People these days are attracted to short, easy to understand content with cookie cutter recipe to create quick impressive short-lived results. This is why channels creating quality content providing nuances, context, methodical research grow much slower. Because it takes patiences and critical thinking. Please continue creating quality stuff. One "free video" you provide deserve to be a lecture in university.
@@StatOasis I was working through this video and trying to replicate (more or less) the results you are getting. When i use adjusted stock prices for TSLA the prices around 2010 are in the $1.5 range. The function that calculates the number of shares from the available capital caps at 5000. I changed it to a higher number. I am still only getting $1.3M for the highest net profit in the optimization report while you are getting over $2M. I checked and double checked everything many times. Any suggestions?
I skimmed the video and the code is shown at 14:40 the function use the full account to trade maximum shares up to 5000. most likely it is data issue after most recent stock split
you are absolutely 100% correct. i saw someone talking about entering on the fractal sign (that is shown only after a minimum number of candles...), and another that "test" his "strategy backward in time (from the "now" to past...). i really like your detailed information, especially because i myself am an algo trading developer (on crypto). so your information and ideas really what i'm looking for when looking for new way i haven't thought of. and yes - i too, prefer simple strategies and ideas. Thank you for your great content!
I was wondering how testing. A strategy on one pair on one timeframe with fixed rr 1:1;5 should proove any thing…. So you are 100% right I m also wondering how channels WITHOUT any testing gets xxxxx followers… Keep on doing this great work…. I m also an algotrader and getting much out of your videos
The timeframe used is H1, but trend following only works when traded with a portfolio because you don’t know which instrument will have a big trend next yeat
you can't compare a strategy over 4 days with a strategy over 14 years, regardless of the number of trades. this is like coming to a conclusion that every day for the past 25 years is summer because you saw last 4 sunny days in a raw with 30C temperatures. More over, there is nothing of value that comes from testing last 4 days to trade the future.
Hello Ali Casey, one of the first things that I learned about trading is that RUclipsr with a lot of views, don't know what they are talking about. All their strategies / secretes / insights / "research team info" works only in a strong bull market! When FED prints the money it's easy to be a successful trader. Another thing Ali, in life we always have a choice between quantity and quality, you seem like a nice guy, it's not how many views you have, it's about how many lives you change for the better. Can you be THE GUY that helps somebody become a profitable trader? In my experience as a preschool teacher in China, quality always outperforms quantity. Think about yourself as a Moccart, his music only have 10 000 views at best, but Moccart stud a test of time.
One of the best video Ali. Just a foot note , what you had tested is also a bit of a trick since we cant tell which stock will be rocking longs like this :)
Trend following works great in a portfolio (like 50 instruments) because you don’t know which instrument will have a long trend in the future, so you need many bets
Agree with you Ali. The channel you mentioned is very popular and some useful nuggets. Of late it is becoming rubbish when the creator started cherry-picking instruments (like Tesla) to make a strategy look good. You cannot compare results of Tesla which has grown 50 times in last few year to EUR/USD which has gone no where in the same period !!! However, truth be told, I learnt new ways of improving a strategy by manually eyeballing a chart which I didn't learn from years of software backtesting... So there is some merit in manual back testing but it is not robust...
The problem is, not everyone can afford algo charting software to test ideas, so manual testing is what we got to work with. 100 trades isnt the end all be all, but it gives you an idea if it works to begin with to begin forward testing it since all data past the video publishing date is out of sample data.
thank you for your comment, I totally understand your point, and here is my humble opinion trading is not for everyone, you can do it for fun, just like going to a casino, but don't expect to end up with profits after 50 visits, regardless of your luck. the edge is with the casino, and the more you play (number of bets) the higher the chance you will lose all your money. same thing with the markets, without an edge, law of probability catches up with you quickly. if you search my channel for TAA, you will see many systems that has an edge, and you can invest in these systems starting with $100, but they are not sexy, and their returns, while beat the index, are nothing to write home about. it is totally doable. on the other hand, you can't trade with less than $10,000, because just like you mentioned you will need capital, software, data and training. the problem with 100 trades are many, below are a few examples: 1) what if those 100 trades happened in this year alone, then you over fit your strategy to this year data (volatile bear market), which means strategy will fail when it is exposed to new data that is not similar to this year data 2) manual testing is prone to human errors, what you may consider profit target hit by looking at a chart in reality the stop order didn't hit when computer logic is executed. 3) 100 trades in 15 years have totally different meaning than 100 trades in 10 weeks 4) it gives false hope, or worse mislead the viewer to lose their hard earned cash by following a losing strategy that is masquerading as a winning one. I know I am against the trend here as there are around a 100 channels doing these 100 trades with 100 thounsands subs and millions of views, but that doesn't change the fact that it is all garbage. flipping a coin with risk control will beat any of these strategies, because with flipping a coin you have 50/50 edge, while following those 100 trades will give you less than 50% edge. PS, there are many platforms that offer free version of their software with data to test ideas portfoliovisualizer.com algoriz.com capitalise.ai
@@StatOasis I get what you are saying, but you make it sound like it should only be a playground for rich people to make even more money. To address the points you brought up. 1) if people blindly follow strategies based on video instead of doing their due diligence and forward testing for many more months. That is on them. Optimizations algo traders perform is just overfitting the strategy to the given data set anyway. 2) you can use platforms, like tradovate (atleast for the futures market) instead of tradingview to use their market replay feature to get real time price action in replay mode to see if the stop / take profit was actually hit. 3) that depends on the timeframe you trade in. If you are trading in a 1m or 5m timeframe, of course you will get more trades than someone that only trades in H1, H4 or D. Some strategies perform better / worse thanks to noise filtering the higher you go up. 4) If people backtest nor forward test themselves and go straight to a live account, they are to blame. Its no better than people on social media bragging about winning a scratchoff and you go buying one yourself. Thanks for the suggestions, i will be sure to check those out and see if they offer ES and NQ.
The strategy was invented by Linda Rashke, top hedge fund trader (holy grail strategy). I backtested it and it is profitable on forex pairs, stocks, and commodities
I have been in the financial market since the dot com bubble, but only last ten years, I really understood how to do it profitably, of course still learning as that never ends :)
I think the problem with your videos for majority is "traidability" of those strategies. Most of people have no ability to make use of your information, since you dont show them which indicator to open on tradingview, and what number to input. Like somebody mentioned, keep them poor. You are here, for us, who have SQ, Amibroker, Pinescript coding ability, MQL coding etc. who are able to make use of your valuable insights. And we love your accent 😀. I understand jealousy, but profits must come from some pockets...
You can draw oscillators in thousand ways, make them beautiful, etc. at the end they are measuring price pullback. Still my problem was the testing/scoring method they are using
Nowadays people have the attention span of a chicken so people are drawn to flashy and colorful videos with fast cuts and sensational titles. People want instant reward with no effort.
check out TrendFollowing vs Mean Reversion ruclips.net/video/uomjOj3KLKo/видео.html
People these days are attracted to short, easy to understand content with cookie cutter recipe to create quick impressive short-lived results.
This is why channels creating quality content providing nuances, context, methodical research grow much slower. Because it takes patiences and critical thinking.
Please continue creating quality stuff.
One "free video" you provide deserve to be a lecture in university.
WOW! Thanks a lot 😊
Most underrated channel….
thank you so much for your kind words
HI , since TSLA had stock splits in 2020 and 2023 do you use adjusted data to do your backtest?
yes, otherwise the gap will be too much to handle with all indicators, patterns, etc.
@@StatOasis I was working through this video and trying to replicate (more or less) the results you are getting. When i use adjusted stock prices for TSLA the prices around 2010 are in the $1.5 range. The function that calculates the number of shares from the available capital caps at 5000. I changed it to a higher number. I am still only getting $1.3M for the highest net profit in the optimization report while you are getting over $2M. I checked and double checked everything many times. Any suggestions?
I skimmed the video and the code is shown at 14:40 the function use the full account to trade maximum shares up to 5000.
most likely it is data issue after most recent stock split
Love your channel my friend
👍
Thank you for being here
you are absolutely 100% correct.
i saw someone talking about entering on the fractal sign (that is shown only after a minimum number of candles...), and another that "test" his "strategy backward in time (from the "now" to past...).
i really like your detailed information, especially because i myself am an algo trading developer (on crypto).
so your information and ideas really what i'm looking for when looking for new way i haven't thought of.
and yes - i too, prefer simple strategies and ideas.
Thank you for your great content!
Good to have u here 👍
I was wondering how testing. A strategy on one pair on one timeframe with fixed rr 1:1;5 should proove any thing….
So you are 100% right
I m also wondering how channels WITHOUT any testing gets xxxxx followers…
Keep on doing this great work….
I m also an algotrader and getting much out of your videos
Thank you for your kind words
this channel is way underrated, keep it up Ali!
Appreciate it!
I love your videos man. Keep them coming
Glad you like them!
Please also tell us the time frame you use, what is the best time frame for small accounts not the hedge funds.
The timeframe used is H1, but trend following only works when traded with a portfolio because you don’t know which instrument will have a big trend next yeat
estoy aprendiendo muchisimo con tus videos, gracias ALi
Thank you for watching
Isnt the time differences is how long it took to get 100 trades? Some systems gave many signals and others got few so took longer
you can't compare a strategy over 4 days with a strategy over 14 years, regardless of the number of trades. this is like coming to a conclusion that every day for the past 25 years is summer because you saw last 4 sunny days in a raw with 30C temperatures.
More over, there is nothing of value that comes from testing last 4 days to trade the future.
Thank you 🙏🙏🙏
Can u build a strategy for bank nifty
No data 😑
Im glad you admit youre jealous! I love your channel, new sub here! GREAT VIDEO!
We are only humans 😊
Thanks for subbing!
That was a great video, covered several concepts.
Thank you for watching
Hello Ali Casey, one of the first things that I learned about trading is that RUclipsr with a lot of views, don't know what they are talking about. All their strategies / secretes / insights / "research team info" works only in a strong bull market! When FED prints the money it's easy to be a successful trader. Another thing Ali, in life we always have a choice between quantity and quality, you seem like a nice guy, it's not how many views you have, it's about how many lives you change for the better. Can you be THE GUY that helps somebody become a profitable trader? In my experience as a preschool teacher in China, quality always outperforms quantity. Think about yourself as a Moccart, his music only have 10 000 views at best, but Moccart stud a test of time.
Very wise words, thank you 🙏
Another Great video.. keep going Mr Ali :)
Thanks, will do!
One of the best video Ali.
Just a foot note , what you had tested is also a bit of a trick since we cant tell which stock will be rocking longs like this :)
Trend following works great in a portfolio (like 50 instruments) because you don’t know which instrument will have a long trend in the future, so you need many bets
@@StatOasis
You had a great vid on this as well.
50 stocks will no do the trick , right?
Need 50 markets , am I right?
you are right, although stocks can be one of those markets
Agree with you Ali. The channel you mentioned is very popular and some useful nuggets. Of late it is becoming rubbish when the creator started cherry-picking instruments (like Tesla) to make a strategy look good. You cannot compare results of Tesla which has grown 50 times in last few year to EUR/USD which has gone no where in the same period !!!
However, truth be told, I learnt new ways of improving a strategy by manually eyeballing a chart which I didn't learn from years of software backtesting...
So there is some merit in manual back testing but it is not robust...
It’s true, experience comes from different places
great Work thank You
Thank you too!
The problem is, not everyone can afford algo charting software to test ideas, so manual testing is what we got to work with. 100 trades isnt the end all be all, but it gives you an idea if it works to begin with to begin forward testing it since all data past the video publishing date is out of sample data.
thank you for your comment, I totally understand your point, and here is my humble opinion
trading is not for everyone, you can do it for fun, just like going to a casino, but don't expect to end up with profits after 50 visits, regardless of your luck. the edge is with the casino, and the more you play (number of bets) the higher the chance you will lose all your money. same thing with the markets, without an edge, law of probability catches up with you quickly.
if you search my channel for TAA, you will see many systems that has an edge, and you can invest in these systems starting with $100, but they are not sexy, and their returns, while beat the index, are nothing to write home about. it is totally doable.
on the other hand, you can't trade with less than $10,000, because just like you mentioned you will need capital, software, data and training.
the problem with 100 trades are many, below are a few examples:
1) what if those 100 trades happened in this year alone, then you over fit your strategy to this year data (volatile bear market), which means strategy will fail when it is exposed to new data that is not similar to this year data
2) manual testing is prone to human errors, what you may consider profit target hit by looking at a chart in reality the stop order didn't hit when computer logic is executed.
3) 100 trades in 15 years have totally different meaning than 100 trades in 10 weeks
4) it gives false hope, or worse mislead the viewer to lose their hard earned cash by following a losing strategy that is masquerading as a winning one.
I know I am against the trend here as there are around a 100 channels doing these 100 trades with 100 thounsands subs and millions of views, but that doesn't change the fact that it is all garbage. flipping a coin with risk control will beat any of these strategies, because with flipping a coin you have 50/50 edge, while following those 100 trades will give you less than 50% edge.
PS, there are many platforms that offer free version of their software with data to test ideas
portfoliovisualizer.com
algoriz.com
capitalise.ai
@@StatOasis I get what you are saying, but you make it sound like it should only be a playground for rich people to make even more money.
To address the points you brought up.
1) if people blindly follow strategies based on video instead of doing their due diligence and forward testing for many more months. That is on them. Optimizations algo traders perform is just overfitting the strategy to the given data set anyway.
2) you can use platforms, like tradovate (atleast for the futures market) instead of tradingview to use their market replay feature to get real time price action in replay mode to see if the stop / take profit was actually hit.
3) that depends on the timeframe you trade in. If you are trading in a 1m or 5m timeframe, of course you will get more trades than someone that only trades in H1, H4 or D. Some strategies perform better / worse thanks to noise filtering the higher you go up.
4) If people backtest nor forward test themselves and go straight to a live account, they are to blame. Its no better than people on social media bragging about winning a scratchoff and you go buying one yourself.
Thanks for the suggestions, i will be sure to check those out and see if they offer ES and NQ.
The strategy was invented by Linda Rashke, top hedge fund trader (holy grail strategy). I backtested it and it is profitable on forex pairs, stocks, and commodities
Thanks for sharing
So great as always. The problem is understanding what is worthy and what is just marketing to get more people. THANKS!! 😃
Thank you for watching
You sound like a very knowledgeable and experienced trader. How long have you been doing this?
I have been in the financial market since the dot com bubble,
but only last ten years, I really understood how to do it profitably, of course still learning as that never ends :)
@@StatOasis Hi Sir, are you swing trader or intraday scalper
Please open more spots ok your Course or make digital guide to sqx
thank you for your interest, please register here to be notified go.statoasis.com/ATM
It's amazing how every RUclips channel talks about a 98% win rate LOL using a moving average Crossover with an RSI
😀
As a new content creater in the trading space, i can only agree ;D great video!
Thank you for watching. Nice slide in 😉
@@StatOasis Sorry ;D No for real, there is so much garbage in the field of trading. You are one of the few who provide valuable content.
Love your channel. A rare diamond in the sea of RUclips garbage. Thank you :)
thank you, really appreciate your feedback.
I'll forgive you for the clickbait title. I had a good laugh. You earned a new subscriber :)
welcome to the clan 😊
very interesting video.
Thanks for visiting
Is it possible to communicate via email?
Sure, info at StatOasis dot com
You just got my words :)
Tons of BS out there!
Keep doing great and truly
Thank you for watching
Can you give us a multicharts coupon? It's too expensive 😜
Working on it 😊
Jealous Ali, keep them poor Bro, great content, thank you .
😂 thank you for watching
finally, reality by the numbers. must watch for the "wanna be traders".
Thank you for watching, appreciate the comment
I think the problem with your videos for majority is "traidability" of those strategies. Most of people have no ability to make use of your information, since you dont show them which indicator to open on tradingview, and what number to input. Like somebody mentioned, keep them poor. You are here, for us, who have SQ, Amibroker, Pinescript coding ability, MQL coding etc. who are able to make use of your valuable insights. And we love your accent 😀. I understand jealousy, but profits must come from some pockets...
I like your analysis. thank you for watching.
These "100 trades" channels are very annoying, but they sometimes use interesting indicators :)
You can draw oscillators in thousand ways, make them beautiful, etc. at the end they are measuring price pullback.
Still my problem was the testing/scoring method they are using
@@StatOasis Agreed 100%
Nowadays people have the attention span of a chicken so people are drawn to flashy and colorful videos with fast cuts and sensational titles. People want instant reward with no effort.
well said