My predictions: - Tebogo will run under Yohan Blake's 19.26 within the next few years, but never break Bolt's 19.19 - Lyles has one more 19.3x or high 19.2x in him, but he won't break Yohan Blake's 19.26 - Bednerak will be the most consistent of the bunch in the 19.4x ~ 19.6x range - Knighton will never best his 19.49, but may run a 19.5x, & a few more 19.6x's before retiring Probably pretty boring takes, but I feel like they're realistic, so that's my guess. Tebogo has the best shot, but 19.19 is crazy. Bolt was lacking some speed endurance (if Lyles a 9.8x 100m runner at the time did a 19.31, then a 9.58 100m runner with the same speed endurance could go 18.99 honestly or 19.0x), but he's just way too fast for everyone else. Yohan Blake was the only one with an actual chance & he had a 9.69 PB. I don't think a runner without a sub 9.70 100m has the speed to pull off a 19.18 or better even if they have the endurance. Bolt being more than a tenth of a second faster than anyone else at the 100m is just too much speed to overcome imo. Tebogo does have even more speed endurance than Lyles as he is the 300m WR holder & has run a 43.0x 400m split, but he's at 9.8x, not 9.7x. Since Tebogo has more speed endurance than Lyles he may be the only one that could crack 19.19 without a sub-9.7 100m, maybe if he cracks 9.75 in the 100m he'll be able to pull off a 19.1x in the 200m, I would love to see that!
Luck will also play part. Had Bolt had perfect luck, I could see his times to never be broken. But he had negative wind on both of his 200m WRs! He could've got close to 19.00 in perfect conditions. Thus I think the current people can have chance if they find themselves on their best condition, on a +1.5s wind race.
bolts strength obviously wasnt his speed endurance, but he still had pretty crazy endurance considering he ran 9.27 and 9.32 into -0.3 and -0.9 headwinds... with perfect conditions (which is very unlikely, but still possible), he definitely couldve broken into the 18.9x range considering he missed months of training in '09 due to a car accident, obviously had to run 7 rounds prior to the 200 final, and the bad wind condition
Seems pretty realistic takes but erriyon is still so young and if tebogo shaves some time off his start he could get close and Lyle’s if everything comes together I would say he has a decent chance
I don't know who's going to set the new 200m record, but I know for sure Fred Kerley is gonna break the 100m record because he said he will. There's no stopping him....
Noah honestly still has a chance. He smashed his pb after loosing to De Grasse/Bednarek in 2021, since he lost to Tebogo this time. He could come back hard to break his pb once again. Hot take but its my opinion
@@StickIQ They wouldn't be recognized as the GOAT though. Someone needs the WR + the threepeat at Olympics or they need a WR so ridiculous (like 18.99) that it's undisputed that they're the best.
Bednarek has run the 3rd most sub-20s in history behind only Lyles/Bolt. He's also ran many 19.6s this year, so while it was a 1 round race, it wasn't a 1-off, Bednarek it's pretty consistent near that time. Knighton that was for sure a 1-off race, his next best is a high 19.6 & his SB has slowed down gradually each year for 2 years afterwards.
@@richardgallimore5976 I’m just pointing out how these 4 guys ran their 200m PBs. That’s all. • King Noah Lyles ran 19.31 with 3 rounds in 2022. • Letsile Tebogo ran 19.46 with 6 rounds (3 rounds in 100m + 3 rounds in 200m) • Erriyon Knighton ran 19.49 in a 1-off race (1 round race) • Kenny Bednarek ran 19.57 in a 1-off race (1 round race) These are facts. Simple. I didn’t downplay their performances/consistencies.
Running 6 rounds and still able to clock 19.46 means supreme fitness ..i believe tebogo will run 19.2 this yr his strength is what separates him from everyone else
@@Someone-hi1nt Guess I'm dumb, lol. I always thought a "1-off race" meant an outlier, something they can only achieve once & haven't got close too since. Or maybe I'm not dumb, the definition I found online was: "A happening that occurs only once and is not repeated". That sounds closer to my understanding, saying something is a one-off is implying it won't be repeated as in "Bednerak ran 19.57, but he won't go that fast again".
You know at one point people were saying Erriyon was going to be the one because he managed 19.49 at 18 years old, but since then he's become a 19.7 specialist. So I wonder if we should exercise caution when getting excited over young phenoms because they seem to peak super early and then never live up to the hype later
The pressure that comes with being a Junior record holder is that the media and people will always be watching their every move and calling them the next Usain Bolt I think it just puts a lot of pressure on them I'm guessing if Knighton didn't have his issues that he was dealing with I think he would've ran 19.6x
Yeah this is exactly what I was thinking. I mean I’d love for tebogo to do it and all but like let’s leave these world record predictions alone until someone is actually getting really close (like in the 19.3/.2 range)
especially now with insane pressure coming from a social media on steroids with channels such as this hyping up children who are still in high school to be the next Usain Bolt
I honestly think Tebogo has a better chance of breaking the 400m record than the 200m. He certainly has a chance of breaking the 200m record, but I don't know if he has the raw speed to do it, which is evidenced by his 100m times. His strength appears to be speed endurance over raw top speed, which is what makes him so great at the 200m, and which is what also allowed him to run the second fastest 4x400m split in history without even training for a 400m and after running all the rounds of the 100m and 200m at the Olympics. Speed endurance is his strength, and I think he'd be wise to focus more a 200/400 double rather than a 100/200 double.
Meet Gout Gout, the Australian sprint starlet turning heads at 16-years-old You will have seen him on social media for his blistering pace, but who is the teenager out of Queensland, Australia who is the talk of the athletics world and does not want to be compared to Usain Bolt? Gout Gout, the 16-year-old Australian who has been taking the athletics world by storm. Gout Gout: the boy so good, they named him twice. The Australian sprinter has caught the attention of the athletics world after a stunning 100m run in Brisbane which has gone viral on social media. You may not recognise the name yet, but you will know if you have seen that clip of his incredible pace. Who knows, he may well be competing in that very city at the Olympic Games eight years from now. Get to know Gout Gout, the 16-year-old sprinting sensation out of Queensland. Gout was born in 2007 to South Sudanese parents, who had emigrated to Australia a few years before he was born. He has always showed promise as a sprinter; as a 15-year-old, he not only won the men’s under-18 200m final at the 2023 Australian Junior Athletics Championships, but set a national under-20 record as a teenager. Gout also ran a stunning 10.29s over 100m in March 2024, blitzing the opposition and finding an astounding burst of acceleration in the final 50m to further hammer home his advantage. To put that time into context, if the 16-year-old had ran that time at Paris 2024, he would have made it through the preliminary rounds and into the first round of the men’s 100m event. Gout holds the Australian under-16 national record in both the men’s 100m and 200m races, setting personal bests in both events this year. Gout compared to Olympic great Usain Bolt Gout has been compared to the greatest sprinter of all time, eight-time Olympic champion Usain Bolt. It is not easy for a 16-year-old to have that pressure, but equally it speaks of just how highly held he is in the eyes of the athletics world. Speaking about the comparisons in April, Gout said (as per Fox Sports), “It’s pretty cool because Usain Bolt is arguably the greatest athlete of all time and just being compared to him is a great feeling. Obviously I’m Gout Gout so I’m trying make a name for myself. If I can get to the level he was that would be a great achievement.” The teenager will be 20-years-old by the time the next Olympic Games come round at LA 2028, and though it is still early days in Gout’s career, he will surely have his eyes focused on the States. Even better, the following Olympiad takes place in his home state of Queensland, Brisbane 2032, by which time he will have plenty more experience under his belt. The future is certainly bright for Gout Gout, a name you will no doubt hear again.
The answer is none of the above. I don't believe that any of them can do it. While I believe that there is always a chance, it just won't be anytime soon. The 100m is even more daunting and I can't see a record in that event for decades.
I agree. The 200 could possibly be broken by Tebogo under unicorn perfect conditions in the future, but highly unlikely. The 9.58 100. Just won't be touched for decades period. Nobody is even close.
I think we need to look at 2026 as possibly a year of World Record attempts in some events including in the men's 200m. The World Ultimate Championships will be introduced and is in a different format than the usual World Athletics Championships as it will feature only the best of the best from the WA ranking system. I think this event will be very interesting as I think some athletes will focus on one specific event throughout the season to either better their PB or reach some historic times (National/Area/World Records). So I think these four, if healthy, may do something like that for 2026 and who knows, a WR in the 200m may happen. And the same could said even other events too, you may never know. Lastly, I think it's important to remember that records are meant to broken so I definitely wouldn't count out any athlete from breaking records in their events unless they're super injury prone and/or until they hang their spikes/shoes up. So no discouraging comments about older athletes in their late twenties to early thirties or athletes who don't PB every year, let's be patient and play it out.
My money is on Tebogo, but only until Gout Gout turns 20 I don't think Noah will break any world record. He uses too much power while closing, but Tebogo is just so smooth and that shows how much more he can get out of that speed tank.
I think in 2025 and maybe 2026 lyles has the better shot, but in years beyond it’s definitely tebogo. Lyles has probably 2-3 more years of top running while tebego has like 8-9 more years, so unless lyles runs sub 19 in the next 2 years, im gonna call tebogo having the WR and maybe sub 19 by the time hes done
King Kenny will continue to run consistently but I don't think he will get further than 19.3-19.4 and even then 19.3 is a stretch. I don't think it will be him. Erriyon is a bit of a wild card. He's the youngest and has already run a 19.49 but he hasn't got close to that since, running consistent 19.8s. He could well have it in him to slowly progress down to consistently hitting around 19.5 and have an absolute belter where he gets really close, but I think he's focused on learning how to become a serial winner rather than break records. I hope he does run that belter, it will be amazing to watch. Lyles is currently in his prime and is a serial winner, Olympic 200m finals be damned. He's gotten the closest so far and has done a lot of work on his biggest shortcoming but his PB dates back to 2022 now and his actions seem to suggest a shift of focus to winning medals rather than breaking records, talk and writing on shoes is cheap. That loss to Tebogo could be the push he needs to really attack the 200m hard again and push his times back down. I hope he still has the years to properly attack it. Tebogo is the one with the best chance within the next 5 years I think. Age is on his side and he seems to be able to run medal contention times in whatever sprint event he wants at a moments notice. The man we saw win the Olympic final was a different beast to the one we've seen ease up during 9.9s in the 100m. I hope he keeps that fire in his belly and aims for the edge of the universe. If anyone can reach it, it's him.
Lyles reached his peak at 19.3 and is now past his prime. Johnson is a rare freak of nature. Tebogo and Knighton are super young and still improving, though Tebogo is dropping times more steadily. Either of these two can break Bolt's 19.19.
Tebogo is the only candidate with a real chance, especially age-based consideration. Lyles' capitulation at the Olympics was more than "Covid". It was mental. He wouldn't have run if he couldn't believe he could actually do it...and then failed.
There's multiple people currently running, who could beat it on their perfect day. Lyles, Tebogo ofc seem like the likeliest in next few years, but there's few others who have already doing 19.50ish times so can't really count them out either.
Tebogo has the best chance of the group once he improves his strength (he's still relatively slender among sprinters). His form is very impressive. Even with imroved strength though, I think Bolt's combination of body composition (ie heigjt and relatively long legs) and his incredible strength/endurance are a once in a lifetime combination.
I agree with you I just think this year was messy for him with the things he was dealing with You could see he's early season races that he was ready I feel he could've gone 19.6x for he's season best
tebogo just lacking pure speed. basically all the sprinters expect MJ have been faster than tebogo. he got the endurance for 400 also but only runs 9.86. he gotta go 9.70 level and he is beating the WR
Great presentation as usual. Nice charts and graphs. Now, even with the juiced up track, and the juiced up shoes, none of those 4 can break the 100m or 200m. In this last olympic, the winning times for the 100m and the 200m, were slower than the times in which Bolt ran the SEMI-FINAL of most of his races.
All i Will say is progress in track is not always linear. People seem to have gout gout nailed on as the heir apparent for the world record but I would be careful about this. We’ve seen way too many young kids hyped up for running really quick times in their youth, only to never coke close to those times again. Just let people develop at their own pace. Being fast as a junior doesn’t guarantee success as a senior
If Tebogo continues his trend of improvement, becomes stronger (which is highly probable), stays physically and mentally healthy and stays hungry for the record, maybe not in 2 but 4 years he should be pretty close to breaking or will break the record. Does noah have potential for growth? Yes, but comprehensively, tebogo has the edge where potential is concerned. I am notaiming to disregard the other athletes but tebogo has been gaining on and arguably has or is about to surpass lyles. Either way i hope from the four that they push each other to do the best they can for the sport.
In 2017 I did some research trying to figure out the "prime" age for physical performance. Obviously it can be very subjective, but I checked all the world records in athletics, swimming and Olympic weightlifting, calculating the age of the athletes at the time of setting the world record. The median age was 24 years and 242 days.
Tebogo has never stagnated like Lyles!! Possibly Tebogo can go below 19.4 in 2025.. After that there is an opportunity to attack WR in 2026. Then Lyles is over. I think with improved strength and start that Gout Gout will be the one with the greatest potential to break Bolt's record within 5 years.
If Noah put’s the same focus and effort, that allowed him to win 100m Olympic Gold Medal, into the 200m he will break his 2022 200m American Record (AR) very soon and has the best chance to break the 200m WR first. Based on these factors: 1. Top end speed (27+ MPH) 2. Speed endurance (70m of 100m @ 26+ MPH) 3. Consistency (40 200m timings under 20s [200m King] 6 more than Bolt) Noah’s 1st half of his AR 200m was 10.15s (slower than Bolt by 0.23) and final 100m was 9.16s (faster than Bolt by 0.11). Note: Noah’s SB 100m was 9.95s (0.2 difference of 200m 1st half). Bolt’s 9.58s 100m 2009 WR & 19.19s 200m WR (9.92s 1st half & 9.27s 2nd half) 4 days later (0.34 difference of 200m 1st half). Fast forward to 9.79 Noah and add 0.2 to his SB 100m then 1st half of 200m time would be 9.99. If we add 9.99 & 9.16 we get 19.15 (even if we add 9.99+9.19=19.18) NEW 200m WRs! Note: 9.99+9.2=19.19 and equals WR. While Noah has the best chance to be first to set new 200m record it will not last long because Tebogo’s has the next best chance!
@matiusclicarelli700 Gout Gout is the next young up and comer just like Knighton was 4 or 5 years ago... He'll probably be the top 200m athlete to possibly break the WW next decade.
Gout Gout has the most potential to break Usain Bolt’s 200-meter record, though he’s not ready yet. His raw talent is unmatched, and with a few more years of development, he could get there. I once thought Erriyon Knighton was the one to do it, but after last year’s slump, he hasn’t kept pace. By now, he should be on par with Tebogo, but he’s fallen behind.
Tobogo and Knighton, can still improve, they have the advantage. Knighton has more development to come on his body, if he wants it bad enough. Tobogo is a freak and I believe he will get closest to the GOAT's world record, but breaking it, 🧐
Not until someone of Bolt’s physical build or slightly bigger comes along will the record be broken. It’s the second 100 meter stride that will break it because that’s where Bolt set it.
11:12 Whilst some sources say Lyles closed his final 100m of his 19.31 in 9.16, other (often more credible) sources say he split around 9.24 for his final 100 (and went out in 10.07). I myself got this time when looking at his race however I get I can’t do it as accurately as the professional ‘split measure-ers’. 11:37 Whilst Tebogo may have closed in 9.34 in his 19.46 in the Olympics (easing at the line), he closed in 9.25 in his 19.55 run in Zurich, post-Olympics. He also ran that time after many races beforehand after Paris and on a wet track. Given ideal conditions Tebogo can probably close in 9.20 or under. Lyles also hasn’t shown any signs of improving on his 19.31, before or since 2022. Since he put on half a kilogram of muscle between 2022 and 2023 (from what I remember, correct me if I’m wrong) his 100 times have improved slightly however his 200 times have slowed slightly. His 19.31 was when he was at his absolute best, with a hunger to win (revenge from Tokyo), a home crowd championship and good competition (19.49 Knighton and 19.7/8 Bednarek). Lyles hasn’t shown that he can run sub-19.50 whilst doubling - he failed at 2023 World Championships, 2024 Trials and 2024 Olympics (albeit with Covid). He in fact hasn’t run sub 19.50 since 2023 and that would’ve been a high 19.5 if there hadn’t been a strong tailwind (+1.6m/s tailwind in his 19.47 at the London Diamond League; I would know because I was there in person). Tebogo on the other hand, as well as being young, is still showing good progression, despite what it looks like. His 19.50 in 2023 was the same race as Lyles’ 19.47 and had the same +1.6m/s tailwind. It was fairly windy that day, I remember. If you convert his 19.50 (+1.6m/s) to 0.0m/s wind he would’ve run 19.62. In his 19.46 run (+0.4m/s) he would’ve run 19.49 with no wind - whilst beating his chest. So he’s improved his 200m time by over a tenth of a second from last year if you use rough estimates of converting winds. If Tebogo can improve his first 100 on the bend - not his start (unlike Lyles, since Tebogo has a very good start) - from 10.12 to 10.05; totally attainable, then go from closing in 9.25 on a wet track and whilst fatigued, to 9.20 on a dry track and in good conditions then there could be the potential for a 10.05 + 9.20 for him. I get it’s extremely difficult to put the perfect race together - something Tebogo’s not done yet - but I definitely see the potential for him to do so in the not too distant future.
I don't think your analysis of Noah is accurate Noah Lyles has clearly improved between 2023 and 2024, and any claim to the contrary overlooks crucial details. In 2024, despite having a slower reaction time of 0.17 seconds compared to 0.14 seconds in 2023, he managed to run faster, finishing in 9.79 seconds versus 9.83 seconds in Budapest. This means that Lyles lost around 0.03 seconds at the start but compensated during the race itself, demonstrating that his performance on the track has improved. His mid-race splits, particularly between 50m and 70m, were faster in 2024, with 0.83 seconds for the 50-60m segment and 0.82 seconds for 60-70m, compared to 0.83 seconds for both segments in 2023. These gains highlight his ability to maximize his top-end speed better than before. While the +1.0 m/s tailwind in 2024 could suggest favorable conditions, it does not fully account for his faster time, as his slower reaction time countered much of the wind’s potential benefit. Furthermore, Lyles’ ability to maintain his speed in the final 40 meters confirms his exceptional endurance and race execution, which are consistent with his progression as an athlete. In fact, had his reaction time in 2024 matched that of 2023, he likely would have run closer to 9.76 seconds or better. This evidence demonstrates that Noah has not stagnated but continues to improve in key aspects of his performance, including speed and endurance,
My predictions tend to be optimistic, but Tebogo is the only one I can see potentially beating Bolt's record. Any predictions are difficult, but with athletes as young as Tebogo and Knighton, trying to guess almost an entire career before them is obviously impossible. Look at how many athletes break NCAA records and look to have amazing potential, but their pro careers never amount to much. Tebogo does at least have consistency and progression on his side, as well as still being really young. If Lyles sticks to his current goals of being the face of athletics, i.e. wanting to win 100m and 200m at global championships, I can see him lowering his 100m PB to maybe 9.75, but I doubt he will beat his 19.31, although he may be able to go sub 19.4 again. Kenny B is an amazing athlete, who continues to improve over time, but his age and rate of progression don't put him on a good enough trigectory to challenge the record. I can still see him running low 19.4's and potentially getting a global gold in the 200m if things go his way. Knighton running a 19.49 at 18 and still being only 20 suggests amazing potential, but after his controversy this year and a couple of seasons of not running close to 19.49, it's difficult to be over confident about what his future holds. Obviously the potential is there, but whether or not he will fulfill that potential is very much up for debate. I could easily imagine him becoming the dominant 200m runner in the future running 19.2's and possibly challening the record, but I can equally see him never beating his 19.49. Tebogo has the most potential across all sprint distances and seems to have the most natural ability, but seems to be less focused. I would say a 400m WR is more likely for him than the shorter sprints, but I wouldn't rule anything out. At the moment his 100m is his least competitive event, but if he goes the Noah route and focuses more on his starts and drive phase, I can see that lowering his 100m and 200m PB's by over 0.1, but that still puts him a long way short of Bolt's record. That said, he's only 21, still progressing and he may not peak until his late 20's, so even Bolt's 100m record could be a potential target, but at the moment I would say low 19.3's or high 19.2's are likely to be the best he will achieve in the 200m.
Noah lyles vs Tebogo is slowly becoming an interesting rivalry.. so I wouldn't be surprised if both of them push each other over edge, then knighton comes in vs Tebogo
its essentially down to knighton upping his game more, tebogo keeping up with his improvement, lyles clutching the 200m wrbefore anyone else has a chance or maybe kenny. If its not those 4 its unlikely that anybody currently competing at the top will break it.
Lyle's has peeked in my opinion and is distracted by Media and hype. He may have more sub 20s but he's kind of stuck at a point. Tebogo is a blend of Johnson with his endurance and bolt with his sprint and graceful form. His trend is showing more rapid progress at the right time.
These four athletes are superb competitors but none of them have the special combination of stride length, power and cadence to beat Bolt's 19.19 200m record. We sometimes take Bolt's performance for granted these days but as has been said, when you look at it closely, his first half split was mind-blowing and I am skeptical any of them will get down to 19.25 let alone 19.19. The record will be beaten eventually but only by a tall fast striding runner imho- some people favor Gout Gout. If not him, it will be some tall young guy like him.
I believe Bolt will keep his 200 m and 100 longer than anyone in history. All the unique elements that make him what he was ,is… not sure anyone running currently has it?
None of them can do it at their current level. Tebogo looks like the most likely to not have reached his peak yet. If he continues to improve he might be able to do it, but most likely he’s getting very close to his peak already.
I don't think any of those guys will go under 19.19, Tebogo could possibly break the 400 WR tho by a couple of hundredths of a second, maybe 43 seconds dead
Noah is too old and has not improved his 200 in two years. Just keep the wheel on stand by so he can be pushed off the field again the next time he loses to Tebogo
Too old? 😂 Several sprinters peaked early 30s. No improvement? Noah had covid when running this year’s 200m and you can clearly see how much his 100m time has progressed since setting his 19.31s 200m run.
@@Gr8IncarnateBecause he didn't want his competitors to have a mental edge over him in the 200m. That's why, that's what he said. The fact he still got the bronze medal at the Olympics and still ran sub 20 shows how world class he is talent wise and how physically fatigued his body was from getting Covid. Who knows what time he could have ran if he was healthy though 🤷🏾♂️ I think some people need to give more credit to Noah, Quincy Hall and many athletes for pulling through and getting medals even on an off day (with injuries or sickness etc).
Why Noah nas not seemed to improve his time of 19.31 since 2022: When he ran his 19.31 he only ran the 200m. Recently though, he's been going for the double in the 100m and 200m. Sprint season 1 highlighted how tired noah was after running 3 rounds of the 100m and another 2 rounds of the 200m before the final. The reason I still think he has a chance is that in his 19.31 he ran his first 100m in 10.15 seconds. In the olympics just there he ran his first 100m with covid and 3 rounds of the 100m and 2 rounds of the 200m in 10.18 seconds... Think about what he could get without covid and only running the 200m... And we all know he can run the last 100m In low 9.2 or even 9.1s if he is really in shape.
Gout Gout is 16 years old. In 2032 he will be 23 and running in his home state of Queensland. If he progresses at anything like his current rate between now and then, he will be nearly unbeatable. 👍👍👍👍
If Lyles runs a pb in the 2025 season; showing he can combine his 100 speed and has returned to his 200 best strength, then I can see him getting close in 2026. If he hasn’t broken it by 2026, then I’m looking at Tebogo. But I have no idea what Tebogo is going to focus on, so that record may not fall if he doesn’t go for it
Lyles if he focuses on 200 at the expense of 100, next season or two. Tebogo has a good shot for sure, and it wouldn't be surprising. Knighton is approaching both the time and age to get there. THIS is my pick. Father Time is against Lyles, but the other two have years, and at least one more Olympic games to get there. Possibly two.
EK or LT has best chance at breaking 200m wr, if Lyles had a start like the Italian dude he could, but he is gives up too much in the drive faze at this point to overcome it with pure top end speed endurance alone. Dont really see it happening stil. But be sick to watch
Kenny has only ever broken 19.6 twice that is a very long way off the WR, so unless he can show he can do sub 19.6 more regularly he has no chance of breaking the WR Knighton is interesting. He has one great run at 19.49 and the his next best is 19.69. He is young but first needs to show that 19.49 was not just a one off. Tebogo has a great chance. He has 3 runs under 19.6 with 2 of those in 2024, and a best of 19.46 so he is improving. There is a good chance he will break 19.4 in 2025, maybe even 19.3. He has a definite chance of breaking the WR Then there is Noah, Mr Consistency. He has 9 runs under 19.6 and a 10th at 19.61. He is methodical in improving and I would not be surprised that the last couple of seasons where he concentrated more on the 100m were part of a plan to improve his 200m time by getting out quicker in the first 100m. He is definitely capable of going sub 19.3. I still think he is the most likely to break the WR
If Kishane stays healthy, he’ll own the 100 in ‘25 and ‘26 … I doubt he’ll be able to put down a Bolt-beating time, but I do think he’ll relegate Lyles to second-or-worse starting next year. Lyles best 100’s are behind him.
If you think about it many of the 200m world records are also/or used to run the 400m. Usain Bolt and Michael Johnson notably. So maybe Tebogo might have the biggest chance as he has run 9.86, 19.46, 30.69 and a 43.03 split. Let him rest up and hell come back next year pretty good. Tebogo I believe can go 9.8high or 9.7low and I believe he can run 19.3 or less
Tebogo certainly will, I honestly expect him to dominate the 2025 season and break the 200m World Record, even the 400m is at risk. A good winter can do so much at his age, Lyles also can improve. But Lyles can lose to Tebogo and Tebogo only against himself next season.
This one got me thinking! Lyles is the only one with the uncanny stamina of Michael Johnson. But stats don't lie, I don't see him top his near perfect 19.31. The difference was that GOD-LIKE opening 9.92 by bolt which IS THE ONLY sub 10 1st 100 clocking ever! Lyles can't top that! The closest we ever saw someone in this 4 do something like that was when Knighton ran that bend for that 19.49 The answer is actually out there! The only one who really does not know how fast he can run is Tebogo! We are yet to see his best. Tebogo is most likely to break 19.19....... But that 9.58!!...... Like Bolt said, he hasn't yet been seen.
If I had to pick one of these it would have to be Tebogo. Although to be honest I think the record will still be missed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a sub 19.3 though.
The real problem with breaking Bolt's record is not talent, it is the absence of the record breaker in the races. When Bolt broke his first record in the 100m, he was running against Asafa Powell, someone who held the record, meaning someone who could run at world record time. So to beat such a person, you have to break the record. The benefit after breaking the record is that you only have yourself to run against. When Bolt set 19.19 in 200m, he was the record holder, that way he was the one to beat, he had ability to run at world record time, so to break it, he just had to train better than before. If you are the record holder and you train harder, you become better and faster than the record holder, which means you keep breaking the records, moreover you know exactly how the record was broken, so you know what to improve. This is why we see Sydney McLaughlin breaking her own record over and over. The current crop of people do not have anyone who can run at the current world record on a normal day, so no matter how competitive they become, simply inching closer to the record beats everyone. Lyles probably does not have anymore 19.3x left in him, so he cant push Tebogo towards the 19.20s. The only true hope is if Knighton recovers and is able to run at least 19.25 in the same field as someone like Tebogo. In short, Tebogo can break the record, but we need someone who can run very close to the record itself. Competition is the problem, not speed, notice how Lyles and the Jamaican guy been hiding. Maybe not hiding, but their absence lowered the level of competition. Bolt's record will be broken the moment any two people can compete at < 19:30.
I'm wondering if more science could be brought to bear on these speculations. What kinds of real world measurements are made in addition to the training regimen to estimate peak performance on any given day?
100m WR 9.58 200m WR 19.19 Fast is 9.58 for 100m fast is 19.19 200m So for the 100m 10s+9.58s=19.58/2=9.79 any thing under 9.79s So for the 200m 20s+19.19=39.19/2=19.59 any thing under 19.59s
Someone from Jamaica like Kishane will break it. . Bolt and Blake as Jamaicans hold the top two fastest 100m records. Insane how fast Jamaicans are. Donald Quarie was also another jamaican. Quarie was the first to break world records
13 minutes that could have been 4 minutes. Clearly it's Tebogo right now, Knighton after him and later on Gout Gout that has the most realistic chance.
My predictions:
- Tebogo will run under Yohan Blake's 19.26 within the next few years, but never break Bolt's 19.19
- Lyles has one more 19.3x or high 19.2x in him, but he won't break Yohan Blake's 19.26
- Bednerak will be the most consistent of the bunch in the 19.4x ~ 19.6x range
- Knighton will never best his 19.49, but may run a 19.5x, & a few more 19.6x's before retiring
Probably pretty boring takes, but I feel like they're realistic, so that's my guess. Tebogo has the best shot, but 19.19 is crazy. Bolt was lacking some speed endurance (if Lyles a 9.8x 100m runner at the time did a 19.31, then a 9.58 100m runner with the same speed endurance could go 18.99 honestly or 19.0x), but he's just way too fast for everyone else. Yohan Blake was the only one with an actual chance & he had a 9.69 PB. I don't think a runner without a sub 9.70 100m has the speed to pull off a 19.18 or better even if they have the endurance. Bolt being more than a tenth of a second faster than anyone else at the 100m is just too much speed to overcome imo.
Tebogo does have even more speed endurance than Lyles as he is the 300m WR holder & has run a 43.0x 400m split, but he's at 9.8x, not 9.7x. Since Tebogo has more speed endurance than Lyles he may be the only one that could crack 19.19 without a sub-9.7 100m, maybe if he cracks 9.75 in the 100m he'll be able to pull off a 19.1x in the 200m, I would love to see that!
well said
Luck will also play part. Had Bolt had perfect luck, I could see his times to never be broken. But he had negative wind on both of his 200m WRs! He could've got close to 19.00 in perfect conditions.
Thus I think the current people can have chance if they find themselves on their best condition, on a +1.5s wind race.
bolts strength obviously wasnt his speed endurance, but he still had pretty crazy endurance considering he ran 9.27 and 9.32 into -0.3 and -0.9 headwinds... with perfect conditions (which is very unlikely, but still possible), he definitely couldve broken into the 18.9x range considering he missed months of training in '09 due to a car accident, obviously had to run 7 rounds prior to the 200 final, and the bad wind condition
That’s a fair assessment
Seems pretty realistic takes but erriyon is still so young and if tebogo shaves some time off his start he could get close and Lyle’s if everything comes together I would say he has a decent chance
I don't know who's going to set the new 200m record, but I know for sure Fred Kerley is gonna break the 100m record because he said he will. There's no stopping him....
fred kerley is my glorious
😂😂nice joke bro
The only thing stopping him is himself tripping over his own damn shoes 🤣🤣
"Talk your sh*t man." - Fred Kerley
… are you serious rn
Noah honestly still has a chance. He smashed his pb after loosing to De Grasse/Bednarek in 2021, since he lost to Tebogo this time. He could come back hard to break his pb once again. Hot take but its my opinion
this is a luke warm take
@@LeonEdwardsFitnessOfficial Luke warm how exactly?
@@TheWayWithKhuwayne because its true
here's a hot take: noah lyles is cooked
@@LeonEdwardsFitnessOfficial I'm asking how, what do you mean exactly?
bolt's WR race was with -0.3 wind
After 7 rounds of races... recovering from the flu...
If someone gets 19.18 with +2.0 wind they will be officially recognised as the 200m world record holder so...
@@StickIQ They wouldn't be recognized as the GOAT though. Someone needs the WR + the threepeat at Olympics or they need a WR so ridiculous (like 18.99) that it's undisputed that they're the best.
@@richardgallimore5976 absolutely true
@@datname1939 Yohan Blake was recovering from the flu when he ran his 9.69s -0.1 m/s
King Noah Lyles: 19.31 (3 rounds)
Letsile Tebogo: 19.46 (6 rounds)
Erriyon Knighton: 19.49 (1-off race)
Kenny Bednarek: 19.57 (1-off race)
Bednarek has run the 3rd most sub-20s in history behind only Lyles/Bolt. He's also ran many 19.6s this year, so while it was a 1 round race, it wasn't a 1-off, Bednarek it's pretty consistent near that time.
Knighton that was for sure a 1-off race, his next best is a high 19.6 & his SB has slowed down gradually each year for 2 years afterwards.
@@richardgallimore5976 I’m just pointing out how these 4 guys ran their 200m PBs. That’s all.
• King Noah Lyles ran 19.31 with 3 rounds in 2022.
• Letsile Tebogo ran 19.46 with 6 rounds (3 rounds in 100m + 3 rounds in 200m)
• Erriyon Knighton ran 19.49 in a 1-off race (1 round race)
• Kenny Bednarek ran 19.57 in a 1-off race (1 round race)
These are facts. Simple. I didn’t downplay their performances/consistencies.
@@richardgallimore5976 a 1 round race literally is a 1-off race lol, what does "while it was a 1 round race, i wasn't a 1-off" mean
Running 6 rounds and still able to clock 19.46 means supreme fitness ..i believe tebogo will run 19.2 this yr his strength is what separates him from everyone else
@@Someone-hi1nt Guess I'm dumb, lol. I always thought a "1-off race" meant an outlier, something they can only achieve once & haven't got close too since.
Or maybe I'm not dumb, the definition I found online was: "A happening that occurs only once and is not repeated". That sounds closer to my understanding, saying something is a one-off is implying it won't be repeated as in "Bednerak ran 19.57, but he won't go that fast again".
You know at one point people were saying Erriyon was going to be the one because he managed 19.49 at 18 years old, but since then he's become a 19.7 specialist. So I wonder if we should exercise caution when getting excited over young phenoms because they seem to peak super early and then never live up to the hype later
The pressure that comes with being a Junior record holder is that the media and people will always be watching their every move and calling them the next Usain Bolt I think it just puts a lot of pressure on them
I'm guessing if Knighton didn't have his issues that he was dealing with I think he would've ran 19.6x
Yeah this is exactly what I was thinking. I mean I’d love for tebogo to do it and all but like let’s leave these world record predictions alone until someone is actually getting really close (like in the 19.3/.2 range)
especially now with insane pressure coming from a social media on steroids with channels such as this hyping up children who are still in high school to be the next Usain Bolt
I'll be contrary and say none of them will break ANY of Bolt's records. Side-eye at Fred Kerley, too... 🤣🤣
Gout Gout ⏳
Amen.
Yes
Am from Botswana 🇧🇼 and even if Tebogo is my home boy that Sudanese boy is going to dominate for a long time and yes he is going to break bolt record
I honestly think Tebogo has a better chance of breaking the 400m record than the 200m. He certainly has a chance of breaking the 200m record, but I don't know if he has the raw speed to do it, which is evidenced by his 100m times. His strength appears to be speed endurance over raw top speed, which is what makes him so great at the 200m, and which is what also allowed him to run the second fastest 4x400m split in history without even training for a 400m and after running all the rounds of the 100m and 200m at the Olympics. Speed endurance is his strength, and I think he'd be wise to focus more a 200/400 double rather than a 100/200 double.
How can a 300m world record holder not training for 400m?
This makes me think back to that breakdown you did on Yohan Blake's 200, when he had a poor start, but had a blistering time...
Meet Gout Gout, the Australian sprint starlet turning heads at 16-years-old
You will have seen him on social media for his blistering pace, but who is the teenager out of Queensland, Australia who is the talk of the athletics world and does not want to be compared to Usain Bolt?
Gout Gout, the 16-year-old Australian who has been taking the athletics world by storm.
Gout Gout: the boy so good, they named him twice.
The Australian sprinter has caught the attention of the athletics world after a stunning 100m run in Brisbane which has gone viral on social media.
You may not recognise the name yet, but you will know if you have seen that clip of his incredible pace. Who knows, he may well be competing in that very city at the Olympic Games eight years from now.
Get to know Gout Gout, the 16-year-old sprinting sensation out of Queensland.
Gout was born in 2007 to South Sudanese parents, who had emigrated to Australia a few years before he was born.
He has always showed promise as a sprinter; as a 15-year-old, he not only won the men’s under-18 200m final at the 2023 Australian Junior Athletics Championships, but set a national under-20 record as a teenager.
Gout also ran a stunning 10.29s over 100m in March 2024, blitzing the opposition and finding an astounding burst of acceleration in the final 50m to further hammer home his advantage.
To put that time into context, if the 16-year-old had ran that time at Paris 2024, he would have made it through the preliminary rounds and into the first round of the men’s 100m event.
Gout holds the Australian under-16 national record in both the men’s 100m and 200m races, setting personal bests in both events this year.
Gout compared to Olympic great Usain Bolt
Gout has been compared to the greatest sprinter of all time, eight-time Olympic champion Usain Bolt.
It is not easy for a 16-year-old to have that pressure, but equally it speaks of just how highly held he is in the eyes of the athletics world.
Speaking about the comparisons in April, Gout said (as per Fox Sports), “It’s pretty cool because Usain Bolt is arguably the greatest athlete of all time and just being compared to him is a great feeling. Obviously I’m Gout Gout so I’m trying make a name for myself. If I can get to the level he was that would be a great achievement.”
The teenager will be 20-years-old by the time the next Olympic Games come round at LA 2028, and though it is still early days in Gout’s career, he will surely have his eyes focused on the States.
Even better, the following Olympiad takes place in his home state of Queensland, Brisbane 2032, by which time he will have plenty more experience under his belt.
The future is certainly bright for Gout Gout, a name you will no doubt hear again.
Yeah but he is never going to break the wR
“The next Usain Bolt” yeah, we heard that before
bro copy pasted an article
@@EntertainingRunner-vd3bn Yeah, so what, I am 84 years old I don't type quickly!
@@PalkaTV his 16-year-old age devision gout recorded a faster time than Bolt did at the same age.. let's wait and see.
The answer is none of the above. I don't believe that any of them can do it. While I believe that there is always a chance, it just won't be anytime soon. The 100m is even more daunting and I can't see a record in that event for decades.
I agree. The 200 could possibly be broken by Tebogo under unicorn perfect conditions in the future, but highly unlikely. The 9.58 100. Just won't be touched for decades period. Nobody is even close.
As always! You're professional, we like your videos keep going 🇲🇦💫
I think we need to look at 2026 as possibly a year of World Record attempts in some events including in the men's 200m. The World Ultimate Championships will be introduced and is in a different format than the usual World Athletics Championships as it will feature only the best of the best from the WA ranking system. I think this event will be very interesting as I think some athletes will focus on one specific event throughout the season to either better their PB or reach some historic times (National/Area/World Records).
So I think these four, if healthy, may do something like that for 2026 and who knows, a WR in the 200m may happen. And the same could said even other events too, you may never know.
Lastly, I think it's important to remember that records are meant to broken so I definitely wouldn't count out any athlete from breaking records in their events unless they're super injury prone and/or until they hang their spikes/shoes up. So no discouraging comments about older athletes in their late twenties to early thirties or athletes who don't PB every year, let's be patient and play it out.
My money is on Tebogo, but only until Gout Gout turns 20
I don't think Noah will break any world record. He uses too much power while closing, but Tebogo is just so smooth and that shows how much more he can get out of that speed tank.
I think in 2025 and maybe 2026 lyles has the better shot, but in years beyond it’s definitely tebogo. Lyles has probably 2-3 more years of top running while tebego has like 8-9 more years, so unless lyles runs sub 19 in the next 2 years, im gonna call tebogo having the WR and maybe sub 19 by the time hes done
Delulu talk
as if currently noah or lestsile. my wild card will probably be erryion knighton. but kung fu kenny is also to be watched
I doubt any of them will break Bolts record
Noah will run 19.12 to win the 2025 tokyo world championships btw.
@@jaredbowen3527 not happening
Gout gout will
King Kenny will continue to run consistently but I don't think he will get further than 19.3-19.4 and even then 19.3 is a stretch. I don't think it will be him.
Erriyon is a bit of a wild card. He's the youngest and has already run a 19.49 but he hasn't got close to that since, running consistent 19.8s. He could well have it in him to slowly progress down to consistently hitting around 19.5 and have an absolute belter where he gets really close, but I think he's focused on learning how to become a serial winner rather than break records. I hope he does run that belter, it will be amazing to watch.
Lyles is currently in his prime and is a serial winner, Olympic 200m finals be damned. He's gotten the closest so far and has done a lot of work on his biggest shortcoming but his PB dates back to 2022 now and his actions seem to suggest a shift of focus to winning medals rather than breaking records, talk and writing on shoes is cheap. That loss to Tebogo could be the push he needs to really attack the 200m hard again and push his times back down. I hope he still has the years to properly attack it.
Tebogo is the one with the best chance within the next 5 years I think. Age is on his side and he seems to be able to run medal contention times in whatever sprint event he wants at a moments notice. The man we saw win the Olympic final was a different beast to the one we've seen ease up during 9.9s in the 100m. I hope he keeps that fire in his belly and aims for the edge of the universe. If anyone can reach it, it's him.
The competition will be interesting if they come fit. I think Noah will have the edge too.
Thanks for your contributions.
No one is going to break that 200 m world record (19:19). STOP!!!!
I will 😉
Lyles reached his peak at 19.3 and is now past his prime. Johnson is a rare freak of nature. Tebogo and Knighton are super young and still improving, though Tebogo is dropping times more steadily. Either of these two can break Bolt's 19.19.
Fine, I’ll beat it myself.
You got this, bro.👍🥇
Imagine bro actually beats it in a few years
@@northedupkicks7110 I already am a national champion
And then you woke up😂😂
What nation? Bhutan?😂
Lyles: 19.31=10.07+9.24 19.47=10.16+9.31 19.46=10.21+9.25 19.67=10.43+9.24 19.53=10.18+9.35
Tebogo: 19.46=10.12+9.34 19.55=10.27+9.28 19.50=10.21+9.29
whered you get those splits from?
Ye lyles splits are off for his 19.31
@@NarutoJK-jh7tr How you mean
@@joshuasanimationsLooks like PJ Vazel's split analysis
Letsile’s 19.55 was 10.30 + 9.25 according to diamond league
My mom will.
Heard your m9m goes to college 😂
Muscle man over here
Tebogo is the only candidate with a real chance, especially age-based consideration. Lyles' capitulation at the Olympics was more than "Covid". It was mental. He wouldn't have run if he couldn't believe he could actually do it...and then failed.
There's multiple people currently running, who could beat it on their perfect day. Lyles, Tebogo ofc seem like the likeliest in next few years, but there's few others who have already doing 19.50ish times so can't really count them out either.
Tebogo has the best chance of the group once he improves his strength (he's still relatively slender among sprinters). His form is very impressive. Even with imroved strength though, I think Bolt's combination of body composition (ie heigjt and relatively long legs) and his incredible strength/endurance are a once in a lifetime combination.
Tebogo as the best progression
I think Erriyon still has plenty of potential
I agree with you I just think this year was messy for him with the things he was dealing with
You could see he's early season races that he was ready I feel he could've gone 19.6x for he's season best
Gout Gout from Australia so fast is parents named him twice a 16-year-old kid just ran a 20.29
No way! Joseph Fahnbulleh was born on 9/11??
My heart wants it to be Knighton.
tebogo just lacking pure speed. basically all the sprinters expect MJ have been faster than tebogo. he got the endurance for 400 also but only runs 9.86. he gotta go 9.70 level and he is beating the WR
Great presentation as usual. Nice charts and graphs.
Now, even with the juiced up track, and the juiced up shoes, none of those 4 can break the 100m or 200m. In this last olympic, the winning times for the 100m and the 200m, were slower than the times in which Bolt ran the SEMI-FINAL of most of his races.
All i Will say is progress in track is not always linear. People seem to have gout gout nailed on as the heir apparent for the world record but I would be careful about this. We’ve seen way too many young kids hyped up for running really quick times in their youth, only to never coke close to those times again. Just let people develop at their own pace. Being fast as a junior doesn’t guarantee success as a senior
This video is a Promotion for King Noah Lyles in the 200m in Tokyo 2025 World Championships.
If Tebogo continues his trend of improvement, becomes stronger (which is highly probable), stays physically and mentally healthy and stays hungry for the record, maybe not in 2 but 4 years he should be pretty close to breaking or will break the record. Does noah have potential for growth? Yes, but comprehensively, tebogo has the edge where potential is concerned. I am notaiming to disregard the other athletes but tebogo has been gaining on and arguably has or is about to surpass lyles. Either way i hope from the four that they push each other to do the best they can for the sport.
Before the end of 2025, Tebogo will likely run the first sub 43 second 400m in history
In 2017 I did some research trying to figure out the "prime" age for physical performance. Obviously it can be very subjective, but I checked all the world records in athletics, swimming and Olympic weightlifting, calculating the age of the athletes at the time of setting the world record. The median age was 24 years and 242 days.
Tebogo has never stagnated like Lyles!! Possibly Tebogo can go below 19.4 in 2025.. After that there is an opportunity to attack WR in 2026. Then Lyles is over. I think with improved strength and start that Gout Gout will be the one with the greatest potential to break Bolt's record within 5 years.
Great 4 ! It is going to be fun to watch.
trp fortune telling...? 👀
If Noah put’s the same focus and effort, that allowed him to win 100m Olympic Gold Medal, into the 200m he will break his 2022 200m American Record (AR) very soon and has the best chance to break the 200m WR first. Based on these factors:
1. Top end speed (27+ MPH)
2. Speed endurance (70m of 100m @ 26+ MPH)
3. Consistency (40 200m timings under 20s [200m King] 6 more than Bolt)
Noah’s 1st half of his AR 200m was 10.15s (slower than Bolt by 0.23) and final 100m was 9.16s (faster than Bolt by 0.11). Note: Noah’s SB 100m was 9.95s (0.2 difference of 200m 1st half).
Bolt’s 9.58s 100m 2009 WR & 19.19s 200m WR (9.92s 1st half & 9.27s 2nd half) 4 days later (0.34 difference of 200m 1st half).
Fast forward to 9.79 Noah and add 0.2 to his SB 100m then 1st half of 200m time would be 9.99. If we add 9.99 & 9.16 we get 19.15 (even if we add 9.99+9.19=19.18) NEW 200m WRs! Note: 9.99+9.2=19.19 and equals WR.
While Noah has the best chance to be first to set new 200m record it will not last long because Tebogo’s has the next best chance!
We all know Andre De Grasse is coming back for one more big race and running 19.08
Tebogo's 43.04 leg tells me he will be the one to break the record, if anyone is to break it
Tebogo will never break it because he can't stop himself from taunting at the tape. But, hey, it looks so cool.
You're sleeping on Knighton... kid has ran a 19.4x and he can't even legally buy alcohol?! That's so crazy to me.
Hey have you heard of gout gout from Australia you should look him up he's a 16 year old kid and just ran at 20.2
@matiusclicarelli700 Gout Gout is the next young up and comer just like Knighton was 4 or 5 years ago... He'll probably be the top 200m athlete to possibly break the WW next decade.
He can legally buy it in most countries. The US is not the world.
He's 20
He ran that time 3 years ago and hasn't come close to it since.
When comparing sub 20 clockings between athletes, you have to use a percentage not the absolute number because some have ran more races than others
Gout Gout has the most potential to break Usain Bolt’s 200-meter record, though he’s not ready yet. His raw talent is unmatched, and with a few more years of development, he could get there. I once thought Erriyon Knighton was the one to do it, but after last year’s slump, he hasn’t kept pace. By now, he should be on par with Tebogo, but he’s fallen behind.
WAY too early to be calling these predictions for Gout. Let's let him break 20 seconds first.
Andre De Grasse of course!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bye
Tobogo and Knighton, can still improve, they have the advantage. Knighton has more development to come on his body, if he wants it bad enough. Tobogo is a freak and I believe he will get closest to the GOAT's world record, but breaking it, 🧐
Not until someone of Bolt’s physical build or slightly bigger comes along will the record be broken. It’s the second 100 meter stride that will break it because that’s where Bolt set it.
11:12 Whilst some sources say Lyles closed his final 100m of his 19.31 in 9.16, other (often more credible) sources say he split around 9.24 for his final 100 (and went out in 10.07). I myself got this time when looking at his race however I get I can’t do it as accurately as the professional ‘split measure-ers’. 11:37 Whilst Tebogo may have closed in 9.34 in his 19.46 in the Olympics (easing at the line), he closed in 9.25 in his 19.55 run in Zurich, post-Olympics. He also ran that time after many races beforehand after Paris and on a wet track. Given ideal conditions Tebogo can probably close in 9.20 or under.
Lyles also hasn’t shown any signs of improving on his 19.31, before or since 2022. Since he put on half a kilogram of muscle between 2022 and 2023 (from what I remember, correct me if I’m wrong) his 100 times have improved slightly however his 200 times have slowed slightly. His 19.31 was when he was at his absolute best, with a hunger to win (revenge from Tokyo), a home crowd championship and good competition (19.49 Knighton and 19.7/8 Bednarek). Lyles hasn’t shown that he can run sub-19.50 whilst doubling - he failed at 2023 World Championships, 2024 Trials and 2024 Olympics (albeit with Covid). He in fact hasn’t run sub 19.50 since 2023 and that would’ve been a high 19.5 if there hadn’t been a strong tailwind (+1.6m/s tailwind in his 19.47 at the London Diamond League; I would know because I was there in person).
Tebogo on the other hand, as well as being young, is still showing good progression, despite what it looks like. His 19.50 in 2023 was the same race as Lyles’ 19.47 and had the same +1.6m/s tailwind. It was fairly windy that day, I remember. If you convert his 19.50 (+1.6m/s) to 0.0m/s wind he would’ve run 19.62. In his 19.46 run (+0.4m/s) he would’ve run 19.49 with no wind - whilst beating his chest. So he’s improved his 200m time by over a tenth of a second from last year if you use rough estimates of converting winds. If Tebogo can improve his first 100 on the bend - not his start (unlike Lyles, since Tebogo has a very good start) - from 10.12 to 10.05; totally attainable, then go from closing in 9.25 on a wet track and whilst fatigued, to 9.20 on a dry track and in good conditions then there could be the potential for a 10.05 + 9.20 for him. I get it’s extremely difficult to put the perfect race together - something Tebogo’s not done yet - but I definitely see the potential for him to do so in the not too distant future.
I don't think your analysis of Noah is accurate Noah Lyles has clearly improved between 2023 and 2024, and any claim to the contrary overlooks crucial details. In 2024, despite having a slower reaction time of 0.17 seconds compared to 0.14 seconds in 2023, he managed to run faster, finishing in 9.79 seconds versus 9.83 seconds in Budapest. This means that Lyles lost around 0.03 seconds at the start but compensated during the race itself, demonstrating that his performance on the track has improved. His mid-race splits, particularly between 50m and 70m, were faster in 2024, with 0.83 seconds for the 50-60m segment and 0.82 seconds for 60-70m, compared to 0.83 seconds for both segments in 2023. These gains highlight his ability to maximize his top-end speed better than before.
While the +1.0 m/s tailwind in 2024 could suggest favorable conditions, it does not fully account for his faster time, as his slower reaction time countered much of the wind’s potential benefit. Furthermore, Lyles’ ability to maintain his speed in the final 40 meters confirms his exceptional endurance and race execution, which are consistent with his progression as an athlete. In fact, had his reaction time in 2024 matched that of 2023, he likely would have run closer to 9.76 seconds or better. This evidence demonstrates that Noah has not stagnated but continues to improve in key aspects of his performance, including speed and endurance,
My predictions tend to be optimistic, but Tebogo is the only one I can see potentially beating Bolt's record. Any predictions are difficult, but with athletes as young as Tebogo and Knighton, trying to guess almost an entire career before them is obviously impossible. Look at how many athletes break NCAA records and look to have amazing potential, but their pro careers never amount to much. Tebogo does at least have consistency and progression on his side, as well as still being really young.
If Lyles sticks to his current goals of being the face of athletics, i.e. wanting to win 100m and 200m at global championships, I can see him lowering his 100m PB to maybe 9.75, but I doubt he will beat his 19.31, although he may be able to go sub 19.4 again.
Kenny B is an amazing athlete, who continues to improve over time, but his age and rate of progression don't put him on a good enough trigectory to challenge the record. I can still see him running low 19.4's and potentially getting a global gold in the 200m if things go his way.
Knighton running a 19.49 at 18 and still being only 20 suggests amazing potential, but after his controversy this year and a couple of seasons of not running close to 19.49, it's difficult to be over confident about what his future holds. Obviously the potential is there, but whether or not he will fulfill that potential is very much up for debate. I could easily imagine him becoming the dominant 200m runner in the future running 19.2's and possibly challening the record, but I can equally see him never beating his 19.49.
Tebogo has the most potential across all sprint distances and seems to have the most natural ability, but seems to be less focused. I would say a 400m WR is more likely for him than the shorter sprints, but I wouldn't rule anything out. At the moment his 100m is his least competitive event, but if he goes the Noah route and focuses more on his starts and drive phase, I can see that lowering his 100m and 200m PB's by over 0.1, but that still puts him a long way short of Bolt's record. That said, he's only 21, still progressing and he may not peak until his late 20's, so even Bolt's 100m record could be a potential target, but at the moment I would say low 19.3's or high 19.2's are likely to be the best he will achieve in the 200m.
Noah lyles vs Tebogo is slowly becoming an interesting rivalry.. so I wouldn't be surprised if both of them push each other over edge, then knighton comes in vs Tebogo
Tebogo ran the 9.34 while beating his chest in the last 20m and slowing down
He also ran a 9.26 last year at the London Diamond League
its essentially down to knighton upping his game more, tebogo keeping up with his improvement, lyles clutching the 200m wrbefore anyone else has a chance or maybe kenny. If its not those 4 its unlikely that anybody currently competing at the top will break it.
Lyle's has peeked in my opinion and is distracted by Media and hype. He may have more sub 20s but he's kind of stuck at a point. Tebogo is a blend of Johnson with his endurance and bolt with his sprint and graceful form. His trend is showing more rapid progress at the right time.
These four athletes are superb competitors but none of them have the special combination of stride length, power and cadence to beat Bolt's 19.19 200m record. We sometimes take Bolt's performance for granted these days but as has been said, when you look at it closely, his first half split was mind-blowing and I am skeptical any of them will get down to 19.25 let alone 19.19. The record will be beaten eventually but only by a tall fast striding runner imho- some people favor Gout Gout. If not him, it will be some tall young guy like him.
IMO, that record will remain the same for many, many years, and that shows how freaking unique Bolt is.
Fred kerley breaks the record the next time he steps on the track🤝🏽
I believe Bolt will keep his 200 m and 100 longer than anyone in history. All the unique elements that make him what he was ,is… not sure anyone running currently has it?
None of them can do it at their current level. Tebogo looks like the most likely to not have reached his peak yet. If he continues to improve he might be able to do it, but most likely he’s getting very close to his peak already.
I don't think any of those guys will go under 19.19, Tebogo could possibly break the 400 WR tho by a couple of hundredths of a second, maybe 43 seconds dead
Noah is too old and has not improved his 200 in two years. Just keep the wheel on stand by so he can be pushed off the field again the next time he loses to Tebogo
Too old? 😂
Several sprinters peaked early 30s.
No improvement?
Noah had covid when running this year’s 200m and you can clearly see how much his 100m time has progressed since setting his 19.31s 200m run.
@@Final_Act How come the covid thing only came up after the race? It's just excuses regardless, he lost.
@@Gr8IncarnateBecause he didn't want his competitors to have a mental edge over him in the 200m. That's why, that's what he said. The fact he still got the bronze medal at the Olympics and still ran sub 20 shows how world class he is talent wise and how physically fatigued his body was from getting Covid. Who knows what time he could have ran if he was healthy though 🤷🏾♂️
I think some people need to give more credit to Noah, Quincy Hall and many athletes for pulling through and getting medals even on an off day (with injuries or sickness etc).
@ Doesn’t explain how slow he ran in correlation with him being the new champion of the 100m… 💀
He is clearly improving
Why Noah nas not seemed to improve his time of 19.31 since 2022:
When he ran his 19.31 he only ran the 200m.
Recently though, he's been going for the double in the 100m and 200m. Sprint season 1 highlighted how tired noah was after running 3 rounds of the 100m and another 2 rounds of the 200m before the final.
The reason I still think he has a chance is that in his 19.31 he ran his first 100m in 10.15 seconds.
In the olympics just there he ran his first 100m with covid and 3 rounds of the 100m and 2 rounds of the 200m in 10.18 seconds... Think about what he could get without covid and only running the 200m... And we all know he can run the last 100m In low 9.2 or even 9.1s if he is really in shape.
Gout Gout is 16 years old. In 2032 he will be 23 and running in his home state of Queensland. If he progresses at anything like his current rate between now and then, he will be nearly unbeatable. 👍👍👍👍
If Lyles runs a pb in the 2025 season; showing he can combine his 100 speed and has returned to his 200 best strength, then I can see him getting close in 2026. If he hasn’t broken it by 2026, then I’m looking at Tebogo. But I have no idea what Tebogo is going to focus on, so that record may not fall if he doesn’t go for it
Wait...2009 was 15 years ago??!!! maaaan
Lyles if he focuses on 200 at the expense of 100, next season or two.
Tebogo has a good shot for sure, and it wouldn't be surprising.
Knighton is approaching both the time and age to get there. THIS is my pick.
Father Time is against Lyles, but the other two have years, and at least one more Olympic games to get there. Possibly two.
EK or LT has best chance at breaking 200m wr, if Lyles had a start like the Italian dude he could, but he is gives up too much in the drive faze at this point to overcome it with pure top end speed endurance alone. Dont really see it happening stil. But be sick to watch
Kenny has only ever broken 19.6 twice that is a very long way off the WR, so unless he can show he can do sub 19.6 more regularly he has no chance of breaking the WR
Knighton is interesting. He has one great run at 19.49 and the his next best is 19.69. He is young but first needs to show that 19.49 was not just a one off.
Tebogo has a great chance. He has 3 runs under 19.6 with 2 of those in 2024, and a best of 19.46 so he is improving. There is a good chance he will break 19.4 in 2025, maybe even 19.3. He has a definite chance of breaking the WR
Then there is Noah, Mr Consistency. He has 9 runs under 19.6 and a 10th at 19.61. He is methodical in improving and I would not be surprised that the last couple of seasons where he concentrated more on the 100m were part of a plan to improve his 200m time by getting out quicker in the first 100m. He is definitely capable of going sub 19.3. I still think he is the most likely to break the WR
it's me
I just said that to myself when I saw the notification. Im sorry to be the bearer of bad news but I’ll be the one to beat the current record not you.
@@metrik1b.257nah......
It's gonna be me.
Ya'll coudn't make it past 100m... it's me. Not sorry to end your hopes.
nah it's my goofy self
Pietro's record held really long. Pretty cool.
longest standing 200m record ever
Set at high altitude in Mexico City but a world record is a world record.
Tebogo is the future of sprinting, facing real challenges only from Kishane in 100m and Noah Lyles in 200m
If Kishane stays healthy, he’ll own the 100 in ‘25 and ‘26 … I doubt he’ll be able to put down a Bolt-beating time, but I do think he’ll relegate Lyles to second-or-worse starting next year. Lyles best 100’s are behind him.
TEBOGO!!!
Ran 19.4 Olympic finals, easing up, aged only 21.
He CAN WIN: 100, 200, 400!🥇🥇🥇
If you think about it many of the 200m world records are also/or used to run the 400m. Usain Bolt and Michael Johnson notably. So maybe Tebogo might have the biggest chance as he has run 9.86, 19.46, 30.69 and a 43.03 split. Let him rest up and hell come back next year pretty good. Tebogo I believe can go 9.8high or 9.7low and I believe he can run 19.3 or less
I really wish Lyles was healthy at this past Olympics. I think he was ready to break the record
Do not worry you are going to get the attention you expect when it comes to Letsile Tebogo. He is going to break the 200m World Record no disrespect.
Tebogo certainly will, I honestly expect him to dominate the 2025 season and break the 200m World Record, even the 400m is at risk.
A good winter can do so much at his age, Lyles also can improve. But Lyles can lose to Tebogo and Tebogo only against himself next season.
Don't matter who breaks bolts record, gout gout will break his,no doubt
This one got me thinking!
Lyles is the only one with the uncanny stamina of Michael Johnson.
But stats don't lie, I don't see him top his near perfect 19.31.
The difference was that GOD-LIKE opening 9.92 by bolt which IS THE ONLY sub 10 1st 100 clocking ever!
Lyles can't top that!
The closest we ever saw someone in this 4 do something like that was when Knighton ran that bend for that 19.49
The answer is actually out there!
The only one who really does not know how fast he can run is Tebogo!
We are yet to see his best.
Tebogo is most likely to break 19.19.......
But that 9.58!!......
Like Bolt said, he hasn't yet been seen.
If I had to pick one of these it would have to be Tebogo. Although to be honest I think the record will still be missed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a sub 19.3 though.
Stop using false split times
The real problem with breaking Bolt's record is not talent, it is the absence of the record breaker in the races. When Bolt broke his first record in the 100m, he was running against Asafa Powell, someone who held the record, meaning someone who could run at world record time. So to beat such a person, you have to break the record. The benefit after breaking the record is that you only have yourself to run against. When Bolt set 19.19 in 200m, he was the record holder, that way he was the one to beat, he had ability to run at world record time, so to break it, he just had to train better than before. If you are the record holder and you train harder, you become better and faster than the record holder, which means you keep breaking the records, moreover you know exactly how the record was broken, so you know what to improve. This is why we see Sydney McLaughlin breaking her own record over and over.
The current crop of people do not have anyone who can run at the current world record on a normal day, so no matter how competitive they become, simply inching closer to the record beats everyone. Lyles probably does not have anymore 19.3x left in him, so he cant push Tebogo towards the 19.20s. The only true hope is if Knighton recovers and is able to run at least 19.25 in the same field as someone like Tebogo. In short, Tebogo can break the record, but we need someone who can run very close to the record itself. Competition is the problem, not speed, notice how Lyles and the Jamaican guy been hiding. Maybe not hiding, but their absence lowered the level of competition. Bolt's record will be broken the moment any two people can compete at < 19:30.
The time Tebogo runs his 30th 200m race under 20 seconds, the world record will be gone as he had it obliterated
In my opinion, Tobogo is the favourite to get as close to Bolt's record idk about breaking it.
On a serious note, if this war, was to star,t I know on hearing the first bomb, everyone will run under Bolt's record
To me Yohann Blake is the real 200m king. I know it's somewhat cope but if you ignore reaction times he ran the actual distance faster.
It’s me. I’ll break the record . Remember the initials W.A
Good luck bro
@ thx 🙏🏽 I’ll give you a random shoutout if it actually happens lol
His name is Gout Gout and he’s from my home city 🙏🏾
I'm wondering if more science could be brought to bear on these speculations. What kinds of real world measurements are made in addition to the training regimen to estimate peak performance on any given day?
100m WR 9.58 200m WR 19.19
Fast is 9.58 for 100m fast is 19.19 200m
So for the 100m 10s+9.58s=19.58/2=9.79 any thing under 9.79s
So for the 200m 20s+19.19=39.19/2=19.59 any thing under 19.59s
Haha. You guys have no idea! No athlete will touch those record. Bolt is in another universe!
Someone from Jamaica like Kishane will break it. . Bolt and Blake as Jamaicans hold the top two fastest 100m records. Insane how fast Jamaicans are. Donald Quarie was also another jamaican. Quarie was the first to break world records
Only two possibilities:
- Noah Lyles beats WR but Tebogo or Knighton take him down
- The person who will beat Usain Bolt's WR is not yet born
I believe in Noah Lyles. He will give it all to break Bolt's 200m world record. If this will ever happen, it will happen within the next two years.
Tyson gay has ran 9.98 on the bend en route to his 19.58 PR in New York 2009.
13 minutes that could have been 4 minutes. Clearly it's Tebogo right now, Knighton after him and later on Gout Gout that has the most realistic chance.