UPDATE: Since we wrote and animated this video, the US and its allies have announced further sanctions on Russia's oil industry, which will put even more strain on Russia's oil revenues in the coming years. Thanks for watching, and we hope you enjoyed the video!
Sanctions mean that participating countries volunteer to lose money for their populace, businesses, and politicians. This is why they say "Sanctions never work". This is well known to adults that have seen this cycle repeat enough times to catch on. Young people don't yet understand that while sanctions raise prices, the politicians and businesses make more money at the cost of their people by preventing only their own people from having enough, and requiring that people only buy from them instead of their competition. This is why you're watching a video that tells you that sanctions will work this time, while simultaneously saying that sanctions are on, but not working so they need some more.
You should look at profits, not revenue. Profits are what actualy is left for Russia to fund their war with. Revenue tells you very little if you don't know anything about the costs side.
Not to mention Russian fossil fuel revenues have dropped by a roughly a third since pre-invasion levels. That will significantly eat into any profit margins.
Putin, Musk, Trump, Bezos, Orbán, Kim, Jinping, Kkomeini are all cartoonish villians whom I'd prefer to see flattened into 2D. In a violent way. If that wasn't clear you might be one of their supporters and should go back to school.
A man that's started several wars resulting in the deaths of hundreds of thousands over decades of authoritarian rule? Or the creator of Facebook? Pretty close in terms of influence tbh
Revenues might have not fallen by that much since 2022, but costs for selling the oil and gas have massively increased for Russia. They can no longer use pipelines, they have to spend money on circumventing sanctions, had to built up a shadow fleet, etc. Gazprom is running massive deficits and firing thousands of people. They also don't estimate that they can survive without subsidies, while in the past they were a cash cow for Russia. Overall, sanctions can do damage but not prevent anything. Russia has lost hundreds of billions in frozen assets and is running massive deficits for its war while draining its state pension fund to almost zero. They cannot sustain the war. Comparing December 2024 to December 2023, Russia already had to scale back actions in Ukraine. More importantly, in the next 1-2 years they will run out of Soviet equipment, which is 80% of their new equipment.
shadow fleet is not thing that need building. these are regular ships from other countries, they meet with russian oil ship at sea, load oil, mix it with oil from third countries, make docs that this is not russian oil, and profit. you sold legal oil to west
@azmob8909 in terms of Russian equipment losses and economics i would suggest perun. His videos are hour long ppt but he's an experienced defense econonimist. Another good one is Caspian report he paid for satellite fotos of Russian equipment storages and counted them all individually and attempted to assess thier damage.
Three things to add here: 1. The revenue statistic is given in billion rubels by the orks themselves. A statistic by a neutral in $ would look differently. 2. In the short run previously sanktioned or limited suppliers (Irak, Libya) might return to the market. 3. In the long run growing renewables will pressure all fossils.
You all been saying Russia will break for years 😂😂 I love the west desperation. Under heavy sanctions Russia is growing faster than any European economy
Unfortunately you forgot to mention that Russia also imports energy like gasoline because it never developed it's own capacity enough. So a big chunk of its export gains is spent on pricy imports. They even massively increased their imports in 2024 as their refineries were hit by drone strikes. Russia's economy "boost" is completely artificial and will collapse like a house of cards.
"As of December 2024, there are more than 30 major oil refineries (refineries) in Russia and about 80 more mini-refineries." Funny bots like to write fictional stories from their voices in their heads and pass it off as reality
Russias biggest issue is keeping refineries going. This is why they banned diesel exports as there is insufficient production inside Russia after breakdowns and drone strikes. Likewise oilfields will be falling apart without spares and tech from the west, three years without maintenance is a long stretch.
@@GunsNRoses87AXLlol what? An 8 minute video is not long, and the ad is only at the end so you can just close the video as soon as they're done with the news, no need to watch the ad.
Russia already burned through their entire warchest and their inflation is two digits the third year in a row. These sanctions are not meant to break a country from one day to another, but over time, since no developed economy simply ceases to exist.
russia been running an accountant schema. Not only have they used up the 250 billion from the National wealth fund BUT also forced their own banks to lend out money to the military companies which also is 250 billion USD. So yeah russia is very very bankrupt. Used up all saved capital and put all banks in high debt and on top of that oil production is being destroyed. And Usa is about to sanctions all russian oil companies, they will not even be allowed to sell oil at 60 usd.
@@walther2492 Whats the point of sanction when they got the world's factory, the country with the largest population as allies ? Literally the world does not care except for nato They lost what ? Overpriced luxury goods from europe ?
Don't compare increased LNG imports to the degrease in gas imports with side-by-side, absolute figures! It's misleading and bad journalism to insinuate that LNG imports come anywhere near close to accounting for the decreased gas imports
Gas dropping to 40 dollars per barrel is a pipe dream. Big oil in America want to make a profit. Demand decreasing is the only way gas prices go down in any meaningful way.
Because it's the reality for the past 3 years xD ... If you look at the data, it's been on a downtrend since 2022... so to say it's going down year after year would be a truthful report of reality since 2022. That's what the data says. Nobody said it would be zero, but it is decreasing.
Baby steps but the screws are turning. It's the same with missiles, tanks, f-16's. Slowly dismantling Russia's ability to fight. Ukraine is now destroying means of production...IN Russia. That's significant.
Gazprom just fired 60% of their staff. Not good for Russia. 40% of their GDP is from oil and gas. Total collapse soon. 19% interest rate is also crazy. The EU has 3.1% interest rate. I'm actually amazed they are not crashing yet.
To be honest we have been hearing this year after years and nothing happened! They are very patient and unless they get what they want in the Ukraine war, they won’t give up!
Revenues through gas exports are represented in a very missleading manner in this video. Russia lost a massive amount by loosing europe as a marked. And no, there is no short/midterm way to redirect the 200 bnm to someone else. This marked is lost forever and the drill holes maybe shutdown for good in the meantime. Russia lost at min 1/3 of its revenues due to this. Oil is also way harder to export , to way lesser prices than before. Russia still makes money but way less than before. Letting them still sell was a designed feature, not to let prices skyrocket. Their carbon export business is dying, and they know it.
By the way, Russian oil & gas revenues are at record highs. They just became Europe's second largest LNG supplier as well. I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers but you are clearly misinformed.
@DylanIE_ lng capabilities of russia are in no area comparable to pipeline amounts. They didn't need that because they had pipes..and no, they are not at recod highs
@@stdwanze1 The LNG comment was an addition. And yeah, their exports are at highs and theyre pretty much matching their 2019 numbers. Diesel exports are up as well. Russias economy is growing faster than almost every single country in Europe. What is this about dying?
These are very broad assumptions, oil prices are rising. OPEC+ is talking about voluntary production cuts. I don't see what's about to change that we will be going to 60$/barrel in the near future. We have been saying this from 2022 and it didn't happen why should it only now start to work?
Europe seems to be doomed to repeat the same mistakes. During WW2 Hitler took over the entire Europe(minus England and only because tech didnt allow him to cross water easily) purely because of Europes inaction. Thank god Putin, who might have the same ambitions as Hitler, lacks Hitlers knowledge and Hitlers disciplined army, to actually achieve his goals quickly. If you were to replace Putin with Hitler nowdays - the entire Europe would find themselves speaking german(or russian depending on the scenario) by now. I guess old post WW2 slogans of "Never again" in reality should have "unless we cannot be bothered or feel sleepy again" added to it.
Only the start of 2024 you saw the crash starting. Gazprom was reporting losses and interest rates went sky high. 40% of Russia's GDP is oil and gas. Germany was also still getting Russian gas until September 2023 and the price of oil and gas was incredibly high in 2022 and early 2023.
I don't think so. I think it's even worse. We only know the numbers Russia released. The Ruble is still frozen. They froze the Ruble when it started crashing and it's still frozen. If the unfreeze it then it could drop like crazy. They need to put reserve money into the Ruble now, if they've reserve money left. Otherwise Putin needs to get very creative with budget cuts.
India will make more money refining Russian crude, and if they run out of capacity, they might import gasoline from Russia. Meanwhile tankers will go back and forth burning heavy fuel.
Oil extraction costs in Russia are some of the highest in the world, especially in the tundra where if the flow stops the whole well is damaged fairly catastrophically. The $60 dollar level means very little profit for the Kremlin. The main cock up is the complete lack of safety and insurance coverage of the dark fleet over the last 2 years - will Putin pay up if there is a really big oil spill??? Gas to China is fairly small compared to the Nord Stream days and can not be increased, it's maxed out already and I would be amazed if the infrastructure can be maintained properly so expect that to drop over time.
Interesting use of the word "probably" in the video title. TLDR predicted the collapse of the turkish economy last year and that... aged like fine milk.
Most macroeconomic predictions are made in the hope that they don't happen. For instance, the US could have gone into recession because of high inflation. It hasn't. Not because the prediction wasn't accurate but because it was and the Fed acted accordingly to avoid it
@Evemeister12 TLDR also wishfully predicted that the two leading members of BRICS, one of which is the subject of this video, would be at war with each other before the end of last year.
TLDR are establishment channel. They put young people on the desk, but the narrative are always written by old people who are stuck with a Cold War mentality. Hating on Russia is a must in any possible way.
@EarhirX yup. Now we're hoping Trump doesn't go on a tarrif spree because most economists think that will lead the US into a recession, if not a full blown depression.
Great video! But I would like to better understand HOW Russia was able to shift sales to India and China so easily. Infrastructure is not so easy to build. Energy, as I understand, is not so easy to just shift. So HOW did Russieña do this (and India and China).
We've been told that Russia has been short of cash since the sanction bit hard. Russia now demands it's oil be paid in roubles so it can receive dollars and Euro to convert to rouble to pay the gas and oil bills to gazprom etc. this boosts the rouble value artificially. Like same for it's gold and other raw material exports.
Russia's energy revenues are projected to decline in 2025 due to several key factors: their Decline in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Revenue, Decrease in Gas Exports to Europe, Challenges in the Arctic Oil Sector and Impact of Sanctions on Oil and Gas Exports.. But the thing is, Given the uncertain economic conditions and heightened global tensions, I'm considering investing over $800k in stocks. However, I'm uncertain about how to minimise potential risks.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Lisa Grace Myer for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
Appreciate this recommendation, hopefully I can get some insight to where the market is headed and strategies to beat the downtrend with when I hear back from Lisa.
It's pretty much correct, exept : - Brent was in 70 - 75 range during all Q3 and Q4 2024. Jumped to 80+ at the beginning of 2025. - previsions show BRENT could lower under 70 as China's oil demand has most likely peaked late 2023 / 2024, for 2 reasons : 1. Economy stagnating 2. (most important) : electrification (almost 50% of sold car are EV, not thermic) of vehicles + electricity production. China accounts to 50% of oil demand growth in the past 20 years. More over, almost all of natural resources exports are under sanctions (Gazprom deficit,...) or do not bring that much money (uranium,...) Oil is gonna be the fatal one, as oil demand (therefore prices) declines, on top of sanctions. Would really love to help you more on Russian economy, you do an incredible job covering as many places and events, but often lack some penetration in more complex, yet essential for a deep comprehension of the state of russian economy, system and society. Keep going! Would be a pleasure to help
It should be noted that China is demanding lower and lower prices from Russia, to the point where they are having trouble making a profit on it. This is part of the reason that relations between them are cooling.
😂😂😂😂. Russia has grown into the 4th largest economy and now largest in Europe by PPP. Russia is making more money from energy experts than before the invasion. Russia has a 6% debt to GDP ratio compared to upwards of 130% with America. Reality is not a Russian bot. 200,000 Ukranian troops deserting…😂 even though Russia has run out of weapons and been fighting with shovels for over two years. The west’s proxy war(even Boris Johnson calls it this now) on Russia had utterly failed.
The vote form is absolutly diabolic! 3515345 options aligned verticaly i can't even see what im voting and constantly having to scroll up and down... Give 20 options if you want a top 10, or use dropdowns (1st, 2nd, so on) and not this awful radio system. Makes me not want to vote at all! You make such clear and legible graphs and then a form like this?
If this is about a reduced volume I’ll say it’s not a big deal however if it is about increased volume elsewhere, I’m listening. OPEC tries a price war.
Russia's energy revenues are certainly under pressure, and it's fascinating to see how this plays into broader global trade and economic dynamics. As we continue to analyze these shifts, understanding the economic implications is key.
If retail fuel prices do drop in 2025 due to the things you mentioned which have nothing to do with T, he will still claim credit for it and his voters will believe him. US elections are basically determined by opec. He can't run again in 2028, but it could have a big effect on the midterms.
The thing with China is that more than 70% of its electricity generation comes from coal, not gas. Therefore, Russia can only sell a fixed column to Beijing for now, unless Beijing decides to utilise such an opportunity to increase cgt generation
China is buying gas and oil for sanctioned prices. There only a few pipelines to China too. China is not buying the more expensive LNG. You also need special LNG terminals for that by the way.
Trump his plan is a ceasefire with a DMZ for 20 years. Like North and South Korea. Sanctions will not get lifted. Putin refused that deal. Don't think the EU was ever gonna go for that too. Trump threatened Europe already with tariffs if we don't buy oil and gas from the US on truth social. Trump even said in the debate with Harris that the Nord stream never should've been build. You had more chance with Harris ever getting Russian gas back. I must say it's very quiet from the European side about those tariffs and talks with Putin. Absolute crickets. They did have a NATO gathering to get at Russian ships in the Baltics Sea this week, so i think the EU will keep on fighting with or without the US. They've been preparing to supply Ukraine with ammo for 4 years of Trump with Biden. Biden was delivering everything he could and even gave a extra 8 billion to Ukraine in December by executive order. * lifting sanctions will never happen unless Putin gives back everything to Ukraine and even then Trump would put universal tariffs on the EU. You can put that one back in the box for the next 4 years.
Why is it that on your channel it is not yet possible to hear the vocal translation in other languages (so not the uncomfortable subtitles that have been there for years) of what you say? 😐
I cannot see any future where energy sanction imposed by consumer countries could work. The only thing going to happen is that those "novel" first word country continues to buy higer priced "novel" energy from other importers, while the majority of developing nations cannot and will not be a part of the sanction. They will just buy cheaper "evil" russion energy and this in the end only hurts the wests economy, welfare, inflation and industries. There are now so many projects breaking ground in central Asia, where previously Russia kept its influence and wanted China to stay away. Some of them were designed decades ago and were held down by Russians. I think you can guess the outcome. China was never "close" to Russia, but obviously now closer.
They can run out of dollars not rubles, but really thats all that matters. They are still heavily reliant on foreign supplies, especially tech... And you cant buy chips in yuan.
There are triangulations and the Russian mafia, which is among the most powerful in the world. They buy abroad and resell to Russia, evading sanctions. How do you think Western chips end up in Russian weapons and drones?
U realize that most chips are made in China, right? Then they would be put into the electronics Made in China. The "chips" u think are sub 10nm chips built by cutting edge companies like TSMC... No weapon in the world would use them anytime soon. The chips that Russia need to put into their weapons wouldn't be those but decades old chips came out at the time those weapons began their development. There is no chance the West can stop that when Russia has its own forge for those. Same thing with all the Wester militaries actually. Most of the chips on current weapons are not sub 10nm due to concerns.
Chinese and Indian Bitcoin mining is going to demand a large amount of energybfrom Russia. The more US binds itself to Bitcoin the countries with energy export will grow.
If you close of a country completely it will rely on it’s own industry, food and raw materials. The Russians will be restricted to beetroot but that will not kill them.
China is getting more supply from russia with new pipelines and increase the competitiveness differential (lower energy price + cheap labor = you can't beat them in manufacturing at equal budget)
The authors just did not mention that the government's policy is aimed at compensating for oil revenues with industrial production. Moreover, the budget deficit in 2024 is within 1.7% of GDP with a very small external debt. In 2025, the budget deficit is expected to be around 1%. For example, the US budget deficit in the 2024 fiscal year was 6.4% of GDP against 6.2% of GDP the year before. In the European Union, they adhere to the rule of no more than 3% budget deficit per year (although many do not follow it). The budget deficit in India in 2024 is about 5%, China is about 3-4%. That is, a bad year for Russia. This is a dream for most other finance ministries in most countries.
Yeah, because they werenr able to rack up debts. No one is lending them. Goverment bonds are 15% compared to western 4%. But i guess im more sucessful than most silicon valley companys, because i dont habe debt..
@@duncan8437 No, Russia had a budget surplus almost every year until 2022, and a positive trade balance. Moreover, such volumes that in order not to accelerate inflation, the state bought European and American bonds (about 300 billion) with budget revenues and another as much and another somewhere around 400 billion in foreign currency and gold in Russia. You do not need to take government loans if you have a proficiency budget. Example: Russia's budget for 2021 was executed with a surplus of 0.4% of GDP.
I remember when Russia ran out of money, tanks, planes, men in 2022 then again in 2023 finally for real in 2024. Now they’re actually gonna run out in 2025… yeah sure.
Never underestimate the strength of a paper tiger. Authoritarian governments have developed a real talent at projecting power when they have none, projecting wealth where they have little, and projecting national unity where there is actually a lot of division. Sometimes maintaining an illusion is just as powerful as actual strength and wealth. And with modern technology that allows for wider spread propaganda regionally and internationally, it's hard to get a feel for what is truly real and what is nothing but a bluff. These days if you can master the narrative, you can master reality. itself.
We don't really know all the numbers from Russia. The ones that are public don't look good for Russia. Remember.. We took 300 billion of Russian reserve money, so the reserves most be nearly empty.
Even if it fell by 18% it's still more cash than when the war started. Then we have lng by ship imports. India's economy is rising so more Russian gas and oil needed. Eastern Europe remains wedded to Russian fuel while having the cake of EU membership and NATO protection.
Oil price is relatively low. Russian oil may go to 60 after sanction discount, given Brent at 73. As for at the moment of this VDO publishing, Crude is up 0.32% with Brent specifically up 0.18% less than others. Brent is 80. Ural is 75, meaning sanction discount is $5. From that estimate, I think Russia is doing the pessimistic forecast, and anything better than worst will be positive. And yes, this comment is posted, and I checked the data from exchanges, after additional US sanction is announced.
The UK, Europe, Germany and the rest of the world have been too slow to transition to wind and solar energy combined with battery storage and all electric vehicles. Wind and solar energy do not need to be imported and can be produced locally in any country. Battery storage is key for base load power. Europe needs to provide more incentives for homes and businesses to install electric heat pumps and get rid of old polluting gas and oil boilers. The move to electric vehicles will also be sped up. There is no good reason to help fund Putin's war by buying oil, gas and coal from Russia. There is a Climate Crisis making weather events more extreme. Time to switch to renewable energy. The future is renewables. They are safer, cleaner and cheaper than fossil fuels. It is time for governments to end fossil fuels industry subsidies.
Luckily the Eurozone has 30% debt less than the US and could borrow for years need be. Germany even only has 60% debt. More than half than the US. Crazy good! The real big European countries in trouble are Italy and France. High budget deficits on a already high debt. Germany is freaking out at 60% debt,. If they had the bad numbers of Italy they would be in ultimate panic mode. That's more a culture thing. Germany actually has a brighter future than the US. They will never go broke. The US makes debt for growth. The US borrowed 11 trillion dollars in 8 years. Yeah, the growth numbers look nice, but it's all printed money. 11 trillion is half the GDP of the GDP of the EU the US borrowed in 8 years. Germany paid off almost 12% in 8 years. The EU also paid off debt as a whole in 8 years. The EU looks to the future and the US relies on the dollar as reserve currency of the world. That won't last forever.
After being the first country in the world to build them in the 1880s, the UK last year became the first country to shut all its coal fired power stations. Transition is a massive task
UPDATE: Since we wrote and animated this video, the US and its allies have announced further sanctions on Russia's oil industry, which will put even more strain on Russia's oil revenues in the coming years. Thanks for watching, and we hope you enjoyed the video!
Ok thanks
Oh no! More irrelevant sanctions! What will Russia do???
@@TLDRnewsEU Oh no, more sanctions! What will Russia ever do??
hey will you make new version of this video in 2026 and 2027 ??
Sanctions mean that participating countries volunteer to lose money for their populace, businesses, and politicians. This is why they say "Sanctions never work". This is well known to adults that have seen this cycle repeat enough times to catch on.
Young people don't yet understand that while sanctions raise prices, the politicians and businesses make more money at the cost of their people by preventing only their own people from having enough, and requiring that people only buy from them instead of their competition. This is why you're watching a video that tells you that sanctions will work this time, while simultaneously saying that sanctions are on, but not working so they need some more.
Pro Tip: if you want to use a Pipeline to sell your Gas, make sure the Pipeline actualy exists.
Pro Tip (for Germans): You dont want to ruin your economy because of skyrocketing energy prices? Dont let your "allies" bomb your pipeline.
Protect pie-line...good luck.
Ironic that RUSSIA has demostrated, how valnurable these kind of geographic infrastructure is....
( Sweden )
@@MartinLundström-l4v Man ser redan på ditt namn att du är svensk
Fun Fact: Comments about what actually happened to the German Pipeline will be deleted by communist YT.
There one new with China
You should look at profits, not revenue. Profits are what actualy is left for Russia to fund their war with. Revenue tells you very little if you don't know anything about the costs side.
Funky accounting during the time can give you all the losses you want.
Not to mention Russian fossil fuel revenues have dropped by a roughly a third since pre-invasion levels. That will significantly eat into any profit margins.
@@vasanthpragash854 Or con your people into believing ruZZia isnt actually failing
@@GeoEstes It's shown in the video that the revenues are among the biggest they ever had... where did you got that -1/3 ??
@@Winnetou17 He made it up.
The Brotherhood pipeline.. how ironic
well, Cain and Abel were brothers
thats wrong translation, it is called "Friendship" actually.
@@ГалинаФетисова-ю4м That makes it even more ironic
@ not ironic, just sad, because it was built in different time by different people, who wanted peace above all else...
😂
"Who's more influential, Mark Zuckerberg or Putin?"
Are we rating cartoon villains?
Can I nominate Dr. Robotnik?
PINGAS
Putin, Musk, Trump, Bezos, Orbán, Kim, Jinping, Kkomeini are all cartoonish villians whom I'd prefer to see flattened into 2D.
In a violent way. If that wasn't clear you might be one of their supporters and should go back to school.
A man that's started several wars resulting in the deaths of hundreds of thousands over decades of authoritarian rule? Or the creator of Facebook?
Pretty close in terms of influence tbh
Copilot ranked them Putin, Zuckerberg, and Robotnik in influence, with Putin being the most influential.
Imagine saying stuff like this during WW2.
Those ruble revenue figures don't take into account the ruble had dropped 30% against the dollar.
I suspect we'll see some dishonest actors in the comments
It comes free with the subject of russian geopoliticis
Tbf ya’ll have been promising an imminent collapse ‘soon’ for 4 years now.
Most of the comments on this platform are AI bots anyway. So yeah, the disinformation will be rampant.
True. But still less than the amount of finance and investing scam bots.
Typical nato cope
Revenues might have not fallen by that much since 2022, but costs for selling the oil and gas have massively increased for Russia. They can no longer use pipelines, they have to spend money on circumventing sanctions, had to built up a shadow fleet, etc. Gazprom is running massive deficits and firing thousands of people. They also don't estimate that they can survive without subsidies, while in the past they were a cash cow for Russia.
Overall, sanctions can do damage but not prevent anything. Russia has lost hundreds of billions in frozen assets and is running massive deficits for its war while draining its state pension fund to almost zero. They cannot sustain the war. Comparing December 2024 to December 2023, Russia already had to scale back actions in Ukraine. More importantly, in the next 1-2 years they will run out of Soviet equipment, which is 80% of their new equipment.
Where did you get your information?
shadow fleet is not thing that need building. these are regular ships from other countries, they meet with russian oil ship at sea, load oil, mix it with oil from third countries, make docs that this is not russian oil, and profit. you sold legal oil to west
We will see about that
@azmob8909 in terms of Russian equipment losses and economics i would suggest perun. His videos are hour long ppt but he's an experienced defense econonimist. Another good one is Caspian report he paid for satellite fotos of Russian equipment storages and counted them all individually and attempted to assess thier damage.
If they run out of conventional weapons, they are more likely to switch to nuclear weapons. This is not good news.
It's not an energy fall
It's a Special Energy operation
Good one, still I feel bad for the people under the russian federation because there econemy is falling so fast
Bring back the old intro!! This one feels too generic and vlogger-esque!
It is terrible!!
I think is pretty ok
I actually Like it more than the old one
It's meh. I'm not going to revolt over it and I do like the title being there. The music isn't as good as the drone tho.
I didnt like the old one
Three things to add here:
1. The revenue statistic is given in billion rubels by the orks themselves. A statistic by a neutral in $ would look differently.
2. In the short run previously sanktioned or limited suppliers (Irak, Libya) might return to the market.
3. In the long run growing renewables will pressure all fossils.
You all been saying Russia will break for years 😂😂 I love the west desperation. Under heavy sanctions Russia is growing faster than any European economy
Unfortunately you forgot to mention that Russia also imports energy like gasoline because it never developed it's own capacity enough. So a big chunk of its export gains is spent on pricy imports. They even massively increased their imports in 2024 as their refineries were hit by drone strikes. Russia's economy "boost" is completely artificial and will collapse like a house of cards.
Russia imports a small part of gasoline only from Belarus (during harvest season), which gets it from Russian oil. So don't write nonsense!
"As of December 2024, there are more than 30 major oil refineries (refineries) in Russia and about 80 more mini-refineries." Funny bots like to write fictional stories from their voices in their heads and pass it off as reality
Russias biggest issue is keeping refineries going. This is why they banned diesel exports as there is insufficient production inside Russia after breakdowns and drone strikes. Likewise oilfields will be falling apart without spares and tech from the west, three years without maintenance is a long stretch.
The intro does not feel like TLDR.
Fr
It is obnoxious!!
If It's to root against russia they even Go from news to "try to pedict the Future" 💀
They are no longer TLDR...its long , boring, full of adds
@@GunsNRoses87AXLlol what? An 8 minute video is not long, and the ad is only at the end so you can just close the video as soon as they're done with the news, no need to watch the ad.
The fall of Russia's revenues is like my diet: it always starts next year...
Russia already burned through their entire warchest and their inflation is two digits the third year in a row. These sanctions are not meant to break a country from one day to another, but over time, since no developed economy simply ceases to exist.
@@walther2492 wow, arent you a eater of west propaganda, just when they said China has a social credit system which ranks individuals... wow!
trump will in danger russian economy more. with many USA oil companies can replace russin oil.
russia been running an accountant schema. Not only have they used up the 250 billion from the National wealth fund BUT also forced their own banks to lend out money to the military companies which also is 250 billion USD. So yeah russia is very very bankrupt. Used up all saved capital and put all banks in high debt and on top of that oil production is being destroyed. And Usa is about to sanctions all russian oil companies, they will not even be allowed to sell oil at 60 usd.
@@walther2492
Whats the point of sanction when they got the world's factory, the country with the largest population as allies ? Literally the world does not care except for nato
They lost what ?
Overpriced luxury goods from europe ?
Don't compare increased LNG imports to the degrease in gas imports with side-by-side, absolute figures! It's misleading and bad journalism to insinuate that LNG imports come anywhere near close to accounting for the decreased gas imports
Gas dropping to 40 dollars per barrel is a pipe dream. Big oil in America want to make a profit. Demand decreasing is the only way gas prices go down in any meaningful way.
Hearing this since the past 3 years
Because it's the reality for the past 3 years xD ... If you look at the data, it's been on a downtrend since 2022... so to say it's going down year after year would be a truthful report of reality since 2022. That's what the data says. Nobody said it would be zero, but it is decreasing.
@@SHAKINGBELIEFS This video is propaganda
"Russian oil and gas revenues jump 26% in 2024 to $108 billion -- By Reuters -- January 13, 2025"
Baby steps but the screws are turning. It's the same with missiles, tanks, f-16's. Slowly dismantling Russia's ability to fight. Ukraine is now destroying means of production...IN Russia. That's significant.
@@nunya___ This video is propaganda
"Russian oil and gas revenues jump 26% in 2024 to $108 billion -- By Reuters -- January 13, 2025"
Gazprom just fired 60% of their staff. Not good for Russia. 40% of their GDP is from oil and gas. Total collapse soon. 19% interest rate is also crazy. The EU has 3.1% interest rate. I'm actually amazed they are not crashing yet.
To be honest we have been hearing this year after years and nothing happened! They are very patient and unless they get what they want in the Ukraine war, they won’t give up!
Revenues through gas exports are represented in a very missleading manner in this video. Russia lost a massive amount by loosing europe as a marked. And no, there is no short/midterm way to redirect the 200 bnm to someone else. This marked is lost forever and the drill holes maybe shutdown for good in the meantime. Russia lost at min 1/3 of its revenues due to this. Oil is also way harder to export , to way lesser prices than before. Russia still makes money but way less than before. Letting them still sell was a designed feature, not to let prices skyrocket. Their carbon export business is dying, and they know it.
By the way, Russia has record oil & gas revenues this past year. Are you stupid...?
By the way, Russian oil & gas revenues are at record highs. They just became Europe's second largest LNG supplier as well. I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers but you are clearly misinformed.
@DylanIE_ lng capabilities of russia are in no area comparable to pipeline amounts. They didn't need that because they had pipes..and no, they are not at recod highs
As long as rat countries lobby for Russian oil /gas, they will have business
@@stdwanze1 The LNG comment was an addition. And yeah, their exports are at highs and theyre pretty much matching their 2019 numbers. Diesel exports are up as well. Russias economy is growing faster than almost every single country in Europe.
What is this about dying?
These are very broad assumptions, oil prices are rising. OPEC+ is talking about voluntary production cuts. I don't see what's about to change that we will be going to 60$/barrel in the near future. We have been saying this from 2022 and it didn't happen why should it only now start to work?
"Three reasons" ticks of bingo card
This is not a RUclips New channel... this is a Brillant add with 4 mins of news-like content.
Europe seems to be doomed to repeat the same mistakes. During WW2 Hitler took over the entire Europe(minus England and only because tech didnt allow him to cross water easily) purely because of Europes inaction. Thank god Putin, who might have the same ambitions as Hitler, lacks Hitlers knowledge and Hitlers disciplined army, to actually achieve his goals quickly. If you were to replace Putin with Hitler nowdays - the entire Europe would find themselves speaking german(or russian depending on the scenario) by now. I guess old post WW2 slogans of "Never again" in reality should have "unless we cannot be bothered or feel sleepy again" added to it.
didnt they run out years ago
Only the start of 2024 you saw the crash starting. Gazprom was reporting losses and interest rates went sky high. 40% of Russia's GDP is oil and gas. Germany was also still getting Russian gas until September 2023 and the price of oil and gas was incredibly high in 2022 and early 2023.
Please return that guy who did the voiceover before. His voice just fits perfectly with the animations
The Intro music is SOOO distracting now...
It’s just in the intro Jesus
Old into music was better but it's just not that deep
Who cares. Jesus
Tip: Never Kill Your Clients
this is probably going to age so poorly
I don't think so. I think it's even worse. We only know the numbers Russia released. The Ruble is still frozen. They froze the Ruble when it started crashing and it's still frozen. If the unfreeze it then it could drop like crazy. They need to put reserve money into the Ruble now, if they've reserve money left. Otherwise Putin needs to get very creative with budget cuts.
Russian economy is basically on life support, $1 = 100 ₽
@@Joey-ct8bm copium overload is strong with this one, keep coping while your living standards goes down hill peasant
Alright, Dimitri
@daedala if only it was that easy
This is more of a hope than a reality.
Thanks for those valuable videos!! ☺🙌
India will make more money refining Russian crude, and if they run out of capacity, they might import gasoline from Russia. Meanwhile tankers will go back and forth burning heavy fuel.
Didnt people say stuff like this for two years now
if only there was a way in the metric system to say "billion m^3" other than BNm3. (sarcasm)
Oil extraction costs in Russia are some of the highest in the world, especially in the tundra where if the flow stops the whole well is damaged fairly catastrophically. The $60 dollar level means very little profit for the Kremlin. The main cock up is the complete lack of safety and insurance coverage of the dark fleet over the last 2 years - will Putin pay up if there is a really big oil spill??? Gas to China is fairly small compared to the Nord Stream days and can not be increased, it's maxed out already and I would be amazed if the infrastructure can be maintained properly so expect that to drop over time.
Interesting use of the word "probably" in the video title. TLDR predicted the collapse of the turkish economy last year and that... aged like fine milk.
Most macroeconomic predictions are made in the hope that they don't happen. For instance, the US could have gone into recession because of high inflation. It hasn't. Not because the prediction wasn't accurate but because it was and the Fed acted accordingly to avoid it
@Evemeister12 TLDR also wishfully predicted that the two leading members of BRICS, one of which is the subject of this video, would be at war with each other before the end of last year.
TLDR are establishment channel. They put young people on the desk, but the narrative are always written by old people who are stuck with a Cold War mentality. Hating on Russia is a must in any possible way.
@EarhirX yup. Now we're hoping Trump doesn't go on a tarrif spree because most economists think that will lead the US into a recession, if not a full blown depression.
I hate that I read the title as "Will Putin crash out?"
Thanks for your perspective.
What's stopping Turkey from buying and reselling large amounts of gas to Europe through the Bluestream and Turkstream pipelines?
That won't be that much gas. Not enough to finance a war.
Depends, who's more influenciencial? The one that uses more power to influence or the one that has more power to do so?
new intro jingle ? It's not bad ^^ maybe make the music less loud after the title, because it overlaps with the presentator's speach a bit.
Great video! But I would like to better understand HOW Russia was able to shift sales to India and China so easily. Infrastructure is not so easy to build. Energy, as I understand, is not so easy to just shift. So HOW did Russieña do this (and India and China).
We've been told that Russia has been short of cash since the sanction bit hard. Russia now demands it's oil be paid in roubles so it can receive dollars and Euro to convert to rouble to pay the gas and oil bills to gazprom etc. this boosts the rouble value artificially.
Like same for it's gold and other raw material exports.
Russia's energy revenues are projected to decline in 2025 due to several key factors: their Decline in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Revenue, Decrease in Gas Exports to Europe, Challenges in the Arctic Oil Sector and Impact of Sanctions on Oil and Gas Exports.. But the thing is, Given the uncertain economic conditions and heightened global tensions, I'm considering investing over $800k in stocks. However, I'm uncertain about how to minimise potential risks.
Consider hiring financial advisors or tax experts. They can provide specialised knowledge and help you navigate complex financial decisions.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
That's quite impressive! Can you share more information about your financial advisor?
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Lisa Grace Myer for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
Appreciate this recommendation, hopefully I can get some insight to where the market is headed and strategies to beat the downtrend with when I hear back from Lisa.
What i dont understand is that if russia is going under so much pressure financially and militarily, why does Ukraine keep struggling?!
i would appreciate it if these prediction type videos would list ALL the wrong predictions re russia.
It's pretty much correct, exept :
- Brent was in 70 - 75 range during all Q3 and Q4 2024. Jumped to 80+ at the beginning of 2025.
- previsions show BRENT could lower under 70 as China's oil demand has most likely peaked late 2023 / 2024, for 2 reasons :
1. Economy stagnating
2. (most important) : electrification (almost 50% of sold car are EV, not thermic) of vehicles + electricity production.
China accounts to 50% of oil demand growth in the past 20 years.
More over, almost all of natural resources exports are under sanctions (Gazprom deficit,...) or do not bring that much money (uranium,...)
Oil is gonna be the fatal one, as oil demand (therefore prices) declines, on top of sanctions.
Would really love to help you more on Russian economy, you do an incredible job covering as many places and events, but often lack some penetration in more complex, yet essential for a deep comprehension of the state of russian economy, system and society.
Keep going!
Would be a pleasure to help
It should be noted that China is demanding lower and lower prices from Russia, to the point where they are having trouble making a profit on it. This is part of the reason that relations between them are cooling.
Muy buena información gracias saludos desde Austin Texas
The Russian bots are going crazy in the comments today, so it must mean this really does hurt Russia,
NAFO warrior😂
You keep assuring us that this time sanctions will cripple Russia economy! Keep promising
😂😂😂😂. Russia has grown into the 4th largest economy and now largest in Europe by PPP. Russia is making more money from energy experts than before the invasion. Russia has a 6% debt to GDP ratio compared to upwards of 130% with America.
Reality is not a Russian bot. 200,000 Ukranian troops deserting…😂 even though Russia has run out of weapons and been fighting with shovels for over two years. The west’s proxy war(even Boris Johnson calls it this now) on Russia had utterly failed.
Only a bot would repeat the same nonsense for 3 years and not learn from it. 😂
A quick glance at the comments to my comment kinda proves my point to be honest.
The vote form is absolutly diabolic! 3515345 options aligned verticaly i can't even see what im voting and constantly having to scroll up and down...
Give 20 options if you want a top 10, or use dropdowns (1st, 2nd, so on) and not this awful radio system. Makes me not want to vote at all! You make such clear and legible graphs and then a form like this?
I don’t know who needs to hear this, but ebook titled The Censored Guide to Wealth might be the answer you’re looking for
Wow sign me up. But l would prefer the uncensored version.
how come you put a mirrored image of Putin on the thumbnail again 😂
If this is about a reduced volume I’ll say it’s not a big deal however if it is about increased volume elsewhere, I’m listening. OPEC tries a price war.
Worryingly for Russia, but also for many other oil-producing countries. With China's contraction and USA's tariffs, a world recession looms close.
Russia's energy revenues are certainly under pressure, and it's fascinating to see how this plays into broader global trade and economic dynamics. As we continue to analyze these shifts, understanding the economic implications is key.
If I remember correctly it's year eleven of " Russia will run out of cash, because of sanctions" 😂😂😂😂 (same with "China collapsing " videos 😂)
If retail fuel prices do drop in 2025 due to the things you mentioned which have nothing to do with T, he will still claim credit for it and his voters will believe him. US elections are basically determined by opec. He can't run again in 2028, but it could have a big effect on the midterms.
The thing with China is that more than 70% of its electricity generation comes from coal, not gas. Therefore, Russia can only sell a fixed column to Beijing for now, unless Beijing decides to utilise such an opportunity to increase cgt generation
China is buying gas and oil for sanctioned prices. There only a few pipelines to China too. China is not buying the more expensive LNG. You also need special LNG terminals for that by the way.
Ruxx is a serious problem. 👎🏼
I could listen to you read the news on radio 4. I've gone off radio 4 to be fair, but your voice would be effective on 'the world tonight'.
Yanno, the music you use for the influential people ad would make good intro music in general
Its very good
😊😊😮🎉🎉🎉j m💸🤩⛏️😂🚓🇿🇼 0:04
Would have been nice to see a European reporting on European affairs for a change
Putin doesn't seens to be worry about you statistic for 2025
Russians will remind him later
No mention of the West sanctioning Russia's shadow fleet. You missed a key factor TLDR.
Depends on if a peace deal will be made as sanctions could be lifted so the eu can get cheap energy again
Trump his plan is a ceasefire with a DMZ for 20 years. Like North and South Korea. Sanctions will not get lifted. Putin refused that deal. Don't think the EU was ever gonna go for that too.
Trump threatened Europe already with tariffs if we don't buy oil and gas from the US on truth social. Trump even said in the debate with Harris that the Nord stream never should've been build. You had more chance with Harris ever getting Russian gas back.
I must say it's very quiet from the European side about those tariffs and talks with Putin. Absolute crickets. They did have a NATO gathering to get at Russian ships in the Baltics Sea this week, so i think the EU will keep on fighting with or without the US. They've been preparing to supply Ukraine with ammo for 4 years of Trump with Biden.
Biden was delivering everything he could and even gave a extra 8 billion to Ukraine in December by executive order.
* lifting sanctions will never happen unless Putin gives back everything to Ukraine and even then Trump would put universal tariffs on the EU. You can put that one back in the box for the next 4 years.
Why is it that on your channel it is not yet possible to hear the vocal translation in other languages (so not the uncomfortable subtitles that have been there for years) of what you say? 😐
I cannot see any future where energy sanction imposed by consumer countries could work. The only thing going to happen is that those "novel" first word country continues to buy higer priced "novel" energy from other importers, while the majority of developing nations cannot and will not be a part of the sanction. They will just buy cheaper "evil" russion energy and this in the end only hurts the wests economy, welfare, inflation and industries.
There are now so many projects breaking ground in central Asia, where previously Russia kept its influence and wanted China to stay away. Some of them were designed decades ago and were held down by Russians. I think you can guess the outcome. China was never "close" to Russia, but obviously now closer.
Also china and india are now not letting russian ships dock with petrolium products
“Do you know who the two biggest financial backers of green initiatives are? Saudi Arabia and Russia.” -Monty in Landman
Btw., could you do more videos about climate politics?
Energy prices are likely to go down
The new intro feels fresh and modern, do not change it
They can run out of dollars not rubles, but really thats all that matters.
They are still heavily reliant on foreign supplies, especially tech... And you cant buy chips in yuan.
There are triangulations and the Russian mafia, which is among the most powerful in the world. They buy abroad and resell to Russia, evading sanctions. How do you think Western chips end up in Russian weapons and drones?
Yuan is Chinese currency and they have their own chips so what will stop them
U realize that most chips are made in China, right?
Then they would be put into the electronics Made in China.
The "chips" u think are sub 10nm chips built by cutting edge companies like TSMC... No weapon in the world would use them anytime soon.
The chips that Russia need to put into their weapons wouldn't be those but decades old chips came out at the time those weapons began their development. There is no chance the West can stop that when Russia has its own forge for those.
Same thing with all the Wester militaries actually. Most of the chips on current weapons are not sub 10nm due to concerns.
Chinese and Indian Bitcoin mining is going to demand a large amount of energybfrom Russia. The more US binds itself to Bitcoin the countries with energy export will grow.
If you close of a country completely it will rely on it’s own industry, food and raw materials. The Russians will be restricted to beetroot but that will not kill them.
China is getting more supply from russia with new pipelines and increase the competitiveness differential (lower energy price + cheap labor = you can't beat them in manufacturing at equal budget)
Not HIS Billions.
To be safe she used the word (probably )
hey will you make new version of this video in 2026 and 2027 ??
The authors just did not mention that the government's policy is aimed at compensating for oil revenues with industrial production.
Moreover, the budget deficit in 2024 is within 1.7% of GDP with a very small external debt. In 2025, the budget deficit is expected to be around 1%.
For example, the US budget deficit in the 2024 fiscal year was 6.4% of GDP against 6.2% of GDP the year before.
In the European Union, they adhere to the rule of no more than 3% budget deficit per year (although many do not follow it).
The budget deficit in India in 2024 is about 5%, China is about 3-4%.
That is, a bad year for Russia. This is a dream for most other finance ministries in most countries.
Yeah, because they werenr able to rack up debts. No one is lending them. Goverment bonds are 15% compared to western 4%. But i guess im more sucessful than most silicon valley companys, because i dont habe debt..
@@duncan8437 No, Russia had a budget surplus almost every year until 2022, and a positive trade balance. Moreover, such volumes that in order not to accelerate inflation, the state bought European and American bonds (about 300 billion) with budget revenues and another as much and another somewhere around 400 billion in foreign currency and gold in Russia. You do not need to take government loans if you have a proficiency budget. Example: Russia's budget for 2021 was executed with a surplus of 0.4% of GDP.
Some much for limiting greenhouse emissions 😒
Tech will keep on techin.
Ooh, ofc! Yes, again! Shovels, no?
What about the shadow fleet sanctions? It's point 4 why RU will lose income
What economic crisis in China?
Do we love Russia, or do we see Russia as an existential threat to freedom...
Yep, heard this one before. And all this as the gas prices are rising again. Yeah, sure buddy.
I remember when Russia ran out of money, tanks, planes, men in 2022 then again in 2023 finally for real in 2024. Now they’re actually gonna run out in 2025… yeah sure.
russia has not gain more territory in ukraine since first half of 2022
Brilliant ads are getting so annoying
Same shit since years ..
Putin must run out of breath
Never underestimate the strength of a paper tiger. Authoritarian governments have developed a real talent at projecting power when they have none, projecting wealth where they have little, and projecting national unity where there is actually a lot of division. Sometimes maintaining an illusion is just as powerful as actual strength and wealth. And with modern technology that allows for wider spread propaganda regionally and internationally, it's hard to get a feel for what is truly real and what is nothing but a bluff. These days if you can master the narrative, you can master reality. itself.
We don't really know all the numbers from Russia. The ones that are public don't look good for Russia. Remember.. We took 300 billion of Russian reserve money, so the reserves most be nearly empty.
ironic, coming from the empty west.
Even if it fell by 18% it's still more cash than when the war started. Then we have lng by ship imports. India's economy is rising so more Russian gas and oil needed. Eastern Europe remains wedded to Russian fuel while having the cake of EU membership and NATO protection.
Out of cash and men.
Oil price is relatively low.
Russian oil may go to 60 after sanction discount, given Brent at 73.
As for at the moment of this VDO publishing, Crude is up 0.32% with Brent specifically up 0.18% less than others. Brent is 80. Ural is 75, meaning sanction discount is $5. From that estimate, I think Russia is doing the pessimistic forecast, and anything better than worst will be positive.
And yes, this comment is posted, and I checked the data from exchanges, after additional US sanction is announced.
I hate Putin
It's a shame, he only says good things about you.
OK, congrats.
@@joemann2178The people generally hate leaders. The leaders generally hate governments. Nothing new here.
@ You are obviously talking about Western leaders.
I hate Biden 🤣
The UK, Europe, Germany and the rest of the world have been too slow to transition to wind and solar energy combined with battery storage and all electric vehicles. Wind and solar energy do not need to be imported and can be produced locally in any country. Battery storage is key for base load power.
Europe needs to provide more incentives for homes and businesses to install electric heat pumps and get rid of old polluting gas and oil boilers. The move to electric vehicles will also be sped up. There is no good reason to help fund Putin's war by buying oil, gas and coal from Russia. There is a Climate Crisis making weather events more extreme. Time to switch to renewable energy. The future is renewables. They are safer, cleaner and cheaper than fossil fuels. It is time for governments to end fossil fuels industry subsidies.
Luckily the Eurozone has 30% debt less than the US and could borrow for years need be. Germany even only has 60% debt. More than half than the US. Crazy good!
The real big European countries in trouble are Italy and France. High budget deficits on a already high debt.
Germany is freaking out at 60% debt,. If they had the bad numbers of Italy they would be in ultimate panic mode. That's more a culture thing. Germany actually has a brighter future than the US. They will never go broke. The US makes debt for growth. The US borrowed 11 trillion dollars in 8 years. Yeah, the growth numbers look nice, but it's all printed money.
11 trillion is half the GDP of the GDP of the EU the US borrowed in 8 years. Germany paid off almost 12% in 8 years. The EU also paid off debt as a whole in 8 years.
The EU looks to the future and the US relies on the dollar as reserve currency of the world. That won't last forever.
After being the first country in the world to build them in the 1880s, the UK last year became the first country to shut all its coal fired power stations. Transition is a massive task
Third of Brits visited Food Bánk in the past 24 months😮😮
Run out of money.. and ammo and manpower and weapons and bla bla bla...
What evidence for the claim that Russia's energy income has held up remarkably well? The video is hearsay from non experts.
The fact Russia didn't collapse yet with 40% of their GDP coming from oil and gas.
Less options? 😢