Professor, did you mean yen will no longer stay weak? In the next few weeks, are we able to predict if yen will go stronger or weaker based on the stock market trend? If so, what are the criteria to predict?
Yen is week in the past because of the widening interest rate spread, now the spread is narrowing, it will keep going strong after US interest rate cut.
Gold also dropped yesterday, but carried trade of yen for the buying of gold should not be a major trend as gold doesnt carry interest either, so the price of gold should depends on fundamentals and interest rate of US. Whether bond price will rise also depends on its risk, if US rating is lowered due to recession, bond price will also go down.
I notice that, but cutting rate may not help the stock market, as will just further eliminate the carried trade, and the high tech sector is support by belief but not the low interest rate environment
This is because if we draw from 2020QE, we have only 4 years, and the annualized return of the trend line will be too high and is not long-term sustainable, a longer trend line which yield a more reasonable long term sustainable growth rate will be better.
HK property market is more sensitive to interest rate than the level of US stock market, otherwise HK housing market should rise past year given the rising of US stock market last year.
多謝教授的分享。我覺得你這樣用淺白的語言，令我容易了解現在狀況，由於我沒有經濟背景，多謝你
Welcome
感謝教授一個月前美國的經濟數據分析! 令我有時間轉為保守!
Welcome, good to hear that
教授, 多謝您午飯後分享, 今日睇見日本股市好似10米高台跳水，心臟差啲都頂唔順啊！😅
Welcome
莊教授,多謝你分享!
Thx Tony
謝謝莊教授🙏
Thx
Thank you professor, for your very insightful suggestions. Allen.
Welcome Allen
莊教授, 謝謝分享 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
Welcome Jacky
多謝教授，日股今天是典型股災
Welcome Damian
Professor, did you mean yen will no longer stay weak? In the next few weeks, are we able to predict if yen will go stronger or weaker based on the stock market trend? If so, what are the criteria to predict?
Yen is week in the past because of the widening interest rate spread, now the spread is narrowing, it will keep going strong after US interest rate cut.
Thanks professor. Insightful. Matthew.
Welcome Matthew
晚上好教授😊，我唔識炒股，但係覺得除了股票，無論公或強積金都一定要做足風險管理，唔能夠長揸，升跌係有週期，一個浪完又再重新起步，唔打理好大機會到退休時都係原地踏步，我係四月至六月已經出哂手上股票同公積金，雖然唔知自己見解係唔係正確，依兩年嘅成績都係滿意嘅，亦可安心迎接大風雨來臨。
Nice to hear that Jacky
Thanks
Thx Kayan
如果衰退出現，拆倉下黃金長債會受波及嗎？
這個影響是否屬短期？
之後是否仍會在減息通缩預期下支持長債上升？
在減息美匯下跌預期下支持金價？
Gold also dropped yesterday, but carried trade of yen for the buying of gold should not be a major trend as gold doesnt carry interest either, so the price of gold should depends on fundamentals and interest rate of US. Whether bond price will rise also depends on its risk, if US rating is lowered due to recession, bond price will also go down.
@@profterencechongtheeconomi8391 很多人借日元買美債。雖然因為通脹預期下降，會另長債價升，但係如果拆倉另流動性緊張，似乎債價都可以在「疑似衰退」及早期衰退下跌？之後如你所說，如果衰退愈演愈烈，rating下降，債都係跌。咁依2008年級別來部署，不就連長債(不持有到到期)也没有避險作用？
@@profterencechongtheeconomi8391 那美債如果不持有到期，就沒有避險作用了。拆倉，「疑似衰退」下流動性緊張，「衰退早期」的流動性緊張，「衰退當下」的評級下降，都另美債風險好大。(以2008到現今這個級別的升浪來看)
Thank you Prof Chong. Indeed it seems Jeremey Siegel was interviewed and said Fed funds are way too high and advocated for emergency rate cuts.
I notice that, but cutting rate may not help the stock market, as will just further eliminate the carried trade, and the high tech sector is support by belief but not the low interest rate environment
請問教授，為什麼選擇由2008開始拉trendline, 而不是2020QE 開始計？
This is because if we draw from 2020QE, we have only 4 years, and the annualized return of the trend line will be too high and is not long-term sustainable, a longer trend line which yield a more reasonable long term sustainable growth rate will be better.
@@profterencechongtheeconomi8391 謝謝教授🙏
@@kh1234-x3b welcome Heining
教授講三成係指標指?道指納指呢?
Around 30 percents for all 3, but Nasqad is more over priced than the other 2
港股可上返18000附近嗎？
18000 也是很便宜, pe 很低、減息後反彈空間很大
@@profterencechongtheeconomi8391 謝謝你
@@kayanmak7315 welcome Kayan
莊教授，如果9月真的有股災，咁香港樓市更插水，減息都冇用了？😢
HK property market is more sensitive to interest rate than the level of US stock market, otherwise HK housing market should rise past year given the rising of US stock market last year.
可以觀望。導指回落至25000
日元月底會再跌到160，大快人心