Housing Market CRASH has begun... IT'S OVER.
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- Опубликовано: 27 окт 2023
- Ex-Google TechLead on the real estate housing bubble and coming crash caused by high interest rates, property tax rules, and Airbnb regulation. LIMITED TIME, get SkillShare for FREE: skl.sh/techlead10232 Learn entrepreneurship, finance, productivity, real estate. Get 30 days FREE PLUS 40% off your first year, it's one of the very best offers ever!
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I'd be Proud to be pushing Skillshare. Anything that promotes learning is better than any other message.
This has to be one of your best videos ever man. You have a lot of gems to chose from though.
It will continue to be a bubble whilst real estate companies themselves are buying up cheap foreclosures and keeping them empty and out of the market in an effort to "regulate" "supply & demand". Government only wants house costs to increase for the increased tax revenue, and the private sector who build new homes have absolutely *no interest* in keeping supply low and demand high..... Honestly some days I hate being part of this civilisation, *****if only I owned some fertile land and could actually grow my own food*****, I might choose to leave "civilisation" behind....... ;-{D
Style, features and layout do not even matter to me, I just want somewhere to live that isn't a Hyundai Getz or a tent although given housing availability and costs I may end up in a tent, I wonder how the telco will react when I ask for the landline to be connected to a local park so I can get DSL into my tent...... Oh Austfailure, I'm from Austfailure
What tool do you use to record your video casts? GREAT CONTENT and GREAT FORMAT
Because so many people overpaid for homes even while loan rates were low, I believe there will be a housing catastrophe because these people are in debt. If housing costs continue to drop and, for whatever reason, they can no longer afford the property and it goes into foreclosure, they have no equity since, even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I believe that many individuals will experience this, especially given the impending mass layoffs and rapidly rising living expenses.
I advise you to invest in stocks to balance out your real estate, Even the worst recessions offer wonderful buying opportunities in the markets if you're cautious. Volatility can also result in excellent short-term buy and sell opportunities. This is not financial advice, but buy now because cash is definitely not king right now!
Soon, cheap homes won't be cheap anymore because prices today will look like dips tomorrow. I think inflation will cause panic until the Fed tightens its grip even more. You can't just pull the band-aid Off half way. Booms and busts are the ups and downs of the economy, and they will affect any investments. If you are at a crossroads or need honest advice on the best steps to take right now, it is best to get counsel from a financial expert.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?.
Sonya lee Mitchell is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon. Thank you
fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.
Consider reallocating from real estate to other reliable investments like stock, crypto or precious metals . Severe recessions offer market buying opportunities with caution, as volatility can yield short-term trading prospects. Not financial advice, but it may be wise to invest, as cash isn't ideal in this period.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
nice! once you hit a big milestone, the next comes easier.. who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Margaret Johnson Arndt for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
This happened with the 2004 housing boom - home prices were greatly inflated, meaning people couldn't sell later because they owed more on the house than they could sell for. I know quite a few people who bought then, thinking they were making a good investment to sell later, but it's taken until the COVID housing boom for the prices to come back to those original amounts.
To balance out your real estate holdings, I suggest investing in equities. If you're cautious, even the worst recessions can present fantastic buying opportunities. Additionally, volatility can produce fantastic short-term purchase and sell opportunities. This is not financial advise, but you should buy immediately away because money isn't king right now!
You're right. I was able to diversify my 450K portfolio across markets with the aid of an investment coach, and I was able to use high dividend yield stocks, ETFs, and bonds to generate a little over $830K in net profit.
That's impressive! I could really use the expertise of your advisor. Could you recommend who you work with, please?
Natalie Marie Tuttle is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I looked up her full name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her; hopefully, she gets back to me.
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
I will be happy getting assistance and glad to get the help of one, but just how can one spot a reputable one?
Thanks, I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.
The effects of the downturn are beginning to sink in. People are being impacted by the long-term decline in property prices and the housing market. I recently sold my house in the Sacramento area, and I want to invest my lump-sum profit in the stock market before prices start to rise again. Is now the right moment to buy or not?
If you are new to the market, I recommend seeking professional assistance. The most effective approach to creating a well-organized portfolio is to begin with a professional who is knowledgeable about the turbulent yet profitable market.
A lot of folks downplay the role of professionals until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for a licensed FA and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. 850k so far.
This aligns perfectly with my desire to organize my finances prior to retirement. Could you provide me with access to your advisor?
I'm been guided by “Vivian Carol Gioia” who is widely recognized for her competence and expertise in the financial market. She has a thorough understanding of portfolio diversification and is regarded as an authority in this field.
@@hankmarks69 Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
I remember in 2007 when I was working in real estate seeing people buy homes new from builders with the intention of selling before close of escrow to a new buyer for profit. The crash was so brutal and fast that I remember seeing a lot of these units foreclosed on with the builder plastic still on the carpet.
Most people find it difficult to handle a fall since they are used to bull markets, but if you know where to look and how to maneuver, you can make a size-able profit. Depending on how you intend to enter and exit, yes.
The enduring US stock market bull run evokes a mix of fear and excitement, presenting opportunities with insight, resulting in $780k gains in the past ten months, utilizing a portfolio advisor for a well-defined strategy.
*Camille Alicia Garcia* serves as my portfolio coach, and I discovered her through a feature on Bloomberg. After conducting an online search of her name, I found her website and reached out. You can verify this information independently.
Thank you for the information. I conducted my own research and your advisor appears to be highly skilled and knowledgeable. I've sent her an email and arranged a phone call. Her expertise is impressive, and I'm eagerly anticipating our conversation.
IMHO Most Financial Advisors are actually salesmen. It is interesting that investments that I select somehow always do better than these "specialists". I am strong into Bonds and Real Estate. I strive to make lemonade from lemons and it seems to be working. No losses yet. @@maggysterling33254
Building wealth involves developing good habits like regularly putting money away in intervals for solid investments. Instead of trying to predict and prognosticate the stability of the market and precisely when the change is going to happen, a better strategy is simply having a portfolio that’s well prepared for any eventually, that’s how some folks' been averaging 150K every 7week these past 4months according to Bloomberg.
The professionals presently control the market since they not only have the essential business strategy but also have access to inside information that the general public is not aware of.
I agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is genius! Amidst the financial crisis in 2008, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $2m with the help of my advisor from an initial $350k investment.
@@yeslahykcim impressive gains! how can I get your advisor please, if you dont mind me asking? I could really use a help as of now
I'm being guided by “Leila Simoes Pinto’’ who is widely recognized for her competence and expertise in the financial market. She has a thorough understanding of portfolio diversification and is regarded as an authority in this field.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Imagine buying a house working a decent job and you get your house paid off but you're paying 1000-3000 a month in property taxes a month. That's not owning a home. That's renting it from the government.
Exactly
I am 45 years old with very little set aside for retirement at this point. I have always been curious about the stock market and have witnessed some people who played the game right and retired early because they used the stock market. When I ask them, most said that they invested very little to start with, but their portfolio grew. I do have a significant amount of capital that is required to start up but I have no idea what strategies and direction I need to approach to help me make decent returns
@@CurtisZiegler If you don’t mind, how exactly does this work ? and how profitable have you been ? I would love more info about her services.
@@CurtisZiegler I just looked up this person out on her website of curiosity, surprisingly she seems really proficient, I thought this was just some overrated BS, I appreciate this.
Caveat Emptor! When FINRA people lie, cheat, steal or break the law do they go to prison? No! So why trust them? I got out of the stock markets because in my view if you do not have inside information it is just gambling with money you have already paid tax on. I am involved with Bonds and RE only. It ismy $$$ so I am my own investment advisor.
Are you actual person?
I've been watching the housing market closely, Prices have been skyrocketing for years. It's going to be tough for first-time buyers to enter the market." how can one diversify $280k reserve .
I agree, It's not just the prices, but also the increasing interest rates that are making it more difficult for people to afford homes. With a good FA you can make up your portfolio.
The housing market has always had its ups and downs, but it's true that this time feels different. Having a portfolio manager will save you a lot in the market , My portfolio currently has 200% increase last couple of months with the help of my advisor.
@@Andreallln in times like these, it's crucial to be cautious and not rush into the market , Who is this your FA , my portfolio needs urgent attention , been a lot of lose.
There are many financial coaches who excel in their profession, but for the time being, I employ Monica Amanda McClure because I adore her methods. You can make research and find out more.
I set up a call with her and am really grateful that I did. I copied and entered her name into my browser and it came up in the top search results. I've seen comments about advisers but not one who looks this amazing.
I certainly hope that rents decline as well, because I'm in danger of not being able to afford rent anymore. In fact, I'm making plans to move next year when my lease comes up for renewal, because I'm on a fixed income and cannot possibly afford another huge rent increase. Something has to be done. So many seniors are becoming homeless because of this insanity; living in their vehicles, becoming nomads. It's just cruel!
If worse comes to worse...get a small RV or trailer...a lot cheaper than renting an apartment or house.
There's a glut in rental units that might help rent come down IF illegal immigration doesn't cause a supply issue.
The fertility rate is collapsing everywhere. The housing prices will follow.
30k+ a year to live in your parents old house is wild. That's not tax. That's renting from the government.
In the current economic climate, a home is not the best investment. I've already sold my Boca Grande area home, but I want to invest roughly $200,000 in stocks since I've heard that even in challenging times, investors may turn a profit. Any excellent ideas for stocks?
The truth is that if you make the right picks, you could make killer riches very quickly, although such profit usually needs expertise, as in hedge funds or financial managers. I personally prefer the latter.
Having a financial manager is the best way to go about the stock market right now, especially for near retirees, I've been in touch with a coach for awhile now mostly and I made over $800K within a short time
How can I reach this manager of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings
*Alicia Estela Cabouli* my financial counselor, is a well-educated and seasoned expert in the financial industry. She is regarded as an authority in this sector and has a deep understanding of portfolio diversification.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
I truly hate the whole house hoarding aspect of real estate investing, and I wish we humans did not turn this into a business. Homeownership should be about living in your home having a roof over our head, not buying up all these houses and renting them out to make a profit. It’s awful and disgusting! Also, I truly honestly believe interest rates will be stay at 6%. I don’t think we will ever see 3% anymore in our living lives this day and age. 3% is forever gone!
Human nature will always tend towards feudalism. People want power more than money, and forcing people into a position where they depend on you for shelter is power.
This is why they are called “landlords” and not “land managers” or “land people”.
its crazy to own a house and pay $50k per year on taxes, can you imagine if you take every property on the market just in one city how much money the Gov makes ??
Too high.
They want to get their grubby hands on every bit of money they can. And every new tax starts out with "its just for the rich". Income tax was supposed to only be for the rich, for instance. Most of these taxes also didn't exist pre 1913.
Where you been the last two years. I been ready for this glorious day for two years. After I saw interest rates at 3%, and trillions being pumped into the economy, and people spending money like drunken sailers. I kicked back rented, and watched this party start while eating pop corn. Between people buying over valued real estate, and the Airbnb crash. This is going to be awesome. I’m going to scooping homes for dirt cheap while everyone is loosing there jobs and everyone is under water. It’s worse then 2008.
Property taxes should not be based on sale value but on actual municipal costs.
World Economic Forum says: You will own nothing and be happy. I'm sure this is all intentional.
You vill own nothing and you vill be happy
@@FrappuccinoDrinks I will create a formal argument as to why it is morally acceptable (and preferable) for me to kill myself.
But I don't recommend that, and won't do that. Struggle onward and upward, instead.
"This time is different".
😂
The dichotomy between old house and new house is nonsense. Houses are not static; old houses can be transformed into modern ones. It's called renovation.
It seems like all of these things can be pretty easily contested. There are only about 2 million Airbnb properties in the US. Even if we can expect that to drop by 50% in the coming years, that's just a drop in the bucket for the total market. It is alarmist to call this a "catastrophic event". The same can be said about the "flood" of houses from dead baby boomers coming onto the market. All of those baby boomers have children who are millennials who have never been able to afford a home. It doesn't make sense to say that all those houses will just be put onto the market by those who inherit them, when the generation inheriting those properties largely don't even have their own properties yet.
Used to think investors lose out amid crash, meanwhile some make profits, I also thought folks went out of business during the great depression, but some went into biz. Bottom line, there's recession and also money to be made for everyone, we determine.
well said, times are crazy now, and in my opinion, everyone needs a sort of investment planning in order to thrive forward. ideally, using a financial advisor can help avoid any fiasco
Right, most folks downplay the role of advisors, until burnt by their own emotions. I remember early 2020 just after the rona-outbreak, I needed to stay afloat, hence researched for license advisors. Thankfully, I came across someone of remarkable qualities and after subsequent investments so far, I'm only 25% short of my first million dollar.
Can't share much here, the advisor assisting me is Katherine Nance Dietz, she's well qualified and established, hence it shouldn't be a hassle finding her details on the internet, simply research.
@@M.Morgan curiously copied and pasted her full name on my browser, easily spotted her site and was able to send my message across.. thank you for putting this out, it has rekindled the fire to my goal
right on Mr dude man. then some wake up with cancer. but deny its anything worse than a muscle strain
The problem with Canada’s housing market is that politicians own many expensive houses.. They will NEVER allow their investments to decrease in value. They will ruin every Canadian, to benefit themselves. The Canadian government only cares about setting themselves up for the future. We are all doomed.. 😢
SATS🟧
One thing people should know is that a crash and bullish market provides equal high-yield potential, it's all about information and strategy application, I've seen folks make huge 7 figure profit in crashing market and pull it off much easily in bull market. Personally I’ve made over $310k this year. There are lots of opportunities in the market, unfortunately people are not utilizing them.
What opportunities are there in the market and how do I profit from it?
@@DeniseGarcia897 There are quite a number of undervalued stocks and Defi assets available in the market, get in on them. You can also short the market, there’s a lot that can be done to maximize profit.
@@Luna_Lockhardt I'm very interested in investing and I have good sum of which I'm willing to put in with the right information. Tried investing in stocks myself a few times but I’ve never been in luck picking stocks.
@@BrettGregory299 Having a broker is essential for making high yields investment, portfolio growth and diversification as well as Capital preservation which is just as important as the stocks you buy.
The mistake most newbies make is rushing into trading without adequate knowledge or guide
Some people also don't like living in apartments and all their rules... Sometimes we want the independent of our own house and not having a renter in your business all the time or annoying neighbors
I normally like a lot of this RUclipsr's content, and I even respect this content, even if I think his personal biases have clouded his ability to see the future. I have some of the worst problems imaginable as a home owner. The seller covered problems up and fooled inspectors.
I'D STILL RATHER OWN A HOME!
You got it totally right! Renting, it was a never ending sleu of other people's on how I live. I'm a pretty nice guy who's actually pretty well loved in most of any community...but owning without a oversite board to embezzle my funds, AKA a HOA, is 2nd to the best of the way to live.
The best would be if I had a country home without any city caring what I was up to at all.
@@tradingnichols2255 I like to live in a non HOA house as well, but most of them are old and stucked away in the country side. Also, the last house I own has a huge problem with rat and ground squirrel invasion because it is right next to a forest. Right now, I live in a HOA community single house, and I feel very good not having to deal with the elements from nature.
You still have annoying neighbors in a house 🏡
@@tradingnichols2255most people never “OWN” a home. They own a large bank note.
@@vicluu8026 Wow, do you have a point. Never ending problems with nature here. It's not really a forrest, but it is a lot of trees. It's why I fell in love with it, but in this part of the country nature fights you a lot harder than where I grew up.
Also the coming focus on energy efficiency and AI smart homes will mean older homes will need to be updated or face higher tax rates. Owning a home for investment is a lot like going into business where one of your partners is the bank and the other is the government. They write all the rules and you're just hoping they don't get desperate enough to come after your assets.
That is all buisnesses 😂
I've been waiting for this bubble to pop for years. Prices are ridiculous.
I don't think it will pop. I think the banks will buy everything up and we will just rent. If you can't afford the property anymore the bank will let you give it back and stay paying rent.
Do you think price be back to 5 years back? It would be still higher.
Unless you have cash to buy outright you wouldn’t be in a position to take advantage of the bubble popping
@@venkatakishore8941why is that? The banks wouldn’t give loans if there was a crash?
Wow, as someone patiently saving and watching housing go insane levels, this is really reassuring thanks. It gets depressing to see such diabolic state while others my age flaunt wealth through multiple houses etc. It's hard to distinguish between jubilant RE marketing hype from those with stakes in the industry vs actual advice on the state of the market. Great analysis, and cool background!
Property taxes are reassessed every year not one time at purchase
You said it was goig to crash 5 years ago
in 2 weeks
@@marusdod3685 y 2 weeks
Pandemic relief handouts saved the day
I think the average buyer will be forced to rent and be stuck in this limbo while the landlords will just about survive to the point that they’ll avoid selling there house due to the uncertainty and likely hold until something impactful forces them to sell like a larger spike in interest rates or delinquency rates
I'm a homeowner, I want housing prices to tank too.
If I sell my house...I'm buying a house which means both sides of the equations are cheaper, I'm not losing anything
And it means I pay less in property taxes.
Low house prices are a win for everyone.
I think a lot of people are missing a big piece to the puzzle... how is everyone going to be renting their glorious home without investors owning them in the first place. And more importantly, how many of these rennovated beautiful homes will be available for everyone? If the demand is huge for a rennovated house the rent for those will go through the roof. Simple supply and demand.
These "old" properties can't become obsolete unless there is a surpluss of housing.. (as you are all thinking open concept new style homes) will not be available for everyone seeking a home and thus the demand for a roof over everyones head will still be a necessity 50+years from now.
12:43 and on top of that they know that if they were to get an older home and renovate it to their own desired specs they'd have the hassle on their hands of doing all the work redoing everything, but often in Europe for example once they decide to make these big sorts of (structural) changes they are subject to the newest rules around how a house has to be build so ultimately you'd have this impossible challenge of not only modernising the place but also having to get the house to a point where it would actually pass the latest rules which is basically impossible without redoing everything so essentially demolishing it and starting from scratch, and that's only allowed if the house is not old or famous enough to fall under monument protection which would completely disallow you to make any structural changes to the house whatsoever. So it's clear why people would rather scope out a place they already like and just rent that, instead of consenting to this headache in their lives, especially since these days there are so many better things to do and also because, and that was not even mentioned explicitly, if you own a house you have to really like everything about it, be willing to ride or die with it's location, hope on nice neighbours etc. since you're essentially tying yourself to that place indefinitely and binding up a big chunk of money in that place, often not easily or quickly liquidable, so you'd really have to absolutely love the place with everything about it and best case be able to pay it outright, which most people probably can't, to not tie yourself down further signing up for a lifetime of debt repayment.
New home sales increased because the pricing is closer new to old. Why loose bids on old when you can build new for almost same price. Only big difference is waiting for the build
Even if the home prices goes down 15 to 20% that will not be good enough for me to buy any house yet the reason is that I sold my 18 months old house for 33% profit in August 2021 and the same house is now priced 90% more than I paid for . Therefore that house has no business to almost double in 3 years. So in short if the same house doesn’t lose 30% of its value. I am going to rent until then and also the mortgage rate have to drop to 4 to 4.5% for me to buy another house beside I love renting now: no taxes no insurance no landscaping bills or pool maintenance or exterminating bills or any repairs bills. Imagine the trouble free living. Plus I have the option of living in different states every couple of years it means I am not stuck living next to the same neighbors the rest of my life.
Your savings will be defeated & with no home investment.
"It's a good time buy your home " - All the Real Estate agents
Believe it or not, i had to turn down all of my friends and close acquaintances in purchasing a home. I told them how it is and thankfully they've all listened.
And I thought you were quitting! I got so much freaking VALUE out of this one! Honestly, well done.
Entertaining, no matter what you’re talking about 😅
Thank you for all the great info and your insight.
WEF: "You will own nothing and you'll be happy."
The interest rate argument was debunked instantly when you revealed that we’ve been through much higher interest rates without housing crashes. The other two are good points, but I don’t think they’ll make up for the lack of new construction, the insane increase in immigration and the absurdly high amount of quantitative easing that has undoubtedly sent inflation into assets.
That last point about people wanting new homes instead of old homes making the prices more competitive… that’s the opposite of supply and demand fyi. If people really prefer the newer homes over the old ones, the old ones will be cheaper and the new ones will increase in value due to demand. Maybe you were tired by the end of the video or something but it’s the least rational thing I’ve heard you say in a while.
Also “as soon as people realize those rates aren’t coming down anytime soon they’re going to be selling those houses.” What? That’s why people hang onto their house. Do you know any homeowners or families lol?
He was probably talking about people whose mortgage rates are currently in the 7-8% range, and who bought because they were led to believe that "the Fed will have to cut soon" and therefore they'll be able to refinance, resulting in more affordable monthly payments.
Maybe but I feel like the number of people who locked in during 2020 at 3% probably exceeds in scale the number of people who thought “Gee, rates are 8 per cent right now. Let’s buy a house on anticipation rates will go down to 0 and I’ll just refinance”. I mean a main point is that at 8% people can’t afford the payments.
I pay under $400 a year but I live in an old farm house in the south in the US.
Were would you buy something like that now in the USA. Some advice? Louisiana? Old cheap house with a few acres. I am looking. Kentucky?
@@davecopp9356 just rural areas in the south. Make sure it’s not in city limits and it looks kinda shitty. One thing to worry about though is repairing the places. Not a ton of contractors in rural areas. Plumbers are scarce and overworked. If you can do your own repairs then you’ll probably be alright.
@@matfalkner Thank you.
this is missing the offset: increasing demand due to immigration, lack of new houses being built, increasing cost of building houses, etc.
Renting apartments is a nightmare. Having to deal with absolutely shitty neighbors, the quality of apartments slowly get worse overtime as many properties hardly do any necessary up keep, and worse of all, the property management team themselves which lack service skills, competency and have high turnover (also a lot of teams now I’ve seen work remotely and not even on premises in the same city or state). I don’t see renting apartments as the future. The privacy alone from being in a home is priceless. Maybe we’ll see more rentering or maybe even rent to own a home as the future but I really don’t see homes themselves going away ever. People live privacy and moreso the ability to customize and add to their property without needing to have a landlord or property manager involved.
I’m closing in on retirement, and I'd love to move from Minnesota to a warmer climate, but home prices are ridiculous now, and mortgage price skyrocketing on a roll... do I wait for a crash, or diversify my assets into stock
Consider hiring financial advisors, estate planners or tax experts. They can provide specialized knowledge and help you navigate complex financial decisions. Right now treasuries and HYSAs pay 4.5-5% risk free, do that.
Agreed, instead of panic or following a hearsay, I simply adopted the service of an advisor early 2020 amid covid-outbreak, and so far, I've attained my most measurable financial milestone of $650k after subsequent investments.
Nice! once you hit a big milestone, the next comes easier.. who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?
I take guidance from a California-based wealth advisor *Sharon Louise Count* ..you're most likely going to find her basic info on the internet, she's firmly established and well qualified.
When I curiously typed in her entire name to search online, I saw that her site was highly ranked and really professional. Thank you for sharing this; it has stoked my desire to achieve my objective again.
Been saying it since I was in my early 20's. Their plan:
1. Lower the interest rate to practically zero.
2. Create a market with "infinite growth".
3. Make everyone take larger loans than they can handle to join in.
4. Crash the market and raise the interest again.
Now everybody who fell for it gotta pay the banks the rest of their lives without owning anything of value.
End times. Yes all orchestrated
3. is not reality. Can't "make" or force people to take large loans, although banks can entice them. Ultimately, a bubble crash will result in defaults and bankruptcies.
Worth noting that the great depression was also likely done on purpose, just so one class of people could buy up entire swaths of property for pennies on the dollar.
People who don't believe in borrowing essentially don't contribute to the problem, nor suffer the consequences of the crash.
@@eazymethod01 If someone buys all cash (fiat currency btw), because they did not borrow, and the crash happens, they lose a ton of equity in their home thus are still suffering from the consequences.
In Washington and Oregon property taxes are based on assessed value every year, not purchase price.. how many states/counties actually assess it based on purchase price?
With the lack of single family homes on the market housing price will not have a significant drop in prices..the cost of building single family home has almost stopped building and with more people waiting to buy there will be a scarcity of already built homes keeping prices up for years to come
I saw a company advertising the concept of mass produced homes, which would be porported to cost a fraction of traditional building given the materials and method of constructions.
$100K/Year property tax is INSANE!!!
EVERYONE PANIC
50K per year on property taxes is totally Insane! Someone renting those houses would have to charge 50K/12 = 4.166K a Month Just to pay for property taxes!!! Insanity! that does not even account for the remaining renting prices! That is indeed completely insane ... about the financial comments on rates ...total and complete ignorance akin to others like meet kevin and the like ... for those listening just forget about ... rates are going to Zero and sooner then anyone think ... and it is not for a good reason on the contrary.
There's a bunch of MODERN houses overseas in Spain, etc. Not so much in the states. 300k for a new modern home 15-30 minutes from the beach. USA it's 400k with 8% rates and now you're stuck for 20 years.
In Ecuadorian cities like Cuenca 1/3 of the houses are inhabited.
@@lvovodessa how many us dollars does a medium house cost in Cuenca , Equador?
@@romanlukichev4971 Around usd 120.000.
They want to buy the houses so we can rent them
Wishful thinking, but no it hasn't. Housing market is still heavily propped up by the fed, Property values are still expected to increase along with mortgage rates. When and if the housing market does actually crash (and a crash is by definition a sudden drop greater then 20%). It will take everything else down with it, most of the stock market massively overvalued with the P/E of most S&P500 companies being insanely high. With political officials its a game of hot potato, they all wanna bandaid it and pretend everything is fine so they can pass it off to their successors and repeat the process, no one want's to be caught holding it and assume responsibility when things finally go tits up.
Stop saying “the high interest rates” !! Interest rates are now at historically normal levels.
Good point of view brother;)
Call me insane, but I'm going to live in NetCafes 😮
German is a very easy language to pick up coming from English, force your kids to learn it as it might give them an advantage as all the countries with dying populations might fight giving incentives to get workers to come there, especially those with higher skill levels. German Socialism is better than, the cold shoulder of Uncle Sam even in Maui.
@@seaneustace9838 I'm a fan of the 1930s german socialism
So I'm stuck renting a studio apartment
Will onschain be listed in gate io kucoin or something now, thats what they say?
That’s funny because I’ve been saying this since the 90s… if you’d waited you’d have lost out. Of course, eventually it will crash in the way you say, but not before everything else crashes. So, no. No crash in housing. Crash, the big crash, will come in another sector first. Which one? No idea. No one knows. But come it will.
Commercial real estate?
Techlead's next video: Making videos about things being over, is over.
😂😂
Hahaha I've got instant coffee bubbling out of my nostrils with laughter. Grrrrr8 comment.
Gold price closed over 2k last Friday. A warning! Anyone watching? It 's trying to say something for sure.
You see a lot of articles on finance and news websites claiming prices will stay high because of low inventory. But from my perspective, that belief may well be a wild card as I have already hunched that there may be some speculative artificial inflation going on which the media clings to and propagates as these financial mainstream folk tend to have invested interest in keeping the market high. This RUclipsrs details and reasoning are definitely interesting, albeit some factors he mentions are currently relatively local to specific areas. Common sentiment among people my age or younger is certainly that housing is a human need and shouldn’t be used as a casino, but I feel like that concept is one which is still politically divisive as conservatives tend to like free (and erratic) markets. So what unfolds in the near future may boil down to who is in charge in politics and could defy popular sentiment. But if a wave of older folks in a large generation do pass away, that may certainly bring the market back down to earth. I’m just not sure if baby boomers passing homes down is a factor which will unfold quickly enough to register. Very interesting stuff
your observation at @12:30 doesn't take into account the "incentives" the new home builders are offering: in-house financing at lower rates, rate buy downs, closing cost assistance, price reduction allowances, the gimmicks go on and on. One could even say, new home builders are muddying the waters on true pricing by artificially keeping the comps high!
This bubble has lasted way longer than I expected...decades....so who knows when it's gonna burst.
Housing crash takes years. It started June 2022.
It will pop when they want it to pop. Its all manipulated as with most markets. Free market capitalism is a myth.
If you believe that their ultimate goal is to control whole populations, then its logical that when they are ready, markets will crash jobs will be lost and wealth will also be destroyed.
Exactly, the housing market is tooooooo resilient
Decades?
yeah agreed.
i see no reason to speculate in housing imo, whether it goes up or down,
stay neutral and bet on something else instead (unless you're committed to be rly good at real estate...).
"Homes are for Living, NOT speculating. " -- Chinese President Xi JinPing
Not in this decade
so then why do they constantly keep tearing down empty buildings and building them over and over again?
Renting absolutely sucks. You have no control over your payments, no control over your neighbors, not building equity/appreciation. I see hardly any upside in renting.
"Real Estate is a lot like NFTs: Everyone thinks they're rich, until they're not." - Techlead
Bingo 😂
you frame this as a catastrophe. as a millennial who dreams of having a house someday, this is a godsend. forget the interest rates, I'll cross that bridge when I come to it. what a _wild_ concept that you would live in the place you own.
I would rather own a house and the land around it and remodel as needed than rent endlessly and pay someone else's mortgage
If you are childless nomad, home ownership is a burden. But if you are family, a home and a stable community are important. Social trends point to more disruption.
Can you review the onschain, I want to buy it
Hey Techlead, thanks for explaining these concepts in simple terms. The insight is rational. Haven’t checked on this channel in a few years but glad to see you’re still well. comment section seems full of AI though
"Everybody thinks they're rich... until they're not." Love this line.
Omg
In the Nashville area, for the first time in over a decade, it's cheaper to rent than to buy and pay a mortgage. The interest rate spike definitely contributed to this.
It’s cheaper to own than to rent in New Zealand
People probably wont sell and builders arent building. You wont have a crash, short supply and huge demand.
Many sources I read state that inventory is low. I am mildly skeptical about how low it truly is, versus an idea that no, they never resumed frantically building left and right like it’s 2005. However if they are correct that supply is really that low, the lack of adequate building during the boom of the 2010s means that if a recession happens as I think it will, and building cuts back even more followed by another round of quantitative easing, then the outcome of that will be soaring prices into the stratosphere. But at that point you’d have sharp decline in homeownership and possibly, homelessness increases. I think most likely it’s less of a supply issue outright, and more of a “too many luxury homes not enough simple homes”.
If there are cash buyers tells you that demands is still high. Imagine if interest rates go down.
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent…” - John Maynard Keynes
Maynard James Keenan
you forget that a family, because everyone is divorced now needs two houses, not one. just like they pushed women into the workplace to double the taxes and half the salaries now these ladies are arrogant, strong and independent and will want a house of their own and the man will either have a small house for himself or live in the street. i don't think the house prices will go down.
Women in the workforce created crazy inflation all on its own. If a household now has 2 incomes, you can now charge double for everything!
im so glad I sold my condo in 2019 at a profit!
Buy now all you can. When rates go down prices will skyrocket!!!!!!!!!
I feared a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $370k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.
You are not alone we can no longer afford our mortgage, husband wants us to travel or relocate/I am proposing cashing in, walking away and renting while putting the rest in the stock market.
Consider reallocating from real estate to stocks. Severe recessions offer market buying opportunities with caution, as volatility can yield short-term trading prospects. Not financial advice but it may be wise to invest, as cash isn't ideal in this period. I simply adopted the service of an advisor early 2020 amid covid-outbreak, and so far, I've attained my most measurable financial milestone of $650k after subsequent investments.
Good to know what's going on. As a kid, I thought everyone always knew what was going on. Now, I realize most people don't know.
@@CarlosDavid-lf3ch This is quite huge ! much more info needed please, what did you invest in?
I actually have a diversified port0lio overseen by a fiduciary advis0r and fixed income strategist at that 'Johanna Grace Jackson' well established and you'd find her professional bio on the net.
finally a teahlead vid
I just closed on a house in NorCal for $800K. Property tax rate is 1.1%. Comes with a detached 2-car garage that has a full bathroom inside so plumbing is in place. This is in addition to the attached three car garage that are walled up but easily convertible back to a garage.
I’m converting the two car part of the garage to an attached junior ADU; the 1-car part will be reverted back. The detached garage is going to be converted to a 2-bd;2-bth apartment. It will cost no more than $150K for both. Permitting will take a year to 1.5 years so plenty of time to save back up and connect with material suppliers.
My TOTAL payment (20% down) including prop tax, insurance, P&I, etc is $4900/month. That is understandably a tough payment to swallow, however, the house would rent for $4500-$5000/month right now so just the fact that I’m at rent parity makes this house a steal in a market where the average mortgage is 35%-50% more than rent for a comparable house.
But that’s not even the tip of this gold mine. In about 2 years time I will have a permitted and fully constructed ADU and JADU. The ADU will easily rent for $2800/month and the JADU will be an AirBNB (I prefer it to be a short term rental since it’s attached) and the JADU at a modest 55% vacancy is projected to net an additional $2200/month. If my math is correct, that’s a $5000/month cash flow for a house that costs me $4900/month which comes out to a free house with a cherry on top.
I’m inclined to say “you’re dead wrong about this market” and yada yada but no honestly keep spreading the fear and convince people to sit on the sidelines to wait for a train that’s already left the station. I want ALL these deals to myself so keep making these great videos! 😉
That's not how property tax works it gets assessed each year to market value. I wish it worked where it was assessed just once when you purchased the house but no it doesn't work that way.
he is serious this time
maybe.
I agree with older homes being too stuffy, small bedrooms, limited windows/light. Older homes were built as a roof over someone's head. Modern homes are built to be useful and pleasant for people. Older homes have poor insulation, plumbing/pipes which may burst and may not have AC.
It's over? It has never even begun for most people.
Move people, move. My three bedroom brick house was only 168,000 in 2021. It sits on half an acre in a really nice neighborhood in the middle of a nice small town. None of the big city problems here. Gas right now is 2.84$. 99% of what I need is seven minutes from my house and if it isn’t it’ll be at my door in a few days. Do the smart thing and get out
I FUCKING HOPE SO !
WE CAN FINALLY BUY SOMETHING...ANYTHING !
You may be able to buy, but they will get you with insane property taxes!
the ‘new rule’ on tax assessments is not new in most places. Maybe California specific?
In my opinion, a housing market crash is imminent due to the high number of individuals who purchased homes above the asking price despite the low interest rates. These buyers find themselves in precarious situations as housing prices decline, leaving them without any equity. If they become unable to afford their homes, foreclosure becomes a likely outcome. Even attempting to sell would not yield any profits. This scenario is expected to impact a significant number of people, particularly in light of the anticipated surge in layoffs and the rapid increase in the cost of living.
I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!
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Houses are not getting sold as quickly as they used to, here in my town in Norway. Interest rates are high, consumption of goods and services in down, but in my experience, denial is a powerful thing.
Denial is incredibly powerful, and it’s made only more powerful when malfeasant ”experts” are willing to lie to the public, because it benefits them and their friends.
Denial of what?
@@timm285 That economies around the world are absolutely wrecked?
or in fact, denial mode is what market manipulators or policy makers want people to go through.. a slow sliding.
The only houses selling houses that are paid for. No sane person who can do math is going to sell her house to move into another one and give up his 3-4% mortgage for a 7-8% mortgage and double his payment.
Good. Housing should be for one thing, and one thing only - To live in. Not as an investment, not as a hotel - to live in. It is a basic human necessity.
A bubble when overly extended pops.
Who’s going to buy these homes?
blackrock , so we can all rent at high price
The housing market will crash for sure anytime between 2023 and 2090