Wharton's Professor Siegel Predicts Market for 2024
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- Опубликовано: 11 мар 2024
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Not sure how I found you, but glad I did. Thank you
Thank you Carol
Very informative views. Thank you.
I appreciate your sensible balanced presentation and thank you.
Thank you Larry
Had Professor Siegel ever been bearish in the past 3 decades?
Thanks for a good video. I'm more bearish than Prof. Siegel in part because of these factors, which were not with us in 1999: the commercial real estate downturn; sharply increased interest rates; an enfeebled regional banking system; a dollar under attack globally, including China's recent step-up of gold purchases and a new BRICS payments system; and my skepticism that the Fed, if it has any publicly desirable purpose, can be motivated to cut interest rates when unemployment is at 3.9% and inflation is at 3.2%. The inflation rate of 3.2% is 28% higher than the average annual inflation rate, 2.5%, for the past 25 years. The unemployment rate of 3.9% is one-third below the historical average of 5.8%.
The public has been told that the Fed has two objectives: price stability and minimal unemployment. The unemployment criterion is satisfied, but the price stability criterion isn't. Prof. Siegel and the Wall Street community in general seem to have a third Fed objective in mind: maintenance of bull markets, and that, along with monetization of Washington's spending, may be the real objectives of the Fed, so Prof. Siegel may be right. Both have led and will increasingly lead to instability in the political and social realms.
If Wall Street and Prof. Siegel are right, the Fed will continue to fuel problems that go beyond stock market fluctuations. The debasement of the dollar has led to the formation of BRICS, which aims to replace the dollar with a gold-and-currency-basket currency, which it is now developing. BRICS aims to remove gold trading from the Comex and remonetize gold. China has announced sharp increases in its rate of gold purchases. Barbarians have no qualms about ignoring the privileges of Wall Street in favor of relics. A dollar shorn of its exchange and eventually reserve status will not be able to subsidize the stock market returns of the past 111 years at the expense of labor.
The average American may have more in common with the aims of the Chinese and Russians than with the aims of Washington. The paper-money-fueled markets have deprived them of pay raises that equal marginal producitivity. They have a right to be angry about inflation.
As well, given that the federal government has been borrowing a trillion dollars every hundred days, I am wondering whether there will be much of a US stock market in a few years. We may all be learning to speak Chinese sooner rather than later. I have little doubt that eventually the Fed will have to accomodate Washington's banana republic policies, and Prof. Seigel may be right in the short run, but barring technological miracles that go beyond the present capacities of AI, I doubt that the party will last more than a few years.
Professor of Economics? What a genius.
Who was it (Hemmingway?) who said "how do you go broke?" "Slowly at first, then all at once."
Thanks
Welcome
He used the Official US patented Wharton Business School Dart Board with special tungsten steel darts with rare feathers from prehistoric Doo Doo birds. In short, he’s darn lucky.
Its an election year…. what do you think….
Wow, Cathy sees inflation going negative this year. That sounds like a hard landing.
Isn’t he the guy that told us to buy the top in late 2007? He said the economy is strong and housing isn’t in a bubble and everything will be fine and to not listen to the doom and gloom.
I don’t know. Didn’t follow him back then. I do know that Goldman Sachs (via Abby Joseph Cohen) was saying in December 2007) that the market should go up +12% in 2008.
HAHAHA.....No way no how we will get 1 rate cut before September IF we are lucky!!! It is getting uglier and uglier everyday! Look we have gone from 7 rate cuts to may be 2. We have to wait and see anyway so let's wait and see!!
None of these people have any idea where the market is headed. Nobody does. One thing that everybody knows is that irrational exuberance is extremely high at the moment. So everybody is just trading.
The market is getting more broad even small caps are starting to participate. The market still has a way to go. Buy on any dips. We may see a 5% correction but it will resume after that. This is not 2000 these companies have money and they are making money.
Can you run that by me again I missed something
There is too much money on the sidelines to be completely doomsaying, but we have gone through "rolling recessions" in past decades where part of the economy is going down, while other industries still thrive, or at least suffice to grow.
Warren Buffet once said if you have an economist on your staff, you have one to many people. Warren has seen the light.
Rate cut its not going to happen, the rate is going up .50% the next quarter
The S&P shall easily eclipse 6,000 by Q4 2024. There's too much cash on the sidelines from December 2021 through today.
Cuts will happen.Like .25.
The market is not over bought, there are 6 trillion dollars sitting on the sideline waiting to get in. Interest rate is coming down,, unemployment rate is not going up and corporation's profits are promising. All we need now is the geopolitical conflicts slowly coming to an end.
It's hard to believe 😅the inflation will go negative this year.
M
Investors should exercise caution with their exposure and exercise caution when considering new investments, particularly during periods of inflation. It is advisable to seek guidance from a professional or consultant in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields.
AI
He’s always bullish, which statistically is a good bet.
Rate cuts for Biden, not because it is good for the country.
Price/GDP ratio is higher than it's ever been. Ever. That can't be good.
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Welcome