The radio messages received by Itasca are analysed and a conclusion is drawn. The flight plan calculations are at 8:55 Part 1 is at this link: • The Last Flight of Ame...
Very well done and informative video, Colin! Your theory seems better than most. The one thing I realized when I did a virtual flight using celestial navigation from Bougainville to Howland (on MSFS in a DC-6), is that you can get within 7 miles of the island and not see it, if at or below 1,000' MSL. So, without some kind of radio homing signal, it would be very easy for them to miss the island. Even on non overcast days, the typical formation of numerous cumulus clouds cast shadows that makes the island itself look like just another cloud shadow.
Excellant well deduced! I have a new theory! The Sperry Auto pilot was brand new and Amelia did remark in her notes from previous flights that the Sperry controll arm wandered several degrees on her flights. This fact may also account for her deviation of 6* I don't think Amelia nessasarily had her hands on the yoke throughout the entire flight. Between the Sperrys drift and the 5mile deviation from actual terrestrial mapping undoubtedly I would think she was between 10 and 140 miles off course. I am not a pilot nor navigator however my father was a pilot in WW ll . I studied his naval flight preparatory books as a child. At that particular time in history Amelia and Fred would be on a suicide mission unbeknownst To themselves. They were essentially flying into Japanese fortified islands and any radio communication on her part would be risking their lives. She was giving Hirohito her exact location and he wanted her plane.
Here's my understanding of Earhart's radio situation: Her Western Electric transmitter was designed for voice only, but had been modified for morse code also. It had 3 selectable frequencies, 500 kHz, 3105 kHz, and 6210 kHz. It could be used with the "V" antenna atop the airplane on 3105 and 6210, but the trailing wire antenna was needed for 500 kHz. On the eastward trip, in Miami, the morse key and the trailing antenna were removed, the "V" antenna was lengthened a couple feet, and a large loading coil was installed so the transmitter would load up on 500 kHz. So she had the capability to transmit on 500 kHz, if she had wanted to. She also had the capability to receive on 500 kHz, certainly using the Bendix DF loop. The Itasca could not transmit voice on 7500 kHz, but, had Earhart left the antenna switch in the "loop" position while listening for Itasca's voice transmissions on 3105 or 6210, she very likely would have heard them. And had Itasca agreed to try transmitting their beacon on 500 kHz, 400 kHz, 333 kHz, or some other low frequency, she likely would have gotten a null. As with most aviation accidents, a chain of events led to this one. (1) She tested the DF (good), which leads me to believe she knew she would be relying on it at Howland. She was unable to get a null at Lae, the test failed, but she took off anyway, not understanding why it failed. (2) She took off over gross weight at Lae. As her airplane rolled over the rough ground of the grass strip, it is likely that her gear struts collapsed more than normal, and the receiving antenna was ripped from the underside of the airplane. Rather than take off overweight, she should have planned an intermediate fuel stop before Howland, a planning error which occurred before she even started. (3) There is no record that she tested the DF or communications enroute while she still had enough fuel to divert to an alternate. Or time to troubleshoot the problem. Although her choice of 7500 as the beacon frequency was a flight planning error which should have been corrected before she left the ground, by moving to a frequency more suited to her DF loop, such as 400 kHz. Had one or more of these errors been corrected before she left Lae, it is more likely she would have landed safely at Howland.
A few items on a long list of things to prepare- and I think most of us, in the same circumstances and not having benefit of hindsight, would have made some omissions. Rather than a criticism of Earhart and Noonan, I see this as an object lesson in proper evaluation of risk and detail of preparation. Lindbergh was very detail oriented and planned meticulously. He was also very lucky that the things he could not control (wind and weather) did not combine to send him to the bottom of the Atlantic.
On another video it was said she was given four frequencies to use for identification but confused wavelength with frequency. 400 kHz, 333 kHz (900 m), 500 kHz and I forget the other one, maybe 800 kHz . It was usual to use wavelength in those days as an old valve wireless will show on it's dial. It said she chose 400 kHz, 900 kHz (333 m) and 7.5 MHz (40 m), and only one frequency for each ship to use. 7.5 MHz was the problem being too high for d.f. at the Itasca and not obtaining a null. The first two must have worked. If this is true why did nobody question her choice of 7.5 MHz? As you say did they not check the loop a few miles out of Lau? The video said she put it down as the signal being too strong at Lau to obtain a null.
As a former USAF navigator with celestial navigation ecperience, this story has always interested me. It was a challenging flight given the weather and equipment of the time. Sometimes when you push the limits, bad things happen.
Thank you so very much indeed for making this two-parter - I thoroughly appreciated your explanation of what happened? Everyone has and is entitled to their own opinions and for me your efforts are well packaged and give good credibility to one of the many conclusions need to be considered
They say that the Electra would not float for long. But I wonder. The plane was full of empty fuel tanks. Wouldn't those empty tanks have kept them afloat for at least some length of time? If the radio was not submerged couldn't they have sent out distress calls while drifting on the ocean?
That’s my thought as well, but it all depends on the sea state… If it was smooth, she would’ve laid her down like a baby, but if there were 6 foot seas, that would’ve been a pretty hard hit, and she had all the previous damage that were repaired from her early accident in Hawaii
Yes. I think they could have, and I think that the 15 yr old in Florida heard those calls, right up till they stopped. I believe that's when the plane either sank if it was on water, or with no more fuel, ran out of battery power if on a reef, like Nikamoro Island theory. However if they went north and ditched, thn drifted towards Marshall Islands, the Japanese theory sort of comes into play. I don't think she had the fuel to make the Marshall Islands. Than it's back to the ditched in the ocean theory again.
Radio signals were allegedly heard from her for up to 5 days after she disappeared. Doubtful this would have been possible unless they were sitting on land (or a reef somewhere) so they could run the starboard engine for short periods to recharge the batteries.
@omcbob37 yes. That is true. However, how many of those actually came from Earhart? She could possibly have had enough battery power to send one distress call. And then it was repeated by whoever else might have picked it up. This could also support a ditching in the ocean theory. She knew she was low on fuel, so she slowed way down at as low as she could and ditched as safely as she could. Floated but slowly sinking for a couple of hours. Giving time to make that 2 hr distress call tha the 15 yr old heard. Then sank. The Nikamoro theory, has things there that were left by someone. But, not a trace of Earharts plane. Still possible though. The MV Myrtlebank was possibly the ship Earhart repeatedly seen. And, crew from the MV Myrtlebank claim to have heard a plane. If that was Earhart, she was off course to the North. And by the time she should've been at Howland, she was way north with not enough fuel to correct their mistake, so they ditched or crashed.
Seems like a reasonable analysis based on what is actually known. Assuming it is correct, hindsight reveals a number of contributing factors. When reading of Lindbergh's preparations for his NY-Paris flight, you are struck by the man's attention to detail, not ignoring risk but evaluating it at every step (even so he was very fortunate). Earhart's preparations read like a list of things that could have been done but weren't. For sure the Electra is at the bottom of the ocean somewhere. Maybe some future generation will stumble across whatever the sea has not consumed.
More than likely galvanic corrosion has eroded her plane particularly when It was a magnesium aluminum alloy stretched skin. I would tend to think only the cylinder heads might still exist encrusted in all that corral; that's if our marines.didnt already incinerate every last trace of her plane on Sep.4 1944 so Roseveldt could be re-elected and sweep her under the rug of the Pacifhic group.
There again I may be in complete error. The one thing I'm learning from all this is flying is a great deal more deadly than anyone cares to admit. There is so much science and math you have to know to be even a crummy pilot I m sorta glad I'm a land lubber.At one point in my life I wanted to be a pilot but now I'm sure I'd rather be safe and not fly. It's too damn complicated.
Yes, there's hardly a shadow of doubt in my mind that Earhart's Lockheed is laid at sea's bottom, a place where light has never been and eyes of living men have never seen. It would be monumentally stupid to be lost, low on fuel, and try to make it to some other island when she couldn't be at all sure where she even was, or where the island she was looking for even was, either. So she can't find Gardner Island, but she's going to take her low fuel and fly hundreds of miles to try and find another? Lunacy. She did what anyone rational and nearing the end would do: she kept trying to find Gardner, she prayed a signal from that ship would finally come through, and she likely hit the waves nose-down, dying on impact before sinking to the bottom of the sea. They'll find her plane, whatever is left of it. They always overestimate the condition things will be in at the bottom of the sea. It's likely barely recognizable at all, somewhat buried in the clay, would have collided nose-first with the sea floor going about 40 mph.
@@James-mz7tv. Gardner island is 400 miles from Howland. The aircraft did not have the range to make Gardner. Gardner was a black dot on Noonan’s chart. No coordinates listed. They couldn’t get there if they tried. And the Sun line doesn’t go over Gardner, either.
> preparations ? < The part 1 video went pretty easy on Earhart's husband, who strongly supported, encouraged and advised her to be fearless while he shared the earnings that her reckless notoriety produced.
Excellent research and presentation. The sighting of the SS Myrtlebank and the radio report from Nauru was the defining proof for me that Earhart was tragically off course.
1:05 The Sun line across Howland rotated so as to stay perpendicular to the azimuth of the sun. The Sun passed north of Howland Island. So it rotated counterclockwise. The angular height of the Sun could be predicted for any instant that morning. If measured, its measured height could be compared with the prediction. The difference in arcminutes could be used to indicate how far the plane was left or right of the Sun line.
@before 12:04, or, they were already South but didn't realize it. They turned South, thinking they would fly over Howland, when instead, they were flying into Nikamoro. Where ever they were, they were not close enough for anyone on the ground or on the Ataska to see or hear the plane.
There is some factual data that you ignore or are unaware of. 1. No life raft onboard. Earhart had the aircraft stripped bare at Lae. She wanted the most range she could get. This is from testimony of the station manager at Lae and Earhart’s diary she mailed home. She reported details back to the US at every stop if possible. 2. There was not 3 hours of fuel onboard when they arrived in the vicinity of Howland. Not even close to that amount. Earhart kept meticulous records of her aircraft’s performance. She conferred with Kelly Johnson regularly to get the best performance. You do mention Johnson in Part 1. Not sure how you determined 3 hours reserve. Her exact fuel load is known from receipts at Lae. 3. The DF on her aircraft did not work on a test flight at Lae. This was obviously before her final take-off and the infamous puff of dirt from a dirt runway. She was mishandling the one-off, custom built Bendix radio. This was determined afterwards by the man who designed it. There are a couple of other details I won’t mention. I’m considering producing my own RUclips video on this subject.
Earhart mentioned "line of position 157 337." A sun line that crosses Howland is not necessarily an advanced sunrise line. Course deviation while tracking along a Sun Line that crosses over Howland is found by finding the difference in arcminutes between the Sun's observed height and calculated height.
Estimating the instant of sunrise is interesting. It involves uncertain refraction. In 1937 the amount of refraction between the horizon and eye could be found in only a few books.
She did have 500 khz, retuned in lae for use with the rooftop antenna. The morse keys not on board , just meant tbey had to use tbe mic button to send crude morse, And they did , but not on 500 khz
TIGHAR drew a line from Gardner north towards Howland on a 337 true course and said this is the starting point where Earhart and noonan turned onto the infamous 157-337!! No research required!! TIGHAR can’t explain where the plane was before they turned onto 157-337!
@twright4263 right. But more research should be done on Emily Sikuli. Who was there a few years later on Nikamoro Island, and said she saw plane wreckage. Her father who was the Islands carpenter at the time also told her about the bones.
@@TheFarmerfitz are you talking about the “landing gear” in the water? Dr Ballard and his team never found any plane wreckage in 2019. The “landing gear” was a pile of rocks! TIGHAR has done 12 expeditions since the 80’s and only has a piece of metal and credible witnesses. Oh and TIGHAR also said they found a piece of metal and has credible witnesses when they were searching for the white bird!
@@TheFarmerfitz I just did a quick read on Emily. All that information comes from TIGHAR! They couldn’t find the original interview from 1999. From what I gathered they are talking about the “landing gear” from the photo. As I said Dr Ballard searched the area and found a pile of rocks! TIGHAR also claims they have another area which they claim has what looks like engine cowling but unfortunately they can’t locate the area. Nobody can prove Earhart and Noonan survived beyond the morning of July 2nd. Nobody can verify that any radio transmissions came from them. Earhart could not communicate with the itasca before they took off and people all over the world have claimed to have heard her! How? What about the “ship in site” report? And what about the report from a deckhand on the Myrtleback on that same night hearing a plane flying overhead? TIGHAR doesn’t put much thought into those reports, why?
@twright4263 Not talking about where they saw just a landing gear. It was scattered pieces of plane wreckage. Her father told her there were Bones. They were actually scared to go near it and her father wouldn't let Emily see the Bones.
@twright4263 I'm not someone who would wish the Nikamoro theory on anyone. What a horrible way to go. If they crashed in the Ocean, at leat it would be over quickly.
Noonan said the night before the trip they could only carry 950 gallons total. This must include the 100 octane fuel for the boost at takeoff from the unpacked runway at Lae because at 950 gallons, the plane was maxed out at the 15,300 pound capacity for a runway as short as that at Lae. With 950 gallons, they couldn’t have stayed in the air all of this time and distance. Especially with the headwind.
According to the Chater report, the fuel on board was 1100 US gallons including the 100 octane fuel. The weight of the fuel depended on the temperature and density.
@@colingtaylor2158 That is definitely what it said, and it might very well be right. I just find it curious that Noonan said the night before the flight that weight restrictions limited them to 950 gallons total. I would think that he would have a good handle on that figure the night before the flight.
What was the sea state at the time that Amelia supposedly ditched? If it was smooth, then she laid down nice and easy, and they could’ve gotten into a raft, but in 6 foot seas they probably got beat up, pretty bad and weren’t able to set up the raft
Why are you using the sun line to determine 157-337? There is a 67 degree magnetic course (76.5 degree true) 1.5 degrees (80 miles north of Howland. TIGHAR is the one that decided that 157-337 is based on the sun line. Over the last 86 years why haven’t any of the experts mentioned magnetic declination or the fact that a 67 degree magnetic is located north of Howland? Nobody mentions what a 78 degree true course is converted to a magnetic course (68.5 degree)! Why??
My uneducated guess is somewhere near MILLI ATOL WAS WHERE THEY PROBABLY DITCHED INTO THE SEA. JAPANESE PICKED THEM UP, HAULED THEM TO Saipan. They would have been so tired there was no way they would have reached Howland anyway.
Just a theory I may be completely wrong. Had she had pontoons and food supply she might have made it. I think she avoided pontoons to be less visible to radar.
Also to make it lighter maybe. And, yes or no(I'm asking), did she not require a different class license for that? And Radar wasn't invented until 1940, so that's a negative to avoid Radar. But yes instead of wherever she did, she could have landed anywhere on water, got towed in to refuel.
There is no proof that the bones and aluminum piece were from Earhart or part of the Electra. It's speculation only. There were 3 known graves on the island of seamen who were killed when the S.S. Norwich City burned at the reef edge in 1929. 10 more seamen went missing and were not recovered. There could be lots of bones buried on the island. The aluminum piece could have come from a military C-47 transport plane that crashed on nearby Sydney Island during the war.
There was a B-24 crash on Canton Island, also. The natives were well known to scavenge pieces to make tools. During WWII, Gardner was used as a base for a LORAN station. There is no telling how many aircraft and people were on that island. For approximately 20 years it was colonized by the Gilbertese. Approximately 200 people. That piece of aircraft was attempted to be matched to an Electra in the US. No match. It was a near perfect match for the upper wing skin on a PBY.
@@paganphil100 I know, I think it’s 0.003 degrees/year. In 1937 near Howland the magnetic declination was 9.49 degrees east and now it’s around 9.8 degrees east.
Hey Neat stuff I totally agree! Oh! Hi Dr. W. DIDNT REALIZE YOU WERE STLL LURKING ABOUT! WOW. LIFE IS WEIRD. I THINK ILL STICK WITH THE FLINT MOBILE. TOOTLES AND MERRY X MASS!
I don't beleive Amelia was captured by the Japanese. They may have aided on her search. The US was not at war with Japan. And if they located and rescued her and her Navigator. In the eyes of the world back then . They would have showed superior Naval rescue tactics.
They absolutely have to fly south because there is no island north of howland that they could reach. They might just barely reach gardener. So noonan would have said go south.
Gardner is 400 miles from Howland. The island is marked as a black dot on Noonan’s chart. No coordinates listed. 39 miles south of Howland is Baker Island. Guess he couldn’t find that either?
@@getoffenit7827 Yeah, I just love how they carried a life raft with them most of the way around the world, but then ditch it right before their most dangerous leg of the trip. The number of unforced errors and poor decisions these two made is astonishing.
Bad planning and even worse Execution. If she wouldn't have crashed in honolulu Due to misuse of the rudder, she would have had both manning and newton along. That would nearly guarantee success.
Despite the navy searching we can be fairly certain that she was transmitting from gardner. With that in mind and assuming they made it, they would have had to have been south, not north Of howland on the 157.
@@colingtaylor2158not just that but other groups have searched Gardner island before TIGHAR. There is a ship wreck and proof that people have been living there on and off for centuries.
@@colingtaylor2158TIGHAR and the other groups want the mystery to continue so they can profit from it $$$$$. “If I can’t be proven wrong then I must be right”!!!!
@@colingtaylor2158the funny thing is that you are pissing TIGHAR minions and the other cults off. Most of the people who will view these videos of Earhart are from these cults. They have to comment so they can keep the scam up so they can raise money???? Keep up with the real research!!
Japanese Military could of capture them and sent to Saipan....they have died There or they lived and went on with assumed names were sent to somewhere by the US military...in 1944 the plane was destroyed by US Marines
Amateurish video. They DID find Earhart during the search and they DID recover some of her bones a few years later. There’s no mystery as to what happened, unless you’re ignorant of many of the facts of the incident.
What’s the magnetic declination near Howland? TIGHAR doesn’t mention it. A 78 degree true course is what on a compass? What is TIGHAR proof? Analysis from a photo? I can’t scale off mechanical drawings, I have to use the architectural drawings. They found a piece of metal that washed up like 50 years later! They have credible witnesses that heard Earhart! How did they prove it was Earhart? Voice recognition? TIGHAR made the same claims when searching for the white bird. TIGHAR says that 157-337 is based on the sun line 11 degree north of Howland (67 degree true). TIGHAR says NOTHING about the 67 degree magnetic which is 1.5 degrees (80 miles) north of Howland (76.5 degree true course). Why is that? And where is TIGHAR research on the 67 degree magnetic to disprove that the 157-337 is not based on it?
@@neilsingh5311 actually TIGHAR made these claims. They also claim that 157-337 is based on the 67 degree truth (sun line) 11 degrees north of Howland. Not the 67 degree magnetic that’s only 1.5 degrees north. They also claim they have a piece of metal and credible witnesses, the same claims they made when searching for “the white bird”!
wow, pretty arrogant statement, lots of navigators have come to simular conclusions as this fellow. No evidence found thus far has been conclusive. Gardner is 400 miles from Howland. Not very likely the error was south enough for them to reach Gardner.
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Very well done and informative video, Colin! Your theory seems better than most. The one thing I realized when I did a virtual flight using celestial navigation from Bougainville to Howland (on MSFS in a DC-6), is that you can get within 7 miles of the island and not see it, if at or below 1,000' MSL. So, without some kind of radio homing signal, it would be very easy for them to miss the island. Even on non overcast days, the typical formation of numerous cumulus clouds cast shadows that makes the island itself look like just another cloud shadow.
Excellant well deduced! I have a new theory! The Sperry Auto pilot was brand new and Amelia did remark in her notes from previous flights that the Sperry controll arm wandered several degrees on her flights. This fact may also account for her deviation of 6* I don't think Amelia nessasarily had her hands on the yoke throughout the entire flight. Between the Sperrys drift and the 5mile deviation from actual terrestrial mapping undoubtedly I would think she was between 10 and 140 miles off course. I am not a pilot nor navigator however my father was a pilot in WW ll . I studied his naval flight preparatory books as a child. At that particular time in history Amelia and Fred would be on a suicide mission unbeknownst
To themselves. They were essentially flying into Japanese fortified islands and any radio communication on her part would be risking their lives. She was giving Hirohito her exact location and he wanted her plane.
The Japanese had already bought at least 3 Lockheed Electras and built their own by 1937...so 'No' they didnt need her Electra
Here's my understanding of Earhart's radio situation: Her Western Electric transmitter was designed for voice only, but had been modified for morse code also. It had 3 selectable frequencies, 500 kHz, 3105 kHz, and 6210 kHz. It could be used with the "V" antenna atop the airplane on 3105 and 6210, but the trailing wire antenna was needed for 500 kHz. On the eastward trip, in Miami, the morse key and the trailing antenna were removed, the "V" antenna was lengthened a couple feet, and a large loading coil was installed so the transmitter would load up on 500 kHz. So she had the capability to transmit on 500 kHz, if she had wanted to. She also had the capability to receive on 500 kHz, certainly using the Bendix DF loop.
The Itasca could not transmit voice on 7500 kHz, but, had Earhart left the antenna switch in the "loop" position while listening for Itasca's voice transmissions on 3105 or 6210, she very likely would have heard them. And had Itasca agreed to try transmitting their beacon on 500 kHz, 400 kHz, 333 kHz, or some other low frequency, she likely would have gotten a null.
As with most aviation accidents, a chain of events led to this one. (1) She tested the DF (good), which leads me to believe she knew she would be relying on it at Howland. She was unable to get a null at Lae, the test failed, but she took off anyway, not understanding why it failed. (2) She took off over gross weight at Lae. As her airplane rolled over the rough ground of the grass strip, it is likely that her gear struts collapsed more than normal, and the receiving antenna was ripped from the underside of the airplane. Rather than take off overweight, she should have planned an intermediate fuel stop before Howland, a planning error which occurred before she even started. (3) There is no record that she tested the DF or communications enroute while she still had enough fuel to divert to an alternate. Or time to troubleshoot the problem. Although her choice of 7500 as the beacon frequency was a flight planning error which should have been corrected before she left the ground, by moving to a frequency more suited to her DF loop, such as 400 kHz. Had one or more of these errors been corrected before she left Lae, it is more likely she would have landed safely at Howland.
So far as being out of radio range, had she transmitted on 6210 (day) or 3105 (night), that might have propagated by NVIS over a few hundred miles.
A few items on a long list of things to prepare- and I think most of us, in the same circumstances and not having benefit of hindsight, would have made some omissions. Rather than a criticism of Earhart and Noonan, I see this as an object lesson in proper evaluation of risk and detail of preparation. Lindbergh was very detail oriented and planned meticulously. He was also very lucky that the things he could not control (wind and weather) did not combine to send him to the bottom of the Atlantic.
On another video it was said she was given four frequencies to use for identification but confused wavelength with frequency. 400 kHz, 333 kHz (900 m), 500 kHz and I forget the other one, maybe 800 kHz . It was usual to use wavelength in those days as an old valve wireless will show on it's dial.
It said she chose 400 kHz, 900 kHz (333 m) and 7.5 MHz (40 m), and only one frequency for each ship to use.
7.5 MHz was the problem being too high for d.f. at the Itasca and not obtaining a null. The first two must have worked.
If this is true why did nobody question her choice of 7.5 MHz?
As you say did they not check the loop a few miles out of Lau? The video said she put it down as the signal being too strong at Lau to obtain a null.
That’s a good summary. 👍🏼
As a former USAF navigator with celestial navigation ecperience, this story has always interested me. It was a challenging flight given the weather and equipment of the time. Sometimes when you push the limits, bad things happen.
Hi from New Zealand!🇳🇿Great doco!✈️
Thank you so very much indeed for making this two-parter - I thoroughly appreciated your explanation of what happened? Everyone has and is entitled to their own opinions and for me your efforts are well packaged and give good credibility to one of the many conclusions need to be considered
They say that the Electra would not float for long. But I wonder. The plane was full of empty fuel tanks. Wouldn't those empty tanks have kept them afloat for at least some length of time? If the radio was not submerged couldn't they have sent out distress calls while drifting on the ocean?
That’s my thought as well, but it all depends on the sea state… If it was smooth, she would’ve laid her down like a baby, but if there were 6 foot seas, that would’ve been a pretty hard hit, and she had all the previous damage that were repaired from her early accident in Hawaii
Yes. I think they could have, and I think that the 15 yr old in Florida heard those calls, right up till they stopped. I believe that's when the plane either sank if it was on water, or with no more fuel, ran out of battery power if on a reef, like Nikamoro Island theory. However if they went north and ditched, thn drifted towards Marshall Islands, the Japanese theory sort of comes into play. I don't think she had the fuel to make the Marshall Islands. Than it's back to the ditched in the ocean theory again.
Radio signals were allegedly heard from her for up to 5 days after she disappeared. Doubtful this would have been possible unless they were sitting on land (or a reef somewhere) so they could run the starboard engine for short periods to recharge the batteries.
@omcbob37 yes. That is true. However, how many of those actually came from Earhart? She could possibly have had enough battery power to send one distress call. And then it was repeated by whoever else might have picked it up. This could also support a ditching in the ocean theory. She knew she was low on fuel, so she slowed way down at as low as she could and ditched as safely as she could. Floated but slowly sinking for a couple of hours. Giving time to make that 2 hr distress call tha the 15 yr old heard. Then sank. The Nikamoro theory, has things there that were left by someone. But, not a trace of Earharts plane. Still possible though. The MV Myrtlebank was possibly the ship Earhart repeatedly seen. And, crew from the MV Myrtlebank claim to have heard a plane. If that was Earhart, she was off course to the North. And by the time she should've been at Howland, she was way north with not enough fuel to correct their mistake, so they ditched or crashed.
😅😅😅.@@TheFarmerfitz
Seems like a reasonable analysis based on what is actually known. Assuming it is correct, hindsight reveals a number of contributing factors. When reading of Lindbergh's preparations for his NY-Paris flight, you are struck by the man's attention to detail, not ignoring risk but evaluating it at every step (even so he was very fortunate). Earhart's preparations read like a list of things that could have been done but weren't. For sure the Electra is at the bottom of the ocean somewhere. Maybe some future generation will stumble across whatever the sea has not consumed.
More than likely galvanic corrosion has eroded her plane particularly when It was a magnesium aluminum alloy stretched skin. I would tend to think only the cylinder heads might still exist encrusted in all that corral; that's if our marines.didnt already incinerate every last trace of her plane on Sep.4 1944 so Roseveldt could be re-elected and sweep her under the rug of the Pacifhic group.
There again I may be in complete error. The one thing I'm learning from all this is flying is a great deal more deadly than anyone cares to admit. There is so much science and math you have to know to be even a crummy pilot I m sorta glad I'm a land lubber.At one point in my life I wanted to be a pilot but now I'm sure I'd rather be safe and not fly. It's too damn complicated.
Yes, there's hardly a shadow of doubt in my mind that Earhart's Lockheed is laid at sea's bottom, a place where light has never been and eyes of living men have never seen.
It would be monumentally stupid to be lost, low on fuel, and try to make it to some other island when she couldn't be at all sure where she even was, or where the island she was looking for even was, either. So she can't find Gardner Island, but she's going to take her low fuel and fly hundreds of miles to try and find another? Lunacy. She did what anyone rational and nearing the end would do: she kept trying to find Gardner, she prayed a signal from that ship would finally come through, and she likely hit the waves nose-down, dying on impact before sinking to the bottom of the sea.
They'll find her plane, whatever is left of it. They always overestimate the condition things will be in at the bottom of the sea. It's likely barely recognizable at all, somewhat buried in the clay, would have collided nose-first with the sea floor going about 40 mph.
@@James-mz7tv. Gardner island is 400 miles from Howland. The aircraft did not have the range to make Gardner. Gardner was a black dot on Noonan’s chart. No coordinates listed.
They couldn’t get there if they tried. And the Sun line doesn’t go over Gardner, either.
> preparations ? <
The part 1 video went pretty easy on Earhart's husband, who strongly supported, encouraged and advised her to be fearless while he shared the earnings that her reckless notoriety produced.
Until we know, we don't know.
Excellent research and presentation. The sighting of the SS Myrtlebank and the radio report from Nauru was the defining proof for me that Earhart was tragically off course.
1:05 The Sun line across Howland rotated so as to stay perpendicular to the azimuth of the sun. The Sun passed north of Howland Island. So it rotated counterclockwise. The angular height of the Sun could be predicted for any instant that morning. If measured, its measured height could be compared with the prediction. The difference in arcminutes could be used to indicate how far the plane was left or right of the Sun line.
@before 12:04, or, they were already South but didn't realize it. They turned South, thinking they would fly over Howland, when instead, they were flying into Nikamoro. Where ever they were, they were not close enough for anyone on the ground or on the Ataska to see or hear the plane.
There is some factual data that you ignore or are unaware of.
1. No life raft onboard. Earhart had the aircraft stripped bare at Lae. She wanted the most range she could get. This is from testimony of the station manager at Lae and Earhart’s diary she mailed home. She reported details back to the US at every stop if possible.
2. There was not 3 hours of fuel onboard when they arrived in the vicinity of Howland. Not even close to that amount. Earhart kept meticulous records of her aircraft’s performance. She conferred with Kelly Johnson regularly to get the best performance. You do mention Johnson in Part 1. Not sure how you determined 3 hours reserve. Her exact fuel load is known from receipts at Lae.
3. The DF on her aircraft did not work on a test flight at Lae. This was obviously before her final take-off and the infamous puff of dirt from a dirt runway. She was mishandling the one-off, custom built Bendix radio. This was determined afterwards by the man who designed it.
There are a couple of other details I won’t mention. I’m considering producing my own RUclips video on this subject.
Yes please do if you have something to add as to the facts of this unfortunate final flight by Amelia .
Earhart mentioned "line of position 157 337."
A sun line that crosses Howland is not necessarily an advanced sunrise line.
Course deviation while tracking along a Sun Line that crosses over Howland is found by finding the difference in arcminutes between the Sun's observed height and calculated height.
Estimating the instant of sunrise is interesting. It involves uncertain refraction. In 1937 the amount of refraction between the horizon and eye could be found in only a few books.
She did have 500 khz, retuned in lae for use with the rooftop antenna.
The morse keys not on board , just meant tbey had to use tbe mic button to send crude morse,
And they did , but not on 500 khz
TIGHAR drew a line from Gardner north towards Howland on a 337 true course and said this is the starting point where Earhart and noonan turned onto the infamous 157-337!! No research required!! TIGHAR can’t explain where the plane was before they turned onto 157-337!
@twright4263 right. But more research should be done on Emily Sikuli. Who was there a few years later on Nikamoro Island, and said she saw plane wreckage. Her father who was the Islands carpenter at the time also told her about the bones.
@@TheFarmerfitz are you talking about the “landing gear” in the water? Dr Ballard and his team never found any plane wreckage in 2019. The “landing gear” was a pile of rocks! TIGHAR has done 12 expeditions since the 80’s and only has a piece of metal and credible witnesses. Oh and TIGHAR also said they found a piece of metal and has credible witnesses when they were searching for the white bird!
@@TheFarmerfitz I just did a quick read on Emily. All that information comes from TIGHAR! They couldn’t find the original interview from 1999. From what I gathered they are talking about the “landing gear” from the photo. As I said Dr Ballard searched the area and found a pile of rocks! TIGHAR also claims they have another area which they claim has what looks like engine cowling but unfortunately they can’t locate the area. Nobody can prove Earhart and Noonan survived beyond the morning of July 2nd. Nobody can verify that any radio transmissions came from them. Earhart could not communicate with the itasca before they took off and people all over the world have claimed to have heard her! How?
What about the “ship in site” report? And what about the report from a deckhand on the Myrtleback on that same night hearing a plane flying overhead? TIGHAR doesn’t put much thought into those reports, why?
@twright4263 Not talking about where they saw just a landing gear. It was scattered pieces of plane wreckage. Her father told her there were Bones. They were actually scared to go near it and her father wouldn't let Emily see the Bones.
@twright4263 I'm not someone who would wish the Nikamoro theory on anyone. What a horrible way to go. If they crashed in the Ocean, at leat it would be over quickly.
Noonan said the night before the trip they could only carry 950 gallons total. This must include the 100 octane fuel for the boost at takeoff from the unpacked runway at Lae because at 950 gallons, the plane was maxed out at the 15,300 pound capacity for a runway as short as that at Lae. With 950 gallons, they couldn’t have stayed in the air all of this time and distance. Especially with the headwind.
According to the Chater report, the fuel on board was 1100 US gallons including the 100 octane fuel. The weight of the fuel depended on the temperature and density.
@@colingtaylor2158 That is definitely what it said, and it might very well be right. I just find it curious that Noonan said the night before the flight that weight restrictions limited them to 950 gallons total. I would think that he would have a good handle on that figure the night before the flight.
Why wasn't the Itasca supplied with signal rockets?
That's a good point
Good? ... strange how all this is
@Gwaithmir: According to some reports it was and they fired them (flares) but they must have been too far from the ship to see them.
What was the sea state at the time that Amelia supposedly ditched? If it was smooth, then she laid down nice and easy, and they could’ve gotten into a raft, but in 6 foot seas they probably got beat up, pretty bad and weren’t able to set up the raft
Itasca reported swells 1 to 2 feet. No white caps.
No life raft onboard.
Amelia probably couldn't even fly A NDB approach. But I always wondered why there was not A NDB available. 😢 The ship could have provided one.
Itasca was providing an NDB signal. Earhart was mishandling her homing equipment.
Why are you using the sun line to determine 157-337? There is a 67 degree magnetic course (76.5 degree true) 1.5 degrees (80 miles north of Howland. TIGHAR is the one that decided that 157-337 is based on the sun line. Over the last 86 years why haven’t any of the experts mentioned magnetic declination or the fact that a 67 degree magnetic is located north of Howland? Nobody mentions what a 78 degree true course is converted to a magnetic course (68.5 degree)! Why??
My uneducated guess is somewhere near MILLI ATOL WAS WHERE THEY PROBABLY DITCHED INTO THE SEA. JAPANESE PICKED THEM UP, HAULED THEM TO Saipan. They would have been so tired there was no way they would have reached Howland anyway.
Absolutely 💯
🎉🎉 " Where is AMELIA " 🎉🎉
???????? ...
Just a theory I may be completely wrong. Had she had pontoons and food supply she might have made it. I think she avoided pontoons to be less visible to radar.
Pontoons? To avoid radar? Yes, you are completely wrong.
Also to make it lighter maybe. And, yes or no(I'm asking), did she not require a different class license for that? And Radar wasn't invented until 1940, so that's a negative to avoid Radar. But yes instead of wherever she did, she could have landed anywhere on water, got towed in to refuel.
None fitted to save weight and drag resulting in more fuel being used and they only had a certain fuel storage capacity.
How could a navy ship have no flares? Is it because they wanted to be incognito from the Japanese?
No. The Navy asked the Japanese to help search for her aircraft. So much for incognito.
What about the bones and artifacts, Including parts of the actual aircraft that were found on Gardener island?
There is no proof that the bones and aluminum piece were from Earhart or part of the Electra. It's speculation only. There were 3 known graves on the island of seamen who were killed when the S.S. Norwich City burned at the reef edge in 1929. 10 more seamen went missing and were not recovered. There could be lots of bones buried on the island. The aluminum piece could have come from a military C-47 transport plane that crashed on nearby Sydney Island during the war.
There was a B-24 crash on Canton Island, also. The natives were well known to scavenge pieces to make tools. During WWII, Gardner was used as a base for a LORAN station. There is no telling how many aircraft and people were on that island. For approximately 20 years it was colonized by the Gilbertese. Approximately 200 people.
That piece of aircraft was attempted to be matched to an Electra in the US. No match. It was a near perfect match for the upper wing skin on a PBY.
And the human remains along with personal possessions found at a campsite on Gardener island?@@raoulcruz4404
I wonder how many people know that magnetic north on the west coast of the US is different from the magnetic north on the east coast?
@twright4263: Its different everywhere (and it moves over time).
@@paganphil100 I know, I think it’s 0.003 degrees/year. In 1937 near Howland the magnetic declination was 9.49 degrees east and now it’s around 9.8 degrees east.
Pan am could have just reached them by cliper launching full of fuel from hawaii. It would be a ten hour trip one way and a ten hour trip back.
Hey Neat stuff I totally agree! Oh! Hi Dr. W. DIDNT REALIZE YOU WERE STLL LURKING ABOUT! WOW. LIFE IS WEIRD. I THINK ILL STICK WITH THE FLINT MOBILE. TOOTLES AND MERRY X MASS!
I don't beleive Amelia was captured by the Japanese. They may have aided on her search. The US was not at war with Japan. And if they located and rescued her and her Navigator. In the eyes of the world back then . They would have showed superior Naval rescue tactics.
They absolutely have to fly south because there is no island north of howland that they could reach. They might just barely reach gardener. So noonan would have said go south.
Gardner is 400 miles from Howland. The island is marked as a black dot on Noonan’s chart. No coordinates listed.
39 miles south of Howland is Baker Island. Guess he couldn’t find that either?
If only GPS had existed then 😞
I don’t think they had a dinghy with them
They did have a liferaft for part of the trip but it and several other items of gear were offloaded in Lae New Guinea to try and reduce weight.
. I'll be they regretted doing that.
@@getoffenit7827 Yeah, I just love how they carried a life raft with them most of the way around the world, but then ditch it right before their most dangerous leg of the trip. The number of unforced errors and poor decisions these two made is astonishing.
very good video, except TIGHAR is way off and you should not be using their data. They put Earharts plane on Gardinar island successfull landing.
So close but so far. That plane could be in a hundred pieces strewn on the seabed.
3105khz and 6201khz are not good in the morning 🌅. ..they should have been on 8mhz and 13mhz... doing the day it was a bad choice 😮
Bad planning and even worse Execution. If she wouldn't have crashed in honolulu Due to misuse of the rudder, she would have had both manning and newton along. That would nearly guarantee success.
Noonan
Despite the navy searching we can be fairly certain that she was transmitting from gardner. With that in mind and assuming they made it, they would have had to have been south, not north Of howland on the 157.
The Navy flew over Gardner Island within a few days. The Electra was not there.
@@colingtaylor2158 Of course it wasn't. The navy Picked it up.
@@colingtaylor2158not just that but other groups have searched Gardner island before TIGHAR. There is a ship wreck and proof that people have been living there on and off for centuries.
@@colingtaylor2158TIGHAR and the other groups want the mystery to continue so they can profit from it $$$$$. “If I can’t be proven wrong then I must be right”!!!!
@@colingtaylor2158the funny thing is that you are pissing TIGHAR minions and the other cults off. Most of the people who will view these videos of Earhart are from these cults. They have to comment so they can keep the scam up so they can raise money???? Keep up with the real research!!
Japanese Military could of capture them and sent to Saipan....they have died There or they lived and went on with assumed names were sent to somewhere by the US military...in 1944 the plane was destroyed by US Marines
Large sections of dead air. need better editing,
Amateurish video. They DID find Earhart during the search and they DID recover some of her bones a few years later. There’s no mystery as to what happened, unless you’re ignorant of many of the facts of the incident.
No trace of Earhart, Noonan or the Electra have ever been found.
What’s the magnetic declination near Howland? TIGHAR doesn’t mention it. A 78 degree true course is what on a compass?
What is TIGHAR proof? Analysis from a photo? I can’t scale off mechanical drawings, I have to use the architectural drawings. They found a piece of metal that washed up like 50 years later! They have credible witnesses that heard Earhart! How did they prove it was Earhart? Voice recognition? TIGHAR made the same claims when searching for the white bird. TIGHAR says that 157-337 is based on the sun line 11 degree north of Howland (67 degree true). TIGHAR says NOTHING about the 67 degree magnetic which is 1.5 degrees (80 miles) north of Howland (76.5 degree true course). Why is that? And where is TIGHAR research on the 67 degree magnetic to disprove that the 157-337 is not based on it?
You literally made up all of those “facts.”
@@neilsingh5311 actually TIGHAR made these claims. They also claim that 157-337 is based on the 67 degree truth (sun line) 11 degrees north of Howland. Not the 67 degree magnetic that’s only 1.5 degrees north. They also claim they have a piece of metal and credible witnesses, the same claims they made when searching for “the white bird”!
wow, pretty arrogant statement, lots of navigators have come to simular conclusions as this fellow. No evidence found thus far has been conclusive. Gardner is 400 miles from Howland. Not very likely the error was south enough for them to reach Gardner.