in control of technology and science that they can in fact guarantee their own survival and dominance of their inhabited region of space - basically having gained access to unlimited resources etc. At this stage, engaging in safe, open friendly seeking of contact with other intelligent life in the universe would be theoretically possible, as it could not pose any threat whatsoever.
There might always be much more advanced civilizations.. Even if you think you are advanced, it can never be a guarantee. Another civilization might just destroy your star / our sun and it's over
@@patmay23 naivety and arrogant ignorance seen in our society, even among scholars and intellectuals, will have long been fully transcended in this situation. It simply won't be possible to make such a silly mistake of poor judgement. Either they're aware of their limited power, or they're aware of their absolute power. If the universe is by nature limited and finite, which it is ('infinite' multiverses included within the finite scope; real infinity/eternity being of a categorically different nature), then, if they're aware of their absolute power based on fully understanding and dominating the nature of the universe(s), then there theoretically CAN be such a thing as "no more advanced", and this CAN be known for certain. Their safety CAN be assured, theoretically. This is the situation I'm proposing.
Imagine your entire existence is living inside a raindrop, from when it forms in a storm cloud, until its eventual annihilation as it hits the ground. You can see an ocean of raindrops all around you, you can build technology to see even further, beyond the raindrops, into open, empty, rainless air. Now imagine trying to find another intelligent life, living in a raindrop, but they're traveling towards the planet, in a raindrop, on the other side of the planet, 10 million years after you've hit the ground. Good luck.
My issue with the book series is that it undermines its own conclusion in the first book via the existence of sophons. In the books, the sophons are entangled with copies of themselves several light-years away and therefore exchange information instantly, and they are also capable of spying on and halting technological progress on Earth. Putting aside that this violates the no-communication theorum, sophons solve the chain of suspicion. Instant communication to resolve suspicion is possible, and Earth could be kept from becoming a threat, or at least observed safely, via the sophons. Additionally, we know that the Earth is hardly unique in the universe as far as habitable planets go. Thus, there was never any reason for the conflict in the first place.
I think we got really lucky as a species. Our solar system is in the habitable zone of the galaxy. The planet is in the habitable zone of our solar system. The moon stabilizes our planet, which gives us predictable seasons. We also have the molten core that gives us our magnetic shield against solar radiation as well as cosmic.
Various factions are here for a long time. A biosphere is a natural meeting point in an uniform cosmos. We ve seen two battles between alien vessels. Some of the ship types have been reported battling in 1561 and 1566. We are subject to galactic policies and politics and regulations and restrictions. One rule seems to not mess with evolution, another rule is to not mess with someone’s property…
I was thinking about the Dark Forest theory and the following thought came to mind: if there was a advanced civilization out there that was now 'keeping silent', would they not only have decided to do this at a later stage in their development? Like Earth has been sending radio, tv and all kinds of signals into outer space for 100+ years now, my point is would any advanced Aliens not have been doing similar before they decided to keep silent when they realized the danger?
Our radio waves haven't traveled very far considering the basically infinite size of the universe so maybe either we got lucky or it could be the Star Trek theory that very advanced Civilizations are aware of us but won't reveal themselves until we're advanced enough for lightspeed travel. Well those are the happy ending disney theories other ones are a lot darker. The three body problem theorizes that there are numerous civilizations out there all hiding from each other because they dont know each others intentions. Either way space is pretty damn scary.
We communicate through radio, which moves at the speed of light. We have been using radio for about 100 years. Assuming 50 years in each direction (50 for our transmission, 50 for the answer), there are only 133 stars within that distance. That's not that many. As for visits, the distances make it impractical. If it takes tens millenia to reach Earth, would it make sense to go here unless you are really sure that it is really, really worth it. Anyone able to do that would probably not consider us interesting. It would be like spending all of human history simply to observe an anthill.
Was it explained in the book my confusion about this : If sophons can’t penetrate our minds, how did they make all the scientist see a countdown? They must have been doing something…
As a rusty mathematician I was looking forward to hearing about the three body problem. I guess I must have missed it, I wasn't paying enough attention! It was a SF story that nudged me towards studying mathematics seriously. That was the short story, "The Four Colour Problem". I can't remember the author. When the problem was at last solved, I was disappointed because it was an unsatisfactory solution for a mathematician, I would say. It was not a nice closed proof like that of Pythagorus Theorem or the proof that the square root of 2 is irrational. Instead it involved long runs of computer programs to eliminate various alternative possibilities.
I tend to believe that we liv win a 3 dimension perception boundary and other civilizations are progressing in a realm of 4 or more dimensions. Also that this is not the only Universe and maybe we were left here because this universe had the most adverse circumstance to thrive and other civilizations have found the way to navigate to the there universes.
Fermi paradox is a factor of its time at the time it seemed an increasingly advanced civilization would continue to be louder and louder in its transmissions. Instead new tech takes over more efficient and less noisey. TV broadcasts replaced by broadband etc and that's before you start looking at any future radical tech that replaces em radiation as means of info transfer. Plus the fact that a sufficiently advanced civilisation can find practically limitless resources in their own solar system negates the boundary pushing empire building that would result in them coming to us.
I think the universe is huge enough for civilizations to not make all that much landgrabbing. I guess the Trisolarans would be a special case but I don't imagine a species developing on a planet in which they cannot thrive in the first place as happening very often.
What breaks this theory is if a civilization attacks another it will show their location in the space making it doomed too, and if 2 or more civilizations make an aliance this makes hostile civilizations doomed on their core because even if one hostile civilization attacks them their location will be revealed so the alliance will attack this hostile civilization, I think the game is much more complex than we think that even attacking other civilization is risky. Ok their weapon could be in another place of the galaxy or universe, but so it's other civilization's weapons and you can't predict if there is an alliance or not, it's a matter of time and search to find them, attacking is risky as not attacking. /EDIT Breaking I mean make it more complex, I don't think Earth is doomed or something because we already showed ourselves to the universe, if a civilization attacks us it's putting their own survival on the table.
Ive saw so many vides regarding these books and the hype around them. I still find that the books as much as they think they are "showing a new perspective" all the stories in this ebooks are hinged in a Human perspective and values. Even the dichotomy of "Kill or get kill" that dominates the universe is an intrinsically Human perspective and value with not hinge on an Alien point of view. This is the supreme human weakness that we cannot se beyond ourselves and maybe that is why Aliens have not contact us. They will realize that we are completely not a threat because our severe limitations. Resources like the ones on earth or on our solar system exists vastly in the universe so there is no need to fight for them either. We dont see anyone beacuse we are left on our own.
Your pronunciation of the author is the only one which is correct 😂 I have read all three books in Chinese three times in order just to understand the science part.
Attacking assumes you get them all. If they have the ability to attack you they have the ability to spread out and ensure retaliation in the case of your attack. The only prudent solution is to assume MAD.
What “The Dark Forest” hypothesis does fail to cover in its argument - is that if we are to assume human characteristics such as “the survival instinct” for alien races, then we must also assume the aliens have human traits like warmongering and conquest. So its possible no race ever gets very far into its nuclear age without eventually destroying themselves far sooner than galaxy spanning travel technology is achieved. Maybe there have been tens of thousands of civilisations but they all destroyed themselves in nuclear conflict. Even if there are survivors of nuclear war - they again go through the centuries of technological progress to repeat the cycle of war all over again; because the inbuilt trait of conflict within organisms is as strong as the survival instinct.
I can't believe that every civilization had come to the same conclusion.... That makes no sense. But definition they would all think differently. This is not the answer to the question.
We are human, we have short life span and hyper intelligence, this gives us ambition, we have to overcome problems and solutions,in short time, and we will spread into cosmos like locust ravaging the farm
I never understood why we humans place so much importance on the continuity of our species' existence. The Trisolarans would have taken 400 years to reach Earth, and yet the people living in the early 21st century panicked even though none of them would have lived to see the day. Why is getting wiped out so terrifying when we don't live forever in the first place. We'll all die anyway, and the survival of our species won't have any bearing on our individual fates.
Very interesting book series so far...just started reading The Three Body Problem. I will say that, although it makes for wonderful storytelling, the Chain of Suspicion presumption is unnecessary and impractical outside of sci-fi. The so-called benevolent species would HAVE to be assumed to be playing possum - at best, the human space-faring civ would make it a vassal colony and at worst, destroy it altogether. Look, for example, at what the Caucasians did to the Native 'Indians'; the latter fed them and taught them how to hunt and keep warm (The Jamestown Colony) and later, the Caucasians massacred them. No alien race would take the chance at the appearance of "benevolence" if they had any inkling of human history; neither would humans be expected to act in such a fashion - it would be a total departure from the human paradigm.
There is one further strand to this argument that makes it pretty irrefutable for me. I do not remember if the book brought this out explicitly or if it just occurred to me whilst reading it. My theory is that science is about building a model of the universe in the material of our brains, which, for us, is mathematics. Contrary to common opinion, I expect alien scientists to have quite different mathematics, because their brains have evolved differently, but their science will converge because it is a model of the same universe. It's like two models of a Spitfire, one made of balsa wood, the other of polystyrene: they are both recognizably the same aircraft, but they have different limitations because of the material they are made from (and maybe the scale). This means that every species' understanding of the universe, and therefore their technological potential, will plateau at a radically different level depending on accident of brain evolution. If we then assume that the typical journey from detectability (invention of radio) to plateau is very fast (a singularity), most species capable of detecting others will have already plateaued and most species will be first detected during their singularity. The detecting species has to fear that, in a single message round trip, the technological capability of the detected species will have shot past their own.
The Dark Forest hypothesis is extremely negative. It's trying to base what an alien race might do based on human ideas. It doesn't make any logical sense. If anything at all it shows how dangerous humanity is and how much of a threat it poses to the rest of the universe.
The Dark Forest theory is ultimately based on the preconception that advanced alien civilizations would take the shape of a modern, human, scarcity society but with more technology. It's the same kind of thought process that led some people in the 70's to predict that by the 2000's, computers would be the size of city blocks, yet here I am in 2024, in a bathroom stall, holding the knowledge of ages in the palm of my hand. The fermi paradox is similarly flawed. Imagine a Sioux wondering that, if there are civilizations in other lands beyond the ocean, how come ha can't see any smoke signals in the horizon.
This series of books is fascinating to me since when I read it, I enjoyed it, and then I gradually started disliking after I finished. Thinking about it now, it stays with me as an incredibly mean-spirited book. Sometimes you can feel the author trying not to jump out of the page to insult you directly.
Cixin Liu's conclusion happens to be by chance close to that of the real solution to the Fermi paradox, but the reasoning he employs to get there is entirely off. His mistake is located at the roots of his argumentation, the axioms.
The Dark Forest is one of the scariest concepts in sci fi to me. The idea there are all these civilizations out there, but they’re all terrified to reveal themselves and hide as best they can.
this is the smartest move tbh...we know the universe has been around much longer than our civilisation has developed. there's no way we can win if we're invaded
Peter Watts Chinese room aliens are a pretty scary extension of dark forest where they think we attacked them.
@@endor8witch Probably the smartest move, but also futile. Aggressive civilizations with the technology would periodically survey star systems and eventually find us anyway.
@@WitoldPilecki551 That is assuming they have access to the resources needed to conduct interstellar survey plus the universe is huge. The best they can hope for is stumble upon a civilization. rather than pinpoint their location. Earth was dumb enough to sent voyagers and transmit radio wave and detonate nuclear bomb in space and if anyone was watching at our general direction, we are fucked.
Why are y'all under the impression that aliens haven't contacted us or never visited. Don't be so closed minded. There's tons of proof that they've already been here. My questions is, why keep it a secret.
This is what i imagine when i think about life out there in the universe, and why we haven't found anything yet. In my opinion we should let go of the idea of openly screaming out our location to the universe, we have no idea what lurks in the dark, and whenever i hear someone say they want to "meet" the aliens all i can think of is how foolish and dangerous such an idea is. We have to keep quiet and put our house in order, lest we attract the attention of our own doom.
On a darkly positive note, I find it strangely heartwarming to ponder the notion of the Bezos, Branson and Musk types who seem to want to destroy Earth and escape from it, actually managing to escape, only to find themselves immediately entered into a deadly situation with a superior intelligence (which is easily done in Musks case!) that no amount of cunning Marketing strategies can help them deal with!
Take note Bezos, that is a 24hour delivery I _will_ buy!
Before I read the 3 books I would have completely disagreed with you but now that I have read the books I have done a complete 180
@@saccorhytus how do you come to this conclusion?
It only would make sense if all started at exactly the same time.
But as far as we know alien species could have a several million or even billion years head start. And then our fast evolution would mean nothing on a galactic scale.
The whole timeline of (intelligent) Mankind is a single drop of water in an ocean compared to the age of the universe. We are nothing.
Alien species could have nuclear energy when we still draw animals into a wall with a stone.
That humans are the peak of all species is such a ridiculous thought.
@@ayrtonellul there are clearly still moral species though. It's hard to become so technologically advanced and organized without some form of morality.
@@Junksaint There’s a difference between individual morality and group morality though. Easiest example is how an individual person acts vs how a state acts. A civilization can still be moral and still wipe out another civilization if it ensures the survival of itself.
I loved these books, and can only think that Stephen Hawking was ahead of his time (as per usual I guess), when he warned us all against advertising our presence to outer space.
_Dark Forest Theory simply makes too much sense to deny._
Me too. It’s such a compelling- and terrifying- theory but one worth remembering! 👽👾🛸
@@Sci-FiOdyssey Absolutely old chap, and thanks for the upload.
I still think of the gold record we sent into space years ago..... Here we are boys (or aliens lol)
@@warrenford ...Genitals on full display as well, haha!
... Oh boiii. If you somebody confuses two different concepts; Hawking pointed out the native americans as an example, the dark Forest Theory speaks about "Some Aliens just randomly nuke everything because why not." - Because behind all those fancy words in the Books, its basically the reasoning of things which most likely wouldn't ever be able to achieve the technologies described in the Books.
In the Books itself the whole stuff has a "not so great ending" for everybody involved.
The issue with ET finding earth right now wouldn't be that they "simply annihilate Earth in one shot" because "theoretically, if they would stagnate in their technological development - which would doom especially 'One Planet Societies' anyways directly - that some Monkies from Earth could become maybe dangerous to them in 1000 years." - It's that they, if they would have the technology to actually reach us which would make them basically equal to Demi Gods to us, they could easily exploit us and we would be dumb founded like the Natives back in then who believed that the Gods send "us" to punish them, sold us their stuff for some bottle of booze, thought that the clothes we gave them were a kind gesture and only realized when they were already in reservations that the new system heavily disfavours them.
What makes actually sense is the reality that a Species which could travel faster than light - which they would need to even interact with other Solar Systems - would be so far ahead of our Species & Society, that we would automatically take the place of Pets for them. And that gap would take centuries if not thousand of years to get somewhat narrower and that only if the other guys are already at a point which will cause their self destruction; stalemate of socially and technological developments.
Hawking simply pointed out that we would be like Apes for a Species which could physically reach us.
The dark forest Theory originates in a Book at a point in a story in which Species don't really have FTL and every species suddenly starts total wars which end in the destruction of whole dimensions because "Why not.".
Read these books couple years back and the books have left a big impression... Wouldn't be a few days go past without thinking of the concepts in them and that's the mark of great sci fi... Once again another great video from you
The mathematical ideas, especially in book 3, drives me bananas, in a good way!
Only problem is it seems (based on the two 'tv shows' that the alien's are stupid enough to reveal themselves by attacking. If you fear death from more advanced civilizations, YOU HIDE you do not act against lesser civilizations unless you are 100% certain your methods cannot draw attention or lead others back to you.
With the Dark Forest theory in mind, the Voyager Golden Records suddenly doesn't seem like such a good idea, right?
Even if aliens receive this information, they cannot determine the position of Earth because there are tens of millions of stars in this direction, and you cannot worry about the safety of Earth because of this
@@得不到的你there is literally a map on golden record, showing the location of a Sun between several pulsars
Bad idea :(
@@Demontego Human beings are going extinct😭
Of course, there's nothing good in contacting them..even Hawking said so..
Fermi paradox ask why no aliens contact us? Because their planets were obliterated and they flee across universe...maybe those ufos in our sky were the remains of their race..
@@得不到的你😂😂😂
Great video. Your review completely takes me back to what I loved about this series. Great emphasis on Fermi Paradox...this book, I beleive will impact how many think about the universe. Our place in it, and our desires for a first contact.
Agreed. I think it’s a truly original take on a first contact scenario.
@@Sci-FiOdyssey Three body TV episodes by Tencent is on RUclips now, with Eng sub. Very royal to the book.
I must admit I really noticed the difference between this volume and the two translated by Ken Liu. This volume read more as a thriller, perhaps more space opera, whereas the other two had greater gravitas and, for me, satisfaction. Just my taste and each to their own. Still, a terrific trilogy, all books very worth reading.
The Fermi paradox is resolved in three ways.
1. We are , astoundingly the first species on track to becoming a spacefaring species. Not likely.
2. The dark Forrest proposal. And we, humanity are eventually screwed.
3. An immensely powerful class 5 or greater being or species is protecting us from all the other predators for some reason.
That third option sounds pretty good to
Me.
Now imagine that a single species achieves class 5 and can manage to survive the collapse of the universe ( the big bounce) . Then for quite some time that species or likely that single being is entirely and utterly alone outside of matter and time. That being would eventually desire fellowship from a like intelligence in all the crushing nothingness. What would such a powerful intelligence do? Create a copy of itself ? But that has a risk associated with it. What if you created a rival? So, you could create a copy through the same process that developed you and carefully guide that species both physically and psychologically to be your ethical and spiritual match while being always well behind your own status of power. And, in order to do this you would have to protect your foster child species from predators.
Now, if we are being protected by such a Cosmic intelligence we are truly blessed indeed. And, we are.
God as a lonely alien? I mean it’s possible. The only way the concept of gods would make sense to me. But then why were most cultures polytheistic? Were there multiple lonely aliens in this creation project, with some either dying or being killed by the now surviving alien? Might explain why most polytheistic cultures presented their deities as being in constant conflict with each other.
Those are the 3 popular solutions but there are many more
Listen to the album, "To Our Children's Children's Children" by the Moody Blues.
Its possible that the speed of light is as fast as it is possible to travel. Nobody could have gotten here since weve become atomic
If the odds of a planet being life supporting was 1:100 and the universe had 100 planets would we be wondering where everyone was? If it is 1:1000 in a universe of 1000? The simple fact is that the evidence says there is no paradox at all, that life really is incredibly rare and inevitably it had to appear somewhere and it would be unique in a universe of finite worlds.
Impressive summary, Darrel. Concise. Clear. Persuasive. Thank you.
Oye Gato, tu sí estás muy viejo joder 😉
Thank you, Darrel.
Now that's what I call content you can sink your teeth into.
My copy of The Dark Forest just arrived..
Niiice...and just wait til u get to the one after that...mind blowing
This series legit scared me for a long time.
I mean for me it was a 5/5 book, absolutely shattered the first one on every level. I'm curious to know how you would compare the two so far or are you waiting to read the third to compare?
It's the best video I watched on TY elaborating on the dark forest, and the speed of speech is easy to catch up
I like to think that if the Dark Forest Theory is wrong then aliens will read about it and immediately think that humans are seriously f-ed up for coming up with it as an explanation.
And that could very well lead them to think that we are a threat that should be destroyed, before we destroy any of them. A self-fullfilling prophecy.
@@charlesajones77 or they know we are born for warfare and can only ever be cohesive with an existential threat. The logical conclusion being to leave well alone to our own self imposed demise.
@@charlesajones77 Even if they think we are good it doesn't matter! we need one hostile civilization to destroy us!
It's somewhat ironic that if the Trisolarans had just left Luo Ji alone, he probably would never have been a threat. He certainly would never have been a Wallfacer.
Yep, but that was at a time where trisolarans did not understand humanity and strategic planning during times of war etc
I was completely blown away by the series. So existentially dark.
I think chain of suspicion and dark forest theory make sense, but I don't see how that can be a solution to Fermi's paradox. If the universe is full of civilizations, you can't expect all of them to realize the danger of revealing their own existence, and even if they do, you can't expect all members from those civilizations to be perfectly rational and logical. As a result, the universe should still be full of radio waves sent from alien governments that are too naive (like us), curious scientists, antisocial psychopaths who want the destruction of their own civilization, or just simply by accident. Even if the chance of each of these events are rare, but when you multiply it by a huge base number, given the size of the universe and number of stars in the galaxy, it's still a huge number.
Yes, but the amount of radio waves would be small if these naive civilizations are eliminated shortly after. We're just sending signals for a blink of the eye..
Regular radio signals decay very quickly and universe is large. Human civilisation nor alien civilisation of similar technology to us can't make any meaningful signal that can reach even our nearest star.
universe is vast, too vast and our time to look at the sky is short. we won't know the Bethlehem was a nature supernova or a "man-made" disaster.
There was a book in the 1970s called Habitable Planets For Man, which solved the Drake Equation for what we now know were drastically optimistic assumptions, and it came up with at least 1000 light years between civilizations. Also, our radio waves become indistinguishable from noise within 30 light years. The Golden Disks that NASA sent out will not reach anywhere for millions of years, or more time than simians have been around.
Translation: We are safe from our own emissions and the disks will be picked up by ourselves more likely than anyone else.
"You can't expect..." But you don't need to expect those things for dark forest to work. Dark forest relies on just enough suspicion among the universe. And the result is the survival of those who hide themselves. If there's intelligent life that didn't believe in dark forest they would be wiped out
If there is an irrational being among the intelligent species that broadcasted to the universe, that species would also be wiped out. You make the assumption that intelligent extraterrestrial life is similar to humans, in that we are irrational, ruled by emotions, we have psychopaths and wars and a lot of internal conflict amongst our own species but that assumption is very biased.
Awesome video!
Thanks!
Good, clear, logical exposition of perhaps the most frightening idea science fiction has ever come up with. Universal paranoia. Hoping this is a human projection, but I've not come across a convincing counterarguement, so far... not losing any sleep over it however. Enjoyed the books.
But then again, I'm only human.
No, you're just a bug
liu cixin was not the creator of the dark forest theory but he did use it in his work
Who is the creator?
was he not? Did he borrow the Chain of suspision?
@KermitOfWar that's the writer
@@heloisx1015 It goes back at least to the 1960's with a variation known as the Berserker Hypothesis, but other versions have been talked about since. It was typically known as the Vicious Jungle Theory.
Thank you for the cogent summary. I'd never heard of this Asian writer before.
Then you’re certainly in for a treat if you’re a fan of harder scifi! 😀
Man, these books sound really good. I have them on my list now. Thanks for the videos about them.
It reminds me of a book (maybe series) that I have been trying to re-find for a few years now. Sort of a Dark Forest theory except a few hunters partner up and say find us to ask to join the gang.
Silly me, I can not remember author or title, only the revealed plot. I say revealed plot, because if I remember correctly the back cover synopsis did not call out the underlying actual plot. And the plot very simplified is this: A highly advanced civilization contacts earth and says, We are thousands of light years away from you, and our technology makes yours laughable. In a thousand years we are going to be in your area and will enslave you. The only way to avoid this, is for you guys to prove your worthiness by coming to visit us at these coordinates, and ask to join our group of civilizations, BEFORE we get to your area.
I can't remember if its two books or a single book with a Part 1 and Part 2. But essentially, Part 1 is our protagonist(s) trying to convince a reluctant present day earth to stop the quibbling amongst countries and instead, pool resources to research, develop and build a spacecraft capable of reaching the contactors before they get here. Easier said than done, to convince the earth to make sacrifices now, for an event that only affects 100s of generations in the future. Part 2 is the trip and confrontation with the aliens.
I am hoping you or your viewers might recognize this plot and help me re-find the novel(s) that tells this story. I have asked about it on the Reddit with no luck there, so desperately trying here.
After the "Grand Central Arena" Series by Ryk E. Spoor got me back into Sci-Fi, Liu Cixin's Remembrance series really ignited my passion for it. As a Sociologist and hobby astrophysics dweller, diving deeper into cosmic sociology and its' impact on human society was perfect for me. I routinely zoned out to contemplate and appreciate this series. Implications for the individual scale right up to the identity of a civilisation as a whole (you could almost call it pre-Culture-esque).
Why is it terrifying to know that we are "alone" in the universe?
I agree, confuses me too, compared to the dark forest theory , far better to be alone , if we progress , we can go into space , expand , without any fear of annihilation.
DFT basically posits that we are not alone
@@glynarchie5765At least we know humanity has the CAPACITY for good.
Prob bcuz we carry more responsibility in case we're alone. Anything good can only come from us. And anything bad can only be stopped by us 😢
Because they are godless heathens.
This puts Revelation Space in perspective. The difficulty in communication is a good point. In ancient Mediterranean history there were cases of Royal autocrats starting wars because their feelings were hurt by a single sentence in a missive from the neighbouring kingdom's ruler. The two societies were not in conflict but through miscommunication the worst happened.
The series was tremendous, haven't gotten sucked into a series like that since the game of thrones.
Great video, excellent summary of these works.
Brilliant books, and the Tencent produced TV series follows the books very closely, terrific viewing.
Do what is right and things will work out for your best!
There is a way out of the escalating trail of suspicion. The "do on to others" model of interstellar relations. There was a game theory contest that pitted opposing AI's against each other in a competition of Nuke or not Nuke where the AI had to choose to preemptive strike with nukes or not to against its opponent. If it launched its nukes and its opponent did not, than it won. If both AI's launched their Nukes neither won; and if neither launched, both won.
Each AI was given 1 point for winning, and 0 points for losing and they each played against each other in a round robin. The AI that won had only 3 instructions: 1, do not Nuke in round 1. 2, in all subsequent rounds, do what was done to you in the prior round. 3, repeat step 2 until turned off.
In real life you might not get a repeat after losing the first game.
That doesn't involve the chain of suspicion though, or actual AIs.
This book was truly frightening…truly.
The only problem I have with this is this. A species advanced enough to travel between stars to wage war on others... is advanced enough to make their own free floating habitats, if they need to expand. They are advanced enough to pick up whatever resources they need from whatever is orbiting around any star. All they needed was a single star system so the orbits are stable. There's no need to go to another star system to a specific planet that suits them.
To build a spaceship they have to evolve beyond being savage
That has nothing to do with if a species has enough resources. Chain of suspicion, if the species detects another species while being perfectly content with their own civilization, they still need to suspect that the newly discovered species might come over to conquer them, so they need to attack.
Knowing you're an Alastair Reynolds fan, I expected you to mention Revelation Space as an earlier attempt to solve Fermi's Paradox (2000 for RS, 2008 -- in China -- for TTBP). Liu's solution is much more theoretically complex, to be sure. And Reynolds sort of loses track of what the Inhibitors want as the books go on. Still, I give Reynolds props for offering an earlier, serious stab at the Paradox. How about a follow-up video comparing different solutions in SF? The Expanse offers another, I think. And I'm sure there are others you know about.
Very good point. And great idea for a video 👍
The Expanse offers a solution to the Fermi Paradox? I must have missed that.
It’s not unclear what the inhibitors wanted. They were not allowing civs to develop to the point of interstellar travel to limit catastrophe when andromeda collides with the Milky Way. Or did you miss that bit 😂
Went down the 3BP rabbit hole and found you, thanks!
Thanks for the video. I have subscribed.
The Dark Forest theory goes back at least as far as David Brin's 1983 discussion of the Fermi Paradox (Wikipedia), though I would have thought it was older still. It's appeared in various SF throughout the years, and considered a derivation of the analogous theory named after Fred Saberhagen's Berserker series (1963-2005) in which Von Neumann probes seek out and destroy intelligent life (Wikipedia). Babylon 5 based an episode on this, in which an armed probe arrives and promises great knowledge if they can answer a complex question, and destruction if they get it wrong. The crew eventually twig that it is the correct answer that will doom them.
That's intriguing. What was the question and the correct answer?
@@IRosamelia I don't recall offhand - an advanced mathematical theorum I think.
@@greyareaRK1 I would really like to see that episode 🙂
@@IRosamelia It's in Season 3, A Day in the Strife.
@@greyareaRK1 Thanks, I will look it up
Funny how this explains the psychology of “Morning Light Mountain” in the book Pandora’s Star by Peter F. Hamilton.
Brilliant concept very well explained!
I liked the Alistair Reynolds solution to the Fermi paradox.
The Inhibitors
I just believe life is everywhere or at least more common than we may suspect.
However sapience and sentience is not, and of those that exist, actual human intelligence or better is extremely rare, and seeing how we are doing exiting the solar system, finding them will be exceedingly difficult, let alone communicating with them, not to mention meeting face to face.
Imagine there are 3 to 5 civilisations per galaxy at any one time. How will we find them? In other galaxies even?
Excellent review, thank you 😊
Great explanation
This series is so amazing.
The amount of matter that is within our light year distance possibility has shrunken ever since the beginning of the universe as certain systems move too far away to possibly be reached
I find it very intriguing how the aliens in The 3 body problem don't understand the concept of lying and once they do they realise they can no longer trust humanity. It's a concept completely alien to them but something we rarely think about, it's just natural and just through a completely innocent interaction it changes everything.
It shows just how delicate communication would be with other civilisations, even if we could speak to them in a common language there are concepts that we might not be able to translate even with words and visa versa.
I keep having a nightmare an alien scanning the universe looking for life to destroy and coming across a signal from earth. Scary
That's a recurring nightmare??? Scary!
@@BeczaBot dude thanks for that your comment made me think of aliens again and brought me back hear. I won’t sleep tonight probably. Please no more comments.
It would help to be clear on terms I think. It doesn't seem like we can call this a theory if it's not testable. It's sort of educated speculation. I'm really trying to sort this out I mean if we're being scientific I wanna know if you really mean to call this theory and on what basis tell me or tell me what I'm missing or both
A 200 year journey poses a serious problem in that as the generations come and go the original purpose for the mission becomes lost and the offspring are no longer motivated to fulfill the goals of their ancestors.
that's why you gotta put the crew into cryosleep, so it's the same people with the same goals. They're on ships with extremely limited resources, so you can't progress scientifically on the ship there.
Have you read or heard of the Killing Star? I enjoyed it, got to the point much quicker than Three Body series.
Quite enjoyed it, like a series of short stories based on earths annihilation and the aftermath.
Clones of Jesus and Buddha work out what to do next
I haven’t but thanks for the recommendation I’ll check it out! 👍
I feel like overall most civilizations would conduct business before they kill for resources and its seen over our history too most times civilizations met there wasn't war and war broke out later on in an effort to get resources
Needle in a haystack.
It's there but how can you find it?
I thought about this and came up with an exception when a civilization becomes so advanced and in control of technology and science that they can in fact guarantee their own survival and dominance of their inhabited region of space - basically having gained access to unlimited resources etc. At this stage, engaging in safe, open friendly seeking of contact with other intelligent life in the universe would be theoretically possible, as it could not pose any threat whatsoever.
There might always be much more advanced civilizations.. Even if you think you are advanced, it can never be a guarantee. Another civilization might just destroy your star / our sun and it's over
@@patmay23 naivety and arrogant ignorance seen in our society, even among scholars and intellectuals, will have long been fully transcended in this situation. It simply won't be possible to make such a silly mistake of poor judgement. Either they're aware of their limited power, or they're aware of their absolute power. If the universe is by nature limited and finite, which it is ('infinite' multiverses included within the finite scope; real infinity/eternity being of a categorically different nature), then, if they're aware of their absolute power based on fully understanding and dominating the nature of the universe(s), then there theoretically CAN be such a thing as "no more advanced", and this CAN be known for certain. Their safety CAN be assured, theoretically. This is the situation I'm proposing.
The dark forest theory was actually around before the book.
If you think peaceful thoughts this is a harder concept to get. If you think not peaceful thoughts, this makes perfect since.
Imagine your entire existence is living inside a raindrop, from when it forms in a storm cloud, until its eventual annihilation as it hits the ground. You can see an ocean of raindrops all around you, you can build technology to see even further, beyond the raindrops, into open, empty, rainless air.
Now imagine trying to find another intelligent life, living in a raindrop, but they're traveling towards the planet, in a raindrop, on the other side of the planet, 10 million years after you've hit the ground.
Good luck.
My issue with the book series is that it undermines its own conclusion in the first book via the existence of sophons.
In the books, the sophons are entangled with copies of themselves several light-years away and therefore exchange information instantly, and they are also capable of spying on and halting technological progress on Earth. Putting aside that this violates the no-communication theorum, sophons solve the chain of suspicion. Instant communication to resolve suspicion is possible, and Earth could be kept from becoming a threat, or at least observed safely, via the sophons. Additionally, we know that the Earth is hardly unique in the universe as far as habitable planets go.
Thus, there was never any reason for the conflict in the first place.
I think we got really lucky as a species. Our solar system is in the habitable zone of the galaxy. The planet is in the habitable zone of our solar system. The moon stabilizes our planet, which gives us predictable seasons. We also have the molten core that gives us our magnetic shield against solar radiation as well as cosmic.
Should i be watching this? I haven't finished 3body problem yet
Fascinating!
Various factions are here for a long time. A biosphere is a natural meeting point in an uniform cosmos. We ve seen two battles between alien vessels. Some of the ship types have been reported battling in 1561 and 1566. We are subject to galactic policies and politics and regulations and restrictions. One rule seems to not mess with evolution, another rule is to not mess with someone’s property…
Very interesting theory. Yes this is how us humans would behave. My question. Would other sentient alien life forms think the same way?
I was thinking about the Dark Forest theory and the following thought came to mind: if there was a advanced civilization out there that was now 'keeping silent', would they not only have decided to do this at a later stage in their development?
Like Earth has been sending radio, tv and all kinds of signals into outer space for 100+ years now, my point is would any advanced Aliens not have been doing similar before they decided to keep silent when they realized the danger?
Our radio waves haven't traveled very far considering the basically infinite size of the universe so maybe either we got lucky or it could be the Star Trek theory that very advanced Civilizations are aware of us but won't reveal themselves until we're advanced enough for lightspeed travel. Well those are the happy ending disney theories other ones are a lot darker. The three body problem theorizes that there are numerous civilizations out there all hiding from each other because they dont know each others intentions. Either way space is pretty damn scary.
We communicate through radio, which moves at the speed of light. We have been using radio for about 100 years. Assuming 50 years in each direction (50 for our transmission, 50 for the answer), there are only 133 stars within that distance. That's not that many.
As for visits, the distances make it impractical. If it takes tens millenia to reach Earth, would it make sense to go here unless you are really sure that it is really, really worth it. Anyone able to do that would probably not consider us interesting. It would be like spending all of human history simply to observe an anthill.
I thought radio waves travel at the speed of sound?
@@BeczaBot Nope, speed of light.
Was it explained in the book my confusion about this : If sophons can’t penetrate our minds, how did they make all the scientist see a countdown? They must have been doing something…
As a rusty mathematician I was looking forward to hearing about the three body problem. I guess I must have missed it, I wasn't paying enough attention! It was a SF story that nudged me towards studying mathematics seriously. That was the short story, "The Four Colour Problem". I can't remember the author. When the problem was at last solved, I was disappointed because it was an unsatisfactory solution for a mathematician, I would say. It was not a nice closed proof like that of Pythagorus Theorem or the proof that the square root of 2 is irrational. Instead it involved long runs of computer programs to eliminate various alternative possibilities.
Nice 👍
I would say his voice is nicer than his thumb, but to each their own 😜
Your collection of books is very similar to mine ! 😀
I real like the Dark Forest much better than the other 2 books in the series
Agree
Maybe the universe is so large to keep us all in our bubble, against a dark background
Dark Forest is simply Law of The Jungle
I tend to believe that we liv win a 3 dimension perception boundary and other civilizations are progressing in a realm of 4 or more dimensions. Also that this is not the only Universe and maybe we were left here because this universe had the most adverse circumstance to thrive and other civilizations have found the way to navigate to the there universes.
I'll check this book out
Great video
It's like the Aztec Empire (old tech) meeting the Spanish (new tech). Aztec civilization was wiped out in the end.
Fermi paradox is a factor of its time at the time it seemed an increasingly advanced civilization would continue to be louder and louder in its transmissions. Instead new tech takes over more efficient and less noisey. TV broadcasts replaced by broadband etc and that's before you start looking at any future radical tech that replaces em radiation as means of info transfer. Plus the fact that a sufficiently advanced civilisation can find practically limitless resources in their own solar system negates the boundary pushing empire building that would result in them coming to us.
None of these are in conflict with dark forest theory, though. They arguably support it.
I think the universe is huge enough for civilizations to not make all that much landgrabbing. I guess the Trisolarans would be a special case but I don't imagine a species developing on a planet in which they cannot thrive in the first place as happening very often.
I think Earth was the closest habitable planet anyway: Earth and Trisolaris are 4 light years away and they are each others' closest star systems?
What breaks this theory is if a civilization attacks another it will show their location in the space making it doomed too, and if 2 or more civilizations make an aliance this makes hostile civilizations doomed on their core because even if one hostile civilization attacks them their location will be revealed so the alliance will attack this hostile civilization, I think the game is much more complex than we think that even attacking other civilization is risky. Ok their weapon could be in another place of the galaxy or universe, but so it's other civilization's weapons and you can't predict if there is an alliance or not, it's a matter of time and search to find them, attacking is risky as not attacking.
/EDIT Breaking I mean make it more complex, I don't think Earth is doomed or something because we already showed ourselves to the universe, if a civilization attacks us it's putting their own survival on the table.
Ive saw so many vides regarding these books and the hype around them. I still find that the books as much as they think they are "showing a new perspective" all the stories in this ebooks are hinged in a Human perspective and values. Even the dichotomy of "Kill or get kill" that dominates the universe is an intrinsically Human perspective and value with not hinge on an Alien point of view. This is the supreme human weakness that we cannot se beyond ourselves and maybe that is why Aliens have not contact us. They will realize that we are completely not a threat because our severe limitations. Resources like the ones on earth or on our solar system exists vastly in the universe so there is no need to fight for them either. We dont see anyone beacuse we are left on our own.
I'm not trying to have our solar system starry-night-smeared into the 2nd dimension...
Every other species:
“I better keep my ass in this yard or I’m finished!”
Humans:
“HEY EVERYBODY, WE MAKING CIVILIZATION ENDING WEAPONS! COME SEE!!”
Your pronunciation of the author is the only one which is correct 😂
I have read all three books in Chinese three times in order just to understand the science part.
What if it's just us and we're the best the universes can do?
Maybe it's just us... for now. We are the beginning and there are others yet to come.
Game Theory on a cosmic scale: we're F.........d!
Attacking assumes you get them all. If they have the ability to attack you they have the ability to spread out and ensure retaliation in the case of your attack. The only prudent solution is to assume MAD.
What “The Dark Forest” hypothesis does fail to cover in its argument - is that if we are to assume human characteristics such as “the survival instinct” for alien races, then we must also assume the aliens have human traits like warmongering and conquest.
So its possible no race ever gets very far into its nuclear age without eventually destroying themselves far sooner than galaxy spanning travel technology is achieved.
Maybe there have been tens of thousands of civilisations but they all destroyed themselves in nuclear conflict.
Even if there are survivors of nuclear war - they again go through the centuries of technological progress to repeat the cycle of war all over again; because the inbuilt trait of conflict within organisms is as strong as the survival instinct.
This is the competition for resources, which helps fuel successful species.
@@BeczaBot Yes - to be successful, whether as individuals or nations you have to be at least a little on the aggressive side, and lucky and smart.
The great filter
There are at least two older novels based around the same hypothesis
I can't believe that every civilization had come to the same conclusion.... That makes no sense. But definition they would all think differently. This is not the answer to the question.
Correction 2:55 - c.200 years pass not 400.
These species need to start a Federation!
We are human, we have short life span and hyper intelligence, this gives us ambition, we have to overcome problems and solutions,in short time, and we will spread into cosmos like locust ravaging the farm
I never understood why we humans place so much importance on the continuity of our species' existence. The Trisolarans would have taken 400 years to reach Earth, and yet the people living in the early 21st century panicked even though none of them would have lived to see the day. Why is getting wiped out so terrifying when we don't live forever in the first place. We'll all die anyway, and the survival of our species won't have any bearing on our individual fates.
Very interesting book series so far...just started reading The Three Body Problem. I will say that, although it makes for wonderful storytelling, the Chain of Suspicion presumption is unnecessary and impractical outside of sci-fi. The so-called benevolent species would HAVE to be assumed to be playing possum - at best, the human space-faring civ would make it a vassal colony and at worst, destroy it altogether. Look, for example, at what the Caucasians did to the Native 'Indians'; the latter fed them and taught them how to hunt and keep warm (The Jamestown Colony) and later, the Caucasians massacred them. No alien race would take the chance at the appearance of "benevolence" if they had any inkling of human history; neither would humans be expected to act in such a fashion - it would be a total departure from the human paradigm.
Cixin Liu is a great author, looking forward to the Chinese adaptions of his work. Netflixs version I'll watch out of curiosity.
the TENCENT adaptation has been out for a few months already and available on YT
There is one further strand to this argument that makes it pretty irrefutable for me. I do not remember if the book brought this out explicitly or if it just occurred to me whilst reading it. My theory is that science is about building a model of the universe in the material of our brains, which, for us, is mathematics. Contrary to common opinion, I expect alien scientists to have quite different mathematics, because their brains have evolved differently, but their science will converge because it is a model of the same universe. It's like two models of a Spitfire, one made of balsa wood, the other of polystyrene: they are both recognizably the same aircraft, but they have different limitations because of the material they are made from (and maybe the scale). This means that every species' understanding of the universe, and therefore their technological potential, will plateau at a radically different level depending on accident of brain evolution. If we then assume that the typical journey from detectability (invention of radio) to plateau is very fast (a singularity), most species capable of detecting others will have already plateaued and most species will be first detected during their singularity. The detecting species has to fear that, in a single message round trip, the technological capability of the detected species will have shot past their own.
The Dark Forest hypothesis is extremely negative. It's trying to base what an alien race might do based on human ideas. It doesn't make any logical sense. If anything at all it shows how dangerous humanity is and how much of a threat it poses to the rest of the universe.
The Dark Forest theory is ultimately based on the preconception that advanced alien civilizations would take the shape of a modern, human, scarcity society but with more technology.
It's the same kind of thought process that led some people in the 70's to predict that by the 2000's, computers would be the size of city blocks, yet here I am in 2024, in a bathroom stall, holding the knowledge of ages in the palm of my hand.
The fermi paradox is similarly flawed. Imagine a Sioux wondering that, if there are civilizations in other lands beyond the ocean, how come ha can't see any smoke signals in the horizon.
Here is a theory. What if there is evidence but nobody told you because you are nobody.
This series of books is fascinating to me since when I read it, I enjoyed it, and then I gradually started disliking after I finished. Thinking about it now, it stays with me as an incredibly mean-spirited book. Sometimes you can feel the author trying not to jump out of the page to insult you directly.
Maybe we live in the boonies of the galaxy and simply too far away from anyone
Cixin Liu's conclusion happens to be by chance close to that of the real solution to the Fermi paradox, but the reasoning he employs to get there is entirely off. His mistake is located at the roots of his argumentation, the axioms.
Interesting do you have a link to that solution/ study? 🤔