#27: A History of the Near Future: What history tells us about our Age of Discord
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- Опубликовано: 20 сен 2024
- By Prof. Peter Turchin (Complexity Science Hub Vienna, and University of Connecticut)
Abstract: Social and political turbulence in the United States and a number of European countries has been rising in recent years. My research, which combines analysis of historical data with the tools of complexity science, has identified the deep structural forces that work to undermine societal stability and resilience to internal and external shocks. Here I look beneath the surface of day-to-day contentious politics and social unrest, and focus on the negative social and economic trends that explain our current “Age of Discord.”
Finally I found a comprehensive explanation to the processes I have been observing over the last decade or so.
It's scary how right he is. 2020
💯
yup 2023 and its the collapse
I have a 20 minute video on this book,on my channel, which is perhaps slightly easy to digest if you would like to get into these ideas.
the sound is awful
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The sound quality makes his accent unintelligible.
In response to your feedback, our board have agreed to update our audio/visual system. Hopefully things will be improved with the new system.
Subtitles suffice
@@centreforcomplexsystemsstu6802 just put a noise-cancelling mic on the speaker's lapel.
The mic you have is probably the camera's inbuilt mic, therefore at the back of the room on the camera, and is picking up every rustle and movement in the room.
Sounds like the recorded sound is coming from the camera's built-in mic.
Which is therefore at the back.
Probably not noise cancelling.
Picking up every rustle and fidget in the whole room.
Leviticus 25:10 "And ye shall hallow the fiftieth year, and proclaim liberty throughout all the land unto all the inhabitants thereof: ... ."
It is said that one can only keep one or two facts out of any given unit of educational material. The one fact that will stick with me is that general well-being and elite overproduction are two negatively correlated trends. Just one criticism: Doesn't the open ending of the crisis devalue any claim of the like that there will be a civil war or anything similarly concrete beyond unrest ?
Anyone claiming to know how it will turn out, unless they plan to instigate something like a civil war themselves, is making a large leap in logic. Turchin is proposing a broad historical trend and suggesting that the US is entering a crisis period of some description, little more. Random bumps in the winding road of history will dictate whether the car briefly flirts with going off road only to safely return, or is sent flying over a cliff
@@JG-vh6oy That sounds about right to me.
still right in 2021