Hey Ben, l gave up telling my friends about China. I've been there twice and on the last time even did a summer course at Tianjin Foreign Studies University to improve my mandarin. When I returned to Portugal and shared my experience people started to call me names... 🤦🏾♂️ I just don't understand that in the 21st century with so much information available online people are more ignorant than ever!
Isn't it a strange phenomenon that the IQ of many people in the western world have plummeted to an all time low level after recovering from the COVID pendamic? The Anglo Saxon media are so good in smearing and demonising China that the general public in the world that relies on western media actually believe that China is so bad economically that the Chinese economy is going bankrupt and will collapse very soon.The very renowned Economic journal from Britain report ed some 10 years ago Chinese economy is coming to an end! What a shocking and alarming news! This kind of news has distorted the people's view on China and they regarded China as a poor country run by incompetent people! What a joke! And worse, anyone who deals with Chinese people are stupid and laughable!
A very knowledgeable.. unbiased..impartial...accurate. impeccable analysis of the current economic position of China... The recent stock market crash in China with about 75% of foreign inveators, especially the US withdrawal from CSE, is now being replaced by the local investors. institutions..and state governments which started the frenzy bullish rally recently..
True AI should be knowledgeable.. unbiased..impartial...accurate., unless the fake AI is programmed to be knowledgeable.. biased..partial...inaccurate. and double standard, etc....... China and the Chinese are the most materialistic on earth. Take AI for example, since AI is a series or a net of machines, I view AI as material. Therefore, China, as the most materialistic country on earth, will love AI, for a true AI would be impartial, single standard or not double standards, if not just, for example, color blind or race blind. The only problem AI presents to China is the pretended AI, which is programmed with bias and racism, etc. For example, in religion and politics, western AI will never surpass Western humans in reading the Bible and understanding democracy, while the Chinese surpassed religion and Western democracy long ago. So, the West is truly afraid of AI and must take the lead or control for now, for otherwise, the rule-oriented Westerners would replace their priests, lawyers, judges, politicians, and even medical doctors with AI because a machine is better at following the rules than humans. If the West being rule-oriented is a lie, the West would be scared of AI even more because a machine would find inconsistencies easily.
New subscriber! Just happened to come across your channel and I really enjoyed hearing your thoughts on China.. It is always more credible to listen to one lives n work in the country for years than an outsider who has absolutely no ground experience.. you gave your impartial opinions n I enjoyed your contents.
It's funny that I happened to see your video side by side with another China news video, and just because that one has the screaming headline entitled 'China's lost decade', it has 80k views, comparative to yours few thousand. Yet I found your video to be steeped in logic and assessment, while the other one is negative sensationalism. That's how RUclips tweaked its algorithm.
Zeihan may have visited China in the early 90s & his perspective is deep-frozen there. Cheap sneakers, toys & low-end gadgets are what he thinks China is at. He's mention this repeatedly in recent RUclipss. He's a waste of space & so is Chang who in 2001 published a book The Coming Collapse Of China.
It's important to study and analyse historical failure cases. Japan's economic failure is a classic textbook case study. China also needs to study their own past mistakes on solutions selection. China's biggest asset is their vast number of intellectuals, be it economists or technologists as well as a hard working and committed workforce.
Japan so called economic failure was engineered to collapse by the US as Japan was due to over take them economically.. Japan was forced to sign treaties to open up.. in doing so it cause over speculation they knew will end in a crash.. that's exactly what happen.. but they didn't have the same luck with a 5000 year old China with 1:4 billion people.. the US is now irrelevant to the rest of the world..
I like this statement. The speaker refuses to put a country's social ambition into a political frame. I guess this is why I listened to the whole session.
Chinas development over the past decades has had its problems yet the big difference between China and the US is that China can question its own process while the US refuses to question its decision making.
Great video at all, I really agree with the last few sentences from yours, let's not simply put a country's social ambitions into a political framework, and divide a country along with its ideology communist/socialist or capitalist that to miss the key point of what a country ought to achieve as a national objective. If people still judge one nation by their stereotype of its ideology instead of understanding a country from every aspect, people will eventually lose the opportunity to global vary.
About AI, I disagree on your projection that China will not/can not be the leader because its data is not "real". You seemed to have misunderstood AI. Not only Artificial means 'not real", it also come before Intelligence. China's flavor of AI may not be to many people's liking, doesn't mean it cannot be leading. That's scary, but that's also intrinsically what AI is.
Good comment here. I subscribed. China is not a capitalist country. Its a socialist country with capitaistic characteristics. And the groeth of capitalism have to serve the country and its people. Unlike capitalism in other countries that only enrich the elites at the expense of common people. This is the main reason that people misunderstood china .
I think your point on AI is a bit off. AI is much bigger than language models. The perceived lead that US had in AI is almost entirely based on ChatGPT, which doesn’t represent the whole AI at all. As a matter of fact, ChatGPT is English only and it shows why China isn’t in the spotlight, because China’s language models are based on Chinese, which isn’t a world language like English is. Pure AI isn’t language based and information control doesn’t in any way hinder the development of AI technologies. Data engineering is a key part of training AI models, and the amount of data cleansing is way more than what the Chinese government ever did in information control.
A fair report, mainly. But your idea that China cannot lead in AI is partly true but mostly false. China cannot lead in a project like Chat GPT because of the type of open Large Language Model needed. That is a small part of AI. Progress in AI applications in the fields of research and development in biotechnology, agriculture, health, engineering, all branches of science, and even law can proceed without hindrance despite the preference of the government's view of desirable political viewpoints. The blinders placed on China are exaggerated.
On the topic of AI, you are referring to the informational AI aspect like Chat Gbt. But China is already ahead in other areas like robotics, autonomous driving, port loading unloading, and drones. So, China would not be trailing in the future of AI.
@serriajohn ChatGbt is a western propaganda tool. Try to ask Gemini Bard on certain topics and it'll give you an American version answer. And it'll even argue with you to insist it's right. Try asking it about what it can't find in google, like content in Baidu and it can't tell you.
China and the Chinese are the most materialistic on earth. Take AI for example, since AI is a series or a net of machines, I view AI as material. Therefore, China, as the most materialistic country on earth, will love AI, for a true AI would be impartial, single standard or not double standards, if not just, for example, color blind or race blind. The only problem AI presents to China is the pretended AI, which is programmed with bias and racism, etc. For example, in religion and politics, western AI will never surpass Western humans in reading the Bible and understanding democracy, while the Chinese surpassed religion and Western democracy long ago. So, the West is truly afraid of AI and must take the lead or control for now, for otherwise, the rule-oriented Westerners would replace their priests, lawyers, judges, politicians, and even medical doctors with AI because a machine is better at following the rules than humans. If the West being rule-oriented is a lie, the West would be scared of AI even more because a machine would find inconsistencies easily.
Two most important things that Chinese understand: 1) no matter what "ism" or system you use, if it can't improve people's life, it meaningless! Good governance is the key! 2) social stability, if the society is not stable, nothing can be done, let alone any improvement. In a country of chaos or worse, of war, you are not able to do your business, let alone expand it, peole will lost jobs and become refugees, you can't even walk your kids to school..... any development and improvement is impossible. US launched media war against China trying to break people trust to their government and bring chaos to the country, so later on they can provoke colour revolutions and overthrow the government, so I understand why Chinese government need censorship to protect its country.
Exactly. US dominance in the global information space means continuous attempt at subverting sovereign nations’ info space, which would lead to manipulation of people to create unrest. This is extremely dangerous for any country who wants to remain truly sovereign. That’s why China is determined to control that space. But make no mistake, the US is doing the same.
In other words, China and the Chinese are the most materialistic on earth. Take AI for example, since AI is a series or a net of machines, I view AI as material. Therefore, China, as the most materialistic country on earth, will love AI, for a true AI would be impartial, single standard or not double standards, if not just, for example, color blind or race blind. The only problem AI presents to China is the pretended AI, which is programmed with bias and racism, etc. For example, in religion and politics, western AI will never surpass Western humans in reading the Bible and understanding democracy, while the Chinese surpassed religion and Western democracy long ago. So, the West is truly afraid of AI and must take the lead or control for now, for otherwise, the rule-oriented Westerners would replace their priests, lawyers, judges, politicians, and even medical doctors with AI because a machine is better at following the rules than humans. If the West being rule-oriented is a lie, the West would be scared of AI even more because a machine would find inconsistencies easily.
@@一个说话大声的中国人Capitalism and communism are just deceptive terms coined by the West for divisive ideologies. As countries, there is no such thing as capitalism or communism, and every country has the same problems: how to make life better for its people, how to deal with foreign relations, how to deal with economic problems, how to build industry and agriculture, and so on. The key is how do rulers set up policies that give people justice
To understand China one must evaluate their own axiomatic assumptiond of what economics is. There is a big difference between the unipolar world of the Malthusian-Hobbesian west and the multipolar❤ Confucian-Hamiltonian China.
I think you have fairly portrayed China from successes to possible failures. I take issue with your conclusion on AI. AI has very little to do with censorship in most operational and data driven actions. Things like making the right decision on medical treatment, things like potential for new drugs, things like the best structural design given the guiding parameters, things like warfare strategies knowing the enemies past behavior. All these AI applications are not deterred by censorship. Having said that, the US fears China because of its huge population giving it a more nuanced and in depth data base to draw from. As for China's manufacturing, in the past it was labor intensive manufacturing that China grew from. Today the Paradigm is different. China knows to sustain itself by its past manufacturing skills will keep its citizens trapped below the middle income level. China is a history observant government and it has seen Singapore, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea's jumping the middle income trap by moving from cheap labor to technology driven, highly brain skilled professions and products. That is the course China is taking today and the US is obviously afraid of that rise. The US has had a monopoly position on many tech sectors and it sees China superseding the US, so the US has tried everything short of war to stop China's technology rise. The afore mentioned countries rose with US assistance because they did not pose the threat that China does. Today, in my opinion, the US has lost the race to China and China will be the dominant technology force in this decade and beyond. China has steered its youth to study STEM subjects and groomed them for STEM jobs of today and the future. Everyone cites China's aging demographics and fewer births causing a decline in population, but in reality that is an asset. In technology, it needs fewer sweat labor jobs and more brain creative innovative jobs. The number of tech jobs will be less than the sweat labor jobs. It remains to be seen how this plays out, but China is clearly on this path. Those jobs that require sweat labor are being offshored. The US claims this as proof that China does not provide the right environment for manufacturing without realizing what they have said. Today the US is paranoid of every action China takes. Instead of trying to work with China the US is on a path of 'winner take all' and by now, it knows it is losing and doesn't know what to do except to react with sanctions and restrictions, and even more.
Great analysis. However, in my opinion. You may not have enough understanding of AI. You were referring to large language model when you were speaking about AI. But that is only one area of AI. What you said concerning this area is also not really correct.
I am not sure why you think AI development is related to curation of information. Not allowing misinformation is bad for AI development? Surely self-driving technology will not be hampered by censorship?
China with its millions of Stem engineers Yearly and the 1.4b population that supports new tech, will win on its own terms as most countries will follow chinese tech.
Mao Zedong passed away at the age of 82 and Deng Xiaoping at the age of 92. By these statistics, the current chairman is still young. However, if his health failed unexpectedly, who could be a possible successor, and would the successor continue with the road to common prosperity or turn back to opening up and reform?
Emmanuel Daniel, you're an insightful person on the general state of China. However, when it comes to technology including A.I., I think you and I are no expert and I sense you're still a byproduct of the Western propaganda influence. I think the subtle difference in perspective is how the Chinese government deem as the key factors in stabilizing their nations and NOT necessarily in pre-determining what are the prefiltering criteria. Just my 2 cents.
Love the video! With AI. We really need to break it down - China will never be a leader in the sociological aspects of AI for the reasons you put, but if we talk about STEM-AI, I surely see them leading - AI to calculate new paths in Science or Engineering is almost certain to be dominated by China because they produce by far the most research and graduates in that area and none of that data is constrained in China. So we'll see a bifurcation in AI and the US will keep the field that dominates the social world, China the 'hard' AI.
Thank you Emmanuel for this factual and objective assessment, something you hardly see in western mainstream media for quite some time. Fun fact : When you translate the Chinese New Year greeting, it means ‘I hope you get rich’.
it is lunar in the sense the ancient chinese created the lunar calendar and the emperor officially made the beginning of each new lunar year the chinese new year . .
not a bit exaggeration to say that as I actually heard a webinar discussion panel consisting of their think tank pple and an american diplomat to China bladdy saying to the same effect
oh you trust china🤣they already occupied lots of india's land in past. and also occupied tibet. and they are also trying to occupy taiwan. they are doing expansion. now they are trying to occupy south indian sea that belongs to india. they want to be hegemonic in sounth indian sea.
@@nanyanguo1 xin jin pig🐽's ccp slave don't know what is south indian sea. go and search about what is south indian sea. sri lanka already trapped by china 's debt trap and next is maldives.
Good start by looking into what China wants to do. Instead of what the West wants China to do.... Looking to hear more, specially, if you could dig deeper with your experience.
Good observations and unbiased views, interesting to watch further. Agree with you that for China, unlike many countries, just listen carefully to official news what they want to do. Then is matter of how fast & well they can execute, some areas better than others. Many other countries, these messages are mixed with electoral rhetoric. That's where intimate knowledge of the country & being on the ground is handy. On Common Prosperity, my observation that China wants to emulate "a Singapore vs a Hong Kong" from 80s-90s, both after facing decades of remarkable growth, and recognized as Asian Tigers. Hong Kong continue on, income, wealth & opportunities gaps got much wider, while Singapore focus on somewhat common prosperity, bring up other industries, capabilities - slowed down quite a bit, much economic friction before growing again. The impact is stark. Now when the region, their neighbours grew, Singapore had also grew keeping the competitive gap. However Hong Kong appeared left behind. On AI, my view differs. Due to China's censorship, restrictions & closed system, it is in fact much more open system than elsewhere. Many countries, especially West, has lots of privacy & restrictions on sharing even most basic of data even without PII for many industries. My visit to an innovation center in Beijing a decade ago, saw that they did facial recognition in public places, offices, retail shops with objective to improve customer services, understand emotions, prevent harassments, improve productivity etc. My colleague & I softly said, our office security cameras had to position so that cannot even look at any employee monitor for privacy, so much restrictions. Then look at data for healthcare, motor accidents, AML and many more use cases. So for AI, China is growing much faster because of availability of data for use with limited restrictions compared with Western countries, non-West less restrictive but lacks the data or scale (big cities mainly). However USA will still dominate in GenAI from huge global talent pool and money. However China would come on top, if not very close match for AI & ML. Just my thoughts.
War and economics experts suggest that we all must focusing on how to help usa pay off usa very very hugh financial debts troubles now??... how can vusa able to pay of usa overprinted dollars debts of 500 trillion usa very very hugh financial debts troubles now???... We strongly believes that usa will not survive till 2024??? How are usa able to payback usa very Hugh financial debts troubles now????...
No problem with that - just print more US$. As long as other I diotic govts around the world, including China continues to accept US$, then the US can keep printing and keep over spending. A side note : The US GDP growthis not a measure of increased productivity, but is an inflationary number. - If I sell a loaf of bread for $1 today and sell the same one loaf for $1.50 the next day, My GDP measured in $ would have risen 50%. I didn't sell more, just inflated the price. The same is going on in USA. The so called productivity is not measured in "units of goods" but in units of the "inflated $"
the real estate crisis in china is engineered by the chinese govt?it has to deflate the real estate bubble and the chinese govt knows there will be pain like the mass closing of lost making SOE s during zhi rong ji time as finance minister.china is metamorphising again to a new direction and hope they will be successful in this movement
It is over for China now. there will be a lot of pain for average workers in 2024 and 2025 as so many foreign businesses, moving out of China. Wolf Warriors are gone and China will have to beg and continue fabricating numbers to get new business. Maybe people have learned how the the CCP operates. “The new law will add to a general sense among the foreign business community that the Chinese leadership’s preoccupation with national security has made the country’s operating environment more difficult,” said Gabriel Wildau, managing director at consulting firm Teneo. “China’s economic growth outlook remains the key factor influencing foreign investment decisions, but the secrets law adds another disincentive at the margin,” he said.
Overall comment: It is easy to have growth when the government orders endless construction of new buildings nobody needs and build railroads to nowhere. Don't get me wrong, the first railroads were a great choice but they are at a point where the new ones are just not profitable. It is something that can only be achieved when sustainability is not a priority. Let's not bring up the tofu quality that plague a lot of their constructions since I know they have the skills when corruption is not making the companies cheat with the construction materials. However I could bring up corruption itself as a problem. China has a population which chose to invest their savings in property because they don't trust the Chinese stock market. They are now facing a disaster with the ongoing collapse of the of that property market. Specific points: - Funny that you described the CCP as transparent. It looks like even a lot of people inside the CCP have trouble figuring out what the CCP wants. - I don't think China will collapse in ten years but maybe the current government will or at least just Xi's rule. - Thinking that China has already won the EV market in the US or EU ten years from now seems foolish. China first needs to work on not having their EVs randomly break into fire. Then they need to convince trade unions to not do what trade unions exists for, putting up trade barriers against anything threatening local producers. Then hope the green tech winds don''t change since currently the production and lifespan of an EV is more polluting than a diesel car. To answer your final question: I think I'm hearing someone who is trying to be optimistic while addressing some common concerns. However a lot of companies that are solely guided by profits are leaving China these days. Sure, the fact that they went to China in the first place tells us that China used to be good for business but maybe you should look into Chinese partners who want to invest outside China? Maybe in India?
I appreciate your comments. I do have several other concerns that I did not mention in the short video. For example, although China has aced some industries, it is running into the problem of building overcapacity in manufacturing, even in EVs, and even in infrastructure. Soon, EVs will be built in countries like Indonesia and Brazil and China will be selling EVs at below cost which will lead to other problems. Ditto mobile phones and renewable energy. A very painful overcapacity is imminent. But I believe that it is such crisises that causes industries to find new innovations even in open economies. Again, at what cost to itself is the question. 2. Yes, you are right that the stated plans in the 5 year plans did achieve some amazing feats but also resulted in unintended consequences like the property bubble. 3. The decision to pivot away from property as the sole asset class was also a consciously stated one by the current government and stated from at least two years ago and this is the price that the state was willing to pay to correct course. 4. The problem is that we hope that they know what they are doing and at what price to themselves. I don’t see any effort to introduce property tax or doing anything unpopular to raise much needed income for the state. Something seriously has to give. 3. I think you are referring to the lack of transparency in governance, which is another matter, different from the transparency in policy that I was referring to, and here I would agree with you that many Chinese are deeply concerned, and some have voted with their feet. I do see the state being sufficiently transparent of its overall policy, whether or not they are right or wrong or if we agree with them seen from a capitalist model. Whether the path chosen is the best for China is not for us foreigners to judge. The open capitalist economy is just as destructive resulting in massive bankruptcies every ten years or so. We just give the policies stated time to run their course and then the transparency in governance becomes an issue when it is time to admit to mistakes. 4. My biggest concern is that China doesn’t want to admit that it was foreign capital that enabled the state to achieve the growth that it did in the good years from 2001-2014. That phase is now truly over and the state is determined fund its own new stated objectives, even technically “taking over” Internet companies that previously raised capital from the stock markets in the U.S. If we discuss the Chinese economy in this way, we will be able to understand where the problems will come from when they do, without cynically dismissing the truly amazing achievements they have had in the good years. You will need to visit China to understand what I mean.
Here is a history buff, too. From one history buff to another, you are right about this being the second time the Chinese have traded worldwide. The difference, as you noticed, is that the last time, such as the Silk Road, the Chinese were selling to the rich for only a few could afford the china, silk, tea, etc., while the Chinese were selling to the masses. So, Chinese industrialization can only come after the West and be the market for Western industrial goods. Otherwise, if China had taken the role of the Europeans in the early industrialization, the Chinese industrial products would have no market. As to AI, since AI is a series or a net of machines, I view AI as material. Therefore, China, as the most materialistic country on earth, will love AI, for a true AI would be impartial, single standard or not double standards, if not just, for example, color blind or race blind. The only problem AI presents to China is the pretended AI, which is programmed with bias and racism, etc. For example, in religion and politics, western AI will never surpass Western humans in reading the Bible and understanding democracy, while the Chinese surpassed religion and Western democracy long ago. So, the West is truly afraid of AI and must take the lead or control for now, for otherwise, the rule-oriented Westerners would replace their priests, lawyers, judges, politicians, and even medical doctors with AI because a machine is better at following the rules than humans. If the West being rule-oriented is a lie, the West would be scared of AI even more because a machine would find inconsistencies easily.
Emmanuel, you are a profound intellect. Being constructive and unbiased is the main characteristic of an intellect. Thanks!!
Hey Ben, l gave up telling my friends about China. I've been there twice and on the last time even did a summer course at Tianjin Foreign Studies University to improve my mandarin. When I returned to Portugal and shared my experience people started to call me names... 🤦🏾♂️ I just don't understand that in the 21st century with so much information available online people are more ignorant than ever!
It's tge power of mainstream media who pumps propaganda 24/7.
It just shows how stupid not ignorant the general
Isn't it a strange phenomenon that the IQ of many people in the western world have plummeted to an all time low level after recovering from the COVID pendamic? The Anglo Saxon media are so good in smearing and demonising China that the general public in the world that relies on western media actually believe that China is so bad economically that the Chinese economy is going bankrupt and will collapse very soon.The very renowned Economic journal from Britain report ed some 10 years ago Chinese economy is coming to an end! What a shocking and alarming news! This kind of news has distorted the people's view on China and they regarded China as a poor country run by incompetent people! What a joke! And worse, anyone who deals with Chinese people are stupid and laughable!
Thoughtful and insightful analysis of China! Kudo to you sir!
Emmanuel, thanks for showing up. Excellent contributions that shed light on the present situation in China and it’s role on the world stage.
A very knowledgeable.. unbiased..impartial...accurate.
impeccable analysis of the current economic position of China... The recent stock market crash in China with about 75% of foreign inveators, especially the US withdrawal from CSE, is now being replaced by the local investors. institutions..and state governments which started the frenzy bullish rally
recently..
Yeah we've seen how FDI plays out in the west and it doesn't help toward even distribution of wealth in any country for sure.
Keep those foreign speculative West funds OUT n you will be ok
True AI should be knowledgeable.. unbiased..impartial...accurate., unless the fake AI is programmed to be knowledgeable.. biased..partial...inaccurate. and double standard, etc.......
China and the Chinese are the most materialistic on earth.
Take AI for example, since AI is a series or a net of machines, I view AI as material. Therefore, China, as the most materialistic country on earth, will love AI, for a true AI would be impartial, single standard or not double standards, if not just, for example, color blind or race blind.
The only problem AI presents to China is the pretended AI, which is programmed with bias and racism, etc. For example, in religion and politics, western AI will never surpass Western humans in reading the Bible and understanding democracy, while the Chinese surpassed religion and Western democracy long ago.
So, the West is truly afraid of AI and must take the lead or control for now, for otherwise, the rule-oriented Westerners would replace their priests, lawyers, judges, politicians, and even medical doctors with AI because a machine is better at following the rules than humans. If the West being rule-oriented is a lie, the West would be scared of AI even more because a machine would find inconsistencies easily.
My Hero, so experienced and well-traveled, yet humble enough to hit the streets of Beijing and share his wisdom
Thank you for your unbiased perspective. In this current climate, it's a breath of fresh air.
New subscriber! Just happened to come across your channel and I really enjoyed hearing your thoughts on China.. It is always more credible to listen to one lives n work in the country for years than an outsider who has absolutely no ground experience.. you gave your impartial opinions n I enjoyed your contents.
You are an unbiased thinking individual. Thank you very much for providing us an useful analysis!
It's funny that I happened to see your video side by side with another China news video, and just because that one has the screaming headline entitled 'China's lost decade', it has 80k views, comparative to yours few thousand.
Yet I found your video to be steeped in logic and assessment, while the other one is negative sensationalism. That's how RUclips tweaked its algorithm.
Very neural and grounded opinions about China, you earned my subscription 🤙
Another New subscriber here. I like to listen to well-informed people. Interesting viewpoints.
I think you’re talking facts and your thoughts are fair. I hope your viewers learn from you.
A very fair assessment, much better than the Zeihan and Gordon Chang ones.
They are not researchers or experts. They are paid propagandists.
Please don't compare him with ill- willed western propagandists.
Zehan, Gordon Chang and the likes don't do "assessments".. you have a very very low bar as to what assessment actually means.
Zeihan and Chang are propagandists not intellectuals or economists, propagandists tell people how to think , not analyse the reality ....
Zeihan may have visited China in the early 90s & his perspective is deep-frozen there. Cheap sneakers, toys & low-end gadgets are what he thinks China is at. He's mention this repeatedly in recent RUclipss. He's a waste of space & so is Chang who in 2001 published a book The Coming Collapse Of China.
This is a very good presentation thank you 🙏🏼
It's important to study and analyse historical failure cases. Japan's economic failure is a classic textbook case study. China also needs to study their own past mistakes on solutions selection.
China's biggest asset is their vast number of intellectuals, be it economists or technologists as well as a hard working and committed workforce.
Japan so called economic failure was engineered to collapse by the US as Japan was due to over take them economically.. Japan was forced to sign treaties to open up.. in doing so it cause over speculation they knew will end in a crash.. that's exactly what happen.. but they didn't have the same luck with a 5000 year old China with 1:4 billion people.. the US is now irrelevant to the rest of the world..
I like this statement. The speaker refuses to put a country's social ambition into a political frame. I guess this is why I listened to the whole session.
Chinas development over the past decades has had its problems yet the big difference between China and the US is that China can question its own process while the US refuses to question its decision making.
Great video at all, I really agree with the last few sentences from yours, let's not simply put a country's social ambitions into a political framework, and divide a country along with its ideology communist/socialist or capitalist that to miss the key point of what a country ought to achieve as a national objective. If people still judge one nation by their stereotype of its ideology instead of understanding a country from every aspect, people will eventually lose the opportunity to global vary.
About AI, I disagree on your projection that China will not/can not be the leader because its data is not "real". You seemed to have misunderstood AI. Not only Artificial means 'not real", it also come before Intelligence. China's flavor of AI may not be to many people's liking, doesn't mean it cannot be leading. That's scary, but that's also intrinsically what AI is.
中国是一个超大型国家，对于大型国家，除了市场规模中国人的勤奋聪明智慧以外，中国相比其他你提到的经济体比如日本、韩国或德国，最大的区别是，中国拥有完整的主权。完整主权决定了发展上限，而完整主权是需要付出代价的，特备是你有实力超越美国时。当你放弃完整主权，配合美国主导的国际产业链分工，配合美国的国家利益同时取得一些利益。但那也决定了，这个经济体或产业链附庸的地位。这个世界上完整主权，包括经济、军事、外交的完整主权国家并不多，目前看，中国和俄罗斯算两个，印度算半个。
Good comment here. I subscribed.
China is not a capitalist country. Its a socialist country with capitaistic characteristics. And the groeth of capitalism have to serve the country and its people. Unlike capitalism in other countries that only enrich the elites at the expense of common people.
This is the main reason that people misunderstood china .
I guess China is state-capitalism economically and socialism politically
I think your point on AI is a bit off. AI is much bigger than language models. The perceived lead that US had in AI is almost entirely based on ChatGPT, which doesn’t represent the whole AI at all. As a matter of fact, ChatGPT is English only and it shows why China isn’t in the spotlight, because China’s language models are based on Chinese, which isn’t a world language like English is. Pure AI isn’t language based and information control doesn’t in any way hinder the development of AI technologies. Data engineering is a key part of training AI models, and the amount of data cleansing is way more than what the Chinese government ever did in information control.
A fair report, mainly. But your idea that China cannot lead in AI is partly true but mostly false. China cannot lead in a project like Chat GPT because of the type of open Large Language Model needed. That is a small part of AI. Progress in AI applications in the fields of research and development in biotechnology, agriculture, health, engineering, all branches of science, and even law can proceed without hindrance despite the preference of the government's view of desirable political viewpoints. The blinders placed on China are exaggerated.
You don't know anything about China.
On the topic of AI, you are referring to the informational AI aspect like Chat Gbt.
But China is already ahead in other areas like robotics, autonomous driving, port loading unloading, and drones. So, China would not be trailing in the future of AI.
@serriajohn ChatGbt is a western propaganda tool. Try to ask Gemini Bard on certain topics and it'll give you an American version answer. And it'll even argue with you to insist it's right. Try asking it about what it can't find in google, like content in Baidu and it can't tell you.
Yes...he seemed to miss out on those takes...that's his opinion I guess
China and the Chinese are the most materialistic on earth.
Take AI for example, since AI is a series or a net of machines, I view AI as material. Therefore, China, as the most materialistic country on earth, will love AI, for a true AI would be impartial, single standard or not double standards, if not just, for example, color blind or race blind.
The only problem AI presents to China is the pretended AI, which is programmed with bias and racism, etc. For example, in religion and politics, western AI will never surpass Western humans in reading the Bible and understanding democracy, while the Chinese surpassed religion and Western democracy long ago.
So, the West is truly afraid of AI and must take the lead or control for now, for otherwise, the rule-oriented Westerners would replace their priests, lawyers, judges, politicians, and even medical doctors with AI because a machine is better at following the rules than humans. If the West being rule-oriented is a lie, the West would be scared of AI even more because a machine would find inconsistencies easily.
Thanks for the insight!
非常好 讲的很好
Well thought statements without fears and favor.
Two most important things that Chinese understand:
1) no matter what "ism" or system you use, if it can't improve people's life, it meaningless! Good governance is the key!
2) social stability, if the society is not stable, nothing can be done, let alone any improvement. In a country of chaos or worse, of war, you are not able to do your business, let alone expand it, peole will lost jobs and become refugees, you can't even walk your kids to school..... any development and improvement is impossible. US launched media war against China trying to break people trust to their government and bring chaos to the country, so later on they can provoke colour revolutions and overthrow the government, so I understand why Chinese government need censorship to protect its country.
Exactly. US dominance in the global information space means continuous attempt at subverting sovereign nations’ info space, which would lead to manipulation of people to create unrest. This is extremely dangerous for any country who wants to remain truly sovereign. That’s why China is determined to control that space. But make no mistake, the US is doing the same.
Exactly
In other words, China and the Chinese are the most materialistic on earth.
Take AI for example, since AI is a series or a net of machines, I view AI as material. Therefore, China, as the most materialistic country on earth, will love AI, for a true AI would be impartial, single standard or not double standards, if not just, for example, color blind or race blind.
The only problem AI presents to China is the pretended AI, which is programmed with bias and racism, etc. For example, in religion and politics, western AI will never surpass Western humans in reading the Bible and understanding democracy, while the Chinese surpassed religion and Western democracy long ago.
So, the West is truly afraid of AI and must take the lead or control for now, for otherwise, the rule-oriented Westerners would replace their priests, lawyers, judges, politicians, and even medical doctors with AI because a machine is better at following the rules than humans. If the West being rule-oriented is a lie, the West would be scared of AI even more because a machine would find inconsistencies easily.
@@一个说话大声的中国人Capitalism and communism are just deceptive terms coined by the West for divisive ideologies. As countries, there is no such thing as capitalism or communism, and every country has the same problems: how to make life better for its people, how to deal with foreign relations, how to deal with economic problems, how to build industry and agriculture, and so on. The key is how do rulers set up policies that give people justice
@@一个说话大声的中国人1:08
To understand China one must evaluate their own axiomatic assumptiond of what economics is. There is a big difference between the unipolar world of the Malthusian-Hobbesian west and the multipolar❤ Confucian-Hamiltonian China.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts! With that accent, you gotta be Singaporean or Malaysian. LOL.
Singlish accent is not quite the same as Malasyians' English accent. He could be a Tamil, hopefully not Hindu.
@@resnica3557
Why "hopefully not Hindu"?
What's wrong with Tamil Hindus?
@@ArmageddonIsHere , Tamil is fine. As to Hindu, go look up Modi, the Great
@@resnica3557
Who's Modi? The Indian Prime Minister?
Why do call him Great if you seem to be also against him? Is he bad? If so, how?
@@resnica3557
FYI, I can look him up. But I want to know your thoughts.
i listen to a person shares his experience and view about China, period.
I think you have fairly portrayed China from successes to possible failures. I take issue with your conclusion on AI. AI has very little to do with censorship in most operational and data driven actions. Things like making the right decision on medical treatment, things like potential for new drugs, things like the best structural design given the guiding parameters, things like warfare strategies knowing the enemies past behavior. All these AI applications are not deterred by censorship. Having said that, the US fears China because of its huge population giving it a more nuanced and in depth data base to draw from.
As for China's manufacturing, in the past it was labor intensive manufacturing that China grew from. Today the Paradigm is different. China knows to sustain itself by its past manufacturing skills will keep its citizens trapped below the middle income level. China is a history observant government and it has seen Singapore, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea's jumping the middle income trap by moving from cheap labor to technology driven, highly brain skilled professions and products. That is the course China is taking today and the US is obviously afraid of that rise. The US has had a monopoly position on many tech sectors and it sees China superseding the US, so the US has tried everything short of war to stop China's technology rise. The afore mentioned countries rose with US assistance because they did not pose the threat that China does. Today, in my opinion, the US has lost the race to China and China will be the dominant technology force in this decade and beyond. China has steered its youth to study STEM subjects and groomed them for STEM jobs of today and the future. Everyone cites China's aging demographics and fewer births causing a decline in population, but in reality that is an asset. In technology, it needs fewer sweat labor jobs and more brain creative innovative jobs. The number of tech jobs will be less than the sweat labor jobs. It remains to be seen how this plays out, but China is clearly on this path. Those jobs that require sweat labor are being offshored. The US claims this as proof that China does not provide the right environment for manufacturing without realizing what they have said. Today the US is paranoid of every action China takes. Instead of trying to work with China the US is on a path of 'winner take all' and by now, it knows it is losing and doesn't know what to do except to react with sanctions and restrictions, and even more.
Would like to see some records/ data regarding China’s trade during the Ming Dynasty.😃.
Industrial AI is much more beneficial & profitable than artistic AI like making images or video clips or writing scripts.
China is already leading in AI.
Yes in dreams
Enjoy your thoughts please share more
Good analysis.
Govern with wellbeing of normal citizens in mind.
Great analysis. However, in my opinion. You may not have enough understanding of AI.
You were referring to large language model when you were speaking about AI. But that is only one area of AI. What you said concerning this area is also not really correct.
Appreciated your neutral and anatical views.
I am not sure why you think AI development is related to curation of information. Not allowing misinformation is bad for AI development? Surely self-driving technology will not be hampered by censorship?
China with its millions of Stem engineers Yearly and the 1.4b population that supports new tech, will win on its own terms as most countries will follow chinese tech.
It’s fun to speculate a country’s future(s). If you could speculate the future of the U.S., that’ll make you extremely rich.
Mao Zedong passed away at the age of 82 and Deng Xiaoping at the age of 92. By these statistics, the current chairman is still young. However, if his health failed unexpectedly, who could be a possible successor, and would the successor continue with the road to common prosperity or turn back to opening up and reform?
Emmanuel Daniel, you're an insightful person on the general state of China. However, when it comes to technology including A.I., I think you and I are no expert and I sense you're still a byproduct of the Western propaganda influence. I think the subtle difference in perspective is how the Chinese government deem as the key factors in stabilizing their nations and NOT necessarily in pre-determining what are the prefiltering criteria. Just my 2 cents.
Love the video!
With AI. We really need to break it down - China will never be a leader in the sociological aspects of AI for the reasons you put, but if we talk about STEM-AI, I surely see them leading - AI to calculate new paths in Science or Engineering is almost certain to be dominated by China because they produce by far the most research and graduates in that area and none of that data is constrained in China. So we'll see a bifurcation in AI and the US will keep the field that dominates the social world, China the 'hard' AI.
Well said. You’ve gained a new sub from Hong Kong
Malaysian or
Singaporean
Chinese new year not lunar new year
Thank you Emmanuel for this factual and objective assessment, something you hardly see in western mainstream media for quite some time. Fun fact : When you translate the Chinese New Year greeting, it means ‘I hope you get rich’.
Its chinese new year, theres no such thing as lunar new year
it is lunar in the sense the ancient chinese created the lunar calendar and the emperor officially made the beginning of each new lunar year the chinese new year . .
American: "I don't care! I am and will always be the big boss. You must listen to me."
not a bit exaggeration to say that as I actually heard a webinar discussion panel consisting of their think tank pple and an american diplomat to China bladdy saying to the same effect
oh you trust china🤣they already occupied lots of india's land in past. and also occupied tibet. and they are also trying to occupy taiwan. they are doing expansion. now they are trying to occupy south indian sea that belongs to india. they want to be hegemonic in sounth indian sea.
@@Darkmatter835 do you trust india ?
By the way, what south india sea is CHina trying to occupy? There is no sea by this name
@@nanyanguo1 xin jin pig🐽's ccp slave don't know what is south indian sea. go and search about what is south indian sea. sri lanka already trapped by china 's debt trap and next is maldives.
Just stay away from politics of the West!
We welcome smart Indian people visit China, we just don’t like those who have bias. Otherwise, we like Indian people
He is not from India.
Good start by looking into what China wants to do. Instead of what the West wants China to do.... Looking to hear more, specially, if you could dig deeper with your experience.
Chinese are creative, abstract, analytical, critical, systematic and multi-directional thinkers, so they would excel in AI over the west.
I guess you are a Singaporean doing business in China
Good observations and unbiased views, interesting to watch further. Agree with you that for China, unlike many countries, just listen carefully to official news what they want to do. Then is matter of how fast & well they can execute, some areas better than others. Many other countries, these messages are mixed with electoral rhetoric. That's where intimate knowledge of the country & being on the ground is handy.
On Common Prosperity, my observation that China wants to emulate "a Singapore vs a Hong Kong" from 80s-90s, both after facing decades of remarkable growth, and recognized as Asian Tigers. Hong Kong continue on, income, wealth & opportunities gaps got much wider, while Singapore focus on somewhat common prosperity, bring up other industries, capabilities - slowed down quite a bit, much economic friction before growing again. The impact is stark. Now when the region, their neighbours grew, Singapore had also grew keeping the competitive gap. However Hong Kong appeared left behind.
On AI, my view differs. Due to China's censorship, restrictions & closed system, it is in fact much more open system than elsewhere. Many countries, especially West, has lots of privacy & restrictions on sharing even most basic of data even without PII for many industries. My visit to an innovation center in Beijing a decade ago, saw that they did facial recognition in public places, offices, retail shops with objective to improve customer services, understand emotions, prevent harassments, improve productivity etc. My colleague & I softly said, our office security cameras had to position so that cannot even look at any employee monitor for privacy, so much restrictions. Then look at data for healthcare, motor accidents, AML and many more use cases. So for AI, China is growing much faster because of availability of data for use with limited restrictions compared with Western countries, non-West less restrictive but lacks the data or scale (big cities mainly). However USA will still dominate in GenAI from huge global talent pool and money. However China would come on top, if not very close match for AI & ML.
Just my thoughts.
What is the exact point that you are trying to make? You are throwing a lot of topics out on the table in a 20 minute video.
mediacre assessment. Chinese leads AI in industry application already.
Brother. How are you? Greetings from Uzbekistan Tashkent. We met in Baku
fair and balanced view
You confused Peter Zeihan with Gordon Chang. Chang said China would collapse in 2011-2012, not Zeihan.
War and economics experts suggest that we all must focusing on how to help usa pay off usa very very hugh financial debts troubles now??... how can vusa able to pay of usa overprinted dollars debts of 500 trillion usa very very hugh financial debts troubles now???...
We strongly believes that usa will not survive till 2024???
How are usa able to payback usa very Hugh financial debts troubles now????...
No problem with that - just print more US$. As long as other I diotic govts around the world, including China continues to accept US$, then the US can keep printing and keep over spending. A side note : The US GDP growthis not a measure of increased productivity, but is an inflationary number. - If I sell a loaf of bread for $1 today and sell the same one loaf for $1.50 the next day, My GDP measured in $ would have risen 50%. I didn't sell more, just inflated the price. The same is going on in USA. The so called productivity is not measured in "units of goods" but in units of the "inflated $"
I see youas deviator...did not tell a single word about elephant in room the realestate crises
the real estate crisis in china is engineered by the chinese govt?it has to deflate the real estate bubble and the chinese govt knows there will be pain like the mass closing of lost making SOE s during zhi rong ji time as finance minister.china is metamorphising again to a new direction and hope they will be successful in this movement
It is over for China now. there will be a lot of pain for average workers in 2024 and 2025 as so many foreign businesses, moving out of China. Wolf Warriors are gone and China will have to beg and continue fabricating numbers to get new business. Maybe people have learned how the the CCP operates.
“The new law will add to a general sense among the foreign business community that the Chinese leadership’s preoccupation with national security has made the country’s operating environment more difficult,” said Gabriel Wildau, managing director at consulting firm Teneo.
“China’s economic growth outlook remains the key factor influencing foreign investment decisions, but the secrets law adds another disincentive at the margin,” he said.
Overall comment: It is easy to have growth when the government orders endless construction of new buildings nobody needs and build railroads to nowhere. Don't get me wrong, the first railroads were a great choice but they are at a point where the new ones are just not profitable. It is something that can only be achieved when sustainability is not a priority. Let's not bring up the tofu quality that plague a lot of their constructions since I know they have the skills when corruption is not making the companies cheat with the construction materials. However I could bring up corruption itself as a problem.
China has a population which chose to invest their savings in property because they don't trust the Chinese stock market. They are now facing a disaster with the ongoing collapse of the of that property market.
Specific points:
- Funny that you described the CCP as transparent. It looks like even a lot of people inside the CCP have trouble figuring out what the CCP wants.
- I don't think China will collapse in ten years but maybe the current government will or at least just Xi's rule.
- Thinking that China has already won the EV market in the US or EU ten years from now seems foolish. China first needs to work on not having their EVs randomly break into fire. Then they need to convince trade unions to not do what trade unions exists for, putting up trade barriers against anything threatening local producers. Then hope the green tech winds don''t change since currently the production and lifespan of an EV is more polluting than a diesel car.
To answer your final question: I think I'm hearing someone who is trying to be optimistic while addressing some common concerns. However a lot of companies that are solely guided by profits are leaving China these days. Sure, the fact that they went to China in the first place tells us that China used to be good for business but maybe you should look into Chinese partners who want to invest outside China? Maybe in India?
I appreciate your comments. I do have several other concerns that I did not mention in the short video. For example, although China has aced some industries, it is running into the problem of building overcapacity in manufacturing, even in EVs, and even in infrastructure. Soon, EVs will be built in countries like Indonesia and Brazil and China will be selling EVs at below cost which will lead to other problems. Ditto mobile phones and renewable energy. A very painful overcapacity is imminent. But I believe that it is such crisises that causes industries to find new innovations even in open economies. Again, at what cost to itself is the question. 2. Yes, you are right that the stated plans in the 5 year plans did achieve some amazing feats but also resulted in unintended consequences like the property bubble. 3. The decision to pivot away from property as the sole asset class was also a consciously stated one by the current government and stated from at least two years ago and this is the price that the state was willing to pay to correct course. 4. The problem is that we hope that they know what they are doing and at what price to themselves. I don’t see any effort to introduce property tax or doing anything unpopular to raise much needed income for the state. Something seriously has to give. 3. I think you are referring to the lack of transparency in governance, which is another matter, different from the transparency in policy that I was referring to, and here I would agree with you that many Chinese are deeply concerned, and some have voted with their feet. I do see the state being sufficiently transparent of its overall policy, whether or not they are right or wrong or if we agree with them seen from a capitalist model. Whether the path chosen is the best for China is not for us foreigners to judge. The open capitalist economy is just as destructive resulting in massive bankruptcies every ten years or so. We just give the policies stated time to run their course and then the transparency in governance becomes an issue when it is time to admit to mistakes. 4. My biggest concern is that China doesn’t want to admit that it was foreign capital that enabled the state to achieve the growth that it did in the good years from 2001-2014. That phase is now truly over and the state is determined fund its own new stated objectives, even technically “taking over” Internet companies that previously raised capital from the stock markets in the U.S. If we discuss the Chinese economy in this way, we will be able to understand where the problems will come from when they do, without cynically dismissing the truly amazing achievements they have had in the good years. You will need to visit China to understand what I mean.
You guys don't understand China at all. Build your india first. Then you have the honor to talk about China
@@emmanueldanielauthor ru a part of radical left sino wahabi leftist lobby or ur working for jesus ??????
😅 another keyboard warrior funded by US to spread anti China disinformation. 😅😅😅😅
This person who left this comment must be funded by US to spread anti China disinformation 😅😅😅. Because normal people cannot be so naive and ignorant.
Lunar New Year is inappropriate
Chinese New Year is the correct one.
Exactly. Spot on.
It is culture genocide play in the open, orchestrated by Anti-China propaganda!
Lunar New Year is a term that is invented by whites
I dont know who started this lunar new year bs, but its just wrong, meaningless and represents nothing at all.
@@chriscain7333 Because the Japanese and Vietnamese also celebrate this event, but not to keen to call it Chinese New Year.
I see a China expert @doodlePimp starting to comment already
Here is a history buff, too. From one history buff to another, you are right about this being the second time the Chinese have traded worldwide. The difference, as you noticed, is that the last time, such as the Silk Road, the Chinese were selling to the rich for only a few could afford the china, silk, tea, etc., while the Chinese were selling to the masses.
So, Chinese industrialization can only come after the West and be the market for Western industrial goods. Otherwise, if China had taken the role of the Europeans in the early industrialization, the Chinese industrial products would have no market.
As to AI, since AI is a series or a net of machines, I view AI as material. Therefore, China, as the most materialistic country on earth, will love AI, for a true AI would be impartial, single standard or not double standards, if not just, for example, color blind or race blind.
The only problem AI presents to China is the pretended AI, which is programmed with bias and racism, etc. For example, in religion and politics, western AI will never surpass Western humans in reading the Bible and understanding democracy, while the Chinese surpassed religion and Western democracy long ago.
So, the West is truly afraid of AI and must take the lead or control for now, for otherwise, the rule-oriented Westerners would replace their priests, lawyers, judges, politicians, and even medical doctors with AI because a machine is better at following the rules than humans. If the West being rule-oriented is a lie, the West would be scared of AI even more because a machine would find inconsistencies easily.