Political survey or political election? / Do you trust surveys? / Do you have confidence in polls?

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  • Опубликовано: 10 янв 2025
  • I don’t really trust surveys anymore. We used to have a couple, the Nielsen Survey about TV watching and Gallop polls for political and social issues. I think most people had confidence in them back then. Although Truman’s upset win in the 1948 Presidential Election over Dewey was a huge setback for Gallop and polls in general I think.
    But let’s turn to the present. I don’t have confidence in polls. Nor do most of my friends. The biggest problem in trusting them is that they seem to be like many see the news media with a bit of a built in bias. Both candidates can find a survey that supports them. That’s troubling. And when survey results often differ significantly. That’s unsettling.
    I’m comfortable that all the technical stuff, statistical magic, numeric mysterious are solid… it’s the survey participant I worry about. It’s said the Gallup (still extant) needs only 1000 carefully selected people for a national survey. So the whole result boils down to who you select. That’s what worries me. Again, I know there is a lot of high class statistical technique in selecting survey participants, but there is a whole category of people that aren’t included. Namely, people like me. I don’t do any kind of survey from the national political variety right down to the requests for report the quality of service I’ve received…hospitals, plumbers, restaurants phone service.
    But back to political surveys. What do I conclude? Abolish them. Make them illegal, except for one per election. For example, let’s have one 1000 person (that’s all you need) survey to decide who our next president will be. It will save millions of dollars in election costs, lawsuits, whining… The survey winner will be our next President.
    The other option… after abolishing surveys, insist that candidates do a good job , tell the truth, listen to their constituents and let the final, only and ultimate survey be the vote.

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