1. I live in Josh Gottheimer's district. There is absolutely NO WAY Oz could beat him. Most people in his district live in northern Bergen County, which is full of college educated suburbanites who find Oz to be abhorrent. If he can't appeal to suburban Pennsylvania in what was supposed to be a red wave, he has no chance of getting any meaningful support in suburban New Jersey. It wouldn't even be close at the end. Gottheimer would win by double digits. 2. Bob Casey will easily beat David McCormick. It won't be nearly as close as you say because McCormick is a very weak candidate who will have many of the same pitfalls as Oz did, including his residency (he moved to Connecticut). Plus Casey is a pretty uncontroversial moderate who has far greater appeal to suburban voters. I say Casey beats McCormick by 8-10. 3. I agree that Brown and Manchin will lose reelection. However, Rosendale wouldn't be able to defeat Tester in Montana. He already lost in 2018 and his controversies (including selling junk insurance plans) wouldn't just disappear. Also, there's absolutely no way an extremist election denier like Biggs will win in Arizona. Sinema will peal off all the moderates who don't like either party while Gallego will win the rest of the independent voters who always have support McCain Republicans. 4. Having Trump on the ballot won't have the same positive effect for Republicans like it did in 2020. He's FAR more unpopular with moderate Republicans and independents and the millions of voters who begrudgingly voted for him I 2020 will either vote for Biden or just sit out. Plus, college students (a very liberal voting bloc) were mostly forced to vote from home in 2020 where their conservative parents forced them to vote Republican. In 2024, they will be voting from campus which means there will be far more Democratic support. 5. Dovetailing off of 4, Trump would sink a lot of Republican candidates in close races. I already mentioned Rosendale in Montana, but there are a lot of others who would lose also. Whoever is running against Rosen in Nevada would be torpedoed by Trump as well. In Colorado, Boebert will go down in flames. Actually I think she will lose no matter what because of how blue Colorado is becoming. People are sick of her and she would have lost in 2022 if more people voted. 6. Finally, Trump has no chance of flipping any states. Wisconsin will stay blue because of the WOW counties shifting hard to the left. Nevada won't flip red after voting against him twice. On the other hand, Biden would be likely to win North Carolina and ME-2 as well. Texas could even flip if the suburbs shift hard enough to the left.
You are so right, Politic Predictor is overestimating the GOP so heavily. I could see Nevada or Wisconsin flipping in upcoming elections without Trump, they have already rejected him! Also Biggs is not going to beat Gallego, Arizona has already proven it doesn’t like extreme candidates, Trump or Kari Lake.
Not in Gottheimer's district LMFAO. Most of the voters in Gottheimer's district are wealthier college educated people in northern Bergen County. I should know because I live there.
For me, Wisconsin is now the bellweather state. I don t buy a scenario where the winner of the election losing that state. And I don t buy a scenario where Biden is reelected without winning a majority in the house for the democrats. But great videos though...
Also what were you margins for OH and IA. Which democrat do you think could flip those statesn on a national level? Josh Shapiro or Sherroid Brown. Maybe Joe Manchin
WI Trump could win it by 0.1% in PA Biden could win it by 3 points or less than that also in MI Biden could win it by 1 Point now in NV and GA Biden wins GA it will be close but Biden will win it by 0.5% maybe or less then that now in NV trump or Biden could win it but I think Trump wins it by 0.5% or less than that now in AZ Biden wins it by 2 Points or less than that
@@stevenplayzzz172 - I don’t think so.If Nevada didn’t flip in 2022 under a R+3 environment. It won’t flip when Democrats are up by 2,3,4. Republicans haven’t won the popular vote in a presidential in decades and it won’t change in 2024
1. I live in Josh Gottheimer's district. There is absolutely NO WAY Oz could beat him. Most people in his district live in northern Bergen County, which is full of college educated suburbanites who find Oz to be abhorrent. If he can't appeal to suburban Pennsylvania in what was supposed to be a red wave, he has no chance of getting any meaningful support in suburban New Jersey. It wouldn't even be close at the end. Gottheimer would win by double digits.
2. Bob Casey will easily beat David McCormick. It won't be nearly as close as you say because McCormick is a very weak candidate who will have many of the same pitfalls as Oz did, including his residency (he moved to Connecticut). Plus Casey is a pretty uncontroversial moderate who has far greater appeal to suburban voters. I say Casey beats McCormick by 8-10.
3. I agree that Brown and Manchin will lose reelection. However, Rosendale wouldn't be able to defeat Tester in Montana. He already lost in 2018 and his controversies (including selling junk insurance plans) wouldn't just disappear. Also, there's absolutely no way an extremist election denier like Biggs will win in Arizona. Sinema will peal off all the moderates who don't like either party while Gallego will win the rest of the independent voters who always have support McCain Republicans.
4. Having Trump on the ballot won't have the same positive effect for Republicans like it did in 2020. He's FAR more unpopular with moderate Republicans and independents and the millions of voters who begrudgingly voted for him I 2020 will either vote for Biden or just sit out. Plus, college students (a very liberal voting bloc) were mostly forced to vote from home in 2020 where their conservative parents forced them to vote Republican. In 2024, they will be voting from campus which means there will be far more Democratic support.
5. Dovetailing off of 4, Trump would sink a lot of Republican candidates in close races. I already mentioned Rosendale in Montana, but there are a lot of others who would lose also. Whoever is running against Rosen in Nevada would be torpedoed by Trump as well. In Colorado, Boebert will go down in flames. Actually I think she will lose no matter what because of how blue Colorado is becoming. People are sick of her and she would have lost in 2022 if more people voted.
6. Finally, Trump has no chance of flipping any states. Wisconsin will stay blue because of the WOW counties shifting hard to the left. Nevada won't flip red after voting against him twice. On the other hand, Biden would be likely to win North Carolina and ME-2 as well. Texas could even flip if the suburbs shift hard enough to the left.
Good points
@@politicpredictor9593 ?
@@williamg8269 I don’t think Oz will run I was just trying to be funny
@@politicpredictor9593 He wouldn't win if he did run.
You are so right, Politic Predictor is overestimating the GOP so heavily. I could see Nevada or Wisconsin flipping in upcoming elections without Trump, they have already rejected him! Also Biggs is not going to beat Gallego, Arizona has already proven it doesn’t like extreme candidates, Trump or Kari Lake.
I agree. There is a real pick up opportunity for Dr Oz in the House much more than in the senate. He should definitely run
Not in Gottheimer's district LMFAO. Most of the voters in Gottheimer's district are wealthier college educated people in northern Bergen County. I should know because I live there.
I strong respectful disagree with the house
Respectfully disagree
For me, Wisconsin is now the bellweather state. I don t buy a scenario where the winner of the election losing that state.
And I don t buy a scenario where Biden is reelected without winning a majority in the house for the democrats.
But great videos though...
Arizona will vote to the left of Wisconsin
@@juanrestrepo1017 I agree, but I think Wisconsin will remain the tipping state.
PA is more likely
overall pretty good, some of these margins i heavily disagree with but other than that.
Thank you!
I think Hung Cao will run against Kaine and Youngkin will run against Warner in 2026
Nice Video!!!
Thank you!
How does NY-3 not flip?
thank You for putting NV for trump
I completely disagree with everything except the president race but flip Nevada and Wisconsin
I am a teacher and one of my students is doing a project on election nights. He was wondering how you make your videos? Thanks.
My exact prediction. Some of these margins are pretty bad though. But I do agree WI, and NV will flip to Trump in 2024.
What’s your margins in WI and NV?
@@politicpredictor9593 If Trump does win WI it will be by 10,000 votes or less.
@@politicpredictor9593 0.5% or less
No way Nevada flips. It didn’t in 2022, much less so in a presidential year
@@juanrestrepo1017 It did in the Governos race. I am not saying it's going to but I don't think it's impossible.
Why did you say WI and NV would flip. Is it due to trends
Yes
If Donald Trump is the nominee, Perry Johnson was elected, Trump was selected
Jeb was elected
Let's hope not.
I can see Pennsylvania going red in 2024
Not with Trump or DeSantis
😊
I’m sorry but Andy Biggs? Would not beat gallego at all
Imagine what 2026 midterm be
Thom Tillis and Susan Collins lose reelection.
@@williamg8269 That's if Collins isn't already a Democrat by 26'
Why was every race that wasn't supposed to be close, almost 50.1%?
And I highly disagree with your predictions, but good graphics.
13:01 DR OZ IN NEW JERSEY!!!!! 🤣🤣🤣 Best moment of the night 100%
Lol
I’M DEAD- HELP! 💀💀💀😭😭😭💀💀💀💀
@@uspc.politics death by Mehmentum
If we're here to vote in 2024 , specially with North Korea , one day at a time I don't know what's going to happen.
Also what were you margins for OH and IA. Which democrat do you think could flip those statesn on a national level? Josh Shapiro or Sherroid Brown. Maybe Joe Manchin
Shapiro definitely could.
@@williamg8269 for sure. I think we would also win lots of obama-trump voters as well
What are your margins for PA NV MI GA AZ WI
WI Trump could win it by 0.1% in PA Biden could win it by 3 points or less than that also in MI Biden could win it by 1 Point now in NV and GA Biden wins GA it will be close but Biden will win it by 0.5% maybe or less then that now in NV trump or Biden could win it but I think Trump wins it by 0.5% or less than that now in AZ Biden wins it by 2 Points or less than that
So Michigan - 1 point victory in Biden
It will be close
But he could win it by 3
Do you think Biden voters would vote for trump in 2024 in Nevada?
Are you talking about in The Republican Caucuses or in The general election?
Yes I mean in the 2024 election. Was is your reasons for WI and NV flipping from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024
@@duaneowens7777 Trends
@@politicpredictor9593 - You keep mixing up Midterms with Presidential Elections. No way Biden loses Nevada in 2024
@@juanrestrepo1017 he only won narrowly in 2020, Trump improved on 2016
BULL. Wi & NV not flipping. Dr Oz won't be elected to anything either. This is out of touch.
Stay mad
@@stevenplayzzz172 - No need to. The one crying wolf about a stolen election is trump 😂
@@juanrestrepo1017 Wi and NV will
Flip but Yea Oz isn’t running
@@stevenplayzzz172 - I don’t think so.If Nevada didn’t flip in 2022 under a R+3 environment. It won’t flip when Democrats are up by 2,3,4. Republicans haven’t won the popular vote in a presidential in decades and it won’t change in 2024