Ben- You are one of the most analytical and rational people I have ever seen. But I do not know why you continue to insist that ETH is going down. It seems like you are holding on for dear life to this idea. At this point, it seems to be emotional, not rational. All recent data suggest that ETH will not bleed against BTC.
It's true but if the SEC comes after ETH as well a decent drop could be in. If I remember well, Xrp dropped roughly 60% in the beginning of the law suite, Dec 20. Or delisitng in the US because the SEC thinks its a security. Check out the price of the mentioned Altcoin this week. Matic, Cardano etc. Some more dubious speculation on top.
Basically, learning from what you says, the time to buy alts is when BTC and TOTAL3 hold their 20W moving averages as support. Your videos are the best in YT space.
Hey Ben, I'm a big fan and have been watching you for years at this point. I appreciate what you do, and respect your work. That said, you've been coming across as biased, in my opinion. I'm perfectly fine with the idea of another ETH drop to new lows, but you seem to consistently be trying to justify your bearish stance. For example, when you're referencing the market dump from the pandemic, which was a black swan event that, by definition, could not be predicted and you're comparing it to things like a potential (even probable) upcoming recession (which many market participants are expecting as a notable probability), then you're comparing a black swan event with an event that many people are talking about and expecting, i.e. it must be priced in to some extent. I just wanted to try to explain, as a long time follower that loves your work, how you're coming across to me as biased in your overall crypto bearishness. I promise, I'm not in denial about my own long term bullish bias (which I know we share). Am I being unfair in accusing you of a bias?
So far ETH has been deflationary since migration, I think this model is due for some update, for example, if we divide the ETH price by the inflation/deflation rate before fitting it to the curve again
Ben have you considered the fact that these could become invalidated since ethereum is now deflationary. If there are any buyers at these levels since last september surely we have a much stronger bull case.
Ben, can you please raise your audio level for like 10-20% more? Your videos are quieter than all other videos - it is not a big deal, but if would be more comfortable to not have to adjust volume with every video :-) Thank you.
You're not looking at it from a fundamental standpoint. The supply of ether was reduced by 1/10 compared to the pow system. In addition, the constant selling pressure from miners has disappeared. And if you have coins, you get 5% interest. Of course you have to think about this too, right?
My only problem with this assessment is since late 2019; Etherium has gone through upgrades. Are these upgrades taken into account with the amount of Etherium held, how much is invested into it, and how much Etherium is left or the amount of Etherium shared per person.
I see the logic from a technical perspective, but ETH is not the same ETH that most of the chart has recorded. And most of the bleed that has happened lately due to Gary. I hope you're right, though. I haven't replenished any bags since the last bull run except for BTC
How can you say the ETH/BTC isn’t holding up when it’s been going sideways within the upper red box you have on your chart? It dipped out of the box to the downside but quickly got back within the box.
Thank you for the video. Pretty well-founded ideas. I disagree mainly because ETH is now fundamentally different, so I expect ETH/BTC to breakout into higher highs in the coming years.
ETH was like a growth stock in the previous cycle, a risky speculative digital money. Now it's actually being used on DeFi, smart contracts etc. So I think it's becoming a dividend stock. There's real demand and value, not just speculation
@@cryptonative exactly. I do agree with Ben that price action is cyclical to some extent due to market psychology and risk appetite. There's also the having narrative to pump BTC against ETH next. However I can't confidently ignore that ETH's risk profile fundamentally changed. I'd say smth like ADA is now what ETH was. A cool valuable project, but we can't be sure that it's gonna make it. So it may dump now and pump harder later
bro, if eth goes all the way down to a new low, best believe i'm going almost all in with all my cash sittin around from the last cycle.. lets hope my patience will be fruitful :)
Bob Loukas wrote that eth/btc is bullish. And if we see lower highs is it only what we want to see. That is why I am confused now because I think Ben is right about this. Makes perfect sense. But Bob Loukas is also demigod in trading so..damn
It's nice to have conviction Ben (talking about 5s) 😄 PS: ETH looks really strong, hard to imagine the catastrophic scenario you are describing, ETH has matured from previous cycle I believe
Why should eth have the valuation it does right now at over $220B? what does it mean for eth to be "looking strong"? I haven't seen any breakthrough applications that have achieved product market fit and are reaching mass adoption launch any time recently (or arguably at all). I'm an Eth bull thats been working in the sector for 5+ years, so im not a hater - i just don't seem to nearly have the confidence you do in understanding what a fair current valuation is. Would love to understand how you approach valuing it?
TOTAL2 (crypto excl. BTC) had a ¬280% increase in early 2019, and only around 60% in early 2023. How would we compute these diminished returns on the upside into a forecast for downside in the second part of 2023 for ETH/altcoins?
Into The Cryptoverse Premium SALE:
intothecryptoverse.com
How does the BTC halving directly affect ETH?
Finally ETH Regression Bands Video.
It's been a while.
We need the same video for BTC, Ben!!!
Always a good day when Ben explains how to properly draw a 5.
This. Efficiency is key.
This is the way
Why didn't Ben write his 2 from the bottom 🤔
Ben out here having the time of his life, drawing 5's 😂
I'm also bleeding against CASH.
Ben- You are one of the most analytical and rational people I have ever seen.
But I do not know why you continue to insist that ETH is going down. It seems like you are holding on for dear life to this idea.
At this point, it seems to be emotional, not rational. All recent data suggest that ETH will not bleed against BTC.
At what point will you refit the curve to include recent non-bubble data of the past 1.5 years? Why not now?
This is particularly important since ETH is now ultra sound and has a substantially different market structure
The 75% drop is largely attributable to the black swan Covid event so I would take that drop in early 2020 with a pinch of salt
It's true but if the SEC comes after ETH as well a decent drop could be in. If I remember well, Xrp dropped roughly 60% in the beginning of the law suite, Dec 20. Or delisitng in the US because the SEC thinks its a security. Check out the price of the mentioned Altcoin this week. Matic, Cardano etc. Some more dubious speculation on top.
yeah and so is the ongoing recession, plus the sec crypto crackdown...
How do I get this logarithmic indicator? Can't find it 😕
Basically, learning from what you says, the time to buy alts is when BTC and TOTAL3 hold their 20W moving averages as support. Your videos are the best in YT space.
I think you need to redraw that regression band. The fundamentals of Eth have changed.
Ah I love the dubious speculations, they are so affirming, I feel like you're the only OG in the youtube space tbh
Its not going back in the band because of the Merge/Triple Halving that happened in September 22. Since then its way more scarce and deflationary.
This will age like milk
First. I will not be a statistic on the social risk.
Hey Ben, I'm a big fan and have been watching you for years at this point. I appreciate what you do, and respect your work. That said, you've been coming across as biased, in my opinion. I'm perfectly fine with the idea of another ETH drop to new lows, but you seem to consistently be trying to justify your bearish stance. For example, when you're referencing the market dump from the pandemic, which was a black swan event that, by definition, could not be predicted and you're comparing it to things like a potential (even probable) upcoming recession (which many market participants are expecting as a notable probability), then you're comparing a black swan event with an event that many people are talking about and expecting, i.e. it must be priced in to some extent. I just wanted to try to explain, as a long time follower that loves your work, how you're coming across to me as biased in your overall crypto bearishness. I promise, I'm not in denial about my own long term bullish bias (which I know we share). Am I being unfair in accusing you of a bias?
Can you make a video where you just write 5's?
So far ETH has been deflationary since migration, I think this model is due for some update, for example, if we divide the ETH price by the inflation/deflation rate before fitting it to the curve again
Ben have you considered the fact that these could become invalidated since ethereum is now deflationary. If there are any buyers at these levels since last september surely we have a much stronger bull case.
So the 5 means we can expect 5x this cycle?
I keep waiting for my favorite Ben quote "If I'm wrong, I'll wipe my tears with all the money in going to make"
Your regression line has not calculated the huge inflation we had last years, and therefore the fair value is actually higher then your band
Ben, can you please raise your audio level for like 10-20% more? Your videos are quieter than all other videos - it is not a big deal, but if would be more comfortable to not have to adjust volume with every video :-) Thank you.
You can't convince me to sell tho
lucid thinking and beautiful skills to explain.
I think Ben thinks ETH is going to bleed against BTC
Realistically, it's been printing lower high for years now. 😊
After 30+ years of optimally writing 5's, Benjamin Cowen was able to learn two lifetimes worth of financial knowledge with the time saved.
I tried time and time again... and I just cannot write a 5 with Ben's technique
Great video Ben, just one question.
If you write and 8 or 0 followed by a 5 how do you draw it?
I totally agree with you on how to write a five. But it was drilled into my head since first grade to write it by starting at the top. I'm programmed.
Even teaching us the most efficient way to write a 5. Legendary status confirmed.
While we're waiting for Ethereum to return home, can we please have an entire video on how to write different numbers the most efficient way? xD
You know a man is worth listening to when he masters the efficiency of writing numbers!
Hi can you please make video ADA /USD
Ben's engineering mind is the most sound advice.
Trading is all about timing Ben. Listen to the price action and don’t predict.
You're not looking at it from a fundamental standpoint.
The supply of ether was reduced by 1/10 compared to the pow system.
In addition, the constant selling pressure from miners has disappeared.
And if you have coins, you get 5% interest.
Of course you have to think about this too, right?
😂 The excitement around writing 5 is just a pure gem
"if we're being technically correct, which is the best way to be correct." This quote and the 5's 🤣
Serious and brilliant 👏 analysis 👌
5.45 made me laugh more than it should have, how did we start from talking about eth to how to draw fives..😂😂
My only problem with this assessment is since late 2019; Etherium has gone through upgrades. Are these upgrades taken into account with the amount of Etherium held, how much is invested into it, and how much Etherium is left or the amount of Etherium shared per person.
Great stuff Ben
quality tangent at 6:00
I see the logic from a technical perspective, but ETH is not the same ETH that most of the chart has recorded. And most of the bleed that has happened lately due to Gary. I hope you're right, though. I haven't replenished any bags since the last bull run except for BTC
Are you saying that this time it's different? 😂👌
Who else insta thumbs up Benj's videos in the first couple of seconds because you just know the content is gonna be that good?
How can you say the ETH/BTC isn’t holding up when it’s been going sideways within the upper red box you have on your chart? It dipped out of the box to the downside but quickly got back within the box.
STAND BY THOSE 5'S Ben! Conviction!
The alt market will be quite a sight if/when this occurs
ETH is taking the scenic route home.
What have I just witnessed! Drawing a 5 from the bottom up is wrong on so many levels.
To play devils advocate that ETH/BTC chart looks like an ascending triangle
Thank you for the video. Pretty well-founded ideas. I disagree mainly because ETH is now fundamentally different, so I expect ETH/BTC to breakout into higher highs in the coming years.
Best channel ever, I’m convinced with what you are saying, I just hope you’re right
Triple bottom looks like HOME
What if you draw two 5’s in a row? You waste time or do you alternate starting points?
the fact that etereum has not reached the log regression band , makes it even more bullish if you ask me. not that it cant get there tho...
just perfect
thank you for your work
big hello from lisbon portugal
great insights !
Very Dubious Indeed 🤔
How is the bear market in crypto? Well yotubers explain what is the most eficcient way to draw a 5 after a 9😂😂😂
Thanks Ben
ETH was like a growth stock in the previous cycle, a risky speculative digital money. Now it's actually being used on DeFi, smart contracts etc. So I think it's becoming a dividend stock. There's real demand and value, not just speculation
@@cryptonative exactly. I do agree with Ben that price action is cyclical to some extent due to market psychology and risk appetite. There's also the having narrative to pump BTC against ETH next. However I can't confidently ignore that ETH's risk profile fundamentally changed.
I'd say smth like ADA is now what ETH was. A cool valuable project, but we can't be sure that it's gonna make it. So it may dump now and pump harder later
No time to waste writing 5, must analyze eth 😂
When eth hits that new bottom, my friend will be picking up as much as he can in the short flash Crash.
I will tell my grand kids 😅 it was Ben who had hold us with patience during the worst of bear 🐻 market.
bro, if eth goes all the way down to a new low, best believe i'm going almost all in with all my cash sittin around from the last cycle..
lets hope my patience will be fruitful :)
wonder what the range in eth you think the price will fall? Last bear it went to 300. I'm thinking this one it will end at around 575
ETH LETS GOOOOO!!
Is it efficient?
If you start at the top, you are able to use gravity to drop the pen. 😂
nice 5s ser very efficient
Ive never seen anyone write a 5 like me. Thanks ben, love ya buddy
I have been writing my 5's the same way all my life and am just now finding out that is is weird
5 > 5
Bear market 5 discussion
When you realise you have been writing inefficiently all your life
love the efficiency
I didn’t know he could write a 5 normally. Wow! 😂
Home is heading to ETH
I want to be as efficient as Ben and will start writing the fives his way from now on!!
Thank you, Ben. You successfully help me reduce FOMO:) And I am ITC member now:) For one year.
Bob Loukas wrote that eth/btc is bullish. And if we see lower highs is it only what we want to see. That is why I am confused now because I think Ben is right about this. Makes perfect sense. But Bob Loukas is also demigod in trading so..damn
I have been taking cold showers all this while =D
Oh my God! He's dubiously speculating!
Never have seen you using this program before😂
make a video on drawing the number 5 next to other numbers lmao
i write 5s the same way too B
This is pure copium
I will write a 5 when my portfolio is at 5 bucks😂
with the enormous growth in staking , would you agree the stability in price might continue longer than expected?
Hail Mary... scary!
Is there any alt coin now like $LINK in 2018-19.
Is ETH going home in a room with you right now ?
It's nice to have conviction Ben (talking about 5s) 😄
PS: ETH looks really strong, hard to imagine the catastrophic scenario you are describing, ETH has matured from previous cycle I believe
50% correction is not really catastrophic, its healthy and necessary
Why should eth have the valuation it does right now at over $220B? what does it mean for eth to be "looking strong"?
I haven't seen any breakthrough applications that have achieved product market fit and are reaching mass adoption launch any time recently (or arguably at all). I'm an Eth bull thats been working in the sector for 5+ years, so im not a hater - i just don't seem to nearly have the confidence you do in understanding what a fair current valuation is. Would love to understand how you approach valuing it?
Dubious 5s
I don't want to like the video but I do....and did....and appreciate your perspective to keep our heads about us. Thanks....I think:)
Link … horrendous!
TOTAL2 (crypto excl. BTC) had a ¬280% increase in early 2019, and only around 60% in early 2023. How would we compute these diminished returns on the upside into a forecast for downside in the second part of 2023 for ETH/altcoins?
I LIKE
then I WATCH!!!
Thanks Ben!!!
Ben, your 5 is not fine. U need to see a doctor
5
Considering unsubscribing after seeing the '5's being written 😉