Get One Free Share Worth Up To £100! Create and verify a Trading 212 account, make a minimum deposit of £1 and use our promo code "RAMIN" www.trading212.com/promocodes/RAMIN Trading 212 provides an execution-only service. This video should not be construed as investment advice. Investments can fall and rise. Capital is at risk.
I think burry likes to use his influence to stir shit up and see where it goes. Afterall recession is driven by fear and emotion. Burry doesn’t buy until he sees he’s stirred up enough fear. a typical watch what they do, not what they say.
With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly-which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125k bond/stock portfolio
This is why I don't like Michael Burry at all. First of all, his investments are mostly bullish and yet he is constantly selling "anxiety" about the market crash. Why can't he just be honest? And the media, doing nothing but to exacerbate the anxiety. I am a day trader, honestly I believe most successful traders don't really have any opinions about the market directions, they just trade what they see. It's not up to us to control the market and no one can. The best practice for a long term investor is to buy-and-hold of the market index funds or ETFs and add longs whenever there is a big crash, and you gain nothing but anxiety and fear from Burry's words.
It is happening right now. The SPY is down about 8% or more since he started buying puts. I should have jumped in a couple of months ago. I don't won't to jump in too late and be left holding the bag.
I did sell at the beginning of August, but the only reason I sold was I was up 40% on the year and that is too much of a gain to keep riding out, that was over my 3 year goal in 1 year. It would stress me to not sell, and I don't like stress. Especially when high yield savings accounts are giving 4.9% like Robinhood. I will dollar cost average everything back in over the next three years though, I am not out. Just going to take my time averaging back in while rates remain high. To me it makes sense there could be some pain, the Fed kind of needs it for their goals.
I DO think we have been on the verge of a crash for decades due to too much money printing but the printer keeps on going so the only real danger is if the dollar becomes useless due to too much printing, it could happen but nothing else comes close to replacing it, bitcoin is a bit of a hedge against that but who would risk putting it all in that?
An inevitable market crash is a possibility to consider. For instance, the NASDAQ (represented by QQQ) had a stock price of $260 in January 2023. Suddenly, it skyrocketed, leading many to invest in large-cap stocks. However, the truth is emerging, and this bubble could burst soon, potentially causing bankruptcies among numerous small and mid-sized companies. It is wise to trim individual stocks and buy an ETF that has an entire stock market portfolio.
Nobody can predict anything.....that's why I think that Warren Buffett has it correct. Understand the business you are becoming an "Owen of", and try to buy it at a good price. But don't wait for a total bear market .....you might be waiting for a LONG time. Mainly buy businesses that you understand!!
Shorting stocks is a statistically losing bet. Obviously it is a matter of insider knowledge or a COVID-like obvious market crash or the truly classic short then spread the news to make the market fall then collect your ill-gotten-gain.
With proper risk management, it is possible to be wrong several times and still succeed by being right just once. Scaring retail traders is a tactic used by large players to create liquidity in the market. There is a slight possibility that the value of AI stocks may decrease if lawsuits against the use of public knowledge for AI training are successful. Thanks for the video.
hi Ramin, thanks for the details you shared in your videos, they are very educational. I have been wondering, if the buy-ETF-and-hold strategy still applies in the high interest rate environment and what is your thought on the end game for US' or the world's endless QE and ever increasing debts? cheers. Shizhen.
I started investing with etoro because it seemed like a good idea to copy successful traders, wow what a mistake that was, all the apparant expert investers did was lose money faster than any index out there, NEVER copy other investors. The simplest and best is just dca into the index and forget it, When it comes to actually using that investment though a little more nuance is needed, just holding the index and taking out money as you need it can lead to drawing out during a crash so having 2 other things is needed imho, 1 an emergency fund of at least a year 2 bonds where you are getting a garanteed income ie simple savings account maybe mixed with longer term bonds. The old take your age off of 100 and that is the % value of your index part is a little concervative though especially in normal times, maybe when in a bubble add more to the bonds and in a crash add more to the index if you feel the need for a bit of a boost.
Meh, people can say whatever. The market goes up and down, like a bucking horse. Just try not to worry, hold on, and keep doing what you do. Like one of my old management profs said, "whether the market is up, down, or flat, dollar cost averaging is always where it's at"
IF the crash was going to happen in 2023,..... It would have happened 2-3 Months ago. Now there is evidence of the beginning of lower Inflation and slow recovery
Burry is doing what he said he would do two years ago he said the financial bubble would take years to play out with falls corrections. This is the second time he has done this and there will be more to follow.
Burry did well with his famous short, but I think it went to his head. He's trying to be too smart too often. His portfolio changes MASSIVELY every couple of quarters. I think he's been absolutely reamed by the market this year.
That wasn't profit on JD and Baba Ramin, he increased position sizes by 100% on both in that quarter, there was no major rally by the time he sold out next quarter, but no additional crash either
Hi @stevenbond4637 thanks for that - it's hard to tell how much profit he made as you say given we don't know when he invested and how much he invested, just the total market value when the snapshot is taken for the 13F. I think you're right he almost certainly doubled down on his position before closing it, I showed the prices of the two stocks in the video and it would have been impossible to double their value during that period. Thanks, Ramin.
Hi @bentp4891 I guess a broken clock is right twice a day 8-) But I think his position is a bit more nuanced than that, as I say in the video. Thanks, Ramin
Great video thank you. Do you have any help on how to use the promo code? I used your link, have verified my 212 account and deposited funds, can't see any sign of this £100 or any option to use a promo code when buying a stock/etf. Thanks very much in advance
Hi @Alex-nf5jy I'm sorry you're having trouble with it. Have you tried getting in touch with T212 support? The promo code should definitely work. Thanks, Ramin.
Thanks @@Pensioncraft , I've raised a ticket. Probably just user error (or maybe it's not applicable to an ISA T212 account(?)). Thanks for your help & keep up the great work
Good luck betting against the strongest index in modern time. 79% of fund managers underperformed the S&P 500 last year1. Over the past 10 years, 83% of fund managers fell short of their S&P 500 benchmark, with 94% failing over 20 years2. Similarly, 92% and 93% could not beat the S&P Midcap 400 or the S&P Small Cap 600 respectively during this 20-year period2
Hi @mikehardwicke23 as @rezwhap says the 13F filings are very imperfect as a means of monitoring holdings. But from what we can see that's right the two puts are the only short positions that we can see so it's more of a long-short portfolio with a value tilt. Thanks, Ramin.
The AI narrative will fade. Investors did not understand what they were rushing to pump money into. Generative AI (like ChatGPT) is transformative in relatively small parts of the economy like creative writing, but it is not going to drive cars or write the next big app. As investors begin to realize the inherent limitations of generative AI, hot air will be released from tech stocks. AI won't have huge impacts on the economy for many years to come, and markets don't like to look further out than a year or two. Burry is right to position himself for a correction in QQQ. I think AI will make a big impact on markets when it is combined with affordable/mainstream AR (which is not going to be ready for quite some time). Then, further out into the future, a huge leap in AI will come when it is run on quantum computers - that will shock markets.
Ramin > Following Burry. I remember when Burry tweeted, "You have no idea how short I am". Many RUclips bloggers used Burry's statement to urge people to short the market. Instead the market rallied higher. Then many of the bloggers started say, "Well, Burry didn't say he was short. He was saying that nobody knew how much if at all he was shorting". Ramin is giving good advice here. Avoid trying to follow these "pundits".
That's the paradox of market prediction, or not: knowing the market is due to crash tomorrow, how would you act or not act? How would other people act or not, knowing what you know and perhaps don't know? Is the original assessment of facts still valid on completion of all transactions? This is why it's always sound to clarify the prognosticator's time horizon before making assumptions or following them into the fray. They may well be wrong today, right tomorrow, wrong again in three months, horribly wrong in two years, and absolutely correct in a century! In truth, few things in economics are varied one at a time via rigid constraints of supply and demand, nor are all things in the background held equal.
@@beancount811 - I agree! That's why I never listen to Burry, Peter Schiff, Goldman Sax, etc. Too hard to know their entire thinking. Too hard to know their timeframe. Too hard to know when they will cover and go long. Too hard to know if they are right. Instead, I personally allocate a percentage of my savings into the market and cash/bonds. The more favorable the market becomes, the more I move cash into the market and vice versa. But that's just me. For the average person I believe they should make a determination on their risk tolerance, and invest accordingly and dollar cost average into an index fund.
I think while we are criticizing people's comments and decisions, i recall how you were very bearish on the us market in 2023 where a lot of money was made. I haven't seen you talk about BDCs and MREITs much. Many of these have outperformed the S&P500 for many years now with high dividends.
For every 5 wrong predictions he makes up with 1 that is right. In the meantime, he gets free publicity for every looming catastrophe, publicity inaccessible to optimists. Finally it is a nice ego trip. He will be recalled as the one who saw, forgetting his track record of duds.
I am not really concerned with handling my money at all. I would much rather give it to someone who knows what they are doing and isn't a greedy SOB. Of course there is no such person in the world right now - so my plan is just to continue moving forward without the money nonsense.
I'm a big fan of pension craft but you are only partially correct. Yin are correct that he only paid a fraction of the notional exposure but. Alcultinf the delta of the option the market exposure is c68% of the notional exposure is around a 1 billion using your option assumptions. It's the market exposure that is key not the amount paid or the notional exposure.
Hi Ramin on T212 can you have different cash holdings at once. Eg £100 in pounds and say $212 dollars from selling some US and does it let you choose what cash you want to use or does it have to be in a single currency at a time? So in essence having multiple cash holdings in different currencies at a time if you so choose? Also are US dividends held in $s and only converted if you choose to so in essence can roll them back into further US stocks without being charged currency fees? (Obvs you can't avoid the 15% Withholding tax) Thank you in advance
He's, like many, have been predicting a crash for a very long time. Like everyone else, he is baffled as everyone else is. Keep predicting a fall and he's bound to get it right eventually. He just got lucky , once.
Are those ETF's large enough that the liquidity would be there for Bury to buy that kind of volume easily in order to benefit if the strike price was nominally above the market price?
I would say Japan's small cap ETF (SCJ) looks like more downside to come before taking out the ATH at 84.93. Since is inception in the markets the shows a 5 wave move up since 2008 area, which topped in Sept 2021. Its only had a one leg move down since and looks very much like it is currently moving up in a B wave. RSI momentum will see it fail at approx 75 to 80 dollars. Then it will start a long journey of a C leg down and will bottom around the 30 buck area. I would say Burry if he can read the waves then he will be getting out of these positions quite soon.
Excellent! Well done and you are spot one regarding Burry’s strategy. The BIG issue with his strategy is the time decay related to his option positions, of course he could ladder both the strike and maturities of the PUT option contracts. He could have also sold some deeply discounted put options (cash secured puts) on specific stocks to earn some Put premium to help defray the cost of the Put option purchases. With options timing is everything.
The guy has made 2 right calls and 100 wrong calls. So why do people listen to him? A monkey throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal and pick what to buy and what to short would do much much much better.
I completely agree with Michael Burry. According to my mathematical calculations it cannot be otherwise. High interest rates place an enormous burden on the population, which therefore buys less. Less sales means less profit!! It's very simple Technology is overvalued because it yields almost no dividends. I say CRASH 2023 or early 2024 is a certainty.
Well, he may writte some twits for the fun (I do not know) but many people/banks say something and do another something on the investing. As Rami mentions, it does not make sense to try copying others (as it is not that easy and circumstances are very different). However, at the end of the day, we have to say frankly, that his skills are not average and made him billionaire basically from scratch. 99.9% of the citizens on earth cannot show similar knowledge at all... As I have read, he started picking stocks on his own first and after, with only 1 MMUSD he launched Scion (not sure if all 1 million were his all or from other small investors). To convert that money in over 1 Billion, it is not a joke, so I guess he is really good investor (not prophet).
@@future62 well... I do not get upset for such a thing if you understand that... I have not seen any accountability (legal or utopia? ) for any billionaire, bankers or politicians in power even it is easy to observe they have much to do with crisis wiping out citizens. My point is that saying it is a 'broken' clock is like saying a bat is ugly... but I only state that the bat is a pilot and flies (the rest only talk but they do not fly). I respect the talent and hate mediocrity.
Think of it as buying a right to do something before or on a specific date but not being forced to do so. It's one way to deal with risk in an uncertain environment where outcomes aren't guaranteed. In another words - Burry paid money to be able to make a choice within a fixed timeframe (in this case to sell against a broad index), which insures the bulk of his portfolio. Rights as commodities is a bit abstract, but if you focus on why someone might want to do this, you're 90% to getting the value of these things and what they are.
Today's share price is $100. You buy a put for 3 months time with a fixed selling price of $80. 3 months later, the share price has dropped to $60. You buy at $60 and then sell at $80 fixed price you bought with the put. You made $20. But if you get it wrong and the share price rises to $120, you're $80 put option is worthless because it's a guaranteed loss of $40. The option expires into the empty void of space.
Honestly I've been around the market long enough to know that this ups and downs can still prove to be highly beneficial, time again I've seen people use these windows of opportunities to make millions and set up for retirement. I just don't know how they did it.
Worst mistake you can make is to let emotions drive your investment decision for real. A diversified portfolio, with appreciate amount of risk to match your needs, is like a shipment to survive all storms. But no one save you if you jump out.
Maybe there ain´t a big crash coming. However: Chinese economy - among that semi-governmental-companies like CountryGarden and Evergrande are close to collapsing, US debt has reached a massively high level, we MIGHT see a global recession coming, inflation is still not fully under control, Germany is the "sick guy" of Europe in terms of economy and we still don´t know if the war in the Ukraine will escalate. The 2Y/10Y yield curve is still inverted (to my knowledge). There are currently MANY factors that could cause a big correction in the markets.
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Trading 212 provides an execution-only service. This video should not be construed as investment advice. Investments can fall and rise. Capital is at risk.
keep going Sir, i love ur video ur Excel about 13f Burry filing
i can answer at 2008 Big Short , what happened ? Market Crash
Michael Burry has predicted the last 86 out of 1 crashes.
2 crashes, but i see your point
I think burry likes to use his influence to stir shit up and see where it goes. Afterall recession is driven by fear and emotion. Burry doesn’t buy until he sees he’s stirred up enough fear. a typical watch what they do, not what they say.
Awful track record
though he puts money where his mouth is, and still not bankrupt
He is not either 1000 years old 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Perma-Bear expects market crash. In other news, water still wet.
With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly-which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125k bond/stock portfolio
Brilliant explanation ❤
@gayan369 Thank you! 🙂
Broken clock Burry. He's successfully predicted 16 of the last three market crashes.
This is why I don't like Michael Burry at all. First of all, his investments are mostly bullish and yet he is constantly selling "anxiety" about the market crash. Why can't he just be honest? And the media, doing nothing but to exacerbate the anxiety. I am a day trader, honestly I believe most successful traders don't really have any opinions about the market directions, they just trade what they see. It's not up to us to control the market and no one can. The best practice for a long term investor is to buy-and-hold of the market index funds or ETFs and add longs whenever there is a big crash, and you gain nothing but anxiety and fear from Burry's words.
Burry is always predicting a crash
@@AMP98765 The market hasn't crashed in that time. It has flatlined.
keep going Sir, i love ur video ur Excel about 13f Burry filing
i can answer at 2008 Big Short , what happened ? Market Crash
It is happening right now. The SPY is down about 8% or more since he started buying puts. I should have jumped in a couple of months ago. I don't won't to jump in too late and be left holding the bag.
A broken clock is right twice a day 😆
Jumping on the bandwagon, Michael burrys predictions needs its own ETF
So that Burry himself opens a short position on it?🤣
Lol, you nailed it! Great research.
A man’s confessions are always qualified by what he acts on with his wallet.
Thanks @michaelcaldwell3709
55% each year for the past 3 years, and you say his performance hasn't been good...
Man, I'm glad you're around to cut through all this stuff. Thanks, Ramin!
Thank you @JohanTetzel I appreciate your support
Hope he wins really big against the Market Manipulators.
I did sell at the beginning of August, but the only reason I sold was I was up 40% on the year and that is too much of a gain to keep riding out, that was over my 3 year goal in 1 year. It would stress me to not sell, and I don't like stress. Especially when high yield savings accounts are giving 4.9% like Robinhood. I will dollar cost average everything back in over the next three years though, I am not out. Just going to take my time averaging back in while rates remain high. To me it makes sense there could be some pain, the Fed kind of needs it for their goals.
Not some pain brother .. a whooole lot of pain. About a decade worth to be more accurate
Technically, if Casandra had prophecy, but would never be believed, then the best play is always say the opposite if you wamt to help the most people.
I DO think we have been on the verge of a crash for decades due to too much money printing but the printer keeps on going so the only real danger is if the dollar becomes useless due to too much printing, it could happen but nothing else comes close to replacing it,
bitcoin is a bit of a hedge against that but who would risk putting it all in that?
An inevitable market crash is a possibility to consider. For instance, the NASDAQ (represented by QQQ) had a stock price of $260 in January 2023. Suddenly, it skyrocketed, leading many to invest in large-cap stocks. However, the truth is emerging, and this bubble could burst soon, potentially causing bankruptcies among numerous small and mid-sized companies. It is wise to trim individual stocks and buy an ETF that has an entire stock market portfolio.
MB: “Honey..it’s a short and I think it caused the crash..”
Everyone: SELL EVERYTHING!!! NOW!!!
MB: (buys new PC parts for his wife’s computer)
Nobody can predict anything.....that's why I think that Warren Buffett has it correct. Understand the business you are becoming an "Owen of", and try to buy it at a good price. But don't wait for a total bear market .....you might be waiting for a LONG time. Mainly buy businesses that you understand!!
Shorting stocks is a statistically losing bet. Obviously it is a matter of insider knowledge or a COVID-like obvious market crash or the truly classic short then spread the news to make the market fall then collect your ill-gotten-gain.
With proper risk management, it is possible to be wrong several times and still succeed by being right just once.
Scaring retail traders is a tactic used by large players to create liquidity in the market.
There is a slight possibility that the value of AI stocks may decrease if lawsuits against the use of public knowledge for AI training are successful.
Thanks for the video.
hi Ramin, thanks for the details you shared in your videos, they are very educational. I have been wondering, if the buy-ETF-and-hold strategy still applies in the high interest rate environment and what is your thought on the end game for US' or the world's endless QE and ever increasing debts? cheers. Shizhen.
Well we all know a crash is inevitable. Even my dog knows that. What of course nobody knows is exactly when.
Great research Ramin ! New subscriber but really finding your channel content first rate. Thanks
Boy are you in for a treat, sir
Awesome, thank you! @Spungie64
He removed his short when options expired 2 Fridays ago silly 🤦🏻♂️
Burry is a fan of heavy metal music, including bands such as Obituary, Lamb of God, Amon Amarth, Slipknot, King Diamond and Pantera.🎸🎷🪗🎺🪘🎤
That is what turned The Big Short into one of the best movies, Pantera is playing.
I started investing with etoro because it seemed like a good idea to copy successful traders, wow what a mistake that was, all the apparant expert investers did was lose money faster than any index out there,
NEVER copy other investors.
The simplest and best is just dca into the index and forget it,
When it comes to actually using that investment though a little more nuance is needed, just holding the index and taking out money as you need it can lead to drawing out during a crash so having 2 other things is needed imho,
1 an emergency fund of at least a year
2 bonds where you are getting a garanteed income ie simple savings account maybe mixed with longer term bonds.
The old take your age off of 100 and that is the % value of your index part is a little concervative though especially in normal times, maybe when in a bubble add more to the bonds and in a crash add more to the index if you feel the need for a bit of a boost.
Meh, people can say whatever. The market goes up and down, like a bucking horse. Just try not to worry, hold on, and keep doing what you do. Like one of my old management profs said, "whether the market is up, down, or flat, dollar cost averaging is always where it's at"
How does that work if you've got a million in the market and only 10 bucks left to invest? 😅
IF the crash was going to happen in 2023,..... It would have happened 2-3 Months ago.
Now there is evidence of the beginning of lower Inflation and slow recovery
Burry is always predicting something. Totally overrated.
Burry is doing what he said he would do two years ago he said the financial bubble would take years to play out with falls corrections. This is the second time he has done this and there will be more to follow.
i mean he probably is just trolling everyone because his hedge fund is performing good
Burry did well with his famous short, but I think it went to his head. He's trying to be too smart too often. His portfolio changes MASSIVELY every couple of quarters. I think he's been absolutely reamed by the market this year.
Hi @mobeck you're right his 13F shows huge changes from quarter to quarter. He's certainly making lots of money for stock brokers 8-) Thanks, Ramin.
This video has not aged well with the stock market just posting the biggest up day in three months...
Good analysis, you seemed to have covered the long and short of it.
Ramin using his noodle once again
He runs a hedge fund so if he is shorting an index by selling Options, then he must be long other stocks.
After 9 months I'm back to say Burry was wrong at least for now.
It's 2024. Did Burry close his bear bet?
I Predict michael bury will lose his money on this bet
Bury long Stellantis???? interesting to say the least.
EXCELLENT ANALYSIS RAMIN! THANK YOU!
That's very kind of you @womensfinancecoach4573, Thanks Ramin
That wasn't profit on JD and Baba Ramin, he increased position sizes by 100% on both in that quarter, there was no major rally by the time he sold out next quarter, but no additional crash either
Hi @stevenbond4637 thanks for that - it's hard to tell how much profit he made as you say given we don't know when he invested and how much he invested, just the total market value when the snapshot is taken for the 13F. I think you're right he almost certainly doubled down on his position before closing it, I showed the prices of the two stocks in the video and it would have been impossible to double their value during that period. Thanks, Ramin.
Here we go again, even if he is right it really doesn't matter as its a buying opportunity
Our govs bail out the banks. Our national debt risis but noday defaults. The wheel keeps turning
Michael Bury is betting on a market crash because Michael Bury is always betting on a market crash
Hi @bentp4891 I guess a broken clock is right twice a day 8-) But I think his position is a bit more nuanced than that, as I say in the video. Thanks, Ramin
good quality content like always!
Thank you for this Ramin, it's very helpful
I'm glad you enjoyed it @TuNguyenUK Thanks, Ramin
Thanks! Informative and easily understood.
Glad it was helpful! @tracy7612
Great video thank you. Do you have any help on how to use the promo code? I used your link, have verified my 212 account and deposited funds, can't see any sign of this £100 or any option to use a promo code when buying a stock/etf. Thanks very much in advance
Hi @Alex-nf5jy I'm sorry you're having trouble with it. Have you tried getting in touch with T212 support? The promo code should definitely work. Thanks, Ramin.
Thanks @@Pensioncraft , I've raised a ticket. Probably just user error (or maybe it's not applicable to an ISA T212 account(?)). Thanks for your help & keep up the great work
How many times has he been correct?
Good luck betting against the strongest index in modern time. 79% of fund managers underperformed the S&P 500 last year1. Over the past 10 years, 83% of fund managers fell short of their S&P 500 benchmark, with 94% failing over 20 years2. Similarly, 92% and 93% could not beat the S&P Midcap 400 or the S&P Small Cap 600 respectively during this 20-year period2
So - all but the Puts are long positions it seems? (Presumably Value stocks).
13F filings don’t show (direct) short positions, so we have no idea.
Hi @mikehardwicke23 as @rezwhap says the 13F filings are very imperfect as a means of monitoring holdings. But from what we can see that's right the two puts are the only short positions that we can see so it's more of a long-short portfolio with a value tilt. Thanks, Ramin.
The AI narrative will fade. Investors did not understand what they were rushing to pump money into. Generative AI (like ChatGPT) is transformative in relatively small parts of the economy like creative writing, but it is not going to drive cars or write the next big app. As investors begin to realize the inherent limitations of generative AI, hot air will be released from tech stocks. AI won't have huge impacts on the economy for many years to come, and markets don't like to look further out than a year or two. Burry is right to position himself for a correction in QQQ.
I think AI will make a big impact on markets when it is combined with affordable/mainstream AR (which is not going to be ready for quite some time).
Then, further out into the future, a huge leap in AI will come when it is run on quantum computers - that will shock markets.
Ramin > Following Burry. I remember when Burry tweeted, "You have no idea how short I am". Many RUclips bloggers used Burry's statement to urge people to short the market. Instead the market rallied higher. Then many of the bloggers started say, "Well, Burry didn't say he was short. He was saying that nobody knew how much if at all he was shorting". Ramin is giving good advice here. Avoid trying to follow these "pundits".
That's the paradox of market prediction, or not: knowing the market is due to crash tomorrow, how would you act or not act? How would other people act or not, knowing what you know and perhaps don't know? Is the original assessment of facts still valid on completion of all transactions?
This is why it's always sound to clarify the prognosticator's time horizon before making assumptions or following them into the fray. They may well be wrong today, right tomorrow, wrong again in three months, horribly wrong in two years, and absolutely correct in a century!
In truth, few things in economics are varied one at a time via rigid constraints of supply and demand, nor are all things in the background held equal.
@@beancount811 - I agree! That's why I never listen to Burry, Peter Schiff, Goldman Sax, etc. Too hard to know their entire thinking. Too hard to know their timeframe. Too hard to know when they will cover and go long. Too hard to know if they are right. Instead, I personally allocate a percentage of my savings into the market and cash/bonds. The more favorable the market becomes, the more I move cash into the market and vice versa. But that's just me. For the average person I believe they should make a determination on their risk tolerance, and invest accordingly and dollar cost average into an index fund.
I do. He's 5'7".
Very interesting 16min.. forgot all about my personal troubles.. thanks.
I think while we are criticizing people's comments and decisions, i recall how you were very bearish on the us market in 2023 where a lot of money was made. I haven't seen you talk about BDCs and MREITs much. Many of these have outperformed the S&P500 for many years now with high dividends.
For every 5 wrong predictions he makes up with 1 that is right. In the meantime, he gets free publicity for every looming catastrophe, publicity inaccessible to optimists. Finally it is a nice ego trip. He will be recalled as the one who saw, forgetting his track record of duds.
nasdaq will break the all time high this year, and will hit 20k next year for sure, thats how the stock market will absorps the inflation
a year ago he was right, SP hit 3600 from 4800 range.
$1.6 Billion is not a jock.
Burry has 50% chance to be right! Just like anyone’s guess!! I wonder how many times has he won the lottery as well! 😂
Imho, Michale burry is just another source of noise. Makes much more sense than kevin o'leary or the rich dad guy, but in the long run just noise
He was right in 2008. And wrong ever since, deleting so many tweets that predicted things which never came to pass.
I am not really concerned with handling my money at all. I would much rather give it to someone who knows what they are doing and isn't a greedy SOB. Of course there is no such person in the world right now - so my plan is just to continue moving forward without the money nonsense.
Imagine betting $30m on the nasdaq or SP500 falling in the next few months.
I'm a big fan of pension craft but you are only partially correct. Yin are correct that he only paid a fraction of the notional exposure but. Alcultinf the delta of the option the market exposure is c68% of the notional exposure is around a 1 billion using your option assumptions. It's the market exposure that is key not the amount paid or the notional exposure.
Hi Ramin on T212 can you have different cash holdings at once. Eg £100 in pounds and say $212 dollars from selling some US and does it let you choose what cash you want to use or does it have to be in a single currency at a time? So in essence having multiple cash holdings in different currencies at a time if you so choose?
Also are US dividends held in $s and only converted if you choose to so in essence can roll them back into further US stocks without being charged currency fees? (Obvs you can't avoid the 15% Withholding tax)
Thank you in advance
He's, like many, have been predicting a crash for a very long time. Like everyone else, he is baffled as everyone else is. Keep predicting a fall and he's bound to get it right eventually. He just got lucky , once.
Are those ETF's large enough that the liquidity would be there for Bury to buy that kind of volume easily in order to benefit if the strike price was nominally above the market price?
Even a blind chicken gets a couple of pieces of corn when it pecks.
Brilliant as always-just hope some of it stick#.
Looks like he learned that his predictions are so so and covered his botty this time.
you aint bullshittin
is it a single leg put option? what is the strike price? what is the expiration?
Outstanding as always. Burry might be ✅️ right again given the potential contagion from China.
BEAUTIFUL. Every m0r0n needs to see this video
I would say Japan's small cap ETF (SCJ) looks like more downside to come before taking out the ATH at 84.93. Since is inception in the markets the shows a 5 wave move up since 2008 area, which topped in Sept 2021. Its only had a one leg move down since and looks very much like it is currently moving up in a B wave. RSI momentum will see it fail at approx 75 to 80 dollars. Then it will start a long journey of a C leg down and will bottom around the 30 buck area. I would say Burry if he can read the waves then he will be getting out of these positions quite soon.
Excellent! Well done and you are spot one regarding Burry’s strategy. The BIG issue with his strategy is the time decay related to his option positions, of course he could ladder both the strike and maturities of the PUT option contracts. He could have also sold some deeply discounted put options (cash secured puts) on specific stocks to earn some Put premium to help defray the cost of the Put option purchases. With options timing is everything.
The guy has made 2 right calls and 100 wrong calls. So why do people listen to him? A monkey throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal and pick what to buy and what to short would do much much much better.
He only needs to be 10% better with hes predictions then the average over the longrun to be extremly sucessfull!
How did his prison stock investment go
👍
He paid about .01/share
M. Burry : " I am Bear, need winter "
thank you very much.
You are welcome! @jdmom29
I completely agree with Michael Burry.
According to my mathematical calculations it cannot be otherwise.
High interest rates place an enormous burden on the population, which therefore buys less.
Less sales means less profit!!
It's very simple
Technology is overvalued because it yields almost no dividends.
I say CRASH 2023 or early 2024 is a certainty.
Well, he may writte some twits for the fun (I do not know) but many people/banks say something and do another something on the investing. As Rami mentions, it does not make sense to try copying others (as it is not that easy and circumstances are very different). However, at the end of the day, we have to say frankly, that his skills are not average and made him billionaire basically from scratch. 99.9% of the citizens on earth cannot show similar knowledge at all... As I have read, he started picking stocks on his own first and after, with only 1 MMUSD he launched Scion (not sure if all 1 million were his all or from other small investors). To convert that money in over 1 Billion, it is not a joke, so I guess he is really good investor (not prophet).
Why does it upset you to hear people hold billionaires accountable?
@@future62 well... I do not get upset for such a thing if you understand that... I have not seen any accountability (legal or utopia? ) for any billionaire, bankers or politicians in power even it is easy to observe they have much to do with crisis wiping out citizens. My point is that saying it is a 'broken' clock is like saying a bat is ugly... but I only state that the bat is a pilot and flies (the rest only talk but they do not fly). I respect the talent and hate mediocrity.
No matter how much I watch that put option I don’t understand it.
Think of it as buying a right to do something before or on a specific date but not being forced to do so. It's one way to deal with risk in an uncertain environment where outcomes aren't guaranteed.
In another words - Burry paid money to be able to make a choice within a fixed timeframe (in this case to sell against a broad index), which insures the bulk of his portfolio.
Rights as commodities is a bit abstract, but if you focus on why someone might want to do this, you're 90% to getting the value of these things and what they are.
Today's share price is $100. You buy a put for 3 months time with a fixed selling price of $80. 3 months later, the share price has dropped to $60. You buy at $60 and then sell at $80 fixed price you bought with the put. You made $20. But if you get it wrong and the share price rises to $120, you're $80 put option is worthless because it's a guaranteed loss of $40. The option expires into the empty void of space.
Great video, thanks!
Thanks @bloodybastard166 Glad you liked it!
Excellent breakdown.
Much appreciated! @mylor1066
wisdom! thank you Ramin.
Glad you liked it! @johnaustin9452
that was fantastic
Thanks @mikeb6354
great video
Thanks! @StevenBrita
Nice job.
Thank you! Cheers! @garycurtis4597
Good analysis.
Thanks @andrewmarsden6089 pleased you liked it!
He is always betting on a big crash, a broken clock is right twice a day 🤣
Honestly I've been around the market long enough to know that this ups and downs can still prove to be highly beneficial, time again I've seen people use these windows of opportunities to make millions and set up for retirement. I just don't know how they did it.
Worst mistake you can make is to let emotions drive your investment decision for real. A diversified portfolio, with appreciate amount of risk to match your needs, is like a shipment to survive all storms. But no one save you if you jump out.
Too much advertising on this RUclips-channel 😞
Maybe there ain´t a big crash coming. However: Chinese economy - among that semi-governmental-companies like CountryGarden and Evergrande are close to collapsing, US debt has reached a massively high level, we MIGHT see a global recession coming, inflation is still not fully under control, Germany is the "sick guy" of Europe in terms of economy and we still don´t know if the war in the Ukraine will escalate. The 2Y/10Y yield curve is still inverted (to my knowledge). There are currently MANY factors that could cause a big correction in the markets.
buy nvda on Monday would you. leverage your dogs kidneys