Asset Pricing and Sports Betting
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 7 июн 2024
- Tobias J. Moskowitz, the Fama Family Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, studies asset pricing, portfolio choice, risk sharing, market efficiency, real estate markets and finance, empirical corporate finance, and the business and analytics of sports. In this talk to MBA students, he examines the market for betting on major sporting events to see what lessons can be gleaned that might apply to the financial world.
If you experience technical difficulties with this video or would like to make an accessibility-related request, please send a message to bfi@uchicago.edu.
![TRASH or PASS! Eminem ( Houdini ) [REACTION!!!]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/cB1WrZcMwMc/mqdefault.jpg)
Great video, thank you very much!
Tobias , you are a valued asset with huge momentum
i watched this a couple times and just want to understand if i am correct, so the momentum factor causes assets to be over valued and has little predictibility on actual returns, which means shorting mometum assets are profitable? while value is the exact opposite and buying value assets are profitable?
"buying value assets are profitable" - IN THE LONG RUN.
*Shorting Momentum assets is what you infer. He hasn't emphasized on that either. I think it will come with a Fat Tail Risk.
for people who do not understand the literature. This guy is reasoning by analogy, so not deductive anyway
Baseball is the only game to bet for one very simple reason:It is the only game on which you can wager-in most cases-before knowledge out of the outcome of the previous game and what transpired in that game.
You have now learned more about sports betting than you have ever learned in entire life to this point.
I don't follow your logic, are you talking about games between the same teams?
Steve Veasey For the most part,yes,but even in games involving different teams there is still great value.In almost every game,one of the two teams is either on a one or two game losing or winning streak.In a sport in which the majority of the teams finish around.500 this fact is of great benefit.The same factors can show a great variety of results depending upon which game of the series is being considered.For much more,check with the baseball betting forum on covers.com,where I use my pen name of David Gurney.
Tom Dockery
Its just I don't follow your comment about 'It is the only game on which you can wager-in most cases-before knowledge out of the outcome of the previous game and what transpired in that game.' Considering that the betting lines are completely based on who the starting pitchers are why does it matter what happened in a game with different starters?
Steve Veasey There is an existing ebb and flow in a game in which most of the teams wind up the season around .500.Generally,teams need to be favored by much more in the third game of a series than they were in the first two games-if they were at all- if they're attempting a sweep.Last year,by betting against all home teams going for a 3 game sweep,you would have won 13 units on the year.A few more rules could greatly increase profits.Don't worry about pitchers as it all evens out.Let the linemaker do that work.Your job,so to speak,is to handicap him.I gotta go check another angle over the next 6 hours.so long.
who is the genius with the camera?
Tobias mentions in his speech that the results are independent of each other. I would argue that this is a false statement. The results of one game highly effect the results of the next on two separate psychological planes. A loss affects a team's psychology. A playoff bound team has the heart of a lion and takes losses very personally. For example, look at how many times the New England Patriots (NFL) have lost 2 games in a row in the last 10 years. It is a very rare occurrence. Now contrast that with a team like the Jacksonville Jaguars who are awful and they know it. A team like this will lose several in a row. However, since they know they have absolutely no shot of making the playoffs their psychology changes when playing a playoff bound team. That game becomes more meaningful for them. The spreads are usually very large in favor of the favorite team and the underdog plays the game much harder and usually covers the spread.
The second plane is the psychology of the public. The public inherently likes to follow the favorites. This pushes the spreads until they get burned. They then back off and the bookies must lower the spreads to get them to back them again. This causes bubble patterns. They are so fast most of the time that they can not be recognized for what they are, but every once in a while a team comes along that demonstrates this idea perfectly. Look at the 2007 Patriots and you will witness the perfect bubble. The team was crushing all opponents early in the season. The public jumped on the bandwagon and were rewarded during the first half of the season. With each consecutive win the spreads got larger. Meanwhile the other teams are working diligently to figure out how to bring this juggernaut down. The bubble officially burst in week 12 when they face the Eagles as -24 point favorites. They only won by 3. The Giants get the credit for finally taking them down in the Superbowl, but it was the Eagles that cracked the code and laid out the model that all other teams would follow to try and beat them. The public was very slow to back off from the Patriots so the point spread were slow to come down. The results against the spread were that the Patriots only covered one more game for the rest of the season. These results were hardly independent from each other. They were highly correlated. The psychology of the teams and the public being slow to react created the perfect bubble.
I posit that this is not an anomaly but actually how the spreads and odds operate. They depend on these bubbles to maintain balance between favorites and underdogs. The belief that these are independent trials like spinning a roulette wheel or rolling dice is completely false. They are the exact opposite... ...highly correlated.
the greatest info that ive had was with the Magic Matcher Tactic (i found it on google) without a doubt the most helpful treatment that I have ever followed.
you are so wrong.
If it were that simple why does just 1% win? lol
Mysteries And Thoughts I’m here asking the same question too . why just a small portion of bettors win .
Chews the cud too much... but interesting stuff :-)
ivory tower speech?
+Trade Esportivo Para Todos the best results that ive had was with the Simple Sports Goldmine (just google it) without a doubt the no.1 remedy i've tried.
It's not that difficult..
Wait for an advantage.
He makes an egregious error in saying that spreads and moneylines are uncorrelated to totals.
Angel 〉 CLICK HERE 〈
I don't understand this video. but I can pick winners, so I don't need to. The great Dane.
There are a few components to betting systems. One resource I found which successfully combines these is the Simple Sports Goldmine (google it if you're interested) definately the most helpful system that I have ever heard of.Check out all the interesting information .
Nothing liked being introduced by colleague and same ethnic background.