Mike and Merritt - Excellent content. Could you please do an in-depth analysis of reading Market Profile and order flow at the POC's and as price trades 2 standard deviations away from VWAP. I'm thinking at both price levels identifying large orders that are stuck long or stuck short and need to puke their position could provide excellent set-ups. Thank you for posting.
I have watched a LOT of videos about volume/market profile lately as it really interests me, and I have to say this is THE MOST INTERESTING video I have seen in a long time. Fantastic view point, and very well explained. More of this please! And great moustache! 👍🏼
it's videos like this that keep me coming back to this channel every single day to see what else you put up. Unreal. I wanna learn more from this guy and everyone at SMB!
Was trading butterfly spreads on WTI back in 2008. The spread went up to -120 ! Crashed from $145 down to $49 within 6 weeks ( Sept - Oct 2008). My P&L for that period was + $10.00 it was the first month I went live!
Very nice content indeed. It's super nice to see how professionals approach the issue compared to the easy trading fantasies that is sold to retail traders.
Thanks Mike and Merritt. It seems Merritt plotted market profile for the US session only. Would it be correct to create a market profile for the combined European and US sessions in one profile?
rather than taking a purely directional position in WTI, could you enter a pairs trade (long WTI/short brent), considering the spread has recently blown out to US$10+? you could probably gear your position up in multiples and a reversion to the mean of say $2-$3 in the spread could pay off very nicely, especially on some serious leverage? would appreciate your thoughts on this cheers
Hi, I would like you to talk about hedging more. Also, does your desk trade options? Right now I only trade Bitcoin futures and the new dollar bitcoin (XBTUSD) swaps. I would like to learn how to do spread trades and cash and carry with futures.
The misconception of this type of trading, such as VWAP, is that you begin to believe that the market is moving to those price levels because that's where VWAP, Pivot Points, Fibonacci numbers, Moving Ave., etc...are currently pointing to, when in reality, all those lines are pointing to those levels because that's where the market is; not the other way around. If you draw enough lines on a chart, eventually the market will hit one, and you can claim your system worked.
With the VWAP it clearly shows in the example that the price in no way respected the VWAP or support and resistance for that matter. It's a lot more like finding patterns where there are none.
Something about futures trading seems to good to be true. If i trade a strategy successfully say trading the ES with 1 contract then over time as the account grows you can take on more contracts so $100 trades now trading 5 contracts would be equivalent to $500. But then the question comes in at what contract level do you hit a market ceiling ? At some point you may suffer slippage, partial fills and low liquidity. So how do u know what that point is ?
Merritt, why does your weekly chart not match up with what I am showing on Sierra Charts and TracingView for that time frame (weekly chart)? Compare your chart to TradingView and let me know if you see a difference. I can't get your chart to match any other historical weekly charts.
This was a great video presentation! Being the next day already, what he has said it showing true in the market. He said he is separated from SMB? How can we see more videos with this approach and presenter?
So you're only a technical trader? does that work for you? you don't look at DX to see if it's cheap or expensive, don't look at the crack spread or Brent/WTI to see if the market is been hedged, don't look at the calendars to determine Demand and supply? just volume profile, tape reading and levels... Well, I guess simple is better.
You have to keep in mind he has his levels set at longer timeframes, as we all saw how he started his analysis at the weekly chart. Calendar spreads would practically speaking be useless since it's safe to assume he's conducting a Miltiple timeframe analysis and executing his signals, which in my opinion is pretty smart in terms of timing as i'm guessing he look for reversals, which will undoubted give him some pretty neat asymetric Risk/reward setups. Smart way of trading if ya ask me.
The cat said he dont keep up with fundamentals and I'm over here wracking my brain to find sound company's with solid earnings. I'm doing something wrong or this guy is a TA genius
+SMB Capital Its been 3 months since this video presentation. Would be great if SMB would follow up on /CL futures, as there's always more to learn and the Mkt is always changing/moving away from one type analysis to another.....after so long a time frame (?)....possibly. @SMB Capital 2/20/19
GREAT, GREAT, GREAT VIDEO! It's like you read my last comment and responded when I said, "More Merritt and more Spencer and your channel will explode." He trades using similar indicators to myself so maybe I have an homogeneity bias, but this video is taking the cake. Been waiting on a bounce since the 10th day down- today's flush probably just washed out the DOM for the real move. Please bring Merritt on more often. Can't wait for his presentation of SMB 12yr Bourbon for the holidays. Did he bring his pet pig to the office? J/K- what a boss.
I can't seem to understand your chart. The prises of the tops and bottoms do not match any of the charts I can see. Take the bottom in oil in 2016 for example, which was 27 and 26 dollars a barrel for brent and WTI respectively. How come your chart show that the bottom is over 36? Reacted to this when i could not find where to draw your thickest line in my chart.
Nice observation. This is likely due to our use of continuous, volume-based rollover, back-adjusted charts. We're picky about that given the nature of the tools we use, vs just using a normal continuous contract.
Imagine oil market, where 1 competitor have 50% of oil producing and his cost per producing barrel is $20...and bunch of other companies have production cost at $35-$50. And market current price of oil is lets say $70, so everybody producing oil at market is happy. But if price drops to say $25, than part of producers go bankrupt or stop producing. And if your production of oil is at $20 cost u can take market share of people that gone bankrupt, because u are still profitable with your cost at $20 and current price of oil at $25. Just an example of how i see his(Meritt) point about taking market share by dropping prices
My prediction, in 2 years or less, i repeat, or less. The price will be 120 dollars per barrel for wti, brent will be more. Lets see my prediction vs someone's wish. It is not all about what you wish.
with all respect, but without arguments/variables of such claim, why it will go to $120, it also looks like a wish. Give some arguments why, so you can take some critics from audience and everybody learn something
![How To Trade Futures Contracts [Full & Live Explanation] | Trading Tutorials](/img/1.gif)
This might be the best technical trader I have ever seen :) fluently presented
thank you for the feedback. nice of you to say.
This is by far the best presentation of an approach I have seen from you guys. A clear objective, replicable take on the market.
SMBs old videos are gold... Merritt, Steven and Mike Bellafiore the absolute best.
Excellent analysis and presentation. Thorough, detailed, no fluff.
Every video explains more than an expensive book, and you have hundreds of them. Amazing.
100% the best moustache on the Street!
no comment. we ought to adopt a policy on this.
Yes, it might very well be TOO seductive.
Legend has it Merritt placed his first trade under the buttonwood tree in 1792, lol.
I can see this guy on a Triumph Bonneville, all class :)
Bahahahaha
Mike and Merritt - Excellent content. Could you please do an in-depth analysis of reading Market Profile and order flow at the POC's and as price trades 2 standard deviations away from VWAP. I'm thinking at both price levels identifying large orders that are stuck long or stuck short and need to puke their position could provide excellent set-ups. Thank you for posting.
I have watched a LOT of videos about volume/market profile lately as it really interests me, and I have to say this is THE MOST INTERESTING video I have seen in a long time. Fantastic view point, and very well explained. More of this please!
And great moustache! 👍🏼
Being mentored by Merritt was definitely one of the highlights of my trading year.
how were you able to be mentored by Merritt?
Some say his moustache has 8 confirmed kills.
Dude, that market profile 30 min bars where prices are spending most time is excellent
absolutely fantastic volumetric analysis of the market.
Loved it!
Much appreciated!
it's videos like this that keep me coming back to this channel every single day to see what else you put up. Unreal. I wanna learn more from this guy and everyone at SMB!
I want this guy more~
The best presenter in your firm!!!
Thanks
thanks for another great video! look forward to more futures content.
Was trading butterfly spreads on WTI back in 2008. The spread went up to -120 ! Crashed from $145 down to $49 within 6 weeks ( Sept - Oct 2008). My P&L for that period was + $10.00 it was the first month I went live!
Very nice content indeed. It's super nice to see how professionals approach the issue compared to the easy trading fantasies
that is sold to retail traders.
Thanks guys I learned a lot by watching these videos and I still am ...
awesome!
I am PA day trading / scalping CL on the 1-min Heikin Ashi, 6 period MA, and MACD. Thoughts? Thank you.
Great vid, gotta check out the vwap indicator.
trading crude oil futures is one of the best market exist ever!!!!
Excellent perspective, thanks.
Excellent stuff. The guy is a good teacher.
that nigga got the funniest mustache while teaching futures😂🤣😆
Sierra Charts - nice platform. Love it!
this video was legit. thanks for the insight.
more from this guy
Very informative... Thanks for the great content...
Good presentation. He reminds me of Ted Lasso.
Thanks Mike and Merritt.
It seems Merritt plotted market profile for the US session only. Would it be correct to create a market profile for the combined European and US sessions in one profile?
Best lesson by far all day, Mike! Hope he does more too! Any others you can point to on the ways he uses the point and figure would be great.
It's not point and figure. It's Market Profile. www.smbfutures.com for a full course on MP.
rather than taking a purely directional position in WTI, could you enter a pairs trade (long WTI/short brent), considering the spread has recently blown out to US$10+? you could probably gear your position up in multiples and a reversion to the mean of say $2-$3 in the spread could pay off very nicely, especially on some serious leverage? would appreciate your thoughts on this cheers
Would love to see more examples of traders expressing their edge in CL. Also let us view some recorded scripts from the slack community room.
Have a look at over a year's worth of live streams from the room: ruclips.net/user/smbfutures
Hi, I would like you to talk about hedging more. Also, does your desk trade options? Right now I only trade Bitcoin futures and the new dollar bitcoin (XBTUSD) swaps. I would like to learn how to do spread trades and cash and carry with futures.
Awesome video Mike. Keep Blacks videos acoming.
Thanks SMB
You bet
The misconception of this type of trading, such as VWAP, is that you begin to believe that the market is moving to those price levels because that's where VWAP, Pivot Points, Fibonacci numbers, Moving Ave., etc...are currently pointing to, when in reality, all those lines are pointing to those levels because that's where the market is; not the other way around. If you draw enough lines on a chart, eventually the market will hit one, and you can claim your system worked.
With the VWAP it clearly shows in the example that the price in no way respected the VWAP or support and resistance for that matter. It's a lot more like finding patterns where there are none.
SMB as always The Best!
Great Video! I'm pretty new to trading futures. What ticker and exchange is the speaker using in this video?
Something about futures trading seems to good to be true. If i trade a strategy successfully say trading the ES with 1 contract then over time as the account grows you can take on more contracts so $100 trades now trading 5 contracts would be equivalent to $500. But then the question comes in at what contract level do you hit a market ceiling ? At some point you may suffer slippage, partial fills and low liquidity. So how do u know what that point is ?
Merritt, why does your weekly chart not match up with what I am showing on Sierra Charts and TracingView for that time frame (weekly chart)? Compare your chart to TradingView and let me know if you see a difference. I can't get your chart to match any other historical weekly charts.
just a great video again, thanks smb. what software is that ?
It's Sierra Chart. We have setup videos and great instruction in our slack room- www.smbfutures.com
Pure gold. Thank you!
Merritt is actually Freddy Mercury. That's bad ass.
Just have a doubt , does oil have some sort of correlation with usdcad?
I am in the us which broker can I use to trade oil please
This was a great video presentation! Being the next day already, what he has said it showing true in the market. He said he is separated from SMB? How can we see more videos with this approach and presenter?
Not separated from SMB. Just starting a new desk. www.smbfutures.com
Awesome stuff Mr. Bellafiore!! Thank you!! Lots of amazing value!!
you are welcome.
So you're only a technical trader? does that work for you? you don't look at DX to see if it's cheap or expensive, don't look at the crack spread or Brent/WTI to see if the market is been hedged, don't look at the calendars to determine Demand and supply? just volume profile, tape reading and levels... Well, I guess simple is better.
You have to keep in mind he has his levels set at longer timeframes, as we all saw how he started his analysis at the weekly chart. Calendar spreads would practically speaking be useless since it's safe to assume he's conducting a Miltiple timeframe analysis and executing his signals, which in my opinion is pretty smart in terms of timing as i'm guessing he look for reversals, which will undoubted give him some pretty neat asymetric Risk/reward setups. Smart way of trading if ya ask me.
In my opinion there can be a temporary uptrend followed by another downtrend move. Market will be stable then.
it bounced quite a bit :)
anyone here because crude oil at 1 dollar?
me
The cat said he dont keep up with fundamentals and I'm over here wracking my brain to find sound company's with solid earnings. I'm doing something wrong or this guy is a TA genius
You can day trade pure price action.
Fundamental traders are usually long term. Technical traders are more short term. Everyone has different styles and approaches
He’s daytrading, you’re investing, totally different
+SMB Capital
Its been 3 months since this video presentation. Would be great if SMB would follow up on /CL futures, as there's always more to learn and the Mkt is always changing/moving away from one type analysis to another.....after so long a time frame (?)....possibly. @SMB Capital 2/20/19
You can go to @smbfutures video channel that does daily reviews or join the smbfutures community.
What software are you using to split your market profile???
We use Sierra Chart
Where can I trade oil futures ?
Crazy to think that gap closed to 42!
What is the platform plz?
Sierrachart
Great video Mr mustache!! Are you on twitter ? great explanation
@merrittblack
if futures lose carry cost over time, how come there is no decay in value
Great stuff
GREAT, GREAT, GREAT VIDEO! It's like you read my last comment and responded when I said, "More Merritt and more Spencer and your channel will explode." He trades using similar indicators to myself so maybe I have an homogeneity bias, but this video is taking the cake. Been waiting on a bounce since the 10th day down- today's flush probably just washed out the DOM for the real move. Please bring Merritt on more often. Can't wait for his presentation of SMB 12yr Bourbon for the holidays. Did he bring his pet pig to the office? J/K- what a boss.
I can't seem to understand your chart. The prises of the tops and bottoms do not match any of the charts I can see. Take the bottom in oil in 2016 for example, which was 27 and 26 dollars a barrel for brent and WTI respectively. How come your chart show that the bottom is over 36? Reacted to this when i could not find where to draw your thickest line in my chart.
Nice observation. This is likely due to our use of continuous, volume-based rollover, back-adjusted charts. We're picky about that given the nature of the tools we use, vs just using a normal continuous contract.
interesting...checked Crude oil and brent futures...yeah chart looks like not an oil futures(atleast continuous)...maybe ETF?
You have missed the point about the new normal which is $42-70. chart works just fine.
Awesome!
those who produce oil believe they use that oil extraction for too long. it might be some cuts soon. it will be permanent cuts.
what does he meant by increase market share to take down other oil companies?
Imagine oil market, where 1 competitor have 50% of oil producing and his cost per producing barrel is $20...and bunch of other companies have production cost at $35-$50. And market current price of oil is lets say $70, so everybody producing oil at market is happy. But if price drops to say $25, than part of producers go bankrupt or stop producing. And if your production of oil is at $20 cost u can take market share of people that gone bankrupt, because u are still profitable with your cost at $20 and current price of oil at $25. Just an example of how i see his(Meritt) point about taking market share by dropping prices
Going below $10
My prediction, in 2 years or less, i repeat, or less. The price will be 120 dollars per barrel for wti, brent will be more. Lets see my prediction vs someone's wish. It is not all about what you wish.
with all respect, but without arguments/variables of such claim, why it will go to $120, it also looks like a wish. Give some arguments why, so you can take some critics from audience and everybody learn something