Conversation with Yaneer on Covid with mild disagreements.

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  • Опубликовано: 6 сен 2024
  • Yaneer Bar Yam and Nassim Nicholas Taleb discuss the Covid situation, with some disagreements.

Комментарии • 105

  • @cantankerouspatriarch4981
    @cantankerouspatriarch4981 2 года назад +18

    Yaneer is living on another planet. His model is nothing like the reality here on earth. Taleb is struggling because he recognises the reality but is not willing to admit he was wrong about covid.

  • @Floodland-bn3ol
    @Floodland-bn3ol 2 года назад +8

    Would be great if Taleb debated Malone not just speak with someone he essentially agrees with.

  • @Senecamarcus
    @Senecamarcus 2 года назад +7

    Thank you for doing this video

  • @Harshacoach
    @Harshacoach 2 года назад +7

    Thank you, both! Always insightful. And I'm glad the air filters work with different types of wine : )

  • @albertotufaile
    @albertotufaile 2 года назад +1

    This discussion is amazing and I will share with other people.

  • @clydeboswell6052
    @clydeboswell6052 2 года назад +6

    Yaneer, you're simply regurgitating talking points about pediatric "long covid". You are simply giving a description of the possible effect without any explanation because I do not think you could do so.

    • @DanK123
      @DanK123 2 года назад

      What's your expertise? Are you a downplayer? Have you always been a covid downplayer? Do you want to infect everybody you know?

    • @DanK123
      @DanK123 2 года назад

      @@serkanmohammed7170 You must be PRO-COVID, Serkan.

    • @DanK123
      @DanK123 2 года назад

      @@serkanmohammed7170 Ok no prob Serkan. Go get the virus. Damage your heart, your brain and your immune system and give it to your family. No sweat off my back. It may or may not ruin their lives, but it'll be on you. Oh and stay away from hospitals, irresponsible Serkan.

  • @maximillianthomas3693
    @maximillianthomas3693 2 года назад +11

    Good video, and I mostly agree with everything. Couple things I think are wrong.
    1. There was no talk about this affecting kids
    2. Joe Rogan brings all kinds of people on. He brought on Malone, he also brought on Sanjay Gupta, Rhonda Patrick and more that are pro vaccine. He is not trying to spread misinformation, I'm sure he'd be happy to bring either of you on the show.

    • @deenzmartin6695
      @deenzmartin6695 2 года назад +6

      he'd definitely have nassim on but nassim would never want to.

    • @maximillianthomas3693
      @maximillianthomas3693 2 года назад +3

      @@deenzmartin6695 agreed, but who is that helping then? He could have the opportunity to change the minds of 11M people.

    • @DanK123
      @DanK123 2 года назад

      Oh please. Joe Rogaine ALIGNS with the downplayers and weirdos. He made a big deal of taking ivermectin because he thinks it works. He was (is he still?) UNVACCINATED. He's an idiot. He did just have Mike Osterholm on again, which is good, but he hasn't done that anywhere near enough. Sanjay Gupta is fine, but not an infectious disease/pandemic expert...and not really the kind of guy who can debate this kind of BS. It's just not his way. He's a nice guy and explainer, whereas Joe was all butt hurt about CNN and others making fun of him for ivermectin because called horse dewormer. Many people DID buy the livestock version by the way, so it wasn't pulled out of thin air.

    • @philippweisang
      @philippweisang 2 года назад

      @@serkanmohammed7170 As in "tragically funny"?

    • @wasdwasdedsf
      @wasdwasdedsf 8 месяцев назад

      @@maximillianthomas3693 he is terrified to show himself cause deep down he probably suspects he was an establishment puppet, being indoctrinated of all the wrong things during this whole charade

  • @4747da
    @4747da 2 года назад +23

    i agree with NNT on this one. you have to be practical. in a perfect world, every one who can, would get vaccinated, and everyone would get tested three times a week. it's not happening. people are tired, and undisciplined, and moreover, tragically, the fact that covid isn't a severe disease, make people nonchalant. and i don't see that changing. that's why you have to have policies that can be followed, not ideal scenarios that will breakdown immediately

    • @DanK123
      @DanK123 2 года назад

      Covid isn't a severe disease? Get outta here. Get lost.

    • @DanK123
      @DanK123 2 года назад

      @@serkanmohammed7170 Genetic therapy? How does a nutcase like you end up on a video like this? GO AWAY. Get a brain. Get therapy.

    • @DanK123
      @DanK123 2 года назад

      @@serkanmohammed7170 You need some genetic therapy on your brain buddy.

    • @wasdwasdedsf
      @wasdwasdedsf 8 месяцев назад

      in a perfect world everyone wwould get vaccinated with a rushed, untseted batch ofg chemicals resposnibel for a 400000% icnrease in vac adverse events in 2021?
      how are you people unironically real life?
      how much death and pain are you responsible for, the pseudointellectual clowns?

  • @rhysjeffery1630
    @rhysjeffery1630 2 года назад +4

    why does nassim always wear that sweater draped?

  • @WaelDAE
    @WaelDAE 2 года назад +4

    Yaneer is being very 'Greek' here, and does not appear to have learned from the past few years. He doesnt even appear to realise when he is making long points Nassim obviously agrees with.

  • @caustinolino3687
    @caustinolino3687 7 месяцев назад +1

    7:18 "20% is probably more severe long covid" - in Jan 2022, almost 2 years after the outbreak, did it really pass the smell test that 1 in 5 infections ended up with severe long covid, disabled from normal life?

  • @jimmyjam6197
    @jimmyjam6197 2 года назад +18

    10 year life expectancy drop per infection seems high to me. Would like to see the source of this

    • @dileepvr
      @dileepvr 2 года назад +1

      I don't think they are talking about a drop in life expectancy. They are talking about equivalent chance of bad symptoms or hospitalization. A healthy 60-year old has the same chance of hospitalization (given infection) as an unhealthy 50-year old.

    • @jimmyjam6197
      @jimmyjam6197 2 года назад +1

      @@dileepvr I was referencing 6:25

    • @solaristhesun
      @solaristhesun 2 года назад +22

      It's just ridicoulous and shows that this guy works based on false assumptions. The proposal of the filter thingy is another hint that this guy might even be a little bit crazy. He thinks this is a good idea lol. Meanwhile more and more countries are relaxing covid restrictions and are completely fine.

    • @SpindicateAudio
      @SpindicateAudio 2 года назад +6

      This guy's figures are completely out to lunch. The average life expectancy and the average age of death are almost identical, and so the average years of life lost per infection is almost zero.
      And immunity provides robust protection against severe outcomes. So life lost isn't at all additive across multiple infections.
      Turns out, your immune system is anti fragile

    • @MrFlapstick
      @MrFlapstick 2 года назад

      @@jimmyjam6197 yeah I heard the same thing, cumulative with each time 10 years???

  • @nischalshrestha375
    @nischalshrestha375 2 года назад +9

    Please start a podcast

    • @alexandrec.2920
      @alexandrec.2920 2 года назад

      We need a Taleb podcast how awesome would that be

  • @Joe_Robinson
    @Joe_Robinson 2 года назад +4

    Would be nice to see one of these with Joe Norman. Appreciate the three of you.

  • @SpeculatorSeth
    @SpeculatorSeth 2 года назад +11

    If we really want to have a real discussion here people have to start doing the unsavory math. How many years of life do certain measures save, and what are the economic and social costs of those measures? Saying that it's possible to eliminate covid completely ignores the costs of doing so. It's just the height of arrogance to say that destroying your business and ruining your children's development will be worth it when we're not willing to do the full analysis.

    • @brittanymarker4609
      @brittanymarker4609 2 года назад

      The way we’re existing with constant reinfections and not enough staffing for schools/daycares/businesses is no way to live either.

    • @trevormarquardt4025
      @trevormarquardt4025 2 года назад

      Despite the name, I don’t think this is a speculative take 😂 I 100% agree that economic and social costs, while foggy, are the real price we would pay (and are paying now)

    • @Achrononmaster
      @Achrononmaster 2 года назад

      It was theoretically possible to eliminate. But would require (a) a government that is willing to support workers with a Job Guarantee policy (which is possible: in a pandemic there is no end of work people can do for public purpose, the state just writes the cheques), and (b) a population willing to defer some consumption on non-essentials, to get general price level stable, with only critical supplies going up (which is a limited scope relative price adjustment, not inflation). (c) People have to understand supply shock inflation is not the same as wage demand inflaiton, in these sorts of circumstances -- wars, floods, drought, corruption, pandemics. All three of these conditions (a), (b), (c) are helluva tall order for any country to satisfy. But it was theoretically possible in a highly collectivist country with a trusted government. There are a few small nations that would qualify, but they were not thinking along these lines. So a lost potential natural experiment. Most failed at not seeing the Job Guarantee policy possibility, because they do not understand the basics of MMT. In New Zealand we had 80% wage subsidies. It could have been 100% plus employing previously unemployed who show up, but the worker has to volunteer to do some community service, e.g., with local councils or local non-profits, or firms running essential services.

    • @Achrononmaster
      @Achrononmaster 2 года назад

      I would add, _pragmatically_ elimination was a pipe dream. When I wrote "theoretically possible" I _meant_ theoretically.

    • @wasdwasdedsf
      @wasdwasdedsf 8 месяцев назад

      @@brittanymarker4609 uhm...
      1.worked with the cold didnt it?
      2. and how did this statement age for you? not even cnn says a word about it anymore or pretends its of any danger

  • @karimb.
    @karimb. 2 года назад +1

    I am a researcher in mortality forecasting. I am curious about your opinion on how to adapt mortality forecasting taking into account the pandemic ? Do you expect a flattening of life expectancy ?

  • @JakovRudi
    @JakovRudi 2 года назад +1

    Thank you for this conversation. Not just for the shear information, but the way you conduct conversation even in disagreement. (both are invited to squid ink risotto and wine :) )

  • @siverthansenhauan532
    @siverthansenhauan532 2 года назад +1

    Do you read/write in Russian? I heard you were proficient in multiple languages, and was curios as to how you learned so many.
    Greeting from Norway.

  • @ihave3heads
    @ihave3heads 2 года назад +3

    Just a point when talking about the fact that the cost of lockdowns are great. Total costs of lockdowns, though it matters for public perception, can be greater than the cost of COVID and yet still beneficial. People mistake total cost for marginal cost. At the optimal level of lockdown, marginal cost of lockdown=marginal benefit of lockdown=marginal reduction in cost of COVID. You can shift the lockdown cost curve up or down changing the total cost of lockdowns and it wouldn't change the marginal cost of lockdown. All that to say, I cringe when I hear people say "the cost of lockdowns are great" because that has no impact on optimal level of policy on its own.

    • @philippweisang
      @philippweisang 2 года назад +2

      I cringe at this attempt to apply Econ 101 to such a complex issue

    • @ihave3heads
      @ihave3heads 2 года назад

      @@philippweisang better to apply econ 101 than to apply no econ at all.

    • @Achrononmaster
      @Achrononmaster 2 года назад

      @@ihave3heads Also better to distinguish real costs from nominal costs. Lockdowns produce supply chain bottlenecks which eventually produce real output losses, and firm balance sheets deteriorate. But households do not have to lose too, income support can be given in the form of "pandemic bonds", with say some rolling maturity, so spending is deferred, so less price pressure, but temporarily unemployed workers do not suffer. Also a Job Guarantee MMT style is a suitable policy, there is no end of local community public purpose work people can do when transitioning through jobs during a pandemic. Overall the pandemic, like a major war, means households suffer a drop in standard of living, but there is no need at all for their income to drop, so a nominal loss does not have to accompany the real loss. What will people do with more income but less to spend upon? Save it. That's the purpose of a "war bond" or "pandemic bond."
      Caveat: I realise no government will think of this sort of policy, let alone vote on it. But the fact is, any currency-issuing governemtn can sustain full employment throughout a pandemic. They just write the cheques, local communities figure out the real work that can be done, and there is no end of it.

    • @DanK123
      @DanK123 2 года назад

      @@philippweisang They're just another douchebag assigning financial value to human lives - as long as it's not their own or their families. Everybody else is expendable for a few bucks.

    • @DanK123
      @DanK123 2 года назад

      @@serkanmohammed7170 Is YOUR family expendable for a few bucks?

  • @BrechtM
    @BrechtM 2 года назад +2

    Interesting discussion.
    An important point that is often missed (and that Taleb describes in his work) is that more/too much information increases the noise to signal ratio. For covid & all the talk about variants this is provided by attaching too much important on variants & genomic sequencing.
    Comparing omikron to delta for example, it has been recently shown that the secondary attack rate is about the same in unvaccinated people, hinting at no inherent increased transmissibility in omikron vs. delta. The SAR is lower for delta than omikron in vaccinated people, indicating (partial) immune evasion of omikron. (Or to put it in epidemiological terms - R = DxOxTxS - T(ransmissibility) does not increase but S(usceptibility) does.) The population's immune status (due to successful vaccination mainly) has changed so you're comparing apples to oranges when comparing different variants.
    If we had genomic sequencing during the rise of polio, it probably would've also been ascribed to some genetic mutation increasing transmissibility, instead of improvements in water sanitation leading to a steep drop in expecting women getting infecting & passing immunity in utero, which led to newborns having a naive immune status.

  • @andcan
    @andcan 2 года назад +20

    you didn't talk about vaccine mortality

    • @stefm.5947
      @stefm.5947 2 года назад +10

      Cz the vaccine mortality is next to nil dum dum

    • @andcan
      @andcan 2 года назад +7

      @@stefm.5947 😂

    • @deenzmartin6695
      @deenzmartin6695 2 года назад +1

      @@stefm.5947 ironic

    • @wasdwasdedsf
      @wasdwasdedsf 8 месяцев назад

      howq did this work out for you?@@stefm.5947

    • @wasdwasdedsf
      @wasdwasdedsf 8 месяцев назад

      @@stefm.5947 have a look at the death numbers of western countries...

  • @Achrononmaster
    @Achrononmaster 2 года назад +1

    I wish the elimination camp well, I truly do. But the social factors are helluva important, and if governments do not support workers with a Job Guarantee policy (government writes the cheque, local community decides on the public purpose work, no one who _wants_ to work goes unemployed) so households do not lose out in nominal terms during supply shock constraints, then the social pressures will boil over, and there'll be more pain for a while. The small vocal minority always spoil a weak effort of a collective, and neoliberals are just far too weak at collective action, hell, they do not even know what the term means.

    • @Achrononmaster
      @Achrononmaster 2 года назад

      If you have to ask: know that current price pressures are a relative pricing story, not a general inflation story (CPI index is not a good measure of inflation). So state currency is not really being devalued. Real wages are --- because certain specific commodities are suffering price shocks. The solution is not to limit worker demand, because effective demand is not the source of _this_ price pressure, supply shock is. You never fix supply bottlenecks by putting people out of work. It's the opposite. You need people to work harder (case in point: the nurses). So if you know your Keynes, or MMT, the best solution is to keep people fully employed on essential non-bullsh*t work. This raises effective demand through increased wage bill, but people tend to save out of income in a crisis and only spend on essentials, and the price pressure of essential goods is justified, you let it happen for as long as necessary, and it will fade once supply chains are healed.
      A similar misunderstanding occurs in population demographics: to solve a population growth crisis in the global south you need to make people healthier and safer, then they will not need to have so many children. Most people think backwardly and think shooting the effect will kill the cause.

    • @wasdwasdedsf
      @wasdwasdedsf 8 месяцев назад

      @@Achrononmaster lol, stop talking gibberish

  • @malanct
    @malanct 2 года назад

    I think air sterilization (not hepa filters) are the answer in planes and other confined spaces.

  • @robmcrob2091
    @robmcrob2091 2 года назад +1

    From where we are now elimination looks a tall order but I do think covid's unpredictability will force us to get the incidence rate down probably by developing tech - sterilising vaccines, IAQ tech such as air filters, testing etc. - and when we do that elimination might look like a little push rather than a huge mountain.
    We'll see I guess.

  • @LacayoEnLaCalle
    @LacayoEnLaCalle 2 года назад +1

    The wine is still a mystery …

  • @gIannoai
    @gIannoai 2 года назад +2

    Best dressed people on zoom. Look forward to y'all speaking on the weather

  • @js290
    @js290 2 года назад

    1) personal protection, 2) R0 and to what degree the various interventions address 1) & 2), respectively... 12:26 why not raise humidity indoors to help reduce probability of transmission? Bayesian problem with mass testing, which you guys discussed previously: ruclips.net/video/xuyI23SnkkY/видео.html

  • @Achrononmaster
    @Achrononmaster 2 года назад

    @20:20 Yaneer is assuming here government policy makers are not neoliberals. But most are. They have lost the neurological capacity to think in collectivist terms. "Every neoliberal pmc douchebag is a NIMBY," is only a very mildly incorrect statement, I'd guess 80% correct, maybe more.

  • @ottsch
    @ottsch 2 года назад +5

    I don't understand why he's ignoring long covid

  • @slbtz
    @slbtz 2 года назад +4

    Yaneer probably hasn't spent any time in Eastern Europe when he claims that the segment of the population is not that big (and amplified by the press). Vaccine resistance (and, in general, COVID measures resistance) in some countries is >50% and what the press promotes are not the people who oppose the measures but the resistance itself. Unfortunately, Nassim is right when he says that some people are opposed to COVID measures as a political stance, no matter what the measures are. I guess that the only way to convince this segment of the population to adopt these measures is to bribe Trump (or other symbols of the movement) into promoting them.

    • @PCSExponent
      @PCSExponent 2 года назад

      Or tell them to do the exact opposite.

    • @abdobe7359
      @abdobe7359 2 года назад +4

      Sorry, but how can you convince people , while having top countries in vaccination rates like Israel with delta and omicron making new highs in infections, ( vaccines are useless, cause each one is made against only one variant, + each variant is a weaker mutation .. so definitely lower mortality rates ). On this I on't care about trump camp or Biden camp, only unbiased multiples researches and top virologists with skin in the game, with decades of experience. like didier Raoult . vaccination should be targeted and with a doctor supervision, not forced or promote as Noah's boat.

    • @wasdwasdedsf
      @wasdwasdedsf 8 месяцев назад

      oh yea, cause trump supporters just go along with whatever he says no matter how nonsensical it is.
      sorry,were not democrats. how many conservatives cheered on the vac no matter how many times he tried to take credit for it?

  • @skc909887u
    @skc909887u 2 года назад +1

    I would like to hear about chance repeated infections , if that is remotely possible to estimate, please 🙏

  • @winknudgeable
    @winknudgeable Год назад

    It's completely crazy that Yaneer has to be the one to tell Nassim, "The past is not necessarily a predictor of future events."

  • @robmcrob2091
    @robmcrob2091 2 года назад

    Re: elimination If you can cut transmission you will inhibit viral evolution and this may enable vaccines to catch up and do most of the heavy lifting.
    1st step is to get transmission down.
    Stuff like iaq will help.

  • @brittanymarker4609
    @brittanymarker4609 2 года назад +5

    We need to start talking about universal N95s and daily testing.
    Also, why is Nassim dismissing long Covid??

  • @rachitarora659
    @rachitarora659 2 года назад +1

    I don't know yaneer is living in which world....I got blocked by you on twitter but I respect you...long covid is very very low percent...

  • @MPedro-pn7xu
    @MPedro-pn7xu 2 года назад

    Legendas em Português para o público brasileiro, por favor. Grata

  • @jasonvalencia4197
    @jasonvalencia4197 2 года назад +3

    Lolll 12:51

  • @geedoubleu641
    @geedoubleu641 2 года назад +6

    Vaccination! WTF! Go to Rumble and find Senator Ron Johnson's hearing called "second opinion".

  • @Mirgeee
    @Mirgeee 2 года назад +5

    Jesus Christ, Nassim, let him speak...

  • @fallenIights
    @fallenIights 2 года назад +1

    Hi nassim why are you reducing mortality

  • @stoppcovidiots4131
    @stoppcovidiots4131 Год назад

    beard ...uff