Here is the intrinsic value excel template - have fun and you can immediately use it as you watch the video: svencarlin.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/INTRINSIC-VALUE-CALCULATION-FORMULA-SVEN-CARLIN-2.xlsx
Thank you very much Sven. Do you have something similar to evaluate junior gold mining companies/ Exploration gold companies? It could be intresting a video about that type of valuation.
Thank you so much, Sven. I've been following your channel for two weeks and I I really appreciate your work. This is the best value investing RUclips channel, especially for non-native English speaker viewers. Greetings from Hungary :)
In case it helps anyone else, I copied the spreadsheet to google sheets and then used the googlefiance operations =googlefinance(A4, "eps") where A4 is the ticker symbol. I then found a list of the russel 1000 and copied it into column A. I used Sven's operations and then had it compare the price today =googlefinance(A4, "price") with the green cell in Sven's spreadsheet (present value sum) then made another column where it divides that cell by the price today. You can do conditional formating in google sheets (under the format tab) and make it color the cell green if it is over 100%. Googlesheets will update each time you open it and run the operations, then you can scroll through and see if anything is showing up as green.
Does this mean you have (/had) to make your own estimates for growth rates and terminal multiple, each times three, for the best, worst and normal cases, for each of those 1000 companies? Or did you (/can-one), do that in a formulaic way? Like taking a mean or median of past growth rates, and then x0.75/x1.5.. Not sure off the top of my head how one might estimate terminal multiple, in a similar way however.
Hi Sven, after trying to learn about the stock market for a year now, I have to say you are providing a great value and information. Greatly appreciated :)
Fantastic video introducing the aspects and factors of a DCF model. I believe the discount rate is the most challenging aspect of a DCF model. Cost of equity or WACC may be used if you are doing FCFE or FCFF. May you do a video about discount rates and real methods used in the industry and by some of the best valuation thinkers out there?
I have watched a lot of videos on how to calculate the intrinsic value of a scrip. None as well as explained by Sven. I feel confident for the first time about using this approach....
This model has a lot of shortcomings. It depends too much on the assumptions that you put in it. You could see how the "intrinsic value" of a company varies depending on the numbers you use. You can have discount rate from 1-20% (nobody knows what's the right discount rate as Sven pointed out), growth from 0-50% (how can you tell the future of a company for 10 years ahead and even be so "smart" to know what the growth is going to be), possibilities of several scenarios from 0-100% (how you get those probabilities? Just out of the head?) and so on. And the value of the company is therefore somewhere between 0 and 15.000. Good luck using this approach.
@@pankajverma8080 Yes Pankaj, the Discount rate is the actual returns what the investor expects from that particular investment. Warren used to use 15% as expected returns in a business ...
OMG thanks Sven I was just reading your book and I was confused on the insintric value part and I was thinking in my head I wish he made a video on this, YES!
Thank you for your content! You've provided a great introduction for your audience to get more pragmatic instead of just studying the markets and valuation methods. I would really appriciate more content like this, as seeing how you approach your research within Excel, would add huge value to my own investment analysis. I am at a stage where I actively read 10Ks and 10Qs to understand the company, its opportunities and its risks but am unsure how to take my research to the next level and begin modelling and documenting the research myself. I do however i appreciate this may be proprietary research or outside the scope of your audience. Thanks again Sven, and Merry Christmas!
Hi Sven I am a new follower thanks for all the work you put in. However there is something I don't understand. In the example you seem to be using :EPS but the input cell is labeled cash flow! How can that be interchangeable? Would you not need a different multiple for basing your calculation between EPS and Free Cash Flow? - I don't understand how you can just type in seemingly random values and get a uniform output! I have even seen you inputting the dividend (from your example of Unilever) In case you see this post and you feel like giving a thorough reply, I would love a video where you go through the same company using different input values (EPS, FCF, dividend, ETC) and then explain why a certain method is best and why the results are different and how use the result, Or maybe you already made a video like that, Then I would appreciate anyone reading this much post a link.
Hi Sven, what is your recommendation on chosing which stock multiples to use for calculating intrinsic value for a stock? e.g. Amazon, as far as I heard, it's more reasonable to use Operating Cash Flow (and similarly for BABA, MELI, etc.), but if we take stocks like Ahold or Acomo or Rubis, what would be the logic? Do we look at all the aspects (e.g. earnings, FCF, Operating Cash Flow) and compare the results or is there a way one could better identified which metric to pickup?
Thank you very much for this method, this will definitely help me to improve my investments! If we do this fundamental analysis every time before buying stocks, our long term yields would improve considerably and consistently
Great stuff Sven as always, by chance do you have a video on how to value growth/unprofitable companies yet ? that would help a lot and many people would like it also I think
@@Value-Investing got it, fair and square ... just wondering how can one put that into an excel and do some basic modelling with it ? :P that would be very nice :)
Thank you very much. Do you think that I should calculate the discount rate a little bit higher than 8% in such times like nowadays with high interest rate? somewhat formula of: discount rate= 8%+(interest Rate) Hence today my discount rate will be 13%? (8%+5% interest rate)
Just a question. Should you count the present value of future earnings, if they are fully reinvested to fuel growth? My impression is you are counting them twice. Thanks!
I watched the video some month ago and I clicked the "like" button. Now I just finished to watch the video again. I 'd like push the "like" button again, but I can't
Dear Sven, in my opinion you have mistake in Excel file. Cells: J18, K18, L18, M18 have connection to cell O12, but correct calculation is into the cell O18. Thank you for production of videos on youtube.
Thanks for sharing this. You are doing a great service by empowering common people to take control of thier financial destiny with reliable and honest information that's so hard to find . Everyone interested in growing thier wealth should follow this channel
Sven your material is fantastic. I am a big fan of your RUclips channel and a few weeks ago I bought your book "Modern Value Investing" and I have loved it as well. Thank you for all the value you provide us!
Hey Sven, if I put the same numbers out of the Amazon sheet in the input cells in the empty sheet (2) in your latest excel file I get a different stock price. What’s the difference on these two sheets? Is the empty sheet the one to use?
Mr Sven Carlin, I have a question. For terminal multiple, what should be the best number and how to decide it. And can we use the PE ratio as the terminal multiple ? Please reply.
nice video ,thanks for your wonderful work sir, I have a question though regarding the intrinsic value calculator ,is the final intrinsic value in euros? dollars coz it says euros but input is in dollars.thanks
OK, Terminal multiple is the P/E ratio, but the result, the Present value sum/Intrinsic value, is the stock price or the market cap? AT&T is confusing me... Very useful and valuable spreadsheet and info, thank you very much! Will be using it to compare results with other methods and calculations to be even more sure of getting a good return.
Hey Sven! Thanks for the video, the file and the efforts!! One of the best value investing videos I have seen!! I have a question regarding the calculation file. I am looking into the file and I see you multiply year2029 earning by PE. I was expecting 2030 to be multiplied by PE as we are discounting for 10 years. Can you explain why? Also I put the exact same values in the spreadsheet (you made available) and noticed cell N 7 has a different value than the video maybe you adjusted but can you tell me if any tweeks are needed? I am welcoming everybody's input on this
Hi Sven, I have just gotten to know you and I am browsing through your immense video library. Thank you for your commitment and professionality! There is something I really cannot find an explanation for and I must ask you: in this video you show AMZN stock trading for over 3.000 USD in 2020...but how is that possible? The stock never went above 200 USD! There probably is an obvious explanation and I'm making a fool of myself, still... can you help? Thanks :)
Can you please explain more terminal multiple , you mean probably P/E how do you guess it? Right now amazon has 90 so u divided that by 2 to get the best scenario and work of that?
@@Value-Investing what if I calculate terminal value by dividing the last cash flow forecast by the difference between the discount rate and terminal growth rate. Whereas the terminal growth rate is still an estimation but that will be conservative (more like the growth rate in the worst case scenario) to use that as a margin of safety ?
Thank you Sven, this has great value!! interesting to have multiple scenarios associated to probabilities. Buffett says he's targeting the 8-10% return if I am not mistaken. It all depends on what is your margin of safety and therefore the worst case scenario is really important :)
Thanks Sven, terrific video and excel template!! Had a question - I thought for discounted cash flows, you typically take "free cash flow" as the starting point. Does taking an earnings-based number like EPS (instead of free cash flow) affect the accuracy?
As you give you shall receive. Knowledge packed investing analysis for the mass as me who are looking for the method for fishing in the ocean of stock. May God bless you sir!
Here is the intrinsic value excel template - have fun and you can immediately use it as you watch the video: svencarlin.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/INTRINSIC-VALUE-CALCULATION-FORMULA-SVEN-CARLIN-2.xlsx
thanks very much
Thanks you so much for this. I earlier rested my efforts to make my own spreadsheet a while ago.
Thank you very much Sven. Do you have something similar to evaluate junior gold mining companies/ Exploration gold companies? It could be intresting a video about that type of valuation.
Thank you so much, Sven. I've been following your channel for two weeks and I I really appreciate your work. This is the best value investing RUclips channel, especially for non-native English speaker viewers. Greetings from Hungary :)
Hi Sven spreadsheet is in EUR, is this same for dollars as well or do we have to convert it from the intrinsic value number we get.
In case it helps anyone else, I copied the spreadsheet to google sheets and then used the googlefiance operations =googlefinance(A4, "eps") where A4 is the ticker symbol. I then found a list of the russel 1000 and copied it into column A. I used Sven's operations and then had it compare the price today =googlefinance(A4, "price") with the green cell in Sven's spreadsheet (present value sum) then made another column where it divides that cell by the price today. You can do conditional formating in google sheets (under the format tab) and make it color the cell green if it is over 100%. Googlesheets will update each time you open it and run the operations, then you can scroll through and see if anything is showing up as green.
Could you give a link to download this sheet? I would greatly appreciate it
Does this mean you have (/had) to make your own estimates for growth rates and terminal multiple, each times three, for the best, worst and normal cases, for each of those 1000 companies? Or did you (/can-one), do that in a formulaic way? Like taking a mean or median of past growth rates, and then x0.75/x1.5.. Not sure off the top of my head how one might estimate terminal multiple, in a similar way however.
Could you give a link to download this sheet?
Been following you for a year now and I have to say that the content you provide is hands down the best. Thanks Sven!
thank, really nice to hear!
For this video I have been waiting 2.5 years druze moj... I have put mean while my own spreadsheet... I can send it to you...
You just moved your channel a notch above the competition.
Hi Sven, after trying to learn about the stock market for a year now, I have to say you are providing a great value and information. Greatly appreciated :)
This is crazy value you're giving here, thank you. Merry Christmas
Exactly what I’ve been looking for lately. Getting more into the actual numbers of understanding value investing.
This is the best value investing channel. I work as an analyst for a Investment Bank and get value here
I hope people realize and appreciate the level of education they're getting from you Sven. Cheers to you!
He is one of the bests!
thanks Sven again!
Thanks for all the value delivered over the years, for sure hard work to prepair , really helpful!
Glad it was helpful!
Amazing video, very helpful and useful!!!
Thank you very very much!!!!!!!!!!!
Super educational and amazing video!
Fantastic video introducing the aspects and factors of a DCF model. I believe the discount rate is the most challenging aspect of a DCF model. Cost of equity or WACC may be used if you are doing FCFE or FCFF. May you do a video about discount rates and real methods used in the industry and by some of the best valuation thinkers out there?
I have watched a lot of videos on how to calculate the intrinsic value of a scrip. None as well as explained by Sven. I feel confident for the first time about using this approach....
thanks!
This model has a lot of shortcomings. It depends too much on the assumptions that you put in it. You could see how the "intrinsic value" of a company varies depending on the numbers you use. You can have discount rate from 1-20% (nobody knows what's the right discount rate as Sven pointed out), growth from 0-50% (how can you tell the future of a company for 10 years ahead and even be so "smart" to know what the growth is going to be), possibilities of several scenarios from 0-100% (how you get those probabilities? Just out of the head?) and so on. And the value of the company is therefore somewhere between 0 and 15.000. Good luck using this approach.
jebote Ziga, sad se ti najdes mi solit pamet :-))))) pa sve u investiranju je asumpcija!!! Kad prodje korona ceka te kava v Radovljici!!!!
@@Value-Investing
Sven, nadam se da ću se vidjeti uskoro i da si se več naučio nešto slovenski :) Jedan tvojih prvih 500 subscrajberov! Ciao!
Best Channel on RUclips
Damn this is amazing. You are doing this stuff for free. You need a patreon. Thank you for doing this for us.
thanks
@@Value-Investing Was that 8% your expected return on the investment??? Plz clarify
@@pankajverma8080 It will be 8% annualized
@@Value-Investing You are the best Sven
@@pankajverma8080 Yes Pankaj, the Discount rate is the actual returns what the investor expects from that particular investment. Warren used to use 15% as expected returns in a business ...
This video has a tremendous intrinsic value! Thank you for all your work, it's really teaching me how to explore the world of investing.
My pleasure!
I like how you point and say Warren
hehe!
Excelent work!
I am really happy to have this tool
Its going to help my investmente decisions.
happy to hear that!
Grande Sven! Adoro quando fai le interviste con Domenico in Italiano!
Contenuti da Top RUclipsr!
Great video, thanks. FYI: Your spreadsheet Scenario 3 is wrong from 2027 as those cells grow by 20% (best case scenario) and not by 12%.
Seems excellent. Thank you. I subscribed.
Thanks for the sub!
Amazing video as always! The only RUclips channel i found so far with substance. Puno hvala!
hvala!
Amazing video 🔥🔥 Very well explained
Thank you 🙌
Someone who is actually specialized in the field sharing knowledge to the green.... he is for real !
thanks!
OMG thanks Sven I was just reading your book and I was confused on the insintric value part and I was thinking in my head I wish he made a video on this, YES!
:-)
Thank you for the value you add to this world.
Simply fabulous! Thanks for sharing your knowledge with mortal people like me.
Grande Sven... Video di grande value...
grazie!
Thank you for your content! You've provided a great introduction for your audience to get more pragmatic instead of just studying the markets and valuation methods. I would really appriciate more content like this, as seeing how you approach your research within Excel, would add huge value to my own investment analysis.
I am at a stage where I actively read 10Ks and 10Qs to understand the company, its opportunities and its risks but am unsure how to take my research to the next level and begin modelling and documenting the research myself. I do however i appreciate this may be proprietary research or outside the scope of your audience.
Thanks again Sven, and Merry Christmas!
thanks, will focus more on this as I am getting bored of just entertainment.
Great video. Thank you !
Hi Sven I am a new follower thanks for all the work you put in. However there is something I don't understand.
In the example you seem to be using :EPS but the input cell is labeled cash flow! How can that be interchangeable?
Would you not need a different multiple for basing your calculation between EPS and Free Cash Flow?
- I don't understand how you can just type in seemingly random values and get a uniform output!
I have even seen you inputting the dividend (from your example of Unilever)
In case you see this post and you feel like giving a thorough reply, I would love a video where you go through the same company using different input values (EPS, FCF, dividend, ETC) and then explain why a certain method is best and why the results are different and how use the result,
Or maybe you already made a video like that, Then I would appreciate anyone reading this much post a link.
So hard to find this kind of quality investing info, not get rich quick schemes
thanks!
I actually listened to info about your course. Maybe first finance/stock youtuber that has made me interested
Hi Sven, what is your recommendation on chosing which stock multiples to use for calculating intrinsic value for a stock? e.g. Amazon, as far as I heard, it's more reasonable to use Operating Cash Flow (and similarly for BABA, MELI, etc.), but if we take stocks like Ahold or Acomo or Rubis, what would be the logic? Do we look at all the aspects (e.g. earnings, FCF, Operating Cash Flow) and compare the results or is there a way one could better identified which metric to pickup?
Thank you very much for this method, this will definitely help me to improve my investments! If we do this fundamental analysis every time before buying stocks, our long term yields would improve considerably and consistently
Glad it was helpful!
HI SVEN. FROM WHERE YOU TAKE THIS TERMINAL MULTIPLE? WHAT IT IS THAT INDICATOR ? FIRST TIME I HEARD ABOUT THAT. BEST INVESTING RUclipsR.
hi, thanks, here is the explanation: ruclips.net/video/QMk-F_XwoDY/видео.html
Fantastic, thank you very much for the free calculator Sven!
Thank you! It is very useful for me.
Glad to hear that!
Amazing content Sven! You are a great teacher. Buying your book for sure. Cheers.
Awesome, thank you!
Now I have to calculate the present value of the discounted returns I will make because of this video. I say a fair terminal multiple is infinity :).
Great stuff Sven as always, by chance do you have a video on how to value growth/unprofitable companies yet ? that would help a lot and many people would like it also I think
one day those should be profitable - so it is about potential earnings and the chance of hitting those
@@Value-Investing got it, fair and square ... just wondering how can one put that into an excel and do some basic modelling with it ? :P that would be very nice :)
Thank you very much. Do you think that I should calculate the discount rate a little bit higher than 8% in such times like nowadays with high interest rate? somewhat formula of: discount rate= 8%+(interest Rate)
Hence today my discount rate will be 13%? (8%+5% interest rate)
Just a question. Should you count the present value of future earnings, if they are fully reinvested to fuel growth? My impression is you are counting them twice.
Thanks!
no, if you calculate the growth, then not!
thank you for the template and the great explanation.. how do you come up with the terminal multiple??
again an estimation, the lower the better!
I watched the video some month ago and I clicked the "like" button.
Now I just finished to watch the video again. I 'd like push the "like" button again, but I can't
thanks!
Dear Sven, in my opinion you have mistake in Excel file. Cells: J18, K18, L18, M18 have connection to cell O12, but correct calculation is into the cell O18. Thank you for production of videos on youtube.
corrected, thanks!
Thanks for sharing this. You are doing a great service by empowering common people to take control of thier financial destiny with reliable and honest information that's so hard to find . Everyone interested in growing thier wealth should follow this channel
I appreciate that!
Merry Christmas Sven! Thanks for sharing!
Sven your material is fantastic. I am a big fan of your RUclips channel and a few weeks ago I bought your book "Modern Value Investing" and I have loved it as well. Thank you for all the value you provide us!
Thanks! Great to hear!
Hi sven,
Could you please explain me how to get a relatively accurate terminal value?
Thank you in advance!
P.S: I love your content, keep going!!
that is impossible :-). but here you go ruclips.net/video/QMk-F_XwoDY/видео.html
this video is great!
very good explanation and easy to understand. Tomorrow more practice thank you ❤️️
Sven, important part of the model is number of years used, why exactly then? Shortening the period to 5 - value would be always much higher
nope, it is the same. It is the discounted value at a future date!
Great video Sven, btw you and Warren make a great team ;)
Thanks Sven for demystifying intrinsic value! Also, very interesting high level analysis on BABA.
Hey Sven, if I put the same numbers out of the Amazon sheet in the input cells in the empty sheet (2) in your latest excel file I get a different stock price. What’s the difference on these two sheets? Is the empty sheet the one to use?
Good content and thanks for the template!
Great video Sven! Thanks for sharing. Happy Holidays 🎄
So helpful! This is the legitimate knowledge any stock buyers should know....too bad many are still driven by surface price.
love all your videos!! But a question why do you use EPS and not FCF? I thought companies could bend it a little ?
Thanks you! It is a great video!!!
Great Video!!!
😀😀😀
Great video.
Thanks!
Very cool stuff Sven can't wait to play around with the template provided. Kudos.
Have fun!
Thank you for making this. It's going to help a lot of people. Great video
happy to hear that
Mr Sven Carlin, I have a question.
For terminal multiple, what should be the best number and how to decide it.
And can we use the PE ratio as the terminal multiple ?
Please reply.
ruclips.net/video/QMk-F_XwoDY/видео.html
Awesome video! I don't understand how the terminal multiple number is calculated. Can someone explain?
ruclips.net/video/QMk-F_XwoDY/видео.html
@@Value-Investing Thanks Sven!
Thanks, I have been try finding the answer to this question so long. And you make it so clear and easy to understand. Thanks
Glad it was helpful!
sven you're by far the best financial channel on youtube. thanks for all the value !!
Wow, thanks!
@@Value-Investing Where did you calculate the number of stocks each company has ?
Sven, Can you please show me how to calculate the Terminal Multiple? How can you get 30 for amazon?
you estimate! The lower you go the better
@@Value-Investing how would you estimate it? Based on its EPS, Revenue, Growth?
Thanks a lot
Спасибо!
Это 800-ый комментарий)
thanks
Hi, do you offer option trading classes on your website?
no, not for now
nice video ,thanks for your wonderful work sir, I have a question though regarding the intrinsic value calculator ,is the final intrinsic value in euros? dollars coz it says euros but input is in dollars.thanks
depends on the input :-)
One of your best Vedios, thanks 👌🏻
So much "value" for value investors. Thank you Sven. Great Job.
You're welcome
OK, Terminal multiple is the P/E ratio, but the result, the Present value sum/Intrinsic value, is the stock price or the market cap? AT&T is confusing me...
Very useful and valuable spreadsheet and info, thank you very much! Will be using it to compare results with other methods and calculations to be even more sure of getting a good return.
depends on what you put into the formula / if net income, then look at market cap, if EPS, then look at stock price, so simple!
@@Value-Investing I put free cash flow in billions... Isn't that what's supposed to be used? :s Thank you!
Must have read my mind, was researching AMZN this morning.
Amazing video Sven
Thanks!
Hey Sven! Thanks for the video, the file and the efforts!! One of the best value investing videos I have seen!! I have a question regarding the calculation file. I am looking into the file and I see you multiply year2029 earning by PE. I was expecting 2030 to be multiplied by PE as we are discounting for 10 years. Can you explain why? Also I put the exact same values in the spreadsheet (you made available) and noticed cell N 7 has a different value than the video maybe you adjusted but can you tell me if any tweeks are needed?
I am welcoming everybody's input on this
God it’s unbelievable how hard it is to find stuff like this. Everyone just wants to speculate.
thanks! that is what it makes easier to invest
Great Video Sven one of your best definitely in my top 10 Sven Carlin videos!!!!!!!!
Wow, thanks!
This is free. Thank You g 🙌🏿
How does probability work and what does "Part" mean?
Hi Sven, I have just gotten to know you and I am browsing through your immense video library. Thank you for your commitment and professionality!
There is something I really cannot find an explanation for and I must ask you: in this video you show AMZN stock trading for over 3.000 USD in 2020...but how is that possible? The stock never went above 200 USD! There probably is an obvious explanation and I'm making a fool of myself, still... can you help? Thanks :)
i don't understand aswell
AMZN did a split probably 4 months after you already figured it out if you didnt just search it online.
Thank you for the Discounted Cash Flow Excel Sheet! You are one of my favorite Value Investors on RUclips! Happy Holidays!
Happy holidays!
Can you please explain more terminal multiple , you mean probably P/E how do you guess it? Right now amazon has 90 so u divided that by 2 to get the best scenario and work of that?
impossible to explain, you try to be conservative for a margin of safety and that is it :-( unfortunately it is just an estimation.
@@Value-Investing what if I calculate terminal value by dividing the last cash flow forecast by the difference between the discount rate and terminal growth rate. Whereas the terminal growth rate is still an estimation but that will be conservative (more like the growth rate in the worst case scenario) to use that as a margin of safety ?
Thank you so much for this, very nice introduction into the topic.
Glad it was helpful!
Support the your chanel always prof
Brilliant! I’ve heard a lot about DCF and heard Buffett’s definition many times but never really understood it until now. Thanks Sven!
Glad it was helpful!
thank you once again from malaysia
So the terminal multiple basically means how much the company will grow (revenue) if it hits the terminal value?
no, here is a better explanation ruclips.net/video/QMk-F_XwoDY/видео.html
Ok thank you. @@Value-Investing
Hello! Can we use this for non profitable companies? Like companies that are growing?
will be discussed in next video!
Thanks for the content!! But is it alright to sum up discounted future earnings? Dont practioners sum up discounted future cashflows ?
good eye, that was just an example, I only discount dividends!
Ghot
Thank you Sven, this has great value!! interesting to have multiple scenarios associated to probabilities. Buffett says he's targeting the 8-10% return if I am not mistaken. It all depends on what is your margin of safety and therefore the worst case scenario is really important :)
Thanks Sven, terrific video and excel template!!
Had a question - I thought for discounted cash flows, you typically take "free cash flow" as the starting point. Does taking an earnings-based number like EPS (instead of free cash flow) affect the accuracy?
I use different things depending on the company, but the results should be similar always!
@@Value-Investing What if the company is cooking? They can't cook cash flow.
As you give you shall receive. Knowledge packed investing analysis for the mass as me who are looking for the method for fishing in the ocean of stock. May God bless you sir!
Much appreciated!