This is a Storm You Should Watch Closely
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 31 дек 2023
- 2024 is off with a fireworks show of its own, with multiple low pressure systems likely to race across the south before the BIG one begins to develop sometime around January 7th-8th. Shortly thereafter the eastern half of the country will be beneath powerful blizzard conditions with strong thunderstorms likely thanks to the enhanced warm sector that will be along the leading side of the cyclone center. Consider making preparations for your area now, especially in terms of strong winds, potential flooding, and power outages.
Good Forecast! Thank you, WxCN.
You are very welcome as always 😇
Happy New Year 🎉
Happy new year to you as well!
Glad you mentioned the low level jet, I tend to forget some expert stuff as a smaller RUclips. Unsubscribed from others recently but subscribed to your just now, nice job.
Critical factor when dealing with forecasting severe weather! Appreciate you watching and subbing, just did the same for your channel as well
@@WxCenterNazario Oh thanks so much!
Hey Nazzario, how much snow do you think Waynesboro VA will receive? Major difference in the predictions, from as little as 3 in and 18 in.
I’m seeing a lot of folks mentioning multiple feet of snow. Need to start digging into data, because I have a feeling some of these values will be very badly over-forecast
The GFS model have went hay wire for the potential northeast storm
Put all the snow South now over West Virginia, Virginia, Washington DC taking it completely out of New York and north we’ll see what happens
The euro is still consistent with a big northeast snow storm though it hasn’t really changed I like the Euro better for these type of scenarios
Euro has been doing okay so far this winter season. I trust gfs a bit more with baroclinic, net supported lows than I do with tropical cyclones. Gfs did well last big Gulf low we had develop down here. Run to run and model to model they’re meshing decently also
@@WxCenterNazario I’ve noticed over the course of the last several years the GFS has been more accurate with predicting snows in the Northeast and Midwest
I’m prepared to be disappointed
@@bonmam9511 wouldn’t say disappointed, but I think some of the values folks are describing/forecasting are going to be overestimated
@@WxCenterNazario i hope not I the Midwest and northeast needs a big snowstorm We haven’t had any in several years
And a little update the GFS is starting to trend back north aligning with the Euro
It was way south this morning
That third storm looks like the one. Tallahassee could be a great staging area for storm chasing.
Was thinking Tallahassee. Maybe even just a bit further west closer to Tyndall even
@@WxCenterNazario Marianna maybe.
Heck, you can set up in my driveway if you need to.
Though I’m worried about the 55 ft tall mimosa tree in my back yard.
@@CaerlaverockJaguar as we get closer we’ll do an even more in depth diagnosis of rainfall totals and surface winds. Already seeming pretty elevated based on preliminary data
Hi Nazario happy new year, ohh no I hate raining. I don't mind the cool air and windy! But rain ohhhhh no no. hey Nazario you sure drank a lot of caffeine lol, thank you for your updates. ❤❤
Happy new year! Lol Lord knows I need to back off the caffeine a little
@@WxCenterNazario Lol not really hey if it works for you that's good.
For my area in Western Maryland Allegany county I really think with the models we are going to get a really good snow storm Saturday into Saturday night . Then couple days later that huge dynamic system will give us snow to start changing into sleet and freezing rain. The cold air really dams up against the big higher mtns to the west of me and the Warm air moves over us aloft and even the warm area at surface from south and south east struggles to get up here during storms like this because of the high mtns south and south east of us as well Allegany county Maryland Washington county Maryland and Bedford county in Pa will really be situated in perfect area for big snow from wkend storm and then a bunch of mixtures of snow sleet freezing rain before going to all rain from the system after the wkend one .
We’ll be talking heavily throughout the week and monitoring model adjustments. Still a ways out but confidence is growing. Think the second storm this weekend has a great chance of bringing snow too
With the third storm on the ninth or the 10th. It has a spring like type of severe weather with it. And I know parts of the northeast could potentially gosh as high, 60 to 70 mph especially if convection is in cause it could be a screaming, southeastly wind
Yeah the gradient alone is going to be strong. The density of the cold air mass will also help add some acceleration to our surface/low level winds
Hello Nazario! The Spc is already considering putting a 15% soon as we get closer according to there summary for the January 8-10th system
I personally wouldn’t be surprised to be within a hatched area myself in Tallahassee. This reminds me of the Hosford tornado from last April.
That’s great news, getting official word out now. If not this weekend the following with this potential super storm will bring the severe risk
@@WxCenterNazario Nazario absolutely and have you seen the past couple runs of the gfs especially 18z it shows a lot of supercell composite
Looks like all three are going to miss Southwest Florida! Man I hope not. We do need the rain!
I don’t think it’ll miss Southwest Florida. Still time to watch what unfolds. Might see some crazy adjustments still since we’re about a week and some change away
@@WxCenterNazario I hope you’re right!
Second storm is going to be the storm for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast a good 6 in for New York City maybe some more if it trends a bit north.
Third system is a complete mess for the Mid-Atlantic it's going to be a Torcher.
This thing may go so far inland maybe till Western Pennsylvania, it's going to be all rain.
It's a typical cutter.
Happy New Year 🎊🎉
Happy new year!
Missouri here
Thank you for tuning in!
Euro showing south ga with some snow Wednesday?
Not sure about south GA, we’ll need to see if we can keep the cold layer over the state in place without getting mixed out
nah I don't believe that 3rd storm system is gonna to be that bad as the models are showing speaking for example the models were doing the same with the last storm system back in December even though it brought kinda of a severe weather outbreak to Dixie Alley it didn't panned out as the models had showed a few days early
so I'm not buying that 3rd storm system to be all that significant as the models are showing well at least not for us here in the Southeast as the models are showing
I have to disagree to an extent. Do I think some of our numbers are inflated? Yes. But we’ve yet to see this level of cold air come down from up north. That alone will be a significant driver in a lot of the weather that could occur. So bares closely watching