I just wanted to ask Sven to analyze TORM after seeing the bald investor talking about it. And then here is this video, which highlights Sven's extraordinary medium thought-reading skills. Thanks Sven, great video as always!
I went to Peiraus with my dad one day, he has a friend from an old shipping family of Chios. This guy doesn’t do shipping but his cousin is a famous shipowner. So I asked him “what does this guy do so successfully?”. And he replied that every week he calls all the shipyards in Southeast Asia and just asks them how busy they are. That’s it, he can even ask the janitor of the shipyard and get a fair answer. When he knows that they are not busy at all, he orders them to build a ship. 90% of the time he’s managed to sell the ship while building. For at least 3x his initial investment.
Shipping is a great business for retail investors. No reason to analyze demand expect where it is now. Its so unpredictable for future. Analyzing supply is fairly straight forward. Long term follows the supply, short term follows the demand. Volatility is high. Companies are easy to analyze with simple structures. Companies are so small that bigger investors have hard time getting out of equity when they want. What more can you ask as a small private investor?
The main differences between a product tanker and a crude oil tanker lie in their design, cargo type, and operational use: 1. Cargo Type: Product Tanker: These tankers are designed to carry refined petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other chemicals. They typically transport products that have undergone refining processes and may include various grades of oil. Crude Oil Tanker: These vessels are specifically designed to transport unrefined crude oil from extraction sites to refineries. The cargo is typically raw and has not been processed. 2. Design and Construction: Product Tanker: Product tankers often have multiple cargo tanks to segregate different types of refined products, allowing them to carry several types of cargo simultaneously. They are generally smaller than crude oil tankers and have a more complex piping system to manage different products. Crude Oil Tanker: Crude oil tankers are usually larger, with fewer but bigger cargo tanks. They are built to handle the high viscosity and corrosive nature of crude oil. The design focuses on maximizing cargo capacity. 3. Operational Use: Product Tanker: These vessels typically operate in shorter routes and are more involved in coastal shipping and regional markets. They may also serve as shuttle tankers, delivering products to various ports. Crude Oil Tanker: Crude oil tankers often operate on long-haul routes, transporting crude oil from oil-producing regions (like the Middle East or North America) to refineries located in different parts of the world. 4. Size: Product Tanker: Generally smaller than crude oil tankers, with sizes ranging from 5,000 to 60,000 deadweight tons (DWT). Crude Oil Tanker: These are larger vessels, with sizes ranging from 50,000 DWT to over 500,000 DWT (in the case of Very Large Crude Carriers, or VLCCs). Summary In summary, product tankers are designed for transporting refined petroleum products and often have multiple tanks for different cargoes, while crude oil tankers are built for transporting unrefined crude oil, usually in larger quantities and with fewer cargo compartments.
ships aren't being built, and older ships are being scrapped. ships too expensive to build is slowing new build rate. i think the sector is interesting.
I have to say that I look forward to your daily videos. Good stock selection for review. Torm happen to be one stock I bought some time back for which I could have benefited from such a review.
DAC iz excellent. They will make 1B$ in the next 2-3 years. After that it would be better to sell majority of fleet and go to treasuries for next a few years because there will be so many containerships in the world fleet that it would be imposible to sail with any profit. And they will not do that and that is why price is so low
@HrvojeVukosav-qv8uu DAC is cheap because people don't understand how the tariffs and geopolitical disruptions work! Trump's tariffs are particularly bad for Maersk or Zim, but perfect for GSL or DAC because of different business model.
Saw an interview the other day Rick Rule he’s sitting on the sidelines now like Buffett in cash but said the oil industry right now is looking attractive.
Hello Sven, great analysis! Would be really great, if you could look into Cosco, which has also a nice dividend and OWNS port infrastructure all over the world (from Peru, to Rotterdam and Hamburg) and enjoys the next 100 years heavy political and economical tailwinds from China.....from my point of view, it is like owning a part of the tax on Chinese exports.... :) thx!
I am a stng investor which is also a clean tanker company. Keep in mind they transport products (diesel kerosene etc.) not crude oil. I got in during COVID i think now is a bit to late in the cycle to get in. Like sven always says you need to get in when things look ugly.
Thanks Sven. I have small positions in a few other shippers: KNOP and SBLK and found this very helpful to understand the general risks in the shipping sector. I have stayed away from TORM because it seemed to be good of a div to be true. You did a great concise job explaining why someone like Howard Marks is heavily invested due to a debt play that went BK. No one else covered that info. I really appreciate your awesome work and guidance.
Howard Marks always buys debt, Oaktree deals in buying debt securities, not stocks, so at the time of buying Torm debt they knew what Torm future value would be.
Thank you very much for your analysis about this stock. This is much more informative than many other analyses which basically explain the numbers in the hindsight.
Thank you Sven! You give us value always an easy understandable way! I really appreciate it! I made my “bet” on ZIM, fortunately I timed well the market but I found out that it was a risky move. Thank you for explaining the business!
Thanks Sven! Btw, Danaos has a better business model and has shown to be more shareholder friendly (despite being Greek lol). They are building book value instead of paying huge dividends and recently entered the dry bulk industry, which should be less supplied and more profitable over next 3 years. Pabrai holds a small position of it. Star Bulk Carriers has also better risk/reward. But yeah, shitty industry 😂
You made mistake TORM is product tanker but you compare it with dirty tankers rates. Make more videos like this which stocks you think are bad then i will buy them. Bought small position in torm 60 shares.
Surprised UPS hasn’t been suggested. UPS and TROW have 10 percent CAGR and might could be a 10% cost on yield on 10 years. UPS looks to be on the bottom of a cycle.
Sven, i respect your view but I don’t agree that it was Marks’ biggest mistake as we don’t know what he paid for the debt. In his frequent newsletters he often talks about finding asymmetric investments. One where they can’t lose too much but can make much more. I think this may be a case. Oaktree bought the debt at a big discount, knowing the underlying assets (the ships ) were worth more AND they could operate them in an up market cycle if need be. It turned out they did get a an up cycle and have done well out of it.
the debt was more than $2 billion, they got half of that, and trust me, it is never the plan to operate a business when it goes bust if you are a bond holder. But yes, it might not be a mistake, just doing business for him, but it sounds better as a title, no?
hey sven! please take a look at alchool stocks since they are at 10 years lows from the link of cancer to consumption of alchool and consumer trends in gen z, i recently took a position in brown forman and ambev
@@Value-Investing thanks for the reply ! you looked at them except brown forman which doesn't have accounting shananigans, strong growing brands and family owned which you could see both ways but they have a good track record
As an investment enthusiast, I often wonder how top-level investors are able to become millionaires through investing. I have a significant amount of capital to start with, but I'm unsure about the strategies and direction I should take to help me generate substantial profits like some people are this season
I’m not in a position to offer financial advice, but given the significant amount of capital you're working with, it would be wise to consult a financial advisor who can guide you in developing a strategy tailored to your goals and risk tolerance. The truth is, the role of an investment advisor can often be overlooked but should never be underestimated. After facing a significant portfolio loss in 2020 during the COVID pandemic while trying to manage my investments on my own, I decided to reach out to an investment advisor. At that time, I had about $126K left in my portfolio. Now, without having to lift a finger, I'm semi-retired, working only 7.5 hours a week, and I'm just 15% short of my $1 million retirement goal thanks to my subsequent investments
My CFA is Gabriel Alberto William, a renowned figure in his line of work. I recommend researching his credentials further. He has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did
I looked for the name online and found his page. I would say he really has an impressive background in investing, Thanks for the help and I will emailed him rightaway and make inquiries
God no, I dropped that after six months and managements excuse making out of nowhere on mexican imports and their inability to judge when the underlying commodity price drop would stabilise. I've found a way better more stable SaaS company in Cerillion which is less volatile and has an actual small moat.
@@giomf Small market cap with high ROCE and a lot of room to grow in a niche market with sticky customers and lots of high margin recurring revenue that mostly goes down to net income.
Used to think investors lose out amid inflation, meanwhile some make profits. I also thought folks went out of business during the great depression, but some went into business. Bottom line, there's always recession for some folks, while others amass wealth gains.
Right, a lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their emotions, no offense. I remember some years back, amid covid-outbreak, I needed a good boost to grow my savings, hence researched for advisors and thankfully, I came across someone of utmost qualifications. Helped a lot in growing my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $350k to approx. $1m as of today.
how to put my money to work has been my daily thought, did my research and most suggestions pointed at the stock market, the thing is i'm an absolute newb... would you mind sharing info of the professional guiding you please?
I've shuffled through a few advisors in the past, but settled with Amy Lea Kohlert. You'd most likely find her basic info on the internet, she's well established with over two decades of experience.
You were saying exactly the same with ZIM stock, when it was at 6 USD how extremely dangerous it was and that it may go bankrupt etc. That is why I did not buy more of it and sold it with just a tiny profit of 10%. A few months later, after your great analysis, ZIM went to 27 USD. Thank you
First, take responsibility for yourself. Second, just because Risk hadn’t materialize doesnt mean it wasnt there. Same as MicroStrategy / Bitcoin, Nvidia or whatever. Yeah there is return but there is also risk.
Jesus bro - blaming others for your bad decision … take some responsibility ….like he said in the video - high risk high reward - timing is everything in shipping
I just wanted to ask Sven to analyze TORM after seeing the bald investor talking about it. And then here is this video, which highlights Sven's extraordinary medium thought-reading skills. Thanks Sven, great video as always!
Bald investor just follows the script to generate videos. Often it is a very shallow analysis
@@stanislavgritciuk337 Sven is different, of course. 😂
I went to Peiraus with my dad one day, he has a friend from an old shipping family of Chios. This guy doesn’t do shipping but his cousin is a famous shipowner. So I asked him “what does this guy do so successfully?”. And he replied that every week he calls all the shipyards in Southeast Asia and just asks them how busy they are. That’s it, he can even ask the janitor of the shipyard and get a fair answer. When he knows that they are not busy at all, he orders them to build a ship. 90% of the time he’s managed to sell the ship while building. For at least 3x his initial investment.
Valuing Torm with showing dirty tanker rates, he really knows the stock. 😂
Shipping is a great business for retail investors. No reason to analyze demand expect where it is now. Its so unpredictable for future. Analyzing supply is fairly straight forward. Long term follows the supply, short term follows the demand. Volatility is high. Companies are easy to analyze with simple structures. Companies are so small that bigger investors have hard time getting out of equity when they want. What more can you ask as a small private investor?
Torm is not a crude ("dirty") tanker company, but a product tanker company (diesel etc.). Different supply-demand dynamics and rates.
thanks for the input but still the same shipping market forces apply!
Nop
The main differences between a product tanker and a crude oil tanker lie in their design, cargo type, and operational use:
1. Cargo Type:
Product Tanker: These tankers are designed to carry refined petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other chemicals. They typically transport products that have undergone refining processes and may include various grades of oil.
Crude Oil Tanker: These vessels are specifically designed to transport unrefined crude oil from extraction sites to refineries. The cargo is typically raw and has not been processed.
2. Design and Construction:
Product Tanker: Product tankers often have multiple cargo tanks to segregate different types of refined products, allowing them to carry several types of cargo simultaneously. They are generally smaller than crude oil tankers and have a more complex piping system to manage different products.
Crude Oil Tanker: Crude oil tankers are usually larger, with fewer but bigger cargo tanks. They are built to handle the high viscosity and corrosive nature of crude oil. The design focuses on maximizing cargo capacity.
3. Operational Use:
Product Tanker: These vessels typically operate in shorter routes and are more involved in coastal shipping and regional markets. They may also serve as shuttle tankers, delivering products to various ports.
Crude Oil Tanker: Crude oil tankers often operate on long-haul routes, transporting crude oil from oil-producing regions (like the Middle East or North America) to refineries located in different parts of the world.
4. Size:
Product Tanker: Generally smaller than crude oil tankers, with sizes ranging from 5,000 to 60,000 deadweight tons (DWT).
Crude Oil Tanker: These are larger vessels, with sizes ranging from 50,000 DWT to over 500,000 DWT (in the case of Very Large Crude Carriers, or VLCCs).
Summary
In summary, product tankers are designed for transporting refined petroleum products and often have multiple tanks for different cargoes, while crude oil tankers are built for transporting unrefined crude oil, usually in larger quantities and with fewer cargo compartments.
@@Value-InvestingThat's not correct. Putting a minimum of expertise into your videos would greatly help...
ships aren't being built, and older ships are being scrapped. ships too expensive to build is slowing new build rate. i think the sector is interesting.
I saw the thumbnail and immediately thought, "But isn't Howard a distressed debt guy?"
Thanks Sven, very enlightening.
I have to say that I look forward to your daily videos. Good stock selection for review. Torm happen to be one stock I bought some time back for which I could have benefited from such a review.
Sven, please can you also do a little analysis on DAC, the recent purchase of M. Pabrai? Thanks
I'll check it out
DAC iz excellent. They will make 1B$ in the next 2-3 years. After that it would be better to sell majority of fleet and go to treasuries for next a few years because there will be so many containerships in the world fleet that it would be imposible to sail with any profit. And they will not do that and that is why price is so low
@HrvojeVukosav-qv8uu DAC is cheap because people don't understand how the tariffs and geopolitical disruptions work! Trump's tariffs are particularly bad for Maersk or Zim, but perfect for GSL or DAC because of different business model.
Saw an interview the other day Rick Rule he’s sitting on the sidelines now like Buffett in cash but said the oil industry right now is looking attractive.
Thanks Sven. I now know not to touch shipping companies at all
A video on Melexis NV would be great
Thanks for the video. What about Lockheed Martin?
Hello Sven, great analysis! Would be really great, if you could look into Cosco, which has also a nice dividend and OWNS port infrastructure all over the world (from Peru, to Rotterdam and Hamburg) and enjoys the next 100 years heavy political and economical tailwinds from China.....from my point of view, it is like owning a part of the tax on Chinese exports.... :) thx!
I am a stng investor which is also a clean tanker company. Keep in mind they transport products (diesel kerosene etc.) not crude oil. I got in during COVID i think now is a bit to late in the cycle to get in. Like sven always says you need to get in when things look ugly.
Oaktree was not the original creditor. They bought the debt for pennies per dollar and swapped it to equity.
Like always with Sven's mostly useless videos, the useful information is in the comments.
Dear Sven, I believe that for a shipping company Safe Bulks is more interesting.
Even if the yield is "just" 5,80 % :D
Excellent analysis. Excellently puts into context the biggest picture for the given yield. Market is betting on a mean reversion for company profits.
Thanks Sven. I have small positions in a few other shippers: KNOP and SBLK and found this very helpful to understand the general risks in the shipping sector. I have stayed away from TORM because it seemed to be good of a div to be true. You did a great concise job explaining why someone like Howard Marks is heavily invested due to a debt play that went BK. No one else covered that info. I really appreciate your awesome work and guidance.
Howard Marks always buys debt, Oaktree deals in buying debt securities, not stocks, so at the time of buying Torm debt they knew what Torm future value would be.
Great analysis! Thank you
Thank you very much for your analysis about this stock. This is much more informative than many other analyses which basically explain the numbers in the hindsight.
Thank you Sven!
You give us value always an easy understandable way! I really appreciate it!
I made my “bet” on ZIM, fortunately I timed well the market but I found out that it was a risky move.
Thank you for explaining the business!
Thanks Sven! Btw, Danaos has a better business model and has shown to be more shareholder friendly (despite being Greek lol). They are building book value instead of paying huge dividends and recently entered the dry bulk industry, which should be less supplied and more profitable over next 3 years. Pabrai holds a small position of it. Star Bulk Carriers has also better risk/reward. But yeah, shitty industry 😂
Could you maybe take a look at the undervalued German stocks 1&1 Drillisch AG and Aumann AG?
You made mistake TORM is product tanker but you compare it with dirty tankers rates.
Make more videos like this which stocks you think are bad then i will buy them.
Bought small position in torm 60 shares.
@6:30 👌 Thank u for making this point.
OMG tankers is a rough business. I lost so much investing in DLNG a few years ago. I learned my lesson. Never again.
I've seen the same with a REIT in Canada, Slate Office REIT went bust, too much debt.
Maybe a video with dividend etf comparison?
ruclips.net/video/luUFQlYmoCs/видео.html
@Value-Investing thank you
I guess this investment will evolve way better than ADM
I was checking NAT, but I would need it to drop a bit more before I buy some.
very insightful, thanks!
Surprised UPS hasn’t been suggested. UPS and TROW have 10 percent CAGR and might could be a 10% cost on yield on 10 years. UPS looks to be on the bottom of a cycle.
Thank you Sven!
Thankx for doing torm like . Lxu company looks interesting to analyze ✌️
Please, update on ABF
Is steel ugly enough yet, like NUE and STLD?
Sven, i respect your view but I don’t agree that it was Marks’ biggest mistake as we don’t know what he paid for the debt. In his frequent newsletters he often talks about finding asymmetric investments. One where they can’t lose too much but can make much more. I think this may be a case. Oaktree bought the debt at a big discount, knowing the underlying assets (the ships ) were worth more AND they could operate them in an up market cycle if need be. It turned out they did get a an up cycle and have done well out of it.
the debt was more than $2 billion, they got half of that, and trust me, it is never the plan to operate a business when it goes bust if you are a bond holder. But yes, it might not be a mistake, just doing business for him, but it sounds better as a title, no?
hey sven! please take a look at alchool stocks since they are at 10 years lows from the link of cancer to consumption of alchool and consumer trends in gen z, i recently took a position in brown forman and ambev
interest rates impact, plus BRL for Ambev ruclips.net/video/HJDR3A5pYBQ/видео.html
ruclips.net/video/Lr0gvEKxNM8/видео.html
@@Value-Investing thanks for the reply ! you looked at them except brown forman which doesn't have accounting shananigans, strong growing brands and family owned which you could see both ways but they have a good track record
Thank you for this
Thorough and well-crafted analysis, as always!
What do you think of making a video about VALE? It's at an amazing valuation PE
This is one of those stocks that looks too good to be true.
As an investment enthusiast, I often wonder how top-level investors are able to become millionaires through investing. I have a significant amount of capital to start with, but I'm unsure about the strategies and direction I should take to help me generate substantial profits like some people are this season
I’m not in a position to offer financial advice, but given the significant amount of capital you're working with, it would be wise to consult a financial advisor who can guide you in developing a strategy tailored to your goals and risk tolerance. The truth is, the role of an investment advisor can often be overlooked but should never be underestimated. After facing a significant portfolio loss in 2020 during the COVID pandemic while trying to manage my investments on my own, I decided to reach out to an investment advisor. At that time, I had about $126K left in my portfolio. Now, without having to lift a finger, I'm semi-retired, working only 7.5 hours a week, and I'm just 15% short of my $1 million retirement goal thanks to my subsequent investments
This is incredible. Could you recommend who you work with? I really could use some help at this moment
My CFA is Gabriel Alberto William, a renowned figure in his line of work. I recommend researching his credentials further. He has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did
I looked for the name online and found his page. I would say he really has an impressive background in investing, Thanks for the help and I will emailed him rightaway and make inquiries
Thanks Sven
Mame, mame if sa dividendama… :)))
oil tank with 27%
Forgot bankrupt lol svn oh man😂
. .OK. . OK...io conoscevo il rischio . . piccola ..SIZE...per provare . .
ATKORE !
God no, I dropped that after six months and managements excuse making out of nowhere on mexican imports and their inability to judge when the underlying commodity price drop would stabilise.
I've found a way better more stable SaaS company in Cerillion which is less volatile and has an actual small moat.
@Cleisthenes607 Ma Cerillionè un Tecnologico . .non è un trasportatore di petrolio . è altro settore . .!! Market Cap molto piccola ...
@@giomf Small market cap with high ROCE and a lot of room to grow in a niche market with sticky customers and lots of high margin recurring revenue that mostly goes down to net income.
Used to think investors lose out amid inflation, meanwhile some make profits. I also thought folks went out of business during the great depression, but some went into business. Bottom line, there's always recession for some folks, while others amass wealth gains.
Right, a lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their emotions, no offense. I remember some years back, amid covid-outbreak, I needed a good boost to grow my savings, hence researched for advisors and thankfully, I came across someone of utmost qualifications. Helped a lot in growing my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $350k to approx. $1m as of today.
how to put my money to work has been my daily thought, did my research and most suggestions pointed at the stock market, the thing is i'm an absolute newb... would you mind sharing info of the professional guiding you please?
I've shuffled through a few advisors in the past, but settled with Amy Lea Kohlert. You'd most likely find her basic info on the internet, she's well established with over two decades of experience.
You make it far too obvious.
D/S Norden is a much better investment than Torm.
You were saying exactly the same with ZIM stock, when it was at 6 USD how extremely dangerous it was and that it may go bankrupt etc. That is why I did not buy more of it and sold it with just a tiny profit of 10%. A few months later, after your great analysis, ZIM went to 27 USD. Thank you
First, take responsibility for yourself. Second, just because Risk hadn’t materialize doesnt mean it wasnt there. Same as MicroStrategy / Bitcoin, Nvidia or whatever. Yeah there is return but there is also risk.
Jesus bro - blaming others for your bad decision … take some responsibility ….like he said in the video - high risk high reward - timing is everything in shipping