This guy really goes from giving rapid-fire reports from his hotel room one day, then hanging out on top of a mountain the next day. Living his best life!
They are not posted in the same order they are made. I've followed this newsletter for months & sometimes they post a quick response to breaking news & others they post part of a series that had been recorded two months before. I wish the record date was always made clear.
Agree, he doesn't add to his cache by looking like Wolf man Jack in the mtns, then side walled hair in front of a podium!! Strange strategy fr building his brand where professional & stable look are prized!!
You’re absolutely spot on about the abortion point. My mothe, a retired Midwife and Obstetrician had a 50 year career in the U.K. The Women who had the most (admitted) abortions, 10-15, were the Ex-Eastern Bloc and Greek. Many needed cervical cerclage (Suturing) due to weakness from having their cervix forced open so many times and Lots of problems like placenta accreta, placenta previa, 5 hour C sections that lead to hysterectomies due to hemorrhage etc.
My friend was an OB nurse (western US) had a patient from Eastern Europe who was a gravida 19, para 1. I don’t know about any complications but she was explaining, “don’t judge, it’s just what we do..” as she wept.
@@dodgeplow cervical weakness from repeated damage caused by abortion is NOT a separate issue. I'm a healthcare professional and have seen it up close and personal hundreds of times.
I live in the US. When I travel different parts of Mexico I'm always amazed on the sheer number of children and young people. The optomism is palpable, even with the cartel situation.
What if I told you the Mexican fertility rate is 1.9? You need 2.1 for a steady population. Mexico is in the same boat as everyone else. Even Niger's fertility rate is dropping on average 1% a year. This is a global problem.
When I lived in Istanbul, Turkey for a few years (where even the sidestreets and backstreets are crowded with people!) I visited Budapest, Hungary for a week. My first day in Budapest I thought the city had been deserted or something disaster happened because at 11am on Saturday there were almost NO HUMANS on the street. Its amazing to see the difference in population yourself.
I'm curious what exactly he means by "the Ukrainian (or Russian, or Chinese) ethnicity disappearing." Non-replacement birthrates don't mean that literally every ethnic Ukrainian will die in 30 years, it just means that there are fewer. I could see that causing huge economic problems, but that doesn't mean that "the Ukrainian ethnicity" will disappear.
If a country's indigenous population declines below a certain point, it will have no choice but to initiate larger and larger scales of immigration. Otherwise, everyone will starve to death or be forced to emigrate. Either way, although indigenous Russians and Ukrainians will continue to exist in their native lands, they will become a minority and the culture will shift to some sort of mix among the cultures of the majority immigration groups. Or the immigrants will fight a civil war until one of them dominates. Over the long span of history, this is not necessarily a bad thing. It has happened to many countries/ethnic groups before. I think this is what Peter means by "disappearing."
Right, they'd have to become more loose on their definition of "pure" to salvage their identity. An ethnostate doesn't have the advantage of an immigrant-driven Western Hemisphere country where naturalizing or simply being born there is considered close enough.
It is a common expression from Peter Zeihan. He means "fall from relevance", not literal extinction. He simply likes to be dramatic and to cause impact.
Japan didn't dissapear and they didn't import imigrants to replace the population like Germany did.Things will get better, slowly but surely and it will reach a balance.
Well if the state in question has no nukes, US doesnt protect it (zeihans underlying assumption is that US led order is over) and its bad demographics cause a dwindling population and economy, someone will invade it and eventually the ethnicity in question will be liquidated or just blend into the invaders ethnicity ( or at least its possible or likely especially as hes talking about smaller less long lasting culturaly weaker states and not a huge culturally strong country which actuaally ends up eating up the invaders ethnicity every time, like China)
Would Greece and Cyprus not be included in the geopolitical grouping of the Orthodox World? There hasn't been any mention of them in the series which is surprising to me given their strategic location and how they've been making a lot of headlines recently. It would be interesting to hear about their outlook especially considering the EU and Turkey factors and them being caught directly between the two.
Greece never fell to Communism so it's circumstances are different than the rest of the Orthodox World. It's still bad in Greece, but it's biggest problem stem from the issues of joining the EU.
@@mm-hq4qh Joining the EU allowed Greece to borrow and borrow and borrow and borrow some more. They were bankrupt some time ago and are in the process of collapsing as a country.
I just discovered your youtube after seeing your interview on Rogan's podcast. Your content is fascinating. You can find subject matter on just about everything but it's relatively rare to find this sort of bigger picture viewpoint type content that is this well informed and put together.
As a romanian I am really waiting to see your video on japan and to see what japan does in general because we need to turn this around somehow and if the japanese manage to do it at least we have a starting point
He's had a couple of videos in his podcasts and presentations. Financially Japan was very rich before their demographic decline, so they used their wealth to move their manufacturing to places with growing/static demographics and automated as much at home as possible. That has led them to a net zero growth rate during a demographic decline, but their birth rates have not recovered.
Demographically they are are not doing much at all but Japan has an advanced economy and highly educated population so they are making due with robots.
There is the famous quip: there are two things geographers can't explain: why Argentina keeps on doing so poorly and why Japan keeps on doing as well as it does.
looking forward to part 7. also are you going to cover africa and latin america or just more developed/western nations? glad you made the channel keep it up. so many great summaries, helps jog the memory and examine what I think I know about demographics. Funny enough it was my turkish middle school high school science teacher who gave a random lecture (unrelated to the general coursework) that first exposed me to these pyramid inversion issues. that was over a decade ago, going to be interesting to see how the leaders in demographic decline try and handle this inevitability, especially the less immigrant friendly, more ethnically insular nations.
So spot on! Thank you Peter. I look at interviews and sources such as the excellent Peter Zeihan for news and analysis. These days regular news, screen or print, is so poor in its reporting: partisan (both flavors), and with shallow reporting that almost always ignores relevant facts including relevant experts if the partisan news station doesn't like that person. Thank God we can get some relevant info from folks who are independent, resourceful, and sufficiently unbiased to state the truth.
Will you have a South American part to this? I love your videos by the way! A friend of my recommended one of your videos a couple of weeks ago and I have been binge watching them! Great job!
Thank you for all this important information! I wish you had happier news for the demographically-moribund nations of the world, but it is crucial for all concerned that you keep up this campaign of truth. And it is great that you are eloquent and skilled at it!
guy from moldova here, 18 out of 20 ppl from my high school class migrated, 80% of the people I ever knew in moldova migrated, it started with italy and spain in the early 00's, now the trend is UK and USA, even thou there is almost impossible to move to USA from moldova, there is a way thru romania.
I was teaching English to high school students in Istanbul, Turkey from 2013 - 2015. I had many Turkish/Moldavian students with parent(s) who came from Moldova.
I appreciate Peter's analysis, but wonder if he puts to much emphasis on demographics... the Russians and various Slavs have been around for a thousand years or more, thru the Black Death and countless wars and famines , but a few decades of demographic imbalance and economic mismanagement are going to lead to the end of their ethnic existence? I dunno.
MPC, Lots of ethnic groups that were around for thousands of years are now gone completely or on the verge of vanishing. Culture only persists for three generations. You’d be surprised how fragile the chain is.
The one thing that has changed is industrialization. The world has gone from agrarian to manufacturing. This is the basis for what Peter is talking about. Civilizations have never experienced this in human history. The old rules don't apply.
Times have changed Up until the century societies could replace populations after major disasters. The new element us small family and lack of replacement
I'm pretty excited that the general public is now becoming hyper-informed about all of these issues through your work. The degree of mental horizon-broadening that's actively occurring from millions of people watching your lectures and reading your books has to be unreal. In fact, not sure how you would frame it, but I'd love your take on the impact of Gen Z/Alpha becoming hyper-educated from free resources like this on RUclips, with education curated by experts in every field imaginable, and how this advanced level of education will be a variable that will shape our future societies. I feel like I've learned more from experts on RUclips than I learned in my four-year degree, many times over.
I really feel like traditional school is outdated, and needs to die. Like you said, kids and anyone, can learn from experts in ANY field, via RUclips, instead of learning from some crappy overworked teacher in an overfilled classroom. Instead of being forced along in an age cohort through grades, people can take as much or as little time as necessary to learn new things. Instead of having to sit through long lectures or get up early and be tired, they can learn when they are ready. VR and video games can give hands on experiences that they could never have otherwise.
I appreciate your work and the topics you discuss in these short videos made for RUclips. I wish I could afford the upcoming online seminar, but old guy here on retirement income, so that $750 is not possible for me at this time. I have reviewed all of your longer videos that I can find and I have no doubt that this seminar will be chockfull of meaty subject matter and facts, events and future possibilities and be worth every dollar.
I think Yugoslavia was doing well at its peak, no? The whole system crumbled terribly, but old folks speak about its height in very idyllic terms. Everyone had a job, vacation time, and a general up & up vibe.
They were part of the system and idoctrinated since childhood. Also in Croatia alone 600k people were informants for the secret police. It is a miracle we won our war of independence while so being so infiltrated.
Mr Zeihan hello. I'd like to hear a story of one time you were surprised or wrong. Anything catch you off guard? Your insights and presentations are fabulous. Thank you.
Mister zeihan i would appreciate it if in the next orthodox predicament you talk about the greek state also . Your work is amazing thank you for enlighting us your expertise is much needed in these times .Thank you in advance, have a nice day.
Greece isnt as bad as the other orthodox states, but is trending in the european direction of feminism-led population disappearance. As well many young people are leaving to other EU countries and beyond. Peter didnt mention Cyprus and Greece because they are inconsequential as compared to Russia Ukraine. Serbia and Moldova were just case point of complete failure.
Your abortion comment is very interesting, I'm also a dude. I'm also a pain management doctor and it's very interesting that every single female patient I've had with fibromyalgia has also had an abortion. So I think maybe the physical impact isn't big but the psychological impact of knowing that you were the person who killed your own child manifest itself psychologically and sometimes physically like my fibromyalgia patients. I don't think it's being pro-woman to make abortion so casual and easy in our conversations because you're actually destroying the woman's life while terminating the fetuses life
Dr., I recall Soviet data from the late 1980s that linked each abortion to a 10% reduction in the odds of carrying a subsequent pregnancy to term. Assuming the Soviets weren’t lying, their population was already screwed in the 1990s.
Abortion isn't pro-women, because men pressure women to have abortions, because they don't want to take responsibility. If men wanted to take responsibility, then most women would have the child. Women arguing for abortion are assuming the man won't be involved, and they don't want to be a single mother.
Figuring out a way to reverse these demographic trends is something we really need to pay attention to, especially if we want to maintain the same same or better standard of living.
I live in Serbia, and it's so very true that we never moved on from the wars of the 90s and the dissolution of Yugoslavia. The current leadership are parasites who refuse to move the country forward in any particular direction, we only get about 50-60,000 births per year against 110-120,000 deaths, and the cost of renting or buying real estate has skyrocketed now that we have wealthy Russians moving here and driving up the prices. Combined with inflation, I doubt this is going do much good for our birthrates.
I mean Serbians are absurd. I’m a ME Orthodox and the Serbians won’t let us worship with them. Im Syrian and went to a church and the priest asked me to leave. Lol losers. Going extinct soon.
Peter, great stuff as always. Just a correction. At about the 6:00 mark you mention some of the Turkic minorities of Russia. The Bashkirs and Tatars are Turkic. The Chechens are not. Some of the ethnic groups in Dagestan are Turkic, but most are not. Now, if you meant to say Muslim, then yes, all the groups you mentioned are primarily Muslim, but again, not all are Turkic.
Thanks! I always have a smile at the end..take care till next time too, your vids are so genuine, direct and full of facts, with a great collection of hats.. maybe you are a fellow Saggitarius. Gens rocks.
It’s worth remembering that ethnicity and culture are not the same thing. And shrinking and disappearing are not the same thing. What I suspect will happen is that a certain point the decline will virtually stop and then it would start to edge upwards. Will the population be anywhere as big as it is now - probably not, but that may not be an issue. At one point in our history there were less than 5000 humans left on this planet due to various reasons, and look at us now 😉
Yeah, that’s something I’ve thought about a number of times myself. Currently, much of Europe is still quite densely populated, while having a shortage of young people. As the mass die-offs happen of the older population dies off, it would not surprise me if in the the new environment with less population pressure that the few young people would start having more kids, especially if a shortage of fuel imports starts making it hard to run a farm without free labor.
This is true, but any society that reaches a bottleneck and emerges on the side is going to be very different, socially and culturally from the one that collapsed. Hundreds of years in the future it is likely to be written in history books as "the emergence of a new culture" rather than as a revival of an old one. Most of the old traditions and behaviours that might have contributed to the collapse will be ditched, it's almost like natural selection of cultures.
@@stephenderry9488 Much of the population decline has more to do with economics. The majority of developed countries are not sustaining their population with declining birth rates because the economics discourage multiple kids or having kids in general. Either countries go back to one parent working and one stay at home or they collectively take on the economic hardship from families to incentivize larger families and higher birthrates. As this trend is popping up all over the world it is pretty clear no one has a good answer to this problem.
I don't understand why Peter insists on talking about diminishing population as "vanishing" or "disappearing." Even radically lower numbers will leave millions, and those who reproduce will presumably pass on a genetic predisposition to have higher numbers of children.
Assuming a perfect boy-girl 50:50 split each couple raiaing one child will mean each generation will be half the size of the previous. A million quickly becones half a million, which quickly becomes 250k. 2.1 or bust.
I think it's like the idea of "in the long run" in economics. Sure, there may be forces rebounding the birth rate after some time, but this doesn't mean the entire process, which we are on right now, will be pleasant or business as usual.
He doesn't mean it like a magic trick. He means that people are not being replaced, so population is being lost. For everyone who dies without replacing themselves, they can be said to have vanished from the population numbers. And I would go further to say that Ethnicity is expressed, and if you don't have enough, you will have a lot of trouble expressing that ethnicity. At some point, the people of that ethnicity will just call themselves something else. What happened to the Romans? They didn't die off, but they sure did disappear.
Oversimplifying situation in very diverse countries. Orthodox are also in Bosnia (roughly close to half of a population), Montenegro, North Macedonia and Greece. Russia and Ukraine and Moldova are one "bundle", Romania and Bulgaria are different one, and Western Balkans or Ex Yugoslavian are third...Greece as Mediterranean country also is separate case. Yugoslavia was under soft communism in later stage in so called "coca cola socialism". They did produce cars, military planes, tanks and all sorts of military weaponry, food, and electronic appliances....etc. They were founders of Non align movement during Cold war, with more than 100 countries as members such as India, Egypt, Libya, Indonesia etc. Yugoslavians have non-visa regime with most of the countries in the world, including US and Eu countries back then. They could travel freely almost everywhere. Also it is worth to mention that cultural pattern is very different in Yugoslavia then in rest of Orthodox world which you artificially put in one batch)... Music, Cinematography, literature, cuisine, fashion, they were more western like in some cases more progressive (you can easily check these fact online or tube). There is a tons of materials from Yugoslav prosperity period (late 50s to late 80s) online, music, films...
Peter, the number of abortions when Chitin can affect future fertility is much lower than 10. (I had a friend who had 4--and had trouble carrying future pregnancies to term.) Anecdotal, I know, but there's $$ to be made in the abortion and pharmaceutical industries, so they don't tell us everything...
@@TheRevering Killing women and girls leads to even more. In Arizona, women are being denied chemo for cancer because they 'might' get pregnant. Republicans are talking about banning travel for pregnant women (or for any woman who might be pregnant) to keep them from having abortions even when the fetus has died. Arkansas is working on a law to throw women in jail for having miscarriage (Alabama has already done it). I guess you might like what Romania did...
@@TheRevering - In Russia abortion is the only consistently reliable method of family planning. They have no sexual education either. Please take off your dogmatic colored glasses and research.
Peters intimate knowledge of geography, politics and economics is a triple hitter of education. Thanks for keeping unbiased factual information flowing in the world. All the best to you
Thank you Mr. Zeihan for another great insight. I'm really interested to know your opinion about middle eastern counties like Iran, Iraq etc. with similar endogenous communitarian family values and how the rapid cultural change in these countries (specially Iran) would be affecting their demographics.
PZ is worried about mass starvation and state collapse in the MENA region in a post globalized world. He’s mentioned it in other vids and in his books.
Your daily vids are a staple in my viewing routine, thank you. Could you share your thoughts on the Salton Sea in CA and the newly coined term/idea in the news of late regarding of the possibility of a U.S. "Lithium Valley" that might impact battery resources?
Agreed. And Peter refers to that often. I am wondering too if technological advance such as we are seeing now, with artificial intelligence, computerization, and the like, also encourages a decline in birth rates. Not to mention that there are "advances" in medicine as to possible methods of birth control and/or ending a pregnancy.
The iron law of population dynamics. Only suprising to demographers who never raised lab animals or bacterial culture. No matter how much food you put in, after spreading over the whole petri dish the population stagnates.
Mostly agree. Real-world human population dynamics obviously include myriad elements that are wildly different than laboratories, but the underlying algorithms are pretty much iron laws. And whether surprising or not to Z & co., simply turning one's mind to view people groups this way is unusual enough that the audience is fascinated. Most of us probably would be fairly interested in engaging presentations of anyone's work that differed substantially from our own. The types who subscribe to Z are probably relatively high on the curiosity scale.
I don't quite understand how the entire ethnicity "vanishes". I can see it evolving. There are still people alive that were of the ancient Persian ethnicity. Peter makes it sound like you can go to these countries in 30 years, and the area will just have no one living there like the "Life After People" series. I can see the country having so few people that the economy doesn't function well, but entire ethnicities disappearing?
More and more Nigerians…millions coming. They will export themselves to a town near you. They’re coming now and I’m in the Frozen North. Get ready for Caucasians disappearing and other folks moving in. It’s already happening
Yeah, but that's the same thing. Is someone whose grandfather was Russian, pure Russian? What if he lives in the US and doesn't speak Russian, or even known Russian History? Did the Roman People die when the Roman Empire fell? But then where are they today? Their genetics were passed on, but they no longer exist as a people. And as the Roman Empire was falling, other peoples came in and took over. That is what will happen.
0:00 - list of countries 0:20 - 3 common characteristics: 1st - economic dislocation 2:05 - 2nd - huge emigration 2:59 - 3rd - birth control 4:08 - Demographics of russia and non-russian ethnicities in russia 7:25 - Demographics of Ukraine
I'm not completely sold that ethnicities such as Ukrainians, Russians, Japanese, and Koreans will be dissolving and disappearing as Peter claims. One or more ultimately may do so by the next century, but it's nowhere near a given, which is how Peter talks about it. Of course, in charity I can grant that Peter is speaking in terms of "at this rate," and I'm sure he understands that it's a given that any unforeseen plot twist could alter his predictions. For example, if the Japanese began heavily subsidizing families, put in a tax policy where any house hold with more than 3 children pay no tax, and the children provided free education all the way through college, as well as other benefits such as food stamps, then it's feasible that the population could see a baby boomer generation. You just have to create the right environment and the bees and the birds will take care of the rest.
You would need to do more than just government tax policy to incentivise young people to have children. Many of them are so focused on work and starting a career that children and a family just get pushed further and further back. A government would have to work with businesses and universities to provide easier pathways for women to start or restart their career in the thirties. They would also need to mandate paternal leave to reduce the imbalance in interrupted careers due to childbirth.
@@bader3677 If instead of paying 50% income tax you could keep 100% of your paycheck, you might consider it. Especially if you don't have to pay for medical bills, nor most of the children's food, education, with subsidized rent, and maybe even extra benefits such as preferential job acquisition when unemployed. I'm not saying it will be easy, but if any wealthy nation decides it's necessary for their survival, these are the kinds of actions that could be taken.
I'm curious to hear your thoughts on India. India seems to have a strong demographics with a mix of urban, rural and developing industrialization. Although there have been declines in birth rates since 2011 It seems fairly stable and a population that is still growing.
Well, Georgia 🇬🇪 was missed in this story but demographics is declining there too.. The question is does the decreased number of population mean extinction of the nation? What about strong sense of national identities that is often retained when people are emigrating?
I wonder, when he says an ethnicity is "vanishing," what that really means. These ethnicities didn't have such large populations 100 to 200 years ago; surely some stabilization is possible at a lower population?
I said “surely some stabilization is possible.” I didn’t imply that there was a magic number where you bottom out. Of course it’s up to the culture. It could certainly “work like that” if, for example, there are plentiful jobs and housing due to population decline which could create fortuitous economic conditions for having families.
What do you by the Ukrainian or the Russian ethnicities vanishing? Assuming there are 100 000 000 ethnic Russians in Russia it will take many generations for them to vanish altogether even if their numbers halve per generation. Please clarify what you mean by that.
Can someone explain what Peter means when he claims that countries/populations will vanish? Does he mean that in a literal sense, or more in the sense that their economies and influence on geopolitics is going to be seriously diminished? Thanks
I really enjoyed your video interview concentrating on Canada. As a Canadian, it is nice to find an American who actually can find us on a map! I hope to see more of your presentations. Let the world know your speaking tours - if you ever come near me, I'd love to attend.
Would it be possible to get population estimate not for Ukraine, but for Ukrainians? Many of them left country witch families or started families abroad. Once the war is over there could be chance that they will return. But that will depend on many many other things, like reforms and so.
@@shorewall It is possible as situation in Ukraine and Mexico is vastly different. We see creation of new national myth and such thing can play significant role. As well many Ukrainians had settled, even before war, in countries that are close to Ukraine, just few hour drive and often the ties with rest of their families were not severed by that. So I would say that if they will be able to win and then make reforms, then it could be possible.
You said something profound in a podcast that now just seems obvious, as countries become more urban, they build up...more apartment buildings...those apartment buildings are more likely to have 1 or 2 bedrooms instead of 3 or 4 bedrooms (for more kids). I don't think kids belong in apartments (they need a yard with a dog) but should US cities be "allowing" fewer bedroom high rise apartments? Also, should the US be worried about farms (fertile land) being sold for new subdivisions?
Just as bad, except Greece has had a lot of immigration to supplement their population. Especially from Albania in the 90s and early 2000s ... but now Albanian immigration is finished, many actually leaving for Western Europe (alongside qualified and highly skilled Greeks). They do have immigraton from Asia now instead, but still very low birth rates.
@Zeihen on Geopolitics Do you think, should the Ukraine come out victorious, that there might be a resurgence of births occurring, due to the people intentionally trying to "salvage the situation" in a wave of patriotic/nationalistic feelings and going for 3+ kids only to get (even if for a generation) into a positive birthrate trend?
It is likely that younger Ukraine refugees in other European countries stay in those countries. Ukraine with support from the west will remain a sovereign country, and maybe become a member of EU and NATO, but the pattern of younger generation going to other countries will in that case influence the demographics similarly to what you see in Poland now.
A few ideas off the top of my head: 1) A baby boom without the infrastructure (hospitals, midwives, schools, teachers, etc) to handle a large influx of babies and children has the potential for lots of dead infants and/or a generation of insufficiently educated people who will be unable to push their country's economy forward. 2) Ukraine's resources will already be stretched with looking after old people, long-term injured/disabled veterans and civilians, and reconstruction to handle a large influx of infants. 3) When the birth rate normalizes to pre-war standards, you've created another demographic crisis in a few decades.
You can always turn your birth rates around but there's a certain amount of pain 'baked in' due to mass retirement + small working-age population + the economic cost of a baby boom. Children require resources but don't produce any value for decades. So it is theoretically possible to turn it around but the economic forces might be too much for a nation-state to bear.
After WW2 all the allies would have had a wave of patriotic feelings. Americans had lots of kids because the US economy was very strong and they could support lots of kids. Allies in Europe had fewer kids because their economies were far weaker after the war and people couldn't support lots of kids. The economic situation in Ukraine after the war should be worse than the allies in Europe. I doubt Ukraine will get lots of support like Europeans got with the marshall plan.
@@saindustrian Ukraine has much better infrastructure when it comes to education and healthcare than some of the European countries. In Ukraine, pregnant woman get medical help that can maintain her pregnancy since the first weeks whereas in those countries she's not considered pregnant till 20 wks. Also, the higher education is free, childcare facilities are cheap and have professional staff, not just some ladies that finished 3-mnths courses.
Why does Peter Zeihan consistently state that a population of ~20-30 million 20-30 year olds is unable to repopulate itself "even theoretically". The theory isn't really that complex...
Ζeihan, as a Greek I feel left out :) I know we are a country that isn't really a typical part of their respective group (East Europe? West Europe? Balkans?) and we are aging as well but would be nice to knoe your opinion. Cheers.
for Romania, there was a pretty well developed industry actually: Tractors, Locomotives, train carriages, car manufacturing (currently Dacia is quite popular in the world, although sometimes rebranded as plain Renault) . On materials, aluminium (it's processed not raw) and petrol (however Austria reaped the benefits so far). Later, telecomunications (one of the most modern in the world) and IT services. We also make fighter jet training aicraft and tanks... In the end it was corruption and bad will of neighbouring countries which suppressed development.
By the early 90's Romanian industry was badly outdated; Dacia, before being bought by Renault, had practically been making the same model for 30 years.
The writing on the wall for almost all nations across the globe (with your noted exceptions). From one perspective, all ethnicities are "dying". I'm curious to hear your thoughts on a handful of questions: 1) If Germany, Russia, etc. are all declining, what is the relative trend between all these countries? If everyone shrinks by 20%, then relative demographic power is unchanged. How are populations changing as a percentage of world population or populations within regions? i.e. How are Germany's and Russia's populations changing within the sphere of Eurasia? Who is trending towards demographic domination? It would be interesting to look at how the percentage of the population in various age groups vary across countries over time. 2) As resources are sought after by relatively smaller populations, how does tech and education play a role as a force multiplier? What countries are set up the best for that? 3) To what extent do you foresee countries pushing back retirement ages either by law or simply by virtue of retirement being too costly? 4) Have you looked into technology trends in geriatric care? How are we going to care for an elderly population when the working population is overwhelmed? Will we see mortality rates among senior citizens dramatically increase? Will we see a fusion of sensor and AI tech give us Star Trek style sick bay beds to monitor, interact with and care for the elderly?
I think a better title would have been the "Post-Soviet Orthodox Space" since Greece, while Orthodox, is far more aligned to the comings and goings of the Mediterranean.
@@Longlius well, Serbia and Bulgaria were never Soviet, they were a part of Yugoslavia. And Romania was a part of the Eastern block under heavy Soviet influence, but still not a part of USSR proper.
@@Longlius given this, it seems to me that Peter simply hasn't explained how these countries' problems are explained by their Orthodox faith. If you forget the religious factor, they are all very different countries and might actually have more in common with their non-Orthodox neighbours than other Orthodox countries.
Wow Peter this might be my favourite video of yours yet. You're a total inspiration and actually because of seeing your success I've decided to start making videos too! Keep grinding, your hard work clearly pays off!
Greece, Montenegro and North Macedonia are also part of the Orthodox world. Why you leave them out? Montenegro is a very interesting case when it comes to demographics.
Man,,,,if I was 20 again.....I would take this as a personal challenge to save the world, just saying... Really interesting series! Great mind you have sir, thanks for sharing it with the world.
![Seungmin "그렇게, 천천히, 우리(As we are)" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/kAzmhLHePqU/mqdefault.jpg)
This guy really goes from giving rapid-fire reports from his hotel room one day, then hanging out on top of a mountain the next day. Living his best life!
They are not posted in the same order they are made. I've followed this newsletter for months & sometimes they post a quick response to breaking news & others they post part of a series that had been recorded two months before. I wish the record date was always made clear.
@@AnarchistHamster this one was in the can in late December
Agree, he doesn't add to his cache by looking like Wolf man Jack in the mtns, then side walled hair in front of a podium!! Strange strategy fr building his brand where professional & stable look are prized!!
He is cia
Dont forget also Joe Rogans Podcast like its no big deal.
Man, I sure am happy you were on Rogan's podcast. Im getting the newsletter and watching these vids every day. You are one of a kind, Sir. Thank you!
Hi, where can I see the whole podcast? Thanks.
i start watching him a few months prior that his appearence on rogan so when he went to the podcast i knew it was gonna be a good podcast .
You can find the full episode here: open.spotify.com/episode/406fOiiKMU0ot5AS1AIwve?si=9002227e82674df1
@@ZeihanonGeopolitics awesome, thank you!
@@astronomenov99 spotify is where you have to see/view Joe Rogans podcast now. There are only clips on RUclips now.
You’re absolutely spot on about the abortion point. My mothe, a retired Midwife and Obstetrician had a 50 year career in the U.K. The Women who had the most (admitted) abortions, 10-15, were the Ex-Eastern Bloc and Greek. Many needed cervical cerclage (Suturing) due to weakness from having their cervix forced open so many times and Lots of problems like placenta accreta, placenta previa, 5 hour C sections that lead to hysterectomies due to hemorrhage etc.
wtf.....
needing a cerclage is a separate issue from their abortions. Cervical weakness is not caused by them
My friend was an OB nurse (western US) had a patient from Eastern Europe who was a gravida 19, para 1. I don’t know about any complications but she was explaining, “don’t judge, it’s just what we do..” as she wept.
Interesting information, the USSR was the first country in the world that legalized abortions, communist legacy of destruction keeps showing up.
@@dodgeplow cervical weakness from repeated damage caused by abortion is NOT a separate issue. I'm a healthcare professional and have seen it up close and personal hundreds of times.
You are so spot on! Even when you discuss controversial topics, you pose them as questions, not as dogma. Thanks so much!
I live in the US. When I travel different parts of Mexico I'm always amazed on the sheer number of children and young people. The optomism is palpable, even with the cartel situation.
If you think that's "optimism", take a trip to Niger 🇳🇪!
What if I told you the Mexican fertility rate is 1.9? You need 2.1 for a steady population. Mexico is in the same boat as everyone else. Even Niger's fertility rate is dropping on average 1% a year. This is a global problem.
When I lived in Istanbul, Turkey for a few years (where even the sidestreets and backstreets are crowded with people!) I visited Budapest, Hungary for a week. My first day in Budapest I thought the city had been deserted or something disaster happened because at 11am on Saturday there were almost NO HUMANS on the street. Its amazing to see the difference in population yourself.
even the poorest regions in the world can afford sex
im irish catholic lol
@@worndown8280 seems like no one can afford children...
I'm curious what exactly he means by "the Ukrainian (or Russian, or Chinese) ethnicity disappearing." Non-replacement birthrates don't mean that literally every ethnic Ukrainian will die in 30 years, it just means that there are fewer. I could see that causing huge economic problems, but that doesn't mean that "the Ukrainian ethnicity" will disappear.
If a country's indigenous population declines below a certain point, it will have no choice but to initiate larger and larger scales of immigration. Otherwise, everyone will starve to death or be forced to emigrate. Either way, although indigenous Russians and Ukrainians will continue to exist in their native lands, they will become a minority and the culture will shift to some sort of mix among the cultures of the majority immigration groups. Or the immigrants will fight a civil war until one of them dominates. Over the long span of history, this is not necessarily a bad thing. It has happened to many countries/ethnic groups before. I think this is what Peter means by "disappearing."
Right, they'd have to become more loose on their definition of "pure" to salvage their identity. An ethnostate doesn't have the advantage of an immigrant-driven Western Hemisphere country where naturalizing or simply being born there is considered close enough.
It is a common expression from Peter Zeihan. He means "fall from relevance", not literal extinction. He simply likes to be dramatic and to cause impact.
Japan didn't dissapear and they didn't import imigrants to replace the population like Germany did.Things will get better, slowly but surely and it will reach a balance.
Well if the state in question has no nukes, US doesnt protect it (zeihans underlying assumption is that US led order is over) and its bad demographics cause a dwindling population and economy, someone will invade it and eventually the ethnicity in question will be liquidated or just blend into the invaders ethnicity ( or at least its possible or likely especially as hes talking about smaller less long lasting culturaly weaker states and not a huge culturally strong country which actuaally ends up eating up the invaders ethnicity every time, like China)
I remember people asking for this in the comments so he is listening. The love ❤.
Can't wait for the next episode on North East Asia.
Really good stuff, Peter! Really enjoy this series...all your presentations. Thank you.
I gotta get my morning dose of grim news from Zeihan, it's an addiction.
Yeah, me too! I don't suffer from this addiction. I kind of enjoy PZ 's assessments of the world's situations. I will be a well informed casualty!
🤓
Hes a clown amd wrong about so many things.
Would Greece and Cyprus not be included in the geopolitical grouping of the Orthodox World? There hasn't been any mention of them in the series which is surprising to me given their strategic location and how they've been making a lot of headlines recently.
It would be interesting to hear about their outlook especially considering the EU and Turkey factors and them being caught directly between the two.
Greece never fell to Communism so it's circumstances are different than the rest of the Orthodox World. It's still bad in Greece, but it's biggest problem stem from the issues of joining the EU.
@@BulletRain100 Really , Greece biggest problem is EU? Greece would bankrupt without EU.
No news is GOOD news, don't you think?
@@mm-hq4qh Joining the EU allowed Greece to borrow and borrow and borrow and borrow some more. They were bankrupt some time ago and are in the process of collapsing as a country.
Greek Orthodox is different from Easter Orthodox Christianity.
Thank you Mr.Zeihan , Your Expertise and talented presentation is much appreciated, Your a blessing to geo-politic students.and followers.
I just discovered your youtube after seeing your interview on Rogan's podcast. Your content is fascinating. You can find subject matter on just about everything but it's relatively rare to find this sort of bigger picture viewpoint type content that is this well informed and put together.
The education you are providing is priceless. Keep going!!!
Priceless in terms that it ain’t worth much😂
He thinks chechens are turkic lol. Thats how "priceless" it is.
Thanks for the info and the scenery 👍 Peter
As a romanian I am really waiting to see your video on japan and to see what japan does in general because we need to turn this around somehow and if the japanese manage to do it at least we have a starting point
They're failing to do anything
He's had a couple of videos in his podcasts and presentations. Financially Japan was very rich before their demographic decline, so they used their wealth to move their manufacturing to places with growing/static demographics and automated as much at home as possible. That has led them to a net zero growth rate during a demographic decline, but their birth rates have not recovered.
Demographically they are are not doing much at all but Japan has an advanced economy and highly educated population so they are making due with robots.
There is the famous quip: there are two things geographers can't explain: why Argentina keeps on doing so poorly and why Japan keeps on doing as well as it does.
@@keedt that means, geography isn't that important in developing the economy as Mr.Zeihan says
Great discussions on the important demographic data! Most valuable info. Regards.
looking forward to part 7. also are you going to cover africa and latin america or just more developed/western nations? glad you made the channel keep it up. so many great summaries, helps jog the memory and examine what I think I know about demographics.
Funny enough it was my turkish middle school high school science teacher who gave a random lecture (unrelated to the general coursework) that first exposed me to these pyramid inversion issues. that was over a decade ago, going to be interesting to see how the leaders in demographic decline try and handle this inevitability, especially the less immigrant friendly, more ethnically insular nations.
So spot on! Thank you Peter. I look at interviews and sources such as the excellent Peter Zeihan for news and analysis. These days regular news, screen or print, is so poor in its reporting: partisan (both flavors), and with shallow reporting that almost always ignores relevant facts including relevant experts if the partisan news station doesn't like that person. Thank God we can get some relevant info from folks who are independent, resourceful, and sufficiently unbiased to state the truth.
My man is out here with no coat.
He's just asserting his dominance over the climate
now that I think of it, looks like Wim Hof's brother.
Oh please. He's got a hat on! With a full head of hair. Can't be that cold if he's sporting a sweatshirt.
It's a dry cold. You can stand it for a bit.
It's Colorado, not Siberia. :)
@@Bob.W. Exactly 🤣
That was so much information... Amazing series! Sharing for sure.
Will you have a South American part to this? I love your videos by the way! A friend of my recommended one of your videos a couple of weeks ago and I have been binge watching them! Great job!
Which country are you interested in?
@@equim7363 colombia, Peru, Chile. It would be interesting to see if their pacific Allianz and leftist changes will take them somewhere
My favorite channel on YT. Thanks for your knowledge.
extinct, vanish, disappear ... are not synonyms for diminish
Solid analysis, thanks
Peter, I'm amazed you mention the A word, I almost fell of my chair at the golden arches.
Thank you for all this important information! I wish you had happier news for the demographically-moribund nations of the world, but it is crucial for all concerned that you keep up this campaign of truth. And it is great that you are eloquent and skilled at it!
guy from moldova here, 18 out of 20 ppl from my high school class migrated, 80% of the people I ever knew in moldova migrated, it started with italy and spain in the early 00's, now the trend is UK and USA, even thou there is almost impossible to move to USA from moldova, there is a way thru romania.
I was teaching English to high school students in Istanbul, Turkey from 2013 - 2015. I had many Turkish/Moldavian students with parent(s) who came from Moldova.
I appreciate Peter's analysis, but wonder if he puts to much emphasis on demographics... the Russians and various Slavs have been around for a thousand years or more, thru the Black Death and countless wars and famines , but a few decades of demographic imbalance and economic mismanagement are going to lead to the end of their ethnic existence? I dunno.
MPC, Lots of ethnic groups that were around for thousands of years are now gone completely or on the verge of vanishing. Culture only persists for three generations. You’d be surprised how fragile the chain is.
The one thing that has changed is industrialization. The world has gone from agrarian to manufacturing. This is the basis for what Peter is talking about. Civilizations have never experienced this in human history. The old rules don't apply.
Times have changed
Up until the century societies could replace populations after major disasters.
The new element us small family and lack of replacement
I'm pretty excited that the general public is now becoming hyper-informed about all of these issues through your work. The degree of mental horizon-broadening that's actively occurring from millions of people watching your lectures and reading your books has to be unreal.
In fact, not sure how you would frame it, but I'd love your take on the impact of Gen Z/Alpha becoming hyper-educated from free resources like this on RUclips, with education curated by experts in every field imaginable, and how this advanced level of education will be a variable that will shape our future societies. I feel like I've learned more from experts on RUclips than I learned in my four-year degree, many times over.
I really feel like traditional school is outdated, and needs to die.
Like you said, kids and anyone, can learn from experts in ANY field, via RUclips, instead of learning from some crappy overworked teacher in an overfilled classroom. Instead of being forced along in an age cohort through grades, people can take as much or as little time as necessary to learn new things. Instead of having to sit through long lectures or get up early and be tired, they can learn when they are ready. VR and video games can give hands on experiences that they could never have otherwise.
Great content. You know Peter, I've been watching you since back when you answered the comment section personally. 😆
I appreciate your work and the topics you discuss in these short videos made for RUclips. I wish I could afford the upcoming online seminar, but old guy here on retirement income, so that $750 is not possible for me at this time. I have reviewed all of your longer videos that I can find and I have no doubt that this seminar will be chockfull of meaty subject matter and facts, events and future possibilities and be worth every dollar.
I really recommend getting his latest book. He covers all the areas in much greater depth of detail and provides documentation.
this guy is a synonym for hyperbole but I like listening to his jabber because he is so good at it and seems happy
I like seeing the graphics it helps me understand what you are saying
I think Yugoslavia was doing well at its peak, no? The whole system crumbled terribly, but old folks speak about its height in very idyllic terms. Everyone had a job, vacation time, and a general up & up vibe.
They were part of the system and idoctrinated since childhood. Also in Croatia alone 600k people were informants for the secret police. It is a miracle we won our war of independence while so being so infiltrated.
Built on loans they could not repay
Mr Zeihan hello. I'd like to hear a story of one time you were surprised or wrong. Anything catch you off guard? Your insights and presentations are fabulous. Thank you.
Thank you for the video! Much appreciated! Greetings from Bulgaria!
Mister zeihan i would appreciate it if in the next orthodox predicament you talk about the greek state also . Your work is amazing thank you for enlighting us your expertise is much needed in these times .Thank you in advance, have a nice day.
Greece isnt as bad as the other orthodox states, but is trending in the european direction of feminism-led population disappearance. As well many young people are leaving to other EU countries and beyond. Peter didnt mention Cyprus and Greece because they are inconsequential as compared to Russia Ukraine. Serbia and Moldova were just case point of complete failure.
Outstanding Analysis!!! Thank You!!!!
As a Bulgarian by origin, thx for this update.
We in Serbia have struggled to throw out corruption for over millennium.
Stop paying taxes. The money draws criminals. REPEAL tax laws
Thank you so much for this one.
Your abortion comment is very interesting, I'm also a dude. I'm also a pain management doctor and it's very interesting that every single female patient I've had with fibromyalgia has also had an abortion. So I think maybe the physical impact isn't big but the psychological impact of knowing that you were the person who killed your own child manifest itself psychologically and sometimes physically like my fibromyalgia patients. I don't think it's being pro-woman to make abortion so casual and easy in our conversations because you're actually destroying the woman's life while terminating the fetuses life
Why are RUclips comments these days validating my seemingly schizophrenic thoughts from 3 years ago?!?
Dr., I recall Soviet data from the late 1980s that linked each abortion to a 10% reduction in the odds of carrying a subsequent pregnancy to term. Assuming the Soviets weren’t lying, their population was already screwed in the 1990s.
Abortion isn't pro-women, because men pressure women to have abortions, because they don't want to take responsibility. If men wanted to take responsibility, then most women would have the child.
Women arguing for abortion are assuming the man won't be involved, and they don't want to be a single mother.
@@shorewall It is surprising how often I find what you said to be the case when I speak to actual women who have faced the prospect of abortion.
Need to make contraception freely available to reduce abortions
Thanks for putting the graphic in the video this time!
Figuring out a way to reverse these demographic trends is something we really need to pay attention to, especially if we want to maintain the same same or better standard of living.
The harder we try, the worse it will get. Let God's plan play out HalleluYAH
I live in Serbia, and it's so very true that we never moved on from the wars of the 90s and the dissolution of Yugoslavia. The current leadership are parasites who refuse to move the country forward in any particular direction, we only get about 50-60,000 births per year against 110-120,000 deaths, and the cost of renting or buying real estate has skyrocketed now that we have wealthy Russians moving here and driving up the prices. Combined with inflation, I doubt this is going do much good for our birthrates.
Well the changes in BGD have been amazing. Once they move the Belgrade bus interchange to N.Beograd then you can say old belgrade is nice
I mean Serbians are absurd. I’m a ME Orthodox and the Serbians won’t let us worship with them. Im Syrian and went to a church and the priest asked me to leave. Lol losers. Going extinct soon.
@@EricAlHarb I moved to the Armenian church because of Serbian orthodox arrogance
Nemas ti pojma
@@TheWeedmate коме тај коментар?
He even manages to get a plane interrupting him in this video!
Love his insight and honesty
Peter, great stuff as always. Just a correction. At about the 6:00 mark you mention some of the Turkic minorities of Russia. The Bashkirs and Tatars are Turkic. The Chechens are not. Some of the ethnic groups in Dagestan are Turkic, but most are not. Now, if you meant to say Muslim, then yes, all the groups you mentioned are primarily Muslim, but again, not all are Turkic.
One more correction: tatars and bashkirs sadly have also bad demografics
@zjg4gcvn 100% agree. He doesn't know anything about the Balkans
Thanks! I always have a smile at the end..take care till next time too, your vids are so genuine, direct and full of facts, with a great collection of hats.. maybe you are a fellow Saggitarius. Gens rocks.
GenX stupid auto correct..
Learned a lot, as usual. Thanks, Peter!
Respect! for the follow up video!
It’s worth remembering that ethnicity and culture are not the same thing. And shrinking and disappearing are not the same thing. What I suspect will happen is that a certain point the decline will virtually stop and then it would start to edge upwards. Will the population be anywhere as big as it is now - probably not, but that may not be an issue. At one point in our history there were less than 5000 humans left on this planet due to various reasons, and look at us now 😉
Yes but this is not going to reverse in the next 50 years. Maybe in 500 years.
Yeah, that’s something I’ve thought about a number of times myself. Currently, much of Europe is still quite densely populated, while having a shortage of young people. As the mass die-offs happen of the older population dies off, it would not surprise me if in the the new environment with less population pressure that the few young people would start having more kids, especially if a shortage of fuel imports starts making it hard to run a farm without free labor.
This is true, but any society that reaches a bottleneck and emerges on the side is going to be very different, socially and culturally from the one that collapsed. Hundreds of years in the future it is likely to be written in history books as "the emergence of a new culture" rather than as a revival of an old one. Most of the old traditions and behaviours that might have contributed to the collapse will be ditched, it's almost like natural selection of cultures.
@@stephenderry9488 Much of the population decline has more to do with economics. The majority of developed countries are not sustaining their population with declining birth rates because the economics discourage multiple kids or having kids in general. Either countries go back to one parent working and one stay at home or they collectively take on the economic hardship from families to incentivize larger families and higher birthrates. As this trend is popping up all over the world it is pretty clear no one has a good answer to this problem.
@@stephenderry9488 Good riddance
Awesome video series!
I don't understand why Peter insists on talking about diminishing population as "vanishing" or "disappearing." Even radically lower numbers will leave millions, and those who reproduce will presumably pass on a genetic predisposition to have higher numbers of children.
Assuming a perfect boy-girl 50:50 split each couple raiaing one child will mean each generation will be half the size of the previous. A million quickly becones half a million, which quickly becomes 250k. 2.1 or bust.
I think it's like the idea of "in the long run" in economics. Sure, there may be forces rebounding the birth rate after some time, but this doesn't mean the entire process, which we are on right now, will be pleasant or business as usual.
He doesn't mean it like a magic trick. He means that people are not being replaced, so population is being lost. For everyone who dies without replacing themselves, they can be said to have vanished from the population numbers.
And I would go further to say that Ethnicity is expressed, and if you don't have enough, you will have a lot of trouble expressing that ethnicity. At some point, the people of that ethnicity will just call themselves something else. What happened to the Romans? They didn't die off, but they sure did disappear.
Oversimplifying situation in very diverse countries. Orthodox are also in Bosnia (roughly close to half of a population), Montenegro, North Macedonia and Greece. Russia and Ukraine and Moldova are one "bundle", Romania and Bulgaria are different one, and Western Balkans or Ex Yugoslavian are third...Greece as Mediterranean country also is separate case.
Yugoslavia was under soft communism in later stage in so called "coca cola socialism". They did produce cars, military planes, tanks and all sorts of military weaponry, food, and electronic appliances....etc. They were founders of Non align movement during Cold war, with more than 100 countries as members such as India, Egypt, Libya, Indonesia etc.
Yugoslavians have non-visa regime with most of the countries in the world, including US and Eu countries back then. They could travel freely almost everywhere. Also it is worth to mention that cultural pattern is very different in Yugoslavia then in rest of Orthodox world which you artificially put in one batch)... Music, Cinematography, literature, cuisine, fashion, they were more western like in some cases more progressive (you can easily check these fact online or tube). There is a tons of materials from Yugoslav prosperity period (late 50s to late 80s) online, music, films...
Peter, the number of abortions when Chitin can affect future fertility is much lower than 10. (I had a friend who had 4--and had trouble carrying future pregnancies to term.) Anecdotal, I know, but there's $$ to be made in the abortion and pharmaceutical industries, so they don't tell us everything...
Shocker. Killing your unborn leads to horrific consequences.
@@TheRevering only humans
@@TheRevering Killing women and girls leads to even more. In Arizona, women are being denied chemo for cancer because they 'might' get pregnant. Republicans are talking about banning travel for pregnant women (or for any woman who might be pregnant) to keep them from having abortions even when the fetus has died. Arkansas is working on a law to throw women in jail for having miscarriage (Alabama has already done it). I guess you might like what Romania did...
@@TheRevering You have it completely backwards birthing unwanted children you can't care for has far worse consequences.
@@TheRevering - In Russia abortion is the only consistently reliable method of family planning. They have no sexual education either. Please take off your dogmatic colored glasses and research.
Really interesting topic
I’ll ask the same question Joe Rogan asked. “How do you sleep all night thinking about all this information?”
To me, it brings great peace to gain a grasp of what's actually going on, instead of just seeing random events play out.
If you worry, you should only worry about things that you can change. Otherwise, you will be overwhelmed.
Peters intimate knowledge of geography, politics and economics is a triple hitter of education. Thanks for keeping unbiased factual information flowing in the world. All the best to you
Thank you Mr. Zeihan for another great insight.
I'm really interested to know your opinion about middle eastern counties like Iran, Iraq etc. with similar endogenous communitarian family values and how the rapid cultural change in these countries (specially Iran) would be affecting their demographics.
PZ is worried about mass starvation and state collapse in the MENA region in a post globalized world. He’s mentioned it in other vids and in his books.
Not looking good. Maybe invite the Ottoman Empire to come back. Just kidding......
Doesn't Iran have a large younger population?
Your daily vids are a staple in my viewing routine, thank you.
Could you share your thoughts on the Salton Sea in CA and the newly coined term/idea in the news of late regarding of the possibility of a U.S. "Lithium Valley" that might impact battery resources?
Seems one thing holds true ….the more we urbanise the lower the birth rate.
Agreed. And Peter refers to that often. I am wondering too if technological advance such as we are seeing now, with artificial intelligence, computerization, and the like, also encourages a decline in birth rates. Not to mention that there are "advances" in medicine as to possible methods of birth control and/or ending a pregnancy.
The iron law of population dynamics. Only suprising to demographers who never raised lab animals or bacterial culture. No matter how much food you put in, after spreading over the whole petri dish the population stagnates.
Mostly agree. Real-world human population dynamics obviously include myriad elements that are wildly different than laboratories, but the underlying algorithms are pretty much iron laws. And whether surprising or not to Z & co., simply turning one's mind to view people groups this way is unusual enough that the audience is fascinated. Most of us probably would be fairly interested in engaging presentations of anyone's work that differed substantially from our own. The types who subscribe to Z are probably relatively high on the curiosity scale.
Simpler than that. The richer we get the less we reproduce.
I enjoy that Peter likes the outdoors. It provides balance to all the mechanisms of man whose head swims with many details and connections.
Excellent analysis and commentary, thanks so much.
Your story telling style is so easy to follow. The analogies are clever and spot on. I enjoy your analysis and commentary very much. 8:46
Wouldn’t be a Zeihan video without a plane flying over. Didn’t get one in yesterday’s video because he was in his hotel room. 😢
Yeah, if there was a plane then it would be a problem. :D
awesome stuff!
I don't quite understand how the entire ethnicity "vanishes". I can see it evolving. There are still people alive that were of the ancient Persian ethnicity. Peter makes it sound like you can go to these countries in 30 years, and the area will just have no one living there like the "Life After People" series. I can see the country having so few people that the economy doesn't function well, but entire ethnicities disappearing?
More and more Nigerians…millions coming. They will export themselves to a town near you. They’re coming now and I’m in the Frozen North. Get ready for Caucasians disappearing and other folks moving in. It’s already happening
Yeah, but that's the same thing. Is someone whose grandfather was Russian, pure Russian? What if he lives in the US and doesn't speak Russian, or even known Russian History?
Did the Roman People die when the Roman Empire fell? But then where are they today? Their genetics were passed on, but they no longer exist as a people.
And as the Roman Empire was falling, other peoples came in and took over. That is what will happen.
entire ethnicities disappear easily as they get replaced or assimilated by others
Beautiful scenic country, Peter.
The CCP and Winnie-the-Pooh saw the orthodox predicament of economic and demographic collapse here and said "hold my beer." 🇹🇼👀🌎👍👍👍
0:00 - list of countries
0:20 - 3 common characteristics: 1st - economic dislocation
2:05 - 2nd - huge emigration
2:59 - 3rd - birth control
4:08 - Demographics of russia and non-russian ethnicities in russia
7:25 - Demographics of Ukraine
it wouldnt be a zeihan vlog without a plane interrupting things haha.
This is my most anticipated YT channel notification.
I'm not completely sold that ethnicities such as Ukrainians, Russians, Japanese, and Koreans will be dissolving and disappearing as Peter claims. One or more ultimately may do so by the next century, but it's nowhere near a given, which is how Peter talks about it. Of course, in charity I can grant that Peter is speaking in terms of "at this rate," and I'm sure he understands that it's a given that any unforeseen plot twist could alter his predictions. For example, if the Japanese began heavily subsidizing families, put in a tax policy where any house hold with more than 3 children pay no tax, and the children provided free education all the way through college, as well as other benefits such as food stamps, then it's feasible that the population could see a baby boomer generation. You just have to create the right environment and the bees and the birds will take care of the rest.
I've heard you cannot change the mind of the youth who currently have no plan of having children
About Japan: they take care of the eldery raising taxi to the Young, there is no incentive to forma families and no incentives to change this.
.... too easy !
You would need to do more than just government tax policy to incentivise young people to have children. Many of them are so focused on work and starting a career that children and a family just get pushed further and further back.
A government would have to work with businesses and universities to provide easier pathways for women to start or restart their career in the thirties. They would also need to mandate paternal leave to reduce the imbalance in interrupted careers due to childbirth.
@@bader3677 If instead of paying 50% income tax you could keep 100% of your paycheck, you might consider it. Especially if you don't have to pay for medical bills, nor most of the children's food, education, with subsidized rent, and maybe even extra benefits such as preferential job acquisition when unemployed. I'm not saying it will be easy, but if any wealthy nation decides it's necessary for their survival, these are the kinds of actions that could be taken.
This episode was chilling.
Geez, Peter - middle of nowhere, still have planes overflying you.
Hearing what sounds like a low plane in the background, plus the poor visibility and mountainous terrain makes for a dangerous combination.
I'm curious to hear your thoughts on India. India seems to have a strong demographics with a mix of urban, rural and developing industrialization. Although there have been declines in birth rates since 2011 It seems fairly stable and a population that is still growing.
I think india in general has lower than replacement birth rate, except for some ethnic / religious minotirites.
Well, Georgia 🇬🇪 was missed in this story but demographics is declining there too.. The question is does the decreased number of population mean extinction of the nation? What about strong sense of national identities that is often retained when people are emigrating?
'A metric butt tonne', lol. I shall incorporate this into my technical jargon, as well. Thanks for the informative videos.
Only time Americans like using metric 😂
Yeah, new for me too. I learn a lot from these videos. 'duke it out' as well.
I wonder, when he says an ethnicity is "vanishing," what that really means. These ethnicities didn't have such large populations 100 to 200 years ago; surely some stabilization is possible at a lower population?
it doesn't all of a sudden stablise at some number, doesn't work like that. All up to the countries culture
I said “surely some stabilization is possible.”
I didn’t imply that there was a magic number where you bottom out. Of course it’s up to the culture.
It could certainly “work like that” if, for example, there are plentiful jobs and housing due to population decline which could create fortuitous economic conditions for having families.
What do you by the Ukrainian or the Russian ethnicities vanishing? Assuming there are 100 000 000 ethnic Russians in Russia it will take many generations for them to vanish altogether even if their numbers halve per generation. Please clarify what you mean by that.
Can someone explain what Peter means when he claims that countries/populations will vanish? Does he mean that in a literal sense, or more in the sense that their economies and influence on geopolitics is going to be seriously diminished? Thanks
I am glad you spoke the unspeakable vis a vis abortion. Thank you for the clarification
I really enjoyed your video interview concentrating on Canada. As a Canadian, it is nice to find an American who actually can find us on a map! I hope to see more of your presentations. Let the world know your speaking tours - if you ever come near me, I'd love to attend.
Would it be possible to get population estimate not for Ukraine, but for Ukrainians? Many of them left country witch families or started families abroad. Once the war is over there could be chance that they will return. But that will depend on many many other things, like reforms and so.
That's like saying Mexicans who come to the US legally and have families will go back to Mexico. Hmm.
@@shorewall It is possible as situation in Ukraine and Mexico is vastly different. We see creation of new national myth and such thing can play significant role. As well many Ukrainians had settled, even before war, in countries that are close to Ukraine, just few hour drive and often the ties with rest of their families were not severed by that. So I would say that if they will be able to win and then make reforms, then it could be possible.
You said something profound in a podcast that now just seems obvious, as countries become more urban, they build up...more apartment buildings...those apartment buildings are more likely to have 1 or 2 bedrooms instead of 3 or 4 bedrooms (for more kids). I don't think kids belong in apartments (they need a yard with a dog) but should US cities be "allowing" fewer bedroom high rise apartments? Also, should the US be worried about farms (fertile land) being sold for new subdivisions?
What about Greece?
Grease is easily removed with detergent :)
Just as bad, except Greece has had a lot of immigration to supplement their population. Especially from Albania in the 90s and early 2000s ... but now Albanian immigration is finished, many actually leaving for Western Europe (alongside qualified and highly skilled Greeks). They do have immigraton from Asia now instead, but still very low birth rates.
Peter. Your thoughts on how A.I. and Cloning "could" affect your "predictions"?
@Zeihen on Geopolitics Do you think, should the Ukraine come out victorious, that there might be a resurgence of births occurring, due to the people intentionally trying to "salvage the situation" in a wave of patriotic/nationalistic feelings and going for 3+ kids only to get (even if for a generation) into a positive birthrate trend?
It is likely that younger Ukraine refugees in other European countries stay in those countries. Ukraine with support from the west will remain a sovereign country, and maybe become a member of EU and NATO, but the pattern of younger generation going to other countries will in that case influence the demographics similarly to what you see in Poland now.
A few ideas off the top of my head:
1) A baby boom without the infrastructure (hospitals, midwives, schools, teachers, etc) to handle a large influx of babies and children has the potential for lots of dead infants and/or a generation of insufficiently educated people who will be unable to push their country's economy forward.
2) Ukraine's resources will already be stretched with looking after old people, long-term injured/disabled veterans and civilians, and reconstruction to handle a large influx of infants.
3) When the birth rate normalizes to pre-war standards, you've created another demographic crisis in a few decades.
You can always turn your birth rates around but there's a certain amount of pain 'baked in' due to mass retirement + small working-age population + the economic cost of a baby boom. Children require resources but don't produce any value for decades. So it is theoretically possible to turn it around but the economic forces might be too much for a nation-state to bear.
After WW2 all the allies would have had a wave of patriotic feelings. Americans had lots of kids because the US economy was very strong and they could support lots of kids. Allies in Europe had fewer kids because their economies were far weaker after the war and people couldn't support lots of kids. The economic situation in Ukraine after the war should be worse than the allies in Europe. I doubt Ukraine will get lots of support like Europeans got with the marshall plan.
@@saindustrian Ukraine has much better infrastructure when it comes to education and healthcare than some of the European countries. In Ukraine, pregnant woman get medical help that can maintain her pregnancy since the first weeks whereas in those countries she's not considered pregnant till 20 wks. Also, the higher education is free, childcare facilities are cheap and have professional staff, not just some ladies that finished 3-mnths courses.
You are vlog guru for me, I take inspiration in my videos
Why does Peter Zeihan consistently state that a population of ~20-30 million 20-30 year olds is unable to repopulate itself "even theoretically". The theory isn't really that complex...
Because he didn't do any math. Or basic logic.
Ζeihan, as a Greek I feel left out :)
I know we are a country that isn't really a typical part of their respective group (East Europe? West Europe? Balkans?) and we are aging as well but would be nice to knoe your opinion. Cheers.
You pretty much fit most orthodox countries.
Lack of young people and smart young people have left
for Romania, there was a pretty well developed industry actually: Tractors, Locomotives, train carriages, car manufacturing (currently Dacia is quite popular in the world, although sometimes rebranded as plain Renault) . On materials, aluminium (it's processed not raw) and petrol (however Austria reaped the benefits so far). Later, telecomunications (one of the most modern in the world) and IT services. We also make fighter jet training aicraft and tanks... In the end it was corruption and bad will of neighbouring countries which suppressed development.
We had an Aro!
By the early 90's Romanian industry was badly outdated; Dacia, before being bought by Renault, had practically been making the same model for 30 years.
Comparing to Bulgaria, your country seems to be pretty solid economically
But hey you have Andrew Tate. An industry unto itself!
@@alf.2929 seems american, maybe you mean we have him detained
The writing on the wall for almost all nations across the globe (with your noted exceptions). From one perspective, all ethnicities are "dying". I'm curious to hear your thoughts on a handful of questions:
1) If Germany, Russia, etc. are all declining, what is the relative trend between all these countries? If everyone shrinks by 20%, then relative demographic power is unchanged. How are populations changing as a percentage of world population or populations within regions? i.e. How are Germany's and Russia's populations changing within the sphere of Eurasia? Who is trending towards demographic domination? It would be interesting to look at how the percentage of the population in various age groups vary across countries over time.
2) As resources are sought after by relatively smaller populations, how does tech and education play a role as a force multiplier? What countries are set up the best for that?
3) To what extent do you foresee countries pushing back retirement ages either by law or simply by virtue of retirement being too costly?
4) Have you looked into technology trends in geriatric care? How are we going to care for an elderly population when the working population is overwhelmed? Will we see mortality rates among senior citizens dramatically increase? Will we see a fusion of sensor and AI tech give us Star Trek style sick bay beds to monitor, interact with and care for the elderly?
Greetings from Bulgaria 👋
Looking right now Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria in the last 20 years have seen dramatic growth in per capita GDP.
Hey, you forgot us in Greece, you do such good work I will let it go this time:)
I think a better title would have been the "Post-Soviet Orthodox Space" since Greece, while Orthodox, is far more aligned to the comings and goings of the Mediterranean.
@@Longlius well, Serbia and Bulgaria were never Soviet, they were a part of Yugoslavia. And Romania was a part of the Eastern block under heavy Soviet influence, but still not a part of USSR proper.
@@Longlius given this, it seems to me that Peter simply hasn't explained how these countries' problems are explained by their Orthodox faith. If you forget the religious factor, they are all very different countries and might actually have more in common with their non-Orthodox neighbours than other Orthodox countries.
Wow Peter this might be my favourite video of yours yet. You're a total inspiration and actually because of seeing your success I've decided to start making videos too! Keep grinding, your hard work clearly pays off!
cory
This might be my favorite spam of yours yet.
Interesting to see what Skynet finds so inspiring. Keep ‘grinding’ Peter; you’ll get there! 😂
Greece, Montenegro and North Macedonia are also part of the Orthodox world. Why you leave them out? Montenegro is a very interesting case when it comes to demographics.
Man,,,,if I was 20 again.....I would take this as a personal challenge to save the world, just saying... Really interesting series! Great mind you have sir, thanks for sharing it with the world.
My youngest aunt was born to by grandfather of 68 yrs, so you're still good to go
Why save it tho? People are entitled to their consequences and civilization is required its growth