At or Below freezing in IMC without de-ice is a great NoGo. One of mine learned the hard way, Single Engine + Night + Mountains = NoGo. I learned that while attempting it plus IMC + Ice. Gratefully I made it just south of Tahoe where the MEA dropped to 9000. By the time I got to that point the controller cleared me to 9000 and I was already there but continued descending out of no choice of my own but to maintain control. At each step down I was at the altitude when cleared. At 6000 it was above freezing and complete control shortly returned. Mountains at Night; I was on a mountain check out just after my complex in an Arrow II. Tahoe back to Reid-Hillview. Over Donner the instructs cuts the engine and announces "your engine has failed". Did the routine and the check list after which he says OK, now your not going to get the engine back. What now. I am a deer in the headlights and nothing visible anywhere and not enough altitude to get to a known landing site! He says "set it up for a survival glide, minimum controllable airspeed, and hope for the best". A statement came to mind from very early in my training. "You cannot choose to not land, but you always have the choice about taking off."
I passed my CFI check last month, and on my "routine" 1.5 hr return in my 172, I had a line of just "Green" on Foreflight along my route. No rain near me, 8-10 miles vis, but it just looked "weird." It was moving in my direction, so I was stuck flying along under this green blob, but was dry. Then I saw Virga (Turbulence indicator), but still no yellow, so I thought, "OK, it's just rain, not convective." I planned divert options, just in case. Then very small yellow blobs appeared in my 15 min old Foreflight display. Soon, the autopilot began to pitch up and GS decayed...ok, a gust front or down draft. Time to hand fly. Then regional jets began reporting "light to moderate chop." Then a regional jet reported "SEVERE TURBULENCE" but no injuries, this is all on my sector's radio freq! Oh man, where's my diverts! I turned 90 degrees in a bid for my divert area, and with the faster GS, was able to get to clearer skies. Finally landed at my destination 2.2 hrs total, sweating buckets, glad to be home.
I'm not a pilot, yet. However, I've been on the planet long enough to get an idea when someone is speaking from a position of genuine knowledge and concern for the safety of their fellow humans. I like these guys.
Thanks for sharing personal mins. We all have them and a lot of them are different, usually based on a past “I’ll never do that again” experience. It’s good to hear what makes a seasoned pilot say “nope, we’re not going”.
I agree with most of this, but I don’t agree that there are forces in a thunderstorm that can tear a small plane apart. Only pilots can push and pull a plane apart in those situations. Having flown into thunderstorms for a living, with light aircraft, I think it’s very important that pilots understand that if they get into a cell(by accident of course, they’re best avoided at all costs) it will be rough, but it will not rip your plane apart, without your help. If you can, do an immediate 180 degree rate one turn and get out. However, if you get stuck, keep the wings level and fly as close to the Va(maneuvering speed) as you can, but do NOT try to maintain altitude, let it take you up and down. Don’t push and pull, that will rip the plane apart or at least bend it(I’ve seen this). This assumes you’re below the freezing level. I worked on a project that has a history of over 60 years with light aircraft flying into TRW+, and they’ve never lost an aircraft.
Great video. I think the most important takeaway is having personal minimums that you WILL NOT CROSS. Jason is a professional CFII with thousands of hours, and he states that he will not violate his personal minimums.
Jason, love your no gos as well as all your videos. Flying bank checks in the 80s we never did this instead attempting to avoid thunderstorms via preflight briefing and observation, sometimes without airborne radar, sometimes scary. These days I fly my own aircraft, VFR only so icing and some of these other issues aren’t a player but as Scott mentioned having visual contact with meteorological activity is the key. Flying blind in the clouds opens up all the risks you speak of. Keep up the good work, I find your videos educational and well made / entertaining.
Before I got my instrument rating I never flew above the clouds, ever, because I didn’t want to risk getting caught above them. Now that I have my instrument rating I won’t fly in clouds when the temp is below freezing because 1) I don’t have a lot of experience yet and 2) why risk it. I felt so much better when I heard your second rule because until then I thought I was being overly cautious.
I a big believer that it's hard to be "overly cautious". I have seen friends and colleagues die in airplanes over the last two + decades ... even Scott Crossfield (famous test pilot) ... everyone has their own risk equation to figure out, and that's fine with me. But don't let anyone give you a hard time for being "too cautious", including yourself.
Exactly...why risk it. There have been many days here in Wisconsin when I could have gone but didn't because there were clouds along the way with temperatures aloft below freezing. I have TKS but not FIKI and bailed on the flight every time. I have had some ice form very quick on descent in just a 500' layer and it was an alarming lesson.
I'm adding the yellow return to my no-go list. It makes sense. Lightening in the area is one of my personal "get down on the ground" factors. I'll just wait out the storm.
Thanks for sharing this...It made me think back to a day (almost 10 years ago now) when I wish I had understood some of this better then I did. KSAC to KRHV in a C172, fortunately NORCAL was nice and never mentioned the heading and altitude deviations while they worked me through that crap. But having watched this, and knowing what I know now, I would not have made that trip... it was green on radar tending towards yellow, but not really...but yes, really... as I like to tell my students now...learn from my mistakes.
For sure. We have to try and learn from each other's mistakes. Once you feel that "I'd rather be on the ground" feeling for real, it's a permanent decision making game changer.
I worked a 172 IFR training accident in FL where the pilots were lured into a sucker hole by controllers. As I remember, they spent two minutes fighting to keep the airplane upright and came out of the bottom at 800' AGL. I worked for Cessna and talked to the CFI. He scolded me for how poorly we built the airplane, given the fact that the right door popped off and hit the horizontal stab!! He called me back some time later and apologized for his statements. I dont think many single-engine airplanes could have survived that ride.
Thanks for this video. As a 38 year airline pilot recently coming back to GA (C182), I am very interested in the subject of personal minimums. The 2 you outlined here line up pretty well with what I’ve come up with so far. Interested in your other 2 no-go’s.
Hi Tom, I just stumbled upon your comment and wanted to suggest some ideas for minimums from the ones I incorporated when I instructed on light pistons, do with them as you will: 600-2 (ceiling - vis) for single engine IFR - not just for the airports of intended use but for the entire route of flight. the fact that the flight is IFR with LPV and ILS all around doesn't mean my engine won't quit on me enroute. In most light ASEL at Vg it gives approximately 2 minutes to ground impact - which is hopefully enough to find a place to land. Runway length - at least takeoff over 50' plus landing over 50' - same reason - enough runway to start TO run, rotate, lose an engine somewhere until 50' and bring it back to the runway for a full stop. I used that for light twins for the same reason. Wind speeds for TO/Landing: X-Wind compt.: No more than max demonstrated. Max sustained surface wind speed: no more than half Vs Max total wind increment (half sustained plus the whole gust factor) no more than 20kts - the reason is a combination between controllability and the speed potentially fluctuating from Vref to Vfe. If conditions call for a larger increment I consider the airport unusable. Of course no WS reported or forecast. No active showers currently in the vicinity. No flying in icing conditions at all - if ATC doesn't cooperate with avoidance clearances it's grounds for PAN-PAN. Just my 2 cents. Safe flying.
I think the best point made is also one he seems to ignore - the importance of local weather stations with local knowledge. Even in times of heavy precipitation, much of Coastal California doesn't see thunderstorm activity and sees little turbulence in the clouds. That seems to be why SHRA and rain forecasts rarely get turned into thunderstorm forecasts, let alone actual thunderstorms. Often, these showers are in clouds with tops as low as 100-110, which is obviously a safer potential scenario than CBs reaching FL410. I realize this is a fairly localized weather phenomenon, but also one that was the subject here in this video. Icing is a whole different story. I'm happy to be a California ice chicken who is thinking about Plans B and C when it is even +2 in dry clouds. My issue is with the one consistent beef I have with our otherwise stellar ATC - there needs to be flexibility in these scenarios for altitude and routing, especially where MVA is an issue.
An interesting number to figure out (and I think it's contained in Project Rough Rider, if you want to search it) would be what vertical wind velocities are required to hold up the amount of water that would produce a yellow radar return. I can't remember off hand, but I believe it was 30-50 feet per second and for sure that it is potentially aircraft damaging. So even if the yellow return does not "turn into" a thunderstorm it might still have enough force to damage your airplane. It might also be in a transition to something more extreme (that still does not become a thunderstorm). That was Scott's point when he jokingly said, "what's a thunderstorm the moment before lightning strikes?" He might just as well have said, "what do you call a thunderstorm right before it becomes a thunderstorm but never takes that final leap?" It's "just" a rain shower. A very scary, potentially aircraft damaging rain shower. Scott was saying the sometimes meteorologists include that in the disseminated information as a kind of "shot across the bow" (moderate rain showers distant to the southeast, for example.)
In the video, he notes that the danger would be from the turbulence caused. When you don't have hail or turbulence, the idea that water alone could be damaging seems pretty thin.
@@N1120A interesting topic and discussion here! The point isn't that water would be damaging. There's gravity, water has weight, and there has to be an opposing force (vertical wind inside the cloud) to keep these water molecules from dropping to form a yellow return (or greater), which would be your turbulence and I believe Jason's point referencing the article. 30 ft/s is around 1800 ft/min sort of updraft. If we are looking at radar returns, we are not seeing turbulence but precipitation. How can we then use what tools we have to possibly see turbulence in rain showers then? By their return signatures, green, yellow, red, etc., and I believe that was the intended point and word of caution by Scott. If you have no in-flight radar services, maybe take that rain shower designation with some serious thought and caution as well.
Great topic...fellow RUclipsr Jerry Wagner flew through what he knew was the top of a cloud with Ice...10 seconds in and out the other side with ice all over everything...so fast! I will never forget that.
Be careful with relying on his videos. He's become a running joke in several aviation circles for doing illegal things in now-deleted videos, like continuing approaches below minimums without the runway in sight with a full scale deflection of the glide slope, and there are FAA inspectors who are aware of his actions.
Been in yellow and don’t want to go do it again. Most important in go/no go for me is, can I circumnavigate the yellow or worse? I once deviated around a large thunderstorm from 150 miles away. The controller didn’t cover that area and I had to tell him that there were storms at my 12:00.
Daniel Low I have also gone through yellow in my Cherokee and at one point I couldn’t hear the engine or radios over the incredible sound of the rain on the windshield and watching the sheer amount of water washing over the wings and falling off the trailing edge was incredible. I do my best to stay away from that now but it was a great experience and I never enter Imc above maneuvering speed.
Really interesting. Lightning depends on other conditions, its not as simple as greater precip/turbulence= Lightning. Just to take an extreme example, many tropical storms and hurricanes contain little or no lightning, you still aren't going to fly in it!
Few years ago a paragliding competition got cancelled due to weather and pilots left the take off spot. One pilot decided to fly straight down to the landing spot. The pilot got picked up in a thunderstorm in early stages of development, ending up at FL 210 , ( yes 21000 feet) the collapsed paraglide rapped around, freezing was very eminent, with the emergency reserve para out. After more than 30 minutes the storm “rejected ” the nearly frozen pilot and he landed in a field. All that was recorded on his flight computer..... just a example of the strength of nature’s elements!!!
Similar minimums for me. Being in the Midwest, I will consider going in the clouds if the temperatures are below freezing, but only under very, very specific circumstances. There cannot be any icing PIREPs, the clouds must be above the minimum IFR altitude, and if I'm going through them to get on top, I must either have numerous recent tops reports or be able to see through the clouds (e.g. a broken layer). Basically, there cannot be any known icing (per the regs) and I must have a guaranteed way out if there ends up being icing or I won't even think about it. Most days do not meet my strict requirements but there are some days, like if there's a 500 foot thick stratus layer, that I'll consider.
@@TheFinerPoints a serious question, how is it possible for there not to be icing in clouds below zero? Or is it when the air is so cold it's not water but ice particles (already frozen)?
You're sure correct on flying in the Great Lakes; esp. Spring anf Fall. After a cold frontal passage, sometimes you get these "dirty Highs" w/fast developing CUs midday. Surface temps around 50 w/strong lapse rates; virga everywhere and breezy. By afternoon, wx radar looks like a pizza!
Yesterday I was able to fly from noon to 2:00 just before the TAF at salt lake indicated showers in the vicinity starting around 3:00 and it was a rough time. I don’t usually suffer from motion sickness, but I was feeling pretty rough about an hour in to my 2 hour flight. I also spent much of the flight with reduced power settings to get closer to maneuvering speed because it felt too bumpy to be at normal 182 cruise speeds. I can definitely see why you would avoid stronger convective activity in the area when filing IFR.
This was super helpful. What about clouds in temperatures significantly less than zero, say -15 or -20? My understanding is that Ice forms rapidly either side of zero but is less prevalent 15 degrees over or under.
- surface winds beyond 25kts (in my local area) and - rather detailed takeoff minimums (pretty much matching Part 135 mins). There is a video at Patreon that goes through all four of them in more detail. I'm trying to make sure I provide valuable content for free but there is also tons of content on Patreon.com/learntfp (over 180 videos) and that support is very helpful (especially in these times of no flying).
I am a new pilot and a late starter. I am 58 years old (totally pissed that I didn't start years ago) I passed my check ride back in December and I am at about 300 hours. Recently I have made a couple of VFR flights in 100% overcast 2000 ft above my flight level. I have always flown around, never through, light green and green cells. I based my decision to continue on the overall viability. The visibility was greater than 50 miles so it was easy to see the rain and compare it to the Ipad. Given the potential for lightning and a change yellow...l Am I making a mistake? The overcast and inability to see the tops is what makes me nervous.
Hi Jason, I so agree with the Hoover comment of staying within your and planes limits at all times. I fly IFR in New Zealand and as we are surrounded with water, the icing issue dwindles away somewhat. If ice is encountered we can often get down to MSA and across to over the sea aided with GPS and ATC with own terrain eventually. I often wonder how you manage in the US continent without these escape routes, but guess you would approach to land at nearest IFR runway. NZ doesn't have nexrad weather so we fly blind enroute with GA equipment. CB's are seldom as treacherous as the US and a few times when caught IFR have slowed up, descended where possible for less turbulence. My wife said when caught in one a few weeks ago IFR (not forecast) ; is that one of those big clouds you keep saying "you never want to fly into one of those". Your videos are great I love em, keep the good work up.
You had some great points, but I think you missed one very critical thing. What is the overall weather trend? Looking at big picture is key to understanding what lies ahead. Yellow is okay, if it diminishing. Personal minimums also play into each persons decision, Private pilot vs. ATP. As a CFII in northern MN, I have teach about IFR flying in below freezing conditions half the year. Biggest thing is to have escapes. My rule is minimum TWO guaranteed outs. Ice equip is only 1 out! I am always looking a big picture. Why will I be in ice, how long, what are tops, bottoms, etc... Bottom line, always have at least two ways out! The icing probability and severity analysis charts on the imagery section in Foreflight are great tools that I have found to be overall trustworthy.
I would check out Rod Machado. He has a course on color coded radar and is the one who turned me on to Project Rough Rider, I bet there is good stuff there. Rodmachado.com
I have flown through a yellow "rain shower" Rocked my world and I will never, never do that again. I consider the yellow edge of the radar return as my marker to stay at least 10 miles away.
If I used the freezing level rule you use, I would not be able to fly 4 months of the year in the northeast. There are ways to fly IFR in the northeast in the weather with a pretty good degree of safety. It does require a more refined knowledge of meteorology and having a plan B and plan C if the excrement hits the ventilator.
I flew for 20 years from Missouri and the freezing level was an important data point but not in and if itself a nogo item. The issue for me is the question: is there available airspace below that is above freezing? That becomes the “out”.
Daniel Low your thinking sounds like mine. Preps also help a lot. Flying in cold air with snow is not a big deal, although I lost comm a couple of times due to precipitation static. Flying in cold with supercooled precip is another thing entirely. To me it was never a simple go/no-go based on temperature alone. It was much more nuanced.
I'm not instrumented rated but when I get there I'll stick with your personal minimums. I flew a long VFR cross country in intermittent light rain (it doesn't sound light) and a fairly high overcast. That was back in the late 80's when we didn't know what we didn't know. Ie. We didn't have ForeFlight to show us enroute weather that is 15m or so old. I fully understand that we should always keep in mind that the weather we see on the screen isn't what's there now but dang... that's some Buck Rogers stuff going on right there lol It's a good time to be a pilot
Jacob Parsons haha yeah, bad choice of words there. Still meaning to change that ... what I meant to say was “career” maybe. It’s my only job and it’s how I support my family. Not planning to do anything else. What word do you think best says that?
The Finer Points, I believe that professional is the correct term. You clearly demonstrate a strict and standardized method of education and training that adheres to accepted practice and regulations.
I really wish I could see the benefits of IFR. I feel like there is a very slim window between IFR and Dangerous IFR. The majority of tragic accidents seem to happen in or around the clouds. Everyone says if you have you IFR certificate then you will be a safer pilot but I feel like VFR pilots are way better off not getting into these situations in the first place. Where is the ice? In the clouds. Where are the thunderstorms? In the clouds. Where is it always turbulent? In the clouds. Where do you experience spacial disorientation? In the clouds. Where has the majority of structural damage due to overloaded surfaces occurred? In the clouds. If you look at these facts it is far safer not being an IFR pilot and introducing all of these scenarios than just flying around the storm in VFR. If you can't get around it set down wait an hour or two for the storm to pass then take back off. How hard is that. Why take something that isn't that difficult and is a ton of fun then make it horrible and not fun at all. Unless your are someone who has to fly everyday or for your job don't bother.
This pair of no go items is really just the privilege of your location. The flip side of that is the incredible lack of competence you can find in your part of the world when it rains and people try to drive, or a CFII is asked to operate a helicopter in marginal weather. There are lots of people flying light airplanes to pay the bills who would have a hard time following your rules and keeping a job.
Yellow equals increased risk. Risk assessment requires balancing risk reward benefit. So filing into yellow is a poor preflight risk assessment. On the ground we can solve most problems because we are not committed. Inflight avoid yellow, if necessary leave yourself an out. Yellow combined with RED is really asking for trouble. Great video applauded.
The met guy was way out of the normal pilot's ability to even understand. Of course, it depends on the aircraft so light singles would take and an extra layer of precaution. I've been a CFI-ii-mei ATP and chief flight instructor for an airline. If you are flying the line you are in different aircraft and at a more professional level. I did not like the met guy because he's more met than pilot. Under your rules, you're right since you seem to have limited time flying IFR. Of course, you don't fly into thunderstorms, unless you're flying around them and get caught in an embedded storm, as when flying routes daily in Florida.
Good info, and a good source, but I would rather read a transcript. Guy sounded like he was eating and sucking on his teeth and lips the entire time. Right into the mic, so right into my ear. God that shit is beyond irritating. It tends to make things unlistenable.
If the internet has given us one great thing, it's access to amazing content like this.
Very humbled to hear you say that. Thank you.
This is GREAT stuff... love it. More stuff with Scott please!
FlightChops shut up steve ... lol
Agreed!
Damm it's FlightChops
I find your work here very comprehensive and valuable. As a student pilot, coming 60 years old, I'm gathering as much "good info" as possible.
At or Below freezing in IMC without de-ice is a great NoGo. One of mine learned the hard way, Single Engine + Night + Mountains = NoGo. I learned that while attempting it plus IMC + Ice. Gratefully I made it just south of Tahoe where the MEA dropped to 9000. By the time I got to that point the controller cleared me to 9000 and I was already there but continued descending out of no choice of my own but to maintain control. At each step down I was at the altitude when cleared. At 6000 it was above freezing and complete control shortly returned. Mountains at Night; I was on a mountain check out just after my complex in an Arrow II. Tahoe back to Reid-Hillview. Over Donner the instructs cuts the engine and announces "your engine has failed". Did the routine and the check list after which he says OK, now your not going to get the engine back. What now. I am a deer in the headlights and nothing visible anywhere and not enough altitude to get to a known landing site! He says "set it up for a survival glide, minimum controllable airspeed, and hope for the best". A statement came to mind from very early in my training. "You cannot choose to not land, but you always have the choice about taking off."
Thanks for that story, sounds like you were pretty lucky. I love that saying from early in your training, thanks!
I passed my CFI check last month, and on my "routine" 1.5 hr return in my 172, I had a line of just "Green" on Foreflight along my route. No rain near me, 8-10 miles vis, but it just looked "weird." It was moving in my direction, so I was stuck flying along under this green blob, but was dry. Then I saw Virga (Turbulence indicator), but still no yellow, so I thought, "OK, it's just rain, not convective." I planned divert options, just in case. Then very small yellow blobs appeared in my 15 min old Foreflight display. Soon, the autopilot began to pitch up and GS decayed...ok, a gust front or down draft. Time to hand fly. Then regional jets began reporting "light to moderate chop." Then a regional jet reported "SEVERE TURBULENCE" but no injuries, this is all on my sector's radio freq! Oh man, where's my diverts! I turned 90 degrees in a bid for my divert area, and with the faster GS, was able to get to clearer skies. Finally landed at my destination 2.2 hrs total, sweating buckets, glad to be home.
Thanks for the story!
OMG virga 😱😬
I'm not a pilot, yet. However, I've been on the planet long enough to get an idea when someone is speaking from a position of genuine knowledge and concern for the safety of their fellow humans. I like these guys.
Thanks for sharing personal mins. We all have them and a lot of them are different, usually based on a past “I’ll never do that again” experience. It’s good to hear what makes a seasoned pilot say “nope, we’re not going”.
I agree with most of this, but I don’t agree that there are forces in a thunderstorm that can tear a small plane apart. Only pilots can push and pull a plane apart in those situations. Having flown into thunderstorms for a living, with light aircraft, I think it’s very important that pilots understand that if they get into a cell(by accident of course, they’re best avoided at all costs) it will be rough, but it will not rip your plane apart, without your help. If you can, do an immediate 180 degree rate one turn and get out. However, if you get stuck, keep the wings level and fly as close to the Va(maneuvering speed) as you can, but do NOT try to maintain altitude, let it take you up and down. Don’t push and pull, that will rip the plane apart or at least bend it(I’ve seen this). This assumes you’re below the freezing level. I worked on a project that has a history of over 60 years with light aircraft flying into TRW+, and they’ve never lost an aircraft.
Great video. I think the most important takeaway is having personal minimums that you WILL NOT CROSS. Jason is a professional CFII with thousands of hours, and he states that he will not violate his personal minimums.
Jason, love your no gos as well as all your videos. Flying bank checks in the 80s we never did this instead attempting to avoid thunderstorms via preflight briefing and observation, sometimes without airborne radar, sometimes scary. These days I fly my own aircraft, VFR only so icing and some of these other issues aren’t a player but as Scott mentioned having visual contact with meteorological activity is the key. Flying blind in the clouds opens up all the risks you speak of. Keep up the good work, I find your videos educational and well made / entertaining.
Before I got my instrument rating I never flew above the clouds, ever, because I didn’t want to risk getting caught above them. Now that I have my instrument rating I won’t fly in clouds when the temp is below freezing because 1) I don’t have a lot of experience yet and 2) why risk it. I felt so much better when I heard your second rule because until then I thought I was being overly cautious.
I a big believer that it's hard to be "overly cautious". I have seen friends and colleagues die in airplanes over the last two + decades ... even Scott Crossfield (famous test pilot) ... everyone has their own risk equation to figure out, and that's fine with me. But don't let anyone give you a hard time for being "too cautious", including yourself.
Exactly...why risk it. There have been many days here in Wisconsin when I could have gone but didn't because there were clouds along the way with temperatures aloft below freezing. I have TKS but not FIKI and bailed on the flight every time. I have had some ice form very quick on descent in just a 500' layer and it was an alarming lesson.
I'm sorry for your loss. The quality of your content is really inspiring, please keep creating!!
That’s a striking footage ! You have been providing us with amazing footages!! Really appreciate your excellent work Jason. Thanks
I'm adding the yellow return to my no-go list. It makes sense. Lightening in the area is one of my personal "get down on the ground" factors. I'll just wait out the storm.
Rod Machado is the one who turned me onto Project Rough Rider and he has some great stuff out there on the color coded radar and what it really means.
Great WX info in this one. I love your content; I learn a couple things every single time.
Thanks for sharing this...It made me think back to a day (almost 10 years ago now) when I wish I had understood some of this better then I did. KSAC to KRHV in a C172, fortunately NORCAL was nice and never mentioned the heading and altitude deviations while they worked me through that crap. But having watched this, and knowing what I know now, I would not have made that trip... it was green on radar tending towards yellow, but not really...but yes, really... as I like to tell my students now...learn from my mistakes.
For sure. We have to try and learn from each other's mistakes. Once you feel that "I'd rather be on the ground" feeling for real, it's a permanent decision making game changer.
I worked a 172 IFR training accident in FL where the pilots were lured into a sucker hole by controllers. As I remember, they spent two minutes fighting to keep the airplane upright and came out of the bottom at 800' AGL. I worked for Cessna and talked to the CFI. He scolded me for how poorly we built the airplane, given the fact that the right door popped off and hit the horizontal stab!! He called me back some time later and apologized for his statements. I dont think many single-engine airplanes could have survived that ride.
Thanks for this video. As a 38 year airline pilot recently coming back to GA (C182), I am very interested in the subject of personal minimums. The 2 you outlined here line up pretty well with what I’ve come up with so far. Interested in your other 2 no-go’s.
Hi Tom, I just stumbled upon your comment and wanted to suggest some ideas for minimums from the ones I incorporated when I instructed on light pistons, do with them as you will:
600-2 (ceiling - vis) for single engine IFR - not just for the airports of intended use but for the entire route of flight. the fact that the flight is IFR with LPV and ILS all around doesn't mean my engine won't quit on me enroute. In most light ASEL at Vg it gives approximately 2 minutes to ground impact - which is hopefully enough to find a place to land.
Runway length - at least takeoff over 50' plus landing over 50' - same reason - enough runway to start TO run, rotate, lose an engine somewhere until 50' and bring it back to the runway for a full stop. I used that for light twins for the same reason.
Wind speeds for TO/Landing:
X-Wind compt.: No more than max demonstrated.
Max sustained surface wind speed: no more than half Vs
Max total wind increment (half sustained plus the whole gust factor) no more than 20kts - the reason is a combination between controllability and the speed potentially fluctuating from Vref to Vfe. If conditions call for a larger increment I consider the airport unusable.
Of course no WS reported or forecast. No active showers currently in the vicinity.
No flying in icing conditions at all - if ATC doesn't cooperate with avoidance clearances it's grounds for PAN-PAN.
Just my 2 cents. Safe flying.
Etai Charit , thanks, good stuff!
Great presentation. Thanks
I think the best point made is also one he seems to ignore - the importance of local weather stations with local knowledge. Even in times of heavy precipitation, much of Coastal California doesn't see thunderstorm activity and sees little turbulence in the clouds. That seems to be why SHRA and rain forecasts rarely get turned into thunderstorm forecasts, let alone actual thunderstorms. Often, these showers are in clouds with tops as low as 100-110, which is obviously a safer potential scenario than CBs reaching FL410. I realize this is a fairly localized weather phenomenon, but also one that was the subject here in this video.
Icing is a whole different story. I'm happy to be a California ice chicken who is thinking about Plans B and C when it is even +2 in dry clouds. My issue is with the one consistent beef I have with our otherwise stellar ATC - there needs to be flexibility in these scenarios for altitude and routing, especially where MVA is an issue.
Ya, here on the Central Coast we’ve had a few sigmets lately for t-storms around SBA/SBP but it’s pretty rare.
An interesting number to figure out (and I think it's contained in Project Rough Rider, if you want to search it) would be what vertical wind velocities are required to hold up the amount of water that would produce a yellow radar return. I can't remember off hand, but I believe it was 30-50 feet per second and for sure that it is potentially aircraft damaging. So even if the yellow return does not "turn into" a thunderstorm it might still have enough force to damage your airplane. It might also be in a transition to something more extreme (that still does not become a thunderstorm). That was Scott's point when he jokingly said, "what's a thunderstorm the moment before lightning strikes?" He might just as well have said, "what do you call a thunderstorm right before it becomes a thunderstorm but never takes that final leap?" It's "just" a rain shower. A very scary, potentially aircraft damaging rain shower. Scott was saying the sometimes meteorologists include that in the disseminated information as a kind of "shot across the bow" (moderate rain showers distant to the southeast, for example.)
In the video, he notes that the danger would be from the turbulence caused. When you don't have hail or turbulence, the idea that water alone could be damaging seems pretty thin.
@@N1120A interesting topic and discussion here! The point isn't that water would be damaging. There's gravity, water has weight, and there has to be an opposing force (vertical wind inside the cloud) to keep these water molecules from dropping to form a yellow return (or greater), which would be your turbulence and I believe Jason's point referencing the article. 30 ft/s is around 1800 ft/min sort of updraft. If we are looking at radar returns, we are not seeing turbulence but precipitation. How can we then use what tools we have to possibly see turbulence in rain showers then? By their return signatures, green, yellow, red, etc., and I believe that was the intended point and word of caution by Scott. If you have no in-flight radar services, maybe take that rain shower designation with some serious thought and caution as well.
I fly a helicopter VFR and still find this is a great, really useful channel! Thanks!
Great topic...fellow RUclipsr Jerry Wagner flew through what he knew was the top of a cloud with Ice...10 seconds in and out the other side with ice all over everything...so fast! I will never forget that.
Be careful with relying on his videos. He's become a running joke in several aviation circles for doing illegal things in now-deleted videos, like continuing approaches below minimums without the runway in sight with a full scale deflection of the glide slope, and there are FAA inspectors who are aware of his actions.
Great stuff!
But dude, ask him to get a drink of something. LOL
I had to keep stopping for a drink myself.
Awesome video and great info!
That's one reason I like the Sport Pilot License, you don't have to worry about flying in IFR conditions.
Been in yellow and don’t want to go do it again. Most important in go/no go for me is, can I circumnavigate the yellow or worse? I once deviated around a large thunderstorm from 150 miles away. The controller didn’t cover that area and I had to tell him that there were storms at my 12:00.
Daniel Low I have also gone through yellow in my Cherokee and at one point I couldn’t hear the engine or radios over the incredible sound of the rain on the windshield and watching the sheer amount of water washing over the wings and falling off the trailing edge was incredible. I do my best to stay away from that now but it was a great experience and I never enter Imc above maneuvering speed.
I think we don't really realize just how close we get in weather and how far away we should stay from it.
Another excellent video. Thank you for the unique information presented
Scott is an excellent resource (as are you). Thanks for sharing.
Really interesting. Lightning depends on other conditions, its not as simple as greater precip/turbulence= Lightning. Just to take an extreme example, many tropical storms and hurricanes contain little or no lightning, you still aren't going to fly in it!
Few years ago a paragliding competition got cancelled due to weather and pilots left the take off spot. One pilot decided to fly straight down to the landing spot. The pilot got picked up in a thunderstorm in early stages of development, ending up at FL 210 , ( yes 21000 feet) the collapsed paraglide rapped around, freezing was very eminent, with the emergency reserve para out. After more than 30 minutes the storm “rejected ” the nearly frozen pilot and he landed in a field. All that was recorded on his flight computer..... just a example of the strength of nature’s elements!!!
Similar minimums for me. Being in the Midwest, I will consider going in the clouds if the temperatures are below freezing, but only under very, very specific circumstances. There cannot be any icing PIREPs, the clouds must be above the minimum IFR altitude, and if I'm going through them to get on top, I must either have numerous recent tops reports or be able to see through the clouds (e.g. a broken layer). Basically, there cannot be any known icing (per the regs) and I must have a guaranteed way out if there ends up being icing or I won't even think about it. Most days do not meet my strict requirements but there are some days, like if there's a 500 foot thick stratus layer, that I'll consider.
I imagine I'd have some similar rules if I were flying there year round. Sounds solid to me.
@@TheFinerPoints a serious question, how is it possible for there not to be icing in clouds below zero? Or is it when the air is so cold it's not water but ice particles (already frozen)?
Green takes the dirt off, yellow takes the paint off, red takes the wings off.
You're sure correct on flying in the Great Lakes; esp. Spring anf Fall. After a cold frontal passage, sometimes you get these "dirty Highs" w/fast developing CUs midday. Surface temps around 50 w/strong lapse rates; virga everywhere and breezy. By afternoon, wx radar looks like a pizza!
Oh, I remember well ... at least from the ground. I always tell my CA students, "y'all don't really know about weather" hahahaha
Excellent Video- really enjoyed the thorough explanation.
Yesterday I was able to fly from noon to 2:00 just before the TAF at salt lake indicated showers in the vicinity starting around 3:00 and it was a rough time. I don’t usually suffer from motion sickness, but I was feeling pretty rough about an hour in to my 2 hour flight. I also spent much of the flight with reduced power settings to get closer to maneuvering speed because it felt too bumpy to be at normal 182 cruise speeds.
I can definitely see why you would avoid stronger convective activity in the area when filing IFR.
This was super helpful. What about clouds in temperatures significantly less than zero, say -15 or -20? My understanding is that Ice forms rapidly either side of zero but is less prevalent 15 degrees over or under.
Great info, thanks for continuing to promote safe flying!
Thank you sir for posting this reminder.
Excellent episode. Just wondering if you're willing to share your other 2 no-goes?
- surface winds beyond 25kts (in my local area) and
- rather detailed takeoff minimums (pretty much matching Part 135 mins).
There is a video at Patreon that goes through all four of them in more detail. I'm trying to make sure I provide valuable content for free but there is also tons of content on Patreon.com/learntfp (over 180 videos) and that support is very helpful (especially in these times of no flying).
Thanks for the content Jason.
Cheers from Australia
I am a new pilot and a late starter. I am 58 years old (totally pissed that I didn't start years ago) I passed my check ride back in December and I am at about 300 hours. Recently I have made a couple of VFR flights in 100% overcast 2000 ft above my flight level. I have always flown around, never through, light green and green cells. I based my decision to continue on the overall viability. The visibility was greater than 50 miles so it was easy to see the rain and compare it to the Ipad. Given the potential for lightning and a change yellow...l Am I making a mistake? The overcast and inability to see the tops is what makes me nervous.
Another great video
These are great learning tools 🇨🇦
Hi Jason, I so agree with the Hoover comment of staying within your and planes limits at all times. I fly IFR in New Zealand and as we are surrounded with water, the icing issue dwindles away somewhat. If ice is encountered we can often get down to MSA and across to over the sea aided with GPS and ATC with own terrain eventually. I often wonder how you manage in the US continent without these escape routes, but guess you would approach to land at nearest IFR runway. NZ doesn't have nexrad weather so we fly blind enroute with GA equipment. CB's are seldom as treacherous as the US and a few times when caught IFR have slowed up, descended where possible for less turbulence. My wife said when caught in one a few weeks ago IFR (not forecast) ; is that one of those big clouds you keep saying "you never want to fly into one of those". Your videos are great I love em, keep the good work up.
Thanks Peter, I'd love to get down there to fly someday!
You had some great points, but I think you missed one very critical thing. What is the overall weather trend? Looking at big picture is key to understanding what lies ahead. Yellow is okay, if it diminishing. Personal minimums also play into each persons decision, Private pilot vs. ATP. As a CFII in northern MN, I have teach about IFR flying in below freezing conditions half the year. Biggest thing is to have escapes. My rule is minimum TWO guaranteed outs. Ice equip is only 1 out! I am always looking a big picture. Why will I be in ice, how long, what are tops, bottoms, etc... Bottom line, always have at least two ways out! The icing probability and severity analysis charts on the imagery section in Foreflight are great tools that I have found to be overall trustworthy.
Fantastic, important and interesting video. Thanks for sharing it!
Great stuff!! 5 Stars!
Excellent job. I love this conversation.
Thanks! The full version is up at Patreon.com/leartfp if you're interested in that
Wow! That was some great weather stuff.
Could you share the link to that Rough Riders project results? I'd be interesting to read more about that!
I would check out Rod Machado. He has a course on color coded radar and is the one who turned me on to Project Rough Rider, I bet there is good stuff there. Rodmachado.com
@@TheFinerPoints will do, thanks!
I have flown through a yellow "rain shower" Rocked my world and I will never, never do that again. I consider the yellow edge of the radar return as my marker to stay at least 10 miles away.
If I used the freezing level rule you use, I would not be able to fly 4 months of the year in the northeast. There are ways to fly IFR in the northeast in the weather with a pretty good degree of safety. It does require a more refined knowledge of meteorology and having a plan B and plan C if the excrement hits the ventilator.
I flew for 20 years from Missouri and the freezing level was an important data point but not in and if itself a nogo item. The issue for me is the question: is there available airspace below that is above freezing? That becomes the “out”.
Daniel Low your thinking sounds like mine. Preps also help a lot. Flying in cold air with snow is not a big deal, although I lost comm a couple of times due to precipitation static. Flying in cold with supercooled precip is another thing entirely. To me it was never a simple go/no-go based on temperature alone. It was much more nuanced.
Good stuff. Sent to my pvt student son.
I'm not instrumented rated but when I get there I'll stick with your personal minimums. I flew a long VFR cross country in intermittent light rain (it doesn't sound light) and a fairly high overcast. That was back in the late 80's when we didn't know what we didn't know. Ie. We didn't have ForeFlight to show us enroute weather that is 15m or so old. I fully understand that we should always keep in mind that the weather we see on the screen isn't what's there now but dang... that's some Buck Rogers stuff going on right there lol It's a good time to be a pilot
Yes! ForeFlight is truly a game changer. It's been just amazing to see that happen right before my very eyes.
good stuff
Thank you :-)
You can have showers in stratus clouds. Calm wx
Just curious, what makes someone a professional CFI?
Jacob Parsons haha yeah, bad choice of words there. Still meaning to change that ... what I meant to say was “career” maybe. It’s my only job and it’s how I support my family. Not planning to do anything else. What word do you think best says that?
@@TheFinerPoints Full time?
The Finer Points, I believe that professional is the correct term. You clearly demonstrate a strict and standardized method of education and training that adheres to accepted practice and regulations.
The Finer Points I would just leave it as full time CFI. Full time implies both, that it’s your career and the primary way you support your family.
NeedALift766 I would argue all CFIs who do their jobs properly and maintain the FAA’s standards are professional.
C'mon Jason, what are the other two??
I really wish I could see the benefits of IFR. I feel like there is a very slim window between IFR and Dangerous IFR. The majority of tragic accidents seem to happen in or around the clouds. Everyone says if you have you IFR certificate then you will be a safer pilot but I feel like VFR pilots are way better off not getting into these situations in the first place.
Where is the ice? In the clouds.
Where are the thunderstorms? In the clouds.
Where is it always turbulent? In the clouds.
Where do you experience spacial disorientation? In the clouds.
Where has the majority of structural damage due to overloaded surfaces occurred? In the clouds.
If you look at these facts it is far safer not being an IFR pilot and introducing all of these scenarios than just flying around the storm in VFR. If you can't get around it set down wait an hour or two for the storm to pass then take back off. How hard is that.
Why take something that isn't that difficult and is a ton of fun then make it horrible and not fun at all. Unless your are someone who has to fly everyday or for your job don't bother.
Better to be late than dead on time!
This pair of no go items is really just the privilege of your location. The flip side of that is the incredible lack of competence you can find in your part of the world when it rains and people try to drive, or a CFII is asked to operate a helicopter in marginal weather. There are lots of people flying light airplanes to pay the bills who would have a hard time following your rules and keeping a job.
I have similar personal inviolable minimums.
Yellow equals increased risk. Risk assessment requires balancing risk reward benefit. So filing into yellow is a poor preflight risk assessment. On the ground we can solve most problems because we are not committed. Inflight avoid yellow, if necessary leave yourself an out. Yellow combined with RED is really asking for trouble. Great video applauded.
The met guy was way out of the normal pilot's ability to even understand. Of course, it depends on the aircraft so light singles would take and an extra layer of precaution. I've been a CFI-ii-mei ATP and chief flight instructor for an airline. If you are flying the line you are in different aircraft and at a more professional level. I did not like the met guy because he's more met than pilot. Under your rules, you're right since you seem to have limited time flying IFR. Of course, you don't fly into thunderstorms, unless you're flying around them and get caught in an embedded storm, as when flying routes daily in Florida.
Good info, and a good source, but I would rather read a transcript. Guy sounded like he was eating and sucking on his teeth and lips the entire time. Right into the mic, so right into my ear. God that shit is beyond irritating. It tends to make things unlistenable.