Where Will China’s Economy Go in 2024?
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- Опубликовано: 8 июл 2024
- China’s economy is infused into every aspect of the U.S.-China relationship. With tighter U.S. export controls on chips, new technology developments in China, a slowdown in consumer activity, rising electric vehicle competition, and prickly government relations, the Chinese and American economies were inextricably linked in 2023. What will happen in 2024 as the U.S. presidential election brings more uncertainty to U.S.-China relations? Understanding where China’s macroeconomic trends are heading - and how they may affect American consumers - is crucial to managing other areas of the bilateral relationship.
Economists are split on whether the Chinese economy is stable or on the edge of a debt crisis. In this program on March 14, 2024, National Committee President Stephen Orlins joins Amy Celico and Barry Naughton to help make sense of different economic and policy projections for China’s economy in 2024 (and beyond).
0:00 Introduction
1:24 What does the Two Sessions tell us about the Chinese economy?
5:36 Is China's 5% growth rate realistic?
7:04 Can we trust Chinese economic data?
12:44 U.S. elections and the possibility of Trump tariffs
16:22 Biden vs Trump: who's tougher on China?
17:28 Do U.S. trade restrictions really affect China?
20:55 What should China do to turn its economy around?
28:39 A message for pro-constructive engagement China watchers
About the speakers: www.ncuscr.org/event/chinas-e...
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It is hilarious listening to these American economists recommending that China adopt the same disastrous policies practised in the West that have delivered deindustrialisation, low growth, massive debts etc. China is following a new path of investing to move its manufacturing up the value chain and become technology leaders. I think this has an excellent chance of succeeding.
How much does Shee pay you, Miss Shill?
I think the US economic data is even more untrustworthy...how many times have the unemployment and CPI rates been "corrected" weeks later when attention to them been diverted? elsewhere?
I think you're wrong because the U.S. data comes from many different independent sources. In China if you say the economy isn't doing so great, you get disappeared😂 They just passed a law making it illegal for anyone to say anything negative about the Chinese economy. They started arresting all the audit firms that did independent research in China. I'm sure their economy is doing great if they have to arrest anyone that says anything bad about them😂🤣 Really "trustworthy" 😂Just like when their unemployment stats went over 25% they just stopped posting the data and made it illegal. 😂 So "trustworthy"
Li Keqiang himself said the Chinese data was "man made and shouldn't be relied upon"
Wrong again. US data is internationally reviewed and acknowledged. 700 million Chinese earn less than $3000 per year. Stop drinking water with lead, I think you have brain damage.
“Adjusted” downwards in the case of GDP and upwards in the case of inflation 😅
As opposed to completely fabricated? Li Keqiang himself said chinas GDP numbers are “man made” before he was murdered
I understand why Naughton has his view on the 5% target. however while chinese consumption did not grow, but it was the same last year, while the negative last year like the property crash has already happen, the market can't crash twice. unless a 3rd conflict occurs somewhere in the world, even if they coast, i do think 5% is possible as China move up the value chain. the number of Chinese cars in the Asian market will continues to grow as Japan run out of steam... like a year ago, no one heard of BYD in malaysia, today, if you mention BYD, they will not only know what it is, they can even identify the model as they drive pass the road.
and with US election undecided, it is logical for China to keep it policy firepower unused until they know what they are dealing with.
His analysis of China is politically correct for America.
Chinese need to be aware of the rising risk dealing or investing in US.
Chinese investors need to have plans and strategy to hedge themselves or completely exit strategy.
With the majority of the world economies as China's 1st or 2nd major trading partners, American business should be asking, what have they missed.
China has not denied them the opportunities, rather it's Washington establishment that grounded American businesses.
To understand the Chinese people, you have to understand some Confucianism basics,
Honor and trust.
The latest Chinese CPI number is 0.7% for Feb. Power usage for Jan, Feb grew 11% from same time 2023. Export increased by 7%. A rebound in New Year spending. So it does look like the Chinese economy is doing ok.
Ahh yea another glass heart wumao that can't accept anything negative about China😂 It's okay, soon China won't be able to hide their ponzi scheme economy. The entire civilized world is starting to decouple from China. In 2-3 years they can build all the ghost cities and bridges to nowhere that they want, but it won't help their fake GDP numbers😂😂
More bullshit numbers. China is doomed.
Why are there so many western China experts who spent a live time studying China and can't get 1 thing right about China?🤣
Because arrogant
Lol, why are all Chinese people such glass heart Wumaos that can't accept any criticism on China? Every time anyone that says anything other than China is great, they must be wrong and racist. No other explanation because China is perfect in every way 😆😁. If you listen to the CCP propaganda, whenever something goes wrong in China it's the fault of the U.S. When something goes right, it's the CCP.😂🤣It's funny how the CCP says they are so strong and the U.S. can't keep them down and with the same breath they cry about the U.S. sanctions or trade war😂 So strong, yet the U.S. slaps them around all the time and they do nothing about it because they can't do anything😂 The U.S. lives rent free in Xi's head 😂😂
It’s like studying women and how to date them your entire life and never trying to meet or talk to them.
Lol, "study women". That's the most Chinese way of thinking about something. I guess when you're 5ft 5 inches tall and can't grow a beard women don't come naturally and you have to "study" them😂🤣😆 @@HanS662
Because they're all wearing red glasses and had little too much red drink.
All these chinese expert are based in USA who have never been to china and living on a paycheck of USA 500 million$ anti - china program 😂
Should China listen to advice from US economists ? Just look at what happened to Russia after the Cold War.
China UP US down down down
In the wake of the Francis Scott Key Bridge debacle only a institution whose board of directors are financialists and industrialists , many with significant links to Trump, could bluster their way through a criticism of China's commitment to publicly funded resilient infrastructure. This organization might provide more value to the USA by discussing why our infrastructure investment is lagging behind China's and what we can learn from China's economic examples.
We have so many problems domestically here in the US, eagerly waiting for solutions.
Why are you guys so nosy and love to meddle with other countries’ affairs?
China will go one better than USA in 2024. 2024 is the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China as well as an auspicious Year of the Dragon in the Chinese zodiac. So there will be measures in pace to ensure growth higher than the 4.6 per cent projected by the IMF. Just watch the Q1 growth which will be better than expected (projected at 4 per cent by Nomura) and will be 5 per cent or higher. Th momentum will be sustained for the whole year, which will be another good year for China.
I think the magnificent seven are valued at 13 trillian dollars they will crash like the tech crash in 2000 it coming just over valued and a bubble and it coming
Real estate sector in China has been collapsing for how long now?
Let's see if Barry Naughton's words will age well in a few years time.
Unlikely, since, for instance, he had failed to acknowledge the fourth industrial revolution of the PRC, and the STEM renaissance that which is underway at the moment in the PRC. Such is analogous to failing to acknowledge the industrial revolution in the United Kingdom during the late 18th-century - for the Qing Dynasty to fail to acknowledge the industrial revolution which was underway in the United Kingdom during the late 18th-century is to continue the arrogance of the Manchurian ruling elites.
Today, the arrogance of a certain "elite" class in the West is becoming particularly defeaning.
Wow sinologists views 30:36
Lol, funny Westerners....
no one talk about negative effects of sanctions , protectionism on America. Stock market doing great, technology shares doing great. But America is not doing great in green energy, EV, climate, distribution of wealth. middle class not doing great.
China has greater capacity to eat bitter.....and this will see China through
Fake expert
Cost of living is not working well in America but working well in China
All claimed to be expert on China's economy, etc... 😂 But talk nonsense, delusional and out of touch with reality
I don't believe decoupling has no cost on America
at least CCP is doing their best....not sure about American leaders.