At match point scoring, I think either bidding 5 hearts or doubling 4 spades has to be correct. Depending on whether you think the chances of either 5 hearts making or 4 spades making or the chance that 4 spades is going down is greater. Since at least one of these has to happen more the 50% of the time and at matchpoints the upside is at least as good as the downside. I think this hand is on the cusp (I think both options are better than passing) but I would probably take a punt at 5 hearts. At IMPs , I would just bid 5 hearts to make sure any game swing is in our favour.
Hi, Thanks for your comment. Whilst I agree I think this is a tricky hand to bid (and therefore, there are always going to be differing opinions about what is right etc.), I am not sure I agree that you 'must' act at matchpoints (or indeed teams). 5H could easily be going off, which the LTC tells us it is, and 4S could also be going off. Similarly 4S could be making and 5H therefore probably going at least 2 off if so. Don't forget that the negative double only promises 4 hearts and around 10+ points so the 5 level could be way way too high. The negative double hand having the AS is a fantastic asset and you still cannot make 5H or defeat 4S. Change this to the KS and give them the JH to compensate (which is more likely given the bidding) and now 5H is an absolutely car crash of a contract. As you can see from the hand in the video, passing 4S happens to not work well because the opponents can make due to the fortuitous lie in clubs for them, but bid 5H and you will almost certainly get doubled and then likely go down 2 (2 clubs, a diamond and a diamond ruff for the defence) which is still -500 at this vulnerability, even with partner's aforementioned dream Ax in spades holding. Swap the QC and the AC between North and South, the bidding is identical but now 4S is going off AND 5H is still going off, so passing is now the correct action (or penalty doubling 4S but you simply cannot know to do that with only 2 certain tricks in defence between the two hands). I think you hit the nail on the head with the opening sentence of your comment: 'EITHER bidding 5H or doubling their 4S has to be correct'. Yes, it is very likely one of those two will work out, but it is not clear at all which one is indeed correct, so it is effectively a guess. The safest action in my view is to pass as you cannot know either way. Hope this helps explain the rational behind my thinking in the vid. Cheers, Dom
Hiya, The Losing Trick Count is a much better mechanism than adding on points for shortage. I have a lot about the wonders of the Losing Trick Count on my website. There is the start of a 2 part article series here (allthingsbridge.co.uk/the-wonders-of-the-losing-trick-count-part-i/), a video lesson here (allthingsbridge.co.uk/the-losing-trick-count/) and a quiz here (allthingsbridge.co.uk/a-quiz-on-the-losing-trick-count/). Please check them out to see what you think. Cheers, Dom
At match point scoring, I think either bidding 5 hearts or doubling 4 spades has to be correct. Depending on whether you think the chances of either 5 hearts making or 4 spades making or the chance that 4 spades is going down is greater. Since at least one of these has to happen more the 50% of the time and at matchpoints the upside is at least as good as the downside. I think this hand is on the cusp (I think both options are better than passing) but I would probably take a punt at 5 hearts.
At IMPs , I would just bid 5 hearts to make sure any game swing is in our favour.
Hi,
Thanks for your comment. Whilst I agree I think this is a tricky hand to bid (and therefore, there are always going to be differing opinions about what is right etc.), I am not sure I agree that you 'must' act at matchpoints (or indeed teams). 5H could easily be going off, which the LTC tells us it is, and 4S could also be going off. Similarly 4S could be making and 5H therefore probably going at least 2 off if so. Don't forget that the negative double only promises 4 hearts and around 10+ points so the 5 level could be way way too high. The negative double hand having the AS is a fantastic asset and you still cannot make 5H or defeat 4S. Change this to the KS and give them the JH to compensate (which is more likely given the bidding) and now 5H is an absolutely car crash of a contract.
As you can see from the hand in the video, passing 4S happens to not work well because the opponents can make due to the fortuitous lie in clubs for them, but bid 5H and you will almost certainly get doubled and then likely go down 2 (2 clubs, a diamond and a diamond ruff for the defence) which is still -500 at this vulnerability, even with partner's aforementioned dream Ax in spades holding. Swap the QC and the AC between North and South, the bidding is identical but now 4S is going off AND 5H is still going off, so passing is now the correct action (or penalty doubling 4S but you simply cannot know to do that with only 2 certain tricks in defence between the two hands).
I think you hit the nail on the head with the opening sentence of your comment: 'EITHER bidding 5H or doubling their 4S has to be correct'. Yes, it is very likely one of those two will work out, but it is not clear at all which one is indeed correct, so it is effectively a guess. The safest action in my view is to pass as you cannot know either way.
Hope this helps explain the rational behind my thinking in the vid.
Cheers,
Dom
@@learnmodernbridge101 Okay, I thought East/West were favourable vulnerability.
Why arent you adding points for spade singleton??
Hiya,
The Losing Trick Count is a much better mechanism than adding on points for shortage. I have a lot about the wonders of the Losing Trick Count on my website. There is the start of a 2 part article series here (allthingsbridge.co.uk/the-wonders-of-the-losing-trick-count-part-i/), a video lesson here (allthingsbridge.co.uk/the-losing-trick-count/) and a quiz here (allthingsbridge.co.uk/a-quiz-on-the-losing-trick-count/). Please check them out to see what you think.
Cheers,
Dom