The First Polls Since Trump’s Guilty Verdict Are In | 538 Politics Podcast
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- Опубликовано: 3 июн 2024
- It's been four days since former President Donald Trump’s guilty verdict in the Manhattan criminal case, and the early indication from the polls is that there has been a small shift away from Trump in head-to-head polling with President Joe Biden. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we talk about the latest data and whether we expect that shift to endure.
We are also now officially on Supreme Court decision watch, with cases surrounding Jan. 6, the Second Amendment and abortion medication regulations yet to be decided. To prepare for those coming opinions, we play a game of “Guess What Americans Think: Supreme Court Edition.” Do Americans approve of the current court? And do they think it will deliver an unbiased decision on Trump’s presidential immunity case?
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The shift is statistically insignificant. Not different to zero.
Considering how of the polls have been for the past 4 years the pollsters should have been out of a job two years ago.
People like to say stuff like this. I think it's because they wish that polls gave them a sense of certainty when actually the future is unknowable and uncertain. Also probability is quite tricky to understand generally.
Ok, but what about independents in swing states? (I know that's the hardest data to get, but probably the only demo that matters.)
The two big factors are swing voters in swing states and voter turnout in swing states.
And independent voters. Let us not forget independent voters in swing, and non swing states😊
Thank God we have freedom to vote ❤
Trump told fiscal conservatives and moderate Republicans that they are no longer part of HIS party. This pushes the Independents away as well. If MAGA keeps attacking Republicans and Independents, without picking up anyone new, they have no chance. Mentally and physically Trump is on a downhill slope. Once Trump craps his pants during a debate or calls Joe "Obama" he will be finished. CON-Fe-Fe
@@jennetteseymour4985. For now
The fact that election fraud was in play makes it political, but that is literally what EVERY politician bleats when indicted or found guilty. Menendez's is political too, but I would bet the majority of NJ voters think he's guilty regardless of party.
As a NJ voter, he is. The thing is, this isn't the 1st time this happened to him. This is the 2nd time. We are done with him.
@@Dragonite43 So true. I was so pissed when he effectively ran unopposed last time
He's a dem. And dems aren't denying reality. So yeah, both parties agree he's guilty. But the same isn't always true for the other side.
If you're not from here you don't know that the Hudson County Dems are the modern day Tammany Hall.
@@Dragonite43 just like Donnie
Have always loved 538, but its obvious over the last couple years that there is a serious problem with traditional polls, as Conservatives as for the last three election cycles have been polling much higher then they actually deliver.
Is that due to collection methods, an over reliance on the traditional likely voter model, the Bradely effect or some new unforseen factor?
Because even if we look at the Primaries, Trump is delivering 10 to 20% lower then he's polling at. And that's in a Republican only elections where he's running unopposed.
With that in mind what methodologies have pollsters changed to combat these irregularities, because I seriously losing my ability to rely on polls these days.
I actually thought the polls underestimated Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020.
@@HarrisBama
Not in 2020. In 2016 everybody did. (538 changed their estimate of Hilary's odds, but still had her at 66% chance to win)
Lol no they don't. It's the opposite, conservatives have been underrepresented in polls
Well to a degree - Biden still won Popular Vote and Electoral Vote but the polling averages in 2020 were actually more off than 2016.
Trump outperformed the national polling averages by 3-4 points in 2020 and heavily outperformed many of the battleground state polls.
A number of polls can be accessed online. I signed up for the YouGov one and was offered a couple of political polls before they switched me to all marketing polls. Seems like it would be easy for an organized group to manipulate online polls, just like organized groups clearly overrun certain RUclips comment sections.
Came for a poll, got info about someones colon.
I need to do this
It's a metaphor for MAGA
Watching these polls at these time spans is like measuring a state highway with a ruler.
Yeah, we shouldn’t look at polls probably until after Labor Day
the election is barely six months away
Cope
I recognize those hand gestures, they are what had my grandfather, uncles and dad in Europe in the 30's.
It was da James who ran on bringing trump to Justice, not Alvin bragg. Please get your facts straight
They both did
Crazy how 34 felony counts moves the needle by half a percent, while Biden can trip while walking and lose two points.
Everyone knows it's all coming from your crooked, extreme left party
Because everyone realizes that the “34 felony counts” were 100% political and were filed by the far left to damage Biden’s political opponent. In a fair system the “34 felonies” never would have been charged and both Biden and Harris would be in federal prison by now, but we don’t, we live in a world of liberal privilege.
Biden stammers once, minus 3 points.
Trump freezes and glitches continually on speeches, promises to be a dictator, promises to get revenge on everyone, promises to destroy all reproduction health care, screwed up the past terms, stole secret to possibly sell and leak them, and get convicted of 34 felonies, virtually no change.
Maybe it is time to look at emigration if Trump is elected before the camps and death platoons are up and running.
Don't believe it. The numbers are weird in ways we haven't fathomed yet.
That’s because no one actually like Biden. He was just the lefts “not Trump”. No one chose that man 😂
Hey, it's fun to have video too but hey I'm happy we have full podcasts again
This sucks. You guys can't even be bothered to put the numbers on the screen??
This is a podcast.
@@elsah3339 this is a video on youtube.
@@CollinGerberding Some videos do not have video. But all audio's are audible.
@@elsah3339 No, it's a RUclips channel that has video. I know what a podcast is: just audio.
@@misterguts I've had silent mp3s before.
Thanks for putting up the full episode - but I'm assuming you recorded the video the same as you used to. Why not put it up?
Letitia James promised to go after Trump, but I believe Bragg never did. I think Bragg has been blamed for James
Independents/swing voters in swing states, we’ll have to see how they vote
They just gave the election to Trump.
They are all pretty intelligent that’s my area,, we know 😊
@@jennetteseymour4985Considering the two choices we have. An old, decent and effective leader vs and old corrupt felon..... Independents still are on the fence? I don't think the word intelligence comes to mind.
@@DoctorTruth45way to win over the much-needed independents guys.
@DoctorTruth45 an old decent leader? The guy showered with his teen daughter and has been declared mentally incompetant to stand trial.
Thanks for the full episodes, video or not. Seriously, thanks.
I'm sorry but Alvin Bragg never said he would prosecute Trump. He said he would continue to investigate.
Yes, don't parrot incorrect talking points.
Alvin Braggs Did Not say I running to get Trump.. it was Letitia James
Thank You
They both said that they were going to "get Trump," if elected.🙄@stephanieellis7302
He and Leticia James said that they would "get Trump," if elected. 🙄
yay colonoscopy! they're a pain in the ass (...), but they save lives... good to raise awareness!
Any number above zero in favor of Trump is an embarrassment.
Any the number of votes above one for Trump is an embarrassment.
Donald Trump should literally get the votes of zero Americans, considering that felons are not allowed to vote…
"Former president, convicted felon"
If there's a God, McDonald's J Trump is his judgement upon our nation.
back to your protest Dem **!
You said that the supreme Court doesn't see the presidential immunity decision as being about this trump trial. I think that's false. I think that's how they want to frame it, but if they weren't trying to delay to help him out they could have rules that he was just wrong very quickly. It's pretty obvious they're trying to figure out a way to help him without actually agreeing with his terrible argument.
This isn't about Trump anymore. Dems are attacking the very *office* of the presidency.
This all feels like 2016 again.
Not to me. To me it feels unprecedented. (but I guess 2016 was unprecedented at the time)
As an old WW2 warrior told me about the Battle of the Bulge, it seems hopeless and he wondered if it would ever stop. He fought the Germans through December of '44, then driven out of Germany and still fighting in January of '45, then nearly getting wiped out in early February before going back into Germany close to the first of March. I asked him what made you keep going and he said "we just knew we had to keep going, the stakes were too high not to". Right now the stakes are too high not to keep going and get people to the polls in Novermber.
If you mean that Trump is the lesser of two evils then I think you're right.
@@ScottCleve33 I think you replied to the wrong person.
@@Zenny1220 no. Not really.
The Presidential Immunity case is only a "Landmark Case" if you are considering imposing a dictatorship. Otherwise its a no brainer.
We already have one
@@realCyng A presidents son being in court RIGHT NOW indicates otherwise.
@@realCyng My condolences on the passing of your brain
@@kenwhite6449 Locking up your opponents, doesn't get much dictatorial than that
@@kenwhite6449
Biden’s actions speak louder than your words.
Trust someone who starts a video with pooper inspection ads??
Thanks for the whole episode!
Great job🎉
Yay! Long Form!
Good but we want the videos :(
Agreed! Especially when they do the game. It's never to see people holding up their answers.
Sorry to hear about your colonoscopy. Hope it goes according to your best wishes. That aside, I am happy that it wasn't a preamble to a sponsor message.
Where is the video???? Please we want video!
The main question is, when it comes to Independents, and undecideds who aren't saying right now that they would vote for Trump, how many of them, if Trump would be sentenced to prison, would all of a sudden then decide to vote for Trump.
A) prison time is unlikely. Many legal analysts have come out to say that because of the charges it's unlikely he'll do prison time. Furthermore how does someone with secret service protection serve time in prison. Worst case scenario Trump will be out on house arrest. His crimes were just not that severe.
B) thus may have galvanized many independents against Biden. Between the fact that Biden isn't a popular president combined with the appearance of trying to jail his political adversary much like dictator or Nazi it's not a good look and US citizen, in general, don't like it.
Come on guys, get the facts correct. Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan District Attorney, did not explicitly campaign on prosecuting Donald Trump during his run for office. However, he did emphasize his experience in handling high-profile and complex cases, including those involving public corruption and financial crimes.
Thanks for the reminder of why I only go to 538 for numbers and not commentary. I miss Claire.
Yes. Don't parrot incorrect talking points.
I have noticed an apparent decrease in their level of care about opinions & accurate statements since the purchase..
Your comment is fake news. Alvin Bragg ran to get President Trump.
Claire went kinda nuts sadly
An independent jury convicted Trump.
For the fourth time I got hung up on from a presidential poller when I said I was voting for Biden.
lmao
Not surprised. Vote BLUE 🇺🇸
No you didnt
@@Infj4321 It's way too expensive to vote blue, and from what I'm seeing there isn't fascism in red states and it's cheaper to live there. The Democrats are lying and ripping us off. Everything is way more expensive now because of them.
Weird. I am from Malaysia.. After looking at biden record low approval rating I thought there's no chance people gonna vote for him again. Esp after he refuse to take the cognitive test. Democrats also make a huge mistake using the law like this. Ive seen it first hand. Malaysia current Pm is a convicted felon too. He political aspiration was dead until the people in power do what they did to him. Same as what trump going trough rn. Dnc making a huge mistake. The sad thing is everybody but them saw this kind of attack on trump gonna back fire
Superb graphics.
We want video
Hey, I want to see your faces.
We can see one of the guys on the screen! He's wearing square glasses and purple headphones, and he's holding a cute tiny tablet! I think he was in SONIC The Hedgehog II.
I don't think the negative impact on Trump will fade, but the opposite, as it forces his sleaze and the MAGA defence of it ever more front and centre across all media. Also independents are by definition more thoughtful voters who take longer to form their views that the tribes.
I wonder what might happens if the Supreme Court overturns this...
Latinos por Trump 🎺
if you are not going to provide video, at least take a screenshot of the participants faces and their names so we know who is on the show. thanks!
Shouldn't we be much more concerned with polling of voters in the six or seven swing states versus the overall vote count?
No video?
No one ever asks me my opinion.
I think it’s Biden 225, Trump 257, with Trump favored to win NV, GA, NC and the election coming down to AZ, NE CD-2, WI, MI, PA. It’s gonna be a close election.
Edit: even though I try to look at elections through a nonpartisan lens, I can’t help it but think about Project 2025 and the Trump/GOP plan to dismantle government agencies such as the EPA, FDA, NOAA, etc.
I don't see Trump winning Georgia right out in November. I see a run-off in Georgia. It will be that close.
I suspect it will be closer to what we would have imagined a race with a felon candidate would turn out.
NE is solid Dem, Biden won by 6.5 in 2020 (more than Trump won FL or TX).
It won't be close. Trump has it in the bag and anyone who says otherwise is coping.
I can see the result being a slight victory for Biden to a blow out win by Trump. Everything is lining up for a Trump landslide. All of the traditional red states are all but locks for Trump. The swing states are all toss ups or leaning Trump. Even traditional blue states are toss ups or leaning Trump.
North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada all look good for Trump. States like Pennsylvania and Michigan, which are traditionally Blue states, are toss ups or leaning Trump. Wisconsin is a traditional blue state and is a toss up right now.
It really doesn't look good for Biden. If he doesn't take all three of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan I don't think he can win and since he barely won Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2020 and his support in those states has diminished I'd say taking all three is unlikely.
I’m not advocating for push polling but I do wish a question asked was “Do you think a convicted felon can adequately serve as President?”
Polls should be about having accurate information. A leading question like your own seems unlikely to change minds. It will just make them lie to the pollster so we won’t know where the race actually stands.
@@jeremywitkowski7860 it's just a different question to poll. There's a large subsection of the population that thinks Trump did crimes, is guilty, and they either don't care about the crime or still think he's better than Biden.
I say yes any one could do better then Biden
but most brainwashed maga supporters don't think trump is guilty cuz that's what he told em
@@SalamiSteve can you see how that phrasing is leading though? People who may be shy about supporting Trump may give the answer they think the pollster wants rather than what they believe. How you phrase questions can change the response.
Right term limits are difficult to add to Supreme Court. Instead make it a pool system. You will be added to a permanent pool of justices but those justices will be added to a case at random pull. Therefore we can add/maintain any number of justices while keeping any case to be limited to a maximum # of justices, e.g. 9 justices per case with a random pull from the pool.
And would this pool be compromised or 50/50 Democrats and Republicans?
Good on you for the colonoscopy and colon cancer awareness!
Are we supposed to have sample size memorized for these polls? It’s meaningless to me without it
Upper Midwest... I suspect Iowa isn't that.
why does another polling site show Real Clear Polling from numerous pollsters in some states & 538 often only shows one or few pollsters?
U.S. Polls should include these questions:
> What if Trump were convicted on the charges of ESPIONAGE that a
Grand Jury already
indicted him on ("documents case")?
> What about switching the GOP nominee to Haley (even though he took over the RNC, "the court of public opinion" verdict is worth learning)?
> What effect will Trump's mishandling and SHARING of Confidential National Security documents will
have on our allies' sharing of their intel with the U.S.?
> What would each candidate likely do re the Israel v Palestine war?
~~~~~~~~~~
It should be telling that U.S. forefathers didn't forbid convicted felons from holding the office of POTUS because it was
inconceivable that
"We the people" would elect a
convicted felon. 🇺🇲
that voice is grim
This also doesn't take into account the effect of Abortion being on a bunch of polls.
pod BACK
There's too much time wasting and too little getting to the results in this show.
Wheres the video
What happened to the zoom call video?
What happened to video podcasts? I miss seeing your enthusiastic faces.
Samuel Alito's wife flew "far right symbols"?
Flags
Can we have a show that talks about how many polls are modeled on people who answer landlines and cell phones?
I like how instead of reflecting on why the American voters are rejecting Democrats, you prefer to engage in cognitive dissonance and pretend that the same polls that have over sampled Democrats for the last 10 plus years are now suddenly biased towards trump 😂
They always hang up on me when I say Trump. I’m still a registered dem.
What happened to the video feed?
538 is looking for a video editor. If you have the skills please apply. The audience is bored in the comment section on RUclips listening to a radio feed.
How about after sentencing for his felony with even 3-6 months in the lock up?
You guys don't yet have a likely turnout list.
C'mon
🇺🇸💙🇺🇸💙🇺🇸
The amount of Republicans who support immunity doubling when Trump is specifically mentioned doesn't give me any confidence that they care about law and order at ALL. Sometimes when I argue with conservatives, they will start throwing around "oh, prosecute Biden then" and I just say... yes. If there are crimes to be brought against him and evidence of those crimes, absolutely he should be prosecuted too. Everyone should be held accountable, no exceptions for your personal favorites?
HOW, WHO and HOW MANY people did you poll? Otherwise how can we weigh the noise? Are these polls worthless?
Yumm delicious coping 😂
@@kp63 I 🙏🏽hope you are right!
Any affiliation with radio 538?
wouldn't surprise me if this helps Trump America's citizens fetish for dictatorship
TRUMP FOR PRISON 2024
BIDEN FOR PRISON 2024
And biden for the rest home 2024.
@@michaelaldrich5340 yes, because being in a rest home is worse than being a convicted felon. Good one. I guess?
@@walkwithme6103convicted felon for literally nothing, so far.
It’s politically motivated. No one cares.
@@walkwithme6103 Biden family for prison.
Why aren't you on RUclips. I would like to see you.
I think the main takeaway from these polls is the general dissatisfaction and cynicism the American public have of their Government and politics in general. We have been in a serious leadership deficit for too long.
From here in Europe I really cannot wrap my head around Trump still having millions of people who intend to vote for him.
You ever hear that old Carlin joke about how the average person is an idiot, and 50% of people are even dumber? Pretty much that.
@@zspolson That's why the idea of Biden is so ludicrous. Or choices aren't great but he's clearly not an option.
@@ruthsaunders9507 Thanks for proving my point with your inane non-comeback.
@@zspolson Its a simple choice. Biden's been a disaster.
@@zspolson Thanks for your even more inane comment. Your pointless point remains unproven.
Who makes sure that all votes are counted? Should we have a bipartisan commission to look into allegations of fraud? Because judges and congress are doing zero. There is a real problem when witnesses say they saw questionable activities happening and no chain of command to insure votes were protected. This is a bipartisan issue. I am a registered Democrat but I feel the last election was handled questionably
Re: guilty but politically motivated.
Yes, he's guilty.
Would anyone have cared about it if he had slunk off back to his private grift industry?
No. They only bothered with prosecuting him because of the ongoing threat of his return to the presidency.
No contradiction there.
I think the whole thing is great. I hope both parties stop turning their head at the crimes from the other side instead of sweeping them under the rug because they are afraid their own criminality will be prosecuted. Next we can get rid of all the insider trading in Congress
Yeah because the idea that they prosecuted him because it looked very much like he was guilty obviously wasn't the answer.
It has helped him instead of hurting him like the democrats hoped. Trump 2024.
ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL.
Good thing nothing else was happening around then.
Stop the Convicted Felon!
Not a Trump voter. Nor a Biden voter. Political use of the Legislative power for a witch hunt is only going to backfire.
I love that convicted Felon, Big Dik, thank God you have a 1 in, kids won’t be hurt to bad
@@jennetteseymour4985Also you can't write a coherent sentence
@@jennetteseymour4985 it's weird to end the sentence with "kids won't be hurt to bad" after starting it with a "Big Dik Felon".
I mean, it's on point, just weird.
TDS flare ups going wild
This is BS. Independents and normal Republicans are not telling pollsters how they’ll vote. Who they support. So it’s BS.
wrong.
If the verdict is correct, the indictment was appropriate, not political. The only political prosecution would be one in which there is no evidence or it can be demonstrated that evidence was fabricated. That might be a political prosecution.
A shift of 1% could be the whole ballgame, but _you can't measure it_ because it is within the margin of error of the poll.
AKA: Orange man bad is losing, but we can't prove it!
Most voters won't start paying attention till around 90 days out!!
He's getting away with this, or whatever the made up crimes are, and it's hilarious.
Polls lol.
Did Nate get a gambling debt bailout from ABC? Maybe it was more than that but the 538 show sold out to a corporation
538.....😂😂😂😂😂😂......
I sincerely hope Americans vote sanely and vote Blue down ballot.
Voting for the Maoists is sane?
@realCyng If there any on the ballot, it would be weird.
@@maryreeves357 the democrats are already there!
sanity went out the window long ago. I say vote Trump and accelerate the inevitable.
@@bird4816 not sure about that. I like the freedoms I have. I look around me every day and thank ‘whoever’ for the freedoms I have. I’d hate to have that taken away from me and future generations. We have to stand firm for humanity, for kindness. Trump is definitely not the way to go. Don’t give up so easily what so many worked and died for. We’ve never had a better opportunity than the time we are living in now to defend the freedoms we enjoy.
Bragg didn't campaign on indicting or prosecuting Trump. Only on holding him accountable.
It was Tish James who campaigned on "getting" Trump. And as she proved her case with evidence to a jury of Trump's peers, and they voted unanimously in favor of holding him liable, she got him for the MASSAIVE fraud going back years by the Trump organized crime enterprise.
Bragg didn't campaign on getting Trump. But the case was there when he took office, and he evaluated it, brilliantly substantiated Trump's guilt, and even the NAGA juror voted his guilt.
uh huh..
You have to prosecute to hold them accountable...
Too bad that "holding accountable" is a circular term implying guilt. It is equivalent to "getting".
A FELON good on crime...
What are we doing...🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬
Crazy that Trump can get over 40%! Vote Blue!!!
Not on your life.
blue is the reason he gets so many votes. Trump is only technically a republican, he's not a politician and makes career politicians seethe. that's why I like him
Trump is going down , rightly so.
That opening is wild
False information. Bragg did not campaign on convicting Trump. That was James.
TRUMP RALLY in Newport Beach, California today June 8th 🎉
What were your polls in 2016??
30% chance of TRUMPF???🤭🤣
Where were your polls in 2020?
OBiden still pooping his pants.
As usual, I wasn't polled. Neither was anyone I know. I've never been polled. Nor has anyone I know. Why???
Both parties tried to pull me at least every two weeks. I won't answer either party but I will be voting blue come november.
Jesus, is that really your real voice? It sounds like an SNL character.
No mention of the case on the homeless at all?
Fuck the polls, just get out there and VOTE