@@MetroManhattanOfficeSpace Believe it or not sir , I am from a small Balkan country called Macedonia , in east Europe, i have no plans on visiting or buying property in the US ,But the sheer honestly i witnessed in the Rossmann videos surprised me . After further research i found the things you are saying in most of the videos quite interesting ,its fun to see / understand the mind of a broker / seller . Just wanted to let u know , u got people watching you from further than u might realize !
@@MetroManhattanOfficeSpace I live in Brazil, but also Europe. No plan to ever step in the US, but I find both you and your videos interesting. Same for Louis Rossmann's content. Your integrity brought me here and kept me here. Your insight is always very interesting.
@@MetroManhattanOfficeSpace I'm located Bangalore, in the other side of the world haha.. The whole city is locked down here too.. But people can see rare birds, peacocks and even deers in the outskirts of the city. It's crazy
Regarding the actual content, now that I've finished watching; here in the Netherlands there was a heavy uptick in mortgage applications in the past month. I think a lot of people are realizing the econony is going to undergo a strong decline in the time to come, and want to profit from the low interest rates while they still can. These are interesting times, not just on the short term but on the long term as well. Like you said, I also believe in the long term effects. Working from home is finding accellerated acceptance now. A government body here announced today (or yesterday) that the effects of the coronavirus and the lockdown on commute traffic might be noticable until 2025, based on economic and social impact. I believe the shape of our future is being changed drastically at this moment.
Thanks again for an informative video! I'm in Australia and reading NY Times and the article on the crash of department stores. Will be interesting to see who survives.
I have a question. The people who can afford to keep paying their lease through this are going to find they're now paying maybe double market value for the next 10 years of their lease term. What options are available for those people? What does it cost to get out of a lease agreement and could that be cheaper in the long run.
hmm i don't think you are going to pay double the market value. I think inflation will cancel it out. Banks are pumping lots of money into the economy, which will devalue the USD.
Very solid take on the future market. Teleworking is the future. Some workers may miss the office, but no one will miss the commute. The time, the stress, the smells and dangers of getting to work will be a thing of the past. Companies will love the savings of a smaller office space on their balance sheet or no office at all. Strike 2 for Manhattan is the current local political situation that led to the riots and is leading to a steep decline in the quality of life with increasing crime ,a revolving door with the no bail reform, closing Rikers & defunding NYPD. We can only hope for a positive change at the mayoral level in the next election.
Personally, I am not sure that staff will be as productive working outside the office and that people (being social) will not ultimately want to return to their offices once the health situation is under control. I am more concerned by the political situation and the crippling of the NYPD, which in my opinion is sheer madness. Reduced crime rates in NYC in the last 20 years contributed to economic progress. Putting that in reverse risks everything.
Work was able to get rent relief in one form or another from every landlord we have, over a dozen of them, except the one in NYC. They want full rent no matter what and are being very aggressive about it. Guess which is the ONE landlord that isn't getting a single penny of rent right now?
....Lol! Same here! Those greedy bastards won't be getting a dime from either one of us.Lol! Haven't paid rent in six months! I use that money instead to prep and buy groceries for me and my family and I finally fixed the hole in my bank account. Life is good now.✌🤓
Great video! I am in the process of moving from one city to another in July. I have already rented my new apartment , so I'm good, but the landlord of my current apartment have a lot of trouble in renting it. His plan when buying the building was to kick out everyone as soon as he could, so that he can rent later at a much higher price, but he has not seen the crysis coming. Now, he will have a lot of trouble in renting the spaces even just at their current price. No one shows up to rent it. Hope you are safe!
It's been a long crappy day for me, but hearing that this is happening to a landlord who planned to kick everyone out and jack up the rents brings a smile to my face!
Say I won 20 Mill in the lotto, Is it possible to buy a building out right so that I can control my rent amounts. Like if I buy an over priced commercial property outright can I not then lower the rent (value) to make it profitable again?
I think it's probably too late, but it wouldn't hurt to try a re-negotiated contract. Maybe for a few months. Too bad Louis isn't shopping around today. He could get his place for a lot less. On the other hand, he may not have moved because of this current crisis situation, although, he did have a deadline to get going.
@@jamesplotkin4674 his old place still has like 2-3 years of lease left, so he could probably stay, but I can't imagine going through with moving/construction in/directly after pandemic. Imagine how hard would it be to keep the store open in the old place too. 3 employees working there max and thats stretching it. Good thing he was able to get it open before it hit NYC.
@@MindBlowerWTF Yes, he's much better off in the new bigger place. He was really pushing his workers' faith by cramming 13 people into that hallway. But it's interesting to consider what he might do with the old place if he could afford paying both rents for a while.
Presume all you can do is keep the contacts available so you can be ready to swoop when the time comes? If rents drop that much is there much scope for existing tenants to request an alteration of the contract or do you think the recovery will be strong enough to preclude that?
Funny since I couldn't see the business opportunity since they didn't offer warehousing, storage, printing or any type of workshop and artist area. In other words they didn't offer anything that a Library, Hotel or even a Starbucks or McDonalds has to offer except a different environment.
Alan, can you tell me the logic behind landlords evicting tenants, who can't pay the rent in these scenarios? It seems counter productive. Who are they going to get to in there when they evict? How long will it take to find someone? To me, it makes sense that the landlord either gives them free rent, or a substantial discount off rent.
If they dont rent it it might be classed as bringing in loss, while if he is still renting it, he would probably have to pay tax on property, even if he can't collect rent - this might be the case.
As a possible content idea, I wonder if you'd have friends (or yourself} who could talk about how banks / finance / etc are/might come out changed from all this.
Interesting that the "Fat Cats of NYC Commercial RE" may have their "Pearl Harbor" moment soon. BTW, Hoping that you, Alan, can weather the storm and keep us informed !
GetSmart Paul In NYC, 1st Q 2020 saw office leasing down 46% from 1st Q 2019. One news outlet claimed that less than half the tenants in NYC paid their April rent in full. Their projection is that a quarter will pay May’s rent in full. I don’t remember the projection for June. However, the expectation is that a number of landlords will file bankruptcy.
Eviction proceedings in NYC have been frozen until June 20th. My guess is that they will be out by the end of 2020. In fact the Wall Street Journal published an article today about co-working no longer being a valid business model.
Interesting to hear how the commercial real estate market in NYC is reaching to the whole covid-19 lockdown bit... hope for the best, prepare for the worst!
Louis R. made the point that everyone has to hit the "pause" button except for landlords who still expect to be paid, either now or deferred. It makes for a very unfair, and very un-level playing field.
I'm a residential landlord. The problem for me is that the banks, taxing authorities, insurance companies, utilities, and repair supply companies aren't "pausing". If my tenant's water heater goes out, Home Depot isn't going to just give me a new water heater. If a tenant burns their house down, insurance won't pay unless I keep up with premiums. Moreover, all these "Small business" loans only work if you have employees. There's nothing for landlords.
@@avlisk I think the fundamental problem is that people still need to eat, still need electricity, water, etc. I suppose everyone could just pause and not do ANY work... many would starve, some would freeze, some would cook - we could let Darwin choose. But obviously that's not practical or feasible, and such an approach would take much longer to recover from. I think the idea with the stimulus money (we need more!) is that we still want as much economic activity as reasonably possible. It's a good thing for everyone (except me, I suppose) if I am able to replace an air conditioner when needed.
Regarding the Payroll Protection Program, are you sure you can't apply as an independent contractor? My S corporation issues distributions and issues me a 1099. I just applied for PPP this morning. My CPA has told me that the benefit would be calculated based on the 1099 income, plus health insurance and pension contribution. I am not an accountant, but you may want to double-check. On what grounds are you disqualified?
There is a Payroll Protection Program that allows sole proprietors with 1099 income to get a forgivable government loan. I actually applied today. Hopefully the government still has funds. I have heard funds (I think it was 350 million dollars) are almost exhausted. It will be the first time in my life I ever collect a cent from Uncle Sam!
A landlord that make space flexible or companies can rent space in area/boxes even by the hour could be a top of the wave normal landlord will undercut or outdo WeWork because modus operandi can be easily copied. Also, I see a lot of big companies going after they get the accountants on the job go, why are we paying so much for office space and esp overheads to run such space where we can get everyone to work from home move all the overheads cost to them etc - this be all down to money and money can be returned to shareholders
I agree with you. In order to lease empty spaces, landlords will need to be very flexible. Due to uncertainty, I see resistance by tenants to signing long term leases once buildings reopen. Perhaps landlords will offer short term leases with very little in the way of construction. Many employees may remain working from home, while those that go to the office will require more space due to social distancing.
Metro Manhattan Office Space, Inc. I’m thinking a landlord with several floors of vacant class c space, might convert those floors to small (150-200 square feet/one person) offices, to be leased on a daily/weekly/monthly basis. The lease flexibility of WeWork, but with the spacing that is currently recommended. (Think of the anonymous offices leased by Wall Street CEOs to escape to, when they needed uninterrupted time to work.)
Since this happened our deepest fears have been realized. I don't think even if the quarantines are lifted that people will want to crowd together like they used to, especially without a remedy or vaccine. Open businesses are making adjustments as best they can but I think a lot of traditional layouts and facilities are going to be bulldozed and replaced with something that's more virus spread resistant.
Im not sure, people in US knew the situation in Europe, yet that went out anyway and stayed in only once lockdown was in place, now You see the results of it sadly.
It's a lot cheaper to keep a tenant than get a new one. When things happen out of anyone's control. I think a solution could be mandated half rent and deferments. A good business could cover that in a year or two. To spread the hurt. So not just some feel the pain. Trouble is right now only some are feeling the pain. The leaders are not obeying the rules. It's not like they will run out of food.
That's very interesting, get your popcorn out when NYC tells Louis his new space could be restricted to ten employees.... Some one's going to be working in the basement :)
TheBrewjo Back in 2000, the building code where I lived, restricted the number of employees to the square footage used, divided by 200. Fifteen employees in a 3,000 square feet office. I don't know what the penalty for violating it was, but the assumption in HR was that the building would be red-tagged.
It's not the tenants' fault. Landlords should try punching up instead of down. Everybody suffers equally. We'll get through this if everybody plays fair.
![I.N "HALLUCINATION" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/n5B5q1Hwt_U/mqdefault.jpg)
Current events seem to have taken a toll on you too, Alan. Take care of yourself as well. We all appreciate the content you provide for us. Thank you.
Glad you are enjoying the videos! It is a pleasure to produce them and provides me with a welcome distraction.
@@MetroManhattanOfficeSpace Still. Stay safe and inside, please. We care!
Your voice seem a little faint/tired.. Hope you're getting good sleep!
Take care!
Great video once again, Thanks for sharing!
Hi Sherlock: Thanks for watching, glad you enjoyed the video. I see you are a regular on the channel. Where are you located?
@@MetroManhattanOfficeSpace Believe it or not sir , I am from a small Balkan country called Macedonia , in east Europe, i have no plans on visiting or buying property in the US ,But the sheer honestly i witnessed in the Rossmann videos surprised me . After further research i found the things you are saying in most of the videos quite interesting ,its fun to see / understand the mind of a broker / seller . Just wanted to let u know , u got people watching you from further than u might realize !
@@MetroManhattanOfficeSpace I live in Brazil, but also Europe. No plan to ever step in the US, but I find both you and your videos interesting. Same for Louis Rossmann's content. Your integrity brought me here and kept me here. Your insight is always very interesting.
@@MetroManhattanOfficeSpace I'm located Bangalore, in the other side of the world haha.. The whole city is locked down here too.. But people can see rare birds, peacocks and even deers in the outskirts of the city. It's crazy
Haven't watched in a while, but I see you've upped your production quality! Lighting, positioning, colour and sound are all great.
Regarding the actual content, now that I've finished watching; here in the Netherlands there was a heavy uptick in mortgage applications in the past month. I think a lot of people are realizing the econony is going to undergo a strong decline in the time to come, and want to profit from the low interest rates while they still can.
These are interesting times, not just on the short term but on the long term as well. Like you said, I also believe in the long term effects. Working from home is finding accellerated acceptance now. A government body here announced today (or yesterday) that the effects of the coronavirus and the lockdown on commute traffic might be noticable until 2025, based on economic and social impact. I believe the shape of our future is being changed drastically at this moment.
@@JoeyvanHummel Stay safe up there bud
Funny hearing the prognosis back then as compared to now. V-shaped recovery indeed!
Thanks again for an informative video!
I'm in Australia and reading NY Times and the article on the crash of department stores. Will be interesting to see who survives.
I have a question. The people who can afford to keep paying their lease through this are going to find they're now paying maybe double market value for the next 10 years of their lease term. What options are available for those people? What does it cost to get out of a lease agreement and could that be cheaper in the long run.
hmm i don't think you are going to pay double the market value. I think inflation will cancel it out. Banks are pumping lots of money into the economy, which will devalue the USD.
This channels premise just got a fuck ton more interesting! Looking forward to seeing your predictions
Very solid take on the future market. Teleworking is the future. Some workers may miss the office, but no one will miss the commute. The time, the stress, the smells and dangers of getting to work will be a thing of the past. Companies will love the savings of a smaller office space on their balance sheet or no office at all. Strike 2 for Manhattan is the current local political situation that led to the riots and is leading to a steep decline in the quality of life with increasing crime ,a revolving door with the no bail reform, closing Rikers & defunding NYPD. We can only hope for a positive change at the mayoral level in the next election.
Personally, I am not sure that staff will be as productive working outside the office and that people (being social) will not ultimately want to return to their offices once the health situation is under control.
I am more concerned by the political situation and the crippling of the NYPD, which in my opinion is sheer madness. Reduced crime rates in NYC in the last 20 years contributed to economic progress. Putting that in reverse risks everything.
Work was able to get rent relief in one form or another from every landlord we have, over a dozen of them, except the one in NYC. They want full rent no matter what and are being very aggressive about it. Guess which is the ONE landlord that isn't getting a single penny of rent right now?
....Lol! Same here! Those greedy bastards won't be getting a dime from either one of us.Lol! Haven't paid rent in six months! I use that money instead to prep and buy groceries for me and my family and I finally fixed the hole in my bank account. Life is good now.✌🤓
Thank you for your always interesting analysis. I agree that it will be a really fast recovery when things open up again.
Let's hope the recovery is soon!!! Thanks for watching!
Thanks for your videos. All the best for you and yours. Stay safe
Thanks for watching, stay well!!
Good video mate .. nice to see your feeling more comfortable Infront of the camera .... I enjoy your videos ... Cheers from Australia 😁
Appreciate your view on the matter.
Thanks this was very informative
Thank you for the update Alan and I am pleased to see that you are okay.
Great video! I am in the process of moving from one city to another in July. I have already rented my new apartment , so I'm good, but the landlord of my current apartment have a lot of trouble in renting it. His plan when buying the building was to kick out everyone as soon as he could, so that he can rent later at a much higher price, but he has not seen the crysis coming. Now, he will have a lot of trouble in renting the spaces even just at their current price. No one shows up to rent it. Hope you are safe!
It's been a long crappy day for me, but hearing that this is happening to a landlord who planned to kick everyone out and jack up the rents brings a smile to my face!
I think the speculative market in NYC will be very interesting to watch. Clearly, something will have to be renegotiated in the bubble.
Hey Alan i own and Bar in NYC do you l think i can get out of my lease .
Keep us updated!
Say I won 20 Mill in the lotto, Is it possible to buy a building out right so that I can control my rent amounts. Like if I buy an over priced commercial property outright can I not then lower the rent (value) to make it profitable again?
Louis should forcefully renegotiate his rental contract. F the landlords. Tell them to complain to their bankers. Love you Alan! Carry on.
I think it's probably too late, but it wouldn't hurt to try a re-negotiated contract. Maybe for a few months. Too bad Louis isn't shopping around today. He could get his place for a lot less. On the other hand, he may not have moved because of this current crisis situation, although, he did have a deadline to get going.
@@jamesplotkin4674 his old place still has like 2-3 years of lease left, so he could probably stay, but I can't imagine going through with moving/construction in/directly after pandemic. Imagine how hard would it be to keep the store open in the old place too. 3 employees working there max and thats stretching it. Good thing he was able to get it open before it hit NYC.
@@MindBlowerWTF Yes, he's much better off in the new bigger place. He was really pushing his workers' faith by cramming 13 people into that hallway. But it's interesting to consider what he might do with the old place if he could afford paying both rents for a while.
Stay healthy Alan!
Very sad to hear but I hope the future is bright for you! Well wishes
Presume all you can do is keep the contacts available so you can be ready to swoop when the time comes? If rents drop that much is there much scope for existing tenants to request an alteration of the contract or do you think the recovery will be strong enough to preclude that?
I suppose WeWork expanded too aggressively. I thought they had a great idea.
Funny since I couldn't see the business opportunity since they didn't offer warehousing, storage, printing or any type of workshop and artist area. In other words they didn't offer anything that a Library, Hotel or even a Starbucks or McDonalds has to offer except a different environment.
Alan, can you tell me the logic behind landlords evicting tenants, who can't pay the rent in these scenarios? It seems counter productive. Who are they going to get to in there when they evict? How long will it take to find someone? To me, it makes sense that the landlord either gives them free rent, or a substantial discount off rent.
If they dont rent it it might be classed as bringing in loss, while if he is still renting it, he would probably have to pay tax on property, even if he can't collect rent - this might be the case.
Great video, looking to you for updates on this markets segment going forward.
Trying to revive the commercial and office space real estate market is like trying to revive Tyrannosaurus Rex
Stay safe Alan, please do.
Nice work thanks for the update, for me my investment account looks as if i had a divorce..
I hope that under the suit jacket, you have jeans, track pants, or pjs on :)
Actually, I miss wearing a suit. It was nice wearing one for this video.
As a possible content idea, I wonder if you'd have friends (or yourself} who could talk about how banks / finance / etc are/might come out changed from all this.
Landlords depend in rental income boohoo that's their risk.
Interesting that the "Fat Cats of NYC Commercial RE" may have their "Pearl Harbor" moment soon. BTW, Hoping that you, Alan, can weather the storm and keep us informed !
GetSmart Paul In NYC, 1st Q 2020 saw office leasing down 46% from 1st Q 2019. One news outlet claimed that less than half the tenants in NYC paid their April rent in full. Their projection is that a quarter will pay May’s rent in full. I don’t remember the projection for June. However, the expectation is that a number of landlords will file bankruptcy.
HOPE FOR THE BEST!
Any bet on how many days we work has left in it? ..
Eviction proceedings in NYC have been frozen until June 20th. My guess is that they will be out by the end of 2020.
In fact the Wall Street Journal published an article today about co-working no longer being a valid business model.
Interesting to hear how the commercial real estate market in NYC is reaching to the whole covid-19 lockdown bit... hope for the best, prepare for the worst!
Louis R. made the point that everyone has to hit the "pause" button except for landlords who still expect to be paid, either now or deferred. It makes for a very unfair, and very un-level playing field.
I'm a residential landlord. The problem for me is that the banks, taxing authorities, insurance companies, utilities, and repair supply companies aren't "pausing". If my tenant's water heater goes out, Home Depot isn't going to just give me a new water heater. If a tenant burns their house down, insurance won't pay unless I keep up with premiums. Moreover, all these "Small business" loans only work if you have employees. There's nothing for landlords.
@@truthsmiles Thanks for the insight. It seems that everyone has to pause means everyone. I don't know how that would be done.
@@avlisk I think the fundamental problem is that people still need to eat, still need electricity, water, etc. I suppose everyone could just pause and not do ANY work... many would starve, some would freeze, some would cook - we could let Darwin choose. But obviously that's not practical or feasible, and such an approach would take much longer to recover from. I think the idea with the stimulus money (we need more!) is that we still want as much economic activity as reasonably possible. It's a good thing for everyone (except me, I suppose) if I am able to replace an air conditioner when needed.
@@truthsmiles you are a small business of one, or maybe 2 if you're married
Regarding the Payroll Protection Program, are you sure you can't apply as an independent contractor?
My S corporation issues distributions and issues me a 1099. I just applied for PPP this morning. My CPA has told me that the benefit would be calculated based on the 1099 income, plus health insurance and pension contribution.
I am not an accountant, but you may want to double-check. On what grounds are you disqualified?
Hope you are doing and you were able to secure a loan as you can't do business.
There is a Payroll Protection Program that allows sole proprietors with 1099 income to get a forgivable government loan. I actually applied today. Hopefully the government still has funds. I have heard funds (I think it was 350 million dollars) are almost exhausted.
It will be the first time in my life I ever collect a cent from Uncle Sam!
@@MetroManhattanOfficeSpace I hope it works out for you!
A landlord that make space flexible or companies can rent space in area/boxes even by the hour could be a top of the wave normal landlord will undercut or outdo WeWork because modus operandi can be easily copied. Also, I see a lot of big companies going after they get the accountants on the job go, why are we paying so much for office space and esp overheads to run such space where we can get everyone to work from home move all the overheads cost to them etc - this be all down to money and money can be returned to shareholders
I agree with you. In order to lease empty spaces, landlords will need to be very flexible. Due to uncertainty, I see resistance by tenants to signing long term leases once buildings reopen. Perhaps landlords will offer short term leases with very little in the way of construction.
Many employees may remain working from home, while those that go to the office will require more space due to social distancing.
Metro Manhattan Office Space, Inc. I’m thinking a landlord with several floors of vacant class c space, might convert those floors to small (150-200 square feet/one person) offices, to be leased on a daily/weekly/monthly basis. The lease flexibility of WeWork, but with the spacing that is currently recommended. (Think of the anonymous offices leased by Wall Street CEOs to escape to, when they needed uninterrupted time to work.)
i think he talking about the Red Cows who flee Japonaise - if you follow . . .
and how they stuck their cashew nuts in the Bowery -
their mortgage insurance just hit a titanic -
it's called a half prim -
bada-bing bada-boom -
they have a ordinance now in the periphery of Laketree Inn -
Maybe this will stop the horrible stupid open office trend
That it will. High density, open plan office space is a thing of the past.
I hate RUclips algorithm. I never get you in my subscription box!
I am sorry to hear to that these videos are not appearing in subscribers subscription box!!! Is there anything I can do to influence the algorithm?
Since this happened our deepest fears have been realized. I don't think even if the quarantines are lifted that people will want to crowd together like they used to, especially without a remedy or vaccine. Open businesses are making adjustments as best they can but I think a lot of traditional layouts and facilities are going to be bulldozed and replaced with something that's more virus spread resistant.
Im not sure, people in US knew the situation in Europe, yet that went out anyway and stayed in only once lockdown was in place, now You see the results of it sadly.
It's a lot cheaper to keep a tenant than get a new one. When things happen out of anyone's control. I think a solution could be mandated half rent and deferments. A good business could cover that in a year or two. To spread the hurt. So not just some feel the pain. Trouble is right now only some are feeling the pain. The leaders are not obeying the rules. It's not like they will run out of food.
That's very interesting, get your popcorn out when NYC tells Louis his new space could be restricted to ten employees.... Some one's going to be working in the basement :)
TheBrewjo Back in 2000, the building code where I lived, restricted the number of employees to the square footage used, divided by 200. Fifteen employees in a 3,000 square feet office. I don't know what the penalty for violating it was, but the assumption in HR was that the building would be red-tagged.
The bubbles should collapse and we should get back a normal economy with 400$ per rent, not 4000$.
That's exactly what I've been thinking since this flu started.
Good bye wework!
It's not the tenants' fault. Landlords should try punching up instead of down. Everybody suffers equally. We'll get through this if everybody plays fair.