Good to see an interview with Tian. It's been ages since we've heard from the Variant Perception folks. Btw, it's also ages since I've seen any commentary from Juliette Declercq.
1.) If your paradigm of economic analysis only looks out to the 2-3 yr time horizon, and sees everything as a consequence of central bank policy, does it just ignore entirely the possibility of structural change, e.g. of monetary regime? That's like trying to predict where a train will end up in a couple miles by following the railroad and only looking down at the train tracks by your feet instead of gazing up and down the whole way. 2. What he says about good employment figures in the beginning is factually right but doesn't reflect the real economy at all, given that the revisions have shown net job loss.
One of the 538 (the polling company) models for the election had the odds as even a week before the debate, but they had a disclaimer that if the election was held on that day that Trump was an 80% favorite. This guy is right, he doesn't understand politics here. GDP is always going to look good when prices go up 😂. Using gdp per capita when there is a huge shift in the rate of change of prices upwards over the past couple years is really dumb. I'm guessing he doesn't shop for his own groceries...
Wages going up makes no sense? Dude. Prices are up, so all the union jobs are still negotiating when their contracts come up for renewal. We'll continue to see this happen for the next couple years. The post office is one that should have a huge effect on the economy when they get their raises after their arbitration is settled.
@@LinardsBerzins My guess is that Eric was hoping for insight about China. I didn't listen. Were there questions about China? I skipped over it, but Patrick's ending market comments always interest me. MacroVoices is tops for me, usually.
Good to see an interview with Tian. It's been ages since we've heard from the Variant Perception folks.
Btw, it's also ages since I've seen any commentary from Juliette Declercq.
Juliette is good asf!
@@acitaime Was she that silly/odd one?
1.) If your paradigm of economic analysis only looks out to the 2-3 yr time horizon, and sees everything as a consequence of central bank policy, does it just ignore entirely the possibility of structural change, e.g. of monetary regime? That's like trying to predict where a train will end up in a couple miles by following the railroad and only looking down at the train tracks by your feet instead of gazing up and down the whole way.
2. What he says about good employment figures in the beginning is factually right but doesn't reflect the real economy at all, given that the revisions have shown net job loss.
Great job!
It's da Frog and Chikin' Showwwww
That's very generous of Patrick. Oil prices have kept me dizzy.💫
One of the 538 (the polling company) models for the election had the odds as even a week before the debate, but they had a disclaimer that if the election was held on that day that Trump was an 80% favorite. This guy is right, he doesn't understand politics here. GDP is always going to look good when prices go up 😂. Using gdp per capita when there is a huge shift in the rate of change of prices upwards over the past couple years is really dumb. I'm guessing he doesn't shop for his own groceries...
GDP is always boosted by wars, too. I'm irked by this reality.
Great guest, thank you.
Tian always has great slides!
Wages going up makes no sense? Dude. Prices are up, so all the union jobs are still negotiating when their contracts come up for renewal. We'll continue to see this happen for the next couple years. The post office is one that should have a huge effect on the economy when they get their raises after their arbitration is settled.
Nothingburger
This guy is lost.
Long euro? What?
Why not?
This guy is pretty dense. No clue about what is going on
Elaborate, instead of posting rubbish
@@LinardsBerzins
My guess is that Eric was hoping for insight about China. I didn't listen. Were there questions about China? I skipped over it, but Patrick's ending market comments always interest me. MacroVoices is tops for me, usually.