China's Role in the Global Economy: myths and realities
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- Опубликовано: 10 июн 2024
- Slides available to download here (pdf): www.lse.ac.uk/assets/richmedia...
Speaker: Dr Keyu Jin
Chair: Professor Wouter Den Haan
Recorded on 29 January 2014 in Hong Kong Theatre, Clement House.
The CFM and Department of Economics lecture series focuses on topical macroeconomic questions. Its aim is to give an informative and balanced overview of available knowledge among macroeconomists. This talk considers China's growing role in the world economy.
Keyu Jin is a lecturer at LSE. Her research has focused on global imbalances and global asset prices, as well as international trade and growth.
Wouter Den Haan is professor of economics and co-director of the Centre for Macroeconomics at LSE.
I am mesmerized by her analysis which is further buttressed by a recent visit to the country.
I am a huge fans of Keyu Jin!
Because you are brainwashed 50cents
How could someone be so intelligent, so pretty, so well educated and so articulate! Wish you the best, ms. Keyu!
I was extremely impressed too.
And a great industrial spy to boot.
1111a11q11
Great insight. This helps tremendously with my studies. Your dedication to understanding the Chinese economy and sharing your knowledge is appreciated.
Discovered this very recently. Appreciate the insights and thank you for sharing the pdf presentation.
The speaker is really attractive to me and her arguments are objective and neutral even if I don't know much about the economy.
Great analysis and well thought through arguments.
Inspite of no freedom of speech China has pulled out 600 million people out of poverty , a great achievement on human rights front .The question is what is more important freedom of speech or food in the tummy? The degree of freedoms in China has dramatically improved in the last two decades. China has better human rights record then USA has. War is the cause of biggest human rights violation and in that USA takes the cake.
Their government couldn't give two half shits about bringing people out of poverty, the end goal was to create a massive consumer class.
@@What-go8ng Do your research. The UN couldn't deny it. Even the Europe and the US couldn't deny it. China uplifted 800 million of its citizens from abject poverty. Without China in the equation, the world would actually have a negative figure in world poverty upliftment, meaning the world actually gained more people in poverty.povert
why i had never heard anything about "reform, reform" reform" for western democracy?
reform has stagnated since the 1960s in the west, while China is under constant reforms, this is all down to attitude, CHinese government do not claim moral superiority and the holder of absolute truth, their pragmatic and strategic thinking makes China one of the most flexible countries in the world, they didnt survive 5000 years for nothing.
+eiji kenji that's why China is growing so fast!
eiji kenji There is no need to talk about reform on democracy because it continuously trying to reform in a trial and error basis.
@@fooksengloke3625 The true is, the parties of the democrazy system are too busy fighting each others, there's no time left to think about reform
Right on. It's always the wealthiest who get wealthier, ha-ha. With a nimble fingered "oaf" for leader !
Reform = dynamic adaptive policy with long-term strategic view to serve nation's common interests
She is SOOOOOOOO smart! amazing intellect with pragmatic insight to debunk the many myths
Over the weekend of Oct. 17-18 the first good economic news in a long time came out of China: The country announced official growth figures of 6.9 percent annualized for the third quarter, narrowly beating expectations of 6.8 percent.
The bad news: This number is likely overstated by several percentage points. The caveat this time is a statistical adjustment, which uses falling prices to boost growth. Excluding this adjustment, the economy only grew 6.2 percent.
Even that is optimistic: Unofficial growth estimates range from 2 percent to 5 percent. The most reliable indicator, named after Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, blends railway cargo volume, electricity consumption, and new loan disbursement. It shows growth at around 3 percent.
1. With removing distortions and more efficient reallocation of the current capital and labour only shared by state owned firms to private sector, there's still more growth yet to come.
2. The only child policy reduces the expenditure of each urban household income,on the other hand this policy brings the interesting by-product of further decline of the saving rate for a urban household for a very long run.
3. The great imbalance between export, consumption and wage growth.
4. Considering China to move from a cheap labour model to a cheap capital model for the future.
Smart. Well-educated. Beautiful. Young. Perfect wife!
Dear Dr, :) In addition to what you mentioned regarding household savings culturally, I feel an incredibly important motivation is also due to the medical care situation :) In particular, the practice of offering personal incentive$ to staff in order to receive better care:) Providing you have the fund$ to be admitted in the first place, there is still a highly pervasive belief that if you can't give a little extra, you won't receive the best care :(
Thank you for sharing your ideas with us:) Keep up the good work:)
The most beautiful Dr i have ever met in my life.
from red generation families.
360p in 2014? C'mon LSE, we know you have the money. Invest in some HD cameras.
if you think this is bad... don't try to listen to their podcasts
KCFA But that's the only way to focus. Can't get my eyes off her big...
Fantastic analysis in easy listening. Now is about 4 years since. My own take is the 1 child policy for family that enable focus investment in education. The other is choice of priority in public policies.
Here for Dr Jin KeYu
The London School of Economics has high standards, she exemplifies it.
quality of the questions didn't exemplify it
Zero standards for foreign industrial spies.
I find it laughable about some of the "concerns" expressed by the audience about China. The classic example being its once upon a time "one child policy". Do these people who express such concern really worry that china will not have enough people to work and populate the country into the future? Or are they just regurgitating this question because it has been so frequently used as a justification that China will not progress and develope as it has for the past 3 to 4 decades? Or that China's form of government, it being a "communist" one will also limit if not stymie its future growth. Do they require another 3 to 4 decades of rapid growth in China to dismiss such mentality out of their mindset? The craziness of such questions, doubts about China is that; are countries that do not "suffer" the same issues as they say China does; progressing at the same pace and rate as China's. This default inability to accept facts but actively seeking reasons and excuses to forecast doom and gloom for China is just simply hilarious and proof of their narrow mindedness.
Everybody including the CCP see the demographic issue they have
Well, i think you can swallow your words right now, China's Chairman Xi has just established 2-3 child policy started from Nov 2021, and yes, of course you know what it means, so do you really believe everything they said before this? Pleas think again.
是亚投行行长金立群的女儿吗？
I like the "magic word", REFORM.
sad indeed to read all these comments - why not say something that is relevant to the topic of lecture
+m-murali Murali I feel most people here are for a (and I quote) "hot" phd who is a woman and happens to know something about economics. Really disappointing that they value "hotness" more than the content of the speech. With regard to the speech, I'd like to hear more from her on how chinese politics plays a role in the country's economic development, particularly in "reform". She is stealing the concept of "reform" in some ways and it is not fair for this topic.
+m-murali Murali and given her family background (father: Liqun Jin, head of AIIB bank that is just what she has to say I guess.) Again, I feel sorry for those who comment "hot phd" "hot chicks". I think porn channel is more suitable for them.
I am sorry this is not my focus in this speech.
Ms Keyu Jin is only one of the many hundreds Chinese ladies that has these intelligence. May God bless her always 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
What you're talking about called "Command Height Ordered Systems..." in which is unfair and incomparable with the free world economy systems...
EUDS
What is the difference between the party and the government when there's only on party?
Can someone please explain
You're right to say there's only one party which is the CCP. CCP is the government of China. There's actually no difference. However, in late 2013, to further reform the state-owned enterprises (which is owned by the government), CCP had to make this difference to tell the state-owned enterprises, "I am not interacting with you as your government. I am interacting with you as the party. Don't depend on me. Depend on yourselves now". The state-owned enterprises understand they no longer can simply run to the government for help without good reasons. They got to improve and buck up on their own. This is why CCP make the distinction between party and government.
金刻羽。a marvelous Scholar.
Now there is a surprise Chinese liquidity filling US Treasuries coffers in exchange for a current account surplus on it's own books. I would imagine with this trend continuing the rest of China US trade talks are bound to stall.
大陸有這些年輕人還更強過戰機軍艦
Interest groups are important units in many democratic political systems.. It's not the reality in China. Local governments may have certain special interests for the region, then the one party system plays a role here to balance out. We won't see an orange revolution in China because the government is earning higher approval rate among young Chinese. Slower growth does not put people back to poverty. so no need for revolution as long as people have job to do. Don't forget the high rate of female participation in labor force in China, something around 75% comparing 50% in USA. it's very likely to see more women working domestically if any further economic slowdown. Also by demographic trend there should be less labor supply in the future. Health and pension reform now are reaching the bottom level of grassroots, farmers and villagers. The society is now more stable then ever. Certainly there are some people value their individual liberty over nation's collective prosperity and harmonious stability but it's only a mere fraction. Those people make themselves very showy only because they meet the distorted interests of western media or certain foreign governments. With regard to spiritual aspect, as a Chinese myself I have to admit that we Chinese are so pragmatic that for thousands of years there has never been a religion originated in China like in any other great civilization. Well, Taoism and Confucius are rather philosophical. We probably just have less spiritual need. In this populated nation where people are bonded together in many ways,, they need each other more than religious spirits. The unity has been and still is the core value of the foreverlasting Chinese civilization. Democracy doesn't really go with this core value, but the Chinese.meritocracy serve it well.
MakTakS Wong or Mantaks Wong - from your multiple postings, you obviously put all your focus on digging out dark sides in China because they are blocked due to lack of freedom of speech and freedom of press. But it seems that the dark sides are not really unknown to you when you're claiming "there have been too many protesting against the Chinese government for different issues in China". . You certainly know more than all the Chinese. Good for you!
You graduated phd in 2009, I should be graduated comparative politics phd at Lse government department in 2007, how pity I didn’t take that degree. Otherwise I only old then you 10 years old, no more differences.
You are too optimistic, for the situation can be worse.
Born in Beijing, but moved to NYC in her teens, then Harvard. But what is her accent?
Charming lady, amazing beautiful in Chinese view, and most important, so smart
nice and good woman
Comment 1: Overall, this talk is not that systematic.
Comment 2: The success of China's economy is the success of the party, of the government;
Comment 3: "Explicitly stated in the reform package" does not mean it would be implemented. This can not serve as a support to your argument; She used too lot "I think" or "I believe".
Comment 4: One can see a lot of traces on her shared by a number of officials in China; After all, she was born in such a family
Guangpu YANG 沙发啊！
Guangpu YANG very good point. Remember her father is even the head of the new AIIB for the new infrastructure bank
“文化自信”的底气何在
“文化自信”只是一句口号、一个理论名词么？不是，我们提倡的“文化自信”有其深厚根基，是可以真正践行的。因为，我们有优秀传统文化的底蕴，也有在中国革命、建设、改革的伟大实践过程中孕育的革命文化和社会主义先进文化。这种在优秀传统文化基础上的继承和发展，夯实了我们文化建设的根基，奠定了我们文化自信的强大底气。
我们有博大精深的优秀传统文化。它能“增强做中国人的骨气和底气”，是我们最深厚的文化软实力，是我们文化发展的母体，积淀着中华民族最深沉的精神追求。诸如“自强不息”的奋斗精神，“精忠报国”的爱国情怀，“天下兴亡，匹夫有责”的担当意识，“舍生取义”的牺牲精神，“革故鼎新”的创新思想，“扶危济困”的公德意识，“国而忘家，公而忘私”的价值理念等，一直是中华民族奋发进取的精神动力。此外，“天人合一”、“天下为公”的社会理想，“以人为本”、“民惟邦本”的治国理念，“载舟覆舟”、“居安思危”的忧患意识，“止戈为武”、“协和万邦”的和平思想，“与人为善”、“己所不欲，勿施于人”的处世之道，“儒法并用”、“德刑相辅”的治理思想，“和为贵”、“和而不同”的东方智慧，一直是中华民族治国理政的思想渊源。甚至，我们正努力建设的小康社会的“小康”这个概念，也是出自《礼记•礼运》，是中华民族自古以来追求的理想社会状态。
这些千百年传承的理念，已浸润于每个国人心中，成为日用而不觉的价值观，构成中国人的独特精神世界。正如习近平所说，中国传统思想文化“体现着中华民族世世代代在生产生活中形成和传承的世界观、人生观、价值观、审美观等，其中最核心的内容已经成为中华民族最基本的文化基因。这些最基本的文化基因，是中华民族和中国人民在修齐治平、尊时守位、知常达变、开物成务、建功立业过程中逐渐形成的有别于其他民族的独特标识”。
我们有鲜明独特、奋发向上的革命文化。从井冈山精神、长征精神、延安精神、西柏坡精神，到雷锋精神、大庆精神、两弹一星精神，再到航天精神、北京奥运精神、抗震救灾精神，这些富有时代特征、民族特色的宝贵财富，脱胎于中华民族优秀文化传统，同时又在新形势下不断进行着再生再造、凝聚升华，从而为我们在新的历史条件下推进文化建设奠定了坚实基础。
我们还有承前启后、继往开来的社会主义先进文化。它是对中华民族优秀传统文化和红色革命文化的继承和发展，是运用马克思主义为指导所进行的文化创造。社会主义先进文化的明显特征是中国特色社会主义的共同理想、以爱国主义为核心的民族精神和以改革创新为核心的时代精神，以及社会主义荣辱观。在短短几十年的社会主义实践中，我们创造了中国道路、中国模式、中国奇迹，这已充分说明社会主义先进文化是一种有生命力的文化，是一种体现人类文明发展进步方向的文化。
我们的文化自信，不仅来自于文化的积淀、传承与创新、发展，更来自于当今中国特色社会主义的蓬勃生机，来自于实现中国梦的光明前景。改革开放30多年来，我们创造了举世瞩目的成就。国家兴旺，文化必然兴盛，特别是党的十八大以来，我们党把建设社会主义文化强国摆到更加突出的位置，中华文化正迎来一个繁荣发展的黄金期。
文化的优秀、国家的强大、人民的力量，就是我们文化自信的强大底气，文化自信的水之源木之本。正如习近平所说：“站立在960万平方公里的广袤土地上，吸吮着中华民族漫长奋斗积累的文化养分，拥有13亿中国人民聚合的磅礴之力，我们走自己的路，具有无比广阔的舞台，具有无比深厚的历史底蕴，具有无比强大的前进定力。中国人民应该有这个信心，每一个中国人都应该有这个信心。”的确，我们没有理由不自信！
2016年7月1日，庆祝中国共产党成立95周年大会在北京人民大会堂隆重举行。习近平、李克强、张德江、俞正声、刘云山、王岐山、张高丽等出席大会。新华社记者 鞠鹏 摄
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Francis Fung
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There's always corruption everywhere (not just in China)....the question in itself is somewhat biased with the assumption that the democratic system does not have corruption (less corruption!)......which is not always the case!
no we just change the word. Government official accept money anywhere in the world is corruption but in US, UK, Canada, etc its call campaign contribution or contribution to a foundation.
There is corruption everywhere, but cultural revolutions happened only in China.
Cheap in price not cheep Quality , China now makes products for various pice points if you can afford the cheapest quality you will buy only that.
33.20 in balance not enough internal consumption, wages suppression still true, also small returns on saving. Hence large transfer households to government - still true. Correct still biggest source of in balance. Will need political reform to address this - painful for CCP. This is not a myth. Michael Pettis makes a big point of this and the drive for ‘Internal consumption’ is nothing new. CCP failed before and looks if they are failing again. 40:31 reform package stated return of wealth to households. That hasn’t happened and where are the reforms? 37:40 the future. Everything you can do in HK you can do in Shanghai. True now HK is completely part of mainland China. Back in 2014 it wasn’t and has special trading concessions with the west mainly to do with the ‘rule of law’
And then came Trump, kicking the entire process into reverse. Chinese investment into US has dwindled almost to nothing (way to go, Don), and I understand (please, somebody correct me if I’m wrong) capital transfers from state enterprises to the private private sector have slowed way down. And fewer Chinese students come here to learn (you notice these things in Boston, where I live). Intellectual property? Don’t expect the Chinese to do us any favors. The tariffs will make it worse for everyone, except maybe a few American steelworkers.
She comes across as a saleswoman.
who is she
亚投行行长，前财政部副部长金立群女儿。Daughter of Jin liqun pre vice financial minister ,bank President of Asian infrastructure investment bank
in the description
Yet Jane Austen had nothing to say about the commodification of the "wife". When competitive saving produces losers they simply reallocate wives from away from rural areas, this in turn creates a new supply of urban labour in the long run. Yes, I'm making a joke.
oops spoke too soon. She then talks about Vietnamese women! lol
Carlos Choy During Jane Austen’s time, the commodification of the “wife” rested on whether she came with some fortune to bring to her husband. Else, the husband had enough fortune on his own and then he would look for something else in a wife like being an accomplished woman. It seemed reading was an essential part of being accomplished. Jane Austen was brave enough to put the author of her books as a Lady, unlike George Eliot who adopted a fictitious male name, as a woman writer did not sell well, if at all, in those days. Jane Austen fully understood Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations.
Too little emphasis was given to the One Belt One Road Initiative or BRI. How this will help China grow with the participation of all the youthful populations from the BRI countries? At the same time AI and robotic will change the whole dynamics that we cannot factor or even fathom at this point. Many things had changed since this lecture took place in 2014 chiefly the Trump era and the devastating effects of the pandemic since 2020 and continue to play out now. How free speech would look with social media giants like Google, Facebook, RUclips and Twitter moving forward is yet to play out. With so much uncertainty ahead the last thing a Chinese has to worry about is more freedom and free speech. The same goes with young people all over the world except the rich and powerful. Many fresh graduates are unable to find employment with many countries still experimenting with lockdowns and are suffering from great economic contractions. Sadly geopolitics force the conversation to focus on the Uyghur, Hong Kongers’ political freedom and China’s suppression of its people instead of on a concerted effort by all countries to battle this pandemic together and prepare for a new world where all of us have to live with these viruses haunting us for generations to come.
Are you from the West or from the fifth column?
Confucianism is also not spiritul
"our great leader" proud right!
How about the freedom to criticize without fear of being locked up in house arrest?
Give it a try... and see what happens.
sounds like she is switching back and forth between British and American accents...
學霸女神nonetheless;)
inevitable as a Chinese studying in US and working in UK...
整容就整容吧，关键还整失败了，整个下巴和嘴都是歪的
China must go the federal way, like America. Social upheaval is inevitable as economic progress will never fully fulfill human aspirations. The spiritual dimension is key as it is a human necessity.
Confucianism emphasizes personal and governmental morality, correctness of personal relationships, along with sincerity and justice --- things Trump and his brash "incorrectness" seem unfamiliar with. Not so, I ask? Keyu has more brains in her little finger than he does in his rag top!
The labor shortage of China will be solved in the same manner of many countries with a similar issue, IMMIGRATION.
If the population cannot provide the needed labor or technology such as robots/other machinery and greater efficiencies, than an enlightened leader will find a way to import the needed workers China needs.
Chili Pepper?
1:00:00 突如其来的娇羞😅
Keyu is a gem. I can tell she doesn't suffer fools like Trump lightly (who probably never read a book from cover to cover or stayed up til three a.m. doing calculus problems). May the God of heaven bless her and inspire her with even more wisdom!
The concern about the aging population is highly overrated. With the one child policy, and the tremendous increase in the wealth of the nation, as well as the safety nets that are being spread out, there is little concern about the well-being of the old people. Most parents will be able to save plenty for their old age.
Another misplaced concern is the reduction in the labour force. Before we know it, a lot of the workforce will find their jobs taken over by robots. The wealth generated by these robots will hopefully be used to fund the retraining of the displaced workers, or perhaps help to put a « universal minimum income « program in place. The relaxation of the one child policy will will also help to mitigate this potential problem.
China has always depended on hard work and never relied on « prayers « to further its well-being. Meritocracy will always beat democracy, particularly the « illiberal brand « of democracy rampaging all over planet earth.
Finally, I would like to join some of you in complimenting Keyu on her insight and her ravishing beauty.
Jane Austin. Pride & Prejudice 24:40
Jane Austin, if alive today would applaud women's rights and independence. In the early 19th Cent women ran the risk of becoming destitute if they did not marry or even widowed. They had little income earning opportunity themselves. I think her answer to the demography issue is laughable. China going to import millions of wives. Just think of the social impact that would have on where those wives would come from. Here we are seven years on and this along with the other issues are still there. Just somewhat bigger and maneuver room running out.
If she lived today she would certainly revise her opening statement in Pride and Prejudice to "It is universally acknowledged truth, every man in search of a wife must be in possession of a house and a car". And hence competitive saving motive. But this is unlikely going to be a sustainable reason for china's high saving rate, because the Chinese men have found a solution: Vietnamese wife!
The what about the vietnamese men?
HAHAHA...just like Taiwan men. The good side is there are many beautiful girls in Vietnam.
Wung Hugh It trend is changed to looking to Cambodia for wives.
Chinese girls are awesome
Hot chick PhDs are certainly in high demand!
What a hottie! Is Keyu single?
good actress I must say.
Lecture boring AF
Please collect more and accurate political and economic information during last two years, to upgrade your speech.
China communist structure is not the good model that some countries should learn. Gun in the regime （枪杆子里出政权）is the one of the cruelest dictators Mao's slogan. Reform only remaining in only economy will finally fall.
It's technocratic.
+James Cao Why bring in politic?? China is no more communist. Only the one party system, that is being in the argue. Since brought up, just explain why China (communist) structure is not good model for other countries to learn.
+James Cao Gun in the regime （枪杆子里出政权）
The conventional English is "Political power springs from the barrel of a gun," and while Mao used it the notion is pretty old and basic. Hobbes' Leviathan is close.
The GTrans, and the identical Google Translate, versions are sorta odd. But they're making huge strides, and in a couple of years they're going to have a pretty decent translation engine.
James, I thought your comments on economic growth, above, were pretty sensible. What's this "Li Keqiang indicator" thing all about?
Best,
-dlj.
See Panama document for details.
James Cao
Well, gee, thanks, that narrows it down a bit...
3.5 terabytes, is it?
Cheers,
-dlj.
ruclips.net/video/Pmfy56FgI3s/видео.html; I don't really understand this comment; from what I've seen most people are trying to save but cannot because stagnant wage increase and high property prices; is this really "profulgate" or just the means within which citizens are stuck in causing them to save less? For example, if you have to live in a certain city, you're limited by its housing options. If your housing costs you 80&% of your income, you can't save as much. And yes, suburbs are extravagant and there are too much of them in North America at least, but from what I'm seeing, most people don't want them, it's actually just the developers aren't making as much money off of lower-density or mid-rise building blocks so they're tipping housing options out of favour of saving options; I guess she is saying the same in the Chinese context at 35 minute mark (wage repression).
This lady speaks too much about China, we understood why she spoke China must save USA.