Universa's Bernoulli for Portfolio Simulation: Correcting the Empirical Distribution

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  • Опубликовано: 8 ноя 2024

Комментарии • 49

  • @atunesafari
    @atunesafari Месяц назад +34

    Is the Bernoulli platform available for public licensing / use ?

  • @tudor8963
    @tudor8963 Месяц назад +7

    Nassim, thank you for sharing this. It is lovely to see you surrounded by people you don't feel the need to argue with haha. Wish you and universa investments and analytics the best

  • @Senecamarcus
    @Senecamarcus Месяц назад +3

    Thank you for sharing this video. It’s always a pleasure to listen to your talks!

  • @zakwhite5159
    @zakwhite5159 Месяц назад +2

    Man the hardest thing about this is actually managing a tail risk hedging.
    I've listened to just about everything Mark and Nassim have put out on the subject, over and over the refrain is "everyone is doing it wrong we are doing it right, but don't try and do it"
    😢

  • @chamber3593
    @chamber3593 Месяц назад +21

    Not even a minute and disagreement begin 😂😂 ❤❤

  • @ljragsandfeathers
    @ljragsandfeathers Месяц назад +2

    I missed you, Nassim. Thanks for the sanity

  • @ooidstudio6517
    @ooidstudio6517 Месяц назад

    Thanks for the share, looking forward to seeing Universa institute in the future!

  • @kevinomondi1084
    @kevinomondi1084 28 дней назад

    Great show guys. You guys are a true inspiration. Can we bring back the Quant finance lectures please

  • @joemillson4625
    @joemillson4625 Месяц назад

    Thank you both. This looks interesting. We should meet at my local, Mulligans in Manchester, UK. Minimal downside, upside is infinite - depending on the guitarist.

  • @nicolaslafortezza6403
    @nicolaslafortezza6403 Месяц назад +3

    Merci pour votre intervention. Si dans un deuxième temps, vous pouvez faire traduire la vidéo, je vous remercie, et vous avez bonne mine monsieur Taleb, c’est sûrement le vélo Velo , bonne soirée à tous à bientôt ❤

  • @jamesmarsh4047
    @jamesmarsh4047 Месяц назад +2

    Security market line, cml line, portfolio possibility curve all still used to gauge risk and return

  • @pedromacedo6202
    @pedromacedo6202 Месяц назад +3

    Thanks for sharing Nassim😍😍

  • @gkttlr1066
    @gkttlr1066 Месяц назад +3

    I just finished The Dao of Capital and Safe Haven. Was starting to play with this in Python. So excited about this tool.
    No link though. How can I access this tool.

  • @johndavidkromkowski816
    @johndavidkromkowski816 Месяц назад +4

    What about Buffon proposed solution to St. Petersburg problem. A risk which is smaller than your risk of dying today can be morally ignored? As aphorism: "Dying is worse than going broke."
    Lucretius' swerve is the black swan? (Philosophic description)
    The black (or white) swan is point beyond Shewhart's and Deming's UCL and LCL? (Empirically derived not from "theory")

  • @backtoemocovers
    @backtoemocovers Месяц назад +3

    More videos like this please

  • @AK-hf3pf
    @AK-hf3pf Месяц назад +1

    Taleb seems very chill here.

  • @SS-kg8rj
    @SS-kg8rj Месяц назад +1

    what about counterparty risk... how would SPX long puts have worked in 1929?

  • @alex-craft
    @alex-craft Месяц назад +1

    Hmmm, I would say utility is more important than grewth. Spending say 200k in 30-40 on travel, having fun etc. could be better than having 1m in 60s. Also, theres a big if, if it will turn in 1m, and if person will be still alive in 60s.

  • @cplisi
    @cplisi Месяц назад +1

    great edits

  • @greenyrocks4
    @greenyrocks4 Месяц назад +1

    When is the service live?

  • @ljragsandfeathers
    @ljragsandfeathers Месяц назад

    I think the Lucretius comment was from Antifragile, no?

  • @nicolaslafortezza6403
    @nicolaslafortezza6403 Месяц назад +3

    Bonjour en français ?

  • @pankajpatel8490
    @pankajpatel8490 Месяц назад

    At 1:03 the look that Taleb gave....lol

  • @themowgli123
    @themowgli123 Месяц назад +2

    Does anyone else think Brandon wanted to punch NN at some point.

  • @tungcaveusd
    @tungcaveusd Месяц назад

    Brandon is good-looking!

  • @skeptickhan637
    @skeptickhan637 Месяц назад +4

    Taleb seems to have lost weight. I hope it was intentional

  • @behrad9712
    @behrad9712 Месяц назад

    Amazing!🙂👌

  • @AlvinaManley
    @AlvinaManley Месяц назад

    aistockadvisor AI fixes this (AI Stock Advisor). "Empirical distribution hides real tails."

  • @stpOwner
    @stpOwner Месяц назад

    Same namesake as the fluid mechanics equation?

  • @edsonscience
    @edsonscience Месяц назад

    I would like to work for Universa, but no answer when sent my CV. I hope you don't think I support fragilistas hahaha

  • @KennanArmstrong
    @KennanArmstrong Месяц назад

    1942 Andrew Heights

  • @totopika
    @totopika Месяц назад

    タレブ!!シェアしてくれてありがとう!!愛してる!!

    • @tungcaveusd
      @tungcaveusd Месяц назад

      愛してる?恥ずかしくない?

    • @totopika
      @totopika Месяц назад

      @@tungcaveusd 恥ずかしくねえよ。俺はタレブ達に助けられてる。

  • @hola-kx1gn
    @hola-kx1gn Месяц назад +2

    They seem very pissed off about the name lol

  • @ogabekqurolboyev71
    @ogabekqurolboyev71 Месяц назад +1

    Super

  • @Peekabostreet
    @Peekabostreet Месяц назад

    ..But how do normal people invest in universa?

  • @КаринаБальсунова-б3б

    9916 Medhurst Extension

  • @Sol-zf9wc
    @Sol-zf9wc Месяц назад +1

    Haha also korean pronunce is "베르-누-이[yi]"

  • @TheRealStevenPolley
    @TheRealStevenPolley Месяц назад +1

    lmfao

  • @johndavidkromkowski816
    @johndavidkromkowski816 Месяц назад

    But sizing of the put (IF you can actual get the correct put) still question: why 2% why not 1% or 5%.
    Can the distribution of the clipped tail give us insight on the right size. Maybe, maybe not. If you are not a surgeon, probably should not take out your own appendix.

    • @gkttlr1066
      @gkttlr1066 Месяц назад

      2% happens to be the optimal. Read the book Safe Haven it explains it there

    • @ljragsandfeathers
      @ljragsandfeathers Месяц назад

      @@gkttlr1066sort of. But Mark is as slippery as any other hedge fund manager when talking details. An amazing read, however

    • @johndavidkromkowski816
      @johndavidkromkowski816 Месяц назад

      @@gkttlr1066 are you sure it's not 2.1% or 1.9%?

    • @johndavidkromkowski816
      @johndavidkromkowski816 Месяц назад

      @@gkttlr1066 are you sure it's not 2.1% or 1.9%?

  • @PullmanClyde
    @PullmanClyde Месяц назад

    52050 Elody Junctions