June is still too early for the first rate cut: Scotiabank
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- Опубликовано: 20 сен 2024
- As Canada’s inflation cools in April Jean-François Perrault, senior vice-president and chief economist at Scotiabank says there is a stronger case to cut in July than June, and that we should tread very carefully onwards.
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Rate cuts commence in June 2024, taking 6-8 months to complete. A potential crash, if any, might occur by March 2025. The soft landing narrative is gaining traction, making this big recession everyone is calling for less likely. With $1 million from a business sale, I'm seeking profitable investment opportunities for the next 3 years.
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why I still think everything is super expensive??? Don't cut the interest rates!!!
Inflation is still positive, meaning prices are still going up, just at a slower rate (2.7%). Target inflation rate should always be a small but positive number to promote current day spending to stimulate the economy, otherwise people would just hold on to their money and delay spending to get a better deal that is always ‘ tomorrow’ rather than ‘today’. Ultimately, what i am trying to say is the BoC isnt looking to make things less expensive, they are trying to control the rate at which they increase to a level that in manageable
Negative housing prices cannot go down yet. The real issue to grapple a lot of people aren’t understanding is productivity. First off interest comes down the realitors of Canada and CMA,CRA all project housing prices to GO UP roughly 10-15% and we are predicting housing to go up roughly 60% over the next 5-8 years. So if you can’t afford a house a big drop in interest right now will absolutely make you never afford a house again and potentially make Canada a rental nation people forget 33% of homes since 2021/2022 were Coporate/Private business buyers. Look at BlackRock in the US buying everything. We have land magically catching on fire so we can rezone it. The click there is a lot of people are sitting on money and will spend when rates drop to make their move.
The real issue is productivity, housing is housing and a price drop in housing would mean 66% of the country lost tens of thousands on their investments which can’t happen.
Now productivity is the key issue, it’s costing us MORE to produce the same amount of goods as it takes us longer. Which keeps goods priced higher. What we really need is federal documentation to stop price gouging. The other issue is due to the simple fact Canadians are sitting at home on the system skilled Canadians who resigned during covid due to pay. As it didn’t make sense to have a trade go to school for 10 years and your only making 10-20 more then a teenager working at Tim Hortons and that’s another social issue is Canadians settling in entry level jobs made for teenagers and they expect to have a house and car that’s unreasonable and lazy thinking as no one wants to better their position everyone wants a hand out.
We give grants and pay for training of “under represented” groups which makes business want to hire immigrants as it’s cheaper.
This all paved the way for massive investments in A.I and Robotics to replace Canadians in factory settings as we have now without a doubt become inefficient.
Really the best fix going forward would be to end EI implement UBI and tackle the price of goods. This would stimulate the economy and now there is no other way to get money other then working. Everyone gets your UBI(CERb was a trial) thus pays for your food. You still have to work and find your own way to pay for housing. Which is fair we aren’t giving everyone hand outs because we’ll look where we are.
Productivity is the big one holding us back.
What he's really saying is they want to wait for the Fed to cut first.
As soon as Bank of Canada cuts, inflation spikes and the dollar sinks until it becomes the new Peso.
By design seemingly.
that makes more sense to me compared with RBC
They won't lower the interest rates until most of the mortgage rates sign onto the higher interest rates....the government wants their money.
you are clearly don t understand the basic knowledge of economy.
@@toantang5483 i really doubt u do
Cut rate? With this burning hot economy? Why? We need to keep hiking to at least 10% to 15% before we hold it high indefinitely
What burning hot economy? Gdp is in the gutter
Burning hot economy? Unemployment is over 6% and productivity is way down. Dont confuse inflation for growth. GDP per capital has been negative for almost 2 years. The only reason GDP has been borderline positive has been immigration. Without it, this ‘burning hot economy’ would already have been in a lengthy recession.
Why cut rate when inflation is still high. Weak loonie vs USD will keep inflation higher. BoC needs to wait for the Fed next move.
Inflation is not high at all....Shelter inflation, insurance is what keeping inflation over 1.5 %
BoC made a mistake of too late to increase in 2021-22. Now its too late to decrease. Tons of job losses i see accross the board which is offset by smaller parttime job numbers. Not cool.
I think it's time for the financial institutions to let go the low interest rate addict economists and CEOs and hire the folks who understand the market and have feets on the ground.
Strong job report, 50k part time and 40k of second jobs to survive 😂
Yup. Seasonal pt 🤪
Not to mention the auto sector has laid off 5,000 workers for 2 years. Spinoff jobs are seven to every one job. So 40,000 jobs lost potentially .
26 000 of full time were public service jobs...Makes me think these people comment just for commenting...
@@MM-xg2td do public jobs really indicate economy is doing well?
@@Mehmed317 No it does not...A good economy would be creation of thousands of jobs in the private sector.
No cuts!
I agree.... still far too soon for rate cuts, keep your Powder DRY !
Too early to cut.
Boc needs to raise or at least hold them until 2025
Raise for what?
I don't think a hold is needed. But I think no cuts until 2025 would benefit canada in the long run.
If they cut to soon, we will see inflation rise rapidly and rates increase again by Christmas. They should just leave them and look at small slow cuts in the fall.
Nothing will increase rapidly with 0.25% cut
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Wow that's huge, how do you make that much monthly?
I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??
I will advise you stop trading on your own if you keep losing. And i don't trade on my own anymore, I always required help and assistance
She's a licensed broker here in the states.
😱Sounds familiar, I have heard her names on several occasions.. And both her success stories on wall street journey!
I'm surprised that this name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of her clients testimony on CNBC news last week.
How does this guy even do this job? He can't even make a decision.
Stupidness. Rates will be 10% 2nd half of 2025. No mistake!
He actually mentioned job report wow
Come on real numbers
Cuts since 2022
Change in interest rates take 4 to 6 months to filter through the economy. Creating a lot of part time low wage jobs is not positive. New housing starts are at the lowest they have been, productivity is down. How much do you want to slow the real value of the economy. Time to cut 50 basis points in June and then one other cut in October, but nothing further until these filter through assuming everything else remains the same.
They should have cut in December. They screwed up again
Yep
💸
Increase rates
I want wage growth. Haven’t seen much in a number of years around these parts
Not desperate enough
Desperation in Canada usually comes with the dawn out of nowhere.
This guy is out of touch