It seems that none of these scientists told the star it had to go nova before September. Maybe it's just really busy right now. Maybe it has scheduling conflicts.
@@y180sx5 Eternally late and occasionally explodes and sterilizes the entire area around him? Yeah, he's already in my group, thanks. Don't need another one.
This is my absolute favorite RUclips channel, and Anton is the best science "communicator" online, period! I just love to listen to him, learning new things every time!
Based on previous experience, this once in a lifetime event will occur when Seattle's night skies are overcast and raining for 30 days in a row. So, this November?
@@rolandblock2530 One of the times a guy I know in Eastern Washington babbled that sort of thing, it was 20 below zero outside his house and about 35 above in Seattle.
If this happens every 80 years, and it's 3000 light years away, that would mean it has done it's nova explosion 37 times since the last one that was visible, and the visual light show from each one is currently en route to us.
What you said makes no sense unless I'm missing something. It's happened 37 times since the last visible one? I think you meant it happens 37 times in the time it takes one nova to reach us but they're all visible. There are 37 explosions en route at all times. We see them all if they are in fact visible to us. Correct me if I'm wrong
That doesn’t work that way at all. It’s only done it once since the last tie… because it only happens every 80 years. The space in between has had it happen 37 times from the origin. That light exists. But it still occurs… every 87 years lol.
Anton, there is nothing to be apologizing for. If you don't predict the correct date for something that has been observed so few times, and for which we have no model, the margins of error are bound to be huge. You're sharing science with the public, which is so incredibly valuable. Stay wonderful. Stay the course. Stay Anton.
Oops, my bad.😂 The most amazing wonderful anomaly is that you can still find people that has the ability to admit that they are wrong and not trying to cover up a mistake. ❤ Respect.
You uploaded this on the last minutes of my bday (20th september), which was the day I commented back then to join the prediction game. We all lost but I have a video on my bday related to the other one! 😸
Ah, I wondered if I missed something. Thanks for keeping us up-to-date! So it can still happen some time from now (in my remaining lifetime, I would like to see it with my own eyes).
This channel honestly moves up in my favorites at a constant rate, just good interesting content well explained. You should do a video about expansion microscopy. It’s a biology thing and not exactly new but there is a paper on biorxiv called “ Dense, Continuous Membrane Labeling and Expansion Microscopy Visualization of Ultrastructure in Tissues” that is pretty cool and could be big
@@davidstevenson9517Space is huuuge, anything can happen, and it does! and that keeps baffling everyone! But I’m not making fun of them because it baffles me too sometimes Space is also (what the original commenter said) very … varying.. a very mixed bag -! It’s diverse like people here on earth
So, it's 2990 ly away. That means that if it explodes every 80 years or so, it will have exploded 37 additional times since the light we see left the star.
@@whiskeytango9769 Yes. There are other quirks in astrophysics. The term "dwarf star" means it's a main sequence star fusing hydrogen. This means that the star bi253 -- an extraordinarily rare main sequence O2V in the LMC -- is a dwarf. Yet it has almost 100 solar masses. And a white dwarf can be either a main sequence star or the dead corpse of a star.
@Chromegrillz - If their world was orbiting Betelgeuse, they would have been wiped out by the off-the-charts, coronal mass ejections, millions of years ago. Any planets orbiting Betelguese would have had their atmospheres fried. Any surface water would have been boiled away, very quickly. Inner planets would have been completely destroyed as the star expanded into its red giant phase. The same thing will happen to the earth, when our Sun becomes a red giant in a few billion years.
Good thing is: in real life, those ultra massive stars live ridiculously short lives (for stars' standards), so it's almost impossible there's life around Betelgeuse or, at most, it's just the most simple bacteria and some viruses
People don't understand probabilities. A 90% chance of something still means a 10% chance that it won't occur. Even now, we have no idea if those earlier predictions were "incorrect," since we could simply be within the 10% scenario.
@wesbaumguardner8829 The limiting factor is much more likely to be data resolution. We have really good understanding of many things that are still problematic to forecasts, because the available data doesn’t have enough resolution for a definitive answer. Also, some processes are very well understood, but are inherently very chaotic (such as fluid turbulence, for example).
Indeed. Same frustration for weather forecasters. 5% chance of rain and it rains? People scream that the forecast was wrong. Nope, it was dead accurate. There was a 5% chance and today was the 5%. So was the forecast for the nova wrong? Nope. Even if it is another 10 years before it occurs. Because it's a CHANCE, not a certainty. People overall are by nature (structure and function of the brain) very bad at understanding on an emotional level probabilities and as I have found, scale. Perceptionally, (IE ask someone to picture it in their mind) for most people the galaxy is just a little larger than our solar system and the known universe is just a few times bigger than than that. The enormous real size difference cannot be pictured in the mind for most people. The human brain is not wired for it. Same with probabilities. Our brains are very much more Yes/No Than 1%/2%/3%/..../99%/100%. But without that, the Lottery would have no players...
@@Baughbe You do not understand weather forecasting. When they say there is a 5% chance of rain, they are not saying that there is a 5% chance that you are going to get rained on. They are saying that 5% of a certain geographic area is going to receive rain. It is an estimate, not a prediction.
I was waiting for an update on this! I know it's just going to be a new star in the sky, but what I really would like to see is the transition. That should be trippy. Almost impossible to do it intentionally, but I like to think someone in the world will be looking up when it happens.
It's a markov chain's event, which means the accurateness goes exponentially down the further into future you go. You can't predict weather the text SECOND, if you want to be very legalistic about it
As I understand nova, they are not explosions in an orbiting accretion disk, but are explosions in an accreting layer, laying on the white dwarf or neutron star's surface. Once it gets deep and dense enough, it goes off, like a hollow hydrogen bomb.
Great video Anton. When the weather permits, I try to observe the Corona Borealis constellation to document it by using binoculars and taking pictures. Hope to see TCrB soon... It would be a cool add to the photos collection.
Anton gets to the point and makes it interesting. Plus, I love subtle sarcasm. My wife is so intelligent but so liberal. Most of my witticisms boomerang. Keeps me humble.
About thermonuclear explosion happening in the accretion disk. I highly doubt it, because the accretion disk is probably cooler and less dense than the outer atmosphere of the companion star, and it's clearly deeply below ignition point. I thought the ignition is expected to happen on the surface, where the accreted gas is confined there by the gravity pit of the small dense star.
Hi Anton. Do not apologize! Think of the various ends of the world predicted by many people there outside. 😂😂😂. ❤❤❤❤ luckly they were wrong😅😅 anyway, apologizing is always appreciable! ❤❤❤ love to you and your family wow! We know when your birthday is! ❤❤
I'm still going with September 17th... My mother's birthday. It would be nice if it happened in 2025 on that date because that will be her 80th 😀 (Mum, I got you a Nova for your B'Day) 😁
Thanks, Anton. You are my favourite science commentator. Bearing in mind that the Huygens probe in 2005 chose 14 January (my birthday) to land on Titan, I feel lucky. So I pick 14 January 2025 for this explosive celestial event. But a couple of days is a mere nothing in this universe, so I will consider us both winners if it happens anytime that week. 🙂
When Halleys Comet made it's last appearance in 1986, it rained for 3 weeks... so it does happen. Three months later, I moved 1,000kms north to the warmer climes of my country. Hello from New Zealand.
I was wondering what had happened to this! Thanks for the update. I'm still slightly unsure about exactly how bright this will be... will it be easy to find with the naked eye? I'm at least glad I've now had my cataract operation so I'll stand a better chance of actually seeing it in focus! My distance vision is so much better than it was a few days ago :)
@@johncopithorne6176 Thanks for the info! I'm not yet sure how well I can see stars, as I haven't had a clear sky yet - but I'll definitely remember that :)
Anton, I love the channel and recommend it to anyone I think might be interested. Is there any chance you'll cover the material contained in Luis Elizondo's book Imminent?
I had trouble believing the prediction for when this nova would occur in the first place. With so many unknowns it only stands to reason that a few atoms here or there could speed up or slow down when the explosion might occur. So for now it's just a question of it will happen when it happens.
Love the videos but just find it ironic to say "we know exactly how they work" yet, they dont work according to how we thought, thus we dont know exactly how they work at all
ive had a google search alert sending emails to myself daily so i could see the exact night it was visible... its been driving me mad since your first video haha
Thanks Anton, it's scary that when you say 2025 that means I'm going to be SIXTY wow what happened, have a WONDERFUL weekend and PEACE AND LOVE TO EVERYONE ❤❤.
dont worry, it doesnt seem like the type of thing you can really predict, even if you have a ton of info. its a supernova, i don’t think they operate on human timescales. we’ll probably see it in our lifetime, and that’s enough for me!
Since its very far away the light might be getting interfered with as it transits to us. I think you will discover that light speed is actually variable and begins to slow down as it encounters dust etc.
We still can't accurately predict the path and impact of storms on our own planet, let alone much more complex ones in accretion discs thousands of lightyears away. Same can be said for volcanoes; we're getting better at understanding their behaviour, but there's still a lot of guess work and estimation in predicting when they'll erupt. Giving an approximate 2-year frame I think is still a pretty good achievement, and when it does finally explode, because it is being more closely observed, it will provide better data for understanding the indicators.
My theory? The dip is an ejection from the companion star - whether an CME results in a nova occurring depends on the dwarf capturing enough mass to trigger a nova.
I've been checking the sky a few times every night for months now. Kinda reminds me of going up on a hill overlooking my city for y2k and not even getting a flicker. At least I've gotten to see a bunch of meteors
In 2005 I was looking at a star while waiting on daylight. I was on a turkey hunt approximately 5 am waiting to walk into my hunting area. As I was admiring it there was a bright flash and a halo. Then it was gone...pure visual magic.
That was me down here in New Zealand trying to secretly communicate with your sister. I won't tell you my address... and neither will she. Go back to sleep.
I wouldn't say that it's expected to be one of the brightest stars in the night sky. At a peak of about +2 to +3 there will be around 100 or more stars considerably brighter. In even a small telescope it will be quite bright, but to the naked eye, not so much. Recurrent novae are notorious for not keeping an exact schedule too. A predicted time slot for the next appearance is kinda like the speed limit on a freeway; it's just a suggestion. LOL ! Thx for the update.
Well, considering there are about 5000 stars visible to the naked eye, if there are only about 100 stars brighter than it, that means that it is among the 2% of the brightest stars.
"Were astronomers wrong", a sentence asked in the introduction. ----- No, they WERE not wrong, they ARE wrong. Stars don´t explode, but gets electromagnetically charged and cyclically relief discharges, just like our Sun.
One could say that the relief explodes out from the star. Terminology used by everyday folks + science terms + money = we laymen don't give too many shoots about the more descriptive verbs to explain a powerful outflow of energy.
I grew up reading Lord Byron's work. One could say, "The celestial bodies experience that which we humans experience. We all go through a metamorphosis, shedding our mortal coils, and our spirits are loosed upon the heavens, and we transverse this realm through energies unseen. As powerful as our passion exploding from our loins, the stars too explode their passions into the ether."
If the star can spin at 200km/s, but only orbit galactic core at 100km/s (avg), then it appears to be another wrench in cosmic expansion? Galaxy velocity for CE are 47 or 67km/s (/CDM or or Ladder-Dist). We know 'frame dragging' is a thing with relativistic speeds; but are we not accounting for a 'frame friction/energy bleed-off' If the star's angular/orbital velocity is higher than what it'd be from gravitational effects of SMBH at center (on its own), how long can that higher velocity be maintained? and 'what/where' is that energy converted once it is lost? (Friction, Collisions, Visc Dissipation, Conduction)...Whether you want to look at the kinetic energy -->thermal energy, and whether its at a subatomic scale or more macro...there'd be huge amounts of energy being dumped into the space around the star as it slow slows down.
It seems that none of these scientists told the star it had to go nova before September. Maybe it's just really busy right now. Maybe it has scheduling conflicts.
It's getting its hair done and won't have time to nova until October.
To be fair, stars are often busy and in high demand in many places... they also demand (and get) high fees!
Imagine having this star in your D&D campaign 🙄
@@y180sx5 Eternally late and occasionally explodes and sterilizes the entire area around him?
Yeah, he's already in my group, thanks. Don't need another one.
Or Covid!
This is my absolute favorite RUclips channel, and Anton is the best science "communicator" online, period! I just love to listen to him, learning new things every time!
You must like watching people eating crow
My life consists of binging Anton and Professor Dave’s videos whenever I’m not studying languages.
I agree, but also like Faiser Cain
@@ceramicfish4934oh yeah I have watched a few of his recently I’ll have to check out more
Agree. I love how he doesn't bring in personal politics into his channel too
Based on previous experience, this once in a lifetime event will occur when Seattle's night skies are overcast and raining for 30 days in a row.
So, this November?
In Seattle, isn't it ALWAYS raining 30 days in a row?
I thought that was just fires from BurnLootMurder?
It only rains from October through June. Couldn’t get the F outta there fast enough
@@TheGuruStud
@@rolandblock2530 One of the times a guy I know in Eastern Washington babbled that sort of thing, it was 20 below zero outside his house and about 35 above in Seattle.
If this happens every 80 years, and it's 3000 light years away, that would mean it has done it's nova explosion 37 times since the last one that was visible, and the visual light show from each one is currently en route to us.
This is the one channel where the community obviously knows how light works.
What you said makes no sense unless I'm missing something. It's happened 37 times since the last visible one? I think you meant it happens 37 times in the time it takes one nova to reach us but they're all visible. There are 37 explosions en route at all times. We see them all if they are in fact visible to us. Correct me if I'm wrong
That doesn’t work that way at all. It’s only done it once since the last tie… because it only happens every 80 years. The space in between has had it happen 37 times from the origin. That light exists. But it still occurs… every 87 years lol.
@@jasonn9222 The last visible one happened 3000 years ago.. It has exploded 37 times since then, we have yet to see these events.
Anton, there is nothing to be apologizing for. If you don't predict the correct date for something that has been observed so few times, and for which we have no model, the margins of error are bound to be huge.
You're sharing science with the public, which is so incredibly valuable.
Stay wonderful. Stay the course. Stay Anton.
I would add: Honest and admitted mistakes are highly underrated
Agreed. It's not like he caused its failure to explode. We can't do more than make the best prediction the data allows.
Still he presented incorrect & false information to viewers who have became to trust what he pushes as truth.
Thank you for literally being the only person to talk about this directly
Wonderful as always Anton. Thank you. 💙🙃😊👍
Oops, my bad.😂 The most amazing wonderful anomaly is that you can still find people that has the ability to admit that they are wrong and not trying to cover up a mistake. ❤ Respect.
Yes. More than a few humble wrongs are better than many arrogant rights... so to speak
Very cool, what prevents the hydrogen gas from being completely blown away by the explosion? It seems crazy that it can keep happening like that!
I'm going to guess the white dwarf's strong ass gravity keeping some of the hydrogen on the surface
the white dwarf is drawing mass from a companion star. that's why the nova is a regularly recurring event.
Anton you never have to apologize for the universe not behaving the way scientists think it should. It's never been a tame animal. 💕
You uploaded this on the last minutes of my bday (20th september), which was the day I commented back then to join the prediction game. We all lost but I have a video on my bday related to the other one! 😸
The only predictable thing in the science of space is how unpredictable it is. It's still fun to speculate, though. That's what makes it so exciting!
Actually, there is one predictable thing about the science of space. The physicist's predictions will be wrong. That is my prediction.
Who could have predicted such Comments...?
Ah, I wondered if I missed something. Thanks for keeping us up-to-date! So it can still happen some time from now (in my remaining lifetime, I would like to see it with my own eyes).
This channel honestly moves up in my favorites at a constant rate, just good interesting content well explained. You should do a video about expansion microscopy. It’s a biology thing and not exactly new but there is a paper on biorxiv called “ Dense, Continuous Membrane Labeling and Expansion Microscopy Visualization of Ultrastructure in Tissues” that is pretty cool and could be big
Space is insanely diverse. So many possibilities it baffles the mind.
I don't understand...
@@davidstevenson9517Space is huuuge, anything can happen, and it does! and that keeps baffling everyone! But I’m not making fun of them because it baffles me too sometimes
Space is also (what the original commenter said) very … varying.. a very mixed bag -! It’s diverse like people here on earth
@@somethingwithbungalowsNo need to explain that to a Flat Earther
@@aaron7392 OH!! I see now! I did not know he was one lol (I just thought he just couldn’t grasp it for some reason)
Oh wow! You share my mom’s birthday. She would have loved your channel! ❤
So, it's 2990 ly away. That means that if it explodes every 80 years or so, it will have exploded 37 additional times since the light we see left the star.
True. However, astrophysicists timestamp events when the their light reaches Earth.
@@douglaswilkinson5700 Yes, understood...I just thought it was an interesting fact to think about.
@@whiskeytango9769 Yes. There are other quirks in astrophysics. The term "dwarf star" means it's a main sequence star fusing hydrogen. This means that the star bi253 -- an extraordinarily rare main sequence O2V in the LMC -- is a dwarf. Yet it has almost 100 solar masses. And a white dwarf can be either a main sequence star or the dead corpse of a star.
But if no one saw it, did it really happen?
@@cidie1 We will see it though, that light is on its way here now.
I never miss a day of Anton.
I was just wondering about this today. I've been trying to keep an eye out for it.
Betelgeuse goes supernova humans celebrate. Meanwhile aliens at planets orbiting Betelgeuse going through apocalyptic worlds ending. 😂
@Chromegrillz - If their world was orbiting Betelgeuse, they would have been wiped out by the off-the-charts, coronal mass ejections, millions of years ago. Any planets orbiting Betelguese would have had their atmospheres fried. Any surface water would have been boiled away, very quickly.
Inner planets would have been completely destroyed as the star expanded into its red giant phase.
The same thing will happen to the earth, when our Sun becomes a red giant in a few billion years.
It will mean Ford Prefect and Zaphod Beeblebrox can’t go home again.
@@kellydalstok8900 I see what you did there. I love the Hitchhiker Guide to the Galaxy.
Good thing is: in real life, those ultra massive stars live ridiculously short lives (for stars' standards), so it's almost impossible there's life around Betelgeuse or, at most, it's just the most simple bacteria and some viruses
People don't understand probabilities. A 90% chance of something still means a 10% chance that it won't occur. Even now, we have no idea if those earlier predictions were "incorrect," since we could simply be within the 10% scenario.
If they knew exactly how these events occur, it would not be a probability. Instead, they would know exactly when and how the events would occur.
@wesbaumguardner8829
The limiting factor is much more likely to be data resolution. We have really good understanding of many things that are still problematic to forecasts, because the available data doesn’t have enough resolution for a definitive answer. Also, some processes are very well understood, but are inherently very chaotic (such as fluid turbulence, for example).
“Million-to-one chances...crop up nine times out of ten.”
― Terry Pratchett, Equal Rites
Indeed. Same frustration for weather forecasters. 5% chance of rain and it rains? People scream that the forecast was wrong. Nope, it was dead accurate. There was a 5% chance and today was the 5%. So was the forecast for the nova wrong? Nope. Even if it is another 10 years before it occurs. Because it's a CHANCE, not a certainty. People overall are by nature (structure and function of the brain) very bad at understanding on an emotional level probabilities and as I have found, scale. Perceptionally, (IE ask someone to picture it in their mind) for most people the galaxy is just a little larger than our solar system and the known universe is just a few times bigger than than that. The enormous real size difference cannot be pictured in the mind for most people. The human brain is not wired for it. Same with probabilities. Our brains are very much more Yes/No Than 1%/2%/3%/..../99%/100%. But without that, the Lottery would have no players...
@@Baughbe You do not understand weather forecasting. When they say there is a 5% chance of rain, they are not saying that there is a 5% chance that you are going to get rained on. They are saying that 5% of a certain geographic area is going to receive rain. It is an estimate, not a prediction.
thanks anton
i had wondered why they were predicting early even though it hadn't been 80yrs yet but you gave the information i needed for that
I was waiting for an update on this!
I know it's just going to be a new star in the sky, but what I really would like to see is the transition. That should be trippy. Almost impossible to do it intentionally, but I like to think someone in the world will be looking up when it happens.
This will look nothing like a 'new star' this will be massive and visible in the daylight
Well it has happened, we just haven't seen it yet. Maybe the light IS getting tired 😂
We still can't predict weather for next day. I'll leave it at that..
Oh, ye of little faith 😊
Pretty much this
It's a markov chain's event, which means the accurateness goes exponentially down the further into future you go. You can't predict weather the text SECOND, if you want to be very legalistic about it
An episode about the importance of models, the good, the bad, the ugly - and why they're so important - would be very illuminating to most
Hey, forgot to tell you, T CrB called and said it was late because of traffic, stuck behind a Warp-2 semi truck -- sorry.
The interval is going to get longer and longer, as there is less and less material to accrete.
Excellent! Am so use to inappropriate comments on Anton's videos -- yours is a great TGIF gift!
It's coming from a partner star, so no.
Also, possible change in orbital mechanics since the last occurrence
@@filonin2 When the partner star loses enough mass, less material will be available, so yes.
As I understand nova, they are not explosions in an orbiting accretion disk, but are explosions in an accreting layer, laying on the white dwarf or neutron star's surface. Once it gets deep and dense enough, it goes off, like a hollow hydrogen bomb.
Getting down with the scientific method!
👋👋👋👋👋Wonderful Anton!
Thank you Anton as been keeping a eye out for this & nights are getting colder here
Tnx.I was always confused about "September" prediction 🙄
Oh did your calculations not match up? 🙄🙄 you were so confused
The take-away? Don't look away and let's not all blink at the same time!
Great video Anton. When the weather permits, I try to observe the Corona Borealis constellation to document it by using binoculars and taking pictures. Hope to see TCrB soon... It would be a cool add to the photos collection.
Anton gets to the point and makes it interesting. Plus, I love subtle sarcasm. My wife is so intelligent but so liberal. Most of my witticisms boomerang. Keeps me humble.
It's funny to think that this long-awaited event has already occurred almost forty times due to how far away this system is from us.
Like ripples on the pond
Aww! I was waiting for this! It was a fun game even tho nobody won! 🌟
Love the description of a nova as "like a miniature supernova"!
There's no way this random star popping off was more anticipated than the total solar eclipse! 😂 but it would be nice to see this too
About thermonuclear explosion happening in the accretion disk. I highly doubt it, because the accretion disk is probably cooler and less dense than the outer atmosphere of the companion star, and it's clearly deeply below ignition point. I thought the ignition is expected to happen on the surface, where the accreted gas is confined there by the gravity pit of the small dense star.
Hi Anton. Do not apologize! Think of the various ends of the world predicted by many people there outside. 😂😂😂. ❤❤❤❤ luckly they were wrong😅😅 anyway, apologizing is always appreciable! ❤❤❤ love to you and your family wow! We know when your birthday is! ❤❤
I hope you get a new star for your birthday, Anton!
Best channel on RUclips
I'm still going with September 17th... My mother's birthday.
It would be nice if it happened in 2025 on that date because that will be her 80th 😀
(Mum, I got you a Nova for your B'Day) 😁
Thanks, Anton. You are my favourite science commentator. Bearing in mind that the Huygens probe in 2005 chose 14 January (my birthday) to land on Titan, I feel lucky. So I pick 14 January 2025 for this explosive celestial event. But a couple of days is a mere nothing in this universe, so I will consider us both winners if it happens anytime that week. 🙂
Cool find anton!!
Thanks!
Happy birthday Anton! We got you a slightly used nova. (Probably)
Thanks for my physics news today Anton!
Don't eat your own shoe, Anton. Besides being very unhygienic, it leaves you with just one shoe.
And then he'd be hopping mad.
Before you criticize a man, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, when you do criticize him, you'll be a mile away and you'll have his shoes.
Scientists now recommend eating one shoe per week to meet our recommended plastic and PFAs goals
Daniel Day Lewis might get jealous, if Anton eats his Left Foot...that would be off-side...
...and Anton KNOWS the Universe doesn't have a level playing field...
Thank you. I love your channel
i just know it will be cloudy out when it happens.
When Halleys Comet made it's last appearance in 1986, it rained for 3 weeks... so it does happen.
Three months later, I moved 1,000kms north to the warmer climes of my country.
Hello from New Zealand.
I was wondering what had happened to this! Thanks for the update. I'm still slightly unsure about exactly how bright this will be... will it be easy to find with the naked eye? I'm at least glad I've now had my cataract operation so I'll stand a better chance of actually seeing it in focus! My distance vision is so much better than it was a few days ago :)
Are you able to see Polaris? It's expected to be about that bright in our night skies for about a week.
@@johncopithorne6176 Thanks for the info! I'm not yet sure how well I can see stars, as I haven't had a clear sky yet - but I'll definitely remember that :)
Oh well ! Don’t worry Anton , time to head back to the board and recalculate the numbers .
Interesting topic
Greetings from the BIG SKY of Montana. A big bang that fizzles?
thanks for making this video man I was left on an absolute cliffhanger
Seems the sign saying the day before yesterday was the 2nd coming was also wrong. Predictions... can be hard
Once in a life line 🧬
I hear its brightness is dipping now. Perhaps action is eminent.
Me and anton share a birthday!! Less go
It has likely happened several times since we last observed it, the question is when the light from them will arrive where we can observe it.
Anton, I love the channel and recommend it to anyone I think might be interested. Is there any chance you'll cover the material contained in Luis Elizondo's book Imminent?
I had trouble believing the prediction for when this nova would occur in the first place. With so many unknowns it only stands to reason that a few atoms here or there could speed up or slow down when the explosion might occur. So for now it's just a question of it will happen when it happens.
this is absolutely a big deal, the pleasure of seeing a new blip that you know will disappear within a week i find to be fascinating
Love the videos but just find it ironic to say "we know exactly how they work" yet, they dont work according to how we thought, thus we dont know exactly how they work at all
ive had a google search alert sending emails to myself daily so i could see the exact night it was visible... its been driving me mad since your first video haha
LOVED this one!! ;)
Thanks Anton, it's scary that when you say 2025 that means I'm going to be SIXTY wow what happened, have a WONDERFUL weekend and PEACE AND LOVE TO EVERYONE ❤❤.
dont worry, it doesnt seem like the type of thing you can really predict, even if you have a ton of info. its a supernova, i don’t think they operate on human timescales. we’ll probably see it in our lifetime, and that’s enough for me!
I'm honestly hoping it holds off until February because it will be very low in the evening sky and/or morning sky for the next few months.
I can patiently wait ✋️
🙌 The comment at 04:48 min: MADE MY DAY! 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Hey Anton, we have the same birthday, Jan 16th. Except that mine is 1950! A fellow Capricorn...
It was written in the Stars...
Happy very belated birthday!🎉😅
Since its very far away the light might be getting interfered with as it transits to us. I think you will discover that light speed is actually variable and begins to slow down as it encounters dust etc.
Ok here it is. Thanks
Yeah, nature is a bit chaotic, isn't it?
But we shall see what happens.
Unfortunately from wollongong where I live Corona Borealis is starting to get hidden by mt Kiera
I’ve been waiting also. Took pics every few nights of that region… nothing…
We still can't accurately predict the path and impact of storms on our own planet, let alone much more complex ones in accretion discs thousands of lightyears away. Same can be said for volcanoes; we're getting better at understanding their behaviour, but there's still a lot of guess work and estimation in predicting when they'll erupt. Giving an approximate 2-year frame I think is still a pretty good achievement, and when it does finally explode, because it is being more closely observed, it will provide better data for understanding the indicators.
My theory? The dip is an ejection from the companion star - whether an CME results in a nova occurring depends on the dwarf capturing enough mass to trigger a nova.
It's just saving itself for your birthday.
I've been checking the sky a few times every night for months now. Kinda reminds me of going up on a hill overlooking my city for y2k and not even getting a flicker. At least I've gotten to see a bunch of meteors
Time is the greatest arbor
Everyday is once in a lifetime.
In 2005 I was looking at a star while waiting on daylight. I was on a turkey hunt approximately 5 am waiting to walk into my hunting area. As I was admiring it there was a bright flash and a halo. Then it was gone...pure visual magic.
I saw a very bright blinking star few minutes ago.
I live in india 🇮🇳
That was me down here in New Zealand trying to secretly communicate with your sister.
I won't tell you my address... and neither will she.
Go back to sleep.
I wouldn't say that it's expected to be one of the brightest stars in the night sky. At a peak of about +2 to +3 there will be around 100 or more stars considerably brighter. In even a small telescope it will be quite bright, but to the naked eye, not so much. Recurrent novae are notorious for not keeping an exact schedule too. A predicted time slot for the next appearance is kinda like the speed limit on a freeway; it's just a suggestion. LOL ! Thx for the update.
Well, considering there are about 5000 stars visible to the naked eye, if there are only about 100 stars brighter than it, that means that it is among the 2% of the brightest stars.
"Were astronomers wrong", a sentence asked in the introduction.
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No, they WERE not wrong, they ARE wrong. Stars don´t explode, but gets electromagnetically charged and cyclically relief discharges, just like our Sun.
One could say that the relief explodes out from the star. Terminology used by everyday folks + science terms + money = we laymen don't give too many shoots about the more descriptive verbs to explain a powerful outflow of energy.
I grew up reading Lord Byron's work. One could say, "The celestial bodies experience that which we humans experience. We all go through a metamorphosis, shedding our mortal coils, and our spirits are loosed upon the heavens, and we transverse this realm through energies unseen. As powerful as our passion exploding from our loins, the stars too explode their passions into the ether."
It is easy to forget that science always comes with error bars - which it is equally important to understand!
We're all wonderful people, so we're all still winners, Anton. 😄
Without a model, they’re just using a Farmer’s Almanac to predict the date
This study ws made by the man of science! ZA MAN OF science!
Star no boom. ☀️
I was expecting it and I'm sorry if that sounds ridiculous.
If the star can spin at 200km/s, but only orbit galactic core at 100km/s (avg), then it appears to be another wrench in cosmic expansion?
Galaxy velocity for CE are 47 or 67km/s (/CDM or or Ladder-Dist). We know 'frame dragging' is a thing with relativistic speeds; but are we not accounting for a 'frame friction/energy bleed-off'
If the star's angular/orbital velocity is higher than what it'd be from gravitational effects of SMBH at center (on its own), how long can that higher velocity be maintained? and 'what/where' is that energy converted once it is lost? (Friction, Collisions, Visc Dissipation, Conduction)...Whether you want to look at the kinetic energy -->thermal energy, and whether its at a subatomic scale or more macro...there'd be huge amounts of energy being dumped into the space around the star as it slow slows down.
Watch it go off the day after this is uploaded
Sounds like something my ex-girlfriend used to say to me...
Probably cloudy, the entire time... ☁️☁️☁️
Once... there was an explosion.
A bang that gave rise to life as we know it.