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Thank u so much for all the charts and graphs and for helping us walk thru them. I appreciate your non-sensationalist approach. I am worried about all the massive debt out there. How do u see that factoring in the future?
I am from India .Your videos are very informative ...I think one of the reason may be US debt crisis which market not discounted yet or don't consider this to happen..if it will come as shock then market correction upto 60-80%...and gold will be atleast 4times multiple from current price,I saw from my past analysis that market is not too much reacting on known factors...
Given the rapid rise in stocks, specifically in the Nasdaq and particularly since March 2020, I think there are many investors that have done exceptionally well, many of which haven’t been long in the market and have a short-term mindset. I would suggest at the first sign of trouble this group are more likely to want to protect their huge percentage increases and cash in on their upside and why not! With the accessibility, cost per trade and variety of trading platforms, there are far fewer long-term holders that would choose to weather the storm in the current climate. I believe this is felt strongest in the tech space especially due to the demographic of new investors. I would expect the tech stocks as usual to be hit hardest first because of this. One thing I see as being different now to previous tech bubbles is the speed and ease with which the new investors can liquidate.
In small caps maybe but even after the resent rise of retail investors getting into the market, retail still only makes up a tiny fraction of the actual market. Selling pressure from retail, especially in the larger cap tech companies would unlikely do much to affect the market.
I disagree, they only data I see is Chinese investors running away from Chinese tech stocks into US tech stocks because of the China government crackdown on Chinese tech. They buy on the dip and gonna hold on it even some minor sell offs, Chinese mentality is different from ours, they never panic, don’t watch CNBC or Bloomberg talking heads and more importantly they have more money than us to withstand and sell offs. And how you can initiate a sell off if the wast majority just don’t sell?? And predicting using the past charts is becoming worthless now since 2020 Covid market correction. Just take watch any past videos of so called charts gurus and you see all of them were wrong in their predictions!! Lol Times are different now. Only ⬆️!
@@dens3096 I think Chinese investor psychology is different from the western one. Western retail investors have more of a buy the dip mentality. Chinese retail investors have more of a join the herd mentality, especially regarding Chinese stocks.
I don't agree that there is a tech bubble, or at least not a general tech bubble. Tech stocks have risen because of their massive earning potential. Amazon is now back to where it was last November, despite blowout earnings. If anything, it is undervalued. The vast majority of shares (difficult to tell exactly but likely 70-85%) are owned by institutions - the ability of small shareholders to influence the price is limited.
It has been 8 years that people are talking about a crash, and all we got is corrections. In any case, for me any correction is just an opportunity buying...That is why all those warning about crash or corrections are nothing but opportunities for me..Provided that you have a diversified portfolio of course
What has me more concerned is that there is ~20 Trillion USD in circulation; however the US stock market is approximately 100 Trillion USD. If there were ever a massive sell off - there is not enough cash in global supply to cover it. So 80% of US stocks values is just funny money - it doesn't exist.
Since this video we have seen large surges in energy prices and labour shortages, along with more hikes in shipping charges. We also saw a hike in UK inflation. It seems to me that the tap has been turned on for inflation drivers, so while I agree with the inflation analysis at the time of this video, it may not have aged very well due to new events.
2021 is out. This rocket has some room to fly. I love how he talked about earnings. I didn't know companies had earnings. Uber, Tesla... This is a growth market.
Subscribed. Great analysis! I am leaning toward the scenario Michael Pento argues. Inflation (now), then disinflation/deflation soon after (check lumber, oil, copper and other asset prices coming down dramatically). Then hyperinflation when the fiscal and monetary policy seeks to print print print to fight the deflation. "Got gold?" :)
There is no doubt that a parabolic chart is worrying to say the least and when it comes to US indices that is more the case. That said markets can go on for longer than anticipated BUT the potential brakes could be the statements coming out of Jackson Hole at the end of the month which could change the tone completely. As to interest rate increases, this is not likely as the borrowing costs would be too prohibitive. Yield curve control will be actioned to mitigate any ongoing rise in inflation. Good all round video.
Beautifully analysed the present economic scene in US more importantly so because US stock market always have effect on other world stock markets.Only solace from your speech is though ,there may not be market crash but market correction is written on the wall though gradual depending upon implementation of Federal Tapering plans. Video quite educative and useful to understand-likely stock market movements.Thanks.
What if any do you think is the relationship between the 10yr yield and say the spx dividend? Do you think there could be a sig mean reversion in pe ratios for spx after lift off? It's nearly always the numerator that causes that?
Isn’t cpi seriously biased to show low inflation? They recently added hand sanitiser and face mask to the UK basket, 2 items that are bound to be cheaper this year.
Of course, a lot of things on the CPI list are subsidized to keep the prices down. Politicians and bankers are laughing all the way to the bank as their assets go up 10% pa.
A friend runs a electricians business in Bristol. He is having to dispose of his diesel vans at a loss so that he can replace them with electric vans due to a new pollution charging zone in the city. He is doing this at a time that there is a high demand for electrical vans ans a shortage of supply
@@Sabhail_ar_Alba : I guess that he could charge whatever he wants to now that all the EU people have gone. In the end it will be his customers that pay for this
great video! i am not an economist (i am a health care worker) and for me the biggest risk is delta. some of our health care systems are overwhelmed, exacerbated by understaffing (not only due to a shortages in labor but also burnout for its' underpaid workers), and if it gets worse there could be other safety nets to fall. just that coupled with high current valuations that, as you point out are hard to justify if you think earnings growth will slow. i'm kind of a perma bear though fwiw ...and tina still looms large. 40% cash
Wow that's a lot of cash! I'm still drip-feeding back into equity so if there is a selloff I'm going to accelerate those purchases. I agree that delta will have an impact e.g. on monetary policy. The Fed minutes from their July 2021 meeting actually says that their policy will depend on what happens with the delta variant in the US. However, so far the impact has been hugely positive for risk assets as lockdowns meant people had more savings and more time to invest. So I think it's hard to call the impact beforehand of future variants, it isn't necessarily a drag on equity prices. Thanks, Ramin.
@@Pensioncraft good point! i am drip feeding also. part of my plan to get out of single equities and back into funds but bonds are so expensive right now i slowed the drip. my fear is that yields will stay low for a lot longer than ppl think
Great information mate. As always, thank you for sharing! 👍🏽.. I do some other curious questions.. Does high inflation future mean that crypto are a good alternative? How does one correlate or compare digital assets from traditional assets.. how does one measure their value? Does volatility decrease the value of an asset? If so, what are the “value” penalty (or ways) to compare two assets with high differing volatility? Just some non urgent questions floating around..🚢
A correction is a decline >=10% and =20%, and a crash is just a rapid and severe fall. A really rapid crash is called a Flash Crash may be less dramatic in size but happens very quickly and then recovers. Algorithms, manipulation, randomness are some of the potential causes of a flash crash. A flash crash is usually over before most private investors have noticed.
"Nobody knows anything" as William Goldman says. I remember what every expert I'm aware of was saying last year. I remember when the s&p broke 2800 in the rally and many calling the top, then at 3000 that was definitely the top and we would go below March lows, then at 3200 it was the world's gone mad and its the robinhooders being fools. Now here we are at 4500.
Youre a great teacher ! I guess its inevitable that there will be some kind of correction in the coming year(s), but investors are so sensitive to disruptions. But as the great Jack Bogle said, "Time in the market beats timing the market."
Great video again! Thanks Ramin! The crash is already underway and germinated with ANT´s IPO cancelation. We keep talking about "tapper tantrums" ignoring the fact that equity markets are ill prepared for the next "regulatory tantrums" (chinese specialty). Liquidity keeps filling the ocasional bumps, until it will shift 180 degrees in the other direction. Like the three daughters in King Lear, your four reasons will play a role facilitating the unavoidable purge in a greek tragedy of homeric proportions. Nature will emerge triumphant (though harsh) so ... stay green ;-))) abrazo
Very wise conclusion on what might cause the next correction. However, one might argue that lower prices of (U.S.) equities would simply be a natural reversal to mean for the P/E
Very nice analysis. Congratulations. The big question is if consumers can afford the increased cost of leaving (even temporarily). My guess is NO. They are forced to reduce the consumption in order to counter balance inflation. This will hit corporate margins in many ways (less consumption and higher production costs). Credit expansion through tapering will not be enough short term to help the margins. A corrections is to expected but this is far from crash.
Taper Tantrum and lower earnings is the most likely catalyst. But as we learned in February - March, 2020 you just never know what is going to happen and when.
Taper tantrum unlikely. Rate hikes follow years later, and even those can be course-corrected as history has shown us. I doubt earnings will cause a crash or major correction, although they may slow down growth.
I'm on the fence as usual lol, I have big cash pot from a house sale that I need to grow into a retirement pot in about 10 years, I've put 25% in ready made portfolio from Hargreaves lansdowne and sitting on the rest in cash for a bit but dont want to sit on it too long.
Same here but remember money is called silver in many languages. I have my Cash in Sprotts PSLV waiting for the inevitable crash. Take a look at the Buffet indicator (205% gdp versus 85% normal etc etc. ) FOMO is more difficult to claw back from a crash than being patient and with your shopping list picking up the bargins. I expect to do so post Labour day furlough and mortgage moratorium end etc etc. Be patient this is a Bull trap !
@@esioanniannaho5939 yep fomo is definitely difficult to ignore but I'm not 100% sure of a crash either with money printing, silver sounds like a safe bet , 5% spread would eat a fair chunk too though if the crash happens fairly soon? But then silver goes up in a crash.
Another excellent video. I totally agree with this analysis so far as it goes. However, for me the trigger for a big sell off in the short to medium term would be if China and or Russia decide to go on an adventure after the dent to American prestige in Afghanistan. President Xi has made no secret of his wish to resolve the Taiwan 'problem' one way or another, while Russia may be tempted to prod Nato in the Baltic. Personally I think there is a 40%-50% risk that one or other scenario could happen in the next five years, though that is no more than guesswork on my part. What I am taking from all this, yet again, is the importance of diversifying my portfolio between gold/commodities, cash, equities, and a dash of crypto.
Something is wrong with the inflation numbers, Grocery prices are substantially higher. I just had some bids on a bathroom remodel and every contractor said their prices were higher because of inflation and higher supply prices. My daughter works for an appliance store and she says clients are having to wait for up to a year for their orders. Gasoline, of course, is outrageously higher in California. It is hard to believe the published inflation numbers.
I’ve noticed also that brands are also scaling back their amounts while charging higher prices. In other words, a 14 oz potato chip bag that was 2 dollars a year ago is now a 12 oz bag that is 3 dollars today.
Nice video, good insight. But I miss some thoughts about 1. Consequences of more infections by Delta and 2. Which optional asset could benefit if we a) have crash and/or b) slide into a recession like in yapan in the 1980s. Thanks for an answer.
1. Not only is big pharma confident that the vaccine should prevent Delta in most cases, last week a pharma company got a drug approved which supresses covid-19. 2. What could benefit if we have a crash? Hard to say. Since the last crash the old gold rule doesn't apply anymore. At least once it bottoms out, a 3x ETF would make sense. I seriously doubt a recession like the one in japan. US Fed monetary policy will repeat like after 2008 to focus on growth.
@@googleuser9383 1.) 3xETF...what is that?? On what. 2.) I'm not sure... if recession is there, they simply can't put more stimulus into the market...yield would be negative and dollar would crash against other currencies. It took Japan 30 years to catch up to "before bubble pop".
I can't reallly see any of the reasons given in the video that would precipitate a market crash. A market correction, yes, but no real reason to panic. A crash would more likely be the result of come externality that we cannot forsee at this point in time vis-a-vis COVID. Just my opinion.
I love factual and contextual data and analysis and that’s why I like Ramin and Pensioncraft. One frustration I have with a lot of comparisons of current data is that it’s compared to 12 months ago. Inflation and the base effect is just one. Another is the comparison of earnings growth. 85% is crazy; is there a way of seeing how it compares over 10 year average. A shiller type of earning growth metric like shiller PE ratio? Data’s only meaningful if the context is understood.
Always very well done video's. Appreciate the hard work sir, keep it going. Personally see taper as the nr1 reason. Raising rates is not going to happen anytime soon, there is too much debt to make it possible... As for Price/Earning ratios (PE ratios) being well above historically averages... I think that metric has become obsolete in the era of global liquidity being spewed onto the markets. Prices are high based on earnings.. sure, but there is of course a ton more fuel in the markets courtesy of the central banks. So, a better ratio would be to divide PE by M2, basically discounting for the amount of broad money there is in the economy.
@@IncomeBoost42 Yeah there's not many options at the moment. In fact I think Premium Bonds are the most popular option for risk-free savings with a 1% interest rate for prizes.
How big is your emergency fund? (Or how big would you realistically like it to be if you could get a substantially better rate?) Certainly you need to get out of the 0.01% account you are in now. My savings accounts are FDIC insured and return 3.0-3.3% with a fairly generous ceiling.
of course stock market rockets to the moon for no reason for the last year or so and I have no money in it and don't make a dime and then when I finally cave in and buy in, it goes down
China worried me more than the Delta variant and inflation. Reports have been coming in that China is moving from a controlled market demand economy back to a planned economy. This will create alot of volatility from their own population.
I would like the opportunity to buy at lower prices ;) I think inflation will not be as bad as many expect and that the fed will keep rates low for years. Perhaps rates go negative in the next crash.
I was very surprised to hear that in your opinion it is more likely that the companies will swallow the effect of high PPI. On the other hand, you never even consider wage inflation. The fact that job openings are high but nobody wants those jobs at those salaries anymore. I really respect your professional view so I would love to hear a clarification on those points. Thank you!
The Chinese tech regulations are much more nuanced, worth pointing out these are the first serious set of regulations in a previously heavily unregulated sector. They are on par with EU regs - the latest data privacy law is similar in many ways to the GDPR.
The biggest problem for the US markets in the long run is due to emerging market competition. It is likely, that once we finally switch to a bear market, the indexes will never again reach those highs as economic power shifts from west to east. The Japanese scenario is likely, and the only unknown is the effect of A.I. and automation.
I love all these financial youtubers just happening to put this same topic out all the past week. Just confirms to me to buy even more. When everyone is convinced about a "crash" that means it literally cannot happen. A crash has to be predicated by panic. What people did not foresee. Thanks for the free money idiots. The math will not check out otherwise.
most people would not even bat an eyelid at 5% for the ftse100 thats around 350 points peanuts and just at the right time my salary buys more at he end of the month luverly jubbly
I know math is the strong suit of most people trading on Robinhood and using Bitcoin to buy nothing. I started the Giving Pledge Coin based off Bill Gates foundation. For every coin you buy a family will be fed if Africa once they get a smartphone, 4G, a bank account, and electricity. Keep on Bullin!
This is BS, how many times does anyone want to see correction!! 2018, 2020 and again? Know the fact, the market keep making ATH and the disruptive innovation is pouring in!! This is Tech era.
If you what to keep up to date with the macroeconomic & stock market news that's most relevant for investors then sign up for my FREE weekly Market Roundup pensioncraft.com/market-roundup/
Congratulations on 100k subscribers... much deserved...✌
If ppl really expect a crash, then it will never happen
Good one
yep not gonna happen not yet anyway
Thank u so much for all the charts and graphs and for helping us walk thru them. I appreciate your non-sensationalist approach. I am worried about all the massive debt out there. How do u see that factoring in the future?
Very informative video! I didn't know about the last part about earnings growth failing to reach the estimates. Thank you!
Glad it was helpful!
Serious, clear , objective. A good video. Thanks for sharing
Hi Rodolfo thank you, I appreciate that! Ramin.
Remember, it doesn’t matter if you panic. It matters if everyone else does.
Remember with the 10 year at 1.3 percent there is no where to hide but equities. We are all safe!
Hi can u give me another small cap index fund to invest in on vanguarduk away from apart from the gobal small cap index etf?
I've been stock up on cash for the next sell off/crash. It might prove to be the wrong strategy, but I just can't pay these prices
That’s the right move. It’s happen before the end of the year.
I am from India .Your videos are very informative ...I think one of the reason may be US debt crisis which market not discounted yet or don't consider this to happen..if it will come as shock then market correction upto 60-80%...and gold will be atleast 4times multiple from current price,I saw from my past analysis that market is not too much reacting on known factors...
Ohh
Fantastic. The depth level is fantastic. Thoughtful, not dramatic, and informative.
Glad you liked it!
@@Pensioncraft Thank you :) Are you reducing your equity exposure as a result?
I like this vid. Good insight.. I think we might have to find better ways of managing our budgets.
I'm glad you found it useful
Given the rapid rise in stocks, specifically in the Nasdaq and particularly since March 2020, I think there are many investors that have done exceptionally well, many of which haven’t been long in the market and have a short-term mindset. I would suggest at the first sign of trouble this group are more likely to want to protect their huge percentage increases and cash in on their upside and why not! With the accessibility, cost per trade and variety of trading platforms, there are far fewer long-term holders that would choose to weather the storm in the current climate. I believe this is felt strongest in the tech space especially due to the demographic of new investors. I would expect the tech stocks as usual to be hit hardest first because of this. One thing I see as being different now to previous tech bubbles is the speed and ease with which the new investors can liquidate.
In small caps maybe but even after the resent rise of retail investors getting into the market, retail still only makes up a tiny fraction of the actual market. Selling pressure from retail, especially in the larger cap tech companies would unlikely do much to affect the market.
I disagree, they only data I see is Chinese investors running away from Chinese tech stocks into US tech stocks because of the China government crackdown on Chinese tech. They buy on the dip and gonna hold on it even some minor sell offs, Chinese mentality is different from ours, they never panic, don’t watch CNBC or Bloomberg talking heads and more importantly they have more money than us to withstand and sell offs. And how you can initiate a sell off if the wast majority just don’t sell?? And predicting using the past charts is becoming worthless now since 2020 Covid market correction. Just take watch any past videos of so called charts gurus and you see all of them were wrong in their predictions!! Lol Times are different now. Only ⬆️!
@@dens3096 I think Chinese investor psychology is different from the western one. Western retail investors have more of a buy the dip mentality. Chinese retail investors have more of a join the herd mentality, especially regarding Chinese stocks.
I don't agree that there is a tech bubble, or at least not a general tech bubble. Tech stocks have risen because of their massive earning potential. Amazon is now back to where it was last November, despite blowout earnings. If anything, it is undervalued. The vast majority of shares (difficult to tell exactly but likely 70-85%) are owned by institutions - the ability of small shareholders to influence the price is limited.
It has been 8 years that people are talking about a crash, and all we got is corrections. In any case, for me any correction is just an opportunity buying...That is why all those warning about crash or corrections are nothing but opportunities for me..Provided that you have a diversified portfolio of course
Is it frustrating that your most watched videos are those with crash in the title?
Interesting observation!
What has me more concerned is that there is ~20 Trillion USD in circulation; however the US stock market is approximately 100 Trillion USD. If there were ever a massive sell off - there is not enough cash in global supply to cover it. So 80% of US stocks values is just funny money - it doesn't exist.
Sketchy math but I get the point. I think that is the total of the US stock market, bond market and housing market combined. It might be like 120.
Since this video we have seen large surges in energy prices and labour shortages, along with more hikes in shipping charges. We also saw a hike in UK inflation. It seems to me that the tap has been turned on for inflation drivers, so while I agree with the inflation analysis at the time of this video, it may not have aged very well due to new events.
Thanks for sharing. A very good fact-based explanation!
Glad it was helpful!
If people expect market crash - surely it won't happen :) it will happen when everybody least expect it.
2021 is out. This rocket has some room to fly. I love how he talked about earnings. I didn't know companies had earnings. Uber, Tesla... This is a growth market.
Subscribed. Great analysis! I am leaning toward the scenario Michael Pento argues. Inflation (now), then disinflation/deflation soon after (check lumber, oil, copper and other asset prices coming down dramatically). Then hyperinflation when the fiscal and monetary policy seeks to print print print to fight the deflation. "Got gold?" :)
Thank you for watching and commenting
There is no doubt that a parabolic chart is worrying to say the least and when it comes to US indices that is more the case. That said markets can go on for longer than anticipated BUT the potential brakes could be the statements coming out of Jackson Hole at the end of the month which could change the tone completely. As to interest rate increases, this is not likely as the borrowing costs would be too prohibitive. Yield curve control will be actioned to mitigate any ongoing rise in inflation. Good all round video.
Thanks
Beautifully analysed the present economic scene in US more importantly so because US stock market always have effect on other world stock markets.Only solace from your speech is though ,there may not be market crash but market correction is written on the wall though gradual depending upon implementation of Federal Tapering plans. Video quite educative and useful to understand-likely stock market movements.Thanks.
Glad you found it useful
What if any do you think is the relationship between the 10yr yield and say the spx dividend? Do you think there could be a sig mean reversion in pe ratios for spx after lift off? It's nearly always the numerator that causes that?
Isn’t cpi seriously biased to show low inflation? They recently added hand sanitiser and face mask to the UK basket, 2 items that are bound to be cheaper this year.
Also known as CPLie.
Of course, a lot of things on the CPI list are subsidized to keep the prices down. Politicians and bankers are laughing all the way to the bank as their assets go up 10% pa.
A friend runs a electricians business in Bristol. He is having to dispose of his diesel vans at a loss so that he can replace them with electric vans due to a new pollution charging zone in the city. He is doing this at a time that there is a high demand for electrical vans ans a shortage of supply
wouldn't expect any less from Bristol
Maybe it's time for him to get out.
@@Sabhail_ar_Alba : I guess that he could charge whatever he wants to now that all the EU people have gone. In the end it will be his customers that pay for this
great video! i am not an economist (i am a health care worker) and for me the biggest risk is delta. some of our health care systems are overwhelmed, exacerbated by understaffing (not only due to a shortages in labor but also burnout for its' underpaid workers), and if it gets worse there could be other safety nets to fall. just that coupled with high current valuations that, as you point out are hard to justify if you think earnings growth will slow. i'm kind of a perma bear though fwiw ...and tina still looms large. 40% cash
Wow that's a lot of cash! I'm still drip-feeding back into equity so if there is a selloff I'm going to accelerate those purchases. I agree that delta will have an impact e.g. on monetary policy. The Fed minutes from their July 2021 meeting actually says that their policy will depend on what happens with the delta variant in the US. However, so far the impact has been hugely positive for risk assets as lockdowns meant people had more savings and more time to invest. So I think it's hard to call the impact beforehand of future variants, it isn't necessarily a drag on equity prices. Thanks, Ramin.
@@Pensioncraft good point! i am drip feeding also. part of my plan to get out of single equities and back into funds but bonds are so expensive right now i slowed the drip. my fear is that yields will stay low for a lot longer than ppl think
Great information mate. As always, thank you for sharing! 👍🏽.. I do some other curious questions.. Does high inflation future mean that crypto are a good alternative? How does one correlate or compare digital assets from traditional assets.. how does one measure their value? Does volatility decrease the value of an asset? If so, what are the “value” penalty (or ways) to compare two assets with high differing volatility? Just some non urgent questions floating around..🚢
where do you find the information in this video?
write on telegram @richardferlan
Great video! You made it so clear and easy to understand 👍
Glad you found it useful
Interest rates caused change to market and always will?
yea
Very calming treatment compared to the doom reports I have been reading.
It seems to me that in the current state of the market it wants to rally even more, probably because of all those reasons you've talked about. :)
Thank you for commenting
Whats a correction Ramin.....10% ? Thanks
A correction is a decline >=10% and =20%, and a crash is just a rapid and severe fall. A really rapid crash is called a Flash Crash may be less dramatic in size but happens very quickly and then recovers. Algorithms, manipulation, randomness are some of the potential causes of a flash crash. A flash crash is usually over before most private investors have noticed.
He actually used both the term 'correction' and the term 'crash'. IIRC a correction is 10-20%. A crash is40% or more.
That’s right - 10% is a correction, 20% is a bear market but there isn’t really a formal definition of a crash. Thanks, Ramin
Very good video!
Thank you very much!
problem is people are loking at earnings per share EPS which is going through the roof due to huge buybacks.
"Nobody knows anything" as William Goldman says. I remember what every expert I'm aware of was saying last year. I remember when the s&p broke 2800 in the rally and many calling the top, then at 3000 that was definitely the top and we would go below March lows, then at 3200 it was the world's gone mad and its the robinhooders being fools.
Now here we are at 4500.
Ok, you remember that. It was a year ago. And do you remember what happened 20 years ago?
The biggest risk for markets is of his overvaluation and the rest comes!
The market May dip but wouldn’t have big correction nor crash.
Youre a great teacher ! I guess its inevitable that there will be some kind of correction in the coming year(s), but investors are so sensitive to disruptions. But as the great Jack Bogle said, "Time in the market beats timing the market."
Great video again! Thanks Ramin! The crash is already underway and germinated with ANT´s IPO cancelation. We keep talking about "tapper tantrums" ignoring the fact that equity markets are ill prepared for the next "regulatory tantrums" (chinese specialty). Liquidity keeps filling the ocasional bumps, until it will shift 180 degrees in the other direction. Like the three daughters in King Lear, your four reasons will play a role facilitating the unavoidable purge in a greek tragedy of homeric proportions. Nature will emerge triumphant (though harsh) so ... stay green ;-))) abrazo
I'm staying green! I love the King Lear analogy. Nice to hear from you Peixe Verde. Thanks, Ramin.
Very wise conclusion on what might cause the next correction. However, one might argue that lower prices of (U.S.) equities would simply be a natural reversal to mean for the P/E
Very nice analysis. Congratulations. The big question is if consumers can afford the increased cost of leaving (even temporarily). My guess is NO. They are forced to reduce the consumption in order to counter balance inflation. This will hit corporate margins in many ways (less consumption and higher production costs). Credit expansion through tapering will not be enough short term to help the margins. A corrections is to expected but this is far from crash.
Thanks for your comment!
Taper Tantrum and lower earnings is the most likely catalyst. But as we learned in February - March, 2020 you just never know what is going to happen and when.
Taper tantrum unlikely. Rate hikes follow years later, and even those can be course-corrected as history has shown us. I doubt earnings will cause a crash or major correction, although they may slow down growth.
I think the next thing will come out of China.
Fed cannot raise rates, they are bluffing.
I'm on the fence as usual lol, I have big cash pot from a house sale that I need to grow into a retirement pot in about 10 years, I've put 25% in ready made portfolio from Hargreaves lansdowne and sitting on the rest in cash for a bit but dont want to sit on it too long.
Same here but remember money is called silver in many languages. I have my Cash in Sprotts PSLV waiting for the inevitable crash. Take a look at the Buffet indicator (205% gdp versus 85% normal etc etc. ) FOMO is more difficult to claw back from a crash than being patient and with your shopping list picking up the bargins. I expect to do so post Labour day furlough and mortgage moratorium end etc etc. Be patient this is a Bull trap !
@@esioanniannaho5939 yep fomo is definitely difficult to ignore but I'm not 100% sure of a crash either with money printing, silver sounds like a safe bet , 5% spread would eat a fair chunk too though if the crash happens fairly soon?
But then silver goes up in a crash.
Hold it until the end of the year. Do not pay these prices.
Another excellent video. I totally agree with this analysis so far as it goes. However, for me the trigger for a big sell off in the short to medium term would be if China and or Russia decide to go on an adventure after the dent to American prestige in Afghanistan. President Xi has made no secret of his wish to resolve the Taiwan 'problem' one way or another, while Russia may be tempted to prod Nato in the Baltic. Personally I think there is a 40%-50% risk that one or other scenario could happen in the next five years, though that is no more than guesswork on my part.
What I am taking from all this, yet again, is the importance of diversifying my portfolio between gold/commodities, cash, equities, and a dash of crypto.
Thank you
You're welcome
Something is wrong with the inflation numbers, Grocery prices are substantially higher. I just had some bids on a bathroom remodel and every contractor said their prices were higher because of inflation and higher supply prices. My daughter works for an appliance store and she says clients are having to wait for up to a year for their orders. Gasoline, of course, is outrageously higher in California. It is hard to believe the published inflation numbers.
Right. Inflation is already much higher than what is being published.
I’ve noticed also that brands are also scaling back their amounts while charging higher prices. In other words, a 14 oz potato chip bag that was 2 dollars a year ago is now a 12 oz bag that is 3 dollars today.
wonderful content as always! thank you
Glad you enjoyed it!
Nice, grounded stuff, Ramin. As always, with 'data in context' to back it up...
Glad you enjoyed it
The UK market has been off the boil since late May, the US is in an epic bubble and is a threat to the the stability of all other assets.
Nice video, good insight. But I miss some thoughts about
1. Consequences of more infections by Delta and
2. Which optional asset could benefit if we a) have crash and/or b) slide into a recession like in yapan in the 1980s. Thanks for an answer.
1. Not only is big pharma confident that the vaccine should prevent Delta in most cases, last week a pharma company got a drug approved which supresses covid-19.
2. What could benefit if we have a crash? Hard to say. Since the last crash the old gold rule doesn't apply anymore. At least once it bottoms out, a 3x ETF would make sense.
I seriously doubt a recession like the one in japan. US Fed monetary policy will repeat like after 2008 to focus on growth.
@@googleuser9383
1.) 3xETF...what is that?? On what.
2.) I'm not sure... if recession is there, they simply can't put more stimulus into the market...yield would be negative and dollar would crash against other currencies.
It took Japan 30 years to catch up to "before bubble pop".
You should have way more views, very well made videos with interesting content. I like! Thumbs up!
I appreciate that!
I can't reallly see any of the reasons given in the video that would precipitate a market crash. A market correction, yes, but no real reason to panic. A crash would more likely be the result of come externality that we cannot forsee at this point in time vis-a-vis COVID. Just my opinion.
Thank you for commenting!
So good.
Full employment is not 4.5% . . . that's just capitalism's reliance on 1 in 20 workers being without work to keep wages suppressed.
I love factual and contextual data and analysis and that’s why I like Ramin and Pensioncraft. One frustration I have with a lot of comparisons of current data is that it’s compared to 12 months ago. Inflation and the base effect is just one. Another is the comparison of earnings growth. 85% is crazy; is there a way of seeing how it compares over 10 year average. A shiller type of earning growth metric like shiller PE ratio? Data’s only meaningful if the context is understood.
Always very well done video's. Appreciate the hard work sir, keep it going. Personally see taper as the nr1 reason. Raising rates is not going to happen anytime soon, there is too much debt to make it possible... As for Price/Earning ratios (PE ratios) being well above historically averages... I think that metric has become obsolete in the era of global liquidity being spewed onto the markets. Prices are high based on earnings.. sure, but there is of course a ton more fuel in the markets courtesy of the central banks. So, a better ratio would be to divide PE by M2, basically discounting for the amount of broad money there is in the economy.
Thanks for your comments
Fire sale incoming
Market crash! The FTSE 100 is below where it was at Xmas 1999.
Best investment analysis on RUclips, from a genuine investment heavyweight. Thanks Ramin..🍺
Glad you think so!
The last point is very insightful
Agree with you.
Thank you!
Big equity market correction overdue!
I very much like your comments about inflation. To me it is temporary and the prices of used cars and gasoline will be lower by the end of year
One reason for every crash... Central banking... How that come ppl think that fair market is possible with central banking is beyond me...
The inflation figure in the UK is fixed. Real world inflation is higher than the figures.
Ask any housewife, car salesman or DIY expert if they agree inflation is running at 2%.
It wouldn’t be that bad if the interest rate was raised a bit. My emergency fund could sure do with an increase from 0.01% savings rate!
Are you not actively managing your savings? There are far better rates to be found and they're on the rise at the moment, at least here in the UK.
@@GrandmaSledgehammer I am, I found Natwest’s digital saver with 3% but that’s capped. I’ve seen 1% here and there but nothing substantially higher
@@IncomeBoost42 Yeah there's not many options at the moment. In fact I think Premium Bonds are the most popular option for risk-free savings with a 1% interest rate for prizes.
How big is your emergency fund? (Or how big would you realistically like it to be if you could get a substantially better rate?) Certainly you need to get out of the 0.01% account you are in now. My savings accounts are FDIC insured and return 3.0-3.3% with a fairly generous ceiling.
It will not happen. It would collapse governments. That is why they will not do it.
Sell everything, panic now everywhere
And I will buy good companies at discounted levels
Everyone is predicting a crash. Wonder what that means??
Means you should buy.
It means that RUclips financial gurus are trying to get more views.
@@pedroteixeira6168 exactly
2.5 TRILLION in SAVINGS
Full Employment next few years
of course stock market rockets to the moon for no reason for the last year or so and I have no money in it and don't make a dime and then when I finally cave in and buy in, it goes down
lol we all feel like that most of the time
China worried me more than the Delta variant and inflation. Reports have been coming in that China is moving from a controlled market demand economy back to a planned economy. This will create alot of volatility from their own population.
Evergrande is an amazing company!
@@yogathan1 when Evergrande default on their debt, it will be epic.
thnx for the video 👍
You're welcome!
I would like the opportunity to buy at lower prices ;) I think inflation will not be as bad as many expect and that the fed will keep rates low for years. Perhaps rates go negative in the next crash.
I was very surprised to hear that in your opinion it is more likely that the companies will swallow the effect of high PPI. On the other hand, you never even consider wage inflation. The fact that job openings are high but nobody wants those jobs at those salaries anymore. I really respect your professional view so I would love to hear a clarification on those points. Thank you!
Strange how apposite this is to serious American pundits, such as Steve Van Metre.
by dint of collapses we will find ourselves S&P 500 at 5000 points!
No, SNP to 5000+. short sharp shallow pull backs, more than 5% correction is far from likely.
Currently I prefer ETF’s in Singapore, Russia and Norway. Not crazy valuations like in the US.
The Chinese tech regulations are much more nuanced, worth pointing out these are the first serious set of regulations in a previously heavily unregulated sector. They are on par with EU regs - the latest data privacy law is similar in many ways to the GDPR.
The biggest problem for the US markets in the long run is due to emerging market competition. It is likely, that once we finally switch to a bear market, the indexes will never again reach those highs as economic power shifts from west to east. The Japanese scenario is likely, and the only unknown is the effect of A.I. and automation.
Going to crash....thereafter to go up. Hold on to your stocks!!!
if you know when the market will crash, you should be a billionaire
I love all these financial youtubers just happening to put this same topic out all the past week. Just confirms to me to buy even more. When everyone is convinced about a "crash" that means it literally cannot happen. A crash has to be predicated by panic. What people did not foresee. Thanks for the free money idiots. The math will not check out otherwise.
He said correction. Not crash. Correction 5-10%. Crash...much more.
@@baycreekhistorydetectives4830 Won't be a correction either, when everyone's buying in on every slight red day they see...
most people would not even bat an eyelid at 5% for the ftse100 thats around 350 points peanuts
and just at the right time my salary buys more at he end of the month luverly jubbly
I know math is the strong suit of most people trading on Robinhood and using Bitcoin to buy nothing. I started the Giving Pledge Coin based off Bill Gates foundation. For every coin you buy a family will be fed if Africa once they get a smartphone, 4G, a bank account, and electricity. Keep on Bullin!
This is BS, how many times does anyone want to see correction!!
2018, 2020 and again? Know the fact, the market keep making ATH and the disruptive innovation is pouring in!! This is Tech era.
I'm tired of listening market correction. Fed chutiya hai.
DIAMOND HANDS RAMIN 💎💎💎👐👐👐
AMC entertainment holdings stock going to the moon. Mother of all squeeze’s incoming 💎🙌🚀 still time to get in.
having a great mentor will always bring winning mindset, Richard is genius and has made me understand more things in crypto investment.