The heatwave is ongoing! In fact it’s even hotter now than it was in May and June which explains why the recent injection was only 31bcf while the ones in May and June were 70-90 bcf. There is no reason for this sell off when national demand is still very high according to Natgas weather. Why does everyone keep saying the heatwave has come and gone to justify this sell off when you know that is complete BS. Why can’t you just be honest and say sometimes Natgas just does what she wants without any explanation?
🎉Your comment is wonderful, without too much water, but for some reason the author of the video does not take these facts into account in his forecast👍
Bruce is offering technical analysis, not fundamental analysis, which is what you are talking about. They are two different and separate things. Speaking more to fundamentals, end-of-season inventories are projected to be over 3,900 TCF, which is more than the five-year average, supply has been steadily creeping back up to ~100 BCF/day, there was an increase in the gas-directed rig count last week, and, historically speaking, summer prices over $3.00 are unsustainable. Massive shorting drove the price down last February to an oversold condition (daily candles), which was very early in the season for the bottom to have been reached. It became clear that there was a lot of short covering over the following weeks, which meant that no one was going to drive it lower, so traders started going long to the point that there was net long positioning overall. This, combined with the seasonality of the commodity (ie utility companies buying gas because they have to), drove the price to an overbought condition. A lot of money was made over a relatively short period of time and there was no fundamental reason for the price to go any higher, so traders are selling. I don't have a crystal ball, but I bet we see $2.00 before we see $3.00 again. I think that when you say that natural gas sometimes does what it wants without any explanation, you're observing when it switches between being controlled by fundamentals to technicals, or from technicals to fundamentals. It's basically a seasonal pump-and-dump with enormous speculation- it's like the penny stock of commodities.
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Thanks, Bruce!
The heatwave is ongoing! In fact it’s even hotter now than it was in May and June which explains why the recent injection was only 31bcf while the ones in May and June were 70-90 bcf. There is no reason for this sell off when national demand is still very high according to Natgas weather. Why does everyone keep saying the heatwave has come and gone to justify this sell off when you know that is complete BS. Why can’t you just be honest and say sometimes Natgas just does what she wants without any explanation?
🎉Your comment is wonderful, without too much water, but for some reason the author of the video does not take these facts into account in his forecast👍
Bruce is offering technical analysis, not fundamental analysis, which is what you are talking about. They are two different and separate things. Speaking more to fundamentals, end-of-season inventories are projected to be over 3,900 TCF, which is more than the five-year average, supply has been steadily creeping back up to ~100 BCF/day, there was an increase in the gas-directed rig count last week, and, historically speaking, summer prices over $3.00 are unsustainable.
Massive shorting drove the price down last February to an oversold condition (daily candles), which was very early in the season for the bottom to have been reached. It became clear that there was a lot of short covering over the following weeks, which meant that no one was going to drive it lower, so traders started going long to the point that there was net long positioning overall. This, combined with the seasonality of the commodity (ie utility companies buying gas because they have to), drove the price to an overbought condition.
A lot of money was made over a relatively short period of time and there was no fundamental reason for the price to go any higher, so traders are selling. I don't have a crystal ball, but I bet we see $2.00 before we see $3.00 again. I think that when you say that natural gas sometimes does what it wants without any explanation, you're observing when it switches between being controlled by fundamentals to technicals, or from technicals to fundamentals. It's basically a seasonal pump-and-dump with enormous speculation- it's like the penny stock of commodities.
Looks like a giant cup and handle
I think you're right, but we might not see the continuation for a few months, or until fundamentals support the pattern.