This is a really simple to understand trade with some clear logic behind it. One thing I couldn't put on the video was the comments by the summarise and the trainer that added weight to this. Also, from a trading perspective, you can 'see' this in the market. It's about the most straightforward example I can give you.
Another useful video Peter, your knowledge is invaluable to a beginner like me. Thank you for taking the time to share it with us. One question if I may, over what time period did this odds movement occur, is it over the course of the day or in the last 5-10 mins?
Hi Charlie, thanks for your comment. This sort of trade would occur over the course of the day. You would basically look at the card if you see the weather forecast is showing changing conditions. The more that is the case, the stronger the move. You probably would want to be about by the last ten minutes. At that point order flow trading is key.
I know you use TPD and have done for a while. As such, please consider a video on just how useful, or otherwise , you have found it in respect of your trading. Also, any plans for a Q&A like you used to do occasionally on a |Saturday evening, not done one for a while.
It's completely changed what I do in-play. I will produce some more videos on it over time. During the winter I should have some time for Q&A's as the trading day starts to shift their times.
Cricket is another sport where an accurate weather forecast can help you make money. If a couple of days' rain is forecast a few days ahead of a five day test match, the odds of the draw will come in. If the weather forecast suddenly improves, the odds of the draw will drift. You don't need to know anything about the game itself.
Thank you Pete, I'd love to see some live trading sessions you make, have you thought about making this? We all your followers would love to learn from you by this.
I've done many videos where I trade live and narrate what I'm doing. On these I can use post-production to highlight key points and I think this works well.
Sorry Peter, I see your point here but I don't agree that the second horse 'clearly' doesn't like soft going. What tells you that? It has run well on good and good to firm but the only race where it ran on softer (yielding to soft to be precise) - it also won by 3.5 lengths? There is nothing in it's form that tells you it's not going to like soft ground. Or are you extrapolating from the fact it's mainly run on better ground that the trainer has deliberately placed it on that ground as it doesn't like soft? Because nothing in it's form tells you soft isn't going to be suitable for it. Also it's easy to say in retrospect that people will back the favourite because it has soft ground form, but countless times I've seen horses seemingly perfectly suited to the going drift like barges. And horses that had no form on the ground come in for big gambles. I fear on this occasion it worked out, but it's sort of reverse engineering the trade. Many times this just won't work out. I do accept maybe you saw something else here and you're playing on other intuition you've developed or maybe you were using it in conjunction with other confirmation signals/order flow and you're the expert but in my humble opinion and experience going on this factor alone will only work sometimes and lose you money other times.
There are other factors here that I couldn't put in the video. The summarisers agreed with this interpretation, but more importantly, so did Aiden O'Brien. Unfortunately, I can't include the interview in this video. But I did archive it.
I agree there has to be cast iron evidence it won't go on the ground. One painful one that sticks in my memory was Cinders and Ashes for the Supreme a while back. It had won 3/3 going into the race, all on heavy ground. Cheltenham opened on proper good quick ground that year and I swerved it. The point is, it had won on heavy, not because it needed it, but because it had the class to cope with it.
Thought provoking as ever. Picking up on the weather point, have you (or can you) make a video about trading the weather for cricket? On a test match, it can radically change the price on a draw, on the 50s and 20s it can wipe out your trading profit unless you hedge on the Completed Match Y/N market. It is surprising how late this comes into play with volume. Does nobody bother looking at probabilities on this in advance or are they only hedging and wait to see what they need to cover? The number of rained off matches has been very frustrating this year and trading the weather forecast has been more fun and nearly as profitable as the matches themselves.
Be exceedingly careful on Betfair you are trading against people like Peter. Nothing is what it might easily seem. Premium traders rely on less sophisticated market entrants in order to make their profits. Unless you have high end technology, people on course, a substantial amount of free time, patience and resource don’t even think about Betfair as a place to trade long term. You will almost certainly be better off spending your time (from a financial return perspective) on almost any other activity. Outliers like Peter are very very rare.
You realise you posted this on a video that requires none of the above? Positive people find opportunities, negative people problems. It took me a while to realise that, but it's the most valuable thing I've ever learned.
The gist is ok , however , these horses have only ran 3 or 4 times. Ideal going conditions have not been established yet. Maybe the horses have only been exposed to that type of going so far and would actually prefer the opposite. What about breeding too ? Many older handicappers have won on heavy , soft , good and firm if you check the formbook.
When you say that the horse does or doesnt like running on a certain ground do you mean looking at the amount of times they have run on a certain ground so the trainer believes that ground better suites the horse or are you looking at how many time they have won on a certain type of ground?
Hello, I learn every day with your videos. A 'silly question' if I make a Lay on 3 and a Stop Loss (Back) on 2, even if the odds do not go down in pre-match (for example horses), can another bettor cover my Stop Loss from the straight for example? Before the game, would it have already closed at a loss? o Does the quota have to reach that value to just take it? But how should I put the Stop Loss? Thank you very much greetings from Argentina
Hi Gustavo, Stop losses would get cancelled at the start of match. So before a match it would be unusual to see it getting triggered by somebody. Stop losses are useful, but when you enter a trade you should generally know where you will get in and out of a position and that is where you should set a stop. Rather than close to your entry or it will get triggered too often.
@@betangeltv Thanks for taking the time to respond. I am going to implement it through the BetAngel ladder and the teachings of your videos that allow me to find entry points and exit points. Eternally grateful, I'm going to write telling you my progress. Thank you so much !!🤩🤩
It's a personal preference really. I like racing as it's so frequently and everything averages out really quickly, but some people hate it. Bear in mind the football season is about to end!
I'm more interested in horses like Masakela, who was top price 10/1 in the morning and tipped by pricewise, yet drifted to a high of around 33/1 on betfair pre race. Admittedly it had no recent winning form, but Derby 4th running in first handicap, tipped by pricewise and trebles/quadruples in price.🤭
10:07 When was the last 10mins? At what point could you have got in before it went too far? Ideally 3.25 entry but if it was 2.75 at 20mins to go would you be looking for a bounce?
The move started in the morning of the race. You should have been out by 10/15 minutes before the start. A different sort of trade to that which you would do with order flow.
Easy trade the other day, Ryan moore already had 3 winners in Ireland going into the last race he was on a fancied runner, obviously doubles,trebles and yankees running onto it, its price compressed, by the bookies he just lost but it didn't matter, I had already traded it back to lay soon after the third win. Easy sometimes.
Also this would have to be a big market that was open for a longer period to give time for the market to swing once the weather had took hold. Also would you look at races just where they have had up to 10 runs and a clear rather than horses that have run in hcps over multiple different goings with different results. What Im asking is which races is it easier to find this type of trade?
@bet angel, Hi Peter, i've been a betangle subscriber for a few years. Always tinkering my stratergies with low stakes just for fun really. TBH at the moment im just adding liquidity to betfair. Question is.. would you every consider offering a contract where i do some leg work, using a stratergy provided by you, but i share half the profits?
Bet Angel is too complex to make into a simple app and Apple and Android stores won't let us charge for any app. So other than that, it's a great idea!
It goes up and down, dependent on the sports cycle. But over the last twenty years, I've made millions. Never underestimate the difference between somebody that does this seriously for a living and somebody that pretends to do it. It's a serious job for me, and I'll stretch to do the best I can. Which means I work all hours to do it. There's even a video of me trading at 4am in the morning!
@@betangeltv that doesn't include software sales lol. Very nice. I was betting when bet angel first came out, probably trialled it but think I ended up sticking with bet IE or whatever it was called. Then got out of it all completely and made a living from poker for 15yrs, which I'm now completely sick of so I may give it another look. It's made to look and sound so easy and if that's so then why doesn't everyone do it? There must be room for complete failure. Do u need to be a maths genius? cuz I'm totally numberlexic. Maths isn't needed to beat poker whatsoever.
It's funny, as I often feel like I should have done something in Poker. As if I'd had the same success there as I have in sports; I would have been on the cover of a magazine somewhere. As it is, I think sports betting is still tarred with the wrong brush. I really don't think people have generally understood it's full potential and it's still blighted with this tipping culture, despite the fact it's all moved on so much from there.
I think that was 10-15 years ago when there were genuine opportunities, I'm fairly certain now that most of your money comes from selling the trading methods that are unlikely to work long term & you already made your money many years ago.Nice guy Peter, I love your professionalism and britishness! but remember peoples lives are destroyed by gambling@@betangeltv
@Bold_and_not_bankrupt I realise you have had a negative experience with trading, but don't stop other people from trying with these sorts of commnents. Plenty of people have done very well, if just for the fact that using an exchange is a much better alternative to tradtional betting. For the record, I made more in the second decade than the first. So your assumption is completely and utterly wrong. I'm not doing this to sell software, I just can't believe people are still handing over money to sportsbooks when something much better is available. It's just insane.
how about specific points what to look at him? instead of talking souch. a b c d e speciffic points we must look at , all you said weather soft and dry land is it really this the only thing to look at? Comon
When I produced this video, I did so with people like you in mind, given your constant rants on my channel. I actually had you in the back of my mind. What can I produce that is really clear and concise and accurately show all the steps I used to do a trade. I had a side bet that even if I put up something really simple to understand, you would still appear and find fault with it. If you don't get this, you need to stop trying to trade. Either that or you are deliberately trying to wind me up. Whichever one it is, you should stop doing both.
This is a really simple to understand trade with some clear logic behind it. One thing I couldn't put on the video was the comments by the summarise and the trainer that added weight to this. Also, from a trading perspective, you can 'see' this in the market. It's about the most straightforward example I can give you.
love these kinds of videos, and yes we all appreciate your weather tweets on the big days!
Thanks 😀
Another useful video Peter, your knowledge is invaluable to a beginner like me. Thank you for taking the time to share it with us. One question if I may, over what time period did this odds movement occur, is it over the course of the day or in the last 5-10 mins?
Hi Charlie, thanks for your comment.
This sort of trade would occur over the course of the day. You would basically look at the card if you see the weather forecast is showing changing conditions.
The more that is the case, the stronger the move.
You probably would want to be about by the last ten minutes. At that point order flow trading is key.
Peter, yoiu have really loud birds in our garden! 🙂 Very informatibve video as pwr usual..Thanks
Thanks
I know you use TPD and have done for a while. As such, please consider a video on just how useful, or otherwise , you have found it in respect of your trading.
Also, any plans for a Q&A like you used to do occasionally on a |Saturday evening, not done one for a while.
It's completely changed what I do in-play. I will produce some more videos on it over time.
During the winter I should have some time for Q&A's as the trading day starts to shift their times.
Cricket is another sport where an accurate weather forecast can help you make money. If a couple of days' rain is forecast a few days ahead of a five day test match, the odds of the draw will come in. If the weather forecast suddenly improves, the odds of the draw will drift. You don't need to know anything about the game itself.
You're welcome
Thank you Pete, I'd love to see some live trading sessions you make, have you thought about making this? We all your followers would love to learn from you by this.
I've done many videos where I trade live and narrate what I'm doing.
On these I can use post-production to highlight key points and I think this works well.
Sorry Peter, I see your point here but I don't agree that the second horse 'clearly' doesn't like soft going. What tells you that? It has run well on good and good to firm but the only race where it ran on softer (yielding to soft to be precise) - it also won by 3.5 lengths? There is nothing in it's form that tells you it's not going to like soft ground. Or are you extrapolating from the fact it's mainly run on better ground that the trainer has deliberately placed it on that ground as it doesn't like soft? Because nothing in it's form tells you soft isn't going to be suitable for it. Also it's easy to say in retrospect that people will back the favourite because it has soft ground form, but countless times I've seen horses seemingly perfectly suited to the going drift like barges. And horses that had no form on the ground come in for big gambles. I fear on this occasion it worked out, but it's sort of reverse engineering the trade. Many times this just won't work out. I do accept maybe you saw something else here and you're playing on other intuition you've developed or maybe you were using it in conjunction with other confirmation signals/order flow and you're the expert but in my humble opinion and experience going on this factor alone will only work sometimes and lose you money other times.
There are other factors here that I couldn't put in the video. The summarisers agreed with this interpretation, but more importantly, so did Aiden O'Brien.
Unfortunately, I can't include the interview in this video. But I did archive it.
I agree there has to be cast iron evidence it won't go on the ground. One painful one that sticks in my memory was Cinders and Ashes for the Supreme a while back. It had won 3/3 going into the race, all on heavy ground. Cheltenham opened on proper good quick ground that year and I swerved it. The point is, it had won on heavy, not because it needed it, but because it had the class to cope with it.
I agree. Horses drift for no apparent reason and when they do, usually lose. When you're an expert at something, of course it's easy to make money.
Seems like you're all looking at this from a betting outcome perspective and not a market psychology trading opportunity
@Ben Fleck What a stupid comment to put on such a video, did you even watch it?
Thought provoking as ever. Picking up on the weather point, have you (or can you) make a video about trading the weather for cricket? On a test match, it can radically change the price on a draw, on the 50s and 20s it can wipe out your trading profit unless you hedge on the Completed Match Y/N market. It is surprising how late this comes into play with volume. Does nobody bother looking at probabilities on this in advance or are they only hedging and wait to see what they need to cover? The number of rained off matches has been very frustrating this year and trading the weather forecast has been more fun and nearly as profitable as the matches themselves.
A lot of people spend time looking at the weather on Cricket and other sports. It can produce some good trading angles.
Be exceedingly careful on Betfair you are trading against people like Peter. Nothing is what it might easily seem. Premium traders rely on less sophisticated market entrants in order to make their profits. Unless you have high end technology, people on course, a substantial amount of free time, patience and resource don’t even think about Betfair as a place to trade long term. You will almost certainly be better off spending your time (from a financial return perspective) on almost any other activity. Outliers like Peter are very very rare.
You realise you posted this on a video that requires none of the above?
Positive people find opportunities, negative people problems.
It took me a while to realise that, but it's the most valuable thing I've ever learned.
Hi Peter - if I have a winning lay strategy and have 60k … shall I just lay to lose 2k each game ?
I’ve watched racing for 15 years and have good knowledge esp jumps. I’m trying to work out how to use this too my advantage this helps a little
That sounds like a good place to start. Just be careful to not let your racing knowledge overrule your trading.
@@betangeltv I’m finding that the difficult bit at the moment.
The gist is ok , however , these horses have only ran 3 or 4 times. Ideal going conditions have not been established yet. Maybe the horses have only been exposed to that type of going so far and would actually prefer the opposite. What about breeding too ? Many older handicappers have won on heavy , soft , good and firm if you check the formbook.
I realise it wasn't the perfect example, but even the trainer came out with a ground preference. So it was, excuse the pun, a much firmer trade.
@@betangeltv Haha , very good.
Love yhe birds singing in the background
When you say that the horse does or doesnt like running on a certain ground do you mean looking at the amount of times they have run on a certain ground so the trainer believes that ground better suites the horse or are you looking at how many time they have won on a certain type of ground?
Horses have won on the ground previously, or lost on unsuitable ground.
Hello, I learn every day with your videos. A 'silly question' if I make a Lay on 3 and a Stop Loss (Back) on 2, even if the odds do not go down in pre-match (for example horses), can another bettor cover my Stop Loss from the straight for example? Before the game, would it have already closed at a loss? o Does the quota have to reach that value to just take it? But how should I put the Stop Loss? Thank you very much greetings from Argentina
Hi Gustavo, Stop losses would get cancelled at the start of match. So before a match it would be unusual to see it getting triggered by somebody.
Stop losses are useful, but when you enter a trade you should generally know where you will get in and out of a position and that is where you should set a stop. Rather than close to your entry or it will get triggered too often.
@@betangeltv Thanks for taking the time to respond. I am going to implement it through the BetAngel ladder and the teachings of your videos that allow me to find entry points and exit points. Eternally grateful, I'm going to write telling you my progress. Thank you so much !!🤩🤩
I will be taking up Bet Angel but my question is, which would it be better to get started with football or racing.
It's a personal preference really. I like racing as it's so frequently and everything averages out really quickly, but some people hate it.
Bear in mind the football season is about to end!
True, I only stick to the higher liquidity stuff now. Due to the size of market.
I'm more interested in horses like Masakela, who was top price 10/1 in the morning and tipped by pricewise, yet drifted to a high of around 33/1 on betfair pre race. Admittedly it had no recent winning form, but Derby 4th running in first handicap, tipped by pricewise and trebles/quadruples in price.🤭
I guess they knew it was outclassed.
Good video, thanks.
Glad you liked it!
10:07 When was the last 10mins? At what point could you have got in before it went too far? Ideally 3.25 entry but if it was 2.75 at 20mins to go would you be looking for a bounce?
The move started in the morning of the race. You should have been out by 10/15 minutes before the start.
A different sort of trade to that which you would do with order flow.
Easy trade the other day, Ryan moore already had 3 winners in Ireland going into the last race he was on a fancied runner, obviously doubles,trebles and yankees running onto it, its price compressed, by the bookies he just lost but it didn't matter, I had already traded it back to lay soon after the third win. Easy sometimes.
There are lots around if you keep an eye on results.
Also this would have to be a big market that was open for a longer period to give time for the market to swing once the weather had took hold. Also would you look at races just where they have had up to 10 runs and a clear rather than horses that have run in hcps over multiple different goings with different results. What Im asking is which races is it easier to find this type of trade?
Smaller races would also work, but the most important thing is having some good quality form to look at.
@bet angel, Hi Peter, i've been a betangle subscriber for a few years. Always tinkering my stratergies with low stakes just for fun really. TBH at the moment im just adding liquidity to betfair. Question is.. would you every consider offering a contract where i do some leg work, using a stratergy provided by you, but i share half the profits?
😂😂
One of the better jokes I've read recently! Made me laugh. Well done sir, well done.
@@doriukstis😂😂 Exactly! Like wth? 🤦🏻♂️😂
Thx Peter
👍
Can this only be done on Betfair, or will it work on any exchange
Will work on any exchange
Hi Peter any news on making a bet angel app for Android?
Bet Angel is too complex to make into a simple app and Apple and Android stores won't let us charge for any app. So other than that, it's a great idea!
How about u tell us what literally no trader/pro bettor I’ve ever seen in 20yrs internet has ever told; what do u make a year?
It goes up and down, dependent on the sports cycle. But over the last twenty years, I've made millions.
Never underestimate the difference between somebody that does this seriously for a living and somebody that pretends to do it.
It's a serious job for me, and I'll stretch to do the best I can. Which means I work all hours to do it. There's even a video of me trading at 4am in the morning!
@@betangeltv that doesn't include software sales lol. Very nice. I was betting when bet angel first came out, probably trialled it but think I ended up sticking with bet IE or whatever it was called. Then got out of it all completely and made a living from poker for 15yrs, which I'm now completely sick of so I may give it another look. It's made to look and sound so easy and if that's so then why doesn't everyone do it? There must be room for complete failure. Do u need to be a maths genius? cuz I'm totally numberlexic. Maths isn't needed to beat poker whatsoever.
It's funny, as I often feel like I should have done something in Poker. As if I'd had the same success there as I have in sports; I would have been on the cover of a magazine somewhere.
As it is, I think sports betting is still tarred with the wrong brush. I really don't think people have generally understood it's full potential and it's still blighted with this tipping culture, despite the fact it's all moved on so much from there.
I think that was 10-15 years ago when there were genuine opportunities, I'm fairly certain now that most of your money comes from selling the trading methods that are unlikely to work long term & you already made your money many years ago.Nice guy Peter, I love your professionalism and britishness! but remember peoples lives are destroyed by gambling@@betangeltv
@Bold_and_not_bankrupt I realise you have had a negative experience with trading, but don't stop other people from trying with these sorts of commnents. Plenty of people have done very well, if just for the fact that using an exchange is a much better alternative to tradtional betting.
For the record, I made more in the second decade than the first. So your assumption is completely and utterly wrong. I'm not doing this to sell software, I just can't believe people are still handing over money to sportsbooks when something much better is available. It's just insane.
I thought you were going to show us your ladders from the actual race. Bit dissapointed.
This is one trade where you don't need any ladders or complex elements of trading.
Great video, shame about the comments 😂
It does beggar belief sometimes. Well actually, most of the time!
Hello Peter
The pc always restarting
Can you help me please?
Do you mean Bet Angel is crashing, or just your PC?
🤣🤣🤣
What's your twitter handle?
@betangel
@Bet Angel , thanks I should have guessed that. Thought it might have been your name.
how about specific points what to look at him? instead of talking souch. a b c d e speciffic points we must look at , all you said weather soft and dry land is it really this the only thing to look at? Comon
When I produced this video, I did so with people like you in mind, given your constant rants on my channel. I actually had you in the back of my mind.
What can I produce that is really clear and concise and accurately show all the steps I used to do a trade.
I had a side bet that even if I put up something really simple to understand, you would still appear and find fault with it.
If you don't get this, you need to stop trying to trade. Either that or you are deliberately trying to wind me up.
Whichever one it is, you should stop doing both.