the joi bias was so powerful last banzuke and it probably will be this time. The 3-rank void is a massive vacuum. this ones going to be another interesting one.
It can happen that the push Gonoyama behind Tobizaru and Atamifuji just because he was not in the joi. As well, Churanoumi and Oshoma can be pushed before Midorifuji, Tamawashi and Meisei for the same reason.
The thing that makes me think they won't bump both Chura and Oshoma ahead of Tamawashi and Meisei is that they're clearly more likely to forgo the math if the person being bypassed still gets at least their base promotion. If we leave everyone in order, Tamawashi and Meisei can only get bumped back one spot to still get a full rank promotion. That's why I think Chura might get moved up, but Oshoma won't. Of course, it's possible, but it would be an even stronger move towards joi prioritization than in the last couple banzukes. For the same reason, Tobi and Atami going ahead of Gonoyama gets weird. Everyone's getting under-promoted, but do they try to make sure Tobi and Atami get their full promotions? I don't know.
I think there's an argument to made for Tobizaru ahead of Gonoyama. Gonoyama got 2 more wins starting 3.5 ranks behind Tobizaru and went 2/3 against the Sanyaku compared to Tobizaru's 1/5, so he only got 1 additional Sanyaku win while Tobi had a harder schedule. It's splitting hairs though since putting Gonoyama ahead underpromotes them both by 0.5 while Tobi ahead keeps him at +3 and only underpromotes Gonoyama by 1, which doesn't seem unreasonable considering he came from M8. Could see it going either way tbh.
Two big differences. I have the order from 4w-5w as Chiyoshoma-Ura-Hiradoumi. I also have Kinbozan slotting in at 13w ahead of Hokutofuji. But I may be letting heart rule head as Chiyoshoma and Kinbozan are two of my favourites.
If Kinbozan goes to 13w and Hokutofuji to 14e, then Hokutofuji gets dropped two full ranks with a 7-8 record. I don't think there's a chance that happens to anyone without there being absolutely no other option. Chiyo behind Shodai but ahead of Ura might be the outcome I find least likely. Not that long ago, I'd have thought it plausible because they were getting pretty merciless towards losing records anywhere in maegashira, but now they would have to make another major shift from the last few months to put Chiyo ahead of Ura. Chiyo ahead of Hiradoumi is a maybe since we never know where they're going to draw the line between joi vs. math.
Call me an absolutely insane conspiracy theorist, but I'd actually find it plausible to push Churanoumi up four full ranks to M7, just to properly demote Endo, Roga, Mitakeumi and Midorifuji. A sharp underdemotion, but quite similar to what Shodai and Hiradoumi face with similar matchups. Naturally, Oshoma would need less of a demotion as well in that case. Also less controversial, but I believe Atamifuji will switch places with Tobizaru in this. +2 with 9-6 as M5 is perfectly reasonable.
If bosses want to always demote on losing record if that's possible, then Takarafuji should go to M7e, which will do two things: bump Endo, Mitakeumi and Roga a 0,5 down and keep Ichiyamamoto and and Takarafuji with similar over-promotion.
It's not the worst idea, but they've been stingy with over-promotions, especially from double-digit ranks. This is a case where Ichiyamamoto looks like he's going to get very lucky, not where they're likely to let a second guy get just as lucky.
It would depend on how well he does on the next tournament, if he gets an exceptional result they could promote him, but there is a solid chance that even if he gets the numbers right they might hold him for an extra tournament, given that they have 3 ozeki now. The other thing to consider is how good he is ccompared to the current ozeki, is he just as good, is he worse, if so, what is the gap. He has proven he can stay on sanyaku when he is healthy he has even won against the yokozuna on one ocasion. But how well does he fare against the top guys on a regular basis?
I like Waka, I think he's fun to watch, but a lot of people want to jump on the ozeki hype train for him the instant there's even a hint of a possibility, and we really gotta stop. The JSA made it clear after Onosato's yusho in May that July wasn't going to get him to ozeki because they expected three tournaments in the sanyaku. Based on that, he should only be, at best, one tournament into an ozeki run. Even if they were willing to count the M3 tournament as equivalent to anything else, he'd still need twelve wins, which he's never done at any rank in his career. He's been extremely consistent, but extremely consistent at performing just below a level that would earn the ozeki rank. They might consider it with a 13-win yusho, but look at all the guys around him. I don't know where those wins are supposed to come from even if he has the best 15-day run of his life. Let him hit 12+ in January before the dreams start.
What are some examples of a time where they would open a K2E spot? A JOI guy getting a win when everyone else in the title holders had mid winning records?
The simplest way for it to happen is if both komusubi maintain their ranks and someone has a winning record at M1e. Any winning record at the top maegashira rank is essentially guaranteed a promotion to komusubi, even if they need to open another slot. Outside of that, it generally takes a performance so dominant from a high maegashira rank that it would be simply absurd to not promote the wrestler into the sanyaku. For example, if no regular slot had been open, the general consensus was that Wakatakakage would only be moved up to M1e despite having a 10-5 record at M2e. However, Abi probably would have been given an extra K slot if necessary with his 11 wins at M3e. That gives you an idea where the line is generally considered to be.
I know this is just a preliminary guess and the GTB plan comes later, but do you see a possibility of Sada getting saved at M17 at the expense of either Toki or Tamashoho?
It's really hard to imagine Sadanoumi being kept in and Toki getting dropped. The only way a move like that happens is if the guy with the better losing record needs to get dunked to receive an "acceptable" demotion, but in this case Toki is already losing two ranks dropping to M17. That's perfectly fine. Division swaps can get weird, but Tamashoho already looks like he'll land well ahead of Toki, so that seems at least equally unlikely.
The YDC may give some hint as to their thoughts in the coming days, but I'd expect it to take a minimum of exactly what happened this time except with Hoshoryu winning. (Maybe a 13-2 from each with a playoff.) In that case, they'd have to either promote both or neither, and neither is still a possibility. If Koto finishes 12-3 with a JY, I don't think they'll consider that yusho equivalent, and so I don't think he'll make it (although the bar might be lowered a bit for him to get there in March). If Hoshoryu wins at 12-3, it could well be viewed as only one traditional yusho-winning score, and thus he would also have to wait until March. Basically, neither guy has a history of dominance expected from a yokozuna, so I think they're inclined to err on the side of caution that they don't wind up with someone who can't fight to the expectations of the rank. That means not taking any two tournaments that look good enough and throwing them the rope. That said, it's possible the YDC is inclined to make it easier in order to let Terunofuji retire, but I have no idea how much that plays into the decision.
@@sumospiffysbarandgrillI’d want either to be as dominant as they were this month for longer than one basho to reach Yokozuna. They need to generate fear, not apprehension.
Kisenosato had a history of dominant performances at that point-twelve (!!) jun-yushos and a whole pile of 13-win performances. From May 2013 to November 2016 (right before his yusho), he literally JY'd 50% of the tournaments. Koto has three JYs and a single 13-win tournament before this one. If they're really nice, maybe he gets there with a 13+ win jun-yusho, but I suspect even then he only makes it if Hoshoryu wins the yusho and both can be promoted at once.
If you mean why isn't he fighting, he's the yokozuna and thus can take off as much time as he wants (or at least until the guys in charge tell him he needs to fight). His body is so wrecked that maybe he'll get in two good tournaments per year.
Enho should be at the top of Sandanme. He would have had to go 7-0 to make the bottom of Makushita. 6-1 is close but not quite close enough, based on history.
Almost Hoshoryu, good effort. Congratulations Koto for the first yusho.
WAKA BRAHS IN SANYAKUU HELL YEAH
Next video we need you to say Tochitaikai tied 10 times fast. Great as always!
Wakatakakage in sanyaku and Hakuoho finally back in the top division! Let's gooooo!
I've only been watching for the last six months and Wakatakakage looks amazing! Was he injured to fall that far in the first place?
@@Einveldi yeah knee injury, he was a sekiwake before the injury
My own attempt at an instant banzuke worked out way better than last time. Learning a lot from your videos. :)
Something about Ryuden being back in Juryo must make you happy!
Sometimes it's not necessary to rub it in. Sometimes you can just smile.
the joi bias was so powerful last banzuke and it probably will be this time. The 3-rank void is a massive vacuum. this ones going to be another interesting one.
The basho wasn’t even over and I was thinking ‘Excess Wins’!
Poor Shodai is probably thinking, "Hey, I'd be fine with M7! Put me down there so I can chill out. Sanyaku was too much effort"
Love this videos! Thx!!
It can happen that the push Gonoyama behind Tobizaru and Atamifuji just because he was not in the joi. As well, Churanoumi and Oshoma can be pushed before Midorifuji, Tamawashi and Meisei for the same reason.
The thing that makes me think they won't bump both Chura and Oshoma ahead of Tamawashi and Meisei is that they're clearly more likely to forgo the math if the person being bypassed still gets at least their base promotion. If we leave everyone in order, Tamawashi and Meisei can only get bumped back one spot to still get a full rank promotion. That's why I think Chura might get moved up, but Oshoma won't. Of course, it's possible, but it would be an even stronger move towards joi prioritization than in the last couple banzukes.
For the same reason, Tobi and Atami going ahead of Gonoyama gets weird. Everyone's getting under-promoted, but do they try to make sure Tobi and Atami get their full promotions? I don't know.
I just cant wait for the tier list recap xD
I think there's an argument to made for Tobizaru ahead of Gonoyama. Gonoyama got 2 more wins starting 3.5 ranks behind Tobizaru and went 2/3 against the Sanyaku compared to Tobizaru's 1/5, so he only got 1 additional Sanyaku win while Tobi had a harder schedule. It's splitting hairs though since putting Gonoyama ahead underpromotes them both by 0.5 while Tobi ahead keeps him at +3 and only underpromotes Gonoyama by 1, which doesn't seem unreasonable considering he came from M8. Could see it going either way tbh.
Shodai Yokozuna run in 2025
Thanks
0:09-0:14 fifteen days in less than fifteen seconds, but I wouldn't have made a better briefing 😂
Thank you for the video as always.
Overall, your instant banzuke looks balanced and well explained.
My banzuke thinks that there can never be too much joi bias and limits overpromotions if possible.
You want to "destroy" Ichiyamamoto, I want to save him.
- Y = Terunofuji -
- O1 = Kotozakura Hoshoryu -
- O2 = Onosato -
- S1 = Daieisho Wakamotoharu -
- K = Abi Wakatakakage -
- M1 = Takanosho Kirishima -
- M2 = Gonoyama Tobizaru -
- M3 = Atamifuji Oho -
- M4 = Shodai Ura -
- M5 = Hiradoumi Chiyoshoma-
- M6 = Takyasu Churanoumi -
- M7 = Endo Mitakeumi -
- M8 = Ichiyamamoto Roga -
- M9 = Oshoma Takarafuji -
- M10 = Tamawashi Midorifuji -
- M11 = Meisei Nishikigi -
- M12 = Takerufuji Onokatsu -
- M13 = Shonannoumi Hokutofuji -
- M14 = Kinbozan Kotoshoho -
- M15 = Hakuoho Kitanowaka -
- M16 = Tamashoho Kagayaki -
- M17 = Nishikifuji Tokihayate -
--- ---
- J1 = Shiden Sadanoumi -
- J2 = Asakoryu Ryuden -
- J3 = Kayo Tsurugisho -
- J4 = Shishi Shirokuma -
- J5 = Shimanoumi Aonishiki -
- J6 = Hidenoumi Tomokaze -
- J7 = Tochitaikai Fujiseiun -
- J8 = Bushozan Daiseizan -
- J9 = Mitoryu Oshoumi -
- J10 = Shimazuumi Hakuyozan -
- J11 = Daiamami Tohakuryu -
- J12 = Hatsuyama Kiryuko -
- J13 = Wakaikari Kotoeiho -
- J14 = Nabatame Daishoho -
Hey now, I don't *want* to destroy Ichi... I can't help it if it looks inevitable at M6!
Nishikifuji with the great escape once again lol
I'm still gutted over how the Yusho decider ended. Not for who won, but for how it played out. Hate seeing guys lose by just slipping.
It wasn't just slipping, Kotozakura pushed his head down and made him fall, it was good defense.
Two big differences. I have the order from 4w-5w as Chiyoshoma-Ura-Hiradoumi. I also have Kinbozan slotting in at 13w ahead of Hokutofuji. But I may be letting heart rule head as Chiyoshoma and Kinbozan are two of my favourites.
If Kinbozan goes to 13w and Hokutofuji to 14e, then Hokutofuji gets dropped two full ranks with a 7-8 record. I don't think there's a chance that happens to anyone without there being absolutely no other option.
Chiyo behind Shodai but ahead of Ura might be the outcome I find least likely. Not that long ago, I'd have thought it plausible because they were getting pretty merciless towards losing records anywhere in maegashira, but now they would have to make another major shift from the last few months to put Chiyo ahead of Ura. Chiyo ahead of Hiradoumi is a maybe since we never know where they're going to draw the line between joi vs. math.
The Japan sumo association lets the sake do the math. These are a lot of fun anyway.
Call me an absolutely insane conspiracy theorist, but I'd actually find it plausible to push Churanoumi up four full ranks to M7, just to properly demote Endo, Roga, Mitakeumi and Midorifuji. A sharp underdemotion, but quite similar to what Shodai and Hiradoumi face with similar matchups. Naturally, Oshoma would need less of a demotion as well in that case.
Also less controversial, but I believe Atamifuji will switch places with Tobizaru in this. +2 with 9-6 as M5 is perfectly reasonable.
If bosses want to always demote on losing record if that's possible, then Takarafuji should go to M7e, which will do two things: bump Endo, Mitakeumi and Roga a 0,5 down and keep Ichiyamamoto and and Takarafuji with similar over-promotion.
It's not the worst idea, but they've been stingy with over-promotions, especially from double-digit ranks. This is a case where Ichiyamamoto looks like he's going to get very lucky, not where they're likely to let a second guy get just as lucky.
Hatsuyama and Kiryukou are announced to be promoted to Juryo. Who gets demoted from Juryo to Makushita?
Onosho and Chiyomaru.
Unrelated, but is Wakamotoharu on a very quite Ozeki run or do you think M3 in the first basho is too low?
It Can work
I think he'd have to go 13+ wins, but they could give it to him if he does well enough
It would depend on how well he does on the next tournament, if he gets an exceptional result they could promote him, but there is a solid chance that even if he gets the numbers right they might hold him for an extra tournament, given that they have 3 ozeki now.
The other thing to consider is how good he is ccompared to the current ozeki, is he just as good, is he worse, if so, what is the gap. He has proven he can stay on sanyaku when he is healthy he has even won against the yokozuna on one ocasion. But how well does he fare against the top guys on a regular basis?
I like Waka, I think he's fun to watch, but a lot of people want to jump on the ozeki hype train for him the instant there's even a hint of a possibility, and we really gotta stop. The JSA made it clear after Onosato's yusho in May that July wasn't going to get him to ozeki because they expected three tournaments in the sanyaku. Based on that, he should only be, at best, one tournament into an ozeki run.
Even if they were willing to count the M3 tournament as equivalent to anything else, he'd still need twelve wins, which he's never done at any rank in his career. He's been extremely consistent, but extremely consistent at performing just below a level that would earn the ozeki rank. They might consider it with a 13-win yusho, but look at all the guys around him. I don't know where those wins are supposed to come from even if he has the best 15-day run of his life.
Let him hit 12+ in January before the dreams start.
Why does it feel like Churanoumi and oshoma will be the banzuke wreckers this time around?
Because you pay attention and nothing about that section feels *that* solid.
What are some examples of a time where they would open a K2E spot? A JOI guy getting a win when everyone else in the title holders had mid winning records?
The simplest way for it to happen is if both komusubi maintain their ranks and someone has a winning record at M1e. Any winning record at the top maegashira rank is essentially guaranteed a promotion to komusubi, even if they need to open another slot.
Outside of that, it generally takes a performance so dominant from a high maegashira rank that it would be simply absurd to not promote the wrestler into the sanyaku. For example, if no regular slot had been open, the general consensus was that Wakatakakage would only be moved up to M1e despite having a 10-5 record at M2e. However, Abi probably would have been given an extra K slot if necessary with his 11 wins at M3e. That gives you an idea where the line is generally considered to be.
I know this is just a preliminary guess and the GTB plan comes later, but do you see a possibility of Sada getting saved at M17 at the expense of either Toki or Tamashoho?
It's really hard to imagine Sadanoumi being kept in and Toki getting dropped. The only way a move like that happens is if the guy with the better losing record needs to get dunked to receive an "acceptable" demotion, but in this case Toki is already losing two ranks dropping to M17. That's perfectly fine.
Division swaps can get weird, but Tamashoho already looks like he'll land well ahead of Toki, so that seems at least equally unlikely.
Got it quite similar, guess my biggest blunder will be leaving Sadanoumi instead of Tokihayate in the top division.
I still don't understand the math... 😂
Abi was demoted last time from sekiwake with 5:10. But with 10:5 now he only gets komusubi? 🤔
So what are the double Yokozua promotion scenarios going into January?
The YDC may give some hint as to their thoughts in the coming days, but I'd expect it to take a minimum of exactly what happened this time except with Hoshoryu winning. (Maybe a 13-2 from each with a playoff.) In that case, they'd have to either promote both or neither, and neither is still a possibility.
If Koto finishes 12-3 with a JY, I don't think they'll consider that yusho equivalent, and so I don't think he'll make it (although the bar might be lowered a bit for him to get there in March). If Hoshoryu wins at 12-3, it could well be viewed as only one traditional yusho-winning score, and thus he would also have to wait until March.
Basically, neither guy has a history of dominance expected from a yokozuna, so I think they're inclined to err on the side of caution that they don't wind up with someone who can't fight to the expectations of the rank. That means not taking any two tournaments that look good enough and throwing them the rope. That said, it's possible the YDC is inclined to make it easier in order to let Terunofuji retire, but I have no idea how much that plays into the decision.
@@sumospiffysbarandgrillI’d want either to be as dominant as they were this month for longer than one basho to reach Yokozuna. They need to generate fear, not apprehension.
Think Terunofuji is going to come out of retirement to throw a wrench in January?
Kisenosato was promoted to yokozuna after winning only one tournament as ozeki, can kotozakura become yokozuna like that
Kisenosato had a history of dominant performances at that point-twelve (!!) jun-yushos and a whole pile of 13-win performances. From May 2013 to November 2016 (right before his yusho), he literally JY'd 50% of the tournaments. Koto has three JYs and a single 13-win tournament before this one. If they're really nice, maybe he gets there with a 13+ win jun-yusho, but I suspect even then he only makes it if Hoshoryu wins the yusho and both can be promoted at once.
Question, what is the 'j' for, behind Hoshoryu's name?
It shows he got the jun-yusho (second place).
Much appreciated
Why terunofuji never appeared anymore?🤔
If you mean why isn't he fighting, he's the yokozuna and thus can take off as much time as he wants (or at least until the guys in charge tell him he needs to fight). His body is so wrecked that maybe he'll get in two good tournaments per year.
Кинбозану не повезло с этим банзуке😮.
Being in juryo has its downsides.
What about Makushita? Do we will see Enho there?
Folks more knowledgeable than me say he should be near the top of sandanme, but is unlikely to reach makushita.
Enho should be at the top of Sandanme. He would have had to go 7-0 to make the bottom of Makushita. 6-1 is close but not quite close enough, based on history.
Did you see Hoshoryu slip like a sucka😂😂😂😂 He’s my favorite Rikishi but that was some weak sauce
I hope Koto wins January so Teru can retire.. hes in pain and needs to retire honestly for health
Takarafuji has to follow Ichiyamamoto in front of the M7 (7-8) guys doesn’t he? The latter must lose at least half a rank.
8-7 has to gain at least half a rank unless it's impossible to do so. 7-8 can stay in place, and pretty frequently does.