This bear market is a prime example of why we should have a strong foundation built & cash position in our investment portfolios. Allows you to handle the volatility more comfortably, giving you a peace of mind & take advantage of high-quality companies at a discounted price..
It's true! Many investors try swinging for the fences on high-risk growth stocks, without building a strong foundation first. If you can handle the volatility & invest in great growth companies, there is nothing wrong with that. Most just can't handle the volatility.
I am new to the stock market. Every stock that I bought so far, I was out of luck because I bought them when they were expensive. I feel I missed on all the stock opportunities so far for the tech stocks.I believe having 100k yearly income would be a good investment so I want to plug all my savings into the stock market. I know this sounds a bit dull but I would like to know if I should learn investing or let somebody else (more capable like a Financial coach ) do it for me? Please share your thoughts. I am kind of tired of searching for a good stock to buy and loosing all the good opportunities
Inflation is a disaster. This CPI report is a disaster. The FED is going to have to pull all their punches to stop the housing market. The sad thing is other markets are getting destroyed. Now you gotta rely on a pretty good diversification if you must stay green. Currently up 17% and being cautious. Still better deal than letting it sit in savings or checking earning near 0-1% interest.
Well up at 17% in this present market is impressive. I was wondering if investing in a cumulative ETF during this next decade is a sound investment. Or is it better to invest in a distributing ETF (even considering taxes)?
@@seanwylie7809 ETFs are cool. I have my funds across a number of securities, it's pretty much diversified. You should probably copy a licensed person more so one with experience of the past bear markets. I copy a chartered financial analyst Mary Freed Lorenz. Been quite consistent. My portfolio returned $350k in Q1
@@seanwylie7809 Nah, your money stays in your account. That's the ideal for this system. You can as well opt out anytime, just like Etoro or Collective 2. This lady knows what the heck she's doing. Go get in touch if you need help with this insane market.
It's far too easy for investors to lose perspective. whenever something big goes wrong, a lot of people panic and hold on to money that should be working for them. Looking at history, the markets recovered from corona virus, 2008 crisis, the dotcom crash, even the Great Depression. So they'll probably get through whatever comes next as well. Analysts will talk, stocks will rise and fall
Sir, when you say opportunity cost. However, how would you invest during a bear market then? Please share in your next video. Thanks for your great work.
Can you clarify couple of things from the video? 1. You've hinted that you use 20 EMA vs 20 SMA in another video, which one is the preferred? 2. if MACD crosses above signal line, but is still under 0, can you still take the trade or must the MACD be > 0? Thanks for the great content!
Thanks for sharing such valuable information! Just a quick off-topic question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
You said you like to DCA into your position at 25% drop and then add at every 10% drop. But this video is about only buying back in when price closes above 20MA and MACD line is above the signal line. As the market falls to 25%, your weekly MA and MACD are not signalling a buy opportunity. Could you elaborate on this a little please? Great video by the way, thanks for all your hard work.
Buddy this is a slightly bit different from DCA. IN DCA,he doesn't exit the index , he just keeps adding the money once it's down 25% from Highs. This was a video on how to save opportunity cost and avoid losing significant %of our investment into long bear markets by using MACD and 20 weekly MA.
The lesson, i think, is even if you have strong conviction in a stocks fundamentals, you still go to TA to find entries and exits. Put it on your watchlist and wait
Dear Gareth, In case of stock closed over 20MA and MACD still red you advise not to buy. but sometimes MACD can be green after 1-2 week when price over 20MA. In this case shall we await MACD's turning to green or should we pass this opportunity? In which condition you backtested?
Hello, I've saw many of your videos, great job. My question is: which version of moving average is better to use? 200 DMA or 20 weeks? And on which TF, weekly or monthly?
Absolutely excellent. Many thanks. Virtually all my trading is done on the S&P 500, so it was particularly relevant and helpful. At the moment I'm experimenting with Bollinger bands + MACD. I think one thing worth mentioning is how fast the upward recovery can be - over the last 7 days we've seen the S&P 500 move from 3809 to 4169 - a swing of 8;6%. And whilst one swallow doesn't make a summer, we seem to be coming out of this near bear market faster than we went into it. If you're ever thinking about index trading and Bollinger bands, using a 20 MA, I'd be particularly interested.
Thank you for the content, Gareth! It really helps improving folk's business! Wish you getting 100k subscribers. Just wondering if you could create a video for market, considering that we will go short position sometimes(weekly MACD + MA for ex.)instead of only trying to go long. I ve been personally shorting the indexes for last weeks and recently closed them and went speculative long. Going to gi short again soon enough. Performance is definitely better than buy & hope and without the risk control,what I haven't been doing before finding your channel
Hi Kot - Thanks for the feedback. I could look into some shorting analysis, personally I have a longer term bias and that it how I manage my portfolio, it helps keep probability in my favour. I see moving into a cash position as a type of shorting, therefore getting a bigger position and the ascent back up.
@@FinancialWisdom Thank you for your reply! I am sure it would be quite useful to hear your analysis for the short positioning or long/cash only within margin. For those who want to go short, there is a strategy - a For those who prefer to go cash/bonds, there is a strategy - b I would be happy to hear your strategy and the way of thinking for the opportunity cost and the risk management in these strategies as well. This one might be quite a huge topic, but it would be definitely helpful. Most of us only know how to go long, but knowing these stuff could help thinking in other direction, more likely improving our business. After all, it is interesting how have you applied those knowledge from all the books you read and reviewed on channel. And why wouldn't you be doing that Hope I have managed to describe my thoughts and it would be helpful as an Idea for new videos
@@FinancialWisdom btw - most of my capital is curretly in bonds: maybe you would be interesting in analyzing/reviewing ETFs like TMF(with margin) & TLT - I am sure that it will raise while the market won't be feeling well due to rates hike and inflation. Just as a small note to the mentioned above to get the full picture of what I am talking about As for the shorting, I do keep a small part of a capital for it, like 25% or smth
This is pure gold, amazing video as always. This strategy makes perfect sense, do you recommend close all your position after you get the signal or get out of the position in parts (around 25%) in case its a false signal?
You could do either, there is no right or wrong answer. My preference to an index is to buy the dip and average in on additional dips. Obviously do not do this for singular stocks!
Allways interesting and educative content, many thanks for that! In this clip we assume that we know it's a bear market we enter, however that is rarely the case. And therefor the method is used all year round? In that case how was the outcome of using this method (20W MA + MACD) on all market conditions?
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Very good content as always, thank you . Specially presenting books is unvaluable for further reading. And what is more relevant than this video in the middle of this Vampire market of 2022 ? :)
Not to be confrontational.. But I do expect in bear markets to have reduced losses if you stay less in the market! The issue is spot a bear trend in time to stay away from market in first place
Hi Gareth, Thanks for sharing the knowledge. A quick question, when you are talking about the opportunity cost of the capital being tied up during bear markets if we use simple buy and hold.... Opportunity cost is only when you are able to find better deals than buy and hold approach. But during bear markets, its hard to find better opportunities since the whole market is down ... So its not exactly the opportunity cost is it ???
Opportunity cost is subjective. In a bear market the 'opportunity' is to hold cash, the 'opportunity' is to earn bank interest instead of losing capital etc etc
Hi Gareth. Nice content I have two queries: 1. This 20 day moving average is simple moving average or exponential moving average?? 2. Do you prefer MACD line to come above zero?? ( In this scenario) Thank you in advance
Hi Dr Ashish, Its the simple MA and no I would not require the MACD above zero. The video is thought provoking and is just one way to approach the market. When it comes to an index I prefer the averaging in approach after a dip. My singular stock strategy is different but does weigh heavily on the MA and MACD
Just because the technical figure is 20% and if it hits that number many people will sell due to it being a 'bear market' 20% is ok but im more content with 25% and 35%,45% etc thereafter
In order to make your point relevant, you also need to check the opportunity cost on all the cases when investors sell using ma+macd; the fact is that we don't know when we will get bear market. So this strategy also needs to take into account the cases where you sell, then only to see yhe market bounce again. Moreover why yaking only 5 amd 8 cases only? Why not taking all the cases?
You are right, I try to make these videos thought provoking, but yes the whole picture needs to be assessed. But for this video it was just about limiting losses in a bear market and presenting some historical data. 5 & 8 only for a sample size
Does this mean with this strategy you’d sell pretty much your whole portfolio every time it dipped below 20% for both and buy everything again once it’s above
s&p500 Correct me if I am wrong, but the calculation for averages (30.2, 338, 603, 1.7) are off except for the %declines (30.2). My calculation for the averages came out to be (30.2%...322...585...1.6). did I miss something, please let me know and thanks for the video.
Excellent analysis, thanks! 👌 I have a quick question: 🤷♂️ I only have these words 🤔. (behave today finger ski upon boy assault summer exhaust beauty stereo over). Can someone explain what this is? 😅
Hi boss, what software do you use to make the cartoon video clip? I found the style is quite funny and interesting, not to mention the content is valuable.
If you look at the number of times you are out of market due to this and market just rip higher, it will cover up for these bear market incidents. You are looking at the bear markets in isolation which is not a true picture.
I had been looking at a way of investing into the dip, especially in tech' stocks, but still maintaining diversity so thanks for the ideas and the leg work! I'm on the fence as to whether the tech' sector will rebound to its all time highs in short order though, I suspect some of the highs came directly as a result of fiscal policy and increased demand during Covid and expect the return to be more to the mean than the highs as these companies get more reasoned valuations... or am I massively overthinking things, again!?
Thanks Ken, Yes you could well be right, and sometimes yes we all often overthink things and get analysis paralysis. When it comes to the index I have a long term bias so the more I can get on each dip the better, regardless of what the short/medium term is. Not for singular stocks though!
Hello brother been following u since long .. can u please make a video or recommend a book on interest rates,debt crisis and geopolitical ..thanks in advance
I just have a doubt, after the exit ,when to enter back if the first time the index closes above the 20MA , the macd line is still below the red line ?
What about the returns of the period without bear markets. Any exit strategy will give better returns that exit in bear market. But what about the returns for the years between them. How many false exits and enters.
Absolutely, this is only half the story, but it is more thought provoking than anything else and demonstrates at least how you can limit a drawdown during a bear market.. Buying the dip on an index is my preference
@Financial Wisdom - a bit late on this comment so hopefully you see it: but I also just watched your Dual MACD strategy video and was wondering on which one you prefer, or even better, which one has tested better over the long term? Both similar in nature, but different enough to have some different results I would assume.
Hi - Its different for every asset, they all behave in a different manner. Why not do a visual backtest on an asset you like and see if it conforms to a particular approach.
@@FinancialWisdom that is a good suggestion and I’ll look to apply it. I’m mainly curious to apply these particular strategies to leveraged index ETFs - tqqq, upro, TNA, etc. I think there’s a lot of potential if applied towards those funds.
@@FinancialWisdom if it works out yes. Now factor in the fact that you could be wrong, and just realized an instant loss. CGT should really be mentioned in the video. And you need to look at things on a risk adjusted basis. You can't just assume you can time the market 100% of the time, or even at all.
when you say 20Week MA, is that = 100 day MA or 140day MA? Want to put this in Tradingview but not sure if I should count weekends or not... anyone can clarify?
I notice you say this a lot "I agree with this too", however, is it not implied you agree with the entirety of the video content? furthermore; does it add value to say this , or just confuse the audience whether you are presenting , unbiased thoughts of someone else.?
Investors should avoid picking stocks unless they are actually willing to research the company. If you listen to these RUclips guys and chase big returns by investing in the latest hot stock, you're likely to overpay
Good point buddy! I began investing through RUclips DIY and it’s not been smooth like I imagined. I have started looking for other options to recover my losses and quit investing for good. 5 years of labour left my bank account within months of trying to invest. Lesson learned
@@susangallo7277 I’d suggest you look into passive index fund investing and learn some more. Buy Companies stock which you think has huge potential to grow. For me, I hired a stock expert and she provides entry and exit points on the security I focus on while I go about my other businesses. Investing has no one way to do it, eyes on the prize!!! Mistakes are expensive
Sell your all stock particularly fraud company pnb , India bull group , rbl bank , yes bank , thiz all will come half of the price or may be single digits
I´m sorry to tell, but this is a pretty lame strategy and the examples you showed are cherry-picked. I backtested it on the NDX and the DJI the results are very poor. Either you didn´t explain the whole strategy and something is missing, or it´s really that mediocre. From what I understand, you have to EXIT whenever W1 closes below the MA20 and you only RE-ENTER when W1 closes above the MA20 AND the MACD line is above the MACD signal line. From 2009 to 2019 you would have exited and re-entered higher so many times that one would be better off simply buying and holding. In other words, it works (sort of) fine when PA is aggressively trending. However, if PA is moving slowly or laterally you get so many EXIT/ENTER signs that´s impractical for anyone that´s not a seasoned trader.
Wealth generating strategy: Sell a book/PDF E-Book. Got it. Use my brokerage firm so I can charge a fee for account setup, all trades whether you make money or lose it. I can talk in circles so fast and use fancy charts & graphs to dazzle and amaze and convince you to give me all your money. I've seen lots of ppl who have lost everything but never have I seen a poor money manager/broker. Hmmmmm Whats wrong with this picture? A sucker born everyday & a fool and his money are soon parted. Markets are rigged.
But what you are missing, and this is a big miss is the fact you buy every week, bi weekly, or month. Those gains for the long term are waaaay tremendous and impressive than how u are trying to explain. Your explanation is only based on buying at a lump sum and not dollar cost averaging in with reinvesting the dividends. So you basically explain the video in terms of a day trader or a short term investor. If you did this based on a 401k account simce 1998 to now going through all of those bear markets investing $500 a month every month with reinvesting the dividends itll be 6 million. Why wld u only put buy and hold and not explain as a buy and hold amd continue to buy the dips during the bear markets????? That is really weird. See this becomes someones truth, and ur not educating correctly. Long term gains will always outbeat someone trying to time the market. Dont u remember buffets 1million dollar bet with the supposedly best trader in the world. Ppl be mindful of these ppl who started investing during 2020 and now think they are financial gurus. If u are going to educate then educate. Dont half ass do it
I'm afraid you are incorrect. Also I have been in this game for more than 30 years, not since 2020. What you are explaining is the biggest fallacy sold in the financial markets... for obvious reasons i.e fees etc. Averaging in is a good approach, but surely you would rather average in at low prices not high prices right? I would rather a low average than a high average..... Be careful when making such comments when you have a bias to what the market has sold to everyone else over the years too, it will cost you and others a fortune.
@@FinancialWisdom im super surprised you are saying this. Are you really saying that going in and out of the market amd trying to time the market is a better approach than buying consistently amd holding for the long term??? Especially reinvesting dividends in a bull market? How many millionaires do u know that have become millionaires by your approach? Because we can go to the s&p 500 and look at every employee at every 500 company who has an 401k and have been investing 15% or more to an 401k for about 23years and show u this. Im personally been in the market simce 2005 and I’ve consistently put money in no matter what amd in 2020 in my portfolio alone i was shy a millionaire. How am i bias? My grandfather, father, mother, uncle, aunties, and etc did the same and are well over millionaires. I only brought my family in it because these are ppl I personally know that did it this way. So im not talking about ppl i read, or ppl i think, im talkin about personally seeing this myself, and family and friends. Ive never met more than a handful of traders or ppl who times the market that even gotten close to financial freedom. Im not saying its possible, im not saying more investors that go that approach always tend to blow their accounts up and they miss out on gains. Like me now, during the bull market i stopped investing in my stocks in September 2020 amd started back 39 days ago, and now we are in a beat market i doubled down on my stocks amd i wont stop until we are back in a bull cycle. But I will never pull my money out and miss out on gains from dividends amd compound interest. Im surprised im havimg a convo with someone who is 30 years in and shld know this. Compound interest isnt a fab, it is real and most of our top 1% are there because of compound interest so how is it a fallacy? Smh im 35 yes old, and there is no way i wld had not been here if i went ur route, the rule of 72 is real because I personally seen it myself, compound interest is real because I personally seen it myself, and holding for a minimum of 15yrs is real because im living it myself.
I love bear markets. Made lots of money shorting netflix nvda dis pton AFRM upst Got to a point I made so much money i threw a trailing stop loss and didn't care.
This bear market is a prime example of why we should have a strong foundation built & cash position in our investment portfolios. Allows you to handle the volatility more comfortably, giving you a peace of mind & take advantage of high-quality companies at a discounted price..
Truth! I always keep emergency cash for
expenses and more to take advantage of dips.
It's true! Many investors try swinging for the fences on high-risk growth stocks, without building a strong foundation first. If you can handle the volatility & invest in great growth companies, there is nothing wrong with that.
Most just can't handle the volatility.
@Friedrich I have been doing really good on my investment but this present time got me destabilised. Please i need help and guidance to bounce back.
@@imrann00 Williams Kevin has helped many traders and newbies out there and their program is such a quick way to recover losses after a crash.
@Friedrich I appreciate your help thanks so much for the information.
I am new to the stock market. Every stock
that I bought so far, I was out of luck
because I bought them when they were
expensive. I feel I missed on all the stock
opportunities so far for the tech stocks.I
believe having 100k yearly income would be a good investment so I want to plug all my savings into the stock market. I know this sounds a bit dull but I would like to know if I should learn investing or let somebody else (more capable like a Financial coach ) do it for me? Please share your thoughts. I am kind of tired of searching for a good stock to buy and loosing all the good opportunities
@Corey Andrew Hi, could you be kind enough with info on the investment advisor guiding you?
For more info hit me up
Don't invest, it will take a lot of time
Try swing or positional trading
You can use the dual macd approach, available on the channel
One of the best RUclips animated trading guide ever.
Thanks
Really nice
Wow, thanks!
Your breakdown of tokenomics was incredibly insightful.
you are the only one who tells every aspect of the stock market. thanks for this great upload.
and don't worry there will soon be 100k subs.
I appreciate that!
Inflation is a disaster. This CPI report is a disaster. The FED is going to have to pull all their punches to stop the housing market. The sad thing is other markets are getting destroyed. Now you gotta rely on a pretty good diversification if you must stay green. Currently up 17% and being cautious. Still better deal than letting it sit in savings or checking earning near 0-1% interest.
Well up at 17% in this present market is impressive. I was wondering if investing in a cumulative ETF during this next decade is a sound investment. Or is it better to invest in a distributing ETF (even considering taxes)?
@@seanwylie7809 ETFs are cool. I have my funds across a number of securities, it's pretty much diversified. You should probably copy a licensed person more so one with experience of the past bear markets. I copy a chartered financial analyst Mary Freed Lorenz. Been quite consistent. My portfolio returned $350k in Q1
@@waynespears1327 Do you just give out funds? What are the charges for such services?
@@seanwylie7809 Nah, your money stays in your account. That's the ideal for this system. You can as well opt out anytime, just like Etoro or Collective 2. This lady knows what the heck she's doing. Go get in touch if you need help with this insane market.
It's far too easy for investors to lose perspective. whenever something big goes wrong, a lot of people panic and hold on to money that should be working for them. Looking at history, the markets recovered from corona virus, 2008 crisis, the dotcom crash, even the Great Depression. So they'll probably get through whatever comes next as well. Analysts will talk, stocks will rise and fall
Great video! We did drop 20% this week. We will have a bounce but we will be going down to a lower level.
This is actually I wanted, a fully educational video!
Thanks👍🙏
Sir, when you say opportunity cost. However, how would you invest during a bear market then? Please share in your next video. Thanks for your great work.
Can you clarify couple of things from the video?
1. You've hinted that you use 20 EMA vs 20 SMA in another video, which one is the preferred?
2. if MACD crosses above signal line, but is still under 0, can you still take the trade or must the MACD be > 0?
Thanks for the great content!
Either ema or sma.
No macd does not need to be above zero for me
@@FinancialWisdom Thank you. Appreciate your helpful insights!
Good morning if it is morning there, cuz I am drinking my morning coffee and watching you..... thanks for the share , subbed !
Thanks for the sub!
Thanks for sharing such valuable information! Just a quick off-topic question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
You said you like to DCA into your position at 25% drop and then add at every 10% drop. But this video is about only buying back in when price closes above 20MA and MACD line is above the signal line. As the market falls to 25%, your weekly MA and MACD are not signalling a buy opportunity. Could you elaborate on this a little please? Great video by the way, thanks for all your hard work.
Buddy this is a slightly bit different from DCA. IN DCA,he doesn't exit the index , he just keeps adding the money once it's down 25% from Highs.
This was a video on how to save opportunity cost and avoid losing significant %of our investment into long bear markets by using MACD and 20 weekly MA.
The lesson, i think, is even if you have strong conviction in a stocks fundamentals, you still go to TA to find entries and exits. Put it on your watchlist and wait
Absolutely
Dear Gareth, In case of stock closed over 20MA and MACD still red you advise not to buy. but sometimes MACD can be green after 1-2 week when price over 20MA. In this case shall we await MACD's turning to green or should we pass this opportunity? In which condition you backtested?
Hi - Always MACD positive and price above 20 MA
Hello,
I've saw many of your videos, great job.
My question is: which version of moving average is better to use? 200 DMA or 20 weeks? And on which TF, weekly or monthly?
Absolutely excellent. Many thanks. Virtually all my trading is done on the S&P 500, so it was particularly relevant and helpful. At the moment I'm experimenting with Bollinger bands + MACD. I think one thing worth mentioning is how fast the upward recovery can be - over the last 7 days we've seen the S&P 500 move from 3809 to 4169 - a swing of 8;6%. And whilst one swallow doesn't make a summer, we seem to be coming out of this near bear market faster than we went into it. If you're ever thinking about index trading and Bollinger bands, using a 20 MA, I'd be particularly interested.
Hi Wlliam - Nice to hear your thoughts as always. 👍🙏
…
Thank you for the content, Gareth! It really helps improving folk's business!
Wish you getting 100k subscribers.
Just wondering if you could create a video for market, considering that we will go short position sometimes(weekly MACD + MA for ex.)instead of only trying to go long.
I ve been personally shorting the indexes for last weeks and recently closed them and went speculative long.
Going to gi short again soon enough.
Performance is definitely better than buy & hope and without the risk control,what I haven't been doing before finding your channel
Hi Kot - Thanks for the feedback. I could look into some shorting analysis, personally I have a longer term bias and that it how I manage my portfolio, it helps keep probability in my favour. I see moving into a cash position as a type of shorting, therefore getting a bigger position and the ascent back up.
@@FinancialWisdom Thank you for your reply!
I am sure it would be quite useful to hear your analysis for the short positioning or long/cash only within margin.
For those who want to go short, there is a strategy - a
For those who prefer to go cash/bonds, there is a strategy - b
I would be happy to hear your strategy and the way of thinking for the opportunity cost and the risk management in these strategies as well.
This one might be quite a huge topic, but it would be definitely helpful.
Most of us only know how to go long, but knowing these stuff could help thinking in other direction, more likely improving our business.
After all, it is interesting how have you applied those knowledge from all the books you read and reviewed on channel. And why wouldn't you be doing that
Hope I have managed to describe my thoughts and it would be helpful as an Idea for new videos
@@FinancialWisdom btw - most of my capital is curretly in bonds: maybe you would be interesting in analyzing/reviewing ETFs like TMF(with margin) & TLT - I am sure that it will raise while the market won't be feeling well due to rates hike and inflation.
Just as a small note to the mentioned above to get the full picture of what I am talking about
As for the shorting, I do keep a small part of a capital for it, like 25% or smth
Great video!
When you average into a ETF at -25, -35, ..., is there a point where you sell?
Hi Ray - I want price to at least make a new high and only then consider an exit thereafter, perhaps the 20 week MA cross down etc
This is pure gold, amazing video as always. This strategy makes perfect sense, do you recommend close all your position after you get the signal or get out of the position in parts (around 25%) in case its a false signal?
You could do either, there is no right or wrong answer. My preference to an index is to buy the dip and average in on additional dips. Obviously do not do this for singular stocks!
Pls share MACD settings. Average period, short period & long period. Also what is the average type for MACD. Thank you
Allways interesting and educative content, many thanks for that! In this clip we assume that we know it's a bear market we enter, however that is rarely the case. And therefor the method is used all year round? In that case how was the outcome of using this method (20W MA + MACD) on all market conditions?
Thanks for breaking down the latest trends in the crypto world!
The smart pool additional rights is up and running 🔥
▪️GAT interest rate as high as 0.5%
▪️Large customer interest rate increases by 0.2 - 0.6%
Don't miss it
Excellent video, thank you.
You are welcome!
Only channel speaks every word logical sensible and applicable..lot of effort 🙏🙏 goes into it to impart sensible learnings
Thanks Manish, I try....
@@FinancialWisdom value of your videos more can be understood by those who are in market for long time and seen market crashes👍👍
Great research on this topic!
Thanks 👍
Stats are for calendar days or training days? Thank you.
Very good content as always, thank you . Specially presenting books is unvaluable for further reading. And what is more relevant than this video in the middle of this Vampire market of 2022 ? :)
You're most welcome!
i'd like to see sample sizes with these "what if we did."
Not to be confrontational.. But I do expect in bear markets to have reduced losses if you stay less in the market!
The issue is spot a bear trend in time to stay away from market in first place
Hi Gareth, Thanks for sharing the knowledge. A quick question, when you are talking about the opportunity cost of the capital being tied up during bear markets if we use simple buy and hold.... Opportunity cost is only when you are able to find better deals than buy and hold approach. But during bear markets, its hard to find better opportunities since the whole market is down ... So its not exactly the opportunity cost is it ???
Opportunity cost is subjective. In a bear market the 'opportunity' is to hold cash, the 'opportunity' is to earn bank interest instead of losing capital etc etc
Videos are very informative. Thanks for the efforts 🙂
My pleasure 😊
Great video. If you were to trade tqqq would you do exit / entry on tqqq or from qqq weekly chart?
Thanks
F
Yes I prefer the weekly charts personally
Hi Gareth. Nice content
I have two queries:
1. This 20 day moving average is simple moving average or exponential moving average??
2. Do you prefer MACD line to come above zero?? ( In this scenario)
Thank you in advance
1. SMA 20 Weekly. ive checked it.
Hi Dr Ashish, Its the simple MA and no I would not require the MACD above zero. The video is thought provoking and is just one way to approach the market. When it comes to an index I prefer the averaging in approach after a dip. My singular stock strategy is different but does weigh heavily on the MA and MACD
@@FinancialWisdom Thanks for the reply.
U will surely reach 100,000 subscribers soon. My best wishes with you
@@DrAshishSachan Best wishes to you too, and thanks for all you do...
As always, another great video. What is the statistical reason for you to use 25% instead of 20% drawdown?
Just because the technical figure is 20% and if it hits that number many people will sell due to it being a 'bear market' 20% is ok but im more content with 25% and 35%,45% etc thereafter
In order to make your point relevant, you also need to check the opportunity cost on all the cases when investors sell using ma+macd; the fact is that we don't know when we will get bear market. So this strategy also needs to take into account the cases where you sell, then only to see yhe market bounce again. Moreover why yaking only 5 amd 8 cases only? Why not taking all the cases?
You are right, I try to make these videos thought provoking, but yes the whole picture needs to be assessed. But for this video it was just about limiting losses in a bear market and presenting some historical data. 5 & 8 only for a sample size
One thing now compared to the NASDAQ past CONCENTRATION.
50%+ of the NDX market cap is in the top 10 names, about 12%+ is Apple alone.
Does this mean with this strategy you’d sell pretty much your whole portfolio every time it dipped below 20% for both and buy everything again once it’s above
super content, very helpful.... Many Thanks for putting the efforts!!
Glad it was helpful!
s&p500 Correct me if I am wrong, but the calculation for averages (30.2, 338, 603, 1.7) are off except for the %declines (30.2). My calculation for the averages came out to be (30.2%...322...585...1.6). did I miss something, please let me know and thanks for the video.
Great video thanks
Glad you enjoyed it
Excellent analysis, thanks! 👌 I have a quick question: 🤷♂️ I only have these words 🤔. (behave today finger ski upon boy assault summer exhaust beauty stereo over). Can someone explain what this is? 😅
Thanks. Another great vlog..
Glad you enjoyed it
Hi boss, what software do you use to make the cartoon video clip? I found the style is quite funny and interesting, not to mention the content is valuable.
Nicely done. When you exit your positions in SPY + QQQ do you hold cash (or cash equivalent) of look for some other index while you wait?
Could be cash, crypto, Gold, other ETF's, property, wherever the opportunities arise
Opportunity cost? Where were you putting the money during the draw down?
Wherever the opportunity arises, stay in cash, crypto, gold, real estate the list is endless really
Please make a video on "Minds Over Market" book by Jim Dalton.
Bro, can you make video on quant trading.
Noted 👍
Where do you put the cash while waiting?
What were the moving averages you used for the MACD?
standard settiings
with the opportunity cost... what exactly will you be doing with your money when everything else is falling in a bear market tho??
Moving into other assets with momentum it could be stocks, crypto, commodoties, etc
@@FinancialWisdom lmao crypto is going to zero
If you look at the number of times you are out of market due to this and market just rip higher, it will cover up for these bear market incidents. You are looking at the bear markets in isolation which is not a true picture.
But you won't have the opportunity to use leverage which will make a significant difference.
20 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE OR EXPONTIAL MOVING AVERAGE YOU DISCUSSED ?
Thanks for info
Welcome 👍
Your Videos are amazing.
Glad you think so!
I had been looking at a way of investing into the dip, especially in tech' stocks, but still maintaining diversity so thanks for the ideas and the leg work! I'm on the fence as to whether the tech' sector will rebound to its all time highs in short order though, I suspect some of the highs came directly as a result of fiscal policy and increased demand during Covid and expect the return to be more to the mean than the highs as these companies get more reasoned valuations... or am I massively overthinking things, again!?
Man, we're in a multi-year recession. Id be careful about buying dips
Thanks Ken, Yes you could well be right, and sometimes yes we all often overthink things and get analysis paralysis. When it comes to the index I have a long term bias so the more I can get on each dip the better, regardless of what the short/medium term is. Not for singular stocks though!
Yes careful is key, being measured into buying the dip i.e averaging in is sensible.
Hello brother been following u since long .. can u please make a video or recommend a book on interest rates,debt crisis and geopolitical ..thanks in advance
I really like this guys book, he made a great video on it all too as a summary: ruclips.net/video/xguam0TKMw8/видео.html
Noted
I just have a doubt, after the exit ,when to enter back if the first time the index closes above the 20MA , the macd line is still below the red line ?
What about the returns of the period without bear markets. Any exit strategy will give better returns that exit in bear market. But what about the returns for the years between them. How many false exits and enters.
Absolutely, this is only half the story, but it is more thought provoking than anything else and demonstrates at least how you can limit a drawdown during a bear market.. Buying the dip on an index is my preference
Love from India
Love from UK
Is this how you manage a stocks and shares ISA in the UK or general trading?
@Financial Wisdom - a bit late on this comment so hopefully you see it: but I also just watched your Dual MACD strategy video and was wondering on which one you prefer, or even better, which one has tested better over the long term? Both similar in nature, but different enough to have some different results I would assume.
Hi - Its different for every asset, they all behave in a different manner. Why not do a visual backtest on an asset you like and see if it conforms to a particular approach.
@@FinancialWisdom that is a good suggestion and I’ll look to apply it. I’m mainly curious to apply these particular strategies to leveraged index ETFs - tqqq, upro, TNA, etc. I think there’s a lot of potential if applied towards those funds.
Now factor in CGT for selling and buying back in
Minor in comparison
@@FinancialWisdom if it works out yes. Now factor in the fact that you could be wrong, and just realized an instant loss.
CGT should really be mentioned in the video. And you need to look at things on a risk adjusted basis. You can't just assume you can time the market 100% of the time, or even at all.
Flipping AMAZING!
Welcome 👍
Without the standard deviation the average (mean) doesn't provide anything more than a VERY rough guide.
Fair point, although the data provided will quickly give you that analysis 👍
Insightful
Welcome 👍
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when you say 20Week MA, is that = 100 day MA or 140day MA? Want to put this in Tradingview but not sure if I should count weekends or not... anyone can clarify?
20 week on a weekly candle chart
I notice you say this a lot "I agree with this too", however, is it not implied you agree with the entirety of the video content? furthermore; does it add value to say this , or just confuse the audience whether you are presenting , unbiased thoughts of someone else.?
I'm not sure what you are saying Fred, I just give information and sometimes have a personal view too.
Nice, but when you sell you have to pay taxes too ...
Of course, but this is in all scenarios regardless. Unless you can spread bet or use a tax wrapper like an ISA
What about taxes?
You have to pay them regardless at somepoint
Investors should avoid picking stocks unless they are actually willing to research the company. If you listen to these RUclips guys and chase big returns by investing in the latest hot stock, you're likely to overpay
Good point buddy! I began investing through RUclips DIY and it’s not been smooth like I imagined. I have started looking for other options to recover my losses and quit investing for good. 5 years of labour left my bank account within months of trying to invest. Lesson learned
@@susangallo7277 I’d suggest you look into passive index fund investing and learn some more. Buy Companies stock which you think has huge potential to grow. For me, I hired a stock expert and she provides entry and exit points on the security I focus on while I go about my other businesses. Investing has no one way to do it, eyes on the prize!!! Mistakes are expensive
@@pedrofoye6600 That’s impressive result! how can i reach out to her please, i would really like to give her a trial
Nice
Thanks
just dca all the time and dca harder in s bear market
Its data snooping bias
👍
❤❤❤❤
Sell your all stock particularly fraud company pnb , India bull group , rbl bank , yes bank , thiz all will come half of the price or may be single digits
I´m sorry to tell, but this is a pretty lame strategy and the examples you showed are cherry-picked. I backtested it on the NDX and the DJI the results are very poor. Either you didn´t explain the whole strategy and something is missing, or it´s really that mediocre. From what I understand, you have to EXIT whenever W1 closes below the MA20 and you only RE-ENTER when W1 closes above the MA20 AND the MACD line is above the MACD signal line. From 2009 to 2019 you would have exited and re-entered higher so many times that one would be better off simply buying and holding. In other words, it works (sort of) fine when PA is aggressively trending. However, if PA is moving slowly or laterally you get so many EXIT/ENTER signs that´s impractical for anyone that´s not a seasoned trader.
Wow what an informative video. Had all the data I was looking for in one place along with some good investment advice. Great work
Glad it was helpful!
Wealth generating strategy: Sell a book/PDF E-Book. Got it. Use my brokerage firm so I can charge a fee for account setup, all trades whether you make money or lose it. I can talk in circles so fast and use fancy charts & graphs to dazzle and amaze and convince you to give me all your money. I've seen lots of ppl who have lost everything but never have I seen a poor money manager/broker. Hmmmmm Whats wrong with this picture? A sucker born everyday & a fool and his money are soon parted. Markets are rigged.
But what you are missing, and this is a big miss is the fact you buy every week, bi weekly, or month. Those gains for the long term are waaaay tremendous and impressive than how u are trying to explain. Your explanation is only based on buying at a lump sum and not dollar cost averaging in with reinvesting the dividends. So you basically explain the video in terms of a day trader or a short term investor. If you did this based on a 401k account simce 1998 to now going through all of those bear markets investing $500 a month every month with reinvesting the dividends itll be 6 million. Why wld u only put buy and hold and not explain as a buy and hold amd continue to buy the dips during the bear markets????? That is really weird. See this becomes someones truth, and ur not educating correctly. Long term gains will always outbeat someone trying to time the market. Dont u remember buffets 1million dollar bet with the supposedly best trader in the world. Ppl be mindful of these ppl who started investing during 2020 and now think they are financial gurus. If u are going to educate then educate. Dont half ass do it
I'm afraid you are incorrect. Also I have been in this game for more than 30 years, not since 2020.
What you are explaining is the biggest fallacy sold in the financial markets... for obvious reasons i.e fees etc.
Averaging in is a good approach, but surely you would rather average in at low prices not high prices right? I would rather a low average than a high average.....
Be careful when making such comments when you have a bias to what the market has sold to everyone else over the years too, it will cost you and others a fortune.
@@FinancialWisdom im super surprised you are saying this. Are you really saying that going in and out of the market amd trying to time the market is a better approach than buying consistently amd holding for the long term??? Especially reinvesting dividends in a bull market? How many millionaires do u know that have become millionaires by your approach? Because we can go to the s&p 500 and look at every employee at every 500 company who has an 401k and have been investing 15% or more to an 401k for about 23years and show u this. Im personally been in the market simce 2005 and I’ve consistently put money in no matter what amd in 2020 in my portfolio alone i was shy a millionaire. How am i bias? My grandfather, father, mother, uncle, aunties, and etc did the same and are well over millionaires. I only brought my family in it because these are ppl I personally know that did it this way. So im not talking about ppl i read, or ppl i think, im talkin about personally seeing this myself, and family and friends. Ive never met more than a handful of traders or ppl who times the market that even gotten close to financial freedom. Im not saying its possible, im not saying more investors that go that approach always tend to blow their accounts up and they miss out on gains. Like me now, during the bull market i stopped investing in my stocks in September 2020 amd started back 39 days ago, and now we are in a beat market i doubled down on my stocks amd i wont stop until we are back in a bull cycle. But I will never pull my money out and miss out on gains from dividends amd compound interest. Im surprised im havimg a convo with someone who is 30 years in and shld know this. Compound interest isnt a fab, it is real and most of our top 1% are there because of compound interest so how is it a fallacy? Smh im 35 yes old, and there is no way i wld had not been here if i went ur route, the rule of 72 is real because I personally seen it myself, compound interest is real because I personally seen it myself, and holding for a minimum of 15yrs is real because im living it myself.
I love bear markets. Made lots of money shorting netflix nvda dis pton AFRM upst
Got to a point I made so much money i threw a trailing stop loss and didn't care.