Will there be a Reform UK and Conservative coalition? | The New Statesman podcast
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- Опубликовано: 11 июн 2024
- How much of a risk is there that the Tory Party will shift right, or Nigel Farage will join the Conservatives?
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Hannah Barnes, Freddie Hayward and Rachel Cunliffe answer a listener's question.
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A shiver just went down my spine when I read the thumbnail...
Same here!
And here! @@JAMamation
No one will join with the tories. Clegg made that mistake.
Clegg joined Tories because they won a majority in England . Going with Scot Brown would have brought the unanswered west Lothian question front and centre
@@keithyoung810 yes, unfortunately, Clegg went back on his word to the people on university tuitions charging. The people would have respected him more if he had held is ground against Cameron on that issue, even it meant a rerun on the election. Once Cameron shot himself in the foot and changes in the Conservatives, Clegg ran away to the root of all Evil, USA. leaving the Liberal Democrats to start all over again.
The Tories didn't get enough seats, they had to go in with the Libdems, the Tories poison any
relationship, mad dog syndrome, anybody who gets near to them goes mad.
@@keithyoung810 well Clegg bottled it.
@@user-jc4lb5mm7x
Let's be honest, the Lib Dems thought it would be a power sharing agreement and the (only realistic) chance of introducing some of the policies that neither Labour or the Tories would be likely to.
The Tories on the other hand, being the larger party in parliament, and well... Being Tories... Pretty much treated the Lib Dems as the tea boy.
Is your sound guy playing around with the echo ? ?
This is what you get when you let children play with the tech - awful sound - but worse (stupid) analysis. The Tories are toast - thank goodness.
I think it's an inevitability, unfortunately - the Tories are desperate to stay in power and will do pretty much anything to stay relevant (except look after ordinary people). It's depressing that such a coalition would have been unthinkable ten years ago though - and shows how far they've fallen...
The country needs a change if the tories are re elected god help us if were not millionairs,goog by nhs life as we know it will be taken back to victorian times people dying of health probs,walking round with rotten teath eating scraps working for £2 hr living in tents that how i see it
The Tories spent billions helping people during the pandemic with furlough. They spent billions bailing out people's energy bills. And the NHS today is getting more money, as a percentage of our GDP, than at any time in history. The Tories deserve to lose the next election. But this whole idea that the Tories have done nothing to help ordinary people is clearly not true and supporters of Labour are in for a nasty shock if they think Labour are going to suddenly be helping ordinary people more. The problem is we have an ageing society and not enough growth. Maybe Labour can somehow change the growth situation over time but an incoming Labour govt isn't going to be able to do much more than the Tories in terms of spending from day 1.
Then we can all emigrate
Or how far right they've moved with the financial backing of plutocrats ( plus their ownership of the media) .
The same forces have been active in the US . Over the last 50 + years the Heritage Foundation, Brookings Institute, Cato Institute et al have been playing the long game and taking control of the US - they even write statutes and simply hand them to their puppet Senators who guide the legislation through the Senate.
It's a well known fact that Farridge has close links to Steve Bannon. The latter has been instrumental, along with the plutocrats' so called ' think tanks' in moving the Republican party even further to the right. He's advising Farridge to play the long game as well.
There was a time when the Tory propaganda was that they're the pragmatic, non- ideological party. One that can appeal to the average voter who would fall for such nonsense.
That was all completely ditched by Johnson and he's cleared the pitch for a post GE Reform takeover.
Phase issues with the sound?
Quite odd.
Yes
What will they be called? The toilet party?
Not the government, maybe not even the opposition.
Conform Party?
There is already a toilet party...called the Labour Party.... Crap Party...C is already in Conservative...
@@johnnzboy Genius.
The New Cons
Given that Reform are unlikely to win any seats, I think their influence will be muted. A coalition or electoral pact might well divide the Tories even further. It would certainly be disastrous for this country.
What a nightmare that would be 🤢
Rather presumptious, to assume either Conservatives or Reform will have enough MPs to form a coalition.
No.
Reform will likely win 0 seats, possibly 1, due to their support being very evenly spread throughout the country. The Tories might not win all that many more than that.
Reform don't have anything to gain from entering into an electoral pact with the Tories, and plenty to lose.
Yes but if they pull the same sort of trick as the Brexit party did and what UKIP were accused of and only put up candidates in areas that Reform might help the Tories...
For all their criticism of the Tories, Tice has repeatedly said he thinks a Labour government would be a disaster.
So, is he merely pre-empting another unofficial assist?
Or are they just attempting to build their strength up in this one, only to form an alliance when the Tories inevitably depose Sunak and pick another nutter?
@@pauln6803 The Labour government will be a disaster for the Labour Party....
Completely agree. I don’t think Reform will even exist in a few years time. They don’t have any party infrastructure, no proper vetting procedures, very few campaigners and no credible people. All their campaigning is on TTV and GBN so they have little reach, and when faced in serious debate their clown show “policies” are torn apart. They will only ever have niche appeal and actually I think they will get bored of losing all the time and eventually just fade away.
NO.
What's wrong with the microphone I can hear a clear echo sometimes?
it is caused by the audio mixer not muting the microphone of those not speaking. You will hear it if the speaking voice is loud enough or directed at another microphone whilst that other microphone is not muted. The audio mix on this channel is inconsistent. This is one of the videos where you can hear it the most.
It can happen when there is just one microphone too, when there is not sufficient damping in the room.
I think they've accidentally mixed in the audio from some of the cameras.
Or it's bleed between the microphones. Possibly they're relying on noise gates, when they might be better off with some sort of gain-sharing auto-mixer.
There is no conservative party anymore
Yes ! Wonderful isn't it ??
@@brianferguson7840yes it is 👍🏻
That's the best news that I have heard today.
anyone that votes conservative is a traitor to the country
The Conservative Party was the party of R Peel it replaced the Tories now the Tory Party has returned, or it has de-evolved into a more primitive form. There are a few conservatives left.
Funny how 3 months every pundit sniggered and said Reform wouldn’t win a single seat
it makes no difference when labour are gonna win easily
Reform will influence the upcoming election by splitting the right vote, however, I think Rachel has a point about Refom's influence going forwards;
The Tories and Reform will either have to form one party, or a political pact otherwise they will continue to split the right vote. The whole point of FPTP and the way constituencies are drawn is so the single right wing party wins more elections with a 30-40% of the popular vote. The centre and left have always found it hard to solidify votes because there are a number of parties. The right will only ever have any real influence if we were to switch to PA, which Reform knows, so that's why they're in favour of it. Reform will talk the Conservatives around on switching to Proportional Representation
I doubt it. UK voters are a bit right of centre but Reform are using the same policies as the BNP from 14 years ago. The Tories have completely lost the trust of the electorate. It’s not a compelling argument that UK voters will want a combination of proven liars and far right outliers promising PR.
PR is an inevitability. There is almost universal support for it bar the very oldest voters and that support is across the political spectrum. Such will be the scale of the Conservative defeat they will also support it as their only way of getting back some influence. Labour will be pretty much forced to run it in their manifesto too or risk leaking seats in every direction. Labour actually benefits from PR, and the country will too as voter participation will sky rocket.
@@andrewwrench1959 Labour will be the biggest losers as they'll go from holding a huge majority to being part of a coalition
there might be a coalition between the tories and reform after the election but they would still need to find the other 311 seats for a majority
Only way I could see a deal would be if conservatives pledged to leave the ECHR & even then it’s unlikely due to right wingers not believing the Conservative party would actually go through with it
The solution to the tory dog’s dinner is reasonably straightforward: (1) take the hit and prepare for at least 5 y out of government, (2) get the fruit loops like Truss, Cruella, ReesSmugg, etc to leave (to Reform or similar saddos party), (3) promote a new and varied selection of capable and ‘one-nation’ tories to the top jobs, and (4) rediscover the core principles that combined capitalism with efficiency and fairness.
They won’t do this because they're dim and so very desperate to keep power - which is a good thing for the nation, as it will maximize their wilderness years.
The change in candidate selection process let the riffraff in and Johhnson booted out the last of the traditional Tories. Now its full of selfish people who don't give a monkeys for anyone else and lie through their teeth.
They won't have nearly enough votes between them to form an effective opposition.😅
Exactly 😂
Reform will struggle to get one or two MP’s, the Green Party have more impact. The Lib Dem’s have not recovered from their previous coalition. Labour will walk it.
Only when the Conservative party become Conservative again !
They're pretty much the BNP now.
@@faithpearlgenied-a5517Reform has the same policies as the BNP from 14 years ago. The Tories are chasing that vote. However, it only has a reach of 20-30%. British people are a bit centre right but the voters don’t like fascists, never have and never will.
This would be a dream team that could actually keep Britain British.
Hopefully people will realise that would just be the Tories again. Theyd be pretty stupid not to realise it. But then
"Farage was there as" a perpetual grifter.
No
Only if the PM was not the the leader of the Conservative party
The sound of this posting is as good as any other British product made in these islands.
I've seen this team-up in my nightmares for a few weeks now , and I'm not comforted by that fact I'm now not the only one. I'm continually surprised by how much stock professional political pundits place in the polls, given their glaring inaccuracies in recent years, particularly in measuring the voting intentions of white working-class voters that are attracted to nationalistic/ xenophobic politics. If the Labour vote underperforms in a general election (as it has done so many times before) and the Tory vote is low but not annihilating a smattering of Reform gains in Red Wall seats could ...I won't finish the sentence it's too horrific to look at.
At the election the Tory seats added to the Reform seats will be nowhere near as many as Labour.
Wonderful how Brexit has ultimately torn the Conservative Party to shreds.
They tore themselves apart by not implementing the total seperation which should have automatically followed Brexit if the conservative party had not been corrupt as hell !
@@yvettethornton4629 I need to know how Brexit has not been fully implemented. Last I heard we can't freely travel in the EU, have duties slapped on our goods, have to queue at passport control in the non-EU line and we're subject to the 90-day residency rule. But I know this - if the Tories had kept the UK in the EU and Boris Johnson/Liz Truss had never been Prime Minister, then the Tories would NOT be facing electoral wipeout in the 2024 General Election.
That’s what happened in Canada a couple of decades ago. The Reform Party merged with the Progressive Conservatives to become the current Conservative Party of Canada. And they took a massive rightward, lurch at the same time.
Ill be voting reform
If we zoom out a bit, we've really seen an erosion of the centre -right in recent years, support has shifted over further to the right as many voters consider the Tories not right wing enough!
Can you imagine the hilarious results with so many clowns, so little effort aren’t and huge egos 😂😂
This would blast reform into dust.
Most of their voters are pissed off ex tories.
There may be a coalition, but it won't stop the Labour steamroller. After 14 years of the Tory circus the people have had enough. And in any case the coalition can't/won't last. If there's one thing that characterises extremists it's their inability to discipline themselves in pursuit of a common objective because their objective is always to push their extreme views.
😂😂😂😂😂xtreme ..
@@emmastyles6936
Your mum's going to be mad when she finds you've hacked her phone.
@@pauln6803 ????
Well, many months back I put a series of bets on at 80:1 for a ReformUK+ Tory Coalition. I figured this chance was more significant than the bookies thought, I saw spread. The odds aren't 80:1 now 😂
Tice will dismiss this of course, but if after the election there is a Hung Parliament and the Tories + Reform can stop Labour getting in then they will.
If you think the Tories and reform together will get enough seats to form a coalition government I think you're delusional!
Reform will stand down in certain seats.
7:50 didn't Starmer say he would introduce Proportional Representation? If they win a landslide then I bet that snake Starmer 'forgets'...😂
No.
The Independent - Keir Starmer was against proportional representation all along - what else hasn’t he told us?
The Labour leader says he wants growth rather than higher taxes - but all politicians say that
John Rentoul
Saturday 29 April 2023 17:29 BST
@@FontaineDerby haha he's such a snake. Labour Conference voted for PR.
PR will give tice a voice. Stick with first past post. Give votes to 16yr old, state funding to prevent all the corruption of buying influence, and finally, like in Australia make voting compulsory. Allow people to vote 'non of the above ' but must vote.
@@michaelclifford6468 I'd like the system to be fairer and better represent the people. Not what I think would suit my politics, but I guess that's the difference between me and Starmer and you.
@michaelclifford6468 As part of the Lib Dems promise to remain in coalition, they forced the holding of a referendum on an alternative voting system.
In the UK in 2011, a referendum was held to consider whether to replace the present "first-past-the-post" system with the "alternative vote" (AV) method and was the first national referendum to be held across the whole of the United Kingdom in the twenty-first century. The proposal to introduce AV was rejected by 67.9% of voters on a national turnout of 42%.
PR just allows small marginalised parties to become kingmakers in unstable coalition governments and exercise power beyond their representation.
No. Next question.
God forbid...
ReCon?
The very thing the people must prevent and make sure that the Reform party has a big win otherwise things would be no different
The huge benefit of PR is it will make it near impossible for conservative and right wing parties to get into government. We have only seen the dominance of the Tory party because FPTP massively favours them. Labour tended to win hugely in their heartland while the Cons would win be smaller majorities in more constituencies and end up with more seats. And 3rd parties need many times more votes per seat than either of the two main parties. Labour supported PR in their conference but Starmer vetoed it. This will I think change and future elections will be based on PR and with voting from 16+ and by people living in the UK who are not citizens. Also making it harder for long term ex-pats to vote will help keep Tories out of government in the future.
Sort your sound out - several mics cross interfering
No, they wouldn’t. Those in are from hate Sunak and will not work with him, which is why some Tories want Sunak out before the election.
Audio engineer needs to shield each person's mic, you can hear speakers twice through each others microphones leading to apparent phase issues
Or a Galloway/Labour one?
No way 100%
"No"
No and even if there is many Tory voters and MP s will not support it , plus only 35^l% of reform voters a would vote Tory ,
Everything is possible, depending on the local election results and the Blackpool by-election. We need to wait for the outcome of these.
Wait*
@@HShango Yes, of course. I was writing too hastily and didn't spot the typo.
It is very possible that there will be a coop government as none will get the majority they hope for. The sad fact is, there can be only disappointment in the result, because they are all the same. They may be painted red, blue or green, but they will all have their axe to grind and interfere to get it. You have star players who will be elbowing their way for position, but the state of British politics is rancid, and the bun fight to establish a foot in number 10 is going to be forced smiles with an undercurrent of vindictive back stabbing. None will be looking to the general public to offer anything but a mirage of promises, only on sale for one day, because they vanish when votes are gathered, and votes are the only requirement of the politician, for which they see no reason to give anything in return.
audio of lady talking at 4.30 is echoey
Well, they’re two ends of the same t..d, so..
Close House of Lords. First. Tim had better be true in sprit. And honest do as he says. My postal vote is yours. Do not let British Down If you get voted in.
fix your mics dudes... wow!
double and even triple microsecond delay echos on all three mics... turn the sensitivity down or maybe get one omnidirectional mic on the table maybe?
prob an interesting talk but i can't get over the urge to speed up all the echos to match the main voice, and when 2 talk at once i can hear 3 echos for each voice...
which is very distracting!
Even the Americans think the British Conservative Party as being a Socialist party..🇺🇲🇺🇲
I can't see, but if that happened bitter +bitter =bitter√2😂😂😂😂
Reform reform reform
Okay you made this before the results but the local elections suggest that reform won't be making significant ground in the general one. I wish they did tho, puts the Tories in check, shows what the population want. Reformed is just picking up the work the Tories dropped - fix migration, policing, civil liberties
If there globalists then no
If I believe this then Reform won’t get my vote
Why would any sane, rational person vote for the Reform Party Ltd anyway?
You honestly think Reform are anything other than failed Tories?
Farage, Tice and Habib all subscribe to the same "Britannia Unchained" (low tax/low regulation) ideas as Liz Truss and her followers.
And look how that turned out...
@ColinBarrett001 why would any sane person vote for the same old main parties and think things will get better they never have just look at the past history.
@@kennethmaley2443so instead vote for the Conservative Party but worse that’s what reform party is it’s nothing new just a party with a new name same ideas and new worse ideas
The reform party is a flash in the pan movement. They don’t have policies to entice in younger voters nor voters who don’t normally turn out at elections (but don’t necessarily shun them as a matter of routine either). Rabid right wing politics isn’t something that garners long-term political interest as it requires a lot of energy for a lot of hatred and it burns itself out.
Why would the right wing Tory voters align with the Tory party that is not far enough right wing?
If there will then UK is down the drain, possibly permanently if not already the damage done is not reversable.
Vote SDP :)
Who was doing the audio here? Yikes
Yes they will have a pact. They are desperate.
The clue is in the name. The Tories won't ditch FPTP. So no.
Why is there an echo in the sound on this?
There is already a broad coalition its called parliament , aint no diff who you vote .
6:44 😂 Tories can never commit to nationalism or culture, they are far too individualist
Even if the Tories performed a minor miracle and ended up as the biggest party but short of a majority, the opposition parties would 💯 gang up and form a Rainbow alliance to keep them out.
What makes people think a RIGHTWING Tory party joining a FAR RIGHT tory party would make it better for us ordinary folk,?
Same arse , different cheek
I yhink the tories are scared of Nigel Farage
Aaaah, the Conform UK (Limited) party to come. Not authoritarian at all ;-) !
I don’t see a deal between reform and the Tories.that would be the end for reform no one would trust them ever again 😊
Nightmare scenario but pigs might fly. 😊
It will be called the CONFORM party - which seems rather appropriate.
There will be no coalition as reform will not win a seat😂
It’s a disgrace
There will not be a joining of the 2 reform UK agreed to step back last time in some areas then got screwed why arnt you talking about that
No, the brexit party stood down candidates in Tory seats and Farage refused to reimburse those who'd put up their own money to stand.
It wasn't the Tories that screwed those poor bastards, it was Farage and the others behind the Brexit party.
UKIP were accused of similar tactics to help Cameron against Corbyn when Farage was leader of UKIP.
Notice a pattern...?
If that happens we would have the most right wing government ever
No!
Forget the pontificating and waffle.
There is so much that England needs to reform. Their French-like superior attitude, the district electoral system, the overcrowded parliament building, the occupation of other areas and countries, ...
Greetings from Arnhem.
Let face it the Tories have formed many coalitions to stay in power. Lib Dems, DWP. So yes they would form one. But not with reform 😅
Vote reform
I think not!
Yes I will vote ❎ Reform UK
You might not realise but your Reform flag waving only hurts Conservative and bolsters opposition? Which is absolutely fantastic!
@@JohnHollyoak-vx6pn you are a traitor
Why?
Reform UK is nothing but a bunch of failed Tories, sharing the same ideology as the right wing of the Tory party.
Nothing to be had there for the common working folk.
I think the boycott of Tory/Labour is a good thing, I will be voting ReformUK, the prospect of EITHER Tory/Labour makes me feel quite ill.
NO PARTY IN ENGLAND IS WORTH THE EFFORT FAR TOO CORRUPT!!
Labour Adler over the tories why do people look at the Labour Party as the same one that left in 2005 every body knows labour is a new party
God just hell on earth, even for me and I’m right wing
2 extremist parties together. As if it isn't bad enough now.
Horrible echo on this video
What an inarticulate bunch
Will Lee Anderson hold his seat?
I’ve just had a look at the electoral history in Ashfield. I think the most likely outcome is for Labour to win the seat back.
When Anderson won in 2019, he actually received fewer votes and percentage than the previous Conservative candidate in 2015, with the Brexit Party getting around 5%. Even if you combined Conservative and Brexit Party voters from 2019, it only adds up to fewer than 22k votes. Historically that may have been enough to win in Ashfield, but there are specific circumstances which are against Anderson. 1) Anderson’s abrasive style gains him a lot of recognition, but could repel as many voters as it attracts. He is better known than in 2019, but it could be for the wrong reasons. 2) Centrists who were put off Corbyn’s Labour may return to Starmer’s. Labour’s national vote share looks like it will increase dramatically. 3) Independent candidate Jason Zadrozny seems to have benefited the most from Labour’s poor showing in 2019, he is standing again, but legal difficulties could harm his chances, pushing voters back towards Labour. 4) The Conservatives will likely stand their own candidate and most of the voters they attract will be those who voted Conservative in 2019. 5) Before Anderson was elected, Ashfield had returned Labour MPs for its entire history apart from a very close by-election in 1977.
@@lordhenrywotton95 Thanks - useful.
I think he'll lose his seat to Labour considering:
A) He managed to win in 2019 because the Labour vote swang to an independent candidate.
B) Ashfield has typically been a Labour seat for most of it's history otherwise, outside of Anderson it's only been held by the Tories for 2 years in the 1970s
It is possible (before the GE) as the Cons have not yet binned brexit and many of the party members still hope it might work.
A couple of losers? Doesn’t matter if they do. Maybe more Conservatives crossing the floor to the winners. Vote Labour.👍🏼✌🏼
Lets get one point straight sorry for being blunt immigration is not the cause of the ruined ecconomy and every other messed up things like housing,nhs egt dont spout on about covid and wars its bad government policies over a number of years from both main parties that have caused our decline,i cant wait for the general election bring it on
reform into fascism.
Tories out!
4:33 Reform are only standing in 12% of council seats.