Much Higher Interest Rates for Much, Much Longer || Peter Zeihan
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- Опубликовано: 9 май 2024
- Who doesn't love spending their morning trying to understand what the Federal Reserve is doing? Oh, no takers? Well, let's at least look at inflation trends and where I expect interest rates to go.
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#inflation #economy #interestrates
Does the stock market appear to be improving, or is this merely the typical temporary manipulation of the market to draw in new investors? Right now, I have $500k left over from the sale of my house, and I'm wondering whether there are any better investments than stocks.
Get a financial planner asap!!. Do not day trade...you will lose..95% unless you are a master trader its not worth it.
AGREED! Having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q1 2024.
Hello Tmer, How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.
My CFA ’’ Vivian Carol Gioia, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market..!
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
The looming recession and the Fed's rhetoric of raising interest rates have investors extremely concerned. I'm not sure what to do with my $600,000 portfolio yet. because we may not enter a recession, and even if the Fed is hawkish, interest rates may not be raised further.
Everyone is uneasy due to the continuous wars in the Middle East. To get assistance with your portfolio, you ought to speak with an FA.
True, A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far
in times like these, it's crucial to be cautious and not rush into the market , Who is this your FA , my portfolio needs urgent attention , been a lot of loss.
Amber Dawn Brummit is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
She appears to be a true authority in her profession with over two decades of experience. I looked her up on the internet and skimmed through her site, very professional. already sent her an inquiry hoping for a response soon.
Will Zeihan ever actually get to where he’s goin? I’ll keep watching
no, he will keep going like this until he's out of breath and then some
@@ExploreLearnEnglishWithGeorge he never runs out of breath. Trust me I've been waiting.
I assumed he was like david carradine in kung fu ... wandering the land dispensing geopolitical wisdom.
“Have you ever noticed they keep on Wagontraining and never get anywhere?”
Now that you mention it... 😆 LOL
I see the rising interest rate as a very big problem, as more investors will definitely pull out more money from the Stock market. This might have worked when I was still invest-ing with a couple thousand dollars, but it is more difficult now to decide whether to pull out more than $365k from my port-folio. I know some inves-tors still make that despite the strong bear market. In wish I could pull that feat
I think the whole thing about holding stocks for long term will always apply. So I think you should get a quality broker who is able to analyze and pick stocks that will do well in the long term, else you will be in a long bear ride.
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a broker, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst.
This sound interesting. I’m not really one to use pro analysts, but I guess it would not hurt to try one. My portfolio is in the red waters right now
When ‘Carol Vivian Constable’ is trading, there's no nonsense and no excuses. She wins the trade and you win. Take the loss, I promise she'll take one with you.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search for her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
If Peter guided a hiking group, I would definitely sign up. Walking while listening to global insights is my kind of experience.
You clearly enjoy listening to complete and utter bollocks! He's been saying since 2010 that the Chinese economy was collapsing -:) The only thing that's actually collapsing ia US influence, around the world!
He is right about 70% of the time. But I sure like the conviction and confidence in his voice.
@@jerrycallows3906 I think he was right about France being a powerhouse. I visited the country and experienced it.
All that walking and not getting winded. He in shape!
@@jerrycallows3906 70% is pretty good. To me, life is all about probabilities. Those are not bad odds betting on Peter's insights.
The rising interest rate can surely control inflation, but won't prevent erosion of the eroding purchasing power of the US dollar. I have learnt my lesson this time. The banks can't be making money off my money, while inflation eats into it. I have set aside 650k to invest in the stock market now, since that keeps up with inflation, but I don't know how to get started.
If you're new to investing or don't have much time, it's best to get advice from an expert. Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I've learned this from my own experience.
I fully agree and place great value on my advisor's role in guiding my daily investments. They excel in both long and short strategies, managing risk for potential gains and protection against market downturns. Their access to exclusive insights and in-depth analysis makes exceeding expectations a regular outcome. In the two-plus years I've worked with my advisor, I've gained over 1.2million dollars.
@@mikegarvey17who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?
"Gertrude Margaret Quinto" is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment
I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.
My first house bought in 1987 was financed at around 11% for 30 years ($525/month). The total loan was for only $55k. Higher interest rates today are killer because everything is so much higher. That house today would be $300k and the mortgage at today’s rate of 7% would be $1995/month. Inflation is killing America and the World!
Eventually the high interest rates force prices down. If you need to sell and no one can pay the higher price due to increased interest it forces prices down until the average salary can afford your sales price after interest.
Higher rates are not bad for buyers. They're bad for sellers.
I can afford a maximum amount. If interest is now $1,000 per month that reduces how much remaining principal payment I can afford. I am stuck until you lower. I cannot mysteriously make an extra $1,000 per month.
Edit: If someone owns a home and wants to move to a 55+ community, once the reality sets in that rates aren't going down for 2-3 years they'll start to realize they can't move for 2-3 years unless they lower the price.
@@robertmclellan154don't expect a logical outcome haha
Yeah but salaries where a lot less as well.
Leaving middle and working class taxes the same while printing a bunch of money hurts the middle and working classes just as much as the reverse.
Politicians can use smoke and mirrors all they want, but they can’t cheat math.
@@lvn4x 2+2=5 now. Haven't you heard?
These “high” interest rates are pretty much normal. We got used to stupidly low rates that are actually bad for the economy because they encourage people to invest stupidly.
Well put. We should start with stripping armchair bankers of their "banks" before too many 401K's get put into Johnny's Trust Account for the apocalypse later....
Problem is we have price levels that are based on the low interest environment and no govts want prices to fall to meet that higher interest rate reality.
We've got 2% interest rate pricing with banks offering 10% mortgages.
the issue is everyone likes pay raises no one likes pay cuts - specifically with petulant children that were given everything from the Gov - college, pay raises, cars ... etc
"These “high” interest rates are pretty much normal."
The rates are normal. The amount of debt that has to pay it is not.
Along with investing stupidly, those low, low interest rates encouraged people to spend stupidly, too. Flipping cars every 3-5 years is my pet peeve about overspenders.
When your under 30 and watching a Zeihan video: "Ah, i'll have to become even more jaded."
When you’re over 50 it’s wtf not again
Assuming you live in the US, you should feel very lucky and optimistic. Now, any Chinese viewers…👀
yours?
You are?
Under 30 confirmed.
Lol I'm just anxious I guess. turning 30 this year
Try becoming more Educated instead. Better for you.
I'm convinced you started doing these videos partially because you think to yourself when you're walking. I do an hour-day walk and that's all I can do. Thank you I love the information.
I do the same thing. I have full podcasts, work emails, song ideas, business ideas and more when walking (or in the shower). Then when I sit down to work ...... nothing 😂
Nietzche said all truly great thoughts are conceived by walking
@@christopherhooter1937 By that measure, he was paraplegic.
@@jamessullenriotthats my life
He's multi-tasking, duh. Highly efficient people adopt highly efficient behaviors.
Occasionally it would be nice for Peter to end his videos with a quick glance around at some of that gorgeous nature most of us rarely get to see.
I was 15 in 1980. Over my adult life, interest rates have done nothing but decline until recently. It's nice to see a savings account actually earning something again. Too bad inflation is eating it all.
Someone of the same age agrees with you. Interest rates back then were 7+%. But government spending has been out of control for the past 40 years. Both parties guilty.
Yes. Finally some return on my GICs and everything doubles in price.
@@ralphemerson497 It has primarily been the GOP. Reagan was the first to absolutely spike the national debt. Bush II was the other main culprit. The deficit was actually reduced during the Clinton administration. The number is so large now that compound interest makes it impossible to pay it down.
@@q45ij54q I was only able to buy my first home due to the 1986 Reagan tax cuts.
@@q45ij54q You fail to realize that a President does not write spending bills. During those periods you failed to mentioned both Houses were definitely in Democrat control. Did the Republicans gladly go along? Absolutely. Democrats have been the primary drivers of deficit spending. But they rarely received pushback from the red side of the UniParty.
I bet the top line of Professor Zeihan's syllabus for his Geopolitics course says "Bring hiking boots and trail mix."
"You can buy bear spray at the bookstore for $45. It is not required for the course but it is highly recommended."
Remember to bring water💧!
"Also believe everything the government tells you."
Just do it for the future of the country -- a non-partisan issue. --> will not incentivize illegals to cross the border and baby spit.
Amend `U.S. Citizenship By Birth.` "Citizenship by birth" should be granted only to children born to U.S. citizens and permanent residents. In addition, at least one parent must be a U.S. citizen or a permanent resident (Green Card Holder).
Children born to a person under any other visa (temporary - H1B/L1, etc.) category and those illegally residing in the U.S. should NOT be granted automatic Citizenship by Birth.
England did the same in 1983.Post this on the door of every member of Congress in your state and all concerned voters in the community.
Mountain lion will be last video
Peter, you should do a part 2 to this video and talk about what this will mean for the economy and why it’s a major problem.
He's just another youtuber/entertainer. if he knew the answer to your questions , he wouldn't be wasting his time doing a video, he would be rich on a yacht somewhere.
@@rr186650Peter recently back from an extended tour of New Zealand, and he travels all the time. So yeah, to your point, he knows ehat he's talking about, and he's doing pretty much ok on money.
He’s wrong, US will cut rates by November
Great video! Also, one of my favorite trails to hike!
Thinking picked the wrong morning to stop drinking…
You picked the wrong century bud
Someone is a fan of the movie "Airplane".
I picked the wrong morning to stop sniffing glue…
Shirley you must be joking!
Only people buying homes is going to be fucking millionaires and billionaires on zero interest.
We are in big trouble. Nobody is going to be holding equity, assetts.
Imagine talking for nearly 9 minutes on US interest rates without mentioning the national debt and interest payments on it
So you want an hour video? Go somewhere else.
He is a paid shill
Yes because thar is less important
Yeah, like most debt, we're just going to ignore it, and hope it goes away..
@mmm-mq3zr proof? Some have made this same remark, but not a one could provide a shred of proof when asked. Will you be any different, or are you the sort who's understanding only extends to the point where it cannot surmount your own bias, whatever the might be?
The longer you spend on RUclips the more you realize non of these guys actually know what’s going on and they’re just telling us their internal monologue
I think that's called forming your own opinion.
Thank you
That goes for most but with Peter it's the Pentagon & FED's internal monologue your hearing!! Hope this helps you be less confused! 👍
This cracked me. Im a little stoned
From my experience, nobody can predict the future.
Loved your analysis thank you!!
Peter: Please take more long walks! This was GREAT!
When this inflation spike started a couple of years ago I astonished a friend by saying it could last 20 years - it just gets embedded (late 60s, 70s, 80s).
Yeah no chance these corporations return all that profit!
If you look at interest rates overall it’s actually 40 years up and then 40 down.
@@petermalone4193it’s not relevant to now.
You yanks re living far beyond your means and that’s the problem.
Literally impossible with 34 trillion dollars in debt. 😄
@@StarCitizenLab Not impossible if inflation is debasing the value of that debt
What a profound video. I need to rewatch this a couple of times to get this 100%
Thank you.
Higher interest rates for an economy that got used to low interest? Sure, that political nightmare is not something somebody wants to deal with.
Americans can live through any struggle, except an economy that requires businesses to bring in more money than they spend.
Glad Fed is independent
Oh, we’re going to deal. Yes indeed, we are.
Economy grew fine in 1990s with 5% Fed funds rate while home prices rise moderately at 3% a year. The 3% interest rates we had since 2009 led to real estate bubble and malallocation of capital
The American people need to be disciplined.
"Your kids are moving out"??? Whose kids can afford to pay rent ANYWHERE these days?
Rent is $400-500 where I live in the Midwest. Totally doable even without roommates.
Right? My first apartment was $300 a month. Now you can't find anything under $1500 a month where I live.
@@Eisernkreuz Is where you live a place where a young adult would want to go to experience the education and circle they want to be part of, and to play the mating game?
Nah, if its anything like the places at those price in my part of the Midwest, they are run down shoddy places or are in buildings so old they might as well be run down.@@Leftatalbuquerque
@@Eisernkreuzno one wants to live in the Midwest bro. Rent is 1300 a month for a 1 bedroom where I live near beauty and civilization
Danke!
Bro is flexing
I guess I’ll just stay in my cardboard box under the bridge for another 10 years. Thanks Peter.
You can afford a cardboard box? Luxury! I have to live in a puddle.
@@NefastusJones Pfft.. look at these two showoffs with their fancy boxes and puddles :(
People will be living in things like tiny homes and travel trailers in mass very soon. This country is a third world country living on credit.
How's the WiFi?
Finally some economics. Very informative piece. Thank you.
Thanks for the reverse indicator
Very interesting perspective! Subscribed!
Thanks!
Great analysis
This guy just tried to predict the next 10 years lol
😂
His entire shtick is long term predictions and he falls on his face with every single one…
Not sure why he's taken seriously. He's a laughing stock on the rest of the internet just due to how many predictions of his never panned out.
"If you spend 13 minutes a year thinking about macro, you've wasted 10 minutes" - Peter Lynch
@@skynative0099Exactly. A total clown.
Good video👍🏼
We were spoiled for a while, but if you were an adult in the 1980's and 1990's it is going to look like that again. Housing prices should deflate, which will be good for young people today.
When? I'll believe it when I see it
@@omar10213245 depends where you live. Tier 1 city? Not gonna happen. Everywhere else? You’ll see slight drops but most stagnation. Nobody will sell their homes at a loss so instead they will sit and inflation will slowly devalue their homes.
Thanks Peter for interesting topics. I know you made an episode about BRICS currency but I wonder what are your views on the link between the federal reserve interest rate and BRICS countries swapping USD for gold and the impact of flooding the market with large amounts of USD as a result?
Right now I'd say its nil for the next decade (at least). China, Russia, South Africa are all in economic trouble. Can't say too much about India and Brazil as they seem to be a little bit insular and smug with themselves. China, India, and Russia all seem to be cautious of each other. They admitted 10 new members but I don't see much in any of those.
In 1983 my parents slept in line outside of a bank in a tent to make sure they secured the sale interest rate of only 10%
The good old days!
That's actually a pretty cool story.
What city and state? Did that happen a lot that year
@@christophersalinas2328 Columbus, Ohio. I’d have to look at the trends - I was 2.
I bought 50 year strip bonds in 1982 at 17.5 percent in Canada.
Excellent analysis. Finally someone understands and articulates reality. Thank you.
Thank you!
Everyone take a drink, Peter acknowledged Gen X in a video, instead of glossing over us entirely.
Which is interesting now that you mention it because he's Gen X himself.
The truth is, Gen X is too small to matter. There simply isn’t enough of us to affect the kinds of macro issues Peter discusses. There are a couple reasons why we are so small. Baby Boomers began getting divorced en masse in the 60’s and 70’s so that 2nd, 3rd, or 4th sibling that would have been born to an intact family in 1954 wasn’t born in 1974. There is a second big reason as to why more babies weren’t born after 1972.
@@davidwarburton2915 The 2nd big reason is to do with the acquired specific gravity of the 2nd wives ? Eastern Europe running out of credit card hungry babes ?
We always get overlooked.
We don't matter and that's the way we like it. :)
Thank you.🌸
Awesome, this is really really good news!
Excellent analysis as always Peter, I agree with you 💯.
Excellent, the truth always hurts
Agreed
Wow, Peter that place is beautiful! I can’t wait to go back to Colorado. My fiancé’s family live there.😎👍
Can’t figure out where it is. Maybe Morrison.
Full of god nuts and jesus freaks though...
@@FatherGapon-gw6yo Looks Western Slope to me. Morrison has hogbacks, not mesas.
This is not "Financial Advice" I'm merely walking through the desert making money on RUclips while you go to work 😂
I wish I could make money whilst hiking!
OMG. This comment is savage! lol!
@@RT-yh8pi 😁
Yup. Already happening.
for 20 years ive been watching the velocity of money crater and i have just been scratching my head.
Why? Velocity of money doesn't increase when it's all in a dozen mega-banks. If it goes up, you're going to get hammered by inflation.
Velocity of money is just GDP / M2 money supply. The Fed greatly expanded M2, which made the velocity of money collapse. But, only on paper. Nearly all of that extra M2 money was trapped in the banking system. The actual velocity of money in the real economy - the actual exchange of dollars between people - probably didn't change much.
BTC has a lotta velocity....lightspeed
Greeeat. Thanks for that.
Awesome!
These are just normal interest rates
For those of us in 70s. These ARE low rates. Comparative
@@donpet8258 Wait a few months.... they's be right up there with Carter's numbers ..... these kids think they can't afford a home NOW? Wait until banks start requiring minimum of 20% Down payments .....
@@donpet8258 Exactly.
Milton Friedman said spending is taxation because there is no such thing as a free lunch. Spending is out of control
Agreed, Milton always ends up being right, as does Sowell.
Wrong. He said inflation is taxation not spending smh
@@TheMrgoodmanners "Keep your eye on one thing and one thing only: how much government is spending, because that’s the true tax ... If you’re not paying for it in the form of explicit taxes, you’re paying for it indirectly in the form of inflation or in the form of borrowing. The thing you should keep your eye on is what government spends, and the real problem is to hold down government spending as a fraction of our income, and if you do that, you can stop worrying about the debt."
-- Milton Friedman
Milton Friedman was an interesting person. Take a look at what he had to say about illegal immigration.
Spending is fine, if paid for with taxes (not deficit spending). What he said is any increase in money supply needs to match an increase in output.
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced _only_ by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”
at 0:05 we see peter remember he isnt supposed to teleport mid-video
The simple fact that we had zero rates for so damn long is why its messing everything too. We got used to it being cheap to borrow. It should not have been so for so long. Especially now when we need to expand and grow our own supply chains.
Always insightful and very believeable.
This video is very good.
Very very good!
Totally agree.
Interesting. I just subscribed. How high do you think the 10 year Treasury will go?
Increases to money supply made by the federal government also play a major role.
The global M1 supply, which includes all the money in circulation plus travelers checks and demand deposits like checking and savings accounts, was $48.9 trillion as of Nov. 28, 2022, according to Visual Capitalist.
That publication estimated the total value of the M2 supply to be $82.6 trillion.
M1 includes money in circulation plus checkable deposits in banks.
M2 includes M1 plus savings deposits (less than $100,000) and money market mutual funds.
M1 reflects the actual purchasing power in the economy, and M2 reflects the potential purchasing power.
There was also a huge increase in the money supply over the last 4 years.
In 2020, there was a revision in how to calculate money supply. With no revision made to the M2 money supply calculation, it provides a clearer interpretation.
Taking the March 2022 peak money supply of $21.70 trillion and going back to February 2020 (which coincides with the beginning of the official recession) we have an initial starting point of $15.45 trillion.
This two-year period represents an extraordinary increase in the money supply of around 40%.
If you’re going to go expert please don’t spout what sounds like nonsense. If you just said there’s 40% more money it would be more credible than all that seemingly self-contradictory detail.
All of those dollars are locked up in federal assets that don't really exist in a meaningful way.
Additionally money supply changes have an impact in relativity. Literally every nation/economic union on the planet printed like crazy, and the US has been ahead of the ball in terms of quelling money supply gains and then actually seeing a decrease in money supply.
We are about 5 years at this GDP growth from normalizing m2 relative to the past gdp:m2 ratios.
Anyone freaking out about money supply without understanding relativity or relativity to the current size of the economy is out of their depths.
What about the 8 trillion the orange fart added to the deficit?
Wow imagine the money supply going up by 40% while real inflation(not the 'official' garbage numbers) is basically the same... Almost like the two are somehow related.
Explain how inflation was below 2% while interest rates were near 0% and money was being printed full steam during the Obama and Trump years. The economy is more complicated than you think. The key is supply chains, not money supply.
Rates are not even "high" they are just "higher" than the stupid low rates that were in place for way too long and greatly contributed to inflation.
Peter sigh. You have a lot of solid insight to backward looking/current state events - great stuff really. The forward looking proclamations…there’s just so much to unpack. I get the apocalyptic tone has its impact but it’s really running roughshod over the confluence of other factors that will likely play their roles. I suppose the best response is “let’s see.” Good luck
Hey Peter, Love your videos. As a Gen X guy, who believes/hopes I'll live to be 100 or more, I really don't think I'd be in a hurry to shift my retirement accounts to bonds or conservative investments by age 70 (have a while to get there). Though, I think that I'd still want to be in majority big cap index funds even well into my 80's if I'm healthy, and then maybe slowly rebalance. I don't want to miss out on making double-digit gains, as long as my horizon is 7+ years in mutual funds. What are other smart people you know saying about their plans? I think even a lot of boomers may have to -or want to- work or have a business much later, esp as people are living longer, so the whole generation may slowly leave the work and investing mode over a longer period of time, mainly so they won't run out of money later if they're still around in another 30 years.
The FED ALWAYS forgets or leaves out its roles in these financial issues as well. They are NOT innocent in these major downturns.
For decades, people praised Greenspan as a genius until 2008 when he admitted he made a mistake. How "low" on regulations did work it out? Greed is not good overall and the "free" market will not regulate itself.😂
Thankfully, after twenty years, the adults are finally back in charge at the Federal Reserve. 7% is historically a low interest rate. The dollar is the strongest currency in the world, the U.S. is onshoring or nearshoring manufacturing, and real value-added jobs are being emphasized (i.e. not the FIRE industries). Eventually, the housing market will correct and young people will be able to afford a house once again.
The doomsters that are always screaming about the impending fall of the U.S. are going to be very disappointed this century. While the U.S. economy isn't great, the rest of the world is absolutely screwed going forward.
I think that a lot of the people commenting on this video didn't really listen to what he was saying, because all they can think about is how this all relates to house prices and rental costs. I keep assuring my 21-year old daughter to be patient and shrewd, as the madness of high real estate and rents will eventually shake out of the system somehow. I don't have a crystal ball, so I don't know how it will exactly play out, but I am old enough to have seen that no trend lasts forever. I see a lot to be optimistic about with what Peter is saying here (vis-a-vis the build out of industrial infrastructure, especially).
Ok boomer. The fed is destroying us. Talk to me in ten years if this country still exists
@@atikameg73 they are victim of russia-china demoralization then projected their feeling to nitpick everything
Hi Peter. Love your contents and videos and your views on various topics.
Can i ask to talk a bit about green-flaction, please? Thanks
Nice head handle, Peter!!
Where were your videos 5 years ago??? 😭 would have been like having a crystal ball!
He was around but no where near as well known
This was from Jan of 2020 before we knew COVID was coming
ruclips.net/video/_-1MquvFmUA/видео.htmlsi=pFmLws35zqtv6v7D&t=660
Peter has been. Retiring boomers and GenX will be taking money out of stocks and capital investments and putting it into safer investments like bonds as they transition out of employment and into retirement. All that capital will be exiting the system.
Some of us have been on this since 2008
Buy his earlier books. His core thesis hasn't changed in over a decade, and the first book was published in 2014.
LOL, he claimed Ukraine would win he war and russia would have an econmic collapse due to sanctions. He's just an idiot with an inflated ego
Remember when he said Wheat prices were gonna be high for a long time, and then they stabilized very quickly? Gives you pause huh.
Just wait, timing is the hardest part.
Recently when he was on Joe Rogan he said bitcoin was on it's way to zero. It was at $20. Now it's Over $60k
Hes only one man, one perspective. There are many people/organizations who agree with him and who disagree with him. He has predicted a lot of things correctly and also got a lot of things wrong. I like hearing his perspective but there will never be someone who gets everything right all the time. You might be looking for Jesus.
Highly recommend adding Chinese subtitles. I suggested this one other time to a wellness doctor and he did it. His following is now massive.
Sharp insights from a thoughtful man
US gov can't handle higher for longer, 1 Trillion in gov debt interest payments. How does this factor in?
Imagine talking for nearly 9 minutes on US interest rates without mentioning the national debt and interest payments on it,
or the fact that most corporations used inflation as a cover to further increase prices after supply caught up with demand as they gouge us to death!
Imagine not mentioning $7 trillion dollars in government free spending.
He mentioned it a few videos back comparing to Japan. Long story short, he'd be happy if the US borrowed 3x more.
@@darthkek1953 Japan runs a trade surplus, have their debt held domestically, and still have their currency in freefall.
US would be in a worse position with same levels of debt as Japan today
@@pipdickens7111 no Republican talks about the 7+ trillion in debt Trump added to our national debt in his 4 years....they only complain about it when Dem's spend the money.
Love that scrub oak forest
Love that rye parental dressing down. Wall st should tremble with fear. (yes that is amused sarcasm you hear dripping) good on you! :)
My first mortgage had an 8% interest rate and I was thrilled to get it. People younger than me don't understand super low interest rates are not normal
I wouldn't be so bothered if I didn't have to borrow so much for an inflated asset and literally keep a roof over my head.
Sorry but high rates is not a "law"
@@johanjonsson3591 Keep dreaming. You won't see low interest rates for decades.
@@cantrell0817 well we in Sweden did just the first ratecut in over 8 years so.....i dont need to dream.
@@johanjonsson3591 How is one rate cut in Sweden meaningful? Lol
Inflation has been due to mass spending, not fall in consumption from Covid.
Supply chain cuts in COVID, consumption boom after COVID with all the stimulus in the economy.
It's both, the whiplash between closing down for covid (minimal consumption) and then reopening all at once (massive consumption) created huge lags in the supply chain which is only just now getting worked out.
Spending with newly printed money
can you talk about Sec 174 and how it'll impact the Technology sector jobs?
Gratitude
Yet people are expecting a rate cut sometime soon 🙄
Well the problem is we’re gonna enter recession if we’re not already in one. At that point the Federal Reserve will want to prop the economy up with cheap debt. Problem is inflation goes up. They’re backed into a corner. Either interest rates need to come down or prices for goods and services need to reset.
Keep printing money and it’s all over
Everybody likes their Free Stuff. Everybody. Higher interest rates are like taking a Christmas candy cane away from a child. This dynamic is also why it is nearly impossible to cut or eliminate government spending programs, once enacted.
Because they're expecting things to be the way they were since 1945. But that's not where things are headed. That way (that we all grew up with and thought as 'normal') is all but over.
It's going to be cut for the election in November. We have a highly political federal reserve
love Zeihan, he is the example of how generalized knowledge is superior to all else. If you read this Zeihan, could you do a crash course on how you understand currencies to work, with all the different factors like, developing vs developed countries, balance of trade, reserve currency, how much the currency is used etc etc
He ain't reading it lol
@@ForageGardener lol worth a try. Seems to have a good understanding of the underlying concepts of what makes currencies work
Generalized knowledge is not superior to all else. It is just very practical and necessary until it's time to focus on the trees instead if the whole forest. It's part of the whole. You absolutely need technical specialists working in a coordinated fashion with generalists to produce results.
Your own comment seeks answers to specifics which I've never heard Peter speak on. He doesn't get extremely specific in his latest book either.
ok "USER" you tell him! what a faceless moron
A lot of the nuances of macroeconomics definitely require a full college level series of courses to understand properly. You also need to know calculus.
i am always more impressed by his hiking than his words
That was a pretty nasty wildfire in that area you were hiking
If it was a wildfire, that scrub oak would be ash. I think it just hasn't put out leaves yet. It was probably under a blanket of snow last week.
You didn't mention trillions of do9llars of deficit spending, also going into the economy causing inflation.
When the GDP growth cools down, so will inflation. That´s the simple but extremely powerful mechanism in play. Re-visit this video in a couple of years and you´ll realize why the economy is a very complex system where it´s almost impossible to make these kind of predictions Zeihan is doing here.
Countervailing force will be robotics and automation reducing the cost of productivity, though I would guess at least 5 years before that puts on deflationary pressure.
Hey I'm an expat living in Europe, could you do something on the USDEUR pair? Or maybe an outlook on the strength of the USD?
I think the conclusions Peter spoke about are right in this video. The background reasons are perhaps glossed over. Demographics, wall street, federal reserve all have their part to play. However, Covid was bad for inflation because money is supposed to represent payment for goods and services. However, that stopped being true - for the whole world - while Covid was in play. No work means no value given, means the money isn't worth what it was. When governments just print more money, the money loses its value. In fact, the only reason America hasn't turned into Venezuala is because Europe/Japan/China/etc. have all been so irresponsible that there hasn't been better options for the world and we're kind of still holding our place. Austerity will have to have its day, and economic health in America is a decade plus away, if we start being responsible. Its not merely a demographic thing, or a wall street thing, or a federal reserve thing. Most certainly the next President won't fix it, though they could wreck it further. To portray it as such is to declare the magic box will correct and we needn't worry. Government spending must go down. People must work hard and reduce their dependence.
It took longer to read your post than to listen to the vid.
Well Said.
This was all P1ann3d C0v1d to create inflation
You are excluding the most important factor in the valuation of the Us currency: it is the global reserve currency and because exchange rates are fixed by the fed, it is not tied to the physical amount of currency in circulation - which actually had been decreasing prior to 2019.
There are many reasons why America isn’t bound to the same fate as Venezuela, the fiscal policies of other nations have little reason to do with it.
The government will never willingly decrease its spending and the fact we have a fiat currency means they have a perfect incentive to artificially maintain inflation at a consistent rate to gain greater control over fiscal policies.
Ask yourself this, if America defaulted on its debts; to whom would the sum be owed?
@@youarewrong5523 The US dollar would stop being the world currency if America defaulted and that would have cascading consequences (including inflationary pressures here and abroad). Even though some think the US is "too big to fail", we aren't. The world is a constant fight for the top. If we fall from the top, we lose all the preference and privilege associated with being the world currency.
Remember this statement "inflation is just transitory" - Janet Yellen, 2021.
Trump also over spent. But what you don't do is keep spending when inflation is soaring. That's pure stupid.
She is right; she just didn't mention it was going to be over a 30 year period.
@@kalifornistan9166 ha ha ha, indeed
@@kalifornistan9166 ha ha ha, indeed.
can someone clearly explain to me what the bottom line point and sub points are of this video, i still can't seem get it...
I see some people talking about price gouging. What percentage of inflation can be attributed to that if it’s a thing?
I’m always concerned about mountain lions when he goes hiking.
Don't worry. He won't hurt them.
When my wife and I bought our house in 1982 the interest rate was 15% and hard to get. The job market was tight and car loans were expensive. Most boomers we know are still in the stock market but are slowly moving to CDs because of the national debt and the future problems with social security. Many of this administration's policies are spending us into a hole we may not get out of. Inflation is here to stay and compound daily.
Your house cost $30k?
You say this administration’s spending policies,… you mean every administration since Clinton, correct! Every one of them, Republican or democrat, have added to our national debt!
My wife and I built our house in 1982. We gambled that interest rates would come down and that the construction slump would mean we could get better pricing on subs for work we could not do ourselves. In the end that worked out well for us and we long ago had a mortgage burning party. Being retirees property tax is now a larger portion of our annual expenses then when we were working.
We still have a mixed retirement portfolio however Social Security is the major portion or our retirement income. I find it interesting that concern about the national debt only seem to occur during Democratic administrations. If I had my druthers administrations would run surpluses during good times so that they had the ability to deficit spend during bad.
15% doesn't mean shit when your house is $60k.
Trump spent more so......
Were you hiking above Ken Caryl Ranch/Valley in that video?
Hey petter , considering the top one percent own so much wealth and I don’t think they are going to change there investments or draw down there savings, how does that play into your calculations ?
"rate increases for the next 2-5 years!" 🙄
Or until the realestate bubble pops if we don't have morons in charge. It's basically financing the elderly boomers until they sold everything off. We aren't ready for this. So it's also inflation to slow the realestate slow down.
Absolute none sense. What would we be paying in interest on the debt annually Peter? Would it be more than the military?
@@danielmarks5133 Depends what inflation does. You can't just wish inflation away. Higher inflation, higher rates. That's how it works unless someone can convince bond investors to invest in guaranteed loss.
Funny, but I am more capital rich than when I retired but then I didn’t cash in, but kept on investing! Andrew Carnegie thought dividends are wonderful and so do I!
In 1993 we bought a house in Sweden, the bank suggested us to go for fixed interest rate at 13,75%… we gambled and later we got 9,95 and locked the interest rate… and it went lower and lower.
Isn't this the same guy who said that Bitcoin is going negative at Joe Rogan's podcast 18 months ago. Sure I will pay attention to this intelligent man
I mean he didn’t say when
Printing money like crazy along with slashing Domestic energy production helped get us here.
Energy production of the domestic variety at all time high
@@fractalfred1so it couldn’t have been higher?
When everyone was talking about higher inflation rates than the reported ones based on cheese, I didn’t expect rate cuts in the near future.
Thanks for this. I was wondering if interest rates would drop and now you've said they won't they probably will!