Russell Napier. Twenty One Lessons from Financial History for the Way We Live Now.
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- Опубликовано: 17 май 2024
- We are pleased to announce that the video of the lecture by Russell Napier is now available on our RUclips channel.
“Twenty One Lessons from Financial History for the Way We Live Now.”
The lecture took place at our library in Lausanne, Rue du Grand-Pont 12, on March 27, 2024, at 18:00.
Please help yourself and access the lecture slides by the following link.
lomlausanne.ch/wp-content/upl...
Thank you all for producing this.
His 21 lessons are:
1. Spend as much time analyzing supply as you do demand.
2. GDP growth has no relation to future equity returns.
3. Gordon Pepper’s Law: When you see something unsustainable, calculate the maximum period of time that you think it can persist. Then double it and subtract a month.
4. Never think about anything else when you should be thinking about the power of incentives. When forced to choose, governments will give up control of the exchange rate.
5. Governments like markets as long as markets produce the prices governments want. Governments aren’t neutral and they take sides.
6. Mean reversion of corporate profits to GDP is strong: In a free society, this will remain true.
7. Assess monetary policy based on both the quantity of money and interest rates.
8. The most dangerous form of speculation is the reach for yield.
9. Populism is not a threat to countries with strong constitutions.
10. The best way to predict if a country will default on its debt is if they have previously defaulted on their debt.
11. When equity valuations are high, they fall slowly with inflation and quickly with deflation.
12. Never buy emerging market equity in a country with an overvalued exchange rate.
13. Tourism is the best indicator of an overvalued exchange rate.
14. Always buy equities when the CAPE is lower than 10, with three exceptions: when you believe communism or fascism will occur; when you suspect your capital stock can be destroyed by war; or if your currency has entered a new currency regime with an overvalued exchange rate like Greece in the eurozone.
15. Democracy is more suited to operation of capital controls than the free movement of capital.
16. Government does not have to print to inflate away debts because they have citizen savings (using financial repression) so hyper inflation will not occur in developed world.
17. Technology never defeats inflation.
18. Monetary systems fail about every 30 years.
19. Money is almost always in disequilibrium.
20. Never trust a forecast that has a decimal point.
21. Extrapolation is the opiate of the people.
Thanks, GPT.
Thank you, sir!
🎉❤
❤
chad
It’s truly criminal that this doesn’t have more views.
It's not. If it had 3m views it would lose its competitive edge.
I've never understood why people hold value in popularity.
Russell is my secret sauce for keeping ahead of financial repression.
It's criminal but great for us 😏
@@Noallegiance doh
Truly, it's criminal. Arrest the ungrateful, this crime must be punished.
This is truly excellent. Russell is a font of wisdom.
As an economist, a teacher of economics, and a person who personally takes care of my savings. Out of all educational books and free available content online, this is by far the most superior and comprehensive perspective on the next two or three decades.
English forbids double-superlatives.
@@PazLeBon perhaps in formal English, this is the comment section of YT
@@mirkostanic92 but you're selling yourself as intelligent lol
@@PazLeBon man, you may be selling yourself.. I am sharing my opinion. If you have anything constructive to discuss, go ahead, willing to participate. Otherwise, not willing to spend my time..
@@mirkostanic92 Hi. Could you give me the title of this book please? Thanks a lot!
Excellent thanks
Russell is brilliant as ever.
Russell is an applied intellect, combining the hard yards of knowledge acquisition with real world commercial nous. The fact he makes the complex so easy to understand is the cherry on the cake.
Excellent talk with profound insights. Thanks for uploading, and thanks to the Ytube algorithm for pointing me to it.
Very informative and simply brilliant lecture!
Library of Mistakes - what an interesting idea. Never trust a decimal point - what an interesting idea! Lessons from History - what an unpopular idea! Subscribed.
Thank you Russell this lecture was amazing
Thanks Russell 👍🏻🏴
Brilliant.
While Mr. Napier makes all the point of supply and demand like economists always do, not one mention of the basis of law, and whose law. Perhaps it's time to revisit the classic Greek philosophy of Aristotle who questioned the ethics of usury itself. "He believed that people obsessed with attaining
wealth, would be too preoccupied to participate in the polis and fail to perform
their civic duties". (Kozel, Philip, 2006. “Aristotle’s Discourse on Commodity Exchange.” In Market Sense: Toward A
new Economics of Markets and Society. New York and London: Routledge, pp. 17-30). We see the breakdown of the nation states on a global scale today for this very reason.
AMAZINGLY GOOD VIDEO 👏👏👏
Just wow, great speaker
Wow - felt like I was in the room with RN. Excellent - thank you.
Truly one of the best
Thanks Russel for getting rid of the San-Ti threat. Good to see economics was your passion all along.
Great speaker. Talking about why GDP growth doesn't have a relationship with stock market appreciation he references a 120 year old study and then quotes Warren Buffet: "price is what you pay, value is what you get" if you overpay it can take time to have value. Excellent
Top Stuff
Point #6 I believe the “free society” you speak of is specifically the structure change most deny due to bias
Regarding #9, read the "Great Taking" by Tom Webb.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank 😊
The most troubling thing is when he talks about Weimar Germany "Why didn't they mobilise the peoples savings? A because they didn't have any" But that is the case in America today with the vast majority having no savings, and even those earning $100 K claiming they can't make ends meet. Von Mises Crack up Boom theory comes to mind.
its cos americans buy stuff they cant afford....... on credit!
Thats not true, look at tables of median and average net wealth. Even the 25th percentile US-American is well off. Most is in the hands of boomers.
The US savings rate is 3-4%, and during Covid it was considerably higher. Certainly a huge proportion of US citizens have no safety net but those that do have considerabe savings and investments. Ignoring billionaires, those who have wealth have plenty. Approx 22m Americans have a net worth of more than $1m. According to Federal statistics the average adult has a net worth of over $500,000, which includes their homes. There is much fragmentation depending on age, income, region, education, ethnicity, etc., but aggregate savings in the US reaches staggering numbers.
A lot of people scrape by simply because they overspend. If money becomes actually tight, there are surprisingly lot of ways to save money. Not talking about actually poor people
@@jussi3378 well thats ok then cos most of the working class are poor people,yep, im sure its easy to asave money when you have excess
Very interesting....
Well, Greece is one example where the people are forced to give moneys to the government to create surplus, just to pay foreigner debt back. Foreigner being mainly German and French banks... This is the shortest and msot accurate explanations I've heard!
At the start i feared that this would turn into a goldbug but at the half way point it had interesting ideas and I'm optimistic that it won't turn into that.
Master
If all information is in the price explain ...
1994 - 1/8th of an Oz of Weed was $35 (+/-$5) in North Jersey
2024 - $25 - $50, the range is quality & marketing.
Note: the quality is higher now (2022 - 24) as a starting point than any point before 2001 or after 2008.
How has quality improved?
Availability is unchanged and legality has not impacted price.
All interesting but the truth is that no one, especially academics no what will happen next. Historians particularly, they will tell you exactly who something happened during in the past but use lots of “possibly” or “likely” and so on when talking of the future.
Is there a Rule of LAW? Ask Mr T. that question about NY City
Logistics/ supply chains are fundamental. Brexit, COVID reminded us just how crucial these are, beyond assessment of supply & demand 😮
I wish I had smart friends who were interested in this…..
you are amongst friends...
Did he release a book about this? I can’t seem to find anything. Would love to read more
Ask the General Motors bondholders if the USA has "the rule of law".
37:30 In what instance Turkey has defaulted in its debt?
Where is more literature on Pepper’s Law? Origin/person etc
Sorry about typos, in a rush, you get the jist.
During this excellent talk I found myself often thinking, "I'm glad I own bitcoin." With bitcoin I can enjoy deflation as the nautural good order. Inflation is theft of the wealth that deflation naturally brings to society. As technological advancement and debt spirals drive currency debasement I find that everything continues to cost less in bitcoin terms. This is the most interesting aspect of bitcoin, it gives little guys the ability to front run giants. Putting myself on a bitcoin standard has worked wonders. I would say to others not to wait. It is still early.
Yes! Bitcoin not crypto
@@edawg654 Indeed, bitcoin's adoption and dollar price has been following a power law and has absolute decentralization and scarcity. Other projects using blockchain tech (crypto that is not Bitcoin) can't, nor do they want to, attempt to replace Bitcoin. These other projects are too speculative to be considered a wise savings asset. None of them are being adopted or appreciating in dollar terms with a power law progression like bitcoin.
Section 5 big Corporation. It's a natural progression for capitalism to end this way as described in Marx's theory of capitalism. It takes socialist (not neo liberalism) to revert this back to sustainable levels.
met him he hates bitcooin. how did that work out?
So if you calculate the returns from stock and or bonds, around 4-12% p.a., for the last 20 years, deduct the inflation rate of around ( my opinion) 14-20%, just check your rent, mortgage, power or food bill if you have any doubt to what the current inflation rate is…you are in my opinion not even hedging….I looked into theasus for about the last 5 years and found bitcoin has had the highest returns over any 4 year period….do you own homework, someone’s Nobel Prize isn’t paying your bills…Take care…
First step: have rich parents
Second step: be rich
re: 22 ish ... yes, whether a man, woman...any human, shall we say, would be impartial...
I know someone is legit when they talk about supply.
Supply is demand, as I like to say, as in a farmer's supply of wheat will dictate, after its sale, his demand for meat and livestock, say.
If we like it or not: The upcoming changes in society and economy might - in alignment with Amara‘s law - be much bigger than we can imagine right now. What about 100‘s of millions, even billions of young and smart people opting out from the outdated systems of hopelessly indebted nation states and join newly emerging, global ‘network communities becoming network states‘. This can get such a dynamic that no tanks, no airplane-carriers will be able to stop it. The current global governance systems are to us like teenagers forced wearing his/her childhood shoes, no longer feasible in our age of probably irreversible globalization and in coping with the impact and threats of modern technologies. Of course this can trigger moving into the wrong direction with tech corporations taking over the world. Therefore it will be crucial to work on protecting the rule of law and human rights in this next phase of the digital transformation, requiring a ‚Next Generation Internet‘ based on open source, decentralization and self-sovereign identity. Some signs of hope are popping up in latest EU strategy papers, but this will require each and every ‘humanist’ to become active very rapidly, otherwise we will end up in 2084 or a Mad Max world.
lol so wont happen :)
Chinese currency is not pegged to USD
I learned a lot from this video but I disagree that governments do not have to inflate to deal with debt. Russell had some of the opium of the people: he is extrapolating the past. The US and Britain managed to deal with high debt/GDP ratios after WWII without hyperinflation, but now they cannot. Reasons: 1) properly accounted (including Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare), debt/GDP is 1000% now, 2) Populism has decidively won its battle against the forces of fiscal conservatism: now both the Republican and Democratic parties are fierce advocates of fiscal profligacy, 3) the enemy is no longer a centrally planned economy, but a mostly market economy, 4) the environment and natural resources are a much more serious problem, given that population and GDP are much higher.
Argentina was wealthier than Switzerland and France in 1920. The US is going to follow a similar path. Because that is what the American peopke will vote for, just like the Argentines did.
Disagree on democracy:
That is where you vote on taxes!
🪶
10 times CAP? What the heck dos that mean??
President Xi can change one of two things the off shore yuan or GOLD.
The world will no do well with a cheaper yuan.
China will do better with gold at +3000USD
Why cause the own a nationally and individually.
Higher gold means pressure on USD.
Higher gold does not fuel higher CPIs around the world
It's not that easy, China has hundreds of millions of working people and a huge services sector linked to it, which produces more goods than Chinese people can buy as a result China must export the goods around the world. So if you make the Yuan more expensive and the Dollar weaker China will find it harder to export those goods which could lead to deflation. Due to culture, history, geography and other reasons most Chinese people live in apartments in cities or small rural homes, both of these groups do not consume much goods while in the USA most people live in private homes in suburban areas which has a massive ability to consume goods and services so the USA and China are like 2 perfect pieces of a puzzle they fit together 100% perfectly. The USA cannot make enough goods which is why it had big inflation in the 1970s-80s and 2020s and China needs an export market to sustain it's economy. In the future the USA will try and diversify importing goods from other countries than just China but this will cost more = inflation and China will also try and diversify away from the USA but this will cost much more meaning less profit and the rise and fall of demand will be much more aggressive and dangerous. In my own personal view, the USA and China are a perfect relations and in the end, will return back to each other as they need each other.
There is no Nobel Prize in Economics.
Alfred Nobel did not create any such thing.
The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics was created by some Swedish bank in the 1960s. Of course using Nobel's name was just a coincidence.
Is ignoring the depreciation of durable consumer goods and not talking about planned obsolescence part of the "Olde Rules?"
What is NDP, Net Domestic Product?
GDP is Grossly Distorted Propaganda
It seemed an interesting talk, until he tells that the state gets its money from peoples savings.
That is dumb and wrong!!!
Even war bonds were never meant to finance war costs!!!
Please dont talk about things that you seemingly dont understand.
He is clearly clueless about some of the things he talks about.
please elaborate
I think all economists are in the bamboozle game, that's what's nice about a good AI because they are clearer.
Such as? Empty criticism is pointless.
Some? - I agree.