Most of my non-safety critical interventions are all caused by bad map data. The vision system can see it can make a left turn at the stoplight but the map data says it must turn right and then I make a u-turn. Luckily, the new software sometimes ignores the bad map data, which is hopeful. However, they should still fix the bad map data. Or just not use it.
Tracking: I think they mean the car itself tracks better, as in FSD set a path and they have redesigned the controllers for the steering so it can track the computed path more smoothly.
Choosing to not show "degraded performance due to weather" less often does not mean they improved anything with regard to actual performance in poor weather
I had not seen that X post, so thank you, John! A couple of comments. First, 3x context scaling is very important. Memory is good. But prediction is better and model size for planning what is best to do next, based on the recent past recall (and maybe next video-frames predictions/anticipations), is very important as well. Second, we all know that space craft (like Voyager or New Horizons or Cassini) seem to get smarter as time goes by (because the programmers send them updates). Using a bigger AI model to improve a smaller model is similar, but a lot faster! And third, audio inputs (and outputs too) seem absolutely essential. Surely that will be directional and dopplering as well as basic sound type discrimination. And, of course, with LLM interfaces, allow you to talk to your car from outside or inside. What a great list Ashok Elluswamy must have already!! 😊
Great content! When I read the point about Integrated unpark, reverse and park, I immediately think of AT HOME USE where you pull up to driveway garage door and get out to use front entrance. If this is your routine or you have a large group of occupancy and there’s another car in the garage and you’re afraid of any damage…you could exit the vehicle and engage this. The car will enter and park itself. The same in the opposite direction. This couple with the Garay door opener it’s what I think it means. EDIT: right after I submitted my comment You gave te same explanation.
I use to be happy seeing these videos of FSD improvement. Now when I see them I feel sad that I have HW3 and worry I will far too far behind with each update HW4 gets.
2021 MYLR HW3 as well. At this point, Tesla needs a recall to upgrade our HW3 and possibly cameras. They are each on completely different playing fields. HW3 is Varsity ball while HW4 is Major League. Once you drive in all HW4 car, it becomes clear as day to see. Keep in mind that these are still in emulation mode.
The plan is for HW3 to be fully FSD capable. At earnings, Elon said that if HW3 ultimately can’t handle it, Tesla will upgrade the processor to AI4 for anyone who bought FSD with their car.
@brianp8384 they should do it sooner rather than later. Especially since those owners paid $10k, $12k, and $15k for the same software everyone gets for $8k now.
There is a story that was spread everywhere by the media of a tesla hitting a deer and not even slowing down afterward. It was a smaller deer and it was a small footprint. The driver didn't see it either.
@@franklin519 That's actually the ideal thing to do, especially after the deer has already been hit, but possibly even when the deer waders in front. Slamming on your brakes gets you rear ended. Swerving means you might hit another car or the centre divider, or roll the car. There was a woman who stopped for ducks or geese on the highway. The motorcycle carrying two passengers rear ended her and at least one of them died. She charged, fined and put in jail for doing that. Ideally, FSD would know better than a person the exact performance of the car, and whether or not it's safe to swerve into another lane of slam on the brakes if no one is behind you. For now, though, that was probably the best call.
I was in the Costco parking lot a few days ago and there were zero empty parking spots. Additionally, if you did want to park you’d either have to be watching for someone loading groceries or be following a person pushing a shopping cart. I wonder how FSD would deal with the situation
I get pretty frustrated with my Tesla at times but I have to admit, this video gives me some hope that it might be worth hanging around for a while with Tesla and the gang
Glad they finally acknowledge that the bad weather chimes are annoying, wonder how long it takes them to realize that for the b-pillar side cameras occluded messages at night. Constantly on and off at night.
This was one of the best videos I’ve watched in a while! Thank you for helping me understand all of this much better. I’m not an engineer, so I can get lost in the sauce on some of this. You did a fantastic job of distilling this down. You may want to try teaching one day John 😂😂😂
Not necessarily rare occasion. I live in Alabama, oncoming pickup trucks often come over into my lane a little. It is to be expected and one shouldn't slam on the brakes ever time it happens.
There are still a lot of things FSD isn't doing. Many are distracted by it getting better at the things it's been doing for years, but I want to see new capabilities that should have been solved years ago - potholes, reading all road signs, three-point turns, reverse, etc. Until it can do everything it needs to do, even if it's just starting to do it badly, we can't even really tell how long it will be until it's feature completely.
@davidbeppler3032 I'm comparing it to what it needs to be able to do to be feature complete. Nothing to do with what any other company is doing so I don't even know why you're bringing that up. If the next company to solve autonomy is 10000 years out, it doesn't change the fact that robotaxi can't happen if it can do a three-point turn or read road signs etc. right?
@@truhartwood3170 at the end of the day, the persistant problems are symptoms of a bigger issue. Personally; I think we can see this particular AI “s-curve” hitting it’s plateau. It may be we need more compute but I think it’s a fundamental flaw in how we are addressing the issue.
Tesla first released the Summon feature in 2016. Initiating it remotely, it would open the garage door, park the car (and in tight spots), and then close the garage door. Exiting the garage did those steps in reverse - helpful if you didn’t have room to squeeze into your car. (And people posted vids back then of their cars doing this via Apple Watch voice commands.). I didn’t realize garage summoning was no longer supported - I guess it’s not?
I was thinking the same thing. But the electronics attached to the 2 analog signal wires on the speaker would have to be able to switch to listen mode and to perform an analog to digital conversion of the signal it hears. Do you think Tesla has that capability in the interface to its NHTSA mandated underbody speaker?
This is the best discussion I've seen so far outlining why HW3 has reached end of life in terms of its capabilities. Although I think you still down played the significance. For far too long this Tesla fan community has bought into the narrative that nearly all Teslas will become L4 robotaxis with "just a software update". That narrative has finally and definitively been proven false. HW3 cars are not L4 capable and never were going to be. Tesla included hardware in their cars in order to COLLECT DATA to DEVELOP FSD. That was the primary investment. Everyone should remain skeptical that HW3 cars will get hardware upgrades. The primary goal is to get the Cybercab feature complete, into production, and on the roads by the millions. The existing fleet is secondary. Upgrading the existing fleet's hardware is an open question and people should not assume it is worth the significant investment that Tesla would have to make in order to do so. People should also not assume that HW4 will become full fledged robotaxis. What is the proof of my skepticism? The Cybercab. It has a front bumper camera (no blind spot), integrated automatic doors (without it a passenger can brick the car by simply leaving the door open), & also AI5 (which will be 48v, I guarantee it). People greatly underestimate the significant difference between ADAS and L4. I think HW4 cars will achieve very high percentages of intervention free drives and hopefully L3 (likely L3 highway). That doesn't mean they can or should be allowed to operate without a driver in the car. That is a step change which has many requirements. It isn't just about what the car can do but also what it can't do (front bumper blind spot, ability to clean the cameras, ability to understand spoken passenger instructions, ability to close the doors if left open, etc, etc). The Cybercab will have all the hardware and software needed to function as a driverless taxi in as many scenarios as possible. The existing fleet does not without significant enhancements. So I would very much like to see more discussions about what is necessary to send your Tesla out into the world without a driver, from a hardware as well as software perspective. Understandably the focus has been on the software but the hardware on the existing fleet is still lacking. What mods do they need? Are they or will they become available? What are the risks if those hardware mods aren't done? Also what does "feature complete" mean for ADAS vs L3 vs L4 when considering both software and hardware? Can a car with a blind spot be L4 or even city street L3? Can a car with no software integrated automatic doors or camera cleaning hardware be a driverless taxi? This isn't about FUD. It is about objective analysis.
@@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl Slow and cumbersome, not efficient, too expensive, too heavy, bad software, many recalls, no OTA. Even a VW ID.4 is much better in every aspect than a Ford Mustang Mach-E.
@@wolfgangpreier9160Its better in every way and real fun,cant wait to buy a cheap used Mustang Mach1!Just an extrem hot and perfect car!A Hyundai Inster Ev would be great as a second Car,and a Wulling Air Ev for Here in Bali!
They might just be waiting for government approval, while we are beta testing everything for you. That and getting it to drive on the wrong side of the road. ;-)
RHD not a high priority unfortunately. Here in the UK we still have the original motorway code with wonderful features like "cameras obscured" on the motorway at night, so no lane changes when indicating; "keep right" announcements when passing junctions; suddenly jerking the wheel to the left when it decides it wants to take the junction when it shouldn't; no enhanced auto-park / ASS. Yes I have FSD on my 2019 M3P which definitely wasn't worth getting ;)
I just want the ability to be able to always adjust the speed manually! Why can't you do that? Design flaw. My car on FSD does 58 in a 40 all the time. So I disengage and tell it "speeding again." 18 over the limit is not good. I do not want a ticket!
@@davidbeppler3032 Tesla made it clear recently that FSD means that the AI has ultimate control and that all human inputs are requests only as human input is subject to error. You can use the scroll wheel to select a higher maximum speed up to 40% above the speed limit, but this is only highest speed that the AI can use. It can and will use a lower speed most of the time. If you want to be able to control the actual speed yourself, then you must disengage FSD
Regarding Audio inputs: The Mic could be the cabin mic, the same one that the driver / operator uses to talk to the GUI or to indicate to FSD as to where to go.
Thanks for the detailed review of the changelog. since a controller is something that takes a reference and the actual value, it looks like the network is outputting the reference (=desired) and a controller is comparing that to what the car is actually doing, and steers accordingly. it does not make sense to implement/train this behavior in the network because it is well understood mathematically and will depend on the vehicle dynamics (weight etc), which you don't want to train for, it's a very small abstraction layer between network and car controls.
15:18 Yes, I've often thought some of FSD's behaviors were like a kid with PTSD... and what you are describing: overtraining on crisis scenarios could account for some of that.
11:45 a lot of supposition there, but you may have a good point. Working from a "solved" big model to smaller workable smaller model might be possible. Not sure it will be as good.
1:35 My car had HW4 when I bought her, and now she has AI4 when discussing FSD updates moving forward. No need to apologize for being tripped up by the branding. :)
Gotta face it. Most people don’t care about FSD at this point. Most average Tesla owners don’t know the capabilities of their cars. FSD on HW3 in 1 year or 3 makes no difference to them. To most people this is a clever party trick right now.
Really great breakdown. I’m still optimistic about Ai3 long term on my 2019 model 3, but will be disappointed to be left behind in the immediate/near future term with updates and performance increases.
Three questions. 1) If the care has an accident while using FSD or FUD (full unsupervised driving), who is at fault? 2) Will we reach a point when there are ZERO "critical interventions," because if not I would not want to just drive around guessing when the car might suddenly do something crazy. 3) is there a back-up driving option that could help overcome that last issue of the "critical interventions." Would a separate autonomous system overlay - possibly a robot with an autonomous AI system be enough to fully replace drivers - safely? If so, that is a great use case for the robots.
Drove 58 miles home last night city/ highway and used FSD in my 23 model S. Absolutely no interventions for 57 miles until I got 1 mile from our house. On a main road with no vehicles in front or behind me, the car phantom braked for no reason. I couldn’t believe it. Made no sense at all. I was ready to tout FSD with so much praise and then stupid incidents like this happen. WTF?
I agree context is in the past, but the past can help you drive better in the future. A car has been weaving in the lane in front of you. Maybe you want to back up a little bit as an example .But not in the way he was saying. FSD does really pour at that midterm choosing the right lane planning, which I don't think will be helped with the context window.
That’s not what he said. HW 3 owners will have to wait before they get an update that has similar, but probably not as robust, features that the software in the AI4 cars have had for awhile. But their is a possibility that at some point Tesla will throw in the towel and admit that HW3 cars will never have FSD that is unsupervised and can be used in a Tesla robotaxi fleet like we were led to believe.
One thing they don't talk about, and which does not require better hardware, is the ability to explicitly specify a desired route to a destination, without requiring a stop at the intermediate points. This is not important or even desirable for Robotaxis, which is probably why they don't include it.
Tracking. I think they are talking about the jittering of vehicles, stuff in the world. As we see something, like a car, jumping around on screen. Smoothing out the world jitters should greatly improve planning, predicting what moving objects will do.
Sweet! I’ve been a fan of FSD and I’ll admit I’m lucky that where I’ve used it hasn’t been too difficult. I have had phantom breaking but I always have hands on the wheel and foot hovering over the accelerator and I catch it asap. There’s only really one spot where FSD reads the wrong speed limit so I’m used to picking up the speed when I drops from 65 to 35 then back I’ll to 65.
"Smoother more accurate tracking" is perhaps about the controller which actually manipulates the controls of the car. Perhaps they are saying this system is now smoother and more capable of tracking the NN's desired outputs... Just a thought.
It could be AI8/HW8 required by the time unattended FSD actually ships in 2045 ;). Ai4/HW4 people will be left in the cold soon enough. I wouldnt rush for the upgrade.
18:05 - FSD may not need ears for emergency vehicles (they may be useful for something else). If you’re - 1- looking straight ahead, when you hear the siren, and 2- don’t move your head before you see the lights then - you did not need your ears on this occasion. FSD is ALWAYS looking straight ahead in 8 different directions/focal lengths … at the same time. An audible warning may not even save her a millionth of a second to make a decision.
Does anyone know if the on-screen messages (accompanied by a chime) can also be audio? I had a situation this week where the car lurched (brake), chimed and had an on-screen message while on a sharp off-ramp curve. Rather than trying to read the message, I just disengaged FSD. By the time I could read the screen, the message was long gone.
I sometimes get dinged for not looking at the road while trying to read the small low contrast text Tesla uses. I did change it to large text, but that's still not much of an improvement. It is not used in many occasions.
Everyone keeps talking about the Model 2 Tesla Cab like it is required for anything. They just need anyone who owns a Tesla to be able to download the app, pay the fee, and turn it on to make money autonomously! 6 million cabs have already been built! Just need them working! Even at just $0.25/mile a person could collect several thousand dollars profit a year for allowing their car to Cab while they are at work or sleeping!
@@webspiderc Cybrlft has a YT and X channel where he compiles statistics as an uber driver using FSD. Others contribute to collecting stats as well. He has extensive charts and graphs detailing how many interventions and what kind of interventions they are (safety, comfort, legal, etc) for each version so we can see the progress.
I was given a second 30 day free trial of FSD. In a very short trip it had 3 serious interventions, including trying to run a red light. I think it'll be years before it's acceptable. Very disappointing.
No, it’s not that Tesla is way ahead, it’s that Tesla is way behind technologically both in terms of AI and tools with OpenAI Figure 2 let alone Figure 1 (a humanoid robot with the brain of GPT) is way more advanced than Teslas newest model, and a Waymo (a full self driving car) has been driving flawlessly for a couple of years.
Looks dim for people with HW3, so when is AI5 coming? I wish it wouldn't change lanes without confirmation . The part where it trys to get into the passing lane 1 mile before the highway turn off is still troubling. One of my complaints is the blind spot coverage still requires you use mirror in the Y . Narrow field of view out the back through the hatch window and the blind spot on the screen is at 45 degrees so until things come into that range you need to use the side windows.
For the world’s most popular car, I was hoping for hardware improvements. More power for the MYp model. More towing capacity. Power Frunk, presenting handles and soft close doors. More Range ! Larger Battery ! For software, the needs software that allows cruise control to be used with RainX. It is Dump that Tesla isn’t aware of safety products like RainX. For FSD: Tesla cars should be mandated to illuminate “student diver” or “Caution - Slow Vehicle”, on the side and rear windows when FSD is in use.
So, I agree more context length will be necessary but I disagree about the amount of time they currently use. From what I’ve seen it’s closer to 4 or 5 seconds. It needs about 5-10 minutes.
I find it upsetting that after spending $110k on a 2022 Model S with FSD with the promise that it would completely drive itself, we are told that it will take HW4 to achieve. The expectation was that the car would increase in value but instead Tesla has continually reduced the price on the car. So disappointing.
Camera occlusions... my car is afraid of the dark... I guess highways are darker in Canada? If I´m on the highway and there are no cars behind me so it's very dark... the Tesla thinks the B-pillar cameras are occluded, and says "degraded" ... it then is a cruise control... won't navigate or pass... Eventually I end up behind a slow moving vehicle... I have to turn FSD off, pass the vehicle manually... once there is a lit vehicle in the rearview mirrors I the steering wheel indicating FSD is available comes back, and I can turn it on... until it gets dark again... and we loop.
Here's a question for all you 'FSD' Tesla drivers. How far would you drive in one blindfolded with your whole family not wearing seatbelts, and with the airbags turned off?
If they would simply bite the bullet and upgrade all the hardware threes to hardware fours they could make up for the losses by just jacking up the price of FSD for those users and then they could get out from under this whole problem of running two different stacks
I just saw a video about fsd driving through a small deer on the road and not slowing down at all or stopping afterwards. 4x better seems like it needs to be way better. Idk, what if that’s a kid? I want FSD to work but this makes me worried. Not seeing something is a bad excuse for humans not FSD. Maybe new cameras resolution with hw4 will help? idk where Dr know it all drives but 30 sec to a minute of anticipatory planning for lane changes etc. is way to short - Dr you’re wrong on that - that just fixes the easy part.
My other concern is they are not putting out hard data. If they were this close to actually having superior to human driving, I would expect to see actual data dumps that external groups can peer review. All we get with these updates are vague goals and hyperbolic accomplishments.
When HW4 came out, Elon stated clearly that HW3 could not be retrofitted because the cameras and cables were not compatible, the cooling requirements/connections were not compatible, etc. Therefore, it would require a specific redesigned/repackaged version of HW4 to replace HW3 cars. This would be a very expensive retrofit. My guess is Elon is hoping the majority of FSD HW3 cars will have been sold to new owners before any Class Action is taken. I expect Tesla will offer some form of $$ compensation or car trade-in credit instead of designing a retrofit.
Finally Tesla could create a HW3.5 by modifying the existing AI3 board with just around the new AI4 or AI5 chip. They might find a way keeping the cooling, connections, kabeling & cameras the same. Then rangers could make the swap ... just saying
As FSD is so advanced do you think that it will soon be used to drive the Tesla taxis in Las Vegas and save huga amounts of payroll? The tunnels being the world's simplest driving environment.
"Might not be fully capable" How about rear 100% probability. that it will not be capable. What does a 10% take rate equate to in terms of actual numbers of cars with FSD & hardware 3? I'd love to see the pricetag associated with this "free" upgrade. Any guesses? 10s of millions 100s of millions of dollars? I'm so glad I insisted on purchasing a Tesla with HW4 even though I can't see using FSD in its current state.
![KSI - Dirty [Official Visualiser]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/VoDh1h1dPUE/mqdefault.jpg)
John, Your enthusiasm for FSD topic shines through! Great Job!
Holy Smoke! What a fantastic video. You are really doing great work!
For camera cleaning they may just mean the windshield wipers.
YES! I am with you that audio inputs can be helpful or even critical, and this is the first I've heard that Tesla understood that. YEAH BABY!
Thank you for your elaboration of many of these elements. So helpful.:)
Absolutely fantastic report for we mortals, John! Thank you!
I was using FSD this morning with no traffic out and it came to a complete stop at a green light!
And you have proof of that because you obviously saved the video, right?
FSD isn’t perfect however if it stopped at green lights, that would be all over the internet. Stop with the false accusations
@@UTUBESUCK666why would he save a video of that?
Was that a “green hydrogen” light?
Hopefully mapping/GPS, navigation will be improved 🤞
Most of my non-safety critical interventions are all caused by bad map data. The vision system can see it can make a left turn at the stoplight but the map data says it must turn right and then I make a u-turn. Luckily, the new software sometimes ignores the bad map data, which is hopeful. However, they should still fix the bad map data. Or just not use it.
Tracking: I think they mean the car itself tracks better, as in FSD set a path and they have redesigned the controllers for the steering so it can track the computed path more smoothly.
Choosing to not show "degraded performance due to weather" less often does not mean they improved anything with regard to actual performance in poor weather
great video always appreciate how you explain what the Tesla team are saying
I had not seen that X post, so thank you, John! A couple of comments. First, 3x context scaling is very important. Memory is good. But prediction is better and model size for planning what is best to do next, based on the recent past recall (and maybe next video-frames predictions/anticipations), is very important as well. Second, we all know that space craft (like Voyager or New Horizons or Cassini) seem to get smarter as time goes by (because the programmers send them updates). Using a bigger AI model to improve a smaller model is similar, but a lot faster! And third, audio inputs (and outputs too) seem absolutely essential. Surely that will be directional and dopplering as well as basic sound type discrimination. And, of course, with LLM interfaces, allow you to talk to your car from outside or inside. What a great list Ashok Elluswamy must have already!! 😊
Great content! When I read the point about Integrated unpark, reverse and park, I immediately think of AT HOME USE where you pull up to driveway garage door and get out to use front entrance. If this is your routine or you have a large group of occupancy and there’s another car in the garage and you’re afraid of any damage…you could exit the vehicle and engage this. The car will enter and park itself. The same in the opposite direction. This couple with the Garay door opener it’s what I think it means. EDIT: right after I submitted my comment You gave te same explanation.
Thank you doc for this very detailed and clear explanation. You rock!
I use to be happy seeing these videos of FSD improvement. Now when I see them I feel sad that I have HW3 and worry I will far too far behind with each update HW4 gets.
2021 MYLR HW3 as well. At this point, Tesla needs a recall to upgrade our HW3 and possibly cameras. They are each on completely different playing fields. HW3 is Varsity ball while HW4 is Major League. Once you drive in all HW4 car, it becomes clear as day to see. Keep in mind that these are still in emulation mode.
I thought every car built from 2018 on has robotaxi capable hardware?
You're vehicle will depreciate more with time. Don't wait, trade in now.
The plan is for HW3 to be fully FSD capable. At earnings, Elon said that if HW3 ultimately can’t handle it, Tesla will upgrade the processor to AI4 for anyone who bought FSD with their car.
@brianp8384 they should do it sooner rather than later. Especially since those owners paid $10k, $12k, and $15k for the same software everyone gets for $8k now.
Thanks for the run-down!
There is a story that was spread everywhere by the media of a tesla hitting a deer and not even slowing down afterward. It was a smaller deer and it was a small footprint. The driver didn't see it either.
@@franklin519 That's actually the ideal thing to do, especially after the deer has already been hit, but possibly even when the deer waders in front. Slamming on your brakes gets you rear ended. Swerving means you might hit another car or the centre divider, or roll the car. There was a woman who stopped for ducks or geese on the highway. The motorcycle carrying two passengers rear ended her and at least one of them died. She charged, fined and put in jail for doing that. Ideally, FSD would know better than a person the exact performance of the car, and whether or not it's safe to swerve into another lane of slam on the brakes if no one is behind you. For now, though, that was probably the best call.
I was in the Costco parking lot a few days ago and there were zero empty parking spots. Additionally, if you did want to park you’d either have to be watching for someone loading groceries or be following a person pushing a shopping cart. I wonder how FSD would deal with the situation
Hopefully just drive around the lot until it gets a park or you return.
@ hope so.
Good insights John. Thanks.
I get pretty frustrated with my Tesla at times but I have to admit, this video gives me some hope that it might be worth hanging around for a while with Tesla and the gang
Glad they finally acknowledge that the bad weather chimes are annoying, wonder how long it takes them to realize that for the b-pillar side cameras occluded messages at night. Constantly on and off at night.
This was one of the best videos I’ve watched in a while! Thank you for helping me understand all of this much better. I’m not an engineer, so I can get lost in the sauce on some of this. You did a fantastic job of distilling this down. You may want to try teaching one day John 😂😂😂
Elon, please extend free FSD through the end of this year!
Why?
Thanks for the updates. How exciting!! I'm so glad I sprung for a brand new Model Y with AI4 instead of a used one with HW3.
I have hw3 too, but my stock makes me feel a bit better about my situation. As long as fsd is achieved, it is worth it.
Not necessarily rare occasion. I live in Alabama, oncoming pickup trucks often come over into my lane a little. It is to be expected and one shouldn't slam on the brakes ever time it happens.
There are still a lot of things FSD isn't doing. Many are distracted by it getting better at the things it's been doing for years, but I want to see new capabilities that should have been solved years ago - potholes, reading all road signs, three-point turns, reverse, etc. Until it can do everything it needs to do, even if it's just starting to do it badly, we can't even really tell how long it will be until it's feature completely.
What system are you comparing it too? As far as I can tell, if you compare it to any other system Tesla is very far ahead.
@davidbeppler3032 I'm comparing it to what it needs to be able to do to be feature complete. Nothing to do with what any other company is doing so I don't even know why you're bringing that up. If the next company to solve autonomy is 10000 years out, it doesn't change the fact that robotaxi can't happen if it can do a three-point turn or read road signs etc. right?
@@truhartwood3170 Agreed. But my point is how far and fast it has come when GM promised autonomous system in all new cars by 2020.
@@davidbeppler3032 And Elon promised a better system than now being claimed to be delivered in 2018
@@truhartwood3170 at the end of the day, the persistant problems are symptoms of a bigger issue. Personally; I think we can see this particular AI “s-curve” hitting it’s plateau. It may be we need more compute but I think it’s a fundamental flaw in how we are addressing the issue.
18:37 audio is most importan t in urban scenarios where you have many blind intersections. Sometimes, sound is you best friend.
What? 🦻
Tesla first released the Summon feature in 2016. Initiating it remotely, it would open the garage door, park the car (and in tight spots), and then close the garage door. Exiting the garage did those steps in reverse - helpful if you didn’t have room to squeeze into your car. (And people posted vids back then of their cars doing this via Apple Watch voice commands.). I didn’t realize garage summoning was no longer supported - I guess it’s not?
I’m not sure if there really is a microphone on the outside of the car but speaker can also be used as a microphone… Low Fidelity but it works
I was thinking the same thing. But the electronics attached to the 2 analog signal wires on the speaker would have to be able to switch to listen mode and to perform an analog to digital conversion of the signal it hears. Do you think Tesla has that capability in the interface to its NHTSA mandated underbody speaker?
@ assuming so
This is the best discussion I've seen so far outlining why HW3 has reached end of life in terms of its capabilities. Although I think you still down played the significance.
For far too long this Tesla fan community has bought into the narrative that nearly all Teslas will become L4 robotaxis with "just a software update". That narrative has finally and definitively been proven false. HW3 cars are not L4 capable and never were going to be.
Tesla included hardware in their cars in order to COLLECT DATA to DEVELOP FSD. That was the primary investment. Everyone should remain skeptical that HW3 cars will get hardware upgrades. The primary goal is to get the Cybercab feature complete, into production, and on the roads by the millions. The existing fleet is secondary. Upgrading the existing fleet's hardware is an open question and people should not assume it is worth the significant investment that Tesla would have to make in order to do so.
People should also not assume that HW4 will become full fledged robotaxis. What is the proof of my skepticism? The Cybercab. It has a front bumper camera (no blind spot), integrated automatic doors (without it a passenger can brick the car by simply leaving the door open), & also AI5 (which will be 48v, I guarantee it).
People greatly underestimate the significant difference between ADAS and L4. I think HW4 cars will achieve very high percentages of intervention free drives and hopefully L3 (likely L3 highway). That doesn't mean they can or should be allowed to operate without a driver in the car. That is a step change which has many requirements. It isn't just about what the car can do but also what it can't do (front bumper blind spot, ability to clean the cameras, ability to understand spoken passenger instructions, ability to close the doors if left open, etc, etc).
The Cybercab will have all the hardware and software needed to function as a driverless taxi in as many scenarios as possible. The existing fleet does not without significant enhancements. So I would very much like to see more discussions about what is necessary to send your Tesla out into the world without a driver, from a hardware as well as software perspective. Understandably the focus has been on the software but the hardware on the existing fleet is still lacking. What mods do they need? Are they or will they become available? What are the risks if those hardware mods aren't done?
Also what does "feature complete" mean for ADAS vs L3 vs L4 when considering both software and hardware? Can a car with a blind spot be L4 or even city street L3? Can a car with no software integrated automatic doors or camera cleaning hardware be a driverless taxi?
This isn't about FUD. It is about objective analysis.
Musk has said he will update AI3 equipped vehicles to AI4.
I am glad that I traded my 2021 MY for 2024 MY.
Thank you very much for your enlightening videos.
In 2 years when my first lease is up. And 3 years after that when the other leases end. Then i hope we get the Cybertruck here in Europe.
But why not for a Ford Mustang!
@@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl Slow and cumbersome, not efficient, too expensive, too heavy, bad software, many recalls, no OTA.
Even a VW ID.4 is much better in every aspect than a Ford Mustang Mach-E.
@@wolfgangpreier9160Its better in every way and real fun,cant wait to buy a cheap used Mustang Mach1!Just an extrem hot and perfect car!A Hyundai Inster Ev would be great as a second Car,and a Wulling Air Ev for Here in Bali!
@@wolfgangpreier9160What a tragedy!Soo many BEVs here from MG,Wulling,and BYD and i still havent seen a Tesla in a week!So soooo sad!
Best Tesla AI explanations found here!
Yet again nothing about FSD for Australia, sigh....
Or Europe. Sigh Sigh.
They might just be waiting for government approval, while we are beta testing everything for you. That and getting it to drive on the wrong side of the road. ;-)
RHD not a high priority unfortunately. Here in the UK we still have the original motorway code with wonderful features like "cameras obscured" on the motorway at night, so no lane changes when indicating; "keep right" announcements when passing junctions; suddenly jerking the wheel to the left when it decides it wants to take the junction when it shouldn't; no enhanced auto-park / ASS. Yes I have FSD on my 2019 M3P which definitely wasn't worth getting ;)
I wonder if the improved "traffic controls" includes awareness of speed limit changes in school zones.
I just want the ability to be able to always adjust the speed manually! Why can't you do that? Design flaw. My car on FSD does 58 in a 40 all the time. So I disengage and tell it "speeding again." 18 over the limit is not good. I do not want a ticket!
@@davidbeppler3032 Tesla made it clear recently that FSD means that the AI has ultimate control and that all human inputs are requests only as human input is subject to error. You can use the scroll wheel to select a higher maximum speed up to 40% above the speed limit, but this is only highest speed that the AI can use. It can and will use a lower speed most of the time. If you want to be able to control the actual speed yourself, then you must disengage FSD
@@timepstein274 boo hoo. I want to be able to override speed control
Insightful. TY. Will forward on and encourage others to subscribe.
Regarding Audio inputs: The Mic could be the cabin mic, the same one that the driver / operator uses to talk to the GUI or to indicate to FSD as to where to go.
Thanks for the detailed review of the changelog. since a controller is something that takes a reference and the actual value, it looks like the network is outputting the reference (=desired) and a controller is comparing that to what the car is actually doing, and steers accordingly. it does not make sense to implement/train this behavior in the network because it is well understood mathematically and will depend on the vehicle dynamics (weight etc), which you don't want to train for, it's a very small abstraction layer between network and car controls.
15:18 Yes, I've often thought some of FSD's behaviors were like a kid with PTSD... and what you are describing: overtraining on crisis scenarios could account for some of that.
Despite what Tik Tokers say, therapy effectively ameliorates Post-traumatic Experience (new name) 😊
"necessary interventions" is pretty subjective.
as opposed to “ugly subjective?”
11:45 a lot of supposition there, but you may have a good point. Working from a "solved" big model to smaller workable smaller model might be possible. Not sure it will be as good.
1:35 My car had HW4 when I bought her, and now she has AI4 when discussing FSD updates moving forward. No need to apologize for being tripped up by the branding. :)
Great Report!
25:10 I'm pumped, 13 has always been my lucky number.
Gotta face it. Most people don’t care about FSD at this point. Most average Tesla owners don’t know the capabilities of their cars. FSD on HW3 in 1 year or 3 makes no difference to them. To most people this is a clever party trick right now.
Really great breakdown. I’m still optimistic about Ai3 long term on my 2019 model 3, but will be disappointed to be left behind in the immediate/near future term with updates and performance increases.
Excellent explanations
Three questions. 1) If the care has an accident while using FSD or FUD (full unsupervised driving), who is at fault? 2) Will we reach a point when there are ZERO "critical interventions," because if not I would not want to just drive around guessing when the car might suddenly do something crazy. 3) is there a back-up driving option that could help overcome that last issue of the "critical interventions." Would a separate autonomous system overlay - possibly a robot with an autonomous AI system be enough to fully replace drivers - safely? If so, that is a great use case for the robots.
Thanks for reading it to us!
Drove 58 miles home last night city/ highway and used FSD in my 23 model S. Absolutely no interventions for 57 miles until I got 1 mile from our house. On a main road with no vehicles in front or behind me, the car phantom braked for no reason. I couldn’t believe it. Made no sense at all. I was ready to tout FSD with so much praise and then stupid incidents like this happen. WTF?
Keeping you humble. Elon wants the stock to stay low.
I just wrote that I was using FSD this morning. 5 AM. No traffic. It came to a complete stop at a green light. I turned it off.!
@@RayNLA LOL that is a new one for me! Never had it stop at a green light!
Yeah. It happens to me once every week or two.
What is the version of FSD do you have? version 12.5. 4.1 that I have Phantom brakes a couple times a drive.
I think that:
X3 Context length= past time, not future
X4.2 data scaling = amount of data in the training set
I agree context is in the past, but the past can help you drive better in the future. A car has been weaving in the lane in front of you. Maybe you want to back up a little bit as an example .But not in the way he was saying. FSD does really pour at that midterm choosing the right lane planning, which I don't think will be helped with the context window.
Tracking can be following a track, outputing to follow enviroment.
In other words anybody with hardware three or earlier won't be getting them any more updates.
Read your release notes.
That’s not what he said. HW 3 owners will have to wait before they get an update that has similar, but probably not as robust, features that the software in the AI4 cars have had for awhile. But their is a possibility that at some point Tesla will throw in the towel and admit that HW3 cars will never have FSD that is unsupervised and can be used in a Tesla robotaxi fleet like we were led to believe.
One thing they don't talk about, and which does not require better hardware, is the ability to explicitly specify a desired route to a destination, without requiring a stop at the intermediate points. This is not important or even desirable for Robotaxis, which is probably why they don't include it.
Tracking. I think they are talking about the jittering of vehicles, stuff in the world. As we see something, like a car, jumping around on screen. Smoothing out the world jitters should greatly improve planning, predicting what moving objects will do.
Sweet! I’ve been a fan of FSD and I’ll admit I’m lucky that where I’ve used it hasn’t been too difficult. I have had phantom breaking but I always have hands on the wheel and foot hovering over the accelerator and I catch it asap. There’s only really one spot where FSD reads the wrong speed limit so I’m used to picking up the speed when I drops from 65 to 35 then back I’ll to 65.
"Smoother more accurate tracking" is perhaps about the controller which actually manipulates the controls of the car. Perhaps they are saying this system is now smoother and more capable of tracking the NN's desired outputs... Just a thought.
Thank you. Very helpful.
I guess the 'controller' is the component that actually does the steering, so 'tracking' is executing a planned path.
Damn, me being in the EU wondering when i can use the ACC without the car phantom breaking all the time.
AI3/HW3 being left in the cold. Buggy streets and nothing new on highway. "Free" upgrade in two weeks?
Um... not left behind. You have had updates since 2019. Free every time. Your car got better while anyone else who bought a 2019 ICE car did not.
It could be AI8/HW8 required by the time unattended FSD actually ships in 2045 ;). Ai4/HW4 people will be left in the cold soon enough. I wouldnt rush for the upgrade.
18:05 - FSD may not need ears for emergency vehicles (they may be useful for something else).
If you’re -
1- looking straight ahead, when you hear the siren, and
2- don’t move your head before you see the lights
then -
you did not need your ears on this occasion.
FSD is ALWAYS looking straight ahead in 8 different directions/focal lengths … at the same time. An audible warning may not even save her a millionth of a second to make a decision.
Does anyone know if the on-screen messages (accompanied by a chime) can also be audio? I had a situation this week where the car lurched (brake), chimed and had an on-screen message while on a sharp off-ramp curve. Rather than trying to read the message, I just disengaged FSD. By the time I could read the screen, the message was long gone.
I find the small print hard to read.
@@joelcannon58 I have mine sett for large print, but it's not very big. And the message can go away fast.
I sometimes get dinged for not looking at the road while trying to read the small low contrast text Tesla uses. I did change it to large text, but that's still not much of an improvement. It is not used in many occasions.
Good info, thank you!
I'm pretty sure "data scaling" means training data size scaling
Everyone keeps talking about the Model 2 Tesla Cab like it is required for anything. They just need anyone who owns a Tesla to be able to download the app, pay the fee, and turn it on to make money autonomously! 6 million cabs have already been built! Just need them working! Even at just $0.25/mile a person could collect several thousand dollars profit a year for allowing their car to Cab while they are at work or sleeping!
I guess my HW3 model 3 with auto garage parking by double pressing the park button is the only benefit anymore.
Is there any information about mail or km per intervention on each version ?
@@webspiderc Cybrlft has a YT and X channel where he compiles statistics as an uber driver using FSD. Others contribute to collecting stats as well. He has extensive charts and graphs detailing how many interventions and what kind of interventions they are (safety, comfort, legal, etc) for each version so we can see the progress.
Would the 3x context be required for the higher definition video, rather than longer memory?
Interesting that you said back in to your garage. If only FSD could drive in nose forward. I wonder why it can't.
I was given a second 30 day free trial of FSD. In a very short trip it had 3 serious interventions, including trying to run a red light. I think it'll be years before it's acceptable. Very disappointing.
No, it’s not that Tesla is way ahead, it’s that Tesla is way behind technologically both in terms of AI and tools with OpenAI Figure 2 let alone Figure 1 (a humanoid robot with the brain of GPT) is way more advanced than Teslas newest model, and a Waymo (a full self driving car) has been driving flawlessly for a couple of years.
Looks dim for people with HW3, so when is AI5 coming? I wish it wouldn't change lanes without confirmation . The part where it trys to get into the passing lane 1 mile before the highway turn off is still troubling. One of my complaints is the blind spot coverage still requires you use mirror in the Y . Narrow field of view out the back through the hatch window and the blind spot on the screen is at 45 degrees so until things come into that range you need to use the side windows.
How does it look dim? You have a better system than anyone who does not own a Tesla today. You are 10 years ahead of everyone else. That is amaizing.
Interesting, but alas way too expensive!!
For the world’s most popular car, I was hoping for hardware improvements. More power for the MYp model. More towing capacity. Power Frunk, presenting handles and soft close doors. More Range ! Larger Battery !
For software, the needs software that allows cruise control to be used with RainX. It is Dump that Tesla isn’t aware of safety products like RainX.
For FSD: Tesla cars should be mandated to illuminate “student diver” or “Caution - Slow Vehicle”, on the side and rear windows when FSD is in use.
So, I agree more context length will be necessary but I disagree about the amount of time they currently use. From what I’ve seen it’s closer to 4 or 5 seconds. It needs about 5-10 minutes.
4.2x data scaling refers to training data.
I find it upsetting that after spending $110k on a 2022 Model S with FSD with the promise that it would completely drive itself, we are told that it will take HW4 to achieve. The expectation was that the car would increase in value but instead Tesla has continually reduced the price on the car. So disappointing.
Don't be.
Your 34 years ahead of me and another ten yrs ahead of anyone else in the World. Relax.
22:20 yeah. how can Camera Cleaning be imrproved with software... maybe you are right it is just the cybertruck.
Perfect FSD self driving seems to be less than 12 months away.
Not perfect. But close enough. Hell today it is better than most drivers. Just needs help once in awhile. Yellow flashing lights still confuse it. :)
Has there been any mention of frames-per-second? I would think that would be pretty important, the more frames, the better predictions.
Some people have referred to me as the stupider model😅
Funny. A fly does all this with a speck of a brain.
10:56 Please don't try to reason from LLM to FSD. Different sort of NNs.. No , Attention isn't all you need with FSD.
Thanks!
Can you tell us what is going to happen with fsd in France
Camera occlusions... my car is afraid of the dark... I guess highways are darker in Canada? If I´m on the highway
and there are no cars behind me so it's very dark... the Tesla thinks the B-pillar cameras are occluded, and says "degraded" ... it then is a cruise control... won't navigate or pass... Eventually I end up behind a slow moving vehicle... I have to turn FSD off, pass the vehicle manually... once there is a lit vehicle in the rearview mirrors I the steering wheel indicating FSD is available comes back, and I can turn it on... until it gets dark again... and we loop.
16:52 IPDE
I think 4.2x data scaling means training data.
Tesla need to start preparing for HW3 to HW4 upgrades, even cameras, closing this chapter and moving forward
Great job Dr. KIA! Thanks! Has Tesla had the foresight to design HW4 so that it will be upgradeable to HW5 when it is released?
The day tesla takes on full responsibility of FSD, is the day I trust it fully...until then nah.
The only fsd BoMbShELL will be the day Tesluh declares fsd unsupervised and insures it.
Thank you, very good lecture
Hmmm sitting here with my AI3 hardware and wondering when AI5 and AI6 HW comes out will AI3 ever get what it was promised?
Here's a question for all you 'FSD' Tesla drivers. How far would you drive in one blindfolded with your whole family not wearing seatbelts, and with the airbags turned off?
If they would simply bite the bullet and upgrade all the hardware threes to hardware fours they could make up for the losses by just jacking up the price of FSD for those users and then they could get out from under this whole problem of running two different stacks
there will be more hw upgrades as everything progresses. Just like cell phones.
I just saw a video about fsd driving through a small deer on the road and not slowing down at all or stopping afterwards. 4x better seems like it needs to be way better. Idk, what if that’s a kid? I want FSD to work but this makes me worried. Not seeing something is a bad excuse for humans not FSD. Maybe new cameras resolution with hw4 will help? idk where Dr know it all drives but 30 sec to a minute of anticipatory planning for lane changes etc. is way to short - Dr you’re wrong on that - that just fixes the easy part.
I saw that too...but you will never see him talking about it on this channel.
Therapy remediates excessive worry: my revivifier is a subtle psychologist 💙
My other concern is they are not putting out hard data. If they were this close to actually having superior to human driving, I would expect to see actual data dumps that external groups can peer review. All we get with these updates are vague goals and hyperbolic accomplishments.
it might be very situational. so they are generalizing.
@ They are adults, they can specify the situation the data relates to.
When HW4 came out, Elon stated clearly that HW3 could not be retrofitted because the cameras and cables were not compatible, the cooling requirements/connections were not compatible, etc. Therefore, it would require a specific redesigned/repackaged version of HW4 to replace HW3 cars. This would be a very expensive retrofit. My guess is Elon is hoping the majority of FSD HW3 cars will have been sold to new owners before any Class Action is taken. I expect Tesla will offer some form of $$ compensation or car trade-in credit instead of designing a retrofit.
🤗RELAX … after they get Hardware 4 complete. The team will be working on backward compatibility with software.
Finally Tesla could create a HW3.5 by modifying the existing AI3 board with just around the new AI4 or AI5 chip. They might find a way keeping the cooling, connections, kabeling & cameras the same. Then rangers could make the swap ... just saying
Humans who love”Class Action” have no class - so glad I ain’t hooman😅
As FSD is so advanced do you think that it will soon be used to drive the Tesla taxis in Las Vegas and save huga amounts of payroll?
The tunnels being the world's simplest driving environment.
"Might not be fully capable" How about rear 100% probability. that it will not be capable. What does a 10% take rate equate to in terms of actual numbers of cars with FSD & hardware 3? I'd love to see the pricetag associated with this "free" upgrade. Any guesses? 10s of millions 100s of millions of dollars? I'm so glad I insisted on purchasing a Tesla with HW4 even though I can't see using FSD in its current state.